Skip to main content

tv   Mad Money  CNBC  January 26, 2015 6:00pm-7:01pm EST

6:00 pm
ike it. >> great job by walgreen's boot alliance. >> great job by you. >> thanks guys. get home safe. catch my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey i'm cramer. welcome to mad money, welcome to cramerica. i'm just trying to make you a little bit of money here. my job isn't just to entertain but put it in context. tweet me at jim cramer. is the market healthy or is it sick? does it have a pulse, or is it just lurching back and forth like a zombie?
6:01 pm
you know what, i think this take is healthy as evidence by our ability to rally from an early morning deficit that didn't used to happen with the dow rising 6 points and nasdaq climbing .29%. why is it a sign of health? let me show you how it's done. here's the eight positive signs that a market is is healthy enough to invest your hard earned capital in. first, can we shrug off the every day overseas worries? yesterday when the greek's elect elected a government we were ready for the s&p futures to open down and when russia was racheting up tensions in ukraine we knew things would be awful. they indicated they would open down a half a percent. however by the time we opened this morning the market had
6:02 pm
reversed it's judgment. investors were willing to rethink whether the greek election was relevant to us. might have been good for us because it could force the powers that be in europe namely the germans to recognize that too much austerity has consequences. and while the majority party campaign on the need to end the austerity in greece it teamed up with with an extremist right wing government. that kind of inclusion of an extremist into a central government is what they fear. they elect a far right government resulting in social unrest. think france. so it looks like investors calculated the greek election to be positive because it makes the central banker's work even harder to get economies on the continent to grow faster so therefore we're willing to buy the weakness. a healthy market shrugs off foreign negatives. second sign of health when an analyst downgrades a stock and
6:03 pm
it doesn't even seem to matter. today we had to downgrade from dollar general to an outright sell. we had two downgrades of her she last week. it still trades off it's 52 week high. you want to stick around for that analysis. it's really important. the oils have been downgraded endlessly but more downgrades today. what happens? they hang in there and they don't seem to get hammered anymore. third the market has very little memory for the bad. on friday we got a hideous earnings report from mcdonald's. it was just terrible. they have a very lackadaisical sense of urgency which does seem to fit the bill. so the stock takes a hit for certain. but then it bounces right back. it's almost where it was before the horrendous quarter. it sure seems to be headed there. same with wells fargo. remember how horrible that quarter was supposed to be? the stock is about to take out the level where it was when
6:04 pm
wells gave you the miserable report. turns out to be another buying opportunity for this great american bank. sometimes this reaction occurs even the same day. norfolk southern reported a quarter not as good as union pacifics last week which was a thing of beauty. the stock looked down at the open as it should have been but then it reversed and went higher anyway. why? the market is desperate for america first names. companies that do business here and have less foreign risk. they fit it perfectly. there was no rail line to europe. i don't know if the disk drive company can bounce back from its negative comments about disk drive promising when it reported it's am. but the stocks are cheap and if you wait a few days people forgot what went wrong. of course not all will be forgiven. united parcel was down for a second day because it stunk up the joint reporting a quarter that was marred by bad logistics. still i think the pile on and
6:05 pm
second day might give you an entry point tomorrow and microsoft is a resounding negative and really horrible and the commercial business was light but how long can that high quality stock be kept down? sure i know goes down 3%. maybe goes down to 5% but that could be an opportunity that my charitable trust has been waiting for trying to get big. 4th this market loves, loves, loves supply. meaning underwritings. when you have a terrible market a company can offer stock and the print, the price it's offered at is immediately violated as the stock breaks the print or goes below where the deal came and anybody that bought it got crushed but last week we got a really seminole sign. got an offering from total cramer fav, bmrn. it was 8.5 million shares. requested $93.25 and now the stock rallied to $99 and change. a love of supply. not only that but all bio tech
6:06 pm
is worried. isis pharma climbed another buck. it's doing well. biogen rallied on hope for its antialzheimer's compound. they have great earnings. but then why not? they trade on drug approvals too. fifth sign of health mergers and acquisitions which had gotten off the radar screen in 2015. this morning, that's a packaging rival we liked a lot on mad money for $9.2 million. two major competitors in the packing business notorious for dogfighting merge. that could lead to a rationalization of the whole industry. do you know what i suggest you do? buy a little international paper before it reports wednesday and then buy the rest after. the news is that good for this third competitor. meanwhile energy transfer partners made a deal to acquire
6:07 pm
regency energy. this is the second company to make a deal in this space in a week. last week's kinder morgan purchase. both are taking advantage of the stresses in the system. etp got hammered off the deal but you know what after tomorrow when it probably gets hammered again i think it's going to reflect descent value and then access capital holdings gets together. it takes out capacity. you won't be able to do that if you're trying to get insurance anymore. you get multi-day moves. netflix for example is now up an astounding 100 points from where it reported a terrific number just last week. a multi-day move higher is a terrific sign of a healthy tape as we call it. 7th, we're getting terrific pen action.
6:08 pm
by one company a sector. even if the others haven't reported anything to write home about. this morning d.r. horton delivered a really beautiful number. and more important though it also took len and they gave you a rare down beat forecast. horton can turn around the fortune of a company that told you things might not be that good. finally, the 8th sign it's alive and well i took heat recommending people clammer for robost. can't you read a balance sheet? don't you know they're getting their butt kicked by google. how can you recommend the stock of a company that's going to lose money. they were coming down on me. my only regret is not being even more bullish than i was because box turned out to be a total home run. that's is what happens in a real good stock market. wait until you hear what i have to say about shake shack later
6:09 pm
in the show. here's the bottom line. at one point last night things looked pretty dyer but by the time we open the worries were gone and the opportunities were right. that's the definition of a bountiful tape and it's one that gives you a chance to get in before it runs away from you. >> all aboard. >> steve in florida, steve. >> caller: yeah hi jim, would cablevision along with the existing price wars how do you see this sitting for verizon and at&t? >> i think -- first of all, this is a great question because you know i have been recommending verizon since the start of the show and i like that yield of 4.6% but this cuts off the upside. people will be worried that the competition is too great. have to tell you get that dividend but don't expect a lot of upside because of the competitors. let's go to al in new york. al. >> caller: hey, jim, big booyah
6:10 pm
to you. my question is about disney. i wanted to add but i wasn't sure if i should do that before earnings or wait and see how they report the quarter. >> well i think you should wait and i'll tell you why. the stock has a history of going down after it's had big runs like it had -- it has a history of going down and that's when the pull the trigger. let's be patient. maybe they give us another chance to get in disney at a discount. jerry in florida. it's so nice. i hate it here. jerry. >> caller: hi, jim. i bought 100 shares of american airlines at 38. would you advise me to sell now and take the profit or do you see a higher price target. >> it did go to 52 week high today and i'm always of the mind set. there's two different disciplines going on here. i think american is going to have a terrific year. on the other hand you're up so much on that. you know what you do in those cases? take a quarter off. people say jim you like a.l.
6:11 pm
the discipline of not losing money is incredibly important. i like to make money. do some trimming. all we're doing is talking to people in places better than where we are. renee in florida, renee. >> caller: hi jim. >> how are you? >> caller: i'm all right. i used to be a fan of nuclear power because it's so much cleaner and internationally they have always been more accepting. like the deal just made with india but since the price of oil and natural gas has become so low, and the fear from the fukushima disaster, i was wondering what your outlook is on nuclear power in the united states and specifically my stock. >> i think nuclear power is dead. it's not going to happen. however i think that exelon trades like a buy. only yields 3.3%. it's had a remarkable run. particularly after it cut the dividend. people liked it. i'm not a buyer at 3.3% because
6:12 pm
if i'm going to buy a company with 3.3% yield i'm going to end up wanting to buy con end which had a remarkable run and better yield than exelon and is a better company. all right. this one was a total home run. one that gives you plenty of opportunity. now "mad money" tonight, bring on the burgers i say. living culinary legend danny myer has a portfolio of restaurants packed with stars but should you reserve his newest offering on wall street? i'm biting into the shake shack ipo. then chocolate wars. battle over iconic candy company hershey. maybe it's time to give the stock a kiss. plus kimberly-clark is probably in your home. it's stock is stumbling badly after missing the quarter. time to buy? or time to stay away? why don't you stick with cramer? >> don't miss a second of "mad
6:13 pm
money" follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question tweet cramer, #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to mad or call 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to
6:14 pm
6:15 pm
6:16 pm
last week i told you to try to get on that box ipo. sure enough it exploded higher. immediately after it became public. this week i have another big ipo i think you should call your broker to get a piece of although it won't be that easy. it won't be like box. i'm talking about shake shack which becomes public later this week under the symbol shhk. this will be another deal that instantly goes to a premium once it starts trading. maybe with the letter somebody isn't around you grab some of their stock. as regular mad money viewers know we have been big fans of danny myer. we told you that setting the table, his story about how to be hospitable to guests may be among the best business books ever written. it's still in print. i urge you to get it and
6:17 pm
remember the danny myer hospitality index created by the man himself to highlight companies with the hospitality quotient he snows stock. it's rallied 433% since february 2009. that's better than the s&p performance performance. we never had a chance to invest publicly in one of his own concepts. we just had the pleasure of eating at them. i was supposed to go to one today but the storm messed up my plans. it's the cooler smarter, more delicious and upscale burger joint. only has 36 locations. shake shack believes it can open 450 stores in the u.s. alone which means the company could have a truly phenomenal growth proapologetic toir projection
6:18 pm
projection. i think that's conservative. relatively young super fast growing restaurant chains have been well received by the ipo market of late. consider for instance the habit restaurants. that's another burger chain which is roughly 100 locations. it was 120% on the first day of trading when it became public. you made a fortune. similar to zoe's kitchen. public last april. spiked 65% on the first day of trading. since rallied another 45%. not bad. if shake shack is like these deals and i think it will be a better deal then it's lucky right out of the game especially since the 14 to $16 price range which would give the company a valuation of 533 million. it's going to be far more highly valued than that but it's not just the small cap restaurant ipos have given you a first day pop. we also know with the exception of mcdonald's the burger industry has been very strong of
6:19 pm
late with premium burger chains out performing the broader category. basically shakeshack is the polar opposite of mcdonald's. but this one is all natural. it's hormone and antibiotic free. it's well designed stores and friendly committed workers which is exactly what you expect from a danny myer vehicle. my sister and i found ourselves down in the dumps in philly. we couldn't figure out how to treat ourselves until weshe said let's go to shake shack. good call. shake shack has some of the best numbers of any restaurant chain out there. in 2013 it's average unit volumes came in at $5 million. that's an astounding number. that's more than twice the 2.2 million chipotle demonstrates. they have an astounding 65%
6:20 pm
meaning the payback period for opening a new restaurant is less than two years and that dwarfs the habit restaurant which is more than doubled on its first day of trading. this is much better than habit plus it's expanding overseas. opening up lots of international franchise locations. over the past two years all of the company's new international stores they have been franchises where as all but two of the domestic openings have been company opened. it's a two prong strategy. they use franchises overseas to get more growth with less risk but they want to fully own most of the locations in the united states so they own all the upside in the more predictable domestic market. there's two areas where they lag the competition with it's margins and same store sales. that's what's disappointing here. the company's earnings before interest and taxes margin of just 4.9%. chipotle has 16.8%. the reason for the deficit is
6:21 pm
half of the company owned store versus been open within the past year and they have yet to reach maturity. based on the actual unit economics i wouldn't be surprised if over the long-term their margins are able to meet or even exceed chipotle's. that would represent a ton of improvement. in it's most recent quarter shake shack had a gain of 1.2%. you would think that number would be much higher right? but here's the thing, shake shack doesn't include restaurants unless they have been open for 24 months or longer. that means this isn't really an apples to apples comparison with other chains. companies once the restaurant has been open for 12 months and given that the growth is explosive 24 months ago they didn't even have that many locations at all. however this company is brilliant at opening stores in high density, high traffic locations. that includes the seven manhattan restaurants with one in the theater district and the
6:22 pm
mall location in dubai. we will continue to not only fill an existing market such as new york philadelphia washington, atlanta, south florida to leverage optional effectiveness but also enter new markets such as austin where we have signed leases. we currently have only 63 shacks around the world we have identified many attractive markets for the shake shack experience and remember they're doing all of this with the danny myer touch. i remember the first one on madison square. this is an incredible story. the real upside here is the about for growth. they plan to triple over the next five years. they could expand to 63 locations to nearly 190. in 2015 they plan to open 10 more stores. 40% unit growth. some of the fastest in the industry. how do you value a stock like shake shack? that's what we're trying to key. given that the company is plowing all of it's profits back through the business the current
6:23 pm
earnings don't tell you that much. how about the sales? at the midpoint of the price range it would trade at 3.4 times forward sales which would make it more expensive than a stock like zoe's kitchen. still for me you have to judge a stock lake shake shack based on how much money it could make several years down the road. remember what we call that? we call that the out years and i have to believe the earnings power four or five years from now could be enormous and that's why we have to pay up. so here's the bottom line. your broker's probably not going to be there because of the storm. try it anyway. you want to get a piece of the shack. it's energied to give you a big pop right out of the gate. but if you can't get in on the actual ipo i'm giving you only a 20 dollar leeway here. i don't want you to trade it but 20. otherwise we'll say we missed it. that's all right. given the volatile nature of this market. if you can't get a piece of the ipo wait for broad based market
6:24 pm
wide pull back to give you a sbr entry point and in the meantime eat one of these delicious burgers. much more mad money ahead including the battle heating up over hershey's. should you stay away or could it coat your portfolio. then the company buying kleenex is in the red after a disappointing quarter. i have the ceo. plus what you need to know before diving into another domestic oil or gas stock. you have to stay with cramer.
6:25 pm
6:26 pm
6:27 pm
>> last friday we got a $2 pull back as hershey was hit the second time in a week. it's still $2 off it's highs. america's largest chocolate maker and one of the world's biggest candy companies is the sight of a massive shoot out. a tag team death match between the bulls and the bears. a week and a half ago wells fargo upgraded hershey in a rerating of the whole staples group. jpmorgan downgraded it and then on friday it got hit with a second downgrade.
6:28 pm
taking it from a buy to a hold. as regular viewers know this kind of an analyst face-off is actually a good thing because it helps us clarify the bullish and bearish positions hershey has so we can do a better job of figuring out where we stand on the stock. honestly i'm like addicted to the stuff. i'm a fan of hershey's kisses and twizzlers. there isn't anything i don't eat of theirs but while these are iconic candy brands all of which i stock up on and believe me i bought all the twizzlers in the store for the storm, how do we feel about the stock at these levels? well when you have two bearish analysts and bullish analysts contradicting each other, do you
6:29 pm
know what that is an opportunity to go through the facts. come up with your own thesis which is why we're having our own mad max beyond thunder dome style analyst cage match between the bulls and the wears to see which side is right about it. if you can't tell it's in the mid you haven't watched the show long enough. let's start with the upside down bear case. this is spear headed by jp morgan. the big retraiting of the package food group is hershey has run up too much where it's fairly valued without much room for upside. in fact the jpmorgan analyst released a positive note on hershey not long ago but given that the stock rallied 15% at the beginning of november at the
6:30 pm
time of the downgrade last wednesday, the best performance in the package food group they think it's time for you to ring the register. that's a good thought. no one ever got hurt taking a profit. how about the bank note? that was more come prehensive. it seems clear that they're coming from a similar place. her hershey trading at 25%. these analysts are ready to declare victory and walk away. hershey the stock is too good for its own good. but while valuation is a big part of the equation in the downgrades it's not the whole story. they view hershey as a high quality company but also see a number of fundamental issues that make them concerned and when i read this i was concerned too. for example, hershey announced plans to expand into a number of markets. now given the turmoil, these analysts worry that hershey
6:31 pm
won't be able to hit the long-term growth and margin targets. they're hurting a lot of companies. meanwhile even though the input costs, especially dairy costs haven't been coming down the bearish analysts think declining commodity costs might not represent a tail wind like many people think. particularly because prices are rising. the price of sugar increased by 10% since the begin of the year. at the same time they also have concerns about hershey's u.s. business. that's 83% of the sales. in particular they worry that mars which is losing market share for years could be more promotional. cutting price and any kind of price war could do damage to hershe wrrks hershey. i think it's a stress. i'll tell you why. hershey's, nestle and mars raised prices in the u.s. and long history of being very
6:32 pm
rational about pricing. one less worry, high end chocolate is gaining share in this country and hershey's doesn't have much exposure to the segment. you spent a lot of money on valentine's day although this is one when i think about it. the bear case okay now you know it. how about the bull case? what about the bullish argument which is are spear headed by wells fargo and goldman sachs. they only upgraded a big piece of the staples. they did point out in the world where a u.s. economy is strong and costs like oil, which is a company they use for fuel and packaging are falling through the floor they'll continue to outperform s&p 500 pretty dramatically. a lot of people have written this group off only to be left behind. they're expecting a major upside explosion in the gross margin. in july her she announced an 8%
6:33 pm
increase here in the u.s. and then the price of milk powder dropped 40%. sugar fell by 13% and of course cut in half. that equals gross margins key to a lot of the upside we like to see on stocks. they're bullish about the ability to boost margins. this is an area that they were bearish about but the bulls at wells fargo note that hershey has been investing in these markets for year and they believe the company can leverage those investments meaning make a lot of money off of them while did you tell cutting their advertising spending. they're still about a thousand basis points lower than in north america and they believe the company can make a lot of progress in closing that gap. the analysts think there's a chance hershey could acquire business. they have grown brookside sales
6:34 pm
from 85 million to 250 million. there's roughly 20 other companies similar to brookside in the chocolate and confection nary confectionary space alone. plus they're trading at 15 times earnings interest which is roughly in the middle five year range relative to other u.s. food stocks. the analysts at wells think the stock deserves to trade higher. especially because they believe the estimates may need to be raised. to wells fargo, 2015 is looking like 2012 when the gross margin expansion exceeded expectations and the earnings grew by 15% which is much higher than 68% growth and much higher than anybody else in the super market. heres my idea hershey reports this thursday, the 29th. i think the company is in the sweet spot. mostly domestic play with a ton of exposure to convenience stores and gas station where is consumers are likely to save
6:35 pm
more money. i recommend putting half of your position on before hershey reports and if it sells off after the quarter use that to buy more of this incredible high quality sweet tasting name. hershey got dinged on friday. curtesy of the downgrade and i think you should try to use the weakness to build up position. hershey is exactly what the market likes here and i bet we'll hear good things thursday when we find out the truth about hershey from the results and conference call. i can't wait. they only report four times a year. how else can you justify eating that much candy? adam in washington adam. >> caller: hey jim, a big blizzard booyah too you, sir. >> yeah really nasty. i can't believe it's happening booyah. what's happening with you? >> caller: not much. first thanks for all you do for the home gamers here. we watch all the time really appreciate it. >> we do try our best.
6:36 pm
i have to admit. >> all right i have a 15% position with kroger kr in my portfolio. i bought in on your recommendation at $51.35 and now i'm at $68.92 man. >> whoa! all right. here's the deal with kroger. i can't tell you to sell it. here's why. this is the finest super market chain in the land. it deserves to be selling for more than it does. is it going to go down three or four points and you try to get back in it like a hedge fund. we have been right about that one. i have to pat myself on the back. i missed a lot too but you have to hold on to kroger. this market has a sweet tooth and you can use any bitter drop in hershey take a bite into the stock. we have so much more ahead. we have a closer look at the consumer giant buying huggies
6:37 pm
and depends. and then my survival guide for domestic oil and gas industry. how low can prices go before things get painful? i have the numbers. plus a special blizzard edition of the lightning round is just ahead. why don't you stick with cramer?
6:38 pm
6:39 pm
6:40 pm
what went wrong with kimberly-clark? one of my favorite companies. makes everything from huggies, diapers, to depends and kleenex- kleenex tissues. some people think it gained weak guidance for 2013. that caused the stock to get hammered and it continued to get punished today. close at 109 and change. a company like kimberly-clark should be benefitting from the declining oil prices. key ingredient in all things plastic, it hasn't seen much gain from that and it's being hurt by the strong dollar which means overseas sales get translated into fewer green backs and the financial black hole that is venezuela. the exchange caused them to take
6:41 pm
a $462 million charge and the company expects the strong dollar to shave 8 to 9% off it's revenues in 2013. still they sport a 3% yield. have to believe this company can do better in the future. let's check in with tom, the chairman and ceo of kimberly-clark. welcome back to mad money. >> good to be with you today. >> do you think the market is viewing things so short-term you haven't seen the big decline from raw costs but people are acting as if you'll never see the gain and the currency is going to continue. >> this is one of those times where we want to reflect on warren buffet's quote that in the short-term the stock market is more like a voting machine and in the long-term it's a weighing machine. we look back at the weight of the value we created. last year we delivered more than 3.3 billion in dividends and stock repurchases so we think
6:42 pm
we're executing and doing all the right things. obviously the currency is a big head wind. just on the top line alone it's an 8 to 9% drag in 2015. bottom line is 15% plus. >> now some of the analysts also think you're lugz some share. that wasn't that clear to me in that some of the places like in diapers it looks like proctor is taking share or chinese guys are taking share but in the end you're talking about how the economy is getting better and at the high end you're taking share. it's more of a mixed picture than negative picture, isn't it? >> that's right. in the markets like china our diaper volume was up 25% last year for the year. so we're growing ahead of the category. our feminine care business was up a 20% level. we were up 25% in russia in the middle of the war. that's a big number in russia and eastern europe. we saw double digit growth in brazil. we're seeing pretty broad growth. we did lose some share in the u.s. and that's what analysts sometimes focus on a little
6:43 pm
closer in to home. >> yeah i think that that -- i think that that's reversible but that's up to you. a promotional environment is difficult but you're used to promotional environment. let's talk about venezuela. clorox bit the bullet. saying it's just not worth it. at what point, with 3% reduction sales, at what point do you say we've had it with venezuela? why does a great company like kimberly-clark have to take what venezuela gives it? >> our job is to provide essentials for a better life. there's moms in venezuela that need diapers and tissue and feminine care. we have a team of people there trying to deliver on that and our business is profitable even at the 50-1 rate that we're going to we would still expect to be slightly profitable. what we hope is that this economy eventually comes through some of the tough times, especially made tougher because of the low oil prices and venezuela will be a market we want to be in. has got some good option value
6:44 pm
to it. >> all right. taking the long-term view. now i have to tell you, i have been saying a lot of things in my time that were different. this is a bobble head i'm showing. >> jim, you never looked better. seriously. >> well, you know frrks, from the head up maybe. this says drop your pants for underwearness. it's about technological advancement and depends. the fastest growing cohort in this company are the people in their 80s. can this move the needle for a big company like kimberly? >> the big news is we're all living longer all over the world. so that means there's a greater need for our products like depend and poise. we're trying to create that to be a more normative conversation. it's about people saying i have a relative that has a need for that profit or my mom or dad needed to use that product and i'm going to support them and make sure they get the best product out there. that would be the products from depend and poise. >> also go back to the
6:45 pm
financials for a second. you have a lot of fire power. you have always bought back stock when it's been appropriate. is this one of the cases that if the stock keeps going down this is kimberly-clark's chance to be able to buy the stock cheaper than normally. >> we have expected another 800 to a billion in purchases this year and increase the dividend mid single digits. that will be the 43rd consecutive dividend increase. that's a great track record of shareholder value. >> thank you tom. you don't get stocks like kimberly-clark at a big discount like this and when you do get them i urge viewers to take them. you have a terrific situation versus taxes and treasuries and you have a situation where all the negatives are built in. none of the positives when the raw cost comes down. this is a terrific opportunity to buy kimberly-clark. thank you very much. >> thank you, jim. >> guys, kmb, you get it one day down i get but a second day
6:46 pm
down. tomorrow i think kimberly bottoms. i want you in there buying some kimberly. it's too good a stock to be down this much. mad money will be back.
6:47 pm
6:48 pm
6:49 pm
>> it is time for the lightning ground. >> and then the lightning round is over. are you ready? time for the lightning round. i'll start with roy in massachusetts, roy. >> caller: jim, a big booyah to you. >> same back at you, roy. what's going on? >> caller: this about sales coming into the u.s. what about underarmor? is it a buy? >> i want to invest in under armour and not trade it. a lot of guys are in and out and in and out. the stock had a big spike but it does come down with any general market decline. that's when i want you to pounce. i have to tell you, i think kevin plank is a genius. he's up about nike. it's very tough. you have until february 4th before they report.
6:50 pm
if you get a decline buy. virginia in ohio. >> caller: cramer you're the best. booyah. >> you may be the best too. what's going on. >> caller: lockheed martin. >> we love lockheed martin. that's a buy. >> thanks for taking my car. how about trw? >> i like the auto parts more than the auto makers including trw. and that ladies and gentlemen is the conclusion of the lightning round. >> the lightning round is sponsored by t.d. ameritrade.
6:51 pm
6:52 pm
6:53 pm
>> oil has a hold above $45 and natural gas must stay around $3 or look out below. those are the black magic levels where a home grown shale discoveries become uneconomic for most u.s. companies to drill in. those are the make or break levels for this once thriving industry. this morning we got pretty amazing aggregate drilling numbers. that's for oil and gas analysis and the numbers are down. right now at these prices almost every single important u.s. shale play is teetering on the border where it makes no sense to drill at all. just not worth it. get aload of these figures.
6:54 pm
right now the bakken in north dakota had 1% return on investment when last october it had a 39% return on investment. they're breaking versus a 37% return on investment a few months ago. permian is giving you 3% down from 40% and eagle ford is 0% versus 40% in the fall of 2014. natural gas is even more perilous. they're giving you a minus 8% and minus 11% return on investment for dry gas using a generous 3 million per -- $3 per million british thermal units price compared to plus 15% and 16% when natural gas was at $3.75 back in october. notice by the way you aren't even getting a spike from today's storm of the century. a fuel is used to heat about 65%
6:55 pm
of our homes. these crashes in price, and you have to admit that's exactly what they are can only be described as breathtaking and they happen so quickly that i don't know a single company that was ready for that. hence the chaos and dreary stock prices. it has nothing to do with return. those are incredibly profitable and cannot be shut in. they generate cash flow that the bulk of the companies need to help with the debt. obviously some have better than others with much better returns. many will be able to survive and thrive at these prices. at least until their oil is defeated and their hedges come off. these are also the source of overproduction and there's not much storage space for it. refineries are damaged with oil. more is coming from the gulf of
6:56 pm
mexico from riggs suspended but now tapped into huge amounts of crude. i don't know if oil or natural gas can hold at the key levels given all the supply coming from this country alone and the u.s. isn't the only country where overproduction is rampant. same goes for russia iraq and iran fields. we're all part of the axis of over production. there's long-term positive forces at work. you should get more economic activity worldwide because of the low prices stimulating global demand. they're also very shallow. losing about 15% of their oil per year. hence the need to drill. we also know that the oil stocks can bounce like today and if you want to reposition to higher quality oils that's fine. keep these figures in front of you. we're going to see a huge number of estimate cuts of oil and gas taken out at these levels. it would be ugly. however as long as oil companies can adjust they'll live happily ever after or at least if they can make it until we get some
6:57 pm
higher prices. maybe sometime next year. stick with cramer.
6:58 pm
6:59 pm
stocks get hit. that's the opportunity. microsoft, i like them down here. charitable trust is waiting to get in bigger. there's always a bull market somewhere. promise to try to find it just for you right here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer and i will see you tomorrow.
7:00 pm
[ mid-tempo rock music plays ] >> more than a year has passed since colorado became the first state in the nation to legalize the sale of recreational marijuana. but sometimes the line between what's legal and what isn't is still a little hazy. this is not the first time cops have been called to this head shop in wheat ridge.


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on