tv Street Signs CNBC January 27, 2015 2:00pm-3:01pm EST
profit taking today. west texas and ice brent crude tied both showing significant percentage gains. >> for the first time in a long time, actually, gasoline prices moved a little higher overnight. that's it for this decision was "power lunch." >> street signs starts right now. stocks slammed as investors shrug off the snow and focus instead on earnings. hello, everybody. welcome to "street signs." mandy is on assignment today, and another huge day today. apple and caterpillar bringing down the dow. we're down about 250 points, but below the day was 17,288. we're about 140 points off that low. still, no consolation especially for microsoft investors. that stock is on pace for its worst day in a year and a half. you do have gold rallying, though, up over $13 per ounce. let's get to it and get around the horn and hit everything thaw need to know beginning with mary
thompson at the new york stock exchange. >> thank you, brooirn. as you mentioned, the headlines are the earnings disappointed investors along with the goods numbers. those numbers putting pressure on the markets guidance which, of course, investors watch when these companies report. very light. the 18 s&p 500 companies report are issuing guidance. all 18 have issued negative guidance. a beg reason for that is the dollar strength that we have seen over the last several months. that impacting a number of multi-nationals as they release their earnings today. among those companies, pulling down their 2015 forecasts because of this stronger dollar. dupont, united technologies, fidzer, as well as proctor & gamble. there's something else to play with earnings in the fourth quarter, and that is the impact of lower energy prices. for some companies, it might be a positive, but for caterpillar, it's a negative. it's going to impact its equipment sales to the oil industry. not just in the last quarter, but it will also impact it in
the coming year. it, too, took down its 2015 guidance, and it is down at the southern end of a half percent. the headlines are disappointing earnings and disappointing guidance, and a shocking report on durable goods orders. back to you. >> everything changed in about 24 hours. mary thompson, thank you very much. certainly 24 hours ago was a much better time for microsoft shareholders as well. let's get to bertha coombs with probably the stock story of the day. >> it really is. it's bringing everything down. apple is up as well. big cap tech. just nothing to say about it, but take a look at biotechs. investors, as they're looking in this down grab going to some of
the ooshl suspects, and bidding them up. the biotechs are turning around. pfizer had very good comments. that has a lot of big biotech drugmakers today getting love. also, some of the usual suspects as far as momentum. netflix, of course, lots of folks at home streaming with the weather. take a look at gopro. tesla. some of the names today also enticing investors. back to you. >> i don't recalling what to say about it, rick. >> it is obviously not a high yield, and it doesn't look like it's going to be going a lot higher any time soon. considering how significant 171 is, it's the current 20 month low closing yield. we've had many handses to go after it. we just can't seem to get through it. you see on the intraday chart, 180, down two basis points. the chart at 30.
they were also below significant areas. 136. knee come back a bit as well. gold up. energy up. a bit counter intuitive for lack of inflation keeping yields down. no matter how you slice tshg it's kind of like the good old days again. durable goods definitely was a big miss. even though consumer confidence was a strong hit. then again, that was most likely due to the psychology of retail energy prices by the consumer. back to you, buddy. >> i guess it's a little worse in germany where the ten-year is yielding 0.34%. >> there's your news. let's dig deeper and get actionable advice. let's go from -- also, charles of aerial investments. all right, dan, 18 companies. the s&p 50000 have gin guidance so far. all 18 came in below what wall
street expected. >> it willing lieberman a tiff period. we will get more volatility, and what's going on with the ecb and contrast with the fed. it's an environment we're going to have the big moves in the markets, and it's not always going to be able to tie to one leerns story like, say, disappointing earnings. >> is there any fed protection, if you will, the bernanke put, whatever you want to call it in this market where things get bad, stocks should go back up because the idea then is that the fed will be on hold of any rate hike longer? as morgan stanley basically suggested today.
>> there will be ae possibility that the fed lo do what it can to keep the economy growing. it's hard to come up with the scenario where that's really likely. i think the idea that even with the low inflation numbers, the fed is probably going to stick with its midyear. it began to hike interest rates, and that's probably the correct one. i think it's a matter of appreciating. it's going to be a volatile market. it's going to be like this for a while, and so focussing on those parts of your investment, universe where you think the gains are going to be there at the end of the year and buying those markets approximate when you see the dips. >> i'm not saying it's a good thing the dow is down. we all want stuff to go up, not down. we have 401ks. i do find some small measure of joy in the fact that once again we're actually correlating earnings to stock prices. maybe it's a rationale market. >> stocks are worth the cash that they earn over time. all this discussion about russia wra and the ukraine and china and foreign exchange masks the core fact, which is that a stock is worth the present value of
its future earnings and cash flow. i think what has been disappointing are those earnings. they said that when sorrow comes, it comes not as single spies, but in battalions. we've had battalions of bad earnings over the last 48 hours. >> are you surprised by the numbers that you've seen? >> i and the home market was. we all knew that foreign exchange was going to be an issue. there was going to be an issue on guidance, but it's clearly been a bigger issue than we thought. we've all been debating the impact of lower oil prices. we all thought that there would be a positive in terms of impact on the consumer, but headwinds in terms of capital gains, and it looks like capital expenditures, excuse me, and it looks like headwinds from capital spending right now are over shooting the positive from the consumer. >> well, you are right, charles. anybody who says they saw these numbers coming might be fibbing a bit because the stocks wouldn't react the way they did if somebody had seen them coming.
>> people tend to anchor. they tend to be slow to incorporate new information. >> i regret to say that the evidence is that we probably haven't incorporated all the bad news yet. >> okay, dan. where are you finding copper to be for those of you are envesting for tia -- >> we're looking outside the u.s. we didn't have very high expectations for earnings this year. we see earnings growth. expectations coming down as well. if we look at where kind of the marginal potential is, it does seem to be coming out of europe. we have much more margin to have the ecb finally taking action. all that is an environment where you think there's potential for much bigger in european equities, and you are likely to look west.
>> i love that. it's a great reminder. buy when things are bad. that's the whole idea. don't sell at the top and buy -- or whatever it is. thank you very much, dan and charles. do appreciate it, guys. thanks. >> thanks for having us. >> up next, the party, if you will, is over. we're going to tell you what just happened at the pump that has not happened in 123 straight days. plus, some big housing head scratchers that have us pretty down right confused. we, of course, are keeping a close eye on this market selloff. here is a look at all ten major s&p sectors. only one is in the green right now. the utilities and defensive play. everything else is down. much more straight ahead. don't you go anywhere. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets
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welcome back. i'll julie with cnbc market flash. wwe entertainment shares skyrocketing after announcing its wwe network has topped one million subscribers just 11 months after launch, which the company says makes it the fastest growing digital subscription service, saying that nearly 90% of subscribers access is at least once per week. this certainly speaks to the strength of companies going direct to the consumer. the stock now up over 15%. brian. all good things must come to an end. gasoline prices inched higher.
sfroo no. >> yes, they did, steve liesman. >> they it can go up? i had no idea. >> .4 of one penny. .4 of one penny, but that did end a record 123 straight days of gas declines. by the way, they've been following pretty much since the beginning of the nfl season. that puts it in a different perspective. >> that is a neat stat. let's focus, shall we, on the big picture. gas prices, let's be real, are much lower than they were a year ago. that could be why consumer confidence jumped to its highest level in more than seven years. it's the only good data we got today. steve liesman, aforementioned, is here. you asked about oil in your latest -- >> economist strategists said, hey, what's your bottom line on oil? we'll give you the number right now. it is drum roll, please, $40 is the average.
people do see it going down to $25. it's a long way to go. i was an oil reporter in 1998 when oil fell to about $10, $12 a barrel. you can see gdp had he did see the lower oil prices seeping into the corner and raising nonfood prices. finally, very important question out there. we asked why are oil prices down the way they are? is it supply? is it demand? is it both parts? you can see there 56%. pretty solid majority. the real reason is excess supply. they are not taking at least this group of people we polled on wall street. not taking a weak demand story, brian, out of this issue of why oil prices are so low. one-third say it's equal parts supply and demand. >> okay. now let's move on to the fed.
a -- the fed's two-day meeting kicks off today. tomorrow we talk about the fed. morgan stanley came out and said that they are pushing back their fed rate hike expectation to march of 2016. in your all america survey, what are your economists saying about a fed rate hike? still liable to happen this year? >> this group pushed it ahead from july on average to september on average. this group is 33 respondented who came around this time in the philadelphia survey. they -- the majority are still saying july, but because more people moved it out and, in fact, we had two people that are equal to that morgan stanley that were longer than the morgan stanley beyond. the big story on the table right now is a fed interest rate hike on this year or are they off?
>> we have competentists making this morgan stanley call on "closing bell." >> she will be here, and she can defend that call. i think that is the latest of any of the major wall street houses. >> absolutely. that is true. >> yes. >> and there's an e-mail chain. >> you called it the outliar, which i like. it's the yacht allow among outlaws. steve liesman. >> you have something else to plug here. >> it's very important. >> we have a big fed decision right here on street signs tomorrow. nobody is expecting a fed rate hike. you never know. one of these days the federal reserve is going to shock the world like ali. tomorrow 2:00 p.m. eastern time. all kinds of good stuff. just watch this network for 124 straight hours. >> let's bring in diane because housing and the federal reserve do go together like peanut
butter and chocolate. you pointed out something that does have us a little confused. what is shocking us in the housing market right now? >> no, say it's not so. it's all sales and prices. also they go together like peanut butter and chocolate, right? a three-month price average ending in november. prices are up, but the gains are shrinking, and s&p's economists say prospects for a housing home run this year not so good. then we get the december read of signed contracts to buy newly built homes. up nearly 9% from a we're ago. builders hiked prices 8%, or maybe it was that the medium price was skewed by more highend buyers. this at the same time is dr horton says its q1 success was drin by its super low priced
express homes. guys, discuss. prices. sales. they don't seem to be going the way they usually do. >> i have no idea. can you figure this out? >> we got those off the charts mortgage am education numbers. you have had a couple of things that have come into place. look, i have been wrong on housing for a long time. i have expected for very, very logical reasons demographics to take over this course and for household formation to lead to better real estate sales. now, what hasn't happens is you haven't had the increase or the decrease in lending standards.
>>. >> i'm fwog agree with you on those last two. i am. crazy. crazy. i'm going to agree with ow the last two because confidence driven by those lower gas prices, i believe, is what's getting people out looking to buy a home. >> those who believe they can afford a home now, but have been sitting on the fence, they're the ones who are really going to be out looking. the biggest question for this spring is going to be are there enough people out there selling? is there more inventory to buy those? >> i have one other question for you, which is these new standards from the fhfs, which is to make it easier for first time home buyers, does that make it have a meaningful affect on the housing market. part of the probe is we're losing a generation of home buyers. you don't get the first time home buyers in. you don't have second time home buyers.
>> if there's one link in the chain that stops because of credit standards or whatever it is, it shuts the whole thing down. >> it comes back around to prices. that's why we have those price increases. the job market. if you have a million or two million more people working than a couple of years ago, they might return to the housing market. >> it's not just job growth, though. it's income growth in those jobs. >> i will say one thing, which is potentially ironic, which is everybody is looking around for the winners from lower gas prices. it would be unexpected at the very least if one of the winners from lower gas prices ends up being housing. that would --
>> i don't know if anyone is going to buy a house. gas is down a gallon -- a buck a gallon. >> i don't buy that argument that it's going to be the exit. >> it's part of a whole confidence thing that then creates the final lynch pin that might get people out it buy a house. sdmrooits a good discussion. it's the one thing that literally we all seem to have in common. thank you. >> steve, thank you. >> pleasure. >> caterpillar, microsoft, united technology all blaming the strong u.s. dollar for their disappointing returns in guidance. we found some american companies that should benefit from a stronger dollar. that sector, maybe some names coming up. it's not all red out there. heck this out. what? waters corporation ticker wat. it is the single best performer in the s&p 500 right now. looking for green? found it for you. back after this. recently, a 1954 mercedes-benz grand prix race car made history when it sold for a record price of just under $30 million. and now, another mercedes-benz makes history selling at just
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♪ they cut the power. it'll fix itself. power's back on. quick thinking traffic lights and self correcting power grids make the world predictable. thrillingly predictable. the dow still down. only down 191 points. i say only and 191 points in the same sentence without irony because we were down nearly 400 earlier in the session. we've come back a little bit. a dow component making a little news. american express just confirming to cnbc that they do plan to
initiate business and operate in cuba. amex saying when the time is right, they're going on enter the cuban business. which card would fredo use? the black card. diner's club. we are learning that a strong dollar can be bad for some stocks and their earnings. some, of course, does not mean all. check this out. that is a chart of the xrt, the real tsh retail index and the u.s. dollar index. if are you in a car in the radio, give you a hint, they're both going up together. lit us dive in, courtney reagan is here along with former retail exec jan rogers. jan, you drew this to our attention. thank you. your point is this, while we're moaning and groaning about the translation of dollars back here for many companies, for most retailers, it should be a good thing. >> it's a great thing if you are a domestic retailer that sells almost everything you sell
inside the united states and buy almost everything you buy outside the united states. who is that? it's dollar stores. it's macy's. it's target. it's kohl's, penny's. it's all of those kind of retailers who are dedicated to selling here that buy in dollars in foreign countries and they reprice every time they place the order. everything gets cheaper. the other thing is did is we're seeing all of this increase in wages and foreign countries that we have impacting retailers here, but the dollar finds that as well because they're paying those wages in local currency, not against the dollar, and every currency is going down against the dollar. when you talk to the ceos thaw talk to regularly, do they ever mention -- >> that's probably not one of those things they're going to check off as a look at this, this is good for us. we usually just hear the opposite side. we hear excuses like, oh, weather hurt us. >> it's too hot hoth.
it's too cold. >> it's not as good if you are coach and one-third of your business is -- half of your business is outside the state. all your growth is. it's really good if are you just this kind of o line kind of dopey domestic three yards and a cloud of dust kind of american retailer. >> old school football analogy from jrk. i like that. the point is maybe some of the apparel companies that are not global, maybe some of the teen apparel companies based here only here buying materials from overseas. they could be particularly the ones you want to watch. sdroo yeah. even if it's just mostly here, but i mean, the ones i really have on my list, like i said, are the guys like target and macy's and kohl's and pennies that are really the o line retailers that have always been domestic. had he tel sell to domestic customers, a guy who is benefitting from lower gas prices. they're not the extreme highend. it's also a good thing if you are in order stromz. when i look at this now, i look
at that combined as in currencies as well as gas prices as well as jobs. who is that? that's the broad line middle american consumer. >> what about wal-mart and costco? they sell gas. they also operate internationally. how would you like at those for those two players? >> well, costco has the best retailer in the world, so it's hard to bet against them. you did see in their last earnings big currency translation negative. it's not as good for them as it is other people. waip wal-mart, i'm a fan of wal-mart right now, but they do have a lot of business outside the u.s. it's less attractive for those two than the other ones i just named. it doesn't mean that great retailers aren't going to still do well. i don't think costco is going to have a big problem because currencies are a problem. >> this is way too happy of a discussion. let me bring it down. we're talking about the storm because we're here and the storm is here, but 80% of america's
population is untouched by this storm. four out of every five are like what the heck are they talking about? with that in mind cowan and company put out a brief note today naming the retailer withes with the highest percentage of impact to the northeast or exposure. tg maxx urban outfitters, lulu lemon and kohl's. about 20% to 24%. if you want to look at the dark side, maybe it's -- >> another dark side also companies that operate in the texas region. i also read the cowan note, and i said to myself when i read it, yes, but this has been the best winter for retail sales from the point of view of weather. >> it's been exceptionally -- until now it's been a wonderful winter. >> think about last year. jeez. >> see you soon, my friend. courtney, stick around. we're going to hijack courtney reagan and force her to stick
around for street talk. the domino's pizza ceo patrick doyle will join us live on street signs. i'll ask him why they're giving up on delivery. that's not really true, but you get the point. i'll explain. stick around. your old 401k is rolled over into a td ameritrade ira. yes! so no set up fees! wooh! yeah! so i get help from rollover consultants? wooh! yes! no rollover hassle. great. woah oh, we're spiking things, robbie.
2:30. time for a close at the nymex. we're closing firmer today. in fact, oil up more than 2% at $46 .11. we hit a new low of $46 .45 yesterday. the last couple of days, folks, has actually seen a little strength in crude, and, by the way, don't look now, but some of the few names in the green today are oil-related. neighbors all up. neighbors one of the worst performers of the s&p 500 the last couple of months.
it's one of the best today. up 4.6%. one wonder if the equities are starting to rebound on the sense of a foreign oil. who knows? time will tell. brian. time for something you guys do every day on "street signs." i get to join you for this. we'll hit the analyst calls. there's opportunity in this market. it's been a hectic day. we've come back from the lows, though. it was tough. highs and lows. here we go. highs and lows. let's get started with the street talk. the first one is news corp. getting an upgrate. yes, fbr upgrading news corp. their note called today sleeper stocks saying it's kind of an underperforming. they reiterate that outperform and 1850 target. just under 20% up side for news.
it should get more goods and services flowing. their target is 125. they see just under 20% up side in nsc. >> so medical device company medtronic. this is a big call from goldman sachs, and getting a good movement today as well. most things are down right now. they've also got a $90 target. about 18% up side on this minneapolis-based medical device. >> the next one, one of our competitors, but let's play fair. chart communications, what's happening here today? >> it's down. pretty much everything is down. atlantic equities resuming coverage of charter with an overweight rating. their target is heady. $207. a charter share, folks.
one of my favorites in the america. global, by the way. hello to the local. steve up to a buy from a hold. like the current marketing for the company. also the higher end mattress business seems to be doing well. their target $39 to about 28% up side. it may be right, but it's -- >> january is one of the months you get a white sale. it could be a good time. folks buying linens for the new mattresses. >> the 5,000 mattress doesn't seem to be hurt, does it? >> got enough to spend -- >> you can go to one of the stores in the reporting. start bouncing from bed to bed. see what happens. >> i just testing. >> thank you very much. >> now let's do something that only hg wells thought was
possible. time travel. we are going to look into the future about what we can expect from apple's big earnings report tonight and for that i submit your viewing pleasure in the earnings squad. >> mr. sullivan, thank you very much. tyler filling in for melissa lee. joining us for this hour is the anchor of c northbound's squawk alley. john ford from the new york stock exchange. from the nasdaq fast money trader tim seymour chief investment officer for trio gen. let's kick things off, gentlemen. with a little bit of the score card of the 24% of s&p 50000 firms that have reported so far. what are the expectations? what do you think? >> expectations are for eps of $2.60. revenue about 67.7 billion dollars.
it's kind of like a help me obe one kinobi given microsoft's disappointment. just as important here is going to be guidance. there is after the holiday quarter, but the street is expecting a droop of around 18% from the holiday quarter to the next quarter. that would be less of a drop than usual. usually you get around 24% revenue drop on the top line from the holiday quarter to the next quarter. that projection from apple going to be even more important than usual. especially given that the iphone 6 and 6 plus are driving the story, and apple has injust an inventory upwards which could be tricky to deal with.
>> the forecast is for about $1.84 a share in net versus $1.61 a year ago for the full year. $7.17 a share versus a little under $6. that's basically a 20% gain in profits year over year. that is pretty good. what the analysts are really watching because it has stumbled in the -- boeing has stumbled in the past on it. it's the cash flow number. the forecast for 2015 about $9 billion in cash flow. last year when the company rather disappointed with their estimates for cash flow what happens then? well, the stock went down about 15% over the next few trading days. watch the cash flow number. this is a company that's doing very well. they got about 5,700 orders for aircraft. airplane travel is going up around the world. as i mentioned at the top there, about 7.5 years of back on log orders. wouldn't you love to have that?
>> tubular production -- it's another reason why then since july the stock is down almost 55%. going into these numbers we know the numbers are going to be fantastic year over year. who cares? we care a lot about what's going on. they've got a tubular plant. we care a lot about the insight into overall counts that are going lower. to the extent that a lot of bad news has been priced into a company that's as sensitive to the oil and gas sector as any outside of that sector, i think it's very interesting on a day when also, you know, we at newport talk about the strength from autos and construction. people don't look at u.s. steel the same way even though this is arguably the best run of the three, i would say, in terms of how they have shown marriage cost efficiencies over the last couple of wreerz.
very low expectations. the numbers year-over-year will be 220%. who cares? it's really about looking forward to an industry that's got a lot of ebbing posure to oil and gas. >> it's interesting. with all three of these stocks, folks, we look at some of the mega events around the globe. thanks very much. brian, back to you. >> tyler, guys, thank you very much. >> well, it is the most important week of the year for the pizza business and the ceo of domino's about to join us on why they plan to dominate the super bowl and whether they're giving up a little bit on delivery. stocks clawing back. right now the dow way off its lows for the day. we're still down 194. it's still a rough day for the market, but we were down nearly 400 points yard line. domino's, the markets more. stick around.
by 1.25%. well off of its lows. it spent much of the day in negative territory. an interesting move back higher on the back of that earnings story where fr yesterday. back to you. >> well said. thank you. >> so i am here to confirm a few things. people like football. people like pizza. they really like them together. about 4.5 million pizzas will be ordered this super bowl sunday. many from our next guest company here for a cnbc exclusive is patrick doil, ceo of domino's pizza. patrick, seriously, i mean, how big of a day is the super bowl for domino's? >> it's big, brian. we'll do about is 11 million slices of pizza. we'll do about three million chicken wings. it's about 80% bigger than an average s sunday for us. >> you have big competitors. i'm not gblg to name names. one uses a good waterback that likes to call audibles. how do you make sure people call domino's? >> well, you know, we make it really easy for them. you know, if they want to order
from us, they go on digitally. we've been having great results recently. we're now doing about half of our orders -- our digital, and it's really the best way for people to get us. in fact, we just added something new now. you can go on to your samsung smart tv, and the app there, you can download it, and it will track your order. you can watch the game and watch the progress on the pizza coming to your door. we make it ease where i for people. we make a great pizza. we're going to do well. >> how close are we to having the app cook the pizza at this point? >> haven't quite figured that one out yet, but i'm sure we have somebody here working on it. >> you might have heard my tease. it had a fit about ending delivery, it's what you are known for. if i'm not mistaken, i'm watching your commercials, and they're, like, hey, come in and pick up your pizza. why? >> no. you know what, we're the delivery leaders. we always have been. we always will be. we do that better than anyone. but, you know, we've got 5,000
plus stores in the u.s. and about one-third of our orders are actually carry-out. we love to have people do business with us that way as well. a lot of people just prefer it that way. delivery has always been our strength, and we do that better than anyone. >> is it a -- we're here. obviously, you're a stock, and our investors care about how you guys do. is the pickup customer a different customer? is that an incremental add to business? i'm sure you have done some channel checks on who that pick-up customer will be? >> yeah, it is. about one-third of customers are delivery only. about one-third of customers are carry-out only. about one-third actually do some of both. that carry-out customer if we can get them to come and do business with domino's, that's an incremental order for us. >> lower gas prices, patrick. you p, we have debated this. we asked sally smith of buffalo wild wings yesterday if she
noticed any hard discernible impact on her business? she said not yet. not really. what about you guys? >> yeah. you know, i think it's a net small tail wind for us. it's certainly better. consumers have a little bit more in their pocket. you know, on average you're looking at kind of $500 to $1,000 a year. you know, of kind of incremental consumer discretionary income. you know, it helps a little bit, but it's certainly not enough that you see a big change in momentum as a result of lower gas prices. >> it's funny because we hear and have gotern in arguments in programs that lower gas prices are the greatest things since, i don't know, stuffed crust pizza for the u.s. economy, patrick. you are saying it's nice, but it's not the be all end all. >> i think overall for the economy i think it's very important. i think you're going to see more manufacturing. i i think it's a big deal. i'm just saying in terms of domino's it's a net add, but it's not a big change for us.
>> all right. patrick goil doyle, hey, good luck. have a great super bowl. we appreciate your time. we'll see you again hire on street signs and cnbc. take care, guys. >> thanks, brian. appreciate it. >> let's take another look at microsoft and caterpillar. these are, folks, your two biggest stock stories of the day. different industries, but they are both doing one thing. just dragging the dow down. caterpillar down more than 7%. microsoft down 8.5%. its worst day in about a year and a half. we got about just over an hour to go in trading. a lot more to do. we'll bring you a couple more stocks. stick around. don't go anywhere. we're back after this.
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well, it is a market sell-off, but they are trying to recover. the dow that is. in fact, four stocks are now higher. utx, j & j, triple m and merck. those are the four dow stocks which are higher at the moment. let us bring in zach karabell of invest net to talk more about these markets. i'm trying to figure out what's going on, is it earnings, is it europe, is it the dollar, greece, russia, whatever. what do you think it is? >> yes. >> exactly. i agree. >> yeah, i think as you know
doing this every single day, there's the crushing need for a narrative that explains everything on a daily basis and there's the reality that not every day has an ex plan fashplr everything. markets have been very volatile adding up to very little for the first 25 days. we're basically flat. we have a lot of motion. clearly a lot of people trying to figure out what's going on. i don't know how much of today is people trading from their living rooms or their bedrooms given how few people are actually physically present wherever they are. so you have got that and i don't think this is a greece reaction. you would have expected that yesterday. it's not like there's been any incremental news. i think the fact markets are stable in light of what would have thrown everybody in complete hysteria three years ago is a very good sign. >> i agree. and volume last time i checked was a little over 2 billion composite total. we do about 3.75 billion this a day, so we're lower but we're not totally dead either.
there's still a couple billion in volume. you know, zach, the one thing i wonder about that we have not talked about in the last couple days because of everything else going on is taxes. my mom does taxes for a living and there's so many new things that are out there. i wonder if we're going to see some or more tack sex selling. >> i don't know that you'd see that in january. you'd kind of expect to see that later in the year. that's yet another "x" factor as well as how are people trying to position around interest rates. i still think people trying to figure out what the actual interest rate environment is going to be over the years is probably the most challenging thing for people who are trying to decide where to allocate money and explaining where flows are going. i think that may explain some of this weird january movement as people are being whipsawed between rates going up, are they going down, is the fed raising or lowering? there's no charity there. people are kind of left. you have stocks which are still the best in u.s. equities which
are the best game in town although they've had strong global for the past few weeks but you don't have incredible earnings. >> the one thing i like about you, zach, and there are many things of course is you are not afraid to tell me or anybody else that we're wrong. my view on lower oil is this. forget about the overall economy. let's separate stocks from the economy. they're different things. i believe lower oil prices are a net negative for the stock market. right or wrong? >> they have been a net negative because traders anticipate all these bad things that are going to happen. sovereign defaults, emerging market defaults, too much credit. i think they've got to be more of a net positive in that lower oil prices help the margins of industrial businesses, retail businesses, consumer businesses, and all of that is a positive that you're just not going to see until april earnings. none of this is going to be factored in until the next three months and last i checked none of it is being factored in into
people's analysis of an earnings environment. so if you believe that the stock market is partly fueled or if not primarily by fundamentals, that kind of fundamental margin improvement and consumer spending will be good for a lot of companies. it's really bad for venezuela. it's really bad for iraq. >> although -- we got to go but in two days we've had two ceos of restaurants on who said it may help us, may not. they're not falling over themselves. >> but it's a lot better to go maybe not and then go wow, it helped then gto go it didn't. >> one stuck to keep an eye on is. l illumina. that's how we roll on "street signs."
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commodity of oil. don't know if they're bottoming or not but they are some of the best performers today and they've been some of the best performers recently. big market day. "the closing bell" has the economists from morgan stanley with their fed call. fed day tomorrow. "the closing bell" starting right now. i will see you in about 23 hours. well, happy tuesday, everybody. welcome to "the closing bell." the market finally trading on earnings but guess what? it's not liking those earnings. it's a market sell-off at the new york stock exchange. welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans. >> i'm bill griffeth. and then there's snowmageddon. billions spent on a storm that was largely a bust for those in manhattan part of new york city and parts west. those of you in long island and connecticut and eastern massachusetts and rhode island, you got hit as was predicted but those of us in parts west preparing for all of that was a huge displa