Skip to main content

tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  September 18, 2012 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT

3:00 pm
their very first word was... [ to the tune of "lullaby and good night" ] ♪ af-lac ♪ aflac [ male announcer ] find out more at... [ duck ] aflac! [ male announcer ] [ yawning sound ] hello and hi. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm bill griffeth here at new york stock exchange. bulls and bears right now really locked in a tug of war in this final hour of trading. >> stocks lower for a second straight day as the glow continues to fade from last week's move by the fed to support the economy. fedex's earnings aren't really helping either. the dow is lower by a little more than nine points. the nasdaq is in negative territory by nearly five points. it's standing at 3,173. the s&p 500 also lower by four
3:01 pm
points. 14,057. >> anything can happen in this final hour. investors so far today have been weighing the upbeat housing data that we got this morning. apple's stocks surged, hit $700 for a time. then fedex's lower earnings outlook may be trumping all so far today. >> in today's "closing bell," we have david pearl and steve liesman standing by. and rick santelli. brian, we're starting with you. improved signs in consumer confidence. then fedex slashes its outlook. where do you come down on those two data points? should we be worried? >> i think what they said at fedex was exactly right. the consumer is kind of looking for a value proposition. the fact that grown shipments are doing well, but people aren't spending up to get it faster to them as people buy from the internet, they get used
3:02 pm
to that delay of getting their goods. >> is their bottom line about the economy? i mean, it's cable. is it good or bad? >> i think the bottom line of the economy is it's fine. i'm still worried about the international side of the equation, but domestically i think we're doing great. >> okay. david, $700 was achieved today in apple. is that it? time to take profits? or with the iphone sales hitting records, should you still buy into the stock? >> apple's still got a lot of upside. it's still trading about at the market multiple. it's growing, you know, 20 to 30% year over year still. it's one of the fastest growing stock in the s&p. yet, at a market multiple generating a lot of profit. this cycle is going to last at least a year because of international expansion. they've got a lot of phones to sell in china and the emerging markets. >> so you'd buy it here? >> oh, yeah. >> there it is, $700. >> yep, back to it again. >> steve, we had a hock and a
3:03 pm
dove from the federal reserve today. net, net, what did we get? >> two doves and one hawk. michelle, you know i love you. you now in i think you're the best. >> uh-oh. we know what's coming. >> i'm sorry maria is not here today for one reason. i think the fed was talking to maria a little bit today. maria was asking the question last week, as was bill, does the fed know something that we don't know? are they trying to send a message that things are worse than we think? when i heard the dove speak today, i heard them speak about the move last week much more as a defensive move. one to ward off, to counteract the head winds we know are in the economy and to try to say, look, things are in the worse than you think. we want to prevent things from getting worse than you think. that's not going fly with other people who have the same concern. i think it's very interesting they're being very careful not to spend a more alarmist
3:04 pm
opinion. >> i'm sure she's watching from home. she's under the weather today. >> rick, what do you make of market action here? yields continue to come lower. we had a bit of a dollar bounce today. what's going on here? >> well, i think especially the dollar bounce against the yen really interests me, bill. for the same discussion that steve was just having. last week there's a lot of, you know, what does it all mean, i'm not really looking at much of it. but the one thing is the beggar thy neighbor. the ball is in the japanese court now. when did we make the seven-month low on the dollar versus the yen? yes, thursday the 13th. look at the big chart there. now it's up to the bank of japan to figure out how they can move their currency because they have an export-driven economy. >> rick, what's going to win the contest of the world's ugliest currency? that's what i want to know. >> can they all go to zero? >> i know who's going to lose. we're all going to lose. i don't know who's going to win.
3:05 pm
>> what did you say, michelle? >> can they all go to zero? the dollar, the euro. >> no, it's one against the other. it's zero sum. somebody's got to lose. somebody's got to inflate more or ease more or qe more or something more on that board right there. it's either the euro goes to 120 or 140, the yen, i don't know where the yen goes. now they're talking about -- they're thinking they look too pretty. they got to get uglier. that's what rick is saying. >> yeah, and it's sad because the answer should be develop more iphones. you know, look at the cost of an iphone. the beggar thy neighbor is just a bunch of losers because if you really have a great export economy, you need great things to export. it's not about tweaking the currency. it's about great products. >> we know that michelle can't win the contest of the ugliest anything. we know that for sure. >> oh, now you're making up -- >> i'm trying to get back. trying to work my way out of the bottom of the barrel. >> let me make this meaningful
3:06 pm
to investors. brian, you have to put money to work. where do you find value in a market that's at five-year highs right now? >> we're looking at stuff like raw stores. came out with the august sales, 8%, good earnings, good revenues. i think it continues into the the near future. >> you see ross store, family dollar, pier 1. you're going for the value-oriented retailers. >> the people shipping on fedex via ground. >> exact lily. >> you can't furnish your house in a day. that's why we like these stocks. >> david, what are you doing? >> you mknow, all of this qe is really helping equities and commodities. you're going to see energy and stock market do well. eventually we believe you're going to have a recovery around the world. boeing has been down on short-term issues, but they have a seven-year backlog.
3:07 pm
the world needs fuel efficient planes. the 787 is the most fuel efficient. micr microsoft is about to have a real product cycle. they could be number two to apple in tablets if windows 8 works. >> what does that mean, number two to apple? 4 million? >> there's a big space in there. >> thank you all for joining us. brian, david, thank you. rick, romeo, nice to see you. see you later. all right. let's move on. we've got yahoo! moving sharply higher right now. seema mody with the latest. >> yahoo! is cashing out and cashing out big. receiving approximately $7.6 billion as it closes. the initial sale of shares, yahoo! is going to return another $3 billion of the freeze shareholders. shares up about 1.4% off of its highs. that's the news, bill. back to you. >> the moment has arrived, bill. >> what is that, michelle? >> yahoo! is monetizing its asian assets. we've been hearing this
3:08 pm
narrative for, is it a decade? no, could be a decade. but years and years and years. we should look at the stock. that's it? >> as we head toward the close, the dow is back in positive territory again. up a whopping one point. >> stick around. we've got a lot more ahead on this busy edition of the "closing bell." coming up, over a barrel. why did oil prices suddenly drop? we'll drill for answers with chris faulkner. plus, the price is right. apple stock reaches $700. facebook, $120. which is the better value? the answer may surprise you. and gaffe or reality check? are mitt romney's comments harsh or the hard truth america has to face? we'll debate coming up on the "closing bell." [ male announcer ] the 2013 smart comes with 8 airbags,
3:09 pm
a crash management system and the world's only tridion safety cell which can withstand over three and a half tons. small in size. big on safety. since ameriprise financial was founded back in 1894, they've been committed to putting clients first. helping generations through tough times. good times. never taking a bailout.
3:10 pm
there when you need them. helping millions of americans over the centuries. the strength of a global financial leader. the heart of a one-to-one relationship. together for your future. ♪ [ male announcer ] the exceedingly nimble, ridiculously agile, tight turning, fun to drive 2013 smart. ♪
3:11 pm
tight turning, fun to drive 2013 smart. extra curricular activities help provide a sense of identity and a path to success. joining the soccer team. getting help with math. going to prom. i want to learn to swim. it's hard to feel normal, when you can't do the normal things. to help, sleep train is collecting donations for the extra activities that, for most kids, are a normal part of growing up. not everyone can be a foster parent... but anyone can help a foster child. welcome back. oil continued lower today after that mysterious selloff that occurred a little over 24 hours
3:12 pm
ago. sharon is here with details. >> we're near the lows of the day right now for crude prices. wti down more than $1 right now. we're seeing oil prices extending the losses as traders wait for the american petroleum institute's supply data coming out and tomorrow morning for the report from the energy department on weekly oil supplies. the expectation is that we're going to see builds across the board in oil, gasoline, and fuel supplies. that may be adding to the pressure that's been going on since yesterday. today the white house reiterating its statement that all options are on the table, including a possible release of emergency reserves from the strategic petroleum reserve. no announcement made yet on that front. and we're also keeping our eye on these technical levels with oil prices below the 200-day moving average. back to you, michelle. >> thank you so much, sharon. what's the real story behind the recent price fluctuations in
3:13 pm
oil? you see that intraday move yesterday? that was a biggie. here with his take is chris faulkner. good to see you. why did oil take such a nose dive in a nano second yesterday? >> i think we have some speculation that a perfect storm occurred with with the jewish holiday combined with october future options expiring there. we saw trading very, very low up until about the 150 hour, about ten minutes there. >> that's connected to the holiday. in other words, because it's a holiday there are far fewer people here. keep going. >> very low volume. those futures expire and caused a rush for folks to cover options. saw a selloff there at the end. i think some of the theory was and concern was thathad they released oil from the spr, the president remains solid on his commitment he will possibly release oil, but he has not done so yet. also, keep in mind oil was
3:14 pm
trading above its 200-day moving average last week. it tested that average yesterday and fell, broke through it, fell out of bed with it, if you will. i don't think it's a fundamental break down in the price of oil. i think you have build up from the tensions in libya over the weekend. they thought possibly those tensions would escalate further than they did. >> as sharon pointed out, there are expectations that this next report is going to show a build in stocks. you know, supply is also growing. that usually doesn't presage a decline in the price. it actually does. >> well, yeah, it does if you have traders wanting to take the profits from a qe-3 buildup we saw breaking $100 oil. they could have been taking profits and breaking off trades and shares. that would be a concern the numbers are going to start falling back. i think they're going to fall tremendously. i think we have $90 going into the 2013 year.
3:15 pm
>> because of demand issues? the middle east is not going anywhere. >> i think you have concerns from the middle east. you've also got, on the other side of that coin, you know, some folks are talking about a bear market because of spain and china and the tension there is. there's two arguments going on right now. we've had middle east tensions, though, as part of the oil price for the whole year. >> yeah, a long time. >> yeah, at least the 2012 year. we saw oil go down and hit a low in june of '79. was that relief from tensions there? possibly. >> ultimately when it comes to the middle east unless there's a supply disruption, in the end it doesn't matter much. we all talk about qe-3 and the fed. maybe the ecb and japan and everybody and their mother printing money if they're a central banker. presumably that means we're going to see commodity prices like oil go higher. at the same time, the reason they're doing that is because the economy stinks. the price of oil should be going
3:16 pm
lower. how does it play out? >> i think as you look at it, i think qe-3, you print money. i think you go into a weakened dollar scenario. oil becomes a great alternative investment for foreign currency holders. i think that's one vehicle that could drive the price of oil up. you've still got these head winds that are driving down because the middle east, this has been overused as far as the speculation goes from the middle east and the back of oil. it's not as major as it used to be. you mentioned we've got japan and china. you have all kinds of things happening there. it's a volatile market. look the at the oil vix. we're at 50% now at the volatility index. oil's had a heck of a run since june lows. >> wait, wait, wait. bill, did you know there's an oil vix? >> oh, yeah. there's all kinds of vixs. there's vix on anything you want to vix on. vix vapor rub and everything going on. let me ask you about natural gas
3:17 pm
at the same time. it keeps trying to rear its head up and get another bull market started from these historic lows. then it comes back down again to earth. what's going on there? >> we can't seem to get the natural gas numbers above $3. the demand in america is flat. we're not using it for transportation. we're not using it for power generation. the only thing we have coming up that might create a nice tail wind here are two things. one, liquefy natural gas, send it over to asia and europe. the second thing may be a manufactured renaissance taking place in the u.s. bigger companies moving back in to take advantage of our cheap natural gas and our big supply. the reality is our demand's been flat in the u.s. this country has not taken advantage of america's biggest gift p gift. i don't think natural gas is going anywhere. >> you're talking about something that's revolutionary and transformative, but it's going to take time. it's just going to take time. it takes a lot of time. >> it's actually acting the way oil should be acting right now
3:18 pm
given the supply and demand. the demand is slowing and going lower and the supply is going higher. therefore, the price should be going lower, shouldn't it? >> i think that really goes back -- you look at the volatility index of how high it is. everybody's guessed where it's going. it's not fundmentacting like it should. >> all right. chris, good to see you. >> thank you, guys. >> we have about 42 minutes before the closing bell. the dow jones industrial average is -- i'm looking at the wrong screen. lower by three points. wow. didn't even have to look. everything is slightly lower. >> apple, $700 a stock price. actually, is it cheaper than facebook, which is trading around 22 right now. our next guest will explain why
3:19 pm
the answer is yes. >> but wait, bill. $700 is bigger than 22. >> not on wall street. plus, how are record sales of the iphone 5 impacti ining as bottom line? with the spark miles card from capital one,
3:20 pm
thor's couture gets the most rewards of any small business credit card. your boa! [ garth ] thor's small business earns double miles on every purchase, every day! ahh, the new fabrics, put it on my spark card. [ garth ] why settle for less? the spiked heels are working. wait! [ garth ] great businesses deserve the most rewards! [ male announcer ] the spark business card from capital one. choose unlimited rewards with double miles or 2% cash back on every purchase, every day! what's in your wallet? [ cheers and applause ] oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs.
3:21 pm
can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners. will it or won't it? apple just points away from closing up $700 for the first time ever.
3:22 pm
bertha is here with the details. >> the big three. some of them not as big, like research in motion, when it comes to phones, all doing well today. rim doing well today on news it has a deal with microsoft to be able to open big files on blackberry. take a look at google. at a near five-year high. of course, apple, we've been watching. even if it does close at $700, normally it hits intraday, takes a few days to close there. today this could really set a record. the interesting thing, had a twitter exchange with someone. it's forward p.e. if those iphone sales hold up. >> that's the conundrum we're going to ponder right now. thank you, for that lead-in. all right, class. everybody pay attention now. here's the question. which company shares are more expensive, apple or facebook? we know no, ma'minally speakinie
3:23 pm
is higher. facebook's p.e. is 123 while apple's is 16 1/2. would there be any reason to choose facebook over apple, you ask? that's what we're going to talk about. talking numbers today on the topical side. on the fundamentals side, max wolf. gentlemen, good to see you both. max, how about this conundrum? apple seems to be cheaper than facebook. do you agree? >> absolutely. by any standard metric of what the company has proven. the other way you can make this into an apples and apples versus apples and oranges is to look at what we call a peg ratio.
3:24 pm
apple is about one-third the multiple price of facebook because apple's growing its revenue more rapidly, even though it's the bigger, more mature corporation. >> so you would buy apple. you would not buy facebook. >> if you were making a fundamental values play, you would have to buy apple over facebook. the question here is whether apple has a great ticket to the future. they own the past and the present. they may be pulling facebook off the cliff on a bad afternoon. >> greg, what do the charts tell us? >> you and i stood here three weeks ago. i said i would only buy facebook on strength. the reason being there was resistance in the facebook chart at around 20. that was because the 21-day moving average line was giving definitive resistance. i would only buy it if it closed above 20 or 2010 on a close. it did it last wednesday. right now i'm long facebook. i think off of this jump higher, what it does is we make an
3:25 pm
objective back to the gap, which was at the end of july right around 25, that area. there's a gap from 24 up to 26. so i think facebook could actually jump up to that level. >> so that's your price objective. >> that's it. >> what about apple? >> so apple, everyone loves it. looks like there's a big rosy picture here. there's a trend line that came in, a resistance line that dates back to about four, five months ago. in july, we butted up against this resistance line many time. it was only on august 3rd we closed above this resistance line. >> it's been off to the races since then. >> $90 higher. right now i don't have a technical reason, a pattern reason to sell it right in this level. as we get to 715, 720 area, somewhere in that range, becomes extremely overbought. if you're long apple, you've been long am fpple for months,
3:26 pm
take 50% off the board. >> you are the second technical analyst in the last week who has said take some profits on apple. you're not alone out there, whether you like that or not. greg, thank you. max, thanks for talking numbers on facebook and apple. the dow jones industrial average is lower by four points. the nasdaq is also lower by five. we have 34 minutes before the closing bell. mitt romney is in damage control after a hidden camera caught him making controversial comments about the 47% of americans who don't pay federal income tax. donald trump says don't run away from those comments. >> these statements were very unfortunate, i guess. i don't think he should apologize. he's probably right. he probably won't get any of those votes. but he should not be apologizing. >> is trump right? we'll debate it. plus, another folly for
3:27 pm
fannie mae again? are they back to making mistakes after reporting its first net profit in years? tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 you should've seen me today. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when the spx crossed above its 50 day moving average, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i saw the trend. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 it looked really strong. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and i jumped right on it. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 since i've switched to charles schwab... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...i've been finding opportunities like this tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 a lot more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 like today, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i was using their streetsmart edge trading platform tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and i saw a double bottom form. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so i called one of their trading specialists tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and i bounced a few ideas off of him. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 they're always there for me. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and i've got tools that let me customize my charts tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and search for patterns as they happen. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 plus webinars, live workshops, research. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 whatever i need. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so when that double bottom showed up, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i was ready to make my move. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 all for $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 can you believe it? tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i love it when you talk chart patterns. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 open an account and trade up to 6 months commission free
3:28 pm
tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 online equity trading with a $50,000 deposit. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-888-292-3787 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and a trading specialist will tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 help you get started today. why they're always there to talk. i love you, james. don't you love me? i'm a robot. i know. i know you're a robot! but there's more in you than just circuits and wires! uhhh. (cries) a machine can't give you what a person can. that's why ally has knowledgeable people there for you, night and day. ally bank. your money needs an ally.
3:29 pm
3:30 pm
and we just talked about apple versus facebook. who's the cheaper, more expensive stock? apple continues higher. you know, often what happens is when you get a round number achieved by some investment, whether it's a stock or commodity of some kind, once it hits that round number, you start to see profit taking. you have a little of that early on. now we're starting to move up higher. president obama's campaign seems to have weathered his ill phrased "you didn't build that" remark. will his presidential rival mitt romney survive the storm about his comments on the percentage of americans who don't pay taxes? >> michelle, we're going to see whether that affects mitt romney's campaign, but i want to talk about one aspect of that video that hasn't gotten quite as much attention today. it has to do with his comments about the israeli/palestinian peace process. now, if you want to see the entire video, go to the mother
3:31 pm
jones website. we cut a portion of it. what makes it interesting is you see mitt romney in private casting doubt on a position that is both the position of former president bush, of president obama, but also mitt romney's public position, which is that there should be a two-state solution between israel and the palestinians. here in this clip, he suggests it's impossible. >> and i look at the palestinians not wanting to see peace anyway for political purposes. committed to the construction and elimination of israel. there's just no way. so what you do is move things along the best way you can. you hope for some degree of stability. what you recognize is going to remain unsolved. >> now, most of the attention all day has been request regard to his comments about people who don't pay taxes. if to you look at these numbers from the tax foundation, that proportion of tax filers reached 50% in the great depression, people who didn't make enough money to pay taxes. it went down under the reagan
3:32 pm
and clinton eras. went back up in 2002. this is a problem for romney because many of these people he's talking about being dependent on the government are people who actually support his campaign, which is why he rushed out to cameras last night and tried to clarify his position. >> it's not elegantly stated, let me put it that way. i'm speaking off the cuff in response to a question. i'm sure i could state it more clearly and in a more effective way. it's a message which i'm going to carry and continue to carry which is, look, the president's approach is attractive to people who aren't paying taxes. >> michelle, the problem here is that mitt romney doesn't have a lot of time to make up ground. he is not trailing by a lot, but he is trailing president obama in this race. we released early numbers from the new nbc wall street journal poll. swroo
3:33 pm
we'll have the full report tonight. when you ask americans who's better prepared to lead the country, most say president obama. >> thank you, john. >> i'm going to take a contrary stance on this whole thing. whether you agree or disagree with what romney said, how refreshing to hear him say what he really believes. now we can vote yes or no based on what he has said he believes, whether you agree with him or not, right? don't you think? >> yeah, i guess. i disagree with a lot of the fundamental premise of what he said. he should care about those 47%. he should be saying to them, you know what, the economy is going to be so much better. you're going to have a job where you're going to pay taxes and you're going to be thrilled about it because you're going to be better off. don't dismiss them. >> these comments have sparked this kind of conversation around the country today on the basis of our tax situation in the united states, right? >> i think that's a very good thing, yeah. >> very healthy conversation.
3:34 pm
some, even though they're calling these comments a disaster for the romney campaign, others are not. donald trump, for one. he's what he told the gang on "squawk box." this morning. >> these statements that were very unfortunate, i guess. i don't think he should apologize. he's probably right. he probably won't get any of those votes, but he should not be apologizing. >> so is donald trump right? should romney just stand behind though comments? joining us to break it down is director of the tax policy center and our own rick santelli. rick, you agree with trump? >> i'm not going to agree or disagree with trump. my opinion is he stated basic facts, not an elegant fashion. sometimes the facts aren't easy to swallow. the issue here isn't about that sound bite. the issue here is about the media. we have a $16 trillion debt. we have a jobs program, or many jobs programs that haven't
3:35 pm
worked. we have a federal reserve who is ultimately going to print whatever size of their balance sheet we get. we have had an attack on the 11th anniversary of 9/11. is this what's in the news? no, we're debating about facts that may politically harm rom y romney. i don't see that what he said is incorrect. >> we'll see. the economics of this whole thing behind the comments we want to look at as well. a fact check, of sorts. what about that, donald? does that wash with what romney said? >> we estimate that about 46% of americans, households in 2011 didn't pay federal income tax. that's driven basically by two things. first of all, if people have low incomes, and a lot of people do coming out of the recession. then they're not required to pay any federal income tax. second, there are a variety of programs we run through the tax code, mostly to benefit senior citizens and working families with children that have the
3:36 pm
effect of eliminating their tax lienlt. >> you're talking about the earned income tax credit. there are individuals in america that earn so little they get a supplemented check from the government when they file their taxes. >> yeah, the earned income tax credit and child credit help low-income working families that have kids. >> we've been conducting this non-scientific cnbc poll on the romney comments. you can still vote. to this point, about 75% of those who decided to vote seem to agree with what governor romney said. rick, what do you make of that? >> we have a dependency society. we do. it's a fact. i'm not saying there aren't subsects of people, whether they're retired or can't work or whether they're too old to work, but when i look at the labor force participation rate and i see that out of the eligible pool of workers, we're bringing forth the fewest to actually have a job, there is a problem here. maybe the media ought to quit
3:37 pm
hiding under tables and look at some of the bigger damn issues. >> rick, you know you and i stand on the same side of the aisle. what i found frustrating is his dismissiveness. he's not going to try. why not articulate about how the economy is going to be better? >> he wasn't giving a speech. he was talking to a bunch of people just like you and i talk to a bunch of people. he wasn't giving us the benefit of how he can change for the better. he was telling us you have so many ways to try to affect the election and keeping taxes low for the people that have to work -- >> he said he's done. he's not going try to attract those people. >> i listened to that three times. i ended up listening to a private conversation that wasn't a speech. you know, this wasn't -- >> exactly. >> this wasn't like the private conversation the president had with putin where he's talking about a world leader. don't worry about it. we'll get to the real stuff
3:38 pm
after the election. this was a man talking to some people about some issues. it wasn't a speech. wasn't part of a debate. the media overblows everything. i want to know what happened last week on 9/11. i want to know what's going on with china and japan. >> thank you, rick. >> we knew what we were getting ourselves into. don, you point out the data capture a certain group of people at a certain point in their lives. they're not going to be there forever. >> absolutely. people who have just lost a job, they're going to be down low income but fully anticipate in the future they'll be up higher, earning income and paying federal income taxes. at the other end, after people have retired, that's usually after a long career of earning income and paying income taxes. >> so -- >> don, what do you make of our poll? we have 75% of viewers completely agreeing with mitt romney. >> of those who voted. >> i guess the thing i would say going back to some of the
3:39 pm
earlier points is if this is a number you're worried about, the solution to this number is to have stronger economic growth. if you've got strong economic growth, people will move up in the income distribution. they'll pay more in taxes. you know, everyone will be better off. >> well, you got applause from the other guy. >> yeah, no, i mean, that's it. that's the real story. >> why are you applausing him? i was just telling you the same thing and you disagreed with me. >> no, i didn't. i disagreed that romney is fore saking those people. the people that are the subsets, they understand what he's saying. it's the interpretation by the media who doesn't want mitt romney. it's obvious. oh, my god. pick up a newspaper. turn on a tv. nobody in the media except for maybe one crazy channel, is on his side. >> there you go. thank you very much, rick. >> i do agree with rick on that. >> don, thank you for joining us today. rick, ill point out, you are the media too, my friend. >> i am. thank god. >> a reluctant, repentant.
3:40 pm
>> here's another question about romney and the 47% tape. was it illegal to make the recording in the first place? that's not clear cut. that story is on a ton of hits already on that story. we're going take a break here. we'll come back. the dow is starting to move into positive territory with about 20 minutes left on the day. up about six points. >> stocks may be stuck in neutral today. our next guest says history suggests this market is on the verge of taking off. sam stonewall is next. also, fedex warning the economy is getting worse, people penny pinching now. but there are some stocks that benefit from that. we have some of those names coming up. stay tuned. [ horn honks ] hey, it's sandra -- from accounting. peter. i can see that you're busy... but you were gonna help us crunch the numbers for accounts receivable today. i mean i know that this is important. well, both are important. let's be clear. they are but this is important too.
3:41 pm
[ man ] the receivables. [ male announcer ] michelin knows it's better for xerox to help manage their finance processing. so they can focus on keeping the world moving. with xerox, you're ready for real business. to provide a better benefits package... oahhh! [ male announcer ] it made a big splash with the employees. [ duck yelling ] [ male announcer ] find out more at... [ duck ] aflac! [ male announcer ] ♪ ha ha! how they'll live tomorrow. for more than 116 years,
3:42 pm
ameriprise financial has worked for their clients' futures. helping millions of americans retire on their terms. when they want. where they want. doing what they want. ameriprise. the strength of a leader in retirement planning. the heart of 10,000 advisors working with you one-to-one. together for your future. ♪
3:43 pm
[ male announcer ] introducing a reason to look twice. the entirely new lexus es and the first-ever es hybrid. this is the pursuit of perfection. apple, take a look. it went to 702. it's right there. look at that. it was waiting for me. 702 on the nose. higher by $2.16. a gain of a third of a percent. holy canoli. >> indeed. stocks overall struggling to end in the green today. mary thompson is here in the middle of the action with more. >> hey there, bill.
3:44 pm
the fedex warning casting a lull over the mark today. call it about a 25-point range since 11:30 this morning. volume, too, has tapered off as the day has gone on. earlier it looked like we hit the year average of $3.6 billion on the consolidated tape. looks like we'll hit about $3.3 billion. again, federal express a weak spot here. for the last three months, it's failed to keep up with the dow jo jones average. what is winning today are these stronger staples. back to you guys. >> thank you, mary. so the s&p 500 could go to the 1500 level by the end of the year. that's not bad. >> not bad. not that far away.
3:45 pm
>> it would mean a very good year overall for stocks. >> sam joins us now with jeff cox, who is cnbc's senior writer. sam, we'll start with you. what's beginning to get us there? >> with more people big disbelievers who finally throw in the towel, it's almost like the song "i'm a disbeliever." once they flip over to "i'm a believer," it could push us in. >> you need a metaphor people under 30 understand. >> jeff, you talked about how it's not this investor who's on the last train to clarkstown. >> wasn't it clarkston? >> clarksville. >> do you know what they're talking about? >> for the most part, the little guy's not participating in this rally. >> the little guy has been out for years. i've done some data mining on this. go back to 2008 right after the market hit its peak. we had over $.5 trillion come
3:46 pm
out of equity mutual funds. almost $1 trillion into bond funds. here's what i'm worried about. i'm worried about sam is right, the market rallies, everybody comes in, buys at the top, market over. >> that's human nature. it happens every single time. we've seen it again and again. >> what about the election and its impact? in an election year, what happens to stocks historically? >> historically if the market go up between july 31st and october 31st, the incumbent gets re-elected. 80% chance obama gets re-elected based on that data since 1900. then we see momentum carry into november. we have a positive month, up 3.5%, that we then get back in december. usually a good two-thirds of the market highs in election years occur in the november and december period. >> where do you think we are in this cycle of the nonparticipation by the small investor out there and when they
3:47 pm
finally get in it signals the end of the market. >> i think we're in the early stages. as jeff mentioned to me upstairs, the only flows are going into hybrids. they're willing to tip their toes in the water fully dress. >> what does that mean? >> they're in funds that are allocation funds that they have equity exposure and fixed income exposure all in one. really, they're not making a bet on equities directly. >> i will tell you this. the people i talk to are worried that the retail investor may never come back into this market. >> i've heard that too. >> we heard this in the '70s. >> but you know what, it was dim different in the '70s. they were talking about returns. i'm talking about actual fundamental faith in the market, going through the flash crashes, and going through the nightmare. >> but you have had someone sy d they're not going to see returns in the future like you have in
3:48 pm
the past and to get used to this 4% growth rate for the stock market going forward. it's the same pattern. >> why not just take my money and put it in a bond fund? they've been rewarded. they just go to the bond funds, play it safe, and stay there. that's a lot of the concern i get. they're wondering if that volume is ever going to come back. >> are bonds a better value than stocks, you think? >> at one point, 6%. how much more capital gains can you get out of ten-year treasuries? my feeling is that there's much more risk by going into bonds today. >> yeah, that's what's going to drive people out of bonds, when they figure out they're not so safe. there's a little bit of inflation, bam, they get pumm pummelled. >> historically the market goes up whenever the bond yields start to go up until that 6% line in the sand. >> i think 4% is the new 6%.
3:49 pm
>> hey, hey, you've made me a believer. >> or something like that. thanks, guys. 11 minutes before the closing bell. the dow jones industrial average is higher by two points. the nasdaq is lower by two points. >> is washington to blame for our sluggish economy? >> the real uncertainty stems from what my tax is going to be, what kind of spending patterns are going to come out of federal government. >> so will those lawmakers get their act together? the ranking democratic member of the house's tax writing committee ways and means will join us live from capitol hill coming up next. [ male announcer ] for the dreamers...
3:50 pm
and those well grounded. for what's around this corner... and the next. there's cash flow options from pnc. solutions to help businesses like yours accelerate receivables, manage payments, and help ensure access to credit. because we know how important cash flow is
3:51 pm
to reaching your goals. pnc bank. for the achiever in you.
3:52 pm
we've been watching apple today as it -- see what would happen when it gets to $700. do you see profit taking move in? we got a little of that earlier today. now it's moving higher. this is close to the high of the day. moments ago you saw that, michelle. >> went to $702. >> just off that right now. >> one wall street firm,
3:53 pm
actually a couple, thinks the device is going to hurt the providers verizon and at&t. >> there's a logic here. the carriers subsidize these phones in a very big way. couple hundred dollars each. >> maybe as much as $500 per phone. >> so every phone they sell actually can scrunch their margins smaller and smaller. this is the amazing thing about apple. they squeeze profitability out of other sectors where they never were before. they did that with music. they make a ton of money on the iphone. the phone carriers used to and now don't. >> there's also a -- consumers are trained to the cyclicality now. there was a pent-up demand for this iphone as people waited. what did they do in the meantime? they didn't buy a phone. there's a cyclicality that's
3:54 pm
built into the system. you end up commodotizing. we'll talk more about the iphone 5 impact on at&t's bottom line. we have an exclusive coming up. >> that's right, with the ceo of at&t wireless. coming up next, we're coming back with the closing countdown. also, union leaders are moments away from voting on whether to end the chicago teachers union strike. stay tuned. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] how do you engineer
3:55 pm
a true automotive breakthrough? ♪ you give it bold new styling, unsurpassed luxury and nearly 1,000 improvements. introducing the redesigned 2013 glk. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services.
3:56 pm
oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners. like in a special ops mission? you'd spot movement, gather intelligence with minimal collateral damage.
3:57 pm
but rather than neutralizing enemies in their sleep, you'd be targeting stocks to trade. well, that's what trade architect's heat maps do. they make you a trading assassin. trade architect. td ameritrade's empowering web-based trading platform. trade commission-free for 60 days, and we'll throw in up to $600 when you open an account. okay. inside the three-minute mark here as we head toward the close. looks like the dow will try and finish positive here so we won't get back to back down days, which hasn't happened quite a while here in the summertime.
3:58 pm
what we are watching go lock upper is the euro. it continues lower. the reasoning, the thinking goes that even though the ecb has put in place the mechanism to try and help out though countries that need the help, the thing is the countries have to ask for the help. so far spain is reluctant to do that. maybe the market's becoming a little impatient about this, the you' euro backing away from that seven-month high. that means a stronger dollar. basic materials go lower. oil, even with that big selloff yesterday, continued lower again today. no snap back from that selloff yesterday. down another 1%. gold, slightly different story. it's been backing away from that recent six-month high it set. now we're kind of moving a little higher here late in the day. up $2.80 to 1773. still well off that recent high. the dow itself is following gold, interestingly enough today. it's also moving into positive territory here at the close at
3:59 pm
13,560. yields in the treasury, especially along the long end of the curve, still backing away here. now down to 1.80% after that high that was hit last week following the qe-3 announcement. sectors, only three of the ten s&p 500 sectors were positive today. they were consumer staples health care, and telecom. everybody else was negative. peter, this market feels like it's waiting for something. what's it waiting for what's left to wait for now? >> there's nothing left. earnings season is going to start in a couple weeks. maybe that's what we're waiting for. there's not a lot of money being put to work. i do think they're probably waiting for earnings season. >> what's the next catalyst from your thoughts, sam? >> my thought is that most people from an economic to earnings perspective are looking at a third quarter trough. actually, they'll probably have to wait until we get signals about the fourth quarter to see whether indeed the market was correct in anticipating a six-month recovery. >> all right. we'll get those numbers ae


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on