tv Street Signs CNBC December 5, 2014 2:00pm-3:01pm EST
the company continental resources that lost nearly half its value in the last six months. we asked will the dow hit 18,000 today? 79% of you said no it won't. right now it is only about 30 points away. >> have a great weekend. "street signs" starts now. let the good times roll. jobs jump, oil and gas prices keep tanking. joins by steve liesman. can we say hello to a fed hike and jobs number. financials are loving it but of course oil is not. steve, what a number. >> it was a big number indicative of stronger data we generally have. two data points today from october were lower brought down fourth quarter.
this 321 needs to be confirmed. nobody is going to say we are suddenly at a rate of higher job growth. 225 about the middle. i think that is probably what the underlying trend is right now. what i liked about this report is the wage growth in it. hopefully that will continue. i liked how broad based the gains were. it told us there was strengd throughout and not just one number that made it. >> do you think you could put on your santa hat and give everybody an early christmas present? >> i think that follows as the job market gets tighter and employers are forced to give higher wages they will. they won't do it unless they are forced to. there is no santa claus in the paycheck. >> it is not just out of the goodness of my heart. >> if the job market gets tighter wages will go up. talk about king dollar. the u.s. dollar seems to be unstoppable against the yen. strongest seven week gains since
1995. let's get down to bob pisani in the nyse. earlier there was what you call an interesting push and pull between the economies getting better. how is the market feeling now? >> it is trying to split the difference. i have been saying all day if this were a year ago that would have been down 200, maybe 300 points. the market is taking it in stride. i thought industrials would be the leaders today. it hasn't worked out that way. a lot of people are surprised financials are leading. we have new highs on all big financial names. regional names like pnc, five or six other regional banks on highs on that nice gains as well as super regionals like wells fargo and money center banks all at new highs minus declines in interest rate but not much. at least the equities part of the market taking the concern
about potential higher rates very much in stride. we are at the door of 18,000. the real moves have been off of the october 15 bottom when we bottomed on that day. look at the sectors that have moved. we have strength in health care stocks, information technology, industrials and consumer discretionary. that is a very broad swath of the market to rally nicely just in about the last six weeks here. financials materials also moving quite well. guys, back to you. >> thanks. let's get to rick santelli in chicago. what kind of pricing are we seeing? i saw a couple double digit moves. >> absolutely. it is ironic to some extent because the biggest dynamic is the flattening yield curve. ten year note yields only up about five basis points from where they were prior to the number. we hover at 2.31. normally this number would have
dented stocks. let's be fair to that top of logic up 70 points isn't exactly stellar. i think for the most part it is a stellar number. it is taking maybe too many years to get there but we are there. if you look at the foreign exchange side that is really quite unbelievable. not only does the yen have 121 handle the dollar index at the best level in 8 1/2 years. we have heard inflation isn't running hot. the calibration of the fed to zero interest rate policy isn't right. calibration is the issue. we understand what is going on. traders continually debating today regarding what the fed's next move is. as many have written today the fed seems a little bit behind these numbers from the nonfarm side have been firming up for a while as you pointed out, steve liesman. >> i wonder, rick, how much calibration like a euphemism for a big move in the bond market.
how much calibration are we talking about if we put the fed in line with the markets or the other way around? >> i think it is very difficult to align the market with the fed. we don't know what the fed is really thinking. let's make it more simple. 25 overnight, basically 0 interest rate is not the right calibration even if you are strong that inflation rates remain between 1% and 2%. it is still too low. to get that overnight rate to that level would just go a long way in maybe not misdirecting funds. we are all worried about energy. where did the financing come from? all of the liquidity sloshing around. >> you will be joining chuck todd sunday for "meet the press" what will you be talking about? >> i'm not sure but i will be ready to talk about anything. hopefully we will be talking about the u.s. economy and the fed's six-year cure for a
two-year flu. >> i'm sure whatever the topic you will find something to say. thanks for joining us. much better than expected jobs report pushing the dow near 18,000. not just yet. the price of oil continues to drop. so is this the best of time for stocks? are there potentially head winds that we are missing? ward mccarthy chief economist of jeffries. david, is there something to squall the party? >> anything can derail it over the short term. on an intermediate term we think the components are in place for a generally good market. we think valuations are modestly overpriced. we think if the economy is good and today's numbers support that with energy prices low we think earnings will be good and should boost stocks over the next year. >> it is a little like there is a party going on and nobody
invited the ceos of america's biggest companies. when you listen to what they said to the ceo summit this week relatively down beat. that was the first thing. second of all, the numbers we have gotten from factory orders show business investment has been negative the last couple of months. is there something going on here where maybe there is some weakening or skepticism that will hurt this recovery and stop this economy from going into a higher gear? >> i think there is caution that is not warranted given what we are seeing in the economy. the employment numbers we have seen recently should cheer up the perpetual pessimist. i think that is what will happen even at the highest level of corporate america as we move into 2015. the data we saw today was quite good. the establishment survey was flat out muscular. the household survey wasn't quite encouraging. they have been moving together and the labor market lags the
economy. it doesn't lead the economy. so if we are seeing this type of improvement in labor market conditions now i think we can expect that the economy is going to continue to grow at a faster pace going forward. >> you are one of the most detailed and scrupueilous fed watchers i know. are you changing the outlook as to when federal reserve my -- >> not on the back of this data. if we were to put together three or four months of numbers like this and specifically if we see sustained increases in average hourly earnings then i start thinking about and being more inclined to pull forward the timing of when i think the fed hikes rates. right now i think it will take that long for the labor market to be in a state that you can call full employment. and we are nowhere as far as the inflation mandate is concerned. what has happened in energy
markets and commodity markets in general is moving the fed further away from the inflation target. >> excellent point. i understand you are starting to do bottom fishing particularly among larger energy players. do you think they have had their run to the down side. >> we think oil prices will stabilize at some point in the next few months with this as a bottom. we think they will enter a trading range of 75 to 85. he was pretty upbeat over the next 12 to 18 months. if you have a time rise in there where there are a lot of energy stocks the integrated oil companies that are attractive and paying a good dividend that is going to go up in the next year and you are buying at good prices. we will be buying stocks here, all very good companies. should have more upside when the sentiment gets a lot better.
>> go from that recommendation to another one here. would you be interested -- i know you don't recommend stocks but would you be interested in consumer stocks here because you think there is a bump to the consumer that will show up at the cash registers at the retail stores? >> by coincidence that is what i'm writing about in the weekly publication this week. i think the consumer is on the threshold of spending more. part of it is the job growth story. i think we will start to see wage growth. confidence is increasing and, of course, as we talked about earlier energy prices and gasoline prices have put more money in their pockets. i think this conditions for consumer are improving. >> was that a case of great minds think alike? >> i think there are two ways to play something. i think david represents an issue where you go bottom
fishing for stocks that are beat up. and there is another call on the other side of it. i don't know where the relative value is oil stocks or consumer stocks that maybe the stocks get beat up ahead of time and you can jump in as they ride higher or you play the other side of this which is benefit to the consumer from this. i'm not sure the market glommed on to this because we haven't seen the consumer spending yet. >> if brian sullivan was here he would say potentially the jobs that might be lost from lack of with falling oil price and lack of continued investment that that might counter that. >> if steve liesman were responding to brian sullivan i would say one of the things we have seen is this is a tremendous boom in oil production with not that many jobs. 250% increase in oil production at 36% increase in jobs. they are putting the wells in and not using a lot of rough necks to do it.
>> thank you very much for joining us. have a good weekend. we will be headed to the front lines of the economy to find out where exactly all of those jobs that have been created are. here is a hint. the sky is the limit. the two words uttered 18 years ago today that will forever go down in financial history. stick with us. we'll tell you what those two words are. financial noise financial noise financial noise i take prilosec otc each morning for my frequent heartburn. because it gives me... zero heartburn! prilosec otc. the number 1 doctor-recommended frequent heartburn medicine for 9 straight years.
irational exuberance has unduly exacerbated values which becomes subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions? >> that was former federal reserve chairman allen greenspan who made that statement on this day in 1996 questioning whether the stock market is overvalued due to irational exuberance. >> i don't know if it was four years too early but it is no use to the average investor. you would have pulled out of stocks in '96 and missed one of the most historic runs of the stock market. there was a point where you should have pulled out. >> it was a great phrase. >> i'm sure -- he would point out that i asked a question but he knew he was doing more. >> it was so much more than
that. >> the market likes today's jobs report. when it comes to finding jobs the sky is the limit. mary thompson has more on that. >> i am in the simulator where they train students for air traffic control jobs. the faa has to hire 10,000 new air traffic controllers in the next decade. these are people that monitor the 87,000 flights that take off and land here in the united states every day. the skies may be friendly but there is a constant need for people who keep the order, air traffic controllers. >> they have to be hired before their 31st birthday and required to retire before the age of 56. >> reporter: she says demand is strong because sequestration curtailed hiring last year and because a lot of the over 14,000 controllers that work today were hired after thousands were fired
in 1981. joe is a professor of aviation at dowelling college. >> if you consider 11,000 were hired between 1981 and 1991 there is going to be a large number of controlling leaving by their 56th birthday. >> reporter: so the faa needs to hire over 1,700 new controllers next year and almost 6,400 in the next five. accepted applicants will go through the training program followed by a couple of years of on the job training. once certified they can earn six figures. it used to be that students who were part of programs like dowellings were pretty much a shoe in for the program but they changed admissions. they feel training they get in simulators like this and towers provide them an advantage when they go to apply for that faa program.
>> why isn't that age discrimination when they have to retire? i don't want to change it because it ain't broke. why isn't that age discrimination? >> that is a union rule. they want you in the program by 31. you have to have 25 years to get your pension. a number of controllers are saying we want to work past 56. it is up to the union to decide. >> in every industry people are working longer and more productively than anybody thought they could. >> they want to grow retirement savings, steve. >> great reporting. >> uber securing yet another round of funding this time raising $1.2 billion putting the company's entire valuation at $40 billion. what do you make of this so-called $40 billion valuation? >> i am on record saying $40 billion for a taxi company is too much money. >> it is not just a taxi company. >> i want to know how many cars i can buy for $40 billion.
it seems like it is a little over the top. i can't see my way through this notion. i couldn't see it at 18 billion. my record on this is awful. >> one thing that people say and i know you have done a lot of work on this that could be a major obstacle for uber is the regulatory environment. >> we have been looking at licensing. the issue is that economists look at it as a reason for why dynamism in the labor market. people quitting and getting hired at new jobs and starting new businesses on the decline. economists want to know why. one of the things they found that they have gone from 5% of workers being regulated in 1950 now near 30% or about a third of workers need a piece of paper in order to do their business. it's not that economists think
they don't need education and training. sometimes they are out of whack. the result is these are businesses that end up creating a certification. >> unnecessarily red tape. >> perhaps the hardest hit is the back bone of the economy. kate rogers here with more on that side of the story. >> i heard you mention in "power lunch." louisiana is the only state in the country that requires licenses to sell bouquets. according to the institute for justice they have been challenging that requirement. you have to take a written test and pass it in order to get this license. >> is it because of the danger of the thorns of the roses? >> very risky. the pass rate of that exam -- >> allergic reactions to some of the flowers. >> that would be a real reason. >> you guys are being goofy but this is a serious thing. >> let her finish. >> the pass rate for the test is
now around 77%. it used to be only 50%. i spoke with a louisiana florist from gret na, louisiana. he said he got his license 57 years ago and had to take these tests and agrees with the policy because he had to prove skills before he was able to sell flowers. he says other people should have to do the same so the industry doesn't get a black eye. african hair braiding, 39 states now require braiders to be licensed. they are regulated as cosmetologists meaning they have extremely onerous requirements. and we should point out licensing has made its way up to the supreme court. the latest example, teeth whitening. justices heard out of a case of north carolina over whether or not nonlicensed dentists can
perform teeth whitening services. people say if you want to get your teeth whitened in a mall kiosk you should be able to do that. >> i was once burned and have never done it since. if you don't do it properly you can cause major damage to the gums. >> for small businesses and entrepreneurs licensing requirements are often in the top three issues that they cite. >> there is a place for the market to make some of the decisions and a place for government. and what i'm seeing and reading is that the government side is too far. >> how do we shake this out? when do we have peak regulation and go back down or does it get worse and worse? >> i did read a couple of stories of some republican governors that resisted some. >> eric cantor had been trying to do this earlier in the year. he said it takes ten times as long to become a cosmetologist in some states than a real
estate agent. 71 days and counting. what are we talking about? we are telling you the one thing that has not happened in that time span that should have you jumping for joy. >> and later the baby indicator. the big stat that could be a red flag for the economy. stick with us. we'll be back in just a few minutes mp
. more good news, america, especially before you hit the roads for the weekend. pump prices continue to fall. aaa quotes the average price of a gallon of regular gas at $2.71. gasoline prices have fallen for 71 straight days without breaking. it's amazing. >> they are continuing to slide today. let's get to jackie deangelis frst latest. >> reporter: we are seeing oil prices depressed but rebounding from lows of the session. crude down 62 cents. we are watching brent under the key technical level of $70 a barrel. steeper selling action after the jobs report sent the dollar higher. the dollar is a big part of this
story. also, geopolitically still watching saudi arabia, the news that saudi is cutting prices to asia and the u.s. not really new news here. it can't keep its price over the spot price in the market. that message that saudi was sending this week to the market by saying oil will stabilize at $60 a barrel, a lot of traders are saying the saudis are kind of like the fed. don't fight the fed, don't fight the saudis. there is a reason they put that message out into the market place. a lot of traders believe we will stabilize there. we could see wti with a 50 something handle. we are looking at wti flat and a loss of brent at about 1%. >> thank you very much jackie deangelis. big drop in oil prices must be bad news for environmentalists who want to get the u.s. off oil. it is hard to get people to invest in solar and wind and gas
is $2 and change per gallon. joining us is bob deans from the defense council. thank you for joining us. how do you see this from the environmental perspective? >> i think most americans have gotten used to these kinds of cycles. oil prices go up and down and back up again. what it means always is that american families, workers, our whole economy is held hostage to global market conditions we can't control or predict. that is why eight american presidents going back to richard nixon have called on us as a nation to reduce our reliance on oil, to break this costly addiction to oil. let's invest in efficientancies so we can do more with less waste. let's make workers more competitive. let's get more power from the wind and the sun. let's build in this country the best hybrid and electric cars anywhere in the world. let's keep our eye on the clean energy ball so that no matter what happens in the global oil markets americans will have access to affordable energy not
just for a weak or two or a month but for all time. >> bob, obviously when you have oil prices going down like this it is a huge challenge to the whole renewal business. how do you fix that? obviously there has been a lot of talk about a gas tax. what about a subsidy relative to price of oil for things like solar and hybrids and fuel efficient cars? >> it certainly makes sense for us as a nation to be devoting collective resources to more wind and solar. here is what is happening. over the last two years 2012 and 2013, 44% of all of our new electricity generating capacity in this country came from wind and sun, 44%. there are 200,000 americans who get up every day, roll up their sleeves, go to work putting up wind turbines and solar facility. that is a lot of jobs and a lot of progress for america. that is good for the country. it is worth national investment. >> i don't quite get that.
you are saying 44% of what came from wind and solar? >> 44% of all new electric generating capacity. the electricity that will power our future. >> do you feel the uptake of certain cleanergies like solar are not as fast as predicted. >> if we look at a temporary market condition like oil prices to set that progress back that would be a huge mistake. after all, we are using in this country 800 million gallons of oil every day. that's enough to fill the empire state building three times. it's enormous amount. >> bob, you are here with a very upbeat and positive message. but i have to think you are sitting there thinking several years of gains of what you worked for is now about to go down the tubes. what are you predicting when it comes to hybrids and solar and wind? that 44%, i wonder if it will be
0 next year? >> it won't be. here is why. americans look at the long term. i was in south carolina a couple weeks ago, my daughter is going to college there. folks buy cars and trucks there. they are saying i want a vehicle that will be around for 8, 10, 15 years. they are not looking at the price of oil last week or next week. they are saying common sense tells me this market condition is temporary. it is not going to stay like this. we have to invest for the future. we are planning on the energy future of tomorrow. we cannot anchor our future in the dirty fossil fuels of the past. we have got to power our country for the 21st century on the clean energy solutions of tomorrow. that is how we create jobs and growth and how we create real energy security for america. >> certainly lower incentive right now. thank you very much for laying out your case. it is an interesting discussion. >> we should probably look at tesla and solar stocks for an idea of what the market thinks about the future for some of
that. two bold tech calls, street talk is on deck. we are still on dow 18,000. at the moment sitting at 17,964. we ain't there yet. do stick with us. you're driving along, having a perfectly nice day, when out of nowhere a pick-up truck slams into your brand new car. one second it wasn't there and the next second... boom! you've had your first accident. now you have to make your first claim. so you talk to your insurance company and... boom!
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here is that tesla chart. you can see what happened down from north of 240 to now approaching 220. down 8.6% on the week. that is a sign of the concern that investors in these kinds of stocks have. >> we were just talking a moment ago. you have gasoline at $2 a change a gallon. what is the incentive to get an electrical car. >> it is a huge policy issue as to whether or not we need to put something in to stabilize so they do continue with conservation. >> absolutely. time for something we do every day at this time it is called street talk. what's our first stock? >> first up bank of america down grades google but upgrades yahoo. let's go with google. >> let's start with the goog. this is part of the 2015 online
outlook. downgrading to neutral from buy and cutting price objective to $580 from $600. they say there are various obstacles out there like lack of product, increased regularatory risks and a strong apple product cycle. >> nicely done. on the flip side yahoo getting that boost to a buy. >> the analysts at b of a upgrading yahoo to buy from neutral citing commerce exposure. the price objective -- >> that has been out there for a while. goldman adding tyson foods. goldman likes chicken. >> they process all kinds of products. they see it as an under appreciated structural chain story partly to the hill shire
brands acquisition and say there is room for others. >> another addition to goldman's conviction buy list northrop. goldman likes weapons. >> security company. >> weapons and chicken. >> stocks soaring up about 6% but up about 30% year to date. goldman sees a scenario here. they also think that free cash is going to be very strong for several more years. they are going to keep on buying. >> i wonder how much depends on sequestering. mccorey upgrading stars to outperform. do you watch it? >> i do not but i will start, i guess. it lost its premium yesterday which is basically saying they had a big drop in share price
which was after the quote that cbs is not interested in buying them. they believe the occasion may not last long. they also have an upside scenario of $42 if they get acquired. starz so far this year has been under performing. >> we saw that cliff right there. now to talking numbers, daily look at a stock from a fundamental and technical perspective. we will talk starbucks and the technical aspects of making espresso. >> froth the milk. >> let's start talking numbers. will slavery -- will slaben on the technicals.
>> as far as the analysts say yesterday they evolve around a five-year plan laid out well in terms of doubling by 7% a year. they have a year that remind us to be able to execute on that. as far as getting beyond valuation i think you have to seek accelerating traffic growth domestically. i think that is tough to do in this brick and mortar environment. >> what do the charts say? >> it is a technically strong setup. i will give a history lesson as to the merits of the setup. from november 2013 until today we have about a year round breakout. what we have seen on the approach to the $80 level has been a pair of about $12.70 moves back from early 2014 and then the current one that took us up through the $80 level. in classic dow theory, charles dow was the grandfather of technical analysis he gave us a real clean uptrend three phases.
the first is the accumulation which we saw in early 2014. now we are in the wide spread participation phase. generally that goes about two-thirds the distance travelled in the first rally. that takes us from current levels up to about $91. this is a trade i like to put on. i like to buy closer to the $81, $82 level. it looks like a clean break in progress. >> thank you for joining us. enjoy your weekend. coming up we have a live interview with the man himself, howard schultz, starbucks ceo 4:20 eastern time. be sure to check out the online edition of "talking numbers" in partnership with yahoo finance. fewer babies are being born to buy that starbucks coffee in america. this could be bad news overall for the economy. there is a new delivery service that retailers are hoping will help them avoid a repeat of last year's christmas delivery disaster.
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highs. crude sitting at 65.73 today settling at the lowest level since july 2009. incredible. >> delivery disasters last christmas had a lot of consumers and retailers wishing for alternatives to fed ex and ups. now a new same day delivery service is helping retailers compete with amazon. courtney reagan joins us now with more. who has the nerve to take on those companies? >> it has to be a startup. it is a crucial time of year for package delivery. getting it wrong it is a crucial mistake. it is a crowd sourced alternative. here is a look at how it works. >> reporter: for tourists and urbanites in the mall getting your purchase home can be a problem. >> people come at lunch time to shop. they don't want to bring packages to their office and don't want to stop doing what they are doing and go back to their hotel. >> reporter: suburbanites, too.
>> they simply can't carry anymore. >> translator: crowd sourcing same day delivery of these two orders. one-on-one fulfilled by the customer's nearest macy's store. this one is at the mall and shoppers drop off packages. drivers and super smart algorithm ensure an economical business model and convenience. >> one thing that is more important than speed in a delivery for customers and that is predictability. >> shipping fees continue to be the number one reason consumers abandon their shopping carts online. retailers and mall operators like general growth properties are pitching in at least for the holidays. >> the price for the retailers is $5 to $15 depending on the volume and depending on the distance and how the retailer passes that on to the customers is up to them.
>> you may pay for it or not. it says demand is through the roof. amazon does continue to invest on new stores. there is competitors but this is the only one with the option on the checkout page. you can say get it to me same day. >> i will try it out. i want to talk about sears because yesterday it made pretty big news, sad news, i guess, if you are potentially going to be laid off. >> sears made an announcement it plans to close 235 stores of 1,800. not a huge percentage but it is notable because it is a retailer we point to a lot as potentially one on the edge of no longer existing. what is happening is an interesting thing. he sort of stripping out all of the assets inside to protect himself, to make money to continue to generate liquidity.
i'm not sure he cares if sears ends. >> what about a bet on sears? if you had to bet next year this time is sears around? is sears out there? >> i bet they make it through next holiday season but by spring of 2016 they are gone. that would be what i would say. >> that is a bold call. >> we had tom stemberg on the show. do we have a sound byte from him? let's play this. >> i think they are both going into the gutter. k mart slightly faster than sears. there is real estate value left there but that is about it. >> that is what stemberg is talking about the real estate. he loaned money to sears but owns both so he is sort of doing this circular funnel and
stripping out anything valuable on the titanic as it is sinking he is grabbing the valuables and selling them off. >> thank you very much. the birth rate in the united states falls for the sixth straight year. you got to start doing your bid for it. why this could be a big problem for the economy. >> you, too, steve. >> not my job. there's a difference when you trade with fidelity. one you won't find anywhere else. one-second trade execution. guaranteed. did you see it? in one second, he made a trade, we looked for the best price, and the trade went through. do the other guys guarantee that? didn't think so. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. having a perfectly nice day, when out of nowhere a pick-up truck slams into your brand new car. one second it wasn't there and the next second...
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moment ago we were telling you crude settled at the lowest since 2009 and we thought it was your idea, steve, to bring up the five-year chart for an idea. >> yeah. >> of where -- you know, the volatility, the spikes that we reached and then come all the way back down again. >> look at that. it's very sharp right there. no baseballs, more problems. that's what it says there. national center for health s statistics said that birthrates have fallen again. since 2007, rates fallen a total of 7%. is this a problem for the economy, joe? >> it is, steve, if it lasts but as i'm sure you'll agree, six
years ago the economy entering a recession and i believe a lot of this slowdown in birth and certainly more broadly in labor participation is largely a cyclical story and if the economy does better and by all indications it is you'll see the birthrates pick up again. >> there's a longer term secular trend as we call it in economics of lower birthrates and happens and curious, it's sort of not what you expect of human beings. you would expect that as they get wealthier, they more kids with an idea to pass on the genes or whatever we can take care of our kids but what goes on when every society is wealthier is rates decline and going from quantity of children to quality of children. so, joe -- >> that's right, steve. >> what's the long-term trend here? >> i'm still of the view that the long-term trend in births, labor force growth, if you will,
about 1%. we have been weaker than that recently and we go through periods with higher and lower birthrates and due to the recession and young people with tremendous amount of student debt. hard time finding meaningful employment and last thing to do is leave their parents if you will and starting up a new formation and starting a family. to me that's a powerful force and if we get some immigration policy, broader policy over a few years that also will do wonders for u.s. birthrates and population. >> what people don't understand is what distinguishes us in an important way of europe is immigration policy. they're aging faster and the reason we're not aging as fast is because of immigration in the united states. when you look forward to that 1%, how critical is immigration policy and a good immigration policy to keep at least that 1% going at 1% population growth? >> it's very important, steve,
because as you know over long periods of time, even worth a quarter or a third of a point, you know, exponentially that's a lot of growth over a long period and a big difference of 1% or three quarters or half a percent and it's very important and unlike other countries, japan, for example, their industrial economy got very low birthrates and they don't have a lot of immigration, hardly at all. so that makes me more upbeat. a stronger economy which will facilitate a higher birthrate. there has to be the parties agree on it. it's a question of how you get there. and that's going to help. no question. it's a big factor. >> do you see any other potential types of reform on the horizon? i'm going to go back to the time living in singapore and they really wanted to bump up the population and get people to get out there and make babies and so they changed various things, workplace laws, for example,
maternity leave times. it went from two months to three months and might not seem like that but three months sounds better than two months and believe it or not it's worked. do you see any other changes for example in the workplace to incentivize people to have babies? >> no, mandy. i don't. i mean, there's basic things that congress and the administration have been able to get done at this point. i don't see something as micro as sort of getting birthrates higher to change anything but what i'll say is again if the labor market continues to do what i think it will, 241,000 per month and that rate holding every other assumption, that's 4.6%, 4.7% next year and has to be positive for household formations and getting the economy growing again because what's happens in some
economies, europe, for example, what starts as cyclical is then structural and if the u.s. economy can enter a much stronger self sustaining phase of output as i believe it will, you'll look for birthrates over time to grow higher and this concern that we've -- in this new secular down trend will reverse. i think people are pessimistic and reflects the fact that the recovery on average is pretty week to this point. >> joe, we have to leave it there. thank you so very much for joining us. >> quickly, joe is crazy with his gdp numbers and you know what? he's also been right. he's been -- >> shout out to joe. >> working fourth quarter at 4.2%. the high of our wrap it up update. you can smile and smile with the fourth quarter number. stay with us. >> crazy and right. >> we've got our big stats and stocks of the week coming up for you.
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gear in the economy. >> we hope so. my stock of the week is biogen up 11% this week. year to date now up 22%. it's thanks to news presented earlier on the week in the week about the late-stage trial for experimental alzheimer's drug. thank you so much for joining us. steve -- >> have a great weekend. >> thank you for joining us, as well. safe travels for the weekend. see you monday. welcome to "the closing bell." don't look now but a dow 18,000 hat just walked by. >> all over the place here. >> i'm kelly evans. this is "the closing bell." we are at new york stock exchange and where today could be history in the making. >> yeah. that's been the expectation and pulling back right now. the dow's up 47 points. we were up, need to be up 100 almost exactly to hit 18,000. we got close. a couple of hours