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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  July 30, 2013 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT

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>> karen? >> gnc put up very, very good numbers but the stock is actually now getting closer to fairly priced. time to sell. >> guy? >> airlines have been interesting. you know stream rock well my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. some people want to make friends, i just want to make you money. proprietary versus commodity! you stay in the stocks of
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companies with propriety technology, you win. you stick with the one that's commodity and unless it's incredibly strong, you get your head handed to you. it plays out every day and today was no different. sometimes people have a hard time recognizing what's commodity and what's propriet y proprietary. the commodities need to compete on price. the proprieties don't have to compete at all. starbucks inspires -- now that
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evolution has been bought, it brew other drinks that can be found everywhere. that's all propriety going commodity. the other day dupont signalled it wand to get out of its cash cow division that made commodity ingredients for paint. there are dozens of companies that make this commodity. it's been holding back the value of the entire company. just the acknowledgement that she might get rid of it has vaulted dupont 10%. even if it does bring in a huge amount of cash. just yesterday ppg sold its stake in transitions, a sunglass company, for $1.73 billion. transitions have been propriety
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but new technologies have made it less special so the ceo decided it was time to cash out. now let's talk about the dog eat dog world of commodities. if you asked me what the least voluble, most easiest product to come odd tiez on earth, i would have said fertilizer. the only way to keep the price up is to informally limit production. an outfit called uralkali is going to flood the market with
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potash. this market is not about the long term. it is about chaos. as one after another analyst down graded it, it turned out it was like a slap happy cartel all along. it can lead to a phenomenal set, repeated up side surprises and that is what happened to international paper under vigorous leadership. there is nothing less propriety than uncoated sheet paper. commodity! same with container board. do you care what kind of card
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board the amazon supplies come in? we saw a similar transformation with the airlines. they used to compete on price everywhere, ripping each other's longs out. not anymore. it's a beautiful thing to behold. and it is why i remain solid behind usaairways, which reported a remarkable quarter. i'm willing to give delta the benefit of the doubt. for years now digital operators is a friendly duopoly. stocks seem to be rolling over. flash memory stocks are also under pressure. you know what that is? it's a prolonged period of no new capacity coming on but now we're seeing lots of capital
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equipment that could create business next year. a lot of you have been asking about micron. they also produce d-rams. the hope with micron, the one i share, is that the d-ram business after being super competitive is settling down into a benign oligopoly. one reason i like semper semi, though, when you see that transition, you got a winner. you have to be aware of technology. this is the evolution up of the food chain. later in the show we're going to talk about underarmor. that's fine earring new technology allowing them to charge for for workout shirts.
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and vf corp. and old time heritage brands, i zod, they can't compete. they're not productive enough. producing generic drugs, that's like producing fertilizer. only you have the low r -- only the guys with the lowest cost production can make decent money. nothing is more propriety than an uber compound. they can charge hundreds of dollars for little pills. the returns from pepsico, coca-cola and drch. pepper are paltry in america.
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before you buy a stock ask yourself can anyone make this country's product, if there's anything that can't be duplicated, differentiates, no one makes -- whoa! if the answer is no, no one can compete, then, well, you got a good one. but if the answer is the exception, unless it the low-cost producer who is selling goods where few others are felling. crushed by a huge happy of foul smelling earnings disappointments. let go to wes in florida. wes. >> hey, jim. i got two questions for you regarding rio. how do you think the fed statement tomorrow will affect the gold crisis? do you think it's a beneficial time to buy gold? >> no, i don't think it's beneficial. gold is an investment. i'm not telling people to trade gold.
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carly garner called the bottom in gold but it could go back down. rio, i've had enough house of pain in that mineral group. don't double down on the minerals. it's not worth it. we need to go to mike in new jersey. >> booyah. >> booyah, what's shaking? >> i own raytheon, "rtn, shouldi take money off the table? >> what can i say, buy buy buy, best stock so don't lose it all. keep some on. john? >> calling you from sunny virginia. thanks for all you do for a lot of people. you really helped us out, my family out a lot. here's my question, glw corning. i've been sitting on this darn thing for about five years waiting for it to do something. i know it reported today, it
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beat, it went down. is this dead money or should i stick with it? >> it's funny you used the term dead money, john, because that's precisely what i was going to say. i think corning is dead money. maybe this is it, maybe this is the breakout, the long-awaited multi-year breakout. no, no, no. its end markets just aren't doing well enough. you want end markets in that category -- propriety versus commodity. "mad money" will be right back. >> coming up, crude awakening? the price of the slick stuff had been gushing this year but it has recently given up some gains. is now the time to fuel up on
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energy? and later, head to head. two of the top brands in athletics, both focused on elevation. but like any good matchup, there can only be one winner. which sporty stock should you outfit your portfolio with? it's nike versus under armor just ahead. plus traffic cop, banking, gaming and streaming. your life exists online. we demand more. g don't miss cramer's exclusive all coming up on "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. or give us a call at
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1-800-743-cnbc.
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what the heck has happened with the price of oil? for the past month the price of crude in america is on a huge roll but over the last week it's gotten crushed, falling from $108 a barrel to 83. it's liking like they could be taken in the back room and shot. that's why tonight we're going off the charts. we got to figure this out. we got to figure out where oil is headed. we're going to commodity trader. everyone thousand gold was going much lower and she nailed it a month ago. we asked her helped for a
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special edition. take a look at this daily chart of west texas intermediate crude. the price of crude spiked dramatically. that's really unusual, fueled in part by egypt. then later in june we got a surprise drop in crude inventories that added fuel to the fire. you wonder ffs this caused by traders getting too exuberant for their own good. the new caretaker for the regime in egypt hasn't done anything to interrupt the suez canal and crude has the tendency to come back down. but you want to watch the very bottom, the commitment of traders report. from the commodity futures trading commission, which details the size and direction of positions held by certain
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groups of traders, specifically large speculators, small speculators and commercial hedgers, who are messing around with oil futures because they actually need oil. right now garner says oil can could substantially lower. we saw the large speculator category gobble up long positions in oil in the futures market, which led to a 16% increase in the price of crude. so here are the large, they were biograp buying and that led to the increase. and now garner figures -- in west texas intermediate right here, specifically as of last week, large sfpeculators were
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holding a long position. take a look, the price of crude tends to beat. look at this. isn't this gold? look at that. well, they peaked in the near term. plus garner points out that the last time speculators were making such an impressive, aggressive, bullish bet on crude, the price of oil peaked near $115 a barrel in may of 2011 and then retreated to 95. that's a $20 decline in a few short weeks and then in subsequent months the price of crude went down to $75 a barrel and garner thinks in the absence of any renewed middle east tension, we could see a similar vacuum in pricing. i got to tell you, what that says to me, we have got, yes, another red flag. this worries me. the only way for these long speculators to exit the market
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is by selling. this could lead to a massive liquidation cycle, which could end in much lower prices. check out this chart of september '09 calls. look at this thing. wow. these are options that give you the right to buy west texas crude for $109 a barrel. all right? september. these expired september. looking at these options, garner sees exuberant speculation gone wrong. back in july, crude was $108 a barrel. a big preemmium. that should have been almost flat. now, you'd expect the price of coal options to decline with the price of the underlying security. but garner points out we see a spectacular rise in price
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followed by a staggering fall. the option holders have already left the building. garner thinks the large speculators in the futures market could be next, which could do enormous damage to the price of crude. i want you to take a gander at this chart. garner points out a long-term ceiling of resistance at around $110 a barrel going back for more than two years and this ceiling has held like a charm. this thing cannot get past this ceiling. she won't rule out a retest of the ceiling but that does happen. it does happen. garner believes if it does happen, it will be short lived and the bears will ultimately triumph again in this thing. in other words, it can't get past that thing. if you look at the rsi, relative strength index. the price of crude has come up too far too fast. every other time the rsi has shown an overbought reading, the price of crude has rapidly
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decline. overbought, then next there, overbought then next there. that's important. it is exactly what we're seeing now. it's very compelling evidence, isn't it? garner also points out this chart contains a distracting triangle location. she's saying that's a bearish pattern. this is within the next few months but it might even be the next few weeks. there are seasonal fluctuations. garner knows the price of crude tends to rally in the early summer months but by august it sees significant selling as the driving months come to a close. the charts do not look good to me. west texas crude closing the gap
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with the global price, i'm calling it a one-time move. here's the bottom line. the charts determined by carly garner suggest the future for the price of oil is mr. it. like -- is mr. t like, it contains pain! she's dead right on gold. i bet she's going to be dead right again on this new wildly trading commodity. after the break i'll try to make you more money. >> announcer: coming up, head to head, two of the top brands in athletics, focused on innovation and elevating the industry. but like in any good matchup, there can only be one winner. which sporty outfit should you arm your portfolio with? it's nike and under armor head to head.
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the repairs are guaranteed for life. so call... to talk with an insurance expert about everything that comes standard with our base auto policy. and if you switch, you could save up to $423. liberty mutual insurance -- responsibility. what's your policy? which is the better buy? under armor or nike? we've now got results from both these high quality sports apparel companies. the time has come to give you an important lesson in terms of stock picking. which is better for your portfolio? the smaller $7 billion rapidly growing under armor that put up fantastic earnings or consistent $56 billion kol os us that is nike?
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it's under armor, ua. they reported incredible results, revenue rose 23% year over year. holy cow. gross margin increased by 250 basis points from the year before and a huge raise for your guidance. after underarmor reported last week the stock soared from $61.83 to $69.38. that's incredible. that's a spectacular 12% move in a single session. it was like it had gotten a takeover bid. how about nike? they reported a month ago. while the company delivered better than expected numbers, the up side was good but not anything to write home about. it's innovating like crazy. back in 2011 the company rolled out two new platforms, storm for
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clothing, that can battle the elements and cotton, which by 2016 should together add $500 million to the company's revenues. more recently under armour has come out with this cool black stuff. didn't have it at my outlet store. i don't like to spend full price. the company has a new commitment with the comics to put on their products. and another one, nike's stylin. their new football cleat has been the number one seller in its category. east bay, not ebay, east bay, a partner of foot locker for more than 12 straight weeks. the latest thing from under
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armour are those speed shoes that are actually made in bra factories. these shoes fit like a glove or perhaps like a bra, although i can't be sure. and while the numbers are small this year, they are growing rapidly and could make for a terrific story in 2014. how about nike. come on, man, give nike its due for heavens sakes. they've always been driven. in the call they said they needed to -- this bothered me -- accelerate our agenda. nicky needs to double down in order to maintain their fantastic global position. there is a reason why under armour was able to deliver a wow. they're a junior growth company. it means it's a smaller company expanding off a smaller base and that makes it much easier for them to produce truly amazing
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growth numbers, versus an established giant like nike. under armour is moving into a powerful children base. nike's done that. nike, again, been there, done that, they're a global company. a junior growth stock like under armour has more room to impress and more room to run. but which stock should you buy? that's actually a tricky and different question. under armour rallied 40% year to date, nike up only 22% in the same period. still famous gain but not as good as under armour. under armour sells at 30% next year's prices which seems expressive. there are managers who would pay
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42 times earnings for that growth. however in the end you can't key side this on valuation or even the fundamentals. the truth is nike and under armour appeal to different cohorts of investors. under armour appears to aggressive investors. they can fall just as hard, though i don't think they will, i'm just pointing it out. it's a risk you always need to be aware of. they are two great companies. if you're older, you're an older
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investor and you don't want to worry about a big risk, i would still recommend nike. but if you're a younger investor with all the time in the world to make back money if ever stumbles a little bit, then buy ua! sure under armour delivered a truly amazing wow quarter but if you're an older, more conservative investor, you want something lower risk like nike. but if you're a younger investors and can afford to take risks with your money, then can you afford to own under armour, a higher risk play with a tremendous record and prospects by a hard charging ceo. both represent the best we have
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in this market but only one might be right for you. i want to go to frank to start. >> a big booyah from the university of michigan. go blue. >> how much do we love the blue? the big house. what's going on in the big ho e house? >> a couple years ago somebody led me to a stock called zale and i bought it at 2 and now it's up to 8. what do i do? >> you got a big win. don't let it become a loss. take the gain and let the rest go and you're in great shape. let's go to sol in new york. sol. >> hey, jim. >> hey, sol. >> i was wondering what you thought about american eagle. hasn't moved much this year. >> i can't judge teen-age apparel. there will be times i go to the mall and my daughter will say,
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dad, what kind of moron are you that you bought from american eagle? then the next time she says, dad, why didn't you buy the stuff at american eagle? >> carla. >> my daughter invested in fossil. >> that's a tiger by the tail. your daughter is young enough if we have a tumble in this she can snap back. the inconsistency in this company drives me crazy. maybe a younger person can handle it, i can't. i would not recommend this stock for the squeamish. i think you ain't seen nothing yet. stay with cramer. [ kitt ] you know what's impressive?
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round. are you ready skee daddy. start with john. >> caller: i wanted to get your thoughts on franklin resources. >> i want to buy franklin resources. let's go to gloria in new jersey. >> caller: hi, jim. >> hi, gloria. >> love your show. i'm a 71-year-old grandmother from new jersey, have i five grandchildren, three boys, two girls. >> congratulations. >> caller: and the girls love getting gifts, gift cards for a store called justice, it's for 7 to 14-year-old teens. when i go there, i always find the store very busy for girls
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shopping. i understand the store plans to expand the boys store called brothers. you always say to buy what you know and do your homework. i understand that justice trades under the name of the center, which also has some other stores that i don't shop in but as a company i wonder what you think of the ascena. >> let me take it from there. they've been doing consistent. hey, listen, i like the content but the inconsistency of execution has made it so i feel like i'm in the lion's den in i endorse ascena. and i'm not. let's go to greg in ohio. agreed, greg. >> caller: listen, i have an offshore drilling company, seadrill. they just landed a million dollar contract in brazil. >> no, no, no, just go buy
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schlumberger if you want to go drilling. dariush. >> caller: i want to think say thank you for all your years of wisdom. i want to send a big shout out to my girls and i'm calling about channel adviser. >> ecome, we like ecom. sachs had that 360 thing that really worked. people need a good e-mail strategy. salesforce.com has been a major push for me for five points and i am not backing away. arlene in illinois. >> caller: yes, here i am. okay, i sold 2,600 shares of at&t among other tech stocks last november. i missed the raw naturally.
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do you recommend rebuying it now? >> no, no, verizon at 47 is better than at&t at 35. let's verizon come down to 47 and pull the trigger then. i'm not done. i'm going to carl in pennsylvania. carl. >> caller: hi, jim. my question is about nordic american tanker. >> i think they're going to have a good quarter but it's going to be a trade. if west texas intermediate icoms down, it's going to come down with it but i still endorse the stock. dave. >> caller: first time caller. just a little thank you for all your help out there, knowledge and help, we really appreciate it. >> thank you. >> caller: my question is pengrowth. >> i'm going to stay away, i'm not going to do it. congratulations to all the
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people who listen to us. and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round! >> the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. you'd do that for me? really? yeah, i'd like that. who are you talking to? uh, it's jake from state farm. sounds like a really good deal. jake from state farm at three in the morning. who is this? it's jake from state farm. what are you wearing, jake from state farm? [ jake ] uh... khakis.
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time to check up on a fresh faced ipo that just reported its first quarter as an ipo last night. talking about gigamon, sells software appliances that help companies better manage their networks. it arkcts as a filter, keeping redundant data from going across the wires. publicly traded at $19 and this
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one is actually making money and majority issued neutral ratings. they said the stock is too expensive. fast forward to last night, better than expected revenuerev 44% year over year, terrific guidance for the next quarter. it's now up 84% from where it is priced. let's check in with paul hooper, the ceo of gigamon. welcome to "mad money." >> thank you. >> i often ask people ceos to walk through what you do. you got a client here, i frankly
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do not understand what you do for them. you have the u.s. supreme court? >> we do. we have the u.s. supreme court and the u.s. army and a few others became first-time customers this quarter. >> what do you do for them? do they generate a lot of documents and they only want some to go through? >> it's a perfect example. it has significant volumes of information. as people are starting to move that information, understanding and monitoring and managing the infrastructure that's moving that information is becoming increasingly important. we help them understand the performance, the scale and capacity of their network so they can feed all of the relevant information on to the management systems to give them the insight is the network up, is it down? is it performing? is the application slow? is the application fast? we can help companies provide the right information to those
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tools so they can get the right insight at the right time. >> so how is the library of congress used you? >> so they have a network infrastructure and that network infrastructure has some management tools that they've deployed and they're looking to get those management tools to have much broader visibility across their growing infrastructure. so they take gigamon, the network layer, put gigamon in on top of the network layer and all the monitoring tools sit on top of us. we make sure all the traffic get to the right tool, whatever tool is helping them run to their environment, we make sure that traffic gets to that tool when it's required. >> how about the wrong traffic? what do do you about that? >> the wrong and right is really defined by the customer. so what's right and what's wrong? i'll give a very tangible example, jim. a lot of our customers have moved their networks up.
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you said very eloquently at the start. as networks are getting faster and more significant, the tools that watch those networks are fundamentally being left behind. we help them identify the right traffic and seasoned just the right traffic to the tool. what's the most significant, what's the important application running on the network today? what's the most important location of your network? is it a point of sale transaction? is it a credit card transaction? what is the most important to watch and we'll send that transaction on to the management tool and discard what may be irrelevant in their overall scheme. the people cruising the web may not be relevant at this point in time. we'll find it and send it on to the management and monitoring systems. >> you mentioned brocade as a competitor. i don't want to knock any one company. i don't know whether they're really as competitive. i thought cisco would be and it turns out that cisco is a customer of yours. >> cisco is a customer, a great
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partner. and so we complement the network vendors. so cisco, the hps, the junipers, the brocades, as you mentioned, we complement all of them. we're agnostic to who i work with at the network and tool layer and in doing so, i allow our customers to choose the best solution for them rather than forcing a specific vendor at a point in time. >> we're seeing a lot of big spend by some of these carriers pip know sprint, good quarter, bad quarter, i know stock went in. verizon, at&t. it didn't seem like the service providers popped in this quarter but you did say it's going to be consistent business going forward. >> service provider floats around, jim. it's a lumpy business. they spend a long time analyzing and evaluating and then they'll decide and select and then you tend to get lumpy bookings and
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orders coming in. so it's going to float in and float out. last year 4% and in q1 it's been up, it's been down, it kind of floats around a little bit. it always going to, it's the nature of that business but it still is a very significant and important market to us. we service 3e 50% of the larges mobile provider. >> there are so many companies that come public and they don't seem that great to me and every analyst recommends it. every analyst that covered you that has neutral has to think twice. it's the most compelling ipo we've had this year. paul hooper, thank you so much for coming on "mad money." >> thanks, jim. appreciate the time. >> i love 40% growers. this is the kind of company, a tech company, that's going to be with us a long time. maybe in a marketwide pullback
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you'd be able to get some. "mad money" is back after the break. [ male announcer ] it's time. time to have new experiences with a familiar keyboard. to update our status without opening an app. to have all our messages in one place. to browse... and share... faster than ever. ♪ it's time to do everything better than before. the new blackberry q10. it's time.
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netflix and tesla. i'm only comfortable putting my name on a stock as a buy -- after you've been investing for 33 years, you know what your breaking point is. this rule has kept me out of my share of disasters. other times when i recognize growth is accelerating, i might be willing to take a leap of faith and recommend a stock with no earnings for speculation, knowing if it fallers, there won't be much to show for it. that's gutsier. i don't like to do it but speculating wisely has made me a lot of money. those are rule balancenders and do it with the understanding you might get clobbered. finally there's some that can't be justified along any
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traditional lines. sometimes there are whole armadas of these, as there were at the time of the ticking dot-com bombs. and others are pure lust for the products themselves. amazon, netflix and tesla are just those kind of animals. amazon has been going down there path since inception and dominating the world is expensive, people. if you liked amazon before, you should like it after, even though it's hideously overvalued. netflix. can you make an earnings case for this one if you go out far enough. again, if you like netflix and think the world will like it, too, you can see why it might turn out to be cheap if everything works out internationally, which you
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obviously thinks it will because it works for you. full speed ahead. microsoft and apple should buy it, too. tesla is the toughest. only a handful of people have even test driven a tesla yet the company is valued at $16 billion. the car is fascinating. tesla was able to show a level of profitability that the analysts say was a miracle but it was enough to push the boosters to push the stock hard. tesla shares a lot with amazon and netflix. could see how tesla would run out of gas or battery life. do i like amazon, netflix and tes tesla, i say absolutely, they're the best they are in the class.
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he lures investors and wine goes up in smoke to cloud a scam. all new "american greed" at 9:00 and "the profit" at president obama finally announces his plan for corporate tax reform. but is it a real corporate tax cut? a lot of firms are going to pay more. the whole plan is revenue positive and designed to finance the president at spending projects. there's so much more we don't know about it. also today, we learned homeownership in the u.s. is at a 17 1/2-year low. but you know what, is this really bad? homeownership is not for everyone. and the government should stop subsidizing it. and bravo's million-dollar listing star ryan surhan is go

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