tv Fast Money CNBC October 8, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
well. >> thanks. "fast money" in a few moments on the major market day, melissa lee. >> we have a lot to trade here. alcoa, gap crushed dean new ceo i spoke to earlier this year and venture capitalist extraordinaire to weigh in on the correction we have seen in bitcoin. >> all right. no delay. straight over to you. >> thank you. "fast money" starts right now. from new york stock exchange, i'm melissa lee. stocks having the best day of the year today. we'll tell you how to make sense of the volatile market. traders are pete, brian, karen and guy. shares of the gap falling after hours on news that the ceo is leaving. we'll look at the replacement art peck. we start with the fed-fueled rally. the fed was concerned about global weakness and the strength of the u.s. dollar. even the transports taking a hit for the third day in a row. they reverse course on the heels of that news.
pete, how do you make sense of this call? >> what really stood out for me early on the day is going down and financials traded well, actually holding up the market watching the chips go down. big cap tech go down. you mentioned transports. all reversed and then the financials led the way on the rest of the way to the upside. look at the names in the financials, citi or goldman sac sachs. financials really i thought were the leg that stood out early and then looking at the chips and big cap techs and trantransport. we have a great broad based move up to the upside. >> the worries of the minutes worries that exist in the market and we had the dismal numbers out of germany. the dollar strengthening. >> and so while the new part was everybody was afraid that the fed to pull the punchbowl awe and the other things going on and some day we'll wake up and equity market will care about bad news around the world but it's not today and the fed
minutes today, they were huge in my opinion. the fact that they mention the strong dollar, that's highly unusual for the federal reserve to talk about currency strength so to me this is a lower for longer. punchbowl is still out. you have to stay long. >> give kudos to steve and flagged 1925 and the level and basically got there today. i thought 1904 and i was wrong and the reverses to pete's point unbelievably strong. we traded. what was support is resistance. same thing on monday. see what happens tomorrow and reversals into transports powerful and the russell back above 108 is very interesting, as well. >> karen, what did you today? >> well, we bought a little but then things got away from us. we have sort of a buy list of things and one thing we look at a lot, volatility index. earlier in the day today, i felt that the selling was really starting to be panicky and sort of indiscriminate and seeing
things trade in integers then it feels different like it's not something fundament also often the hardest thing to do is sell protection when it's very frothy and 17, we've been at that level a number of times. >> did you lean on the financials? that stood out for me in the trading session. early as the market's going downside, financials are holding up. did you say to yourself, maybe the panic is not fully into the market because yesterday financials went awe long to the downside. >> financials undervalued for so long and i don't trade around them but we did buy back enough of our hedge. >> back to the transports conversation. we saw a market turnaround. guy, another ebola headline out. we have another five airport that is are going to increase screening for people who have come from west africa and then what happens? >> i think that the news flow is worse before it's better and sort of in that camp to see headlines.
obviously i hope that doesn't happen and hard pressed only the it won't but the reverse, the technical reversals are powerful and something to watch. i think the market gave you a nice tell, specifically in the transports and russell. headline driven, yes. but what we have seen before is we have seen that and might see it again. >> you know, if i was given a choice i'd rather be in the small caps because the transports have the airline and the fed said that the global economy is slowing. that's not necessarily a great sign for transports in general. somebody who transports goods in an economy. so to me i'd rather be in a small cap area. and we have had five years of qe and not getting better. >> small cops or transports. >> small caps. >> small caps? >> yes. >> how about you? >> rails, take the rail car manufacturers and then next the airlines in that order. i love these airlines. today huge buying in delta by the way. puts, a lot of people interpret it as negative.
i thought that was protection. people wanted to get into the stocks on this selloff. >> talk autos here. ford hitting the lowest level today before rebounding. morgan stanley cutting the target on gm just yesterday. joining us is morgan stanley's adam jonas. adam, great to see you here on set. in terms of ford, you make it clear there are a number of things to go right for f-150. i mean, everything from the temperature and the humidity of the manufacturing floor because it's aluminum to the paint coatings. why isn't the rest of the street not getting this then? >> first, i want to say that ford recently said publicly and as recently as capital markets day that everything regarding the truck launch and the preparations is going according to plan. but things can and do go wrong as auto business is difficult and a complicated launch. we think there should be some more balance in the debate and investors to prepare for
reasonable uncertainty and technical difficulty so a lot of what ford, there's discovery when ford turns on the dearborn manufacturing facility and we want to prepare people for that. that's 90% of the ford auto profitability from the f-150. >> 90%? >> 9-0. a lot riding on this. >> in terms of gm, you lowered estimates yesterday. mary barra said on cnbc she believes in the company's outlooks, her words. you don't? >> we believe the company believes in the outlook. >> okay. >> and it's anyone's guess as to where the cycle is going. we happen to have a more bearish view of the u.s. auto cycle and don't think they get enough attention on your program and the impact of the yen at 110 and what that means to the auto industry. 40% of the u.s. market is japanese. they have massive open positions to the yen. and they're the poster children of abe-nomics.
one of the best predict or thes of automotive demand is plants opening up and from the company data we're opening up a hell of a lot of numbers of plants and able to produce is never higher and we think there's deflation coming. we don't think the cycle's over in terms of unit valium but the profitability journey is brutal. >> cyclical analyst for a long, long time. this is the first time of the auto industry be the massive restructuring of 2008. does anything look different about this cycle and where stocks often peak before the cycle itself peaks. >> an out of things are different. autos cyclicals. the banks as you know return to the auto market to lend maybe three years before the housing market and we had a head start on an early cyclical. there are some positive thing that is are better this time
around. the industry's moved more to tier two workers. we don't have the viagra reused to buy in every minivan. that's gone and then new challenges. autonomous driving, new entrants. technology, completely changing how cars are made and who's making them and from a technology disruption standpoint the next ten years will be far more difficult than the previous five. >> tesla and technology and disruption, we had an event tomorrow. you put out a note recently september 15th. a note where you said, you know what? we agree with elon musk and the stock could be overvalued. >> i think my 4-year-old son in that interview. >> you stood by your price target and list four sobering factors to consider. i didn't understand the end of the note where you stood on the stock. one side you're saying i'm still bullish to hit 320 and on the other side but four reasons why.
it's sort of seemed reading it the first reaction was it was sort of a cover your butt kind of note where the stock goes up, you're right. the stock goes down, you're right. >> that's not our style of research. we're out there with the weapon opinions and willing to be wrong and take risk n. this particular instance, of having a $320 target and saying, let's relax. we think that sometimes stocks can get to a certain valuation for some of the wrong reasons. we think tesla is worth $320. as a niche manufacturer of high quality, fun to drive vehicles, our numbers are well below consensus of unit volumes and some people are thinking that tesla is going to demock ra tiz the electric vehicle industry and made us nervous and causing pause for concern. >> adam, great to see you. pete? >> i like it. the best way and said for a listening time best to play it
to the upside, the direction i'd be playing is through the options. i don't want to be in the stock i think for a lot of reasons adam spoke about. there's nervousness. is it pausing right now? maybe going to push down a bit for a while? generally the stock general is higher and because of that i think very inexpensive options to play. >> musk made the comments and stock down 7% compared to the nasdaq down 2%. kair karen, you're in gm. how do you feel? >> not great. by the stock action alone, i mean, you know i've been wrong and i'm concerned about the cycle peak or the stock's peaking. >> downgraded i think ford back a month ago and took it from 17 down to 16 and spot on. the only encouraging thing today is flush it out on 50 million shares. almost two times normal volume. the tape helped. maybe against the $14 play from long side. >> we have a strong beat from alcoa. morgan brennan with the break down from headquarters.
>> reporting a rise in third quarter profit to 31 cents a share. ex items on aluminum beating street forecast of 23 cents per share. sales also rising to a better than expected at $6.24 billion and the company reiterating its outlook of 7% growth in groebl demand for the base metal. traditionally the first major company to report and because it supplies several major industries and autos and aerospace and seen as a bellweather for the broader economy and trading up nearly 2% in the after hours. back the you. >> all right. thank you. as much as we like to say it's a belweather it's not been a bellweather. so what if anything is a read through here? >> the read through is probably closer to -- i mean, we know that they're going to be the ford pickups all aluminum and i think a lot of that's already in the stock. a stock up from $8 late last year. it's a double. done fantastic. up in the after hours. i don't think you necessarily short it here.
but i'd be starting to take profit. maybe a third off here and third through 17. >> shares of the gap falling after hours on the news of the ceo stepping down after jcpenney and sears saying should you buy them? plus, tech superstar marc andreessen, what companies cause he like right now? that's straight ahead.
let's get to a news alert on gap. shares falling in the after hours session on the new ceo stepping down in february taking the place is art peck. now back the may, i met up with art peck in san francisco. asked him about the company's push online with the reserve in-store feature. >> the notion to do on the website, i did it on the phone and know that it's going to be there. we're getting a new customer engaged at the same time. >> joining us is an analyst at piper jaffrey. art seemed at the forefront in terms of, you know, really embracing growth, nurturing
athleta and the push online. how's he stack up to glenn murphy. >> glenn is glenn and art is art. it's all about digital right now. search before perch and this is what art will be good about understanding and knowing. we do actually, we're favorable on the transition overall. we wish glenn all the best but art's a good guy and probably the right guy. >> does it make you change your view of the stock? you have a neutral rating. >> neutral right now and reported september sales and weaker but also some weaker gross margins and concerned of what that might mean for holiday overall so we just say, it's okay to be trneutral right now. >> okay. >> how much of a tail wind from cotton? >> you know, it's certainly helpful but we say a 5% reduction in price will certainly outweigh a 5% reduction in product costs.
it's always about out the door and not about going in the door so we're going to keep watching the gross margin metric overall. >> you are concerned about q3 but you like the transition? >> it could make us more bullish over time. >> jcpenney, clobbered today but you are the contrarian analyst pounding the table on this. >> we are. we think jcpenney is doing what they say they're going to do. they're reclaiming share back. okay? they lost $6 billion in revenue over the last 3 or 4 years. and they just put out a plan saying, how about $2 billion of that back? we think it's possible. we like what we heard. the reason why the stock's down is because of the september sales weaker. but everybody's september sales will be weaker. jcpenney clawed back share. >> if everybody's sales are going to be down, right? jcpenney is worst of the lot, why wouldn't i wait until january 1st?
>> you know, that's a very fair point but going back to gross margin, theirs are solid right now. they're up several hundred basis points here for q3 year over year and really encouraged by what it might mean. i want people to actually, you know, sell shirts. i want the retailers to sell shirts and make money doing it and that's what they're proving they can do. >> if they're going to claw back share, who are they clawing it back from? before macy's was gaining share. >> we are going to see how that goes all. i don't formally cover macy's but q2 womens and men's underperformed for macy's. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> guy, when's the trade here? >> assuming to look at jcpenney price to book, assuming you can and cash flow problems behind them, one time price to book and shouldn't suggest trading where macy's is but 1.5 is a $12
stock. i think the risk reward in jcpenney sets up well right here. >> karen? >> no, don't agree. macy's, you have the look at gross margin. far outperforming jcpenney. that the valuation, the stock is still low. it's below 10 but it is not cheap. it is lower but it is not cheap. much rather own macy's. >> quick trade on gap, sneet. >> you know, gap's a tough one for me. if i'm in the retail space right now, targets trades well. people completely stopped talking about this name almost back up to 52-week highs. >> sticking with retail, sears down sharply today on a report of a vendor withholding shipments due to insurers reducing coverage and sears said they have the flexibility to meet the obligations. karen's done a little work here with the fine print on that response. >> sears is one that really scares me so this is what they said and what i interpret.
they said despite the rumors and speculation lags on this topic, no significant impact on our business. i read that there's been impact on our business. then say, unfortunately put prices reflects perception and not reality. they don't want their credit to trade badly because factors are people, too. they get spooked a little. and you can't have your factors get spooked here. all of that having been said, though, sears will make it through at least this christmas. they have a number of levers they can pull but this -- they're going to be promotional and do whatever they can for cash and a reason jcp is down, too, i think. they'll make it and won't be in good shape in january. >> a key to that, they'll make it is that eddie lam pert stepping in and make it work. >> we have seen it. almost every day announcing something new, new financing. i don't know where they'll be. >> take a flier?
>> no, no, but i would say i don't think you can short it here. one, because of the eddie lampert factor and he could put a couple hundred million in and it's pops. >> i like the search before perch. merch in there of search and perch. >> i'll tell her that. >> you tell her that. the street may be bearish but could bit a sign for the company to report? we have a breakdown next. later, an exclusive interview with none other than tech investor marc andreessen. we'll talk all things bitcoin, twitter and activist investing. that's coming up. cute little guy, huh?
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heading into earnings week, so far this quarter, analysts have cut outlooks in the s&p 1500 and next guest says negative sentiment is good for the market. let's bring in paul hickey. nice to see you. analysts are a contrarian indicator? >> yeah. the worse. analysts haven't been this bearish into an earnings season since q2 2012 reporting period, over two years. what you find is looking back at the quarters, revisions, the's been 15 quarters where negative revisions have exceeded positive revisions and s&p 500 in earnings season through walmart's report up 80% of the time. average gain over 2%. median over 4%. conversely with seven quarters
where sentiment more positive revisions than negative revisions the market is only up in earnings season three of those seven times with an average decline of 1.5% so when you -- you know, may not feel good the negative sentiment but for a bull better to be going it alone than analysts at your side. >> this extends to individual stocks so the more negative revisions there are on a particular stock the more likely it will do okay? >> i mean, you think think about it this way. expectation game. sentiment is weak. news is priced in. case in point is transocean. the stock right now yielding 10% as pe of 5. now, those are questionable numbers whether earnings sustain that. but the stock has had more negative revisions 98% of the stocks in the s&p 1500 down. 35% in the last months and oil's been in free fall. they have issues with the gulf spill but, i mean, you have to
ask yourself some point when's priced in at this point and we're now in a bear market in oil but the length, it's been about a year since oil peaked. average 20% decline in oil is 20 days and extended down trend and expect to see some sort of bounce and really help these oil companies so when they report on -- early november, it's going to be not a pretty number but, you know, it's a lot of this priced in. >> other one setting up for a surprise you say is lockheed? >> yeah. so industrials is another sector and analysts can't downgrade estimates fast enough. lockheed with 82% of the exposure in u.s. insulated from the international factor weighing on the stocks and it's a defense company and geopolitical atmosphere is not getting stabler and announced a buy back of 2 billion and there's some confidence there in the numbers and the stock isn't
hit nearly as hard as some of the stocks in the industrial sector we have seen. >> thank you. >> thanks for having me. >> guy, when's the trade here? >> defense stocks are unbelievable. lockheed a whisper off the all-time high and that dividend of 10% does scare me a little bit for whatever reason so given a choice between the two, i mean, seems like the beta share is rigged. >> of those two, i'd rather pick lmt but i like energy of xop and may be seeing the bottom in oil of $85 a barrel and cost of production of shale comes in and people shooting against that. >> after the break, a guest for an exclusive interview and what trends in the trend world he is watching right now. stay tuned.
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cnbc's andrew ross sorkin is at the conference and joins us. andrew, take it awe. >> thank you for that introduction. we are in san francisco at vanity fair's new establishment summit. you are on the list and the cnbc next list. so congratulations for that. >> thank you. >> want to talk to you a lot about when's going on in the news. break-ups. our tn board of two companies effectively breaking themselves up. ebay and hewlett-packard. >> yep. >> a trend in the works? were you behind both of these? what can you tell us? >> they didn't know about each other until three weeks away and parallel processes in each one and mum on the other one. i think it's a mayor trend. i think you have emc under pressure, symantec to probably break up. my guess at this point is every large tech company breaks up.
>> every large -- >> yep. >> oracle? >> yep. some point. some point in five years they all break up. there's multiple reasons for it. one is they're all really cheap and one thing going on is valuations are very low. tech is trading below industrials. debt levels are very low. that attracts activists and put pressure and then the industry is changing so fast. very fast in the sectors and get to a smaller size to go faster. >> you mentioned activists. ebay. we went through a whole commotion nine months ago with carl icahn and there was a lot going on back then. and at the time, you and john donoho you said it should be one and not two. >> i'm under -- i can talk about carl ex-ebay.
i guess i would say we don't want to let an activist get in the way of what we think is actually the right thing to do and we thought -- >> right thing to do but there was an ego? >> it's not just like you wake up and split companies and these are like very large businesses with tens and tens of thousands of employees and integrated strategies and business models working a certain way. we have been talking, every year for six years we talk about whether to keep it together, split it up, buy companies. it's a same thing on the boards. you're constantly having a discussion and don't wave a magic wand and they're about to go through a year-long process of separation and arduous and change the strategies of the businesses and we took the focus of you have to look at the substance, think it through and have a plan. we have a plan, we have a plan and doing it. >> activism. >> sure. >> the carl icahns of the world you've dealt with now. >> yep. >> is activism good for business? >> well, so activism is one of
the terms like hedge fund, it depends what you mean. ralph whitworth is fantastic. he's astonishing. he's a teacher, a mentor. he comes in. he showed up at hp. i'm here to help. and he joined the board and became the chairman and scrubbed in and did work. taught the leadership of the company a series of things. they're phenomenal. i cannot say enough good things. >> you have a harder time with carl icahn. >> you remember the "star trek" of the good and bad captain kirk? >> carl is the evil captain kirk? >> the sash and the goatee. so like carl is the opposite. he starts off bomb throwing, lies, makes stuff up, slanders like it's the full like -- recent -- like the inner 6-year-old comes out. >> was he right? was the 6-year-old right if that's what you call him? >> depends on what the strategy of the company is applied to the actual business. one of the problems carl has is
he doesn't like -- michael dell said, you know, he said of carl, didn't know if we made nuclear reactors or french fries. he is not in the details of the stuff and the companies have to be -- >> he was -- >> these companies -- >> smart enough to figure out something. >> i don't know that it tables a super high iq to say it's a good idea to break companies up under certain circumstances. which companies when with which strategies? it's the lives of real people, tens of thousands of people, the destiny of the companies for years to come. the substance really, really matters and the crazy become throwing and the statements is a sideshow and if that's who he wants to do business he is. >> let's ask about another statement of a friend of a company you invested in. peter teal. twitter. you might recall that he said that he thought that the management was smoking something. >> well, he identified the something, i think, right?
>> he did. >> obviously twitter. >> yes. >> the response was i'll respond to peter's comment after i finish this giant bag of doritos. the performance speaking for itself. their business is growing incredibly quickly. the team is doing amazing things. >> you have been a big supporter of bitcoin and something is happening in terms of the price and dropped. can you explain that? >> oh, so the price is going to go all over the place. there's not -- the price is going to go -- not focused on the price but the technology and infrastructure built. i mean, bitcoin is a global payment plan. >> the price of bitcoin doesn't matter. >>s in early. this is like joining the internet in 1994 on the price of domain names. it's still extremely early so i don't think you can read a lot into price and the price going
way up or down. >> i noticed you were wearing a nice watch, a fancy watch, an omega speed master i think it's called, right? i read you want an apple watch. will you dump this watch for that? >> that's on this wrist. >> two watches? >> yes. absolutely. >> this's the future? >> old world, new world. >> no, no. talk about the future. most people of a different generation are not wearing watches at all. >> that's the thing. people wearing watches largely because it's with style or has to do with the respect for the engineering or fashion. or has to do with other things. yeah. most people check their cell phones for the time. >> do you think it's huge hit out of the box? >> i think it's unclear. very good prospects. with these things it's hard to call it until you see it in action. >> right. >> and so people in apple have been able to try it and the rest have not been able to try it. very exciting. by the way, this is the other thing. you never know when they work. if it doesn't work this time, it may well work this time and be
great but everybody will write off the category and work in five years. i think the idea is right and will happen either now or some point. >> right. real quick, this morning you announced a donation of $500,000 to increase diversity in the world of tech, a huge issue out here in the valley an across the country more broadly. >> yep. >> how do you expect this problem to get involved? in terms of finding engineers from a trudy verse background and really diversifying, i mean, what's going on around you? you look at your own firm i would imagine. probably not as diverse. >> you would be surprised. but so look. the good news is there's diversity and silicone valley is like the united nations. we have tremendous numbers of chinese and indian and vietnamese and people all over the planet and the companies you walk around and it's like the u.n. technology wants to be inclusive, wants people to be able to participate. we have a challenge of we have
underrepresented groups and particularly women and minorities. especially african-americans and latinos underrespected. we think, i think the two things to move the needle on is pipeline with the education process, right? for example, only 15% of computer science pranlg watts are women and possible to increase that a lot and then the other is access which is how to do people plug into the network, get to know, how do they get the jobs, the internships, the opportunities and get into the network? three nonprofits of grants for this morning work on the two problems. >> real briefly before melissa, will you have a cameo in the next hbo silicone valley? you just came from a panel with the creator of that program. >> i'll leave it to people like eric and cara much more tell generalic than i am. >> okay. we'll leave it there. melissa, do you have a question for marc? >> marc, i was wondering about the bitcoin comment, actually,
if you're still there and doesn't matter one iota. isn't this a bitcoin black eye? if you have an asset gone through a major correction, doesn't that deter people from wanting to invest in or use bitcoin? >> it's really early. it's a global payment system. not just a currency. that payment system is running at higher scale than ever before. people are developing applications for it all over the world and transfer money all over the world and booming in china it's a huge thing and huge expansion going on and so the core technology phenomenon is doing extremely well. i think the price will bounce around. prices of assets bounce around and banks and they're still standing. >> marc, thanks so much. and andrew ross sorkin, of course, in san francisco. all right. let's unpack this. there's a lot to talk about. >> there's a lot. i like bitcoin somewhat. first of all, 100% right on talking about bitcoin, separate
the currency from the technology. marc talked about reinventing financial system and talking about decentralizing it. to send you, melissa, money i have to go through the federal reserve and bitcoin i do it directly. that's game changing and the stuff he's investing in. in terms of bitcoin the price, just trading-wise, a big sell order come in. largest in bitcoin history. everybody thought it knocks it down. buyers came in. around 300-ish we have some support here for the bitcoin price. >> fighting words on carl icahn. we looked at each in shock of what he said. >> it was personal. >> sounded personal. >> i think it's interesting. my contention all along and herbalife is only thing carl knew about it was there was a huge short in it and all that mattered to me. he was right for a listening time. i ought thals that ackman could be right and starting to play auto. in terms of a trade of universe, i think facebook in earnings
looks interesting. >> carl icahn and son and david schechter live on "fast money" and interesting and quickly on tech valuations, tech trading at a discount for five years. that means that what? tech is undervalued or industrials are overvalued? it could go either way. >> for me tech is undervalued and seeing the splits and the break-ups and he addressed that and look in different spaces, whether it's chemicals, dupont and dow. the big cap tech, oracle and ibm. financials, somebody like citi to spin off or get rid of the properties like a banamax. >> deutsche banc said back in july bio tech arrowhead research was a buy. but check out shares today dropping about 50%. 5-0 on disappointing trial data. do they still think there's opportunity ahead? we bring them back to explain
their call after this break. when change is in the air you see things in a whole new way. it's in this spirit that ing u.s. is becoming a new kind of company. one that helps you think differently about what's ahead, and what's possible when you get things organized. ing u.s. is now voya. changing the way you think of retirement.
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conference in philadelphia. now amid all of the blooel news we're here talking with specialists of infectious disease and said it's likely to see additional cases here to the united states and cdc announced additional screening protocols at five major u.s. airports. from the three affected countries in west africa. new york jfk starting on saturday and additional screening next week for washington-dulles, newark, chicago-a here and atlanta and only travelers from the affected west african countries and news today that thomas eric duncan, only patient diagnosed with ebola on u.s. soil passed away today. there's question of delay of treatment coming to the hospital three days earlier than admitted and receiving an experimental drug of brincidofavir. melissa?
>> thank you. arrowhead research tanking today on disappointing results of a hepatitis b drug. a guest recommended this as a buy in july. take a listen. >> high risk, high reward, upside 100% to 200%, downside 20%. that's arrowhead. the company developing a drug for hepatitis b, could cure it. there's no data and man and comes in third quarter to see it move a lot up. >> robin was unavailable to join us but her colleague analyst alethia young joins us. thank you for phoning in. >> hey, good evening from berlin. thanks for having me. >> robin made it clear it was high risk, high reward and downside of 20%. investors are angry today following the advice into the stock and now see it down 40% scenario. when's next for this company? >> well, i think based on where
it is today it's oversold and downside is more like 20% on this event so i think what we need to look at is, one, first data seen in human patients and in theory they said what they can do and what we need to see is higher doses we can get to a little bit of a therapeutic range. all of the data in animals suggests it is possible and stock down today because sentiment and worried of timeline and potential risk and we're very confident that this is the case and will work. >> what's the timeline in terms of further catalyst? you say in the note of further data at a later date. when's the timeline of that? >> right. so in november, early november around november 10th there's a medical meeting. american lipper meeting and learning more of the full data set instead of just the details of today and a better picture of both of the doses given to us today and a better understanding
of the drug's response and then additionally later on in the first half of next year learning of response level and higher doses. >> i would imagine that some investors called you about arrowhead and when's happened or recommending investors buy it to sort of average down essentially? >> well, what i'm saying is that i think, one, the stock is very oversold here because, one, they still have a real drug that's moving forward and an exciting, novel way to treat hepatitis c and focus at the american liver meeting because it is that and what we have to understand is more time to get to the therapeutic dose that will make people more comfortable and push up the upside. >> all right. we'll leave it there. thank you for your time. again, sticking by the buy rating on arrowhead and the price target severely reduced in light of the drop today to 20 bucks a share. high risk, high reward. >> that's why bk doesn't like the trade.
single name in bio tech. without the book learning to understand these, go with xbi and traded great today. >> one thing to say is when you have high risk, high reward that's why guys like me trade the options. you have your exposure. you have your risk in place. you know exactly what you can lose playing for the upside and this is old-school bio tech guy. this is one of the names where nothing's on the market right now. they have nothing out there. and phase two as far as they are and you're betting on the future and that's something that's risky. >> gill yad up 4.4%. that was and continues to be the best hepatitis play and talking about that for a while and arrowhead might be interesting here. i think deutsche banc does an amazing job but as safe of a place there is in the space i think it's gilliad. what's one tech stock carl icahn might be looking for apple to buy in his open letter tomorrow?
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quote, tomorrow, an open letter to tim cook. bloef it will be interesting. that sent shares of icahn holding a stake higher and a flurry of options activity. mike austin with a look at this activity. mike? >> that is situation where nuance traded ant five and a half times the average claiming option today and looking at the october 15 calls, most active ones in between the opening and 2:30 this afternoon, the first five hours of trading, only about contracts traded. after the tweet came out until the close, 7,100 contracts traded as buyers came in and swept up those calls and two interesting things and one of them is really about twitter and how important it has become as a medium for delivering news to traders and sblesing of nuance and what's happening on twitter and the markets. >> hey, did you get in on this trade? >> i did not. >> you did in the. >> i agree with mike.
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time for the final trade. around the horn. >> first of all, i can't wait to hear what carl icahn after what he heard tonight from marc andreessen. citibank, going higher. >> bk? >> i said at the top of the show i was shocked, shocked to hear the federal reserve talk about the dollar. i think it's a turning point for gold. gld, buy it. >> karen? >> i hope you make a lot of money on citi. i really, really do. >> you would make a lot of money, as well. wow. >> you are right. google. still like it. it was up today but it wasn't nuts. it's pretty valued right here. >> guy? >> fun show. always a fun show. >> always. >> every day.
five days a week. >> gap down. i think it's too much. >> you do? >> i think it's too much. gps. >> that's a great call. that's what i'm talking about. >> all right. i'm melissa lee. thank you for watching tonight. make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job not just to entertain but to educate. call me, tweet me. relief rally or real deal? that is what you have to ask about. any rally that starts because the federal reserve released minute that