tv Fast Money CNBC July 10, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
parts of the world which reduces the supply of safe assets. that's an important question and one that we have discussed at the federal reserve. i would say, however, that i do not think that our asset purchase programs are having a significant effect on that supply demand balance. the reason is the very simple point that when we buy assets and our total purchases by the way are a pretty small share of the global amount. anyway, when we buy safe assets we pay for them with bank reserves which is another safe assets and one that's more liquid. i don't think our purchases are affecting the net supply of safe assets. it's an issue that we thought about for example margining policy. >> let me ask about creative design policies. in the last five years the fed
has navigated a mine field of taking actions that were at the edge of traditional fed policy, sometimes generating questions about fed independence and challenges to fed independence and of course the central bank unless is a topic that many of the audience members study and work on. can i ask where you think the greatest threat to central bank independence comes from? is it from the innovative policies on the macro prudential side and the dealing with individual financial institutions or the aggregate financial sector or on what i call the traditional policy side dealing with the similar lus ty role. >> let me say a preliminary thing which is i don't think that the central bank should be equally independent in all of its functions. there are good reasons to have independence in monetary policy
making subject to a mandate or subject to objectives set by the democratic parliament or legislature. we understand those reasons having to do with avoiding a short run political intervention in monetary policy and the like. many of its other activities of course as a bank regulator while we belief that bank regulators should be independent to make their own judgments about the quality of banks, i don't think the fed can presume to be anymore or less independent in that function than is the occ or some other bang regulator. it's just another aspect of our activities. in our provision of payment services there probably is no real case for independence and it's entirely appropriate for the congress to ask questions about what we're charging for those services and how we're providing them and so on. it depends how much on the
aspect of the particular activity that the central bank is involved in. independence is a subtle concept. what it means varies according to the particular activity or particular function. there's always -- again, if we're worried about independence, the place where all central banks worry about independence is mostly in the monetary policy side. there i think the best we can do is to do our very best to meet the mandate that congress has given us. if we don't meet that mandate then they would have or if we don't meet it and can't show why we didn't meet it at least they would have a reasonable basis to ask why. so i think in the long run the best thing we can do to maintain monetary policy independence is to show that we will take all reasonable measures to meet the objectives that the congress has
set for us. of course that's what we intend to do. >> shifting from the domestic pressures to the international pressures, some have argued that in the last few years the policies of the fed and those of some of the european central bank have risked igniting a currency war of sorts. i'm curious as to whether you view that as an inappropriate argument that is simply wrong or whether there's validity to the worry but simply was a cost that had to be born to achieve the other objectives by the fed. >> i gave remarks at a london event for a retirement and appropriate of today's discussion i used historical example. i made the distinction of during the 1930s during the great depression as countries left the gold standard, their currencies
temporarily depreciated relative to other countries and had a temporary trade advantage because of that. but overtime as all the countries left the gold standard exchange rates normalized, went back to where they started from. nevertheless, the whole world was better off because there was a global expansion that was needed at that time in the 1930s. that was a positive sum gain. it was a situation in which everybody gains because the benefits of -- in that particular context the benefits of growth enhancing domestic policies spilled over into other economies. i contrasted that with the smooth holy tarriff because each country was trying to divert
tried in its own favor at the expense of its trading partners. as that activity continued and reprisals and pay back continued, actually it destroyed the global trade pattern and was very costly to everybody. what has this got to do with your question i'm sure you're wondering. what it has to do with today is that it's one thing to use trade or other kinds of interventions to divert -- to artificially weaken your economy or otherwise divert exports to your own producers at the expense of other countries. that's a very different thing from a situation where countries are using monetary policy appropriately to achieve domestic growth, domestic
reflags and that growth spills over and helps the economies of other countries as well. so i think that's very much the difference, that the exchange rate effects and the currency effects are really secondary. what's important is that each country provide the necessary monetary accomodation or fiscal accomodation to achieve its potential output. this i should say, this view is not just my own. this is a view that's been adopted by the g 7 and the g 20 as a reasonable way of thinking about policy in different countries. so in doing accommodative monetary policy in the united states, again, we are very much consistent with that g20 perspective. i guess i would close this answer by saying if you look at
the dollar it's not exactly falling recently. it seems to be doing okay. so i don't think we are trying to divert exports away from anybody else. what we're trying to do is achieve domestic growth using the tools that we have. >> this next question is going to take you back to the historical perspective of your talk. i guess it really has two components to it. the first is over the first 100 years of the federal reserve do you believe that on balance the fed has given too little weight to the issues of regulation and financial stability relative to other objectives. the second part of the question is that in looking at the lessons over this period are there -- there tends to be a focus on issues associated with the great depression in looking at the early years of the fed do you think there are other important periods in say the first 50 years of the fed that can convey important lessons for thinking about current policy? >> sure. there are many interesting
episodes. on the financial stability, the fed of course was founded, as i mentioned, was founded for the purpose of preserving financial stability. it had some success early on. then, of course, the great depression came and for various reasons stigma was mentioned earlier but i think there were other reasons as well including lack of sufficiently aggressive policy on the part of the federal reserve. the fed didn't meet its financial stability mandate during the 30s. obviously that was the most e greejous example of failure on that front. the less attention to financial stability during the period from 1934 until 1980 or so would be sort of understandable because of structural changes and regulatory changes that was of course a very calm period in u.s. financial markets.
as a result, the tension to financial stability became less over time. as the chairman reminded us earlier it's not just recently that we've seen financial stability issues, the mexican debt crises, the latin american debt crises, the crises of the 1990s, the wall street stock market crash and other events should have reminded us and did remind us that financial instability remains a concern, remains a problem. what we lack, what didn't happen fortunately of course is that between 1934 and 2007 there was no financial collapse of the magnitude that had serious negative implications for the u.s. economy. now that we have seen that, and as i mentioned in my remarks, that i think is a very important
lesson in the federal reserve and other central banks have accordingly elevated financial stability, increased the resources we put into helping to preserve financial stability and greatly increased the emphasis we put on that particular objective. so i think there was a long period where the fed didn't pay much attention to it but it was a kind of an accident related to the fact that we did have a very calm global financial environment for quite a long time. we now know, of course, that financial stability is extremely important even in advanced industrial countries like the united states and i suspect we won't forget that lesson for quite a while. >> this is another question from one of our historians. given the political tone in washington today, if the for the record reserve act had to be enact, how do you think it would differ from the existing
legislation and could it be passed? >> there would be more than one federal reserve bang in the whole western part of the united states. that's my answer. >> on that note my last question is a legacy question. at some point -- and i'm not going to ask you when you think this might be -- your time as chair will conclude. now, i happen to know and some people here probably do that you already have a legacy that i believe no other fed reserve chairman has which is that there is an inter change on i 95 which is named the bernanke interchange. i'm challenge anyone in the economic history group to find another highway system named after a federal reserve governor. seriously, as you think about the legacy that you will have as a chairman of the fed, what would you hope the high points of that would be and where would
you like to see people focusing on the contributions? >> of course that's going to be for others to determine. i would hope to be able to say several things. first, i came into the federal reserve as a governor 11 years ago with a lot of interest in communication and transparency. i think in the last 11 years, the federal reserve has made significant strides in that area including, for example, as i mentioned at the press conference, the stating of a numerical objective for a medium term inflation and other communications as well. that's something that i think is
quite -- has changed over the last decade. for better or worse, of course, i was at the fed during the crises in the after math. we have the future again will judge the response to that. what is certainly true is that the federal reserve as an institution has changed sharply in terms of structure and resources being devoted to financial stability questions. i would say that this relates both to the actions we took at the height of the crises which i viewed as bringing wisdom back to the modern context but also the work we're doing now to try to reduce the risk that another financial crises will hit some day. that includes monitoring, our oversight of systemically important firms, our stress tests which i think is an
important development in financial regulation and more generally our macro prudential approach. as important as that is we try to identify risks and vulnerabilitie vulnerability. people have to judge whether we confronted it successfully. we've used new policies to do that. we have, in fact, changed to some extent our approach to one that is more tied to the forecast and tries to lay out in detail how policy will react overtime to changing conditions. there are some changes in monetary policy. finally, i think the federal reserve is a remarkable institution. it has a superb staff, a great
deal of expertise and i hope that during the time that i've been there that we have succeeded in preserving those strengths and adding to those strengths, increasing the amount of expertise we have in critical areas like some of the financial stability areas, increasing inter sglin area work and making it stronger as an institution going forward. we had a fascinating day today talking about 100 years of the federal reserve. it's a central institution in the united states. it has a very, very important role in the economy and in the lives of ordinary americans. it's critical that it be a strong, well managed, well staffed institution. these internal management issues
which are visible to insiders are important because they're the factors that determine how strong an institution this will be over the next 100 years. >> chairman bernanke, thanks for joining us today. >> thank you. >> welcome to "fast money." good evening. you've been watching fed chairman ben bernanke at the national bureau of economic reserve conference live in cambridge, massachusetts. he wrapped up the question and answer portion of his speech. it's fair to say that he was a bit more market moving than some expected. >> i was going to say here's a couple of quick points from this. first the fact that he talked at all. we didn't even know if the questions put to him were going to be about what happened given what happened in the last 100 years. whether there was a clear message is another story.
markets are down. he's trying to distinguish between the taper and the tighten. saying the conditions are still too weak on the economy for them to exit monetary accomodation any time soon. that of course is when we started to see markets rip and the dollar weaken. what's interesting is this is a speech that is emphasizing financial stability so the extent to which the fed might look at the housing market as overvalued might spur this conversation. this is going to be the important question for right now. markets are telling us we'll buy it and in fact we'll buy stocks well. >> kelly evans, thanks so much. the traders with us this evening as they always are, what's your take away, guy, from this. >> the fact that he spoke at length and the fact that you see yields going lower. say what you want about it but in terms of the market he's
doing everything right seeing the spike here. is this going to be a replay of may 22, the last time he spoke to this magnitude and you saw the reversal in the market. if you give up the ghost tomorrow maybe that gives us the next leg down in the s&p. i wouldn't necessarily trust this to the upside of the s&p. >> it's a sizable move lower in the dollar. you've seen rates move. dan nathan, what do you think it means to the market? is this a change? >> i don't think it's a change. listen, the impamarket had spokn a lot of ways, moved up almost 100 points in the last few weeks. people have gotten comfortable with the notion that the fed was going to be buying less points in the next six months. they made a good point that they're not going to be raising rates. i don't think that was up for debate. when you have a rally i can't remember the last time between
5:00 or 4:30 and 5:30 that we have had the dollar move this, s&p futures have moved and bonds. if you want to go in tomorrow and you think it's clear and buy that opening, if you have that reversal it could get nasty. we've seen two of them, may 22 and the one in june. >> a few weeks ago. that preceded that move down to 1560. we rallied 100 points. be a little careful tomorrow. >> but you do get the feeling from some of these comments, karen, that the fed chairman was almost admitting in a sense that they tried to talk the market down just a bit to relieve some of the volatility that could be there later on saying the june 19th time line may have avoided more volatility later given the qe time line in june may have avoided more volatility down the road. >> i always think he's sort of parsing through -- that we have to parse through what he says carefully. >> maybe this was the first time
in a while that we didn't, that he was a bit more clear in the message that he was trying to deliver. >> he may have been a bit more clear but if you look at the comments from to the from the minutes there was all kinds of murkiness, more dissenting opinions. the gold move is also interesting. i agree with dan, i would not jump in on the open and buy stocks. >> greg, it's good to talk to you this morning. what do you make of what the fed chairman had to say? what do you take as knew? >> kelly was remarking on this, the increasing oefrts that he and everybody is trying to make between the quantitative tapering and the maintenance of the low interest rates and
perhaps counkobting it longer. 6.5 percent unemployment is not only a trigger for raising interest rates, they could keep them low for a significant period of time beyond that. they have always said they're data dependent and here you have the chairman saying, well, we got that 6.5% out there but we're not as dependent on it as you think. i detect an effort to put more weight on the zero interest rate and dial back the stimulus that comes through buying bonds. >> reassuring the markets that it's going to be here, not to worry? >> it's more about concerns that the economy has not reached that magical reinforcing takeoff period. they say they're getting ready to dial back quantitative easing gut gchlts dp growth is lousy.
you get the message coming through the minutes that there are a lot of concerns with the chairman and other folks at the fed about the state of the economy. he's saying even if they move back on the bond buying they're going to be there with the low interest rate as long as it takes to make sure the economy pulls through. >> the market is taking this as a sigh of relief if you look at the way they're moving this evening. >> this message that the fed, everybody from the fed, has pounded home day after day that they are not about to raise rates. i think it's finally get k through. by the way, a lot of the selloff in bonds has been a lot of mechanical force selling, people exiting a very crowded trade. it may be the case that some of that pressure is relieved and we're going back to a world of normal trading. >> is there no change then in the so called taper time line or is there more fluid than we
thought. >> i'm scratching my head over that. up until today i was in the camp that they were going to move in september. i was struck by how many voices were concerned about moving too soon. i began to wonder maybe that's not a done deal. but if you had to pin me to a wall, i'd still say september. >> greg ip. good to talk to you this morning. we'll continue to monitor all the big moves. plus the woman who runs gabelli gives you her opinions. more fast is up next. . the last thing i want is to feel like someone is giving me a sales pitch, especially when it comes to my investments. you want a broker you can trust. a lot of guys at the other firms seemed more focused on selling than their clients. that's why i stopped working at my old brokerage and became a financial consultant with charles schwab. avo: what kind of financial consultant are you looking for?
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>> welcome back to "fast money" this evening coming to you from times square. there is a look at the s&p futures which are getting quite a lift following the fed chairman's speech this evening, especially after the question and answer session wrapped up where the fed chairman said highly accommodative policy would be needed for the for seeable future. the market took that as a sign of relief you can see as the futures rise, the dollar drop,
rates improving. i want to talk to barbara marcin. it's nice to talk to you. >> nice to be here. >> poignant given what the fed chairman said, what rates are doing. what's your take away? >> i think one of the things we do is we sometimes confuse transparency with making a decision and he tries to be as clear as he can about his thinking but doesn't know where the economy is going in the next year or so. he admitted in his q and a that he has slightly higher growth rate and i think that has been confusing in the last few weeks. we are clearly in a rising interest rate environment in which he is trying to say let's price in higher rates at my pace. that's not usually the way it works. >> the impact on the way you're investing will be what forward and especially taking into consideration what he said this evening? >> we're looking at a rising interest rate in the next 1, 2,
3 years finally. we've been anticipating that but at the same time looking at a somewhat firm although low economy, firm with housing and autos, energy industry and perhaps that might pull in more manufacturing. we're looking at those two things and at the same time we're looking at a meade okayerly valued market. we're looking at things that can benefit from the rising interest rates. >> understanding your time frame is two, three years, cme group has had an unbelievable move over the last couple of months. it makes a lot of sense, right? >> yes. >> does that move scare you? that's a scare that rallied 20, 25% in the last month and a half. >> it's one of the stronger performers in the funds. we are pricing the outlook in
the next one to three years. i would start a position here and on a pull back add to it. it's going to benefit from rising interest rates and futures and options on those rates which has been lacking in business over the last few years. very little revenue in earnings growth. it's a longer term trend but i would start a position here. >> clearly you like dividend growth. what's a threshold or do you have one that needs to pay x%? >> no. the company doesn't need to pay a dividend. aig is one of the larger holdings and it doesn't pay a dividend yet. it's total return but we find that companies that can pay a cash dividend and do usually have more confidence in the earnings and the growth of their earnings. so it's part and parcel. >> don't you think it's possible now that the market reads the bernanke of this evening much differently than it read the bernanke of a few weeks back or
any of the fed speakers where it seems to be more accommodating this evening, that rates will react accordingly, that they will be lower than people like you and others who think that they may creep up and couldn't that impact the way that you're investing, the kind of stocks that you should be looking for? >> certainly that's possible and certainly the market seems to be saying, okay, we thought we heard the end of the buying programs by year end and exiting by 2014 and maybe we're not hearing that now. maybe the genie is out of the bottle. usually the market doesn't go along with what its told to do but prices it in quickly. i think rates will rise this engineer. >> barbara, good to talk to you. let's go to josh lipton on what's moving. >> post bernanke you're seeing interesting moving. among commodity names, you are
seeing gold push up here. also some of these gold minors are moving, nem and abx. >> microsoft gaering up to unveil an organization plan. and rick sher lan on what he's expecting out of mr. balmer. (announcer) scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. with scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading.
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where interest rates may go in the near future. what's the read now on financials? >> two ways to look at it. the one thing i would be concerned about, the last runup has been on the steepening healed curve. if we see it tomorrow flatten a bit because of his comments -- >> you very well might. >> you might. i'm going to watch the financials tomorrow. if you see them weaken then i would say you might want to get short. >> should you be apprehensive right now to buy the financials? >> a little bit. we'll get a good look on friday. that's when jpmorgan will report. that will give us clarity. i want to hear what they think. this may be a knee-jerk reaction. it might be more muted tomorrow. >> i can't imagine much has changed. when you think about it, this takes off the table that they were going to raise rates, i don't think anybody out there thought they were going to raise rates any time soon.
right now the bond vigilantes got in there and rates started going up and held up for a while. it seems like we're likely to touch three percent because if the data continues to get better they're going to get in front of it. >> i'm not convinced the data is getting better. i actually think they're heading back down to two than closer to three. the banks didn't trade well today in the first place. >> at least they were by midday. >> anyway, so again, cause for concern. >> we're watching currencies a whole basket of them. mark chandler is on the phone right now. he's the global head of currencies at brown brothers. welcome. good to talk to you. >> pleasure to be here. >> your take away from this evening is what? >> i think the market is tracing in. most people expected to be
tapering in october. i think the market wag moving ahead of itself. we thought even under the next federal reserve chairman we assume is going to take the post starting in january. we think the market was leaning on a long dollar and forced to liquidate the dollar. while the u.s. session is closed it's a little before the asian sessions is open. the take away message is bernanke is more doveish than the market was prepared for. >> more than you expected? >> no. we have been leaning towards later this year, not september, october, more likely early next year. >> interesting. >> mark it's brian kelly. the one thing that was going around today was what does taper mean? a lot of people were talking about -- many at the fomc thought they would end bond purchase by this year which would mean starting in september
a steep and fast taper. where are you on this if you are saying they're going to start in october? how fast do they taper? >> the primary surveys significant that the primary dealers that hold consensus that the first tapering will be about 20 billion dollars. that still allow is for even if you assume they start in october, allows for something like $450 billion of long term assets to be purchased here in the second half. >> is that $20 billion a month that they would do? >> right now they're doing $85 billion. we are talking about the primary dealers. what the market expects would reduce it by $20 billion. >> mark, thanks very much. upnext young brand is getting a boost after hours.
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>> welcome back to "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site. let's get to josh lipton on young brands. >> scott, we are watching yum brands. beats on the bottom line, just misses on the top line, reaffirms 2013's earnings growth. sales up 1% in the u.s., down 20% in china. expected to recover over the rest of the year and be positive in the fourth quarter. scott, back to you. >> bk, the headline down 20% in comps in china, enough to scare people. some thought it could be worse. >> that's probably the reaction you're seeing now. we all knew there was a problem with chicken in china and nobody wanted to go to kfc. the chart still looks so ugly. i don't think you can get any read on this after hours action or the trading action. for me it's a stay away. >> right. but if china has bottomed, if
the worst fears are now over -- >> i don't think the worst fears are over for china. >> don't these numbers -- >> not yum brands kfc. >> nobody likes this? >> i don't think you can buy it. it's bumped up against these levels a few times. it's a no touch. to beak's point. the data out of china has not been great. you put something on twitter this morning china whether it's slowing at their own hand or not it doesn't mean. >> microsoft announcing that the company will announce a reorganization tomorrow. rick sherlund is watching that stock and he joins us live in the house. your expectations tomorrow are what? >> i think it's more of a realignment than a mainlier restructuring. some investors are anticipating cost cutting moves. i don't think this is primarily what this is about.
ballmer had articulated before a devices and service strategy. i think this is more about aligning people and organizations to focus on delivering those. for example, windows code is in windows. it's in windows phone and in x box. you don't want three cooks in the kitchen. put them all in the same division. we're going to be doing a lot of realignment. it's good because you're going to be focusing on the services business, cloud services. it suggests where they're going in the future which is probably a positive. >> what i hear you saying though, the tone of your voice suggests to me unimpressed? >> yes but there are three other events over the last month. i think they might bring the financial analyst meeting back at the end of july. it's a little late to tell us now. maybe an abbreviated meeting to talk about the implications of moving to a services model. the other thing is earnings next thursday, next week and the fourth thing will be shareholder
activism. during the month of august value act will make it public that they're entering a proxy contest for a board seat. they will articulate half a dozen things that they will do and it's going to be impressive for investors. >> including what? getting rid of ballmer? >> i'm not sure how explicit they would be on that. what they will articulate is first you have 66 billion dollars of cash off shore. let's borrow against it and buy back 22% of the stock. let's provide tax on the foreign source of income and give it back to the shareholders. double the dividend from three to six percent. investors will say this sounds good. proposing an alternative agenda. other things, i'm not sure how far they want to go, how much glass they want to break to offend management but probably
enough to convince iss that they deserve a board seat. >> rick, you've been spot on with the stock since it was 22 and a half bucks. just as they seem to be straightening their act out though some of people they sell to seem to be having problems of their own. given the run the stocks had they have to crush numbers for this run to continue. otherwise you can see this sell off. >> earnings will be down year over year. it will not appear that way on the surface because they have technology guarantees that are reversed so it will look like earnings are up ten percent but if you adjust for these unusual events it's down. it's not going to be great. the company still struggles for growth. they can show you maybe, six, seven percent growth.
most of the weakness is china. there's 90% priorsy in china so if there's an area you don't care about it's probably china. i don't think that that's the key driver to the stock. i think the ree alignment around moving to the cloud in a services act architecture and disclosures from value. that's the big event. >> rick, thanks. still ahead lots of action in the emerging markets today. mike khouw lays out the options after the break. ably the car. cause as you get older you start breaking down. i love my car. i want to take care of it. i have a bad wheel - i must say. my car is running quite well. keep your car healthy with the works. $29.95 or less after $10 mail-in rebate at your participating ford dealer. so you gotta take care of yourself? yes you do. you gotta take care of your baby? oh yeah!
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>> welcome back. options traders are seeing heavy volatility in the emerging markets etf. you have to wonder whether things are going to be the same tomorrow given the fed chairman. everything is in play if you believe the message tonight changesed at all? >> i don't think it changed that much and i don't think the guy who rolled a bearish bet that they actually put on last april. they traded 180,000 contractor so in last april in emerging markets. emerging markets has dropped ten percent since then. today they took a substantial portion of that off and buying almost 250,000 of tho
>> following the fed chairman this evening, tomorrow is certainly going to be an interesting day on the street. let's take a look at what the futures look like. a lot of people in the market are going to be trying to figure out how doveish was the fed chairman tonight. what does it all mean? highly accommodative policy needed for the foreseeable future. those were the words tonight. futures higher, take a look at yields falling off of their highest levels. the dollar was dropping, gold is on the move and we'll give you our final trades as we go around the horn. mike khouw. >> gold is going to be lower, if you see the futures higher that might be a got opportunity to but some puts. >> tonight we get australian jobs numbers. tomorrow morning if that's a bad
number you can short fxa. >> fedex is not bill actman's pick to click. >> karen? >> time to take money off the table. well point had a great run. >> follow me on twitt twitter @scottwapnercnbc. cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. in recent years, i have to tell you, i think stocks have become the most hated commodity in existence! they're certainly hated -- well, let's say any time more than i came