tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC December 29, 2014 12:00pm-1:01pm EST
pace for their eighth straight quarter of gains that hasn't happened since the late '90s. >> back to october thought we would be sitting here now after what went on in october no way. >> ebola a big scare. three years of double-digit gains for the s&p haven't done that sinces the '90s. over to headquarters brian sullivan and the half. all right. thanks a lot, carl. everybody, welcome to the halftime report. i am brian sullivan in for scott today. meets the starting lineup. john najarian, co-founder of option munster, steve weiss, managing partner of short hills capital, josh brown joins us from florida because warmth and mike san tilly, columnist for yahoo! finance. we are close to the finish line of what's been a huge year for stocks. 2 1/2 trading days left in the year. those are the trading hours, not all the hours, just the trading hours, left in the year.
we are cnbc, we can count. we want to know how everybody is playing the brief time that we have left. time for a look now at the big picture. first dom chu, morgan brennan here. what are you seeing? >> [ inaudible ]. >> all right. we're going to go to the traders. dom, we'll get to you in a second. it's what happens. >> this was a great setup. >> not a great first two minutes. stephen weiss since you're being snarky -- >> more often, i'm just warming up. >> here's what i see for 2015. >> i take full blame for that mistake. went to dom before he was ready. >> i think small caps catch up. take a lock at where they are and historical valuation it's difficult to look at that actually because there are different situations that occur like in '08, or '09 was blown out, but take a look at the russell and what the growth will
be in the u.s. economy, it's going to be felt most by the smaller cap companies. so we're in a year where the russell hasn't done much, up about 4, 4.5%, lagging all year long. i think the s&p will do fine but the russell will outperform going forward. so i've been setting up and put a position on the russell. >> john najarian, are you in the small caps big performers camp? no i think they will be for a lot of the reasons that stephen and josh has talked about before, for these guys to be able to borrow at these excessively low rates, is man na from heaven for them. for the bigger stocks they can do it in a tougher environment. i like that side of the trade. i like the way energy is acting today. for that matter i like the way the german dax came back 110 points today. i mean it was all the way down 9700 and change. the german market. came all the way back to almost
unchanged. which is a pretty big rally. they were closed ahead of christmas. so this is their first day back. >> josh brown, you said you're looking for underperforming asset classes around the world. you heard jon mentioned germany. greece a still big story. what are you looking at specifically globally? >> yeah, brian. this year what we're doing, you know, you got 2 1/2 days left. the bulk of our activity is closed out. at this point, but i would say the broad strokes are, we've trimmed back some of the huge gains in u.s. stocks. and we've added to areas that underperformed this year. europe was an easy candidate to pick out. i agree with mr. weiss on small caps. last week i flagged this technical breakout above 1200 on the russell which really was about a year in the making, brian. this was an index that bumped up against 1200 three times over the prior 12 months, could not get through, momentum building. these stocks basically sat the year out, consolidated after as
massive 2013 and look like they want to take the baton. it would make perfect sense if that were to be the case heading into 2015. seasonally speaking the russell tends to do better than large caps also. i like that idea of his and believe european valuations are worth the buy. i know all the bad news, i understand greece, but i think the market understands that as well. these stocks are cheap, these stocks should do much better going forward. >> yeah. mike, you and i are journalists not market analysts. nobody cares about our opinion but let's give it anyway. one of my predictions, i'm going to do it on the 2:00 p.m. eastern time show, the dow up next year. i think the economy will be the story, stocks not so much. you agree. we love having you on the program. why do you think 2015 will be the year of the economy, not so much the stock market. they are different things? >> they are different things. i think we've had several years where the stock market has outraced the domestic economy to a large degree and obviously you have valuations that have
reflected the good news that we're finally seeing evident in the consumer numbers and job numbers. i don't think that means bad year for stocks. i actually don't really quibble with the idea that small caps could be outperformers. that's a function also of this orientation toward a stronger domestic economy. i'm a little more focused right now tactically on how this year end looks somewhat similar to last year end. you are up 12% from an october low. this year and last year. investor sentiment getting balled up, everyone thinks we're up 10% next year. you have to be careful for a gut check. we got it in january last year. we won't get it this year because people like me notice the similarities and not going to get an exact rerun. i think you've got a lot of progress made in equity valuations relative to where the economy is. >> we will get to that. dominic chu is ready. first a tweet from a viewer, the odds josh brown is wearing flip flops and bathing suit beneath his waist. >> 100%.
>> 100%. he won't stand up. >> let's debate it. >> we'll go around the trading horn. dominic chu, finally ready after i called on him way too early. that's a different show on msnbc. we've got morgan brennan ready as well. >> i don't know how to debate a bull/bear on flip flops or swim trunks are underneath. let's pick up on what josh brown and steve weiss were talking about. we want to put it in context so if you're a viewer or listener and haven't felt the scope of what happened with the russell you should know that it's only up about 4, 5% year to date. it's really here, look at this chart, it's really the last few months here that a lot of investor interest here. for the russell 2,000 small index it's up since the lows we saw mid-october, right around october 15th. a lot of biotechnology stocks help drive that performance. that's one of the main reasons why a lot of people are maybe a little bullish about this market going forward because small
caps, more lever to the u.s. economy, are taking the weight higher. the mid cap 400 also a strong move higher here, near record levels as well, and you can see here, just for the last couple months, since mid-october, a huge move higher as well, up again about 14%. so two indexes doing very well on the smaller end of the cap spectrum. we can't forget about the s&p 500. that's up as well. again, record levels. but it's also you can see here up again for the year to date but look at the overall picture for the s&p 500. because that's going to be a huge move here. that stock index is up steadily over the course of what we've seen here. in the last couple months since october 15th you can see here up again 12.5%. and, of course, when we talk about the large cap index, you got to mention that utilities are a huge part of that story. they're not big with regard to the overall makeup of the s&p 500. the only make up about 2 or 3%. the number one performing sector overall in the s&p 500 year to date, utilities.
maybe that's not a great sign but still up close to 30% on the year so far. >> back to you. >> not bad but overall morgan brennan, the nasdaq technology names have been where the action is. what are you seeing? >> taking a look at large cap names specifically on the nasdaq 100. the nasdaq 100 is on track to close about 20% higher this year and some of the biggest winners here, have been keurig green mountain, up about 80% so fares this year. obviously we've seen a strong coffee pot and machine sales and coca-cola taking a majority stake in the company and two names that have been strong performers this year that are new additions, just in the last several weeks, to the nasdaq 100, are american airlines, that stock doubled this year, in general seen airlines really performing well, because of those lower fuel costs, higher fees and prices, also ea, electronic arts. the video game publisher has more than doubled this year, up about 10 8% thanks to better than expected earnings on games
like fifa and madden nfl. on the flip side, some laggards this year, amazon, of course, that's down about 21% this year. early reads show we have a strong holiday season for the e-commerce giant but keep in mind, this company has just been spending in lots of new projects and doing that as growth in its core business has slowed down. another laggard this year, wynn resorts. casino operators suffering, a lot having to do with macau and the fact that we've seen growth there and casino gaming there really come off this year. and lastly, mattel this stock down about 35% and that's because brands like barbie have just been slumping. so three winners, three losers in general, nasdaq 100 on track for another really good year. >> all right. morgan brennan, thank you very much. jon najarian, any trade from what we heard from dom or morgan. >> still like [ inaudible ]. another 52-week high without the interest rates moving higher this year and nothing but
billion dollar fines everywhere, xlf to outperform next year. >> 10% last week, misunderstood, he said 2015, with 1999. that's not meaning calling a top order, meaning he's looking for a positive market. nasdaq was up 84% in 1999. let's not talk about the following three years. russell up 19%, s&p up 19%. why? u.s. growth was exploding. that's what we're going to see and why the russell does well. >> and i heard what you say and i agree with you, misinterpreted by some, they took the headline without understanding the nuance. valuation was also a big part of his thesis, all stocks fairly valued here, 99, 30, 40 times forward earnings was hard to argue fair value then. >> first of all, that was leading to 2000 when valuations come. you have to be careful about citing p/es. what drives markets are earnings not p/es. p/es is a fallout function of earnings.
we're not overvalued by any stretch. i would say that maybe the uk is more fully valued than we are. maybe the msci europe is more fully valued because of the components which are financials, which are telcoses, not growth stocks like health care and technology here. making us cheaper than those markets. >> thank you very much, stephen weiss. coming up on the fast money halftime report which retailers landed on the nice list this holiday, which ones were a bit naughty? we're calling in an expert, former toys r us ceo is here. "the interview" pulled in $15 million over the weekend despite showing in 331 theaters what is the outlook for sony? and breaking up is easy to do? jim cramer will call in, he has a list of 10 companies that he believes should head for splitsville. do the traders agree? carl icahn does with one of the picks. "halftime report" will be back after this. rtgage shouldn't be a problem, your credit is in pretty good shape.
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shares shares surging after carl icahn disclosed a major stake in the company. icahn pushing for the manufacturer to break up its crane and food service business. it's an idea that our own jim cramer wrote about in his book "get rich carefully" and he also talked about on "mad money." listen to this. >> if manny toe work were to follow my advice, the same
adrice investors are giving them and spin off the food service division i think both companies would get higher priced to earnings multiple separately. certainly then as they're getting together. that's because investors love it when a company is easy to understand. with businesses that all point in the same direction. >> so that guy jim cramer joining us by phone. number five on your ten companies that you think should head for splitsville, number one ice machine maker in the world. what don't you like about it? >> brian, how can it be that fast food machinery and cranes are under one roof? i cannot figure that out. and i know they can't either. but they continue to think that this somehow is a way to create value. i'm with carl icahn all-in. the fact that the stock hasn't done anything in years is the most telling portion about why they ought to make this move. >> if you need to get an ice machine to the 17th floor, they would be the one-stop shop.
>> that could be the synergy. maybe that's what it's all about. because i sure can't figure it out otherwise? carl icahn, 7.7% stake, you know better than i do, carl has been very, very good in getting companies to listen to his advice or shaking them out for it. do you believe that manny ta whack will listen. >> i believe they have to listen. what's unfortunate what happened with the driving force there, this is quite different. this is a guy, carl icahn, who basically says, i can see clear roads. what this reminds me of, ebay/paypal. ebay was going to do nothing. carl suggested dump paypal and the separation. the company does listen although at first they dismissed it. this company will dismiss it and the stock will do nothing, the next quarter terrible, they will say how much longer can we deal with terrible quarters. i think the fast food business, the casual restaurant business
are strong and, therefore, i think the equipment business pore those restaurants will be quite strong. i want as piece of that. so there's a lot of ways once these two companies are separate you can bring out value. >> three of the ten companies in your book "get rich carefully" are pharma or pharma related. perken elmer makes equipment, merck and johnson & johnson. what i was surprised by, though, is maybe, jim, a name you left out, ibm. what do you make of them? >> see, ibm, i think that, frankly, i'm not sure what they could break up into because they've tried to become a software company, they've gotten out of big hardware, but they present themselves i think as a one-stop solution. manny ta whack cannot present as a one stop solution. company like merck should break off the animal health. johnson & johnson has gotten rid of the divisions i felt were weaker. ibm i don't know what they would break themselves into. they can't be the company they
want to be unless they stay together at the same time, they're getting their head beat in everywhere. they don't offer the level of value that people think they do. i'm not sure. one thing, i'm not running ibm. i think that would be a very difficult thing to do right now. >> it's steve. as we look back over our careers, there have been a number of cycles where mergering and acquiring was the thing to could and other cycles de-merging. as i look at yours list what strikes me about it, you don't need for them to break up because they're great companies with solid business models so it's like a win-win. if you own them they should participate in enough market and outperform in a down market because of the beta. if they break up you can get rich from it. is that the thought process on the stocks? >> what people are going after are companies that have already been winners. manny ta whack has been stuck because of the crane business. another one i've been recommending that i think could
be attractive is jack in the box. they've got this division that is very much like what chipotle displayed with accelerating business. at the same time jack in the box at a 52-week high. i could see someone taking a stake, ask the company to divide in two and they agree and instead of a stock that has been magnificent in the 80s goes to 100. i felt the same way about bob evans farms. looks like they may go that way. you have companies already winning. jack in the box up another percent today, up 60s% for the year. took the next step and dichdsed it into ka doba and jack in the box you have $100 stock within a week. >> burger king buying tim hortons now jim talking about spinning off. if somebody could combine a burrito and crow nut. >> somebody in my office did actually. >> you have, weiss. >> not me. >> shack could be the one that does that. a new -- we have a public offering by danny meyer, who doesn't want a piece of that. >> i want a piece of that.
one on your list i loved was oxy. because many of those others are at 52-week highs as you describe like jack in the box and so forth but oxy is down 20, 25% year to date. it's done nothing over the past decade. when you look at how the performance has been. i like this pick because i think you can get a little more of an activist bent on it, the same way you did, kudos to you in manny ta whack with ok dental petroleum because people are tired of nonperformance here. >> yes. they went after california which is something that frankly i don't think anyone really wants. what you need it if you have a big chemical business here, you have a business that i think is undervalued in terms of an international oil company and you have a 3.5% yield. that hasn't prevented some of the oils from going down but this is down a lot, down 20 straight points. interesting. we see oil trying to find its
way i agree, i think oxy's time. >> what do you want to see have happen with amat? you want the solar assets gone? >> yeah. you know, amat subsequently did the tokyo electron and i think that various times right now, solar is not doing so well. so at the time when i wrote the book, we still felt that solar was an alternative. i think solar comes back as a way to play it and i think they have terrific solar. in the meantime the semiconductor business, whether land, amat, is on fire. amat doesn't have to do anything. once they put together the tokyo electron and mooths everything out there's no reason to continue to have solar. they could take the hit or perhaps people come back and recognize solar is not going away. amat is worth more than 25 bucks. >> jim named ten. we talked seven. let people buy the book and get the other three. "get rich carefully." thanks for calling in have a happy new year if i don't see you. >> i love you guys, thank you so
much for checking in with me. >> while we're on the line i just got morgan stanley's note as jim's talking. and they have a base case of manny toe whack of 20s an bull case of $30. they think it's fully in the stock what's happening except they still have -- >> the stock as it is not analyzing it if it breaks up. >> breakup value 30? >> some of the parts. >> 30. >> carl icahn must see something different. >> a bull case on the parts is 30 and they just put that note out. >> all right. >> options -- >> my problem with that is -- >> go ahead, jim. >> the company, who can run an ice machine maker that sells cranes in asia. >> they are based in northern wisconsin. natural ice sort of synergy there. >> there is a synergy there. the cranes build giant ig glys made from the ice machines. >> you're right. that may cause the discount. that is one -- the total addressable market is -- >> discount double check.
aaron rodgers icing up his ankle. thank you, buddy. >> do you do this on "street signs" too? >> do what? >> you know, jump with these comments all the time? >> scott wapner is on a beach getting a massage i'm going to do what i want. >> we have unusual activity, brian. take a look, folks, we have activity back in october, we talked about it then when the stock was at the 52-week low and made a nice pop back over 20. then, it just has been languishing here until both jim cramer and, of course, carl icahn came out with these comments. stock pops significantly. i'll note for you, that tuesday of last week, just heading into christmas, a no volume time, it traded about 6 or 7 times normal volume. and they were buying january 21 calls. those calls went up 400% from where they bought them. so that was somebody who at least thought they knew something last week. >> as far as i understand this
isn't the first icahn situation where you have been able to sniff these out. family dollar, might have seen some of that. >> exactly. it's not carl buying them. i think it's probably the guys that supply over the counter options to carl that were in there hedging their bets covering themselves to the extent that they could, by buying whatever they could get their hands on and -- >> yeah. we got to go but let's not forget this is a building play. if you think global economies will grow, skyscrapers will go up, it was a $44 stock in 2007. on deck, baron's unveiling ten favorite stocks for next year but our traders are not on board with all these calls. which hit the bull's eye and which ones may be full of bull. halftime right back.
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more trouble in greece. cnbc's chief international correspondent michele caruso-cabrera is on the phone. michele, what is the latest with greece? >> the latest is that based on what happened with the presidential election we're asking whether or not greece could leave the euro again. the same question we were asking back in 1999 and 2000. the issue here is the following. they will have to have elections far earlier than expected. supposed to happen in 2016. instead they will happen january
of 2015. right now, if those elections were held today based on the poll numbers the leader of the radical left would win and even though he has said he does not want to leave the euro, all of the conditions he imposes on all the international organizations for staying in the euro, are pretty untenable. people are looking at this, not guaranteed leaving the euro but they're step closer. that's why you see the greek markets get hit hard. you don't see a europe effect because a lot of greece's debt is held by the official, not banking sector, we don't have to worry about a blowup of the balance sheets of banks in europe or the united states. it's hedge funds and greek pension funds that have a lot of exposure and the european tack payer as well -- taxpayer awell. >> the name of the political party syriza. i mean listen seems like we're going back to the future with greece. concerns about the eurozone,
bank debt tied to the greek sovereign debt or there was. any way to trade this? are you watching it? >> not particularly, but the dax, the german index i mentioned top of the show, volatility is up pretty substantially in there. it's up about 8% today. and it did have a pretty wild bounce off of the bottom today. so watch that because germany being the one that's going to drag its feet the most on what could happen as far as a bailout or a throwout with greece, that's what i would watch as far as for clues. >> and i would imagine, mike, currencies as well. the greek, obviously it's all the euro. >> yeah. >> however greece's economy has. the laggard for years. if there is any chance at all they leave the eurozone and the european monetary union and go back to the track ma, maybe -- track ma, maybe that would lift an anchor or weight off. >> i think the way the markets are taking it in stride not building in a probability of a radical move like that. i think the real takeaway, any,
what does it mean for people's building expectations for what the central bank does. clear sailing to aggressive policy next year and does this have to slow them down? they're meeting in january. do they have to work around the greek election. that parlor game as opposed to is the euro going to hold the question we had in 2011. >> thank you very much. michele still out there, thank you as well. bring it back to the u.s. holiday shopping season. yeah, most of it is over and a few retail habits are known like our next guest. gerry storch former cease of toys r us and joins us now with his three big themes for 2015 and gerry, once you become ceo i hope to see you again but before you officially do, your themes, why is the high-end consumer going to continue to roll next year? >> well, start with luxury and the high-end consumer has money. stock market is up, a strong
correlation between the stock market performance and the consumption of luxury goods. the next is the internet. you know, omni channel retail has grown dramatically wheres customers, you know, for example, shop on-line and pick up in the store. the brick and mortar have come back strong using the internet as a tool to drive their business. the third theme is value. that continues since the great recession the consumer is heavily focused on value. companies likes costco, spectacular, it's a retailer's retailer. people like tj max, ross stores, dollar general deliver value every day. >> okay. so let's square that a bit. high-end will do well, that seems logical, they have money and will spend it. the value plays, is it fair to say maybe if the economy continues to do well, maybe not a 5% gdp print but good, that almost every retailer will do well? >> well, only if they're doing a good job at delivering. i do believe the high end will
do well. value means real value not fake value. you have to be delivering something consumers want at a price and the internet, if it does nothing else, creates price transparency so you have to provide that value every day or else they'll go somewhere else and shop elsewhere. it's not every retailer. it's those that are doing well. i mentioned the internet because it is the biggest thing going on in retail and some retailers are very advanced on this, take someone like, for example, macy's or nordstroms or walmart done a great job, a target is coming on stronger, best buy, these companies have done a fantastic job of catching up on the internet. not just a game for the internet only retailers. there are others that haven't done well and they have to catch up fast. >> i want to call an audible and take a look at oil. this does fall into the retail spectrum. guys, wti printed at another five-year low. a trade at $53.52. so gerry, gas prices, $1.98 in
some parts of america. how big of a deal is this some. >> i think it's phenomenal and it's not just about gas prices. this is energy prices. and it permeates the economy. every single product that's sold has a transportation cost component. that's in the cost of goods. lower transportation costs. raw materials costs are going to come down. many raw materials contain oil. plastics, right, synthetic fibers contain energy, and then additionally many, many manufacturing processes are very energy intensive. aluminums, the study, for example. plenty of goods. high energy costs in them. all of these prices are going to come down, plus you have lower costs for gasoline. it's a huge driver for the economy but stays this low. >> josh, jump in here. >> i would ask gerry, what would you say to the idea where there might be saturation in the
discount retailing arms of a lot of these businesses if? obviously off fifth, saks fifth avenue version, tj max, the growth of those store bases is almost outstripping the growth of the original retailers carrying these goods at their full price early. is that a concern for you? is that a concern for the industry? or is it something that can continue at the pace it's at? >> i believe that's where the consumer is going and going to continue. take a look at tj max's numbers. they reported november sales i believe, they were excellent. they continue to drive. year after year, quarter after quarter. they have the longest stream going of positive same-store sales of any major retailers i know of. their market cap over $40 billion. tj max, not target. ross stores, 15 billion on market cap. these companies are driving performance. quarter after quarter. and the reason why is because that's what the consumer wants.
they won't buy anything at regular price, certainly not in that price spectrum. they want to get a deal every day and that's what's being offered. >> gerry, hudsons bay, now i don't expect you to be able to talk about it because you're not there yet, tremendous real estate story. can you tell us if any other retail stories have the same hidden asset potential. >> some say retailers are an efficient way of holding real estate. look who owns their real estate. i worked at target for many years. target owns a lot of their real estate. huge value there. and, you know, it's -- it's tough making money as a retailer every day but a lot better do something on the real estate than just hold it. any company that has a high owned ratio of their real estate is going to do well. not so much those that lease a lot. somebody will say a lot of those leases are below market but that's harder to convert on. look for the companies that own much of their real estate. >> gerry, ceo of hudsons bay,
known for their beaver pelts, not so much anymore. have a wonderful new year. >> blankets. >> those -- iconic blankets and towels, thank you very much. >> they're fantastic. >> head to break. i have a trivia question for you. overall retail stocks are up this quarter. can you name the single best performing retailer this quarter. bank of america, is on baron's list of ten stocks for 2015. do our traders share baron's enthee enenthusiasm. we will play bull's eye or bull something when the "halftime" report comes right back. i know i have an 810 fico score, thanks to the tools and help on experian.com. and your big idea is hot dogs shaped like hamburgers? nope. hamburgers shaped like hot dogs. that's not really in our wheelhouse... you don't put it in a wheelhouse. you put it in your mouth. get your credit swagger on. become a member of experian credit tracker
manitowoc. called yet another audible before the break and asked our smart guys here which retailer was the best performer of all of them this quarter. the answer, guys, rite aid. >> wow. >> up 58% this quarter. it is closely trailed by staples. so two names may. baron's announcing its ten favorite stocks for 2015. but do our traders think these calls hit the bull's eye or something else? first up, is general motors. who wants to tackle this one? >> i'm staying away.
>> i don't love ts this call. i think -- i get what they're saying, they see earnings going up a lot. now all these one-time items like recalls and closing a plant in germany and problems in this country and that country, so they say all right, earnings will explode now that alls these things are done. the thing with gm it never ends. they're always extraordinary items. always another charge. for that reason, i'm out. >> there's always a pontiac astech. >> you may see focus on subprime auto financing which has ballooned and potentially hazardous for people that went in there. they're taking credits that housing industry didn't take and no residual value. so i'm not a fan of gm. >> bank of america, you will not give a stock recommendation but we talked at a package, b of a always on one of yahoo!'s search lists. people love to talk about this stock. >> widely owned but i don't think a lot of people think it has a lot of juice to it. as a stock. which i think is okay.
it could perform reasonably well. a call on the u.s. economy. probably where long rates are going. one thing nobody is talking about is the potential maybe down the road for some financial m&a. b of a would be a buyer not a seller but that's interesting we have record m&a without big financials. >> we've seen a lot of activity in my kron all year long. the stock has performed. it's one of the top performing tech stocks. i still like it into next year and people buying a ton of in the money calls in this one. they're looking for a short-term pop here. >> they like mu and rcl, royal caribbean. >> yeah. i've been looking at trading at its highs and oil is a huge component as well as an improving economy. it's not one of my top picks. i would prefer to be in the airlines, because everything that's going on there, capacity is still contracting so much smarter at it but i see nothing wrong with the stock. i don't know if it can be a top ten performer next year again.
>> rcl, i looked at all the names, technically speaking rcl has the best chart, looks better than all the others. i agree with steve, this thing is already at its highs, done a heck of a lot, i think they've capitalized on the problems at carnival which seems like it's a disaster a month over the last couple years but how much more gas is left in that tank? i'm not so sure. >> never cruised. booked a cruise for my parents and family, i won't say what line. josh brown, are a lot of people boarding the ship in miami? does it look full. >> that looks like an inner tube, brian. >> gilead sciences. anybody want to tackle this bad boy. >> i've been involved in it all year long because of how i've traded it. i booked a loss in the equity but immediately bought the calls so look, i'm pretty worried about what's happening with pricing. but i still think it's got some
legs under it. >> you do. >> morgan stanley upgraded it today. >> hell of a runner. >> but take a look -- >> lot of controversy over its $88,000 price tag by the way. >> it's about 5% of their hit to patients, so there are more legs here. the stock is not done. huge market cap about $100 billion, but look, it's incredibly cheap for the growth it has with competitors coming? >> thank you very much. walk through half of baron's list. coming up we continue to monitor the drop in oil and some of the energy names that are on the move. one fund manager who tracks insider buying and selling is seeing a lot of bullish activity on energy stocks. follow maybe the exec's lead into that trade? we'll talk about it next on the halftime report. the halftime report with scott wapner, is the place for market moving interviews. >> when you see large currency moves and large price moves in a
commodity like oil, you have to be worried. >> real money. >> what makes things cheap is uncertainty. >> real debate. >> my bet you should buy every canadian oil stock there is. >> the most profitable hour of the trading day. >> do you think dick cos ste lo will leave that job. >> we think there's a good chance he's not there in a year. ♪ music ...the getaway vehicle! for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
russell 2,000 hitting record highs. small cap names that have had big names this year. does the run continue in 2015. why the new year may be the year when home prices begin to weaken and why that might not be such a bad thing for the u.s. housing market. and forget uber this company is nows most valuable tech start-up in the world. and you probably haven't heard of it. we'll take you inside. more "fast halftime report" in two minutes. we'll see you at 1:00 on "power." you know "hidden things..." ok, why's that? no hidden fees, from the bank where no branches equals great rates.
let's go now to the market flash desk to for a look at the energy movers with dom chu. >> five-year low for crude oil isn't stopping a nice rebound in bouncing off recent lows, arch coal all up strongly as crude oil moved higher this morning. those stocks are holding some of those gains even as oil prices move to the down side this afternoon. also surging are exploration and production companies. >> thank you very much. why don't we trade this? one of the worst stocks, i think the worst stock in the s&p 500 this year. >> there is a number of them that i will be buying as part of the portfolio challenge next year. in a few days i will be getting into energy names.
>> i own atlas which cooperman talked me into. phenomenal valuation. >> are you talking about atlas air cargo? >> atlas energy. i also own oasis. they are both small positions. it is only your timing when energy rebounds. it is not a question of do they go down before they go up. >> i agree. i have been to the bakkan. it is not how much oil goes down but how long it stays here. the leverage of the companies and maybe what their bank loans and debt have on the price of oil. >> i stay away from the service companies because their leverage they are going to get destroyed. >> i was out there and one guy told me i'm asking for 25% to 50% cost cuts from every service provider. i said no way. he said i'm getting them.
>> that's no fun for that sector. look, i like the larger cap names. i yus don't want to be a part of something that is inflicting more and more pain. i think days where they bounce and rip, those are opportunities to get out of some if you haven't already. i would err on the side of quality and would not be looking to call a turn in that trend. as that begins it becomes like a vicious cycle and i think it takes time to work itself through the system. >> thank you very much. portfolio manager david miller's fund focuses on this. so far it has paid off. his fund up more than 10% this year. co founder and senior portfolio manager of catalyst capital and joins us with a few of the
stocks landing on his radar. welcome to the halftime report. what companies especially in energy are seeing meaningful insider buying? >> we are seeing compelling situations in companies like chesapeake energy, some of the companies where they are very well positioned in light of lower oil prices to make good money in this environment. >> does it look like aggressive buying? >> it is very aggressive, unusual buying. in chesapeake you have over 11 million buying. similarly, bbg, they have oil hedged at $90 a barrel for the year going in and out. there were $295 million in cash. the ceo, cfo buying big weigh in to that. tide water oil services firm focus on boats and offshore rigs. they have heavy buying into new
price lows, about six executives buying all at the same time. >> i must add some of the insiders have not timed it right. some have gone under by buying companies going down. >> cobalt sees huge insider selling at the moment. they are pre-production oil and gas company. they have been hit by a wells notice. that will do it. they also are preproduction. when you are not even having oil coming out of the wells and sought to do cap backs it is not a very attractive business at that point. >> david, we will wrap it up there. short and sweet but you got names for us. we do appreciate that. we are watching those names. coming up, the under the radar steock stories that you might be missing but our traders are not. we'll be right back. stion abou. stion abou. but your erectile dysfunction - that could be a question of blood flow.
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three things that traders are watching that you probably don't have the time to because you have your job and we have ours. this is why we are here. >> there has been huge insider buying and talk about edging which is a great point. they are hedged out until '16. so while they are cutting costs. it sets up as a great story. i don't know if the next move is 1.75. >> even with crude oil down 2% right now you take a look at noble. take a look at range resources, rrc. both stocks are up and the volume is heavy. >> the uk stock market ewu. very under owned. maybe for good reasons. steve mentioned too many financials and energy stocks. it has a similar story to the u.s. but much cheaper. >> i think mike brings up an interesting point. it is a market that we don't
talk about very often. we tend to talk about core europe as opposed to other ways to invest on the continent and off. >> let's go around the horn and get final trades. josh, you are up now. why don't we start with you? >> we started off talking about the russell. >> dhr, unusual call activity. i bought that name today. >> i'm still short ocwan. bill has a lot of stock, not involved in any of the companies. i think it will sell. if you look at what they agreed to it will open your eyes. this story is just done, done, done. >> michael san thole. >> the ewu, i think that story is a decent one into 2015. central banks looking to raise rates because the economy is okay. i think it could follow that path. >> i am going to put you on the spot.
we will talk about predictions. does russia default in 2015? >> no. >> i think they will. >> real pleasure. we had a rough start but recovered nicely. >> yes. >> we are still up for you in a bathing suit bet. "power lunch" begins right now. "halftime" is over. "power lunch" and the second half of the trading day start now. the dow going for the eighth straight day of gains. the s&p 500 and the nasdaq on track for the eighth straight water of gains. and the nasdaq is within 5% of its all-time record tech bubble close. we have the 2015 play book. the health of the american housing market. could 2015 be the start of the negative price dip. might that be a good thing. forget uber. this company is the most valuable tech stp