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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  September 12, 2012 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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over a five-year period. this is not going to be an easy fix. you can bring in the best deal in the world, not going to make a difference. >> incredible start. always good to see you. have a great time watching the apple announcement later on today. let's get back to hq with the "fast money" halftime. and carl, thanks so much. welcome to halftime, four hours to go until the close. and here's where we stand. we are in the green across the boards. take a look at the dow, 13,349, and s&p and nasdaq playing along today, as well. here's what we're following on "halftime" today, zuckerberg goes public, did facebook's face deliver? is it time to deliver the stock? and is qe-3 coming? and what will it mean for the rally? but first, our top story, less than one hour to go until apple unveils its highly anticipated iphone 5. the stock keeps going higher, but are expectations growing too
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high for america's most loved company? we're trading all of these stories with pete najarian, joe ts teranova. is it going to pull back? >> well, there's a chance of it. i mean, if you're looking at the options right now. the options are signaling people are expecting a big move. look at the volatility of options that expires tomorrow, by the way, and you're expecting about, call it a $19 move right now in that stock based on what we're going to see today. what are we going to see today? do we not know what they're going to release? they've given us all the information we need to know, the iphone 5. it's a matter of when this hits the stores, how successful this launch is going to be. this is going to be a phone we're not going to be able to see in the earnings, immediately, obviously, but i think well over 40 million in the first quarter it's released. >> guys, it's going to meet expectations or is it going to
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disappoint? >> you hope it disappoints, is what it comes down to. >> so you have an opportunity to get in? >> exactly. >> it happens all the time. how many times do you have people say i'm looking for the pullback to get in the shares. it's happened a number of times and it looks far too scary to get in. that's your opportunity. $19, $20, you're sort of praying you get that move down, i don't know, whatever it is, $640, $650, close your eyes and get in. as it runs to the upside, is it too late? yeah, probably for a trade. but i think the real hope is they miss expectations, they say something disappointing, doesn't live up to what people are hoping. stock falls off, again, buying opportunity. >> joe, are our viewers going to get and our trading viewership, are they going to get an opportunity to get into this stock today? >> cheaper than it is right now, yeah, most likely. it's a proxy for the overall market itself. the market's in need of a correction, apple's in need of a correction.
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the fundamentals suggest you want to buy it. i agree with what they're saying here on a pullback. i also think you want to look at the options market here. you want to utilize the options market. i'm long apple stock, protecting myself with apple 655 puts which expire in upcoming weeks. but, again, looking forward, tell me what the numbers are going to be in january, tell me what the numbers are going to be in april of 2013 on iphone sales. that i they're going to be off the charts, expand, that's why you're buying it. >> i would say one thing. sorry, i know we'll get to simon, but the problem with buying them recently is, you are buying now that the storm is in front -- >> when you say buying them -- >> you can't be buying puts now because now you're paying an absolute premium. you're buying those puts right in front of the hurricane that's coming in front of you. you need to be positioned before today, before yesterday, before this week. you couldn't be buying now because you're paying an excess premium. we're talking about implied volatilities in the 40s in the
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weeklies, in the mid-30s in the rest of the month. and you're talking normally volatility's closer to the low 20s. you've got to be correct on that volatility right now otherwise you're going to be in a hurting. >> and i think, first of all, i'll make the argument to you, pete, in essence the volatility suggests you have to buy it because it is so high. but we talked the other day, buying apple puts somewhere around 670, 655, you were paying $7. i just see this proper risk management to go out and own those puts. and you hope in essence they go out worthless. they're not bad points, you're a smart trader if you're betting that the stock is going to go down after a big product announcement because as you'll see right from this shot here, that's what the stock has done after the last two phone announcements, at least initially, though, it is worth pointing out that three weeks after the launch of the iphone 4s, the stock was up 4.5%, though it did fall some 6.5%.
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that raises the interesting question, pete, what's going to buck the trend this time? and why would that happen? >> i think you have to look at this implied volatility, that's the key element here, are you paying too much? unless you get a $20 move, you have paid too much for this protection in the near term. and i'm talking a $20 move by tomorrow. those are the options that expire tomorrow. you want to go out to the next september or the october option, now you're talking about even far more premium. that's why i'm saying you've got to be careful. even if we get a couple of percent to the downside in apple, these volatilities are not giving you the kind of volatility that's only for a couple percent move. >> simon baker, everyone wants to believe the stock is going higher, isn't apple poised for a misstep at some point? the odds says it has to happen at some point. >> you haven't missed a beat yet, there's no reason to think they would. but i agree with guy and joe, i think it's time for a pause and refresh right here.
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historically look at how they've traded going into a new product cycle has generally popped down in terms of anticipation. it's up 3% year-to-date, there's a lot of anticipation. if you look at it technically, it's been trading in a range of 680, 660. if you own the stock and you're long, hold on to this bad boy, it's going to go higher. but if you've missed a beat and looking for an opportunity, you'll get it in the next few days. >> one of the top-rated analysts on the street, joining us now. tony, give us your expectation here. can apple live up to the hype, to the bar that keeps going higher? >> look, i think longer term, apple's a relatively inexpensive stock and there's still a market that's underpenetrated. longer term, i think there's lots of opportunity for appreciation in the stock. in the near term, i agree with the panel. you know, we've looked at the last five iphone launches, we've looked at ipad launches, and the
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pattern is pretty predictable. the stock runs up until about a week before the announcement, generally underperforms in the period one week before the announcement to one week after. and then generally it's pretty tepid for the following six weeks thereafter. that's been the pattern, you should start to see it again this week and that's what i expect. what's happened is the blogs have been becoming increasingly more efficient about knowing what's coming up. so apple's ability to deliver something different, in terms of products, release dates, or rollout schedule, becomes increasingly difficult, again, because i think knowledge about apple has become more widespread and reporting in blogs on it have become increasingly accurate. >> we talk about whisper numbers when it comes to earnings. is there a whisper feature, if you will, surrounding the iphone 5? is there something out there that the street's quietly talking about that this thing
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could have that could truly take it to the next level? >> certainly some of the numbers being batted around are -- could next quarter calendar q-4 deliver 50 million iphones? i think 45% to 50% is the number that the buy side has talked skbt thought about. in context of the first full quarter of the last product launch that was 37 million, that doesn't feel completely unattainable. i would also add there is some near term impact. so last -- for the last iphone, they sold 4 million in the first three days on the launch weekend. we think it's not impossible that if they launch the same seven countries they did on launch weekend this time around, they could do 7 million phones including preorders over the course of friday, saturday, sunday. so i think those are the kinds of numbers that are, are around the buy side in terms of expectations. >> what about a feature?
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is it lte connectivity? what's out there that apple can do to upgrade this phone to take it to that next level? to exceed the highest of high expectations? >> i think it's very difficult. you know, again, expectations are a larger screen, thinner phone, lte, ios decks, these are all fully baked into people's expectations. at the margin you say, could there be another siri, could there be another face time? could there be another ipad cover? all of those things were not previewed widely or certainly not broadly expected. and so could there be something on the software functionality side that apple does, you know, that's possible. but in terms of a game-changing device, increasingly, the iphone has not been the best single device out from a hardware perspective. it's really apple's platform and the software that apple wraps
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around it that has made the phone as successful as it is. >> we raised the issue of lte connectivity. there's a link on apple's website, tony, which seems to suggest that that could be in the cards. we'll have to wait and see, obviously, for what happens at 1:00 in the east when that phone is unveiled. >> thanks, tony. so the -- so built into your model, how can they if at all. is it one of these things clear sailing, or is there something on the horizon that could derail these guys? >> yeah, so there are a couple of things i worry about. first, the product has to be good. i mean, people forget that the iphone 4 had an antenna issue. and so these are incredibly complicated products, there are going to be a lot of new components here. so apple has to make sure that the product is, you know, works well from a software perspective and from a hardware perspective.
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and it has to make sure it can ramp production appropriately. there have been worries about processor availability at 28 nanometer processor availability, there have been worries about the new display technology and whether that yield is there. so point one is, they have to be able to deliver the product that works and they have to be able to deliver it in sufficient quantities. >> tony, got to run. but just quickly, and we raise this the last time i think you were on, you do have an outperform on the stock, you have a hefty price target on the stock, as well, but you do sound a little bit more cautious than those facts might suggest. you've even wondered in the past with us here on this very show that apple could miss its numbers in the next quarter, is that right? >> yes, and -- but quite frankly, that was for last quarter and they did miss it, and i think on a go-forward basis because most estimates have not included the iphone for this quarter, i feel quite comfortable with estimates.
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the he hsitanc hasitancy is ove long-term. >> thanks so much. appreciate it as always. >> my pleasure. >> talk you again soon. a market flash, lots moving today besides apple. >> absolutely. and mentioning apple, of course, there's a lot of talk out there. stop for a second and pause. take a look at google shares. a stealth rally up more than 20% in the last three months alone, and holding its own against the iphone with android, a significant share in the u.s. and a $20 price target bump yesterday. 770's their target. >> this is the stealth rally, no one's been talking about it except us. >> right. >> we keep talking about it. the stock has outpaced apple, i think, over the last three months. >> it has absolutely performed. you look at google and they seem to be doing most everything right. and obviously they've gotten themselves positioned very well with android. when that turns that into something far more profitable, then look out. that's the next leg that i think
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could really push google to the next leg up higher. >> who are you watching? >> same world. yahoo is still putting it on a risk/reward, in the quarter 15.40, that's what's interesting for me. so you're looking for $20 on the upside. i'll make that trade every day and it's given no indication that it does not want to hold these levels and continue to go higher. i like yahoo here. >> all right, the athlete jumping in the water on that one. up next, the results of the cnbc exclusive fed survey. a look as to ben bernanke could deliver a third round of quantitative easing. more "halftime report" is coming up next.
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all right. welcome back. anticipation continues to build in the markets as the s&p hits a new year high. but will ben bernanke deliver tomorrow? our senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us with the
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exclusive results from his exclusive fed survey. >> our survey. it's your survey, everybody's. >> the people's. >> the people's survey. 58 peoples were surveyed or responded. >> people. >> yeah, that works. like the peoples of southeast asia or something like that. that works. so 58 surveyed economists, strategists, and bernanke had, i guess, better delivery, really. if you look at what the results are. take a look at the chart. we go back to 2010 with the ventu survey, and only once before have we been up in the 90% and on the eve of qe-2, you can see the jump from 78% to 90% from the july survey. and here we are again, 93% to 99% was where we were back on the eve of qe-2. how much are they -- when do they think it's going to happen? 77% of those surveyed think of those who think it's going to happen think it'll happen in september. that number was 56%. >> that means tomorrow. >> that would be after tomorrow's meeting.
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now, how much? 510 billion. what's interesting about that, it's pretty much in line with where we've been. but when you look at it in a monthly way, it's $42 billion a month over 12 months. qe-2 was $75 billion, qe-1 was $175 billion. and by the way, they expected more on a month-to-month basis as they do as a lump sum announcement. but they don't think it's going to do very much good. asked if qe would lower the unemployment rate, 59% call it 60, no. 59% saying it won't help. and one other thing we want to show you is this really interesting movement for when the fed will hike rates. take a look here the july compared to the september survey. look at what's happened, 18% of the survey responded saying the fed will not hike rates until 2016. and obviously they think the guidance will change tomorrow, as well. what's interesting about that, if you do some very quick math,
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when did they move the rate down to zero? you guys remember? >> i'm guessing. >> 28 months ago. >> 2008. was that -- i don't know that's longer, right? so if you put that chart back up, guys. just -- >> it sounded like a good number. >> let's say the 18% are right and we go to 2016 before the fed hikes rates, that would be eight years we'll be at the zero balance. >> a couple points here. >> that's huge in my mind. >> so the respondents don't think that qe-3 is going to do anything. is everybody smarter than the fed chairman at this point? he wouldn't do it if he didn't think it would have an effect. and he clearly believes that he can have an impact and the fomc can have an impact on the struggling labor market, right? >> i'm going to assume, scott, that the question is everybody's smarter than the fed is a rhetorical question. >> yeah, it is. i mean, why do you think there's such a negative opinion of whether it can work. the fed chairman clearly thinks it can. >> here's what i think, i think the conclusion that qe has
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helped is essentially a counterfactual conclusion. you've got to say that this lackluster growth would be more lackluster in the absence of qe. i think people are getting tired of that counterfactual calculation and saying you know what? we've given this a chance right now. and the frustration is building among those who think -- who have supported it. >> let's talk more about the federal reserve, what could happen, we're joined by the global head of economics at morgan stanley. he joins us on the fast line. sir, i hope you've been listening to the conversation. what are your expectations for tomorrow? does mr. bernanke deliver more quantitative easing? >> well, i think it's a much closer call than what your survey suggests and what price into markets. i think the chance of qe-3 already tomorrow is only about 50/50. as if i can't make up my mind, but i think there are clear pros
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and cons. i think the pros are, first of all, there's what i call this bbb economic expansion is becoming ever more bumpy. we saw that in the ism and the payrolls last week. and also the fed clearly misses on both parts of the mandate. unemployment is high, inflation is headed below 2% soon. these are the pros. but what are the arguments again? well, first of all, financial conditions have eased recently, they have not tightened as they did before the last two rounds of quantitative easing. so we have easier financial conditions and largely due to europe getting better. and the second reason in there, i think is the main argument against qe-3 tomorrow is that the fed wants to stay out of the election campaign. this is why i think there's a 50/50 chance they do it. they may want to wait. >> isn't there a danger from the other side there, if the data show that the fed is missing on its target, especially
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unemployment, is it not acting and inserting itself into the election in another way? >> well, that's -- i think you're right. but that's why they will do something else, whether that's enough is a different question. but i think they will ease tomorrow in the sense they will attempt guidance into 2015. it's arguable this is not expected. it should be priced in. but this way they can justify they are doing something. >> joe, do you have a question? >> yes, i do, and it's either for steve or joachim. you've got the anticipation of qe-3, the decline, isn't that problematic? because you've got a value of a euro currency rising at a time they need the cheapest currency. >> why don't you take that? >> oh, yeah. it's right. the fed action has unintended consequences for others. and it's not only stronger euro,
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we've also seen upward pressure on emerging market currencies in the past. i think emerging markets at this point or many countries would not want to see their currencies appreciating. plus their growth is suffering. but these are the unintended consequences. i don't think this is a consideration for the fed. i think the fed wants to do what's right for the u.s. economy. >> steve, what affect does the stock market have on the fed's decision-making process right now? we're at 4 1/2-year highs, the dow, s&p, nasdaq has performed, as well. does that take pressure off for the fed to act? >> i think the other way around. i think our survey and i know the fed does its own survey, as well, very similar, some overlap in terms responding. that's responsible for where the market is right now it's not earnings outlooks which have basically been coming down. bernanke sees the market as a major conduit for spreading
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wealth, and perhaps consumer spending, as well. so he wants to keep asset prices and equity asset prices elevated. so to the extent that he needs to fulfill the market expectation. and if he's right, it's only 50/50 he has more latitude. if the survey is right and it's 90%, you have a lot less latitude. >> joachim, is it possible that others around the world can take, again, some of the onus off of the fed chairman to feel he has to do something more big right now? >> i think what's happened in europe with the ecb action and the market response that has helped bernanke. i think it takes the pressure off a little bit. this is why i said earlier, you know, monetary and especially financial conditions also in the u.s. have eased -- and this is due to europe getting better. that's another reason for not being overly optimistic on the prospects of qe-3 tomorrow. >> we're on the heels of the olympics. i'll give you an analogy.
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can they keri strug then landing a couple years from now? are you confident they could bring it forth and -- >> and keep with the keri strug thing, it might be a painful landing. >> assuming she was hurt in the first place, but that's a completely different story. >> and kurt schilling didn't really have blood in his sock either -- >> let the man ask the question. >> the edit to your question is the way i would answer it. they can control inflation, they can do an exit strategy. but whether or not it ultimately causes another recession in the economy is probably the open question. how strong it is, what it would mean to sequester those reserves and how much that would hurt banking and lending. i would like to point out that our survey showed a little bit of -- what's the right way to put it? taking off the -- the euro zone is going to break apart and some
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of the probabilities of default for some of the troubled countries out there. we're still at ridiculously high levels, but off the worst levels. by the way, you can see it on if i can put a plug in there. >> you certainly can. everyone check that out. steve, as always, joachim, grateful for your time today. one more quick question. steve, is fed action priced into the market here or not? >> i think it started to get priced into the market. but what the market's running off of is the eu and china last week. if you look at what reacted last week, take a look at coal, copper, they haul moved to the upside. caterpillar's up by 6% in the last five or six days, there's a lot of reasons now, i think mr. bernanke can sit back and there's less pressure on him. >> -- expectations and what? the market sells off or rallies? >> i'll tell you -- >> we've got to run. >> the only bigger sale right now the marketplace is just
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continuing to do what they did. i would sell the euro, they need the cheapest currency. >> cnbc is airing special coverage at 12:15 p.m. eastern tomorrow. guests include william danoff. and still to come, tracking gold and treasuries. and mark zuckerberg out from under his hoodie, addresses investors for the first time since the ipo. we'll get reaction from the shareholder. did he deliver? and we're in countdown mode to the apple iphone event. we'll be right back. how do you know which ones to follow? the equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent research providers into a single score that's weighted based on how accurate they've been in the past. i'm howard spielberg of fidelity investments.
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welcome back to "halftime" as we make the turn, only about 30 minutes to go until apple's big announcement. apple isn't the only way to play. the top derivative picks. what's your best pick? >> we talk about this all the time. everything ending in com yesterday, i'll specifically mention one, and i think it's qualcomm. it's a painful stock to own at times. it has precipitous drops. we've seen it over the last
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couple of years. but also if you've held on to this one, you've been rewarded and you're going to continue to be rewarded. if by some miracle apple sells off, you'll probably see the same thing happen in qualcomm. every so often this stock of meaningful percentage has been an opportunity. i think it's going to happen again. qualcomm for me is the best way to play the eco system. >> tell me more about why you like verizon. >> let me say i was wrong about the inclusion of nfc technology in the iphone 5, but i think the focus will be on long-term resolution, lte and 4g. the clear cut winners, number one, verizon, they have outspent their competition over the last several years. they by far have a bigger network than all of their competitors combined. and just to piggyback on what guy said, they are the providers of 3g, certainly they're going to be the chip set providers of 4g. >> why do you like it? >> well, just take a look at this thing. you want to talk about performance and put this up against apple. you can see the comparison of what a company that really does
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have a lot of reliance on apple. as a matter of fact, 2012, 62% of the revenues derived from apple. that number continues to increase since 2010. they're getting into audio, more into the energy space. when you're talking about this particular chip company, they are traded about a 14 forward pe right now, still very cheap. i think there's plenty of upside to go. >> simon baker, give me the tech. >> there's a lot of talk about change in apple. but also to joe's point with the lg and everything coming on and speeds getting faster and faster and connective. the network's getting busier and busier, so companies to help with the unclogging are also going to benefit in there. >> all right. gold is trading at six-month highs after a german court says the bailout fund could move forward. now traders are turning their attention to the announcement. jeff, good to see you as always, gold's been running up
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exclusively probably because of the expectation of more easing. does it continue? >> absolutely, judge. and i think folks are seeing here in chicago that ben bernanke to break it down in football terms is going to absolutely deliver some form of additional measures tomorrow, therefore gold's going to continue to surge. >> what if it doesn't happen? >> well, then you have to cut bait and run. but right now we are seeing, you know, overnight, you saw that 1750, and you break that down, the reason we're really moving is the dollar, the u.s. dollar's getting crushed in anticipation of big banks bringing it tomorrow. but i think overall you're seeing the silver. since july 31st, august 31st at jackson hole, we've seen $100 move in gold. $1934 was last august/september's high. technically we're going there. >> you must expect treasury to sell off if gold goes up and qe-3 does happen. >> i do see a selloff. but right now, short-term, we're focused on a ten-year auction,
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we've got $21 billion here and less than 25 minutes. but i think the big picture, we're still hunkered down under 2% and it's all about the fed's guidance. one of the key metrics i learned here in the bond pickets in the late 90s here in chicago was the fed's balance sheet. and until those balance sheets actually drained, not implode to the upside, until they drained, we will not see rates go higher, judge. >> all right. >> thanks for the view from the pit. up next, it's facebook ceo mark zuckerberg delivers. did he tell investors what they wanted to hear yesterday in his first public comment since the ipo? the stock's gotten a nice lift. speaking of stocks, look at how apple's trading ahead of its big announcement about 25 1/2 minutes to go here before apple is expected to announce its iphone 5, stock has dipped into negative territory here, but the anticipation is only rising.
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welcome back to the halftime report. a market flash here on the home builders, they're on a tare today.
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toll brothers trading at levels not seen since february of 2007. lennar not since july of 2007. and moving the most from an upgrade from williams financial. and also the index at the highest level since april 2008. scott? >> thanks. just when you thought the home builders couldn't go any higher. >> i like the home builders. the suppliers, nice 2.1% yield, and a growth company, strong tie, which builds the materials and engineering. so any pop in new housing in california, they're going to do well. continue to be long the house and building supplies. >> do you buy the home builders here? >> you look at housing and the expansion of units and look at something in the insurance space. performing very well. travel's traded to a 52-week high today. that's the next leg of the recovery cycle in housing. >> just keep your eye on whirlpool. this continues to go higher and higher, had a few selloffs, they had to retract some of the
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numbers, lowered some of the numbers. still trades in a dirt cheap, now they're bigger into home depot in a bigger way. >> before you said that, on joe's point, on the insurance stocks, many rising to a 52-week high today, prudential among them, lnc, up 1% today, metlife having a good day and, of course, aig which has been very much in the news this week, as well. talk about another stock that i think a few people care about, that being facebook. shares getting a pop today after ceo mark zuckerberg spoke publicly for the first time last night. did he deliver? bob peck is a facebook shareholder, and he said mr. zuckerberg needed to address a number of issues. bob, you told us yesterday what you wanted to hear, did you get what you wanted? >> thanks again for having me. at my company corise, we do a lot of thinking about facebook and the ramifications to the digital media ecosystem, so we paid close attention yesterday. there were three key things b on why he did deliver. you know, one, over half the
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conversation was about mobile. clearly they're very focused on mobile, also very humble talking about past mistakes in mobile. but they have a whole team they're dedicated to getting mobile right. and that's the future and where the growth is coming from. so very, very important. number two is search. he basically made a product announcement yesterday and said he had a team working on search. and while it may be natural search, it tends to follow you'll have some sort of monetization of it. and the monetization is usually high margin. i don't think a lot of people picked up on this point, when they asked him, what are you particularly focused on? he said the open grass. and the open grass is what we've talked about on this show. that's what allows future services down the road just description services, video, spotify, games and app centers. and once again, very, very high-margin services. so the fact that the ceo is focused on the open grass, having facebook become your online identity across the entire internet is huge for the
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company in the long-term prospects. >> did you add to shares after you got the discussion yesterday with zuckerberg? >> no, i have a full position in facebook right now. >> joe, do you have a question? >> yeah, bob, when you look at the multiple choice component of the exam, he aced it, clearly, but got the written component, which is how do you monetize the mobile strategy and the question becomes he trades at a valuation richer than his peers. what did he tell you yesterday that's different than how others in the space can monetize mobile? >> well, he did throw out some stats there. he did say that the monetization and the engagement seeing oen the mobile side is twice that of what they see on the desk topside. so you've got a pricing component, engagement component, which is going to help out the monetization side of it. mobile's only part of the story. the two other things we talked about also is search, which is almost pure margin, right? as well as the whole open graphics of the additional services which are almost all pure margin. >> thanks for coming back on and talking facebook. we'll catch you again soon.
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>> thanks for having me. >> pete -- >> i've been owning it. it's been painful. >> did it pay off? >> yeah. >> did he tell you what you wanted to hear? >> the other night, i was the only guy left on the desk who liked facebook on monday night. >> your brother railed against it. >> we're going against each other again, brother versus brother. but the fact they actually addressed mobile in a much better way, got me more convinced. but also, it's the product launch that everybody said who cares about the product launch. the margins, bob mentioned it, these are margin areas that could be something that builds into the facebook model. i rolled up a position today, i still own the stock, i still have upside calls against it, but rolled them higher. >> you're a big believer. simon? >> i wanted to ask bob while he was on there he said he had a full position. most people with a pull position are still down 45%. >> he's clearly staying with it. >> psychologically holding on to it at this stage. it's up 5%, and it's got massive
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fundamental problems. >> i don't care about holding it, are you buying it? >> no, i'm not. there are other great companies i'll be buying ahead of facebook. >> are you going to buy facebook? >> we talked about this the other night on the show, he owns it, i don't, it's just too complicated for me. this was a stock back in may that was supposed to be simple. you wanted to own it, the potential of growth. it's way too complicated. i guess i'm not smart enough. >> let's do our halftime poll of the day. >> oh, i love this. >> you woke up when i said poll of the day. >> what's your favorite tech stock? google, amazon, or microsoft, tell us what you think at still ahead, you best currency plays ahead of tomorrow's fed decision. and we're in countdown mode for apple's big event. 16 minutes and counting from iphone 5. here's a look at the stock. we're back in a second. smart comes with 8 airbags,c3 a crash management system
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and as the fed begins its meeting, steve liesman with the fresh results of our exclusive fed survey. and then the disconnect between what the economists want from the race of the presidency and what they think that will get. look forward to that. the euro is hitting a fresh four-month high today on news that germany's court has approved the rescue fund. but with a key fed decision looming, what's your best way to play currencies? you all right over there? >> what? >> you're making faces. >> i am not. >> managing director over at ubs. >> hi. >> forgive my panelist over here. welcome to the show. it's good to have you. >> it's going to be a trader's dream tomorrow, right? that's where the initial moves will be seen after the fed does or doesn't do more qe-3, right? >> well, yes. typically the dollar tends to have fairly violent knee-jerk reactions to these kind of
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movements. we will see the fed release qe-3, commit to purchasing $500 million in assets over the next few months, i think if that happens the first reaction of the market will be to try to sell the dollar again. >> you would be expecting 1.30 euro. >> well, yes, that's very possible. the euro has a lot of wind behind it at the moment anyway for reasons to do with eventually europe itself. the fact that the u.s. is now moving down to qe part only adds to that, as well. >> that's the sell point, 1.30, what's your target? give your trade exactly. >> well, the way i've been looking at this for some time now, the euro appears to have fairly corrective rallies within the big picture down trend. we've seen two of those in the past year. one was october 2011, and the other one was january/february 2012. both of them were what i call hope rallies. the first one was all about banking resolution. and the second one was around
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the ltro. but really they tend to stable out when the market runs out of good news to trade off. and tomorrow may be the combination of the good news the euro had. >> thanks for talking. thanks for coming on. coming up, the apple event, 11 minutes away. we'll get a preview next. and as we head to break, let's take a look at apple shares. they look like they're waiting, as well, as much as we are, for what happens out in california. more "halftime report" is up next. my volt is the best vehicle i've ever driven.
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welcome back. we're just moments away now from apple's big iphone unveiling out in san francisco. let's check in with cnbc's brian sullivan right outside the event. >> reporter: feels like a major sporting event here. tv everywhere, people lined up everywhere. moments ago, vice president, former vice president and current apple board member, al gore walked in. we're five minutes away from the actual event kicking off. lots of speculation about what we'll see. the iphone 5 is expected to be the big reveal. apple always famous for unveiling a couple little things here and there. the iphone 5 is 70% of apple's gross profit. this is their single biggest device. the stock is on hold. what we expect from the analyst commentary and sort of the chatter out there -- larger
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screen, thinner, lighter. perhaps a change until dock which might annoy people but would add batly life as well. would it be faster? we want faster data. that's important to verizon and at&t. 4g lte. biggest question is this -- if you are mid contract, are you willing to pay $600, expected, to upgrade your phone? that's going to be the key. right? if your contract is up, verizon and at&t or sprint will subsidize you, sign a two-year deal, get phone for $200, they cover the cost and lock you in. if you're mid contract will what we hear today be enough to drive people to spend the fo$400 or 7 $500 -- i'm going to get on that guy's skateboard. will it be good enough to generate that $400 extra upgrade
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fee. what will the subsidization for the data be. that drives their data revenue. we've got teams inside. i'm out here. we're going to bring you all the news as it happens first on cnbc. i'm going to go for a skateboard ride right now. >> see you on "street signs" with all the coverage of apple's event. jon fortt will have the latest as it is unveiled from the in the building. the biggest pops and drops in midday trading, american microdevices, better known as amd. simon with a pop. >> little pop. texas instruments guided yesterday. amd popped a little bit. but really it is poorly positioned, so stay away from it. >> that would be advanced micro devices, not american.
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monster beverage. >> impressive growth but the new york attorney general's been coming after them on the health side of things. that's been a black cloud holding over this company. still trades at enough of a premium. >> alpha natural resores dropping. >> the drop is warranted. coke and coal priced for the quart are set at $170 a metric ton. last quarter they were $225. 24% less. in the space you want to be in tech resources or in console energy, cnx. >> phillip's 66 popping today. >> morgan stanley upgraded it. chicago bridge and tunnel would be a great name for a club, by the way. psx i think continues to go higher. >> a pop for push-ups. a 7-year-old cranian boy has strong armed his way into the
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record books for doing the most consecutive push-ups. the miniature muscle man pumped out 4,000 consecutive pushups in 2:29 minutes. >> 4,000? >> he says his personal best -- 6,000. >> come on. >> he looks forward to beating his own record. >> that guy's jacked. >> like usain bolt. he sort of slowed down. up on "power lunch," live coverage of the big unveil at 1:00 p.m. bob...
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oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. nowe 50% on banners.
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final trade time. >> akm. >>


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