tv Fast Money CNBC June 17, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
the dow up 110 points. nasdaq composite up 28. thanks for being with me tonight. i'll see you tomorrow. same time. stay with "fast money." it begins right now. >> live from the nasdaq market at new york city's times square. i'm melissa lee. let's get straight to the big story. fast is falling for up tonight. fed freakout. stocks off to the races this morning only to be slammed in the last two hours of trading and finishing with solid gains across the board. the dow seeing the fifth triple move. what was behind the late day selloff. an article suggesting that bernanke is eager to pull off bond purchases. first we want to ask tonight is the volatile market a reaction to every single taper headline completely insane and how do you
trade the insanity? guy? >> to me it makes sense because of where we are in terms of the market. all time high in s&p so a tremendous reversal. we sold off 90 s&p points and we're right in the middle of that range. people are terrified that the next headline will derail the rally. they focus on every piece of news that comes out. it makes sense to me. whether you enjoy it or embrace it makes sense to me. >> when you read that article did anything come out at you that was new? >> no. it was like the ft like oh, look we have insight into the fed, too. look, they don't know anything. they have their opinions. that's fine. we all have opinions. no one knows what's going to happen. if that's your game to come in at 3:00 and change your whole outlook because a reporter put a story out, i don't know what your time frame is.
the big boys did not move. you didn't see a huge change around in what was happening throughout the course of the day. you saw players at the margin lighten up a little bit, maybe some shorts come on. really i don't think this is anything for us fo freak out on. >> this is a trader's market. >> clearly. >> we want to see days like this. >> great for traders. >> absolutely. >> and you see the market sell off. a percentage point, we should love this. we had months where we did nothing but move higher. so you couldn't grab anything. but if you look at this chart it's your day. if you look at the mack charts every time we touch the 50 day we have's run. the last two times we ran 7% and 9%. if we do it again we're well above 1700. >> pete, how did you trade this market today? >> i love it. it's what you want if you are a trader. as an investor it's difficult. when you look at everything people look at the fed, japan,
housing, financials and they put that together. we are a news driven market. 2013 absolutely has been everything news driven. as soon as we hit may 31 we've stayed above. even on these days where we pushed 15, 16 level in the s&p it's well above the 200 day moving average which tells me there's enough jittery folks out there. i don't know if i heard that volatility is going to leave as soon as the fed speaks. i don't agree. i think it stays for the summer. >> what does he give that gives us closure this week? he can't give us closure. you have guys bet on earnings. >> any other headline that says taper -- >> it's either going to be europe, japan or earnings. >> i think the key we should keep in mind is the only reason we're having this discussion is that the july meeting, september
meeting, things are getting better, the problem is they are not getting better fast enough for us to talk about anything remotely close to rising rates. so what i would be doing here is fading outlandish moves in either direction. this is not a scenario where things are great but it's not the end of the world. if they buy bonds six months from now it should not have a material market. if there are extremes that's your play book, whatever direction you need. >> i agree with josh on this. i think people are basically thinking the worst. first of all, i don't expect bernanke to come out and say something overwhelmingly bearish. when you consider that since 09 we had two periods when the fed wasn't heavily involved. we saw a swoon in 2011. the market was flat in 2010 so people are saying risk es eths are propelled by fed action.
it's justifiable that you are going to try and trade around that. >> let's get back to the financial times story which sent the market into a tail spin. the dow falling after that headline that said that fed would single tapering. let's bring in the reporter behind the fuss. robin harding. great to speak with you. >> good to be with you. >> i want to read one of your tweets. people need to chill out. the fed does not need to steer markets, especially during the blackout. you saw the impact your article had on the markets. what was your reaction? >> i'm glad that people are reacting to the article. i think they should. it contains useful insights and it's extensively reported. people need to bear in mind the fed has a one week blackout during which it doesn't say anything to anybody. people need to react to the content of the story rather than the existence of the story. what i've seen happening today
and i think we saw it happening last week, too. the market was reacting as if there's a secret bat signal here. that's not the case. there's useful information. people ought to react carefully. just to guy rate like this suggests to me that people are taking a signal from the existence of the article rather than what it actually says. >> i'm going to get to the point that you made that it is extensively reported. we respect the financial times and its reporting but if the fed has a blackout for a week does that mean it was extensively reported and you sat on this information and then released it today which moved the markets? >> the rules that they follow and they're written on the website they say that no fed official is allowed to speak to anybody in the week running up to a meeting. in my experience they respect that. >> does that mean that you reported it this more than a week ago and sat on the
information and then released it today? >> by definition i think that's how all reporting on the fed works. >> i very much agree with your point that these huge gyrations don't make much sense in the context of what's currently been reported. let me ask you this question on a forward looking basis. out of all the things that people are talking about or looking for on this fed statement and the economic outlook report as well, what are you looking for? what do you think is going to be the most important nugget of all of this information we're about to get? >> the thing that the market reactly strongly to in chairman bernanke's testimony is when he said in the next few meetings which normally means two or three. i would guess three in this case which gives you june, july and september. i'll be looking for how he modifies that phrasing or signal. he's certain to be asked about it if no one else asks him, i will. so i will be looking for how he
phrases that statement. >> if he said several, would that just be the way he speaks or would that be a signal? because that's how gran you lar it seems we've gotten with these fed statements? >> what i hope he's going to do given based on my reporting that closer to the date of a taper i hope that will mean they're in a position to explain to us more clearly what the actual economic variables or progress on the economy is by looking forward. the whole problem here has been that they have not been clear about that. i think that's why markets are gyrating in response to everything that is said about it. >> so, robin, in your article when you say that the definition of substantial improvement has grown less optimistic overtime does that mean it will take a lower bar for the fed to begin tapering? >> this is one of the things that i think is useful and people should pay attention to. i think the grounds have shifted a bit on labor force
participation. i think that people are growing less optimistic about how fast that may come back and therefore they may be looking for slightly less, you know, big figures on payrolls before they will judge if that's a substantial improvement. >> robin, i want to go back to the release of this article because it did happen at a time when the markets were pretty much at session highs and you alluded to the fact that you understood why the markets reacted in the manner in which they did. was there any knowledge that this article would be released at that time of day? if you knew this was going to be impact i'm curious because we were at gains across the board. >> i have nothing to do with that. i write articles. we send them out when we write them. it's not something we pay attention to. >> we're going to leave it there. thanks for your time. >> thank you. >> robin harding of the financial times. guy? >> i thought he answered the
questions farreirly. he writes his articles and people determine what they want to do. my point and pete's point is volatility is here to stay. the moves we're seeing make perfect sense to me but know what your levels are. we discussed them at great length on the show. on thursday i thought the next 25 points would be higher in the s&p. we started to build on that today and we'll see what happens. >> what's interesting about volatility is at a certain point you see the gee ragss become less and less and they get ignored entirely. we saw that with the sequester, the european crises the summer before. it's only a matter of time before we start to ignore these headlines. >> substantial improvement, lets less optimistic so therefore
tractor-trailthe threat of tapering is real. >> they will become less and less important. volatility is great. let's have more of it but recognize it won't be with us forever. >> we're paying homage to regis philb philbin. we made a call and it's strons since then and one investor is sounding the alarm on the runup. we're naming names, back in two. . and tea parties. i'll have more awkward conversations than i'm equipped for, because i'm raising two girls on my own. i'll worry about the economy more than a few times before they're grown. but it's for them, so i've found a way. who matters most to you says the most about you. at massmutual we're owned by our policyowners, and they matter most to us. ready to plan for your future? we'll help you get there.
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>> time to hit our top three trades. apple falling below it's average. shares down 19%. you saw unusual call volume. >> we did. today's read was not all that great. the call volume was being bought. it was the july monthly. they're going out getting themselves some time and going into that third weekend of july. the 470 strikes. they bought the largest print that i've seen in a very long time. outside of folks doing dividend trades, this is the largest trade i've seen in apple today.
over 10,000 of these bought, $2.02 6 down a little bit early. a lot of folks, me in that camp, think that second half apple is going to move. >> you are a believer. >> i'm a big believer in the second half, absolutely. >> next up. philadelphia, aero space among the best performers in this index. >> we had a conversation about what makes since in this year. defense was one of the sectors we talked about. i thought all these stocks were under pressure, political risk. they're all making 52 week higher. lock hood martin. i think these stocks go higher. >> micron shares miking to a five year high after two positive mentioned by wall street analysts and regis
philbin has been on the right side of this trade for some time. >> you're known as mr. micron. what's regis doing in micron. >> i was the first one to tell you that and i heard scoffing and mocking. >> you're right. our bad. >> it's climbed over 8. god knows where it's going to go from here. >> well above 8. actually regis e-mailed me and said he nailed it. >> kelly ripa is assured we should report -- >> this one is totally depending on deram. if you think it's higher you want to be in this stock. i do think it's going higher. >> next trade, our next guest runs aa fund that runs exclusively in -- he joins us now with under the radar picks in a big box retailer you might want to avoid.
let's well jeff. in terms of your topics, one is a mattress name and this has been in the news a lot. there are certain that consumers don't want to pay up for extensive mattresses. >> you're referring to select comfort which is the retailer and manufacturer of the sleep number bed. what happened was they were moving along line, benefitting from the household formation expansion, the housing market. what they opted to do was change their media buying, they had 7 buying agencies. they constricted that down. they didn't buy enough media in the wintertime for the president's day sale and ended up missing numbers. this is a very emotional stock with wall street participants. they miss numbers, the stock goes down. now people aren't paying attention to it. they have just launched a product called the dual temp
which is aanalogous so the air conditioned seat in your car. this is a mattress pad and you can have your choice -- >> this is going to be a catalyst? >> this is a catalyst. >> it's a cool temp mattress, why would you ever leave your home? >> another one of your names is lifetime fitness which is interesting. after 09 the stock got whacked. it's starting to build back. to me its all about membership ads. any hiccup, i guess in the membership ads that becomes rich very quickly i would imagine. >> what happened with lifetime over the course of time is they have noticed as the recession wore on is higher income clubs, higher demographic clubs did well. so they started focusing on the higher demographic clubs. they used to be a marriott and they noticed their four seasons
clubs were doing much better. unfortunately when you open clubs they have accelerated this, there is a lag you have to incur generally about a million dollars per club. when they gave preliminary guidance it was a little below what they thought. to put some numbers behind it, the average club does about $3 million and has 65 members. the club they're adding now has about 8500 members and does from 5 to $10 million. as we get into 2014 you see earnings accelerate. there's no catalyst so nobody wants to buy it and all of a sudden you have a health and wellness plague with earnings growth accelerating. >> it's ipting to see that you dislike target. most people come on and they like target. what is it that you don't like about the stock? >> one of the things you see in anything consumer related is you're either the best at
something, the cheapest or you're the best service. you're seeing retailers stuck in the middle. when you think about target, they're consumer electronics, apparel store, grocery store. they're not really the best at any of those and stuck in the middle. >> jeff, quick, full disclosure, red robin is one of your picks. i always find it interesting how insightful you pick these stocks and why you pick them. why? >> the restaurant sector is probably one of the easier sectors to invest in because management makes a difference. they brought in a new management team that has done nothing but execute. when you think about a restaurant, people go in, they're hungry, they need to eat, did they have a good experience and did they come back. red robin average check is 11 dollars. they got you to order a diet coke and the check went up by
10%. very settle movements by the management team can make a difference. >> do you like any of these consumers? >> i have been in and out of the temper pedic. why one over the other right now? >> select comfort controls their own destiny. they own everything. the temper pedic customer is the mattress salesman where select comfort the sales man is you. >> weakening demand and rising costs and oun of our traders has a gold old fashioned street fight. later on investors pulling more money out of emerging market bond funds. could one of the riskiest trades this year turn into one of the second half's best plays. we're taking a deeper dive next. out there owning it.
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>> material sector feeling the pressure from the global slowdown from china in particular. u.s. steel down 27% in 2013. time for a good old fashioned street fight. guy adami and josh brown. bull, kick it off. >> this isn't a dip. this is a catastrophe for these names. i've been saying stay away. now might be the time to get interested, especially u.s. steel. 18 analysts cover this stock. four sells, nine holds and five buys. what does that mean? any piece of incremental good news analysts switch and you see a bounce in the stock. 30% shortage, it's hard to
remain short that has short above 18%. it's right time after time. these are highly cyclical names, especially u.s. steel. china bought them. 7% gdp is the bottom. they turn although they do face competition. the stocks should go higher. >> i agree with guy if you are short or selling the big risk is it's too hated. let's talk why it's so hated. first of all, this is a company that reported a loss of 35 cents versus positive 67 cents a year prior. the business is getting worse. the return on equity is less than one percent. it's a disaster story. there's no areas you can point to and say the buyers are coming in at these levels. bottom line this is a company in substantial decline, globally steel mills are running at 70% capacity. until that changes and technically you see buyers step
up, there's no reason to be in this thing. >> you got a headline that jeff lobe or somebody is interested and you see how quick -- the businesses in the catastrophe agree -- >> that's equity at 20%. you cannot come in here -- >> the buzzer once again. to mike for the verdict. >> you don't buy companies fund amountly impaired as this one. you're not going to make money. you miss ten percent to the upside that will be your buy right there. >> let us know who one. hashtag bull or hashtag bear. growing fears over the feds taper plan, could this mean super risky trade in the first half possibly be setting up as one of the second half's best
plays. jeff, great to see you. >> great to be here. >> what's the premise to get investors in. there have been sizable outflows from bond as well as equity funds in the emerging markets area recently. the thought is that the u.s. is really the safe haven. >> that's definitely the consensus. to a certain extent when you look at people putting money out of the emerging market, i would say most of the money going out has been fast money. it's been relatively short. for the patient men the men is still there. >> china, brazil and poland, have we seen the worst in terms of china growth? >> china is trying to slow down in a conventional way. i think from the macro side you can see some negative news.
but i think it's important to dig deeper to figure out if this is intentional slowing and there are a lot of winners out of this. if you stretch the horizon low enough, the intermediate horizon is bullish for china. over the next year or two you will probably see volatility in china. >> i actually use one of your products to get exposure for clients in the emerging markets. your dividend focus, would you recommend that given the fact that a risen bond yield here in the u.s. now represents fresh competition? will that not matter a few months out? >> i think in the short run there will be some pressure given that stocks have long duration in there. but i think when you dig a little deeper underneath the fund, a lot of these dividend paying stocks in the emerging
market are growth companies, even the utility companies, the power plants, some of the tell come companies are fairly strong growth. it's got the income angle but gross profile as well. >> in terms of brazil, on the equity sides the valuations are higher when you compare the pe ratios on brazil to the emerging markets. >> valuation is i think certainly fair for brazil. on the relative return basis brazil is down over 20% year-to-date. i think when we talk to investors, the sentiment has been quite negative. when you think about from a latin perspective our view that mexico is much more problematic compared to brazil. the valuation for mexico is more stretched compared to brazil. on a relative basis we will be
overweighting brazil and underweighting mexico as a result. >> jeff shen. show of hands, what is going to increase spending. >> i know pete has been on this, i think there's a great way to increase exposure and stock markets i think are still a little dangerous here. look at master card. go and look at their website, look what the ceo has been saying about what they're trying to do in emerging markets. the growing opportunity for them is tremendous. i don't think you have to jump into emerging markets but if you want exposure master card has been great. >> i have yet to be convinced by anybody why i want exposure directly into some et product. somebody needs to prove to me why i want to be there rather than being in something like
caterpillar for be china exposure. >> when a market like brazil or russia goes up 1,000% like a 2009 period that's the reason why you want some of your assets there. >> we are in a different trading time now than we were ten years ago. >> it's always different but cycles never change and these markets have gotten disturbingly cheap. >> good debate, guys. got to go. coming up next, a look at some of the top headlines sure to drive the market. how is dennis gartman playing the violent swings in the oil trade. he will at the tell us right after this break. before a credit solution was used to expand their business... before trusts were created for their grandkids' educations... they chose a partner
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2010. i have not been on this band wagon of old tech but if i bought one of them it would be sysco. the news is steadily getting better. they have captured their entire market. >> next up the deadline for dish network to submit a revised offer, scheduled to submit a plan offer. >> it's wanted by dish and soft bank. stock might be a little topee but i am still long and i have shaved my position on the way up. >> housing starts at 8:30 a.m. tomorrow as home building hit a 7 year high. diana joins us with a preview. >> housing starts are expected to rise over 11% month to month in may. remember the headline number includes multi-family and single family homes. you want to watch the single
family homes which has been lagging. . the stocks got a boost. the index jumped eight points in june from may finally moves into positive territory for the first time since 2006. stocks of the home builders are way up from a year ago. they have been down though in the past month due to rising mortgage rates. those rates will continue to rise as the fed potentially pulls out of mortgage bonds. when people buy new homes they buy new stuff for those homes and make personal touches. >> thank you very much. not just the home builders but it was the input to the home building sector. >> throw in something like a whirlpool, a lot of areas that play off of this. even the bed bath and beyond, you can go there. when you talk about single family, i look at beeser. it's underperformed. this is a name that could go higher. small cap.
i think it has legs. >> it's actually lagged the last couple weeks, something definitely to watch. it's at 77 now lumber liquidators, that has been unbelievable because people have been betting against it. 30 times forward earnings but margins are improving. quarters have been good. valuation is rich. until you see a huge volume day this stock courts higher. >> oil hitting a $100 a barrel mark as tensions in syria, turkey and iran heat up. let's bring in dennis gartman, good to see you. what's the next stop for wti. >> i think crude oil wants to go higher. we know the bearish news. we know there's a lot of new oil
being found. this is already in the market. what i'm fascinated by is the term structure, the ability of the front months to gain upon the backs as the market was weakening and especially when the market is strengthening when the term structure moves that way and the front lead the way up and hold on the way down it tells me that informed money is probably try to buy the market and tells me that the market is short in the spot and i'm always going to be interested in buying markets where the market is in back and the year spreads in wti are doing that. i'm short brent and i trade only for my own account. i'm long wti for myself and i'm long a little bit of wti and short gold against it. that might be the next interesting trade. >> i'm curious because we are in the intro to you outlined the geo political tensions. why would you be short brent
here? >> it has been losing all detour the last month and a half. you would think brent would do well but it's not. it's weakened against wti. i'm going to consistently be short of that. what's going on in the united states is we're learning how to move crude oil in this country via rail and pipeline but mostly rail and it's allowing us to move it out of the midwest and get it to the refineries along the east coast. crude oil got stuck in the middle of the united states. it's not stuck anymore. it's moving. suddenly the east coast refineries no longer have a need for brent. >> you think it's headed to 150 in the next three to five years. what about the volatility in japan? >> the volatility of the past several weeks, something that should only move 40 pips is
moving 150. we've seen something odd in the dollar yen. the dollar is trying to rally in the morning and get sold off sharply in the afternoon. it looks like a hedge fund is finding himself in a difficult position and getting liquidated or the manager of the fund is saying i got to get out, i've had a rally, i want out. the volatility is quite stunning. all i have done is gotten smaller and smaller in my trading. as i said last week i can normally carry 5, 10 million positions. i'm down. >> got to go. good to see you. how do you trade oil here? >> oil is technically trading to the t right now. 85 is your support, 98 is your top. it's only good for a couple of dollars.
i would trade nat gas coc. >> does the rail trade still work here? >> kansas city southern was a monster. that stock has backed off. you asked me how to trade energy. look at apache. it broke. down trend, 86 and a half, up two% today. >> the correction in canadian pacific is a great opportunity. >> still ahead activist investor star board calling for the breakup of smithfield food saying the sale to a chinese company under values the worth. do they think the deal will go through? later on steven p grasso, listen up, we're taking a look back at your call on microsoft. stick around. back in two. scottrade. ron: i'm never alone with scottrade. i can always call or stop by my local office. they're nearby and ready to help. so when i have questions,
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activity in deals such as this. risk guys usually buy the stock and sell calls on it. that's how the day started off and then we saw one investor buy the calls. they were making a cheap bet, betting less than 1 and a half% of the stock price. i think the options market is pricing that the probability of that is very low. he was pricing the stock at fair value, significantly higher than the existing bid. >> more options action every friday 5:30 eastern time. time for pops and drops, the big movers. we kick it off for pop at san disc. >> this is absolutely a reaction for what happened with micron, this sector carried the entire chip sector higher. i think it's going higher. >> pxd. >> this stock is up 65%.
it's been a monster. i don't think there's any reason to sell it yet. >> drop for joy down one percent. >> they're under pressure. i would not be a buyer just yet. >> time warner, a drop. >> late last week the stock ripped on ideas that there might be consolidation in the industry. raymond james came out today and dismissed that. the stock looks fully valued. i wouldn't buy it. >> sirius radio up two percent. >> there was a lot of talk about consolidation involving liberty med media. this is early in what could be a long season of chatter between cable companies, online companies, its. >> top of the hour restaurant wars. cramer is rolling up his sleeves to see who will win the food fight. face-off from companies from miami and san antonio. jim turns up the heat.
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>> breaking news here let's get to jane wells with an exclusive first time ever on tv with kpmg insider scott london. jane? >> we caught up with him outside federal court where he was inside presenting a plea agreement to the judge that he will plead guilty at a future date in the next few weeks in insider trading after giving secrets and insider information to his friend brian shaw who has pled guilty saying he made a million dollars on that information, herbal life, deckers outdoor. scott talked to us about how much he made in kick backs and if this was the only time it ever happen. listen. >> i received about $50,000 in cash. a watch that i was led to believe was worth about $10,000,
a roll ex and three or four other items that i gave to my wife that were appraised for just under $10,000. if you add it up about 70 grand. >> is that going to be given back is this. >> most of it has been. the payment of the bond, the watch has been given back. the jewelry is in my car. the agents weren't present the so we couldn't give it back but that's the plan. >> you were kpmg for 30 years. that never happened before? >> no. i've been there 30 years. nothing like this has ever happened before. i had a clean record, no violations of anything. unfortunately this, you know, ended up starting as something small and got pulled into something bigger which i obviously regret. i regret every day of my life. >> reporter: so why did this happen? he said that at first it may have been him complaining about
certain things with a friend brian shaw trading on him about information without knowing it. he did know about it later. he did accept the cash and the gifts. he said however he he had no idea shaw made one million. he said when he herd he wanted to throw up. he is going to appear at a later date in court and plead guilty. he could face up to 20 years in prison. they're hoping it's nowhere near that because he pled guilty and admitted to everything. i asked him after that is over what's next. he said i'm 50 years old. i have to kids to put in college. i'll wait tables if i have to. >> at the end of the day it doesn't make a difference if he's passing on this information how much that person makes, right? >> reporter: he had no idea. you can argue that obviously but he said he had no idea, according to him, this was a much bigger operation for brian shaw than he ever realized, but
he doesn't deny he took the money. he took the jewelry. he took the watch. he's not denying any of it. and that he detrade his company but he insists after 30 years in the business that's the only time he's done it. he's willing to take a positivy graf but they have not asked him to take it. >> did you see that jewelry in his car, jane? >> what does he think of the taper? september? >> reporter: he said the jewelry added up to -- he had it appraised to less than $10,000. he wanted to give it back today. basically he feels that between his bond and the watch and the jewelry he will be discouraging all the ill gotten gains. he's getting the situation amended where he will be allowed to travel outside california and throughout the united states. >> 30 year career down the tubes for 70 grand. jane wells, thank you.
>> reporter: also one other thing. he said that when he was first approached by the fbi and admitted to everything he warned them when this hits the media it's going to explode because it involves herbal life. >> he knew. jane, thank you. jane with the exclusive. you tweeted, we trade. let's get to your tweets. mike, this one is for you. i like to hear about bp or all trade in printing money. >> that can also be a warning sign. bp has legal head winds. ult tree ya. obama wants to increase tax on cigarettes so they may not be able to do that. cigarette sales expected to drop. >> steven grasso, buy or sell lynn energy. >> it's questionable from before. they took over barry.
if that's a bad headline that could put this in question. i would probably stay away. >> pety, boeing? >> when you look at boeing right now that backlog is tremendous. you're getting a small yield but the valuation seem fair. i think in ge i love the direction they have gone in energy, the fact that they're getting the mining in the low end they're both managed well and will do well. >> josh, reits, time to buy in high yield? >> very high sensitivity to interest rates, heavy leverage in the capital structure. i would avoid it. >> stay tuned. [ male announcer ] with wells fargo advisors envision planning process, it's easy to follow the progress you're making toward all your financial goals. a quick glance, and you can see if you're on track. when the conversation turns to knowing
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with rates in the short term. i would be bir under 50. >> guy. >> con co phillips, it seems like they have gotten their mojo my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now! hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money"ful welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, my job is not just to intertain you but to coach you, call me, 1-800-743-cnbc. sick of this federal reserve guessing game yet? sorry. it's a gigantic issue. it will control events no matter what we do t. dow climbing 110