tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC April 10, 2014 4:00am-6:01am EDT
this is "worldwide exchange," the headlines from around the globe, more signs of weakness from china. investors shrug off weaker trade data. markets in europe and asia kicking higher. it returns to the debt market for the first time since its 2010 bailout. demands reportedly reached around 17 billion euros. minutes from the federal reserve reveal an intense debate over the future of -- while a board member tells cnbc exclusively he's not making a u-turn on qe. >> i wouldn't consider this back
pedaling. they said if there is a too prolonged period of low inflation rates, it will also consider unconventional instruments. and back in fashion, shares of luxury sales beat in the first quarter. the best clothing sales were posted in three years. you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. welcome to today's program. to the trade here in europe, 8-2 advancers currently out pacing decliners. it seems more dovish than we might have thought because they
didn't talk about the time line between the end of qe and when rates were going up. now appears that janet yellen saying six months was an off the cuff remark when they talked about a considerable time period between the two events. that's helped u.s. equities up, asian equities up, despite china's export data was down for the second time in march. the ftse yesterday was up 44 points, up another 49 this morning. 0.75% higher as is the xetra dax, the cac up as well as the italian market up as well. we talked about a proposed merger on monday. eu expects an extensive review of the proposed merger between the two cement makers.
we'll show you where we stand with treasuries. maybe we won't. maybe we will. we like to keep you guessing. gilt yields 2.65. greece as well, it looks like there's extensive demand for this 2.5 billion. the ten-year note at the moment, 5.91. it will be interesting to see what yield they get in auction. apparently the government was aiming to look for something around the 5% mark. on the currency crosses, the dollar index has been down at a three-week low. the dollar bull issive gooding up some optimism post those fed minutes. 11.71 this morning. 11.51 is where we were on tuesday. the aussie, breezed through the 94 mark, 94.43 is where we stand
this morning, up at the highest level since november, strong australian employment data today, suggesting the bank of australia won't be doing very much. we'll keep our eyes on sterling, up to 167.83. and euro/dollar, 138.62. we were down at 136.72 last friday. that's where we stand right now here in europe. have they reacted to everything in asia? sri has all the details for us. he's come back from mumbai. good trip, good start to the indian elections, sri. >> it was indeed. the doves of democracy is what they call it. let's switch from one economic superpower in this region to another. there's a lot of excitement, a lot of interest in china today. the data was of interest as you said, ross. we got the trade numbers and it
was mixed. the commodity imports were strong, especially off of iron ore. then we had the headline numbers, imports and exports disappointed. they missed expectations by a large margin. in fact, they were negative and the market was expecting to see sizable improvement in import and export activity. still, the greater china markets took it in their stride. and then came some pretty important news on the capital market liberalization front because we got some news from the securities regulator in beijing allowing cross-border stock investment between hong kong and shanghai. the securities firms got a big lift, some of them up by almost 6%. now, bear in mind that this is a pilot program for what we understand it's a six-month program and under these new
rulings, the securities regulator has said it will allow mainland investors to trade shares in designated companies listed in hong kong at the same time to let hong kong investors buy shares in companies listed in shanghai. this is a step in the right direction towards liberalization. but some are describing it as a slow slam as opposed to a big bang. still, the markets seem to like this news. they're picking themselves up for after a fairly lackluster performance earlier on in the session. strong gains, the shanghai comp, similarly for the hang seng. that's where we stand at the moment. ross, back to you. >> sri, thanks. catch you later. greece has opened the books on the sale of a five-year government bond. presale demand way outstripping supply. demand has exceeded 17 kbl euros. the government as we understand it is looking for the yield to be around 59% mark.
joining us is nicholas spirit. thanks for joining us. >> thank you. >> the fact that we could have strong demand and that sort of yield, does that tell us more about greece or is that telling us more about general risk appetite at the moment? >> i think certainly it's the latter. what we're seeing in peripheral bond markets over the last several months, is essentially was the stuff of fiction almost two years ago. there's been a change in the sentiment. it's been one giant meltup. it's basically what mr. draghi was actually talking about several months ago. you have positive, you know can be contagion. this is positive contagion on steroids almost.
>> yes. so how far can it go? >> it's gone -- it's already gone extremely far. i mean, greece was, of course, on the sharp end of the crisis. this was a country that was almost perceived to be crashing out of the eurozone 24 months ago. and it's now being able -- it's now paying a sub-6% yield for ten-year debt. this is roughly 80 basis points above where spanish yields, spanish ten-year yields stood last june, just last june. so the rally in southern european bond -- >> spanish yields last june were
at -- >> spanish yields after the fed let the tapering genie out of the bottle, ten-year spanish debt was yielding roughly 5.1, 5.2% last june. obviously it came down after that. this just shows you the extent of the rally. but i think the key point here is that this rally is almost farcical now. it throws the glaring disconnect between sentiment and fundamentals into even sharper -- >> there is that. i suppose what is the risk? if you believe the eurozone holds, you believe greece stays in that eventually there has to be a convergence. we've made a lot of convergence. you have to ask us, what is the ultimate risk at the moment that you'll not get paid back on this
paper? >> you just hit the nail on the head. we have convergence. it's convergence in the bond market, eerily reminiscent of what we saw in the runup to this crisis. we still have divergence in the real economy. we have convergence in the debt markets amid divergence in the real economy. now, that's telling you something. the reason we're quite troubled by this rally is that it's happening at a time when the cat is out of the bag as far as the eurozone is concerned. investors are now patiently aware that this is very much a heterogeneous block, not a homogenous bond market. >> they fundamentally do not believe anybody is going to break off or anything is going to happen. what i'm saying is, where is the
risk on this paper -- if you believe you're going to get paid back, where is the risk. >> the risk is immense. just a cursory glance at the dire straits of greece's economy and towering debt, even if one takes the view that the composition of the debt is a lot more favorable right now, that the financing of it is a lot more secure, just shows that this is an unsustainable situation here. what we're actually worried about is the underlying problem. the underlying problem is that the governance of the eurozone is still extremely -- is still very weak. you do not have a proper fiscal union to shore up a monetary one. >> we're getting this out of dow jones. greek bond sale to raise 3 billion euros at a yield of
4.95%. they apparently attracted more than 20 billion euros worth of demand. >> we knew this bond sale would go swimmingly well. it's going swimmingly well because there is a reach for yield. there is a hunt for yield. greece has been reclassified as an emerging market. that opens it up to a wider investor base, although i think that does injustice to other emerging markets. other emerging markets have much stronger fundamentals. >> always good to see you. meanwhile, suspected car bombs exploded outside a bank of greece building in central athens early this morning. there were no reported injuries after the attack which comes on the eve a visit by the german chancellor angela merkel. ireland will also be auctioning off long-term debt today. the ntma will hold a sale of
ten-year paper with results due in around an hour. recent personnel shake-up at the bank of england might make the outlook for this year's policy more uncertain. with unemployment above the threshold and with inflation falling, consensus is for no change at today's meeting. what will the focus be on this meeti meeting? >> ross, the weather is sunny outside the bank of england and sunny for the uk economy. earlier in the week we had had the four consecutive upgrade from the imf about uk growth and people are saying if the things are so well, if we have such a booming recovery, remember we had good production in industrial production figures
and manufacturing earlier in the week as well, why are we keeping to this emergency level interest rates? and where one of the reasons is debt. in the bank of england, that's what the mpc will be talking about. the imf warned that the uk was the third most indebted country in the entire world, after ireland and portugal in terms of household debt. 95% of gdp and when you look at the banks, they're no better. there are about 2.5 times gdp, a whopping 3.5 trillion pounds. that's a massive amount of debt. to any increase in interest rates from the bank of england is likely to choke off our recovery and could cause a much bigger shock rate than people think, even though we are thinking that the economy is going well and going gang busters. in the mpc, we're expecting no change today. people are talking about the
shake-up potentially making it more possible for hawkish moves and the big question, i guess, ross is, are they going to do anything to rates before the election next year or will it be after the election? because what we know is that the government is really pinning its hopes on this huge economic recovery that has made britain the biggest growth story out of all of the developing nations at the moment. >> yes. it's a fair thing now. the interesting thing is whether we're going to see financial -- the financial policy committee being used ahead of the monetary policy committee to make tweaks to the uk economy first. >> i think you're right. one of the things mark carnie, the bank of england governor has said, it's not just monetary policy that helps sustain a healthy economy. we have other tools in our kitty
box as it were, and one of them we're going to see later this month, that's the mortgage market review. that will bring in measures to try and control this massive house boom we've seen in recent years. remember, we have an increasing divide as well between london on the one hand, property prices going off the scale, 1 % in the last year going up and the rest of the uk which has also seen an increasing transaction, increase in house prices as well. people are talking about the bank of england stepping into maybe curtail some of that frothiness in the market. things like the government's flagship policy of help, does that need to be changed? does the financial policy committee need to do anything else? those bubbles should be looked at and will be talked about in the bank of england today. >> thank you for that. plenty more to come from outside the bank of england.
we have extended coverage today for that decision. that programs starts at 12:00 cet. it's due at 12:00 london time, 1300 cet. the treasury secretary is urging europe to take action on the threat of deflation. while the ecb thinks risk is limited. more on the debate, coming up. ♪ [ banker ] sydney needed some financial guidance so she could take her dream to the next level. so we talked about her options. her valuable assets were staying. and selling her car wouldn't fly.
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you're watching "worldwide exchange." the u.s. treasury secretary urged europe to do more to tackle the threat the deflation. speaking to cnbc's steve liesman exclusively, jack lew outlined the action he would like to see taken. >> the risk of low demand and the risk of deflation is something that they need to be very alert to and they need to take a little more, not a little less. >> so those are the views of jack lew. but what is the view of yens wideman? >> actually it sounds a little bit different, what mr. wideman, the president of germany's
central bank, the bundesbank, had to say. he was saying in the interview, he's seeing deflationary risks as pretty limited. also he was actually not going to travel to washington. he was telling me to sort of be on one page with the u.s., also the imf, because he thinks the bundesbank thinks, that the economic recovery in the eurozone is actually stronger than those voices or those people are thinking. and that by the economic recovery picking up here in the eurozone, also inflation will pick up in the eurozone, at least in the medium term horizon, he was reiterating inflation will be closer to 2% after three years from now. so that doesn't really -- that doesn't really call for a lot of action for now. but i also had to ask him where
he is now standing when it comes to quantitative easing because mario draghi at least seemed to, alluded to the fact that everybody is standing behind him and the idea of quantitative easing. but there was back pedaling earlier this week. take a listen to what he said about that. >> you have to see two points. it's the projected inflation that matters to us, the forecasted inflation rates. the forecast inflation rates. a lot of the decline has been driven by energy prices, factors outside our influence. our expectation is that the inflation rate will gradually rise over the future. >> mario draghi at least alluded to the fact that you as well are now in favor of quantitative
easing but there was some back pedaling as well by other governing council member, not only you. where is the governing council standing. >> i wouldn't consider this back pedaling. i think you have to see what the governing council declared. the governing council said if there is a too prolonged period of low inflation rates, it will also consider unconventional instruments. and there's a range of these unconventional instruments and they're different in effectiveness. they differ in the risk and side effects. we'll also have to consider the limits of our mandate and the limit limits that the treaty delineates. >> but in your opinion, does the treaty allow the ecb to buy government bonds when it went into this quantitative easing scenario? or is it more treasuries or
anything else. >> that's a point we'll have to discuss in the governing council. we're discussing reaction to a hypothetical scenario. so i don't think it's useful to dwell on this publicly. >> let us perhaps talk, again, a little bit on deflation. i think or perhaps there is a little bit of unclarity in the markets or as well as in investors' understanding of what really has to happen until the ecb will act, because we already see a lowering of the inflation trend. >> well, that's exactly the question. the question is to what extent does the incoming data affect the medium term inflation outlook. that's where there was unclarity at our last meeting. that's why we thought it would be useful to wait until new data points arrive to see whether or medium term inflation outlook is affected. >> you're telling us that the next data point will be the inflation data for next -- for the last month then?
>> you know, i think it's not that easy. there are always numerous factors that enter our assessment. the next inflation data is certainly important but what matters is to what extent this data affects our medium term inflation outlook. >> so the message is watch out for the april inflation data. the ecb is expecting that this inflation data will pick up and that the reading will be well above the march reading of 0.5%. that is because some seasonal effects which have been the case in march will not be there in april. but if that is not the case, if we don't see a picking up of the inflation trend in april, there might actually really be room for the ecb to move further, whether it will be negative deposit rates or quantitative easing of some kind, be it sovereign debt, be it gold or
forex, that of course we don't know. the scenario of negative deposit rate is actually the most likely scenario, ross. with that, back to you. >> okay, annetta, thank you. you can watch the interview with full analysis on cnbc.com. the federal reserve released minutes from its march 19th meeting yesterday. the big takeaway, rates will remain low even as the fed completes its bond buying program. the committee agreed the 6.5% unemployment rate is outdated and should no longer be used to determine when to raise interest rates. the u.s. treasury department also plans to sell 95 million shares of ally financial as part of the company's ipo scheduled for today. stocks will price at $25 per share. the ipo comes as the u.s. government winds down its troubled asset relief program which allowed it to bail out ally during the financial
crisis. the sale will return more than $2 billion to the taxpayers who now own just 17% of the company's common stock. and facebook's announcing a major change to its mobile application. users will no longer be able to send private messages on the app but instead will be required to download a separate facebook messenger app. that change will become official for all users in coming weeks. it has taken some effect in europe. and still to come on the show, m & s back in fashion. the retailer posted its best clothing sales in three years. that sent shares high. we'll ask if the trend can continue.
you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. headlines from around the globe, more signs of weakness from china but investors shrug off the trade data with markets in europe and asia kicking higher. greece receives huge investor interest as it returns to the debt markets for the first time since 2010. the deals attraracted more than0 billion euros of demand. minute from the federal
reser reserve, make for an intense debate. jens weidmann says he's not back pedaling. >> the governing council says if there is a too prolonged period of inflation rates it will consider unconvention al. marks and spencer posted the best clothing sales in three years. european equities are firm boosted by the strong finish on u.s. markets, gains of 1% across the board. the nasdaq up 1.7%. the ftse 100 and xetra dax up by 0.5%. we are looking ahead to the bank of england, heading to meeting
at 12:00. nothing is expected to be announced. on the bond markets, yields are lower across the board. gilt yields, 2.5%. they made no mention of the time line between the end of qe and the star of rate hikes. janet yellen came with that what we now believe to be an off the cuff remarks about six months. european retail very much in focus this morning. the company's first quarter sales jumped 4% which beat forecasts. the fashion giant says currency fluctuations shaved some 5% of the company's growth.
carrefour is up. mothercare says it will meet current annual profit forecast. the firm says it too is suffering an adverse impact from currency devaluation. and finally, investors welcomed a positive set of fourth quarter numbers for mark spencer this year. the clothing sales of 2013 were the best for three years with women's wear showing clear signs of improvement. joining us with his thoughts, brian roberts. good to see you. thanks for joining us. clothing sales up for the first time for the three months the end of march for a while. but they stripped this out of the rest of nonfood yet nonfood
as a whole is down. >> this is a clever piece of news. it's the first time they separated out clothing performance from the rest of the general merchandise business for three or four years. they're grasping positive news to put out there, including the markets who acted very favorably to that. i would like to know what is included in the clothing and what isn't clothing. shoe, for example. a bit of a sappy data management going on. >> there's no clarity. >> the other thing we don't really know is how much discounting they had to do. >> the answer is a lot more than a lot of their competitors. we've seen discounts between 40% and 60% on general merchandise categories over the last few months, also in the runup to christmas. ipdz it's interesting to note
that one of its competitors have steadfastly refused to participate in discounting. >> how much is the price war from supermarkets wash over do you think? >> i think it impacts. m & s is in a very, very nice position in the grocery market. most of their sales, well over 95% of their sales are through m & s products, not through the big three brands. they are insulated to a degree from the price war from the big competitive actions of others. and the levels we see in the food business continues to be incredibly impressive. >> food sales doing okay. >> they are doing very, very well. >> do they need to expand the food site? >> i think they continue to open simply food stores in conjunction with bp and wx smith
as well. i think there's still lots and lots of upside both here in the uk and mainland europe to increase sales through the food side of the business. you know, i think that continues to be a power house for them. >> what they've clearly done, they really conquered all the distribution chance, both online as well. >> i think it's a business of many years ago, has transformed into a fantastic online business with the right infrastructure. m & s was using amazon to run its website for it. it just recently transitioned away from amazon to an in-house online proposition. they saw decent growth from online during the fourth quarter. i think they're a bit of a late
starter, having amazon running your e-commerce, not necessarily a good strategy. i think a lot of investors were losing under his leadership in terms of the women's wear business in particular. this is very timely, positive news for bolland and will buy him some more time. we're seeing the benefit of his changes in structure coming through. we are seeing some of that trickle down into positive sales numbers. i think he'll be breathing a big sigh of relief today. >> i'm sure he will. thanks so much for that. b brian roberts from kantar. recent personnel shake-up at the bank of england may make the outlook more uncertain. inflation is falling.
consensus is for no change at today's meeting of the monetary policy committee. at the same time, the latest survey shows strength in british housing is continuing to grow. activity in the residential market is up at a six-year high for the first quarter of the year. helia has more on this from outside the bank of england. >> reporter: as you said, ross, the economic climate in the uk is very sunny as it is here today. one of the concerns is the housing market and whether we are experiencing a bubble similar to the bust and boom times we've had before. with me here now is simon rubinson. simon, we have a six-year high in terms of transactions. we're still below the peak in terms of how many houses people are buying. is there much more room to go? >> as you say, we're still a
third down on the high water mark in terms of activity. in many parts of the country we're just beginning to see a real emergence from what was a stagnant market for quite some time. >> should we be worried about this? clearly house prices have jumped up massively. is it a problem between -- divide between london and the rest of the country or is there asset trouble that will prove to be a problem. >> we should be encouraged that there is more activity taking place. for a long time, people weren't able to move properties. now there is fluidity in the market. that's good news. the real problem is lack of supply. there's not enough stock out there. in some micromarkets, some bigger macro markets as well, prices are being squeezed up. we're well aware of the london story. that creates problems. i don't think anybody can feel
comfortable with where the level of house prices are now. however, ultimately that's a function of the fact that there isn't enough stuff being built. >> clearly, the government and bank of england is worried about affordability. you said the problem is supply. what's the issue there? >> i think there are a number of issues. obviously the problem was exacerbated by the ramifications, the consequences of the global financial crisis. there wasn't the money around. why would the house build to develop if there isn't money around? they pulled back and we had this gap for four or five years where we saw that marked dropup in supply. ultimately i think what we need to do is get building again. there are ongoing issues as issues about planning that need to be addressed at a local authority level. that needs to be much more focused on local authorities pushing through their local plans to really get targets in place, to start building. >> what about in terms of the bank of england's powers here?
to use other tricks rather than just monetary policy. we heard about kind of the imf saying that britain is the third most indebted country in the world in terms of household debt. what about the mortgage market review? is that going to have an impact? are they going to do something to help dubai? >> i think the bank may prefer to focus on the affordability tests and its ability to manipulate the rates at which it actually gets lenders to do those tests. obviously we know, particularly sort of the high value london markets is that its cash buyers, equity rich buyers driving the market. nice solution but does that actually address the problem? >> essentially it's unsustainable, isn't it, when people are taking mortgages out that are four times their salary? it can't go on like this. >> obviously, at some point, the cost of money is going to go up one way or another. that's going to slow the market
anyway. i mean, i think we see the combination of slightly higher mortgage rates over the next year, a bit more supply coming. meaning that the market or the pricing trend loses momentum. what is unsustainable? if there's a lot of buyers, money looking for a home and the london property market is that home, then it can continue to sort of be well underpinned. >> thank you very much, simon. it looks like property prices still have some way to go in london especially but the rest of the uk, too. as we said, that could prove to be a problem for the economy when that's really starts to bite, when interest rates go up sometime next year. >> yes. we'll see what happens. thanks for that. plenty more to come in the strictly rates, coming up at 11:00 uk time, 12:00 cet. could italy's ex-prime minister, sylvia berlusconi be punished for tax fraud by having to feed kittens and take care of
exports fell by 6.6%, imports down by 11.3% on the year. there was another surprise down under. this time, though, it was a positive one. the aussie dollar up over 94.40, the highest we've been since november of last year. the jobless rate is diving. hope that unemployment peaked much earlier than anticipated. meanwhile, indonesia's main opposition party, the pdip is pulling ahead in the country's political race. they won 1 % -- 19% of the votes. that's less than the 25% needed for them to put forward their candidate. the bank of korea voted unanimously to keep rates on
hold. speaking for the first time, governor lee says he's not worried about a slowdown in china's economy just yet. june yoon johns from us seoul with more. where does this now leave us with the expected path of rates? >> that's right, ross. south korea's central bank kept rates unchanged at 2.5% for the 11th straight month today. this was in line with market expectations with the bank of korea saying that the recovery in the economy is continuing so far. this is bank of korea's new governor's first rate decision meeting since he took over on the 1st of the month. he was clear saying that the pace of economic growth would drive policy going forward. if it came along with higher inflation, this would allow him to discuss moving rates preemptively. the mann reasons given for the rate decision this time around was that inflation was low and
showing a stable picture, giving them room to support growth without a rate change. and a check on inflation which seems to be a key focus for the bank of korea, it was at 1.3% in march which is below the lower banned that the bok wanted to see. it is expected to speed up to 2.8% in the second half of this year, moving back into the target range of 2.5 to 3.5%. ross, like you mentioned, the governor has said he's not concerned with the effects of china's economic slowdown spilling over into korea's economy because he believes china is fully capable of dealing with a downturn at this point in time. economists here are saying that the next rate move will most likely be a rate hike but not expecting it to be until late this year or early next. ross, back to you. >> june, thanks for that. on the agenda in asia tomorrow, we'll get minutes from the bank of japan meeting.
chinese inflation data will also be out for march, both cpi and ppi. we had chinese trade numbers, tomorrow will be india's term and samsung s5 smartphone is due to be launched globally on friday. >> silvio berlusconi could spend his sentence for tax fraud on a farm or in an old age home. italian courts will hear arguments on whether the ex-prime minister should be given community service or go under house arrest. an agency is calling for him to serve his time to care for the elderly, while an animal rights activist group is call for him to take care of kittens and horses. does it matter what happens to berlusconi? >> quite so. italian politics is a machiavellian play. what we are expecting today, to use an understatement farcical,
i mean, berlusconi is to serve under house arrest or community service and none of those is, obviously, pattalable to berlusconi himself. however, i wouldn't be so sure that we will have a verdict today. today is the day where the court will gather but it could be, chances are, that the verdict is postponed. if it gets postponed, the big question here is will it get postponed after may 25 or will it be the day after tomorrow? if it's after may 25, however, berlusconi may be in a position to actively play a role in the campaign for the eu elections. if not, that's the end of the line. i mean, he's low in polls.
without berlusconi, to achieve good results, it's close to zero. >> what is their line anyway on how anti-euro, anti-eu establishment they are? >> i think they're quite unresolved. i think berlusconi has to decide what persona he wants to embody. he'll probably opt for something anti-euro. however, others have rushed into that camp before he did. so he's bouncing back in polls because the anti-euro rhetoric is doing them good in polls. the italian indignatos are using similar statements. the market, that niche, is already crowded. >> meanwhile, while this goes on, of course we're working out how renzi is doing, how much
support he's got to implement changes. what do you think? >> renzi is doing well in polls. i think that -- he is at the stage where it's too early to judge him on his delivery. and he can still be assessed on his promises and stated ambitions. that won't last forever. so question is, how he scores at the next european election. because that's very important for him. polls are signaling that he's a 33%, which is very good. considering that in 2009 his own party did 26.1. however, you should factor in votes and not just the relative strength of parties. back in 2009, 26% was equivalent to 8 million votes. will he get more than 8 million votes? that's the real question.
>> where are we on electoral law reform? >> did you notice, it has disappeared. >> we kept talking about it. it seems to have disappeared. >> he clearly is a wonder kid when it comes to communications. he focuses everyone's attention on a topic and all of a sudden no one cares about electoral reform. the electoral reform is on the hold. although the center ride is urging renzi to put it back on track, there are allies on renzi's own coalition. the way it is designed, it's probably going to kill smaller parties. and some are struggling to survive. >> i thought that was the point, wasn't it, to be able to have an election with a decisive result. has renzi decided that's not what he wants?
or has he decided we don't need to decide it now. >> no. he's in govern. it's all about governing and delivering results. once he has some results and has a track record that he can use, then he probably will go for the jugular and sk se accelerate one part of reform. >> thanks for joining us. corporate news, the company's first quarter sales jump 4% beating forecasts that sent shares higher. also, sales up at the french supermarket carrefour. things looking up. >> things looking good for the luxury sector. it remains resilient the crisis. sales in europe were resilient despite the still challenging confinement.
the same square driven by strong demand in the united states and also in asia, lvmh put a 6% growth on the quarter. the main one for lvmh posted a 9% growth thanks to the new creative director of louis vuitton. then we have wine and spirits sales dropped 3% mainly because of the restocking effect in chi china. that was for lvmh reaction. the stock is up more than 3.5%. on the other side of the board, carrefour trading lower after the company posted a 3.7% decline in sales for the first quarter. this is due mainly to a strongly negative currency effect. excludeing negative -- excluding currency on petrol sales. organic sales were up 7% in the
quarter. that was in line with expectations. in france, the key metrics for q4 remains. they were up on 0.070%. it posted 1.4% of growth in the fourth quarter of the last year. they were confident with the market consensus after an operating profit of nearly 2.4 billion euros this year. market reaction negative, manly because of the consensus about the french markets. >> stephan, thanks for that. more on those corporate numbers. also still to come, is the fed being a weak ling? that's the allegation from the chicago fed president, charles evans. as we go into it, we'll show you where we stand with european equities right now. the ftse is negative, the cac
and the xetra dax fairly flat. u.s. equities had a strong finish yesterday. the dow and s&p up over 1% each. the nasdaq up 1.7%. eight out of ten sectors were higher for the s&p 500. futures right now, suggesting we'll dip down at the open or be fairly flat. the dow is currently six points below fair value. and the s&p 500 is also around two points below fair value. we'll take a short break. the second hour of "worldwide exchange" is approaching very fast. we'll have it for you in under three minutes. huh, fifteen minutes
the headlines from around the globe, more signs of weakness in china. investors shrug off the trade data. equities in europe and asia kicking higher. greece receives huge investor interest as it returns to the debt markets for the first time since its bailout in 2010. the deal attracting more than 20 billion euros in demand. minutes from the federal reserve reveal an intense debate over the future of forward guidance where jens weidmann tells cnbc exclusively he's not making a u-turn on qe.
>> i don't consider this back pedaling. the governing council declared, the governing council said if there is a too prolonged period of low inflation rates, it will also consider unconventional instruments. >> and back in fashion, shares in lvmh jump as sales jump in the first quarter. marks and spencer also higher, posting the best clothing sales in three years. you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. >> and if you just joined us state side, welcome to the global trading day here on cnbc's worldwide exchange. we had a nice spike higher for u.s. equities yesterday. the nasdaq up 1.7%. this morning we might slip back at the open. the dow is currently some 22 points below fair value, about 3 points below fair value for the
s&p 500. the nasdaq at the moment is around about a point below fair value, boosted by the minutes yesterday which suggested that janet yellen's comments that there would be six months between the end of qe and rates going up was an off the cuff remark. the time frame wasn't detailed in the minutes. european equities while they were firmer an hour or so ago, we had gains for the ftse over 0.5%. up 0.2. the xetra dax has gone flat, the cac current is down and we're off a third of a percent for the ftse mib. ten-year greek debt is yielding here, 5.9%. the focus is on an auction where they raised around 3 billion worth of greek debt in a five-year. the yield reported to be 4.95%. apparently 20 billion euros bid.
that may tell you more about where we are with global investor appetite than we are about the dynamics of the greek economy. nevertheless, we are back in the market. ten-year treasury yields, 2.66, continue to decline. at this time yesterday we were yielding over 2.7%. on the currency markets, the dollar index slipped to a three-week low. 101.57 on the dollar/yen. 101.55 is where we were tuesday. the aussie dollar has been boosted by better than expected employment data. keep our eyes on sterling, 1.6771. the bank of england coming up. that's where we stand here in europe. in asia they've been looking at trade data out of china. and sri is freshly back from
mumbai. he's taking a look at that. sri? >> the results of that election in india, ross, will be around mid-may. let's switch to another economic superpower in the region, china, of course. you mentioned the trade data. it was very, very mixed. on headline we saw surprise declines in both imports and exports. but we saw gains somewhat counterintuitively oddly enough for commodity imports like iron ore for example. a lot of people are talking about this. a lot of people are still trying to price in the effects of further stimulus which may come in may or june some are saying in the form of a cut in the rrr. let's leave that aside. the markets got juiced towards the tail end of trade. the shanghai composite closing at a two-month high, up by 1.4%. the reason being beijing, the securities regulator allowing cross border stock investments
between hong kong and the mainland. securities climbing by more than 6% on that news. this is further evidence of capital market liberalization. so the markets are watching this closely and they liked what they saw. elsewhere, s&p/asx 200, we continue to see the aussie economy firing on all four cylinders. the aussie dollar pushing onwards and upwards. around 94.5 cents against the green back. that's where we stand right now. back to you, sir. >> sri, thank you. have a good evening in singapore. it's time to get aggressive. charles evans, the chicago fed president, says the mandate has
been too weak. the current unemployment rate of 6.7% overstated the strength of the employment picture, he says. he added the central bank should wait at least six months after ending its bond-buying program before hiking interest rates. this all comes after u.s. equities rallied on the release of minutes from the march 19th meeting. the big takeaway rates remain low even as they scale back its bond buyback program. pete are cardere, joins this morning. nice to see you. it's been a while. clearly, the minutes told us that janet yellen's remark about six months between the end of qe and rates going up was an off the cuff remark. where does that leave us? >> i think really it doesn't change the picture very much. you know, i think what the fed has been doing here all along,
they've been testing the market, you know, when janet yellen said that they would probably pull the trigger at six months after the bond buying program ceases, the markets got spooked a bit. basically nothing really changes. i think yesterday's fed minutes just basically tells us that, look, the economy is doing well. but the fed is not going to raise interest rates anytime soon. so the market took heed to that and acted accordingly. again, what we're seeing here is a fed that continues to test the market in an economy that's doing okay but certainly not going gang busters. and certainly not warranting a change in monetary policy anytime soon. >> they also stretch that after the rate began to rise, the tightening cycle would be unusually gradual. which should be of comfort.
>> absolutely. i think, you know, that's the reason why the market acted the way it did. i suspect that, you know, if you take into consideration what evans said yesterday, that the fed needs to be somewhat more aggressive, i think that's another reason to believe even when monetary policy does change, it's going to be very gradual. it's not going to be a shock to the economy. obviously you know we're not only dealing with the domestic economy here, we're dealing with the global economy, china has weakness. i don't think it's anything to worry about. but certainly china is not going to be -- is not poised to all of a sudden explode here. on the upside. and that just simply means, you know, less help from asia and certainly europe is on the right
path of -- >> peter, sorry. what does this all mean for equities? we've been wondering if we're under correction. they've been on teither side of the 1850 mark. we have moves without actually going anywhere. >> exactly. every time we seem to get in a correction mode for one reason or another, there is an interruption, just like yesterday, you know. the fed basically have interrupted this pull back that we were in the midst of. i suspect that, you know, earnings are probably going to be a problem for the market. and i think they're probably going to create a healthy correction. when i say a healthy correction, i don't think anything that's going to mean anything much beyond 8%, best case scenario, we may be looking at 4% to 6% pull back. worst case scenario, 8%. i think you know from a technical perspective that's healthy for the stock market. i think that, you know, by year
end we'll probably see this market continue to do quite nicely. >> good to see you, peter. peter cardillo. thank you. just to remind you, we've had a number of auctions out in europe this morning. ireland sold 1 billion of it's march 2024 bonn. i took the opportunity to get 3 billion under way. and the yield on the greek bond down to 4.95%. there's the irish market which i just highlighted before i talked about greece. so on the agenda in the united states, at 8:30 eastern we have weekly jobless claims expected to come in at 320,000. also at 8:30 we have march import prices expected to be up
0.2%. sticking with retail today, we're also expecting march same-store sales. earnings season ramping up, family dollar, right-aid a-- rite-aid and others. the float comes as the u.s. government winds down its troubled asset relief program which allowed it to bail out ally during the financial crisis. the sale will return more than $2 billion to the taxpayers who just earn 17% of the company's common stock. the world's biggest pork company is also going up for $5.3 billion float in hong kong. wh group wants to use the listing to pay down debt it acquired during its u.s.-based smithfield foods last year.
it will be the second biggest food and beverage listing ever. they've been fattening things up ahead of that. still to come, is blackberry ready to hang up on its mobile handset business? more details, coming up. mine was earned in korea in 1953. afghanistan, in 2009. orbiting the moon in 1971. [ male announcer ] once it's earned, usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection. and because usaa's commitment to serve current and former military members and their families is without equal. begin your legacy. get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve.
you're watching "worldwide exchange." recapping the headlines, despite disappointing chinese trade data, equities in europe and asia have been trading higher. greece goes to the bond market for the first time since its 2010 bailout. and luxury stocks follow lvmh higher as the retailer posts better than expected results. >> we've had results out from an irish auction as well. ireland scoring a new record low ten-year funding cost at auction. the yield 2.917%. it was 2.967% on march 13th. they sold 1 billion euros of a 2024 bond. a ten-year yield record low at funding for ireland. now this comes ahead of a bank of england decision today, a recent personnel shake-up at the bank of england might make the
outlook for this year's policy more uncertain. for now, with inflation falling, consensus is for no change at today's meeting of the monetary policy committee. let's get out to helia who's outside the bank of england with her view of where the discussion is going to center. >> ross, good morning. i think the bank of england is unlikely to come out with a change in interest rates. that's not expect ed until next year. they will be talking about the pressure on rates because the uk is now the strongest growing economy in all the world. and as the imf pointed out, we have become drastically hooked to this loose monetary policy, quantitative easing and historically low rate. that can't go on forever. there is pressure on the bank of england now to look at raising
rates, possibly look at quelling the housing bubble, housing in the uk. we saw the rick survey saying transactions were up at a six-year high. the bank of england will need to look at those things to make sure that the economy isn't going to get in a shock wave if rates have to go up too fast and too high. >> thanks for that, helia. that rate decision coming up at 12:00 london time. now, the u.s. treasury secretary urged europe to do more to tackle the threat of deflation. speaking to steve liesman, jack lew outlined the action he'd like to see taken. >> the risk of low demand and the risk of low deflation is something they need to be alert to. >> inflation or the lack of it very much the focus of the ecb. annetta has been speaking to
jens weidma in. he has been tacking about in theory how you might tackle inflation or weaken inflation. do you think he's about to go from theory to practice? >> that's a good question. i think there's a lot of hawks around in the ecb. they would probably first do something else like negative deposit rates before going down the path of a fully fledged qe program. just as a reminder we had that leaked report last week with the frankfurt -- and that was showing that the ecb has been calculating what a 1 trillion euro quantitative easing would do to the inflation rate. and it really only had minimal effects according to that calculation on the inflation rate. so i would be actually -- i
would say it's more likely we head into negative deposit rates than a fully pledged qe. as it also has legal consequences. let me bring you back to the topic of economic data. because that is, of course, crucial for any further action of the ecb. when i spoke to jens weidmann, the president of the bundesbank exclusively, i asked him what data point he is focusing on when making his mind up, what he should do in terms of monetary policy. take a listen. >> i think you have to see two points. first is that what matters to us is is not past inflation which we cannot influence but it's the projected inflation. the forecasted inflation rates, forecast inflation rates. the second point is that a lot of the decline in the inflation rate has been driven by the energy prices, so factors that
are outside our influence and our expectation is that the inflation rate will gradually rise over the future. >> mario draghi at least alluded to the fact that you as well are now in favor of quantitative easing. but there was some back pedaling as well by other governing council members, not only you. where the is governing council now standing? >> i wouldn't consider this back pedaling. i think you have to see what the governing council declared. the governing council said that if there is a too prolonged period of low inflation rates, it will also consider unconventional instruments. and there's a range of these unconventional instruments. and they differ in their effectiveness. they differ in the risks and side effects and of course we also will have to consider the limits of our mandate. and the limits that the treaty
delineates. >> so the key data set that we're looking out for now is april inflation. the ecb is expecting that inflation number to pick up from, of course, the very low rating in march but also from a year ago. and if that is not the case, ross, we should see some kind of action, be it a small qe, some sort of private sector asset purchasing program or negative deposit rates. we don't know yet, but they have to act if that is actually happening. with that, back to you. >> good stuff, annetta. thanks for that. you can hear more of that jens weidmann at cnbc.com as well. still to come, searching for expansion. yelp is expanding in asia.
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to buy a passat tdi clean diesel. husband: so it's like two deals in one? salesperson #2: exactly. avo: during the first ever volkswagen tdi clean diesel event, get a great deal on a passat tdi, that gets up to 795 highway miles per tank. and get a $1,000 fuel reward card. it's like two deals in one. hurry in and get a $1,000 fuel reward card and 0.9% apr for 60 months on tdi models. online business ratings and review company yelp is announcing plans to expand in asia. >> there were a number of
engineering challenges we had to overcome. we had to handle yib character sets, search technology. when we came here we wanted to do it right. it took time to perfect it. we're happy that we're finally here and we've launched in tokytoky tokyo, as well as other places in japan. >> you went through from an acquisition. now you're doing this organically. what made you decide one or the other. >> our approach has always been organic. in the case of quipe, that was an opportunistic position. the merger ended up being successful. that's something we remain open to worldwide but it's not the way we brave our international expansion. we do that organically primarily. >> when you have a new device like the smartphone that changes the land escape entirely, how long do you think everything
will be centered around the smartphone? do you think there's a piece of hardware coming that could change the landscape altogether? >> i wish i had perfect vision on that altogether. it does feel like we're at the early part of this cycle. iphone was only in 2008, even though it seems like it's been around for a long time. that's actually relatively short. there could always be new and interesting technologies. i think we have our eye on eye beacons which could allow local business owners understand how many people are coming into their stores. there's exciting things out there. can't say i know exactly what the future will bring. >> it seems almost inevitable that another chinese manufacturer will come out with a similar product or similar function to the iphone which will be priced much, much cheaper. how is that going to change the landscape and do business? >> i think that's already the case with android. our approach is bring yelp to wherever the people are. if it's an iphone we'll have an
iphone app. if it's android, we'll have an android app. if everybody is suddenly wear g iwearing weird glasses, that's where we'll have the app. >> you say weird. do you think this is weird. >> i think you never say never. the masters kicks off today in augusta, georgia. it's a special time of the year. the sport's biggest athlete isn't teeing is up. tiger woods sitting out for the first time since he turned professional in 2004. ticket sellers are seeing a big drop in prices, some as much as 66%. we'll get more on this and the odds for who might be the winner without tiger, coming up a little bit later in the program. also still to come, did the brutal winter in the u.s. put a
chill through retailer sales? we'll preview the china store numbers after this. ♪ [ cellphones beeping ] ♪ [ cellphone rings ] hello? [ male announcer ] over 12,000 financial advisors. good, good. good. over $700 billion dollars in assets under care. let me just put this away. [ male announcer ] how did edward jones get so big? could you teach our kids that trick? [ male announcer ] by not acting that way. ok, last quarter... [ male announcer ] it's how edward jones makes sense of investing. ♪
equities higher in europe. ireland sees a record low on funding costs as demand for its bonds outstrips demand. and minutes from the federal reserve reveal an intense debate over the future of forward guidance. jens weidmann tells cnbc exclusively he's not making a u-turn on qe. >> i don't consider this back pedaling. the governing council said that if there is a too prolonged period ofly inflation rates, it would also consider unconventional instruments. >> and back in fashion, shares in lvmh jump as sales of luxury jumps in the first quarter, marks also posting higher
clothing sales. good morning to you. strong finish to the session yesterday state side. the s&p and dow both up 1.1%, the nasdaq up 1.7%. this morning, futures are indicating a dip at the open. the nasdaq at the moment is currently some nine points below fair value. the s&p 500, eight out of ten sectors up yesterday. currently its six points below fair value and the dow is 48 points below fair value. ftse global 300 has been firmer this morning. we dropped down to a low for the session. we are now flat. the ftse first thing this morning was up over 0.5%. we're flat, down four points after seeing gains of 44 points on the wednesday session. xetra dax is down 0.5%, cac, similar amounts and similar for
the ftse mib as well. much will depend on the reaction to the fed minutes. bank of england coming up, too. what are investors to do? here's a recap of the thoughts we had on the channel. >> the boe has to be careful in how quickly it will tighten monetary policy. in a world where other central banks are printing money, there's a limit to which the boe can rush forward and tighten interest rates. it would raise cable, certainly hurt the economy disproportionately. everybody else keeps monetary policy loose. >> i think the question of the exit from qe is increasingly becoming the main question, because how it worked or didn't work in the past is all very interesting, but there's nothing you can do about that either way. the question about the exit qe is going to be moving -- is moving up.
>> it's independents that normally are the pioneers anyway, very few of oil discoveries have been made by the oil majors. it's not surprising they've had to go elsewhere. russia is a good place to be. it's actually bigger than the whole of the shale opportunity in north america. >> some thoughts already. meanwhile, on the agenda, the united states at 8:30 eastern, weekly jobless claims are expected to come in at 320,000. 8:30, march import prices expected to be up 0.2%. sticking with retail today, we're expecting march same-store sales. joining us is the director of research at thompson reuters. good to see you.
thanks for joining us. has winter finished yet? >> it's starting to finish. the harsh weather definitely played a big role for retailers this first quarter. as a result, they're looking to april to increase their earnings for the first quarter. it cost a lot of store closures and consumers stayed at home and chan cranked up the heat because it was so cold, as a result they have higher bills, especially when it comes to energy. consumers are trading down what they're spending. they want to have the best value, but pay less for it. that's where you see stores like steinmart. >> we have this late easter, three weeks later than last year. how much pent-up demand is there? >> retailers are hoping that the pent-up demand is what's going to bring the consumers to the
stores in the month of april. consumers hit the stores during the month that easter falls in, which will be april. however, having said that, retailers have warned us not to expect too much from them this first quarter. when you look at the guidance for the first quarter, to date we've received 68 negative pre-announcements and only 6 positive. as a result analysts have been lowering expectations for the first quarter in terms of earnings and same-store sales. since the beginning of the quarter wee seeing that the expectations for the entire quarter have fallen. analysts are not too optimistic on the overall first quarter result. >> you say the same-store sales index expected a 2.1% gain in march. when you take out drugstores it's even weaker. >> that is correct. when you exclude that, we're looking at a 1.4% drop which is weaker than what we saw a year ago. retailer -- consumers are staying home, they're trading
down and we're seeing that the low end consumer is also being squeezed because the government shut down, a lot of the government programs like food stamps. the middle-class consumer on the other hand are sticking to items they believe are increasing the value of their homes. they recently refinanced and bought new houses, they're going to the home furnishing stores, the home improvement stores. they have the luxury consumer which is firing on all cylinders and are still willing to pay $5,000 for a pair of shoes. >> what a lot of money for a pair of shoes. stay there. we'll come back to you for a moment. blackberry ceo john chen said the company is willing to exit its mobile phone business if it remains unprofitable. they once had 20% of the smartphone market share but has seen sharp declines since the rise of iphones and android devices.
facebook's announced a major change to its mobile application. users will no longer be able to send private messages on the app but instead will have to download a separate facebook messenger app. what a bore that sounds. that change will become official for all users in the coming weeks. though it's taken effect in some european companies. now, as the masters will get off it a roaring start today, will the absence of tiger woods see viewers tuning out? we'll preview what happens in augusta, georgia. now, who is the most likely to win? that's coming right up. mine was earned in korea in 1953.
and because usaa's commitment to serve current and former military members and their families is without equal. begin your legacy. get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve. you're watching "worldwide exchange." the headlines, despite disappointing chinese trade data, equities in europe are higher and europe is more mixed. greece goes to the bond market for the first time since 2010 in its bailout. luxury stocks follow lvmh higher. the fashion retailer posting better than expected figures. jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon has taken a pay cut for 2014 but is
still taking home nearly $12 million for the year. i wouldn't mind taking a pay cut if i still had that kind of pay. >> i was just going to say, doesn't sound too bad. good morning to you, ross. a new s.e.c. filing shows that jpmorgan chase ceo jim my dimon took this significant pay cut last year, 2013. his total compensation was $11.8 million, this included his $1.5 million salary, 10 million in stock and other perks as well, like access to corporate jets, et cetera. now that may sound like a lot for most of us but in fact it's down 37% from his compensation the year before. in 2012 his compensation included his $1.5 million salary, 12 million bucks in stock and an extra $5 million in stock options adding up to a total of nearly $19 million. the question now, ross, why the cut back? it's mostly a result of fines
and legal fees that jpmorgan has been facing since the 2008 financial crisis. last year alone, the company was forced to set aside $9 billion. 9 billion to cover litigation from the housing crisis and also from its famed london wale trading loss. these troubles hit jpmorgan last year, posting a quarterly loss, the first in a decade. the compensation committee noted they adjusted all of the top executives' compensations as well to reflect the fines taken on by the company. despite the cutback to dimon's compensation, the committee said they were pleased with his handling of the legal battles, mentioning that the company's strong earnings performance was quite strong despite challenges they face. in dimon's own letter to shareholders yesterday, he said 2013 was painful and nerve-racking and that the company came away scarred but strengthened. i guess there's a reason, ross,
he gets those big bucks. >> oh, yes. still, don't worry, jackie, it will come our way at some point. >> maybe one day. >> one day. you never know. do you like golf? >> i do like golf. i am looking forward to the masters. i just took up golf this year and have been out on the course. >> good for you. >> i have some enthusiasm for it this year. >> it is the best tournament to watch. you're right. >> that's right. looking for that green jacket. >> yes. jackie mentioned the augusta masters kicking off today in georgia but this man, tiger woods, is not going to be there. he's sitting it out for the first time since 1994 because of back surgery. the business impact is expected to be massive. ticket sellers are seeing a major drop in prices, some as much as 66% and nike could lose $3 million to $4 million because of a loss in air time from their biggest product endorser. other businesses like hotels, transportation services and tv
ratings may take a hit as well. but without tiger, where does this leave the rest of the field? joining us is ed fulton from sporting index. good morning to you. >> good morning. >> a bit of a loss? >> there is. there's a dislocation between what golfers have gotten used to. tiger is not the force he once was. he hasn't won a major since '08. >> augusta, he's always sort of there. people are seeing whether he could do it. >> he still might. he's 38. he's an old 38. that talk in the back, that explosive swing he's had, that was always going to catch up with him at some point. it seems to have done that and he hasn't been competitive in a major for a few years. there was a slight hellabalu last year. >> the interesting thing is, the
favorites, mcilroy and mickelson at 12-1. the last time the odds for favorites were so high was in 1996, the year before tiger turned up. when of course we know nick faldo beat greg norman. >> we have adam scott, rory mcilroy and phil mickelson in the same ballpark. lefty has been dominating. he's won three times. tiger won four times. mickelson would like for nothing more to tie it up with woods and kick him with that. >> what's the chance of scott doing back to back? >> we waited 100 years for a first australian win. personally, i backed him this year. >> people with the smart money is preferring jason day. >> well, yes, he's the other aussie that's played well. he's openly admitted his back is not right. i think he has a wrist problem as well.
we're being careful. >> beware the injured golfer. >> it's the best tournament because people can get used to augusta. all the other majors, it changes. to see the same course every year, people really can get their teeth stuck into it. the same players tend to play well there every year. you get surprise winners. people say you have to have a long game. you don't. mike weir has won it there, zach johnson, they're short hitters. you just have to get hot for four days. >> rory mcilroy has made this point. we've had four winners, the last four pga tournaments, not really names that resonate. >> dufner, simpson. >> iwas thii was thinking of th four regular tournaments, really not names anybody recognizes. doesn't mean they're not good golfers, of course. clearly they are good golfers. rory mcilroy has made a appointment there's a vacuum.
he feels the need to step into it and we need the next superstar. >> nike haven't paid him 100 million to turn up. there's a lot of pressure on his shoulders. he's getting married to wozniacki. he's a celebrity as well as a golfer now. that's something tiger changed about the game. he's expected to emerge as someone who is reliable. he's won two majors. he's a terrific talent. i think he has to have a big tournament this week. people are beginning to think of him as a bit flaky. he's playing better. he won't be far away. >> any weird outside tip? >> we've seen a lot of money for mr. thorbin olifson. he's 150-1. you're not risking much to win a lot. 33-1 to place. >> sound goods. >> a confident young man as
the bailout in 2010. very, very solid demand indeed. 4.95%, the yield for its five-year paper. the greek finance minister very happy with that. now, besides that, a lot of earnings out today as well in europe. lvmh, the luxury goods group back in fashion as the company's first quarter sales jumped 4%. that beat forecasts. they say its louis vuitton brand has had a great start for the year. carrefour warns its numbers are being hit by emerging market currencies. investors did welcome earlier on from marks & spencer. the ceo says the clothing sales for 2013 were the best for three years. the stock opened up 2.25%, they're now down 2.25%. there may be a suspicion that that's come at a huge amount of discounting. on the agenda in the states
today at 8:30, we have weekly jobless claims, 8:30 eastern. they're expected to come in at 320,000. at 8:30, march import prices expected to be up 0.2%. and sticking with retail today, we also expect march chain same-store sales. earnings season ramping up today, we have family dollar, rite-aid and peer -- pier 1 imports reporting before the bell. the dow is currently 64 points below fair value, the s&p 500 nearly 8 points below fair value and the nasdaq is currently some 16.5 points or 17 points below fair value. joining us from new york, good to see you. you talked earlier about how same-store sales index is expected to say growth rate of 1.4% when you strip out the
drugstore sector. but costco, you say will be much stronger than that. why? >> well, this is because consumers are staying home and they've stayed home during the first quarter and the month of march because of the harsh weather. they stuck to buying just discretionary items. this was definitely a boost for costco as shoppers went and bought groceries to stay at home. we have the shift of the easter effect which definitely benefited one more day in the month of march and helped sales for costco. >> we just saw these great numbers turn around for lvmh. how is the luxury goods sector doing in the states? >> it is doing extremely well. the luxury consumer is firing on all cylinders. they're spending nonstop. it's interesting. when you look at the s&p 500, the consumer discretionary sector in general has seen a steep amount of decline in earnings growth rate. it went from 14.5 at the beginning of the quarter to 5.9%
today. this is mainly because we saw a lot of store closures in the united states because of the harsh weather and also because consumers stayed home during this period of time. they had to crank up their energy heating bills which is putting more pressure and actually letting them stick to discretionary items. that's why we saw costco and we're expecting steinmart today to do well. they still want designer clothing but they want to pay less for it. >> which i can completely get behind. do you think -- i wonder what you think the relative strength of the consumer will be as we go into spring and then through to summer? >> for the month of april, it's intere interesting. the month of april we'll see consumers receive a boost from tax returns and also we usually find, historically, that the
month easter falls in does well. on top of that, there's pent up demand because consumers have stayed home the past two months. retailers are banking on the month of april to help somewhat increase those margins for the first quarter. >> thanks very much indeed for that. director of research at thompson reuters. that just about brings us to the end of today's edition of "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is kicking off for viewers in the states and, of course, in asia as well. they'll count down to the opening of that state side. meanwhile here in europe, louise is joining me on set. >> i love watching you work. >> thank you so much. >> i'll come closer over here. we have the rate decision coming up for the bank of england. we'll be following that. no change anticipated. lots to talk about, right? we have an hour more together. >> that coming up in europe.
good morning and welcome to "squawk box." a more dovish fed sparks a rally on wall street. remember we were saying are they looking for hawkish or dovish? it was the dovish comments that did it. the global markets are going along for the ride. check out the ten-year. 2.65 today. china's trade data creating more concerns about the health of the world's second largest economy. walmart gets ready to roll back prices in the organic food market. thursday, april 10th, 2014. "squawk box" begins right now.
>> good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. what is that? are you getting sick, too, joe? >> allergies, i think. >> it is the season. trees are coming back. pollen is here. we'll lead off with the markets this morning. they went into rally mode after the fed minutes yesterday. signs that the central bank will remain more dovish and less aggressive to hike rates. that sent stocks flying. joe's right. we were watching for what was going to happen with this. sure enough it looks like the fed put maybe back on. there was a unanimous decision to drop thresholds being used to telegraph a possible rate hike. and the markets, you saw the dow yesterday, it took off, adding 180 points for a better than 1% advance. the s&p 500 gaining over 1%, adding 20 points to close at 1872. finally we are above where we closed the year last year. we're looking at a gain of 23 points for the course of this