tv On the Money CNBC January 4, 2015 7:30pm-8:01pm EST
hi, everyone, welcome to "on the money." i'm becky quick. will the markets climb in 2015, or is a cooldown ahead? what the new year will bring your pocketbook and portfolio. more than 3 million americans just got a raise. minimum wage was hired, how does it impact workers in all stages? and keeping the music alive, turning a profit, as well. and new year, new you. financial resolutions you can and should keep. "on the money" starts right now. this is "on the money," your money, your life, your future. now, becky quick.
>> here's a look at what's making news as we head into a new week "on the money." investors cheered solid gains for the year, despite a small selloff on 2014's final trading day, stocks actually ended a strong year at close to record levels. the dow closed in positive territory for the sixth consecutive year, ending 2014 up by more than 7.5%. that is the longest streak since a nine-year run from 1991 to 1999. and the s&p 500 ended the year up more than 11%. that is three straight years of double digit gains. growth was led by improved consumer confidence, more hiring, and higher corporate earnings, and markets were mixed on the first trading day of the new year. oil continues to be a big story, dropping by more than 50% over the last six months, ending its worst year since 2008. excess supply blamed in part for the massive price drop, also some weakness in demand. and it was the other black gold, coffee, that ended 2014 as the top performing commodity.
coffee jolted markets by gaining more than 50% on the year. so we finish up a busy 2014 coming off the sixth straight year of market gains. for a look at how a stronger market impacts you, we're joined right now by mike holland, chairman of holland and company, also michael farr, and gentlemen, thank you both for being here today. mike, why don't we start off taking a look back at what happened in 2014. do you think that this is the type of thing the trend can continue with us continuing to go higher, or do you start to get worried after six years of gains for the dow? >> whenever you have this long a period of higher prices, you always begin to get cautious, at least an emotion, but the reality is, the facts are still behind this thing with respect to both the federal reserve and the economy. so the federal reserve has been joined by all the other central banks of note. the economies across the globe are getting a little bit better or a little bit less worse, if you will, so for the coming year it looks like we may have more of the same, but having said
that, yes, we get cautious. i've raised a little cash. >> you have. >> sure, at the end of the year. >> is that something waiting for a pullback, a dip? >> it's humility. over the years when i've had this much good luck, it may not continue. >> all right, michael, how about you? >> only two types of people in our business, becky, those who have been humbled and those who are about to be. so i'm totally with mike holland. you know, we've had a tremendous run. we had 53 new highs on the s&p 500 in 2014, and that followed returns of 2013 that were up 32%. so if the rule is to buy low and sell high, this ain't low, so i'm with mike. you've got to be cautious, but you've got to stay in, because you're never going to time your buys and sells right. >> let me ask, where do you think investors are now, are they in on this thing, thinking holy cow, it's time to get in, where do they stand? >> it's a great question, becky. we talked a year ago about this,
it's still the same. we lost a generation of investors in 2008. a combination of the dot com implosion and then 2008. people said this market is great, i'm never in it again, they are gone. some people now are beginning to get antsy to get in, 1% and 2% interest rates are keeping people from putting a lot of money, they are interested in something else, but i think we still have a very large group of cynics out there. >> michael, let me ask you, mike already hinted at this, the federal reserve out there, how does that change the scenario and will the stock market be able to handle higher rates? >> that's probably the biggest question for 2015, becky, will we will able to higher the rates if the fed actually doesn't blink and actually does what they say they are going to do? when we had our almost 10% decline in october, jim bullard came out and said we need to do
more and stocks went a lot higher. warren buffett said americans hate stocks when they are cheap and love them when they are expensive. in 2009 i tell people they should be buying stocks and they looked at me like i was out of my mind. now they want to buy stocks, so i think probably the greatest risk for 2015 is that sense of complacency and that overall feeling that all is well and you can only make money in the stock market. mike holland and i will tell you it's plenty easy to lose money in this business. >> let me ask you both, a year ago we would have been sitting around and very few people would have predicted two things that happened this year, one the sharp decline in oil prices, the other is the incredibly low yield you're still getting on the ten-year note. you look at both of those things, do they last, what changes, what's your prediction for next year? mike, we'll start with you. >> a year ago, 3% ten-year treasuries i only know two people talking about lower yields on the treasuries in the coming year. >> i can think of one.
>> i think that reality is stable interest rates for most of the year because of the fed. i think that we are going to end up with a year where we're going to have some increase in price of oil, but not by a lot, because the supply and demand imbalance, michael will tell you, it's not going to go away. >> michael, what do you think? >> oil prices are going lower, and you don't want to try to catch that falling knife. you have to remember 2008 in the second quarter, oil went up 47.5% in, like, 84 days. everybody said it was going to go a lot higher, it was probably the time to sell. oil has dropped 45%. i don't know if you should buy it right here, but you should sure be looking at it. anything that drops 45% you start to look at and think about buying, but i'm with mike holland in that you have to be defensive when markets have moved this high, this fast
without any kind of significant pullback. so it's a time to play defense, it's not a time to go for that last 25 cents that you can possibly make out there, it's not going to be worth it when this thing starts heading south, and it always heads south sooner or later. >> gentlemen, thank you both for joining us today. it's great talking to you. >> happy new year. >> happy new year. >> you, too. up next, the new year brought in a higher minimum wage in 21 states. will the rest of the economy feel the boost or feel the pain? we'll work it out. and later, bringing the music back. the latin record label rescued from the dust by the digital revolution will make you feel like dancing. right now as we head to a break, look how the stock market ended the week.
more than 3 million americans just got a raise in the new year. that's because minimum wage increases in 21 states went into effect on january 1st. could more states make that same move, or will congress increase the minimum wage nationally? jared bernstein is a senior fellow at the center on budget and policy priorities. dan mitchell is senior fellow at the cato institute. thank you both for being with us today. i get the sense that you two disagree with each other pretty wholeheartedly on this issue, so let me ask each of you to make your case. jared, you go first. why do you think this is a good thing? >> well, first, hello to you and dan. >> you, too. >> the reason is because this is a simple policy that has its intended effect. one of the problems we've had as i think you know, we've talked about this before, is that while the economy has been expanding and growing, very little of that growth has reached workers in the bottom half of the pay scale, so increasing the wage
floor gives them a little bit of a boost. you mention 3 million workers, that's, what, less than 2% of the labor force. it's worked well, which is why so many states are embracing the change. >> dan, it's been around for 75 years, that federal minimum wage. why do you think it's not effective? >> well, first, happy new year, although i'm going to have an unhappy reaction to states increasing the minimum wages because some people are going to be thrown out of work. it's the simple reality that if a low skilled employee doesn't have the work skills that justify a wage at "x," then guess what, if the minimum wage is "x," they are not going to be hired. they are going to be let go. >> jared, let's respond to that, the congressional budget office has said they think about 500,000 people will be put out to work by this. how do you respond? >> let's be very clear. i take that point and i think you and dan both have a good substantiative point there, but you're leaving out a key number. the congressional budget also said that 24.5 million low wage
workers would get a raise. i'm not saying that nobody ever gets hurt by a minimum wage increase. there's no perfect policy, but here's a policy, 49-1 benefits according to the congressional budget office, the nonpartisan arbiter of these things. >> i'll agree with jared on one point, i would much rather have states make these decisions than the central government in washington. maybe jared and i in the spirit of the new year can agree that we should get rid of a minimum wage lot in washington and let the 50 states decide what's the best policy. i'll still argue that government shouldn't be interfering with the right of consenting adults to sign labor contracts. >> i'll meet you at least halfway, which is i agree that this movement towards states setting their own minimum wage, even some cities, makes sense in part because price differences are really quite dramatic across the country. >> the cost of living is very different. >> very different in seattle
than, say, mississippi, however, you do need a federal floor. yes, i do like the state variation, but i also think we need a higher federal level, as does the president, so that the states don't get too far apart from the federal floor. >> jared's idea of meeting me halfway is he gets 95% of the cake and i get 5%. >> dan, hold on a second. how do you fix it if you don't raise minimum wage, you are talking about a lot more inequality out there. how do you fix it if you don't raise minimum wage? >> i think we need fast economic growth. we need the kind of policies we had in the '80s and '90s. obviously, not all policies moved in the right direction, but when on net government was becoming less of a burden on the private sector, we had fast economic growth, we had lots of job creation, and in many, many states and cities around the country in the '80s and '90s the entry level wage was higher than the minimum wage. that's a great result that jared
and i would both be happy about. >> gentlemen, i hate to cut you both off, we are out of time, but fortunately 2015 is still young. we'll have both of you back to talk about it again. thank you for your time today. up next, "on the money" with a comeback you wouldn't expect. the record label that had its greatest hits in the 1970s finding new life today. and if you dread making new year's resolutions but want to change your financial life for the better, we'll tell you how to make a commitment to reach your financial goals in 2015.
that's jazz, one of the staple of latin stars in the 1960s and 1970s, once known as the motown of salsa, the record went dormant. now in its 50th year, fania is an unlikely survivor of the digital resolution and its classic tracks are being remixed for a new consumer. ♪ >> we now have the opportunity to take joe's remixes again back out to the world. >> music of the old, music of the masters, and worldwide
audiences. at home we listen to all kinds of music. it was the heartbeat. >> we're getting ready to listen to a track by tito ramos, who was one of our artists back in the '70s. what we're going to hear originally is exactly what they recorded 40 years ago. ♪ >> vocals first. ♪ >> tracks that have groups of people. >> you can bring in the bass. now you can hear my brother playing. he's doing that now live. there's a remix. ♪ >> i'm a servant to the label and the incredible artists that created this music. >> perfect example of taking the best of the past with the best of today to create something
new. that's what we're doing here. >> my job is simple, give a little spice, bring it out to the world, and let them rediscover the true magic, the true masters of the music, because this is dance your ass music anyway. joining me right now, michael rucker, who owns the fania label and catalog. michael, thank you so much for being here. >> thank you, becky, thanks for having me. >> for those who don't know, fania, what was it, what did it mean to culture? >> it really was the part of the epicenter of new york, latinos coming to new york for the first time from dominican republic, puerto rico, cuba, it became their home, the basis of who they are, what they stood for, and how they presented themselves, not only here in new york, but around the world. >> the label, though, was basically dead. in fact, a lot of these collections were literally gathering dust. we have some here in front of us, how did you rediscover it? what happened? >> you know, we always knew the
value of this catalog and these artists, and so we searched for the opportunity to do the acquisition in the first place, and then we were able to do it, but at the time we did the acquisition, they told us that there were no recording tapes left. >> what? did they not know? >> they didn't know. i don't know if they were telling the truth or not, but what we found out later is there was a receipt for a storage unit up in the hudson valley, so we sent someone to go check out that storage unit, and here's where we found the original recording tapes, many of them. >> did you feel like a treasure hunter at that point? >> it was amazing and still is today. every time i look at them and i say, oh, my god, this is -- and we have over 4,000 of them. >> what's the most important commodity when it comes to the music industry? is it the recordings, how do you do this in today's digital age? >> people -- people enjoy the experience, and what they forget is that it's an experience, and it's a feeling, okay, and then it becomes a memory.
so what you have here are lifetime of memories for many people and a future lifetime of memories of those still to come. >> you know, fania went from nothing to being profitable in 2013. how do you do that in today's digital age? >> well, first and foremost, we went digital, which was a big, big step in that time. most labels were still producing physical product, so we made the concerted effort to say, no, we're going to go and focus on the digital and it was the best thing that ever happened to us, because all of a sudden the world became our market as opposed to one part of the united states being our market. >> when you say the world, you're talking china, you're talking -- >> japan, europe, south america, asia. i was in croatia last summer and on a friday night in the town square they were dancing salsa, which was amazing. we had d.j.s that are remixing and producing this music today for a younger audience in the clubs. >> you really don't have to worry about being lost in
translation. >> we don't have to worry about being lost in translation. what we do always worry about and want to make sure is, are we making them dance? >> well, for that, i would say, yes. can't hear that stuff without automatically feeling a little movement going. michael, thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you for having me. up next "on the money," a look at the news for the week ahead. and making plans to get financially fit in the new year can really pay off. turn those resolutions into reality for the next 12 months and beyond.
for more on our show and our guests, you can go to our website, and you can follow us on twitter. here are the stories coming up that may impact your money this week. on monday we'll get december auto sales. on tuesday, factory order figures come out for the month of november. on wednesday, the international trade report for november is out. also on wednesday, the fed releases the minutes from its last meeting. and it is one for the money, two for the show, elvis presley would have turned 80 on thursday. one more birthday for you, friday marks the 64th anniversary of the united nations opening in new york city. and on friday, the department of labor releases the unemployment rate for december. it's the start of the new year, and this year we highlight how to make paying yourself first a commitment you will keep all year long, both in bull and bear markets. sharon epperson joins us right now to talk about your money, your future in 2015. sharon, where do we start? >> well, you have to start by
keeping track of your spending. that's the first place to start. you want to know what's going in and what's going out in terms of your finances. you have to do it. you have to figure out. that's how you figure out what costs to cut, how to pay down debt, how to save more. i want people to start small. don't think you have to save a ton right at the beginning. small, consistent steps, that is really the key. >> something you're not going to maybe miss every week, something that automatically goes aside. >> exactly. that's why it's so important to create a budget, that's a resolution you have to have right off the top, create a budget, stick to it, that way you know how much you can afford to save every month. the other thing you need to think about is, as you're figuring out how much you're going to be able to save, lower discretionary spending. just came out of the holiday season, probably bought a lot of presents, everyone's happy, now time to cut back, figure what you can cut down and start to build that emergency fund that's so important, because we don't know what's going to happen in this year or future years. you want to make sure you have an emergency fund.
putting two quarters away every day, 50 cents a day, you'll have nearly $200 by the end of the year. >> just gotten through the holidays, parties that come with it, but now the hangovers and credit card debt we racked up. how do you deal with that and get through it? >> again, look at what you owe, the most expensive debt you owe, that's the debt with the highest interest rate and try to pay that down first. see if you can lower the interest rate, see if you can negotiate with the lender, the creditor, and see if they can lower that rate just a little bit. that could help. sometimes they will if you call them up and talk about it. if you're paying on time, that's another way to do it. you have to do your homework here and figure out what the low interest cards are that you may want to go for, but there are websites to help you out with that. >> you mention saving for a rainy day fund, we do that but also for retirement. how do you tackle that? >> saving for the long-term is key, just automate it. easiest way to do it is put it away and not think about it. if you have a 401(k) plan or
employer-sponsored retirement plan, that's a great way to do it. save more this year, you can save $18,000, that's $500 higher than you could have saved last year and save an extra $6,000 if you're over 50. again, $24,000 if you're 50 or older, that's a lot of money to put away for retirement. take advantage of the catch-up contributions and contribute to an ira, as well, traditional or roth ira. that can be a great way to save. >> sharon, thank you. >> sure. that's the show for today, i'm becky quick. thank you so much for joining me. each week we're here, "on the money." have a great one and see you next weekend. we needed 30 new hires for our call center. i'm spending too much time hiring and not enough time in my kitchen. [ female announcer ] need to hire fast? go to ziprecruiter.com and post your job to over 30 of the web's leading job boards with a single click; then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. you put up one post and the next day you have all these candidates.
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