tv Squawk Alley CNBC April 1, 2015 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
metals continue to keep dropping. this is like ground hog day all over again. these were down 20, 30, 40%. transports, airlines did not have a particularly great first quarter and they're not starting off the second quarter very well on top of that, the transports down around 50 points right now. go daddy certainly a big winner. i said that's a lot. they still have a growth story. history is on the bull side. we asked our friends look at the second quarter and the third year of a presidential cycle. this has happened seven times since 1980.
100% positive average return is 7%. history is on the side of the bulls for the second quarter. >> and we will see what happens. bob, thanks a lot. this morning, go daddy of course going public. right now shares trading up about 32% in what was a pretty tough take. originally slated to go public. they pulled their ipo due to market conditions at the time. we asked him what's different now versus back then. >> technology has advanced a lot in the decade. >> and frankly, that is what we do. we do it with 37 countries and 17 languages around the country. >> people know the name. they know the company. the value proposition of a web page and owning your own do main
has also changed dramatically in the last couple of years. everybody, every small business absolutely had to have a web page and didn't think about it. you use google to find things. now search engine opt mization is not what it used to be. they're trying to expand internationally. you have got if mobile web to worry about. >> you sound like they are ten years late? >> i'm saying they are facing a number of challenges because there's a lot of price competition in their core business. >> there is price competition in the core business and when you think about the business of building that website, companies
like square space and wix, all of these companies have gotten into that business and done it very well. wix is a pubically traded company as well and they have figured out not only how to sell you a domain and let you have it but also help you build the type of website that it needs. >> and price aside this price is crazy for this stock right now. i have been a user of go daddy and wordpress. that product is unevolved. it is hard to use. you would be hard pressed to find a go daddy customer who says i love using go daddy. they built a lot of stuff over the nine years. it's probably very hard to develop new products. >> it is a company that is very competitive with the volatility.
in 2011, i covered the buyout when silver lake kkr were taking this company private and doing a leveraged buyout and they couldn't sell the debt to do the deal. bob bought all of the debt himself. that's actually going straight back. >> they really didn't do much. i mean, what have they really done? >> this gives you currency. >> they do have their currency have.
selling shares at 14 to 16 at the midpoint of that range be worth around $1.2 million. >> for a couple of reasons, much of etsy's traffic is or beggani. they do not rely on search engines to bring them traffic. amazon is trying to go local and trying to attract some of the same types of people that are on etsy, but that neighborhoody feel is the reason some may not want to go to amazon. as they move towards international, how successful will they be? they have got to show that they can grow to keep up with that. this is the type of ipo you tend not to get your hands on. etsy needs the money. >> you like this company?
>> i like it. 56% revenue growth last year. if it goes out at 1.2 being, if you look at ebay, ebay trades at about 4 times. ebay is only growing 5.5%. if it comes out and trades up 30 or 40%. i would be nervous. but there's a big growth story and i think culturally it plays into the times with handmade goods and a artisanal alternative to amazon. >> once the first trade happens it's too expensive. >> i remember twitter went public and then it rationalized a bit exit's a different stage now. etsy we could see the same thing. go daddy we could possibly see the same thing.
you're talking about mobile or social tail winds. and the way that periscope is going into that. >> the buy button has enormous potential. the exciting stuff is what you build on top of. i think periscope is on top of that. i was skeptical. >> i thought a lot about doing pod casting in daily mail. so we can get it into cars and devices as well. i think there are a lot of
opportunities that exist there as well. a lot of the companies are getting harder and harder to partner with. >> amazon is introducing the dash button, press the button and amazon will ship that product right to your door. it will launch with 18 brands. the program is free but available to amazon prime members. >> are we sure it's not an april fool's joke? >> i love this. we use this term internet of things all the time. i hate the term but this is the real internet of things. you push a button. it's like a grocery list and it orders the thing for you and you don't have to pull out a device. >> a gatorade order buttton? i'm not totally unconvinced that this is not an april fool's joke. >> what if it's for aa batteries? with all your drones? >> diapers?
>> have we gotten so lazy that when you know you're running out of coffee or batteries you can't pull out your phone? >> yes, people have gotten that lazy. >> there will be a lot of thought pieces. george jetson was having his shoes removed. >> they should call this like amazon jetson. the case on this thing is that they're talking about embedding it in washing machines, in your coffee makers, that makes sense. maybe this is just a test. i like my amazon echo that you ask about playing music. >> wait a minute. you're downing the button that you actually press but you're touting the amazon echo? how lazy do you have to be to talk to a piece of plastic? >> i think the bigger issue is the buttton only orders one thing. you have your button for
gillette raisers and you're waiting and waiting to push that button. >> and they send you the economy pack of 30 raiy zors. they could put a convenience charge on this. for a company that has the lowest price around if you are so lazy that you're not going to go to the website, couldn't they make this more expensive for you? >> i think we have finally found a topic to keep a straight face with than drones. >> the person who has the amazon acount on their phone doesn't have to be the one to order. the kids can do it, the teenager can do it. all they have got do is slap it. it's dangerous if you're not amazon. >> i didn't even consider the kids issue. >> i tunes found that out the hard way. >> never going to run out of cookies. >> when we come back, one million apple watches sold on opening weekend.
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>> apple's long awaited watch going on sale in just about a week and one analyst is making a bold call on how many could be sold during opening weekend. here with his expectation is gene munster. it's good to see you. >> hello. >> tell us exactly what you are expecting and more importantly how you got there. >> the reason is apple said they're not going to disclose total units per quarter. we have been surveying about 10,000 people in the last year and the rate of iphone owners is 5 to 7% of iphone owners say they will get the watch.
we assume we look at how many units were sold in the iphone 6 launch. so there is actually some logic around that. i think the clear take away is this. the first quarter is going be a decent quarter because of the fan boys. it will probably die down a little bit. it will be a big category for apple but it will take some time. >> i'm wondering what is the most important me trick to look at apple's watch. i guess i would argue the first week doesn't really matter which big developers are really putting more resources towards the watch? maybe get some numbers on them on usage and those numbers might be more important am i right? >> i think you're exactly right.
how this plays out, maybe a slight lift in the gross margin. the second is going look to some of the bigger members. what we have heard from those developers. allowing them to tap into the watch. part of it is for power reasons and part of it is for stability reasons. when we start to hear about better mur compelling apps being built, that's going to be the trigger to get the average consumer more excited about it.
>> asps do matter. there i think that asps clearly do matter because of the gross margin impact. expectations are relatively neutral going into this. >> whether you're buying the $10,000 watch or $350,000 watch, we know you will have to go into the store to get a tutorial and pick it up. so i'm wondering where is that strategy going pay off? is that something that will allow apple to sell more items in the store? is it more about usability? how do you think that will play out? >> i think this apple is ready
for just a surge of so the 450 stores that they have. >> pre-orders start april 10 and we will know soon enough. >> we begin the second quarter of the year. plus the future of mobile payments is already here. we will tell you what you need to know live from the biggest mobile payments company of the
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>> welcome back. in case you missed it, happy birthday. on this day 39 years ago, apple was formed by steve jobs, steve and ron wayne. apple inc was accomplished to sell the apple one computer. the original cost? 66 $666.66. obviously not a superstitious bunch. >> before that, you couldn't buy one share of ple for that price. shows how far the company has come. >> unbelievable.
>> joins us with all the details. josh, what's going on. >> john, why write a check when you can send money with the tap of a button. you can send and receive funds from your smart phone. that's how venmo works. you pop open the back and the funds are going to be automatically transferred from a bank account. this market is expected to grow rapidly. analysts say it will trip toll $17 billion. they say looking ahead they see real opportunity especially overseas.
>> now with everyone selling things with their mobile phones, it's so much easier to tap a few times and have money sent electronically instantly. >> now paypal does face new competition. there are some potential draw backs and one is security. you saw venmo make some headlines about security lapses. the company then responded by adding new features. so despite those concerns, a lot of fans of these services some of these companies are becoming their own verbs. don't be surprised if you hear a my lineal say just venmo me. >> >> that's a good point.
conference on the state's own religious freedom bill. we will talk to -- when we come back in a moment. but what if you could see more of what you wanted to know? with fidelity's new active trader pro investing platform, the information that's important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. it's your idea powered by active trader pro. another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. call our specialists today to get up and running. know your numbers, you and stay focused.d, i was determined to create new york city's first self-serve frozen yogurt franchise. and now you have 42 locations. the more i put into my business the more i get out of it.
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>> and criticism of a possible nuclear agreement with iran. he warned that a weak deal will endanger israel and the world. >> and troops are preparing to push isis militants out of the city. parts of the city remain in the hands of isis fighters. he expects the city to be fully under government control by tomorrow. >> and eagerly awaiting plans to hike the dividend. apple has raised its dividend in april and some think it's not a matter of if it does but how much it will. for more on that, go to cnbc.com. >> and burger king restaurants released a new perfume for april fool's day called flame grilled. it could appeal to both sexes who like the smell of meat. it comes with a free whopper.
it's only on sale for today, thankfully. let's get back to squall alley. >> steve is back at hq with more behind the numbers and how they are moving the markets. >> some worrisome economic data. the economy looks to have down shifted in the first quarter and it could have an impack on the jobs report this friday. construction, minus 0.1%. they did a big revision downward. by the way, the employment component of that shows shrinking manufacturing.
. here is analytics. >> i think the economy will reaccelerate. that will become evidence as the year progresses. >> among the factors that work here, the strong dollar earning exports and weaker oil prices hitting capital spending on manufactured goods and unemployment. the dollar and energy head winds expected to ease. .
the consensus is 248. there are downsized risks. >> steve, back at hq. you have heard of face book, twitter and snap chat but what about banjo? what exactly is banjo and why is it so important? damian joins us this morning from san francisco. good morning. >> great to see you as well. thanks for having me on today. >> the term virtual grid gets thrown around a lot. what is it and how does it work? >> so what banjo has been able to do is we developed technology that instantly organizes the world's social and digital signals by location. we can have a view of what's
happening anywhere in the world. we have been able to lay a grid over it and every time one of these digital signals is made, maybe it's a picture on facebook or a post on twitter, they're recorded to go to a location where that's happening so we're able to understand what normal looks like anywhere on earth. so normal is disruptive. >> it's. >> last november in tallahassee you're the first to really note that there was a terrible shooting taking place how do businesses look at this that claim to be mining information from social media? >> it comes down to visual listening. our amazing team has created our
own technology you know about knit realtime. our foe. fire shouldn't be. and so it's a big difference from just interpreting what people are saying. >> but if i'm a retailer, say i sell jeans, how do i use this to sell more jeans? >> all right. that's a great example. >> i will give you one during the super bowl, bud light had a big party in phoenix. what they. >> able to do in realtime at the location, they were able to see that the consumers how they were sharing their brand stories visually.
it was a really effective way. >> which is the most successful platform for the commercial customer? we talk about twitter and mining the data and mining the content that's on twitter. >> we as human beings see things visually. so photo sharing and video sharing is what is becoming most important. so banjo's photo listening system is able to detect those that are coming out of realtime photos and videos. as we know, those are happening on a lot of different social nedworks, not just twitter.
what type of event really is the social platform of choice. a realtime signal is going be disruptive in the world. you need to bring all of these signals together. think of each one of them as a string and you bring them together as a rope and then you have a true picture of what's going on in the world in realtime. >> it's nice to be called the most important social media company you have never heard of but is that considered a knock or a compliment? >> i take it as a compliment. we just haven't been loud, you know? we as a company have just focused on building the technology. so we're not out there promoting ourselves. institutions have been able to take advantage of the crystal
ball that we have created. most people haven't heard of us but now you will. >> dammian, thank you so much. we take you to arg arg where the governor is holding a press conference right now. >> the bill itself restates the standard of review for the course to consider in determining first amendment privileges as weighed against the compelling interest of the state. that simply stated as a summary as to what this legislation does. it's a balancing test. the bill itself does not pick winners and losers. it balances two competing constitutional obligations that our founding fathers gave to us. but the issue has become divisive because our nation remains split on how to balance the diversity of our culture with the traditions and firmly
held religious convictions. it has divided families. and there is clearly a generational gap on this issue. my son, seth, signed the petition asking me, dad, the governor, to veto this bill. and he gave me permission to make that reference and it shows that families, and there's a generational difference of opinion on these issues. so where are we now in reference to this legislation? i have asked through this process of our legislative leaders and members that certain changes be made. in some instances they were accommodated in change and other instances they said no. and that's the balance between the executive and the legislative branch. i certainly respect those bodies. it's been my intention all along
that house bill 1228, the religious freedom restoration act be crafted in a way that mirrors the federal religious freedom and restoration act that was passed in 1993 and signed by president clinton. i came to congress after that but i sat on the judiciary committee and house of representatives that considered these amendments and had hearings on this federal religious freedom and restoration act. and so i am somewhat familiar with it. and how it's played out across the country. it was my intention because the federal law does not cover state causes of action that we have a similar law in arkansas. and -- but we wanted to have it crafted similar to what is at the federal level. and to do that, though, changes need to be made. the bill that is on my desk at the present time does not precisely mirror the federal
law. it doesn't mirror it in a couple of ways, particularly allowing the first amendment to be asserted in the private litigation between parties or the reliance upon the state law and those claims. therefore, i asked that changes be made in the legislation, and i have asked that the leaders of the general assembly to recall the bill so that it can be amended to reflect the terms of the federal religious freedom and restoration act. in the alternative, it can be simply have some language changes so that those accommodations and changes can be made. so it can be done by recalling the legislation or having additional legislation that would accomplish those changes. again, this is difference between the executive branch, the legislative branch.
we all have our responsibilities. we all have our different viewpoints. my responsibility is to speak out of my own convictions and to do what i can as governor to make sure this bill reflects the values of the people of arkansas, protects those of religious conscious, but also minimizes the chance of discrimination in the workplace and in the public environment. it is important to recognize that the bill as it is currently drafted does not change who we are. and it does not change the current protections against discrimination. this bill simply defines a standard to determine the right balance. but how do we as a state communicate to the world that we are respectful of diverse workplace and we want to be known as a state that does not
discriminate but understands tolerance. that is a challenge that we f e face, making this law like the federal law will aid us on that federal communication but also was my original objective to the beginning. that is to utilize an executive order which interestingly has not been utilized from my research from the executive branch in state government in terms of protecting against discrimination in the workplace for state government. we're looking at an executive order to aid in that communication and make it clear that arkansas wants to be a place of tolerance. we want to be a place that has the right balance between religious protections and religious freedom and non-discrimination. also, i think we can be assured
that this will continue to be a robust debate in the future. i understand that a valid title has been approved that may put on the ballot an extension of the civil rights protection to additional classes of citizens of arkansas. that debate will continue and ultimately be determined by the people of this state either through their legislative body or through a vote of the people. so this conversation does not end. i have expressed my view to the legislature. it is up to them to respond to the request of the governor that changes made in the current bill to make it reflect the federal law that i think sets the right tone will look at additional action down the road as needed part lly depending on the actio
that the legislature might take. >> first i want to say i support a -- >> for the second day in a row, the governor of a state asking for changes to religious freedom legislation to be made. in this case it's arkansas, house bill 1228, which walmart has asked him to veto and his own son signed a petition asking him to veto, asking the legislature to make some changes as indiana did yesterday. >> this strikes me as being incredibly important because the governor of arkansas had said he intended to sign this initially and now he wants the language to hue very closely to the federal language saying that was his intent all along. he is very intentionally not appearing to back away from what he said. this needs to be very clear that this is not advocating
discrimination. he also ties in the fact that there's a civil rights law extension that is sort of on the table here and the question of whether gays and lesbians will be included in language for that. this has become very much our broader issue and i think the fallout from what happened in indiana is trickling out to other states that had similar things on the books. >> governor mike tense asked for the legislation to be on the books by the end of this week so we are still waiting for any updates to the situation there as it continues to be widener scope across the country. >> the front page of the washington post talking about the gop being called back into culture wars and being drawn into a growing national consensus that runs counter to what the states have put together. it's a difficult spot. some of them have national kplit call aspirations. >> when you have got religious conservatives pit up against business leaders in your local communities, that's bad for
republicans. clearly they need to do something and still do in these cases to make sure that that doesn't continue heading into an election year. >> in the meantime the dough has been relatively steady. let's get a quick market flash. >> so one stock that is really up to date here are shares of a biopharmaceutical company, espr, they are up around 9 or 10% this week. ubs analysts have initiated the stock with a buy rating and $140 price target. there are conservative assumptions so overall, a nice bullish report here. back over to you guys. >> let's hop over to the cme and get in touch with rick. >> hello. we all know we had some data points today and it seemed as though the 8:15 data pushed
rates down a bit but it wasn't that far from the mark. i founld the ism fascinating in other ways. think about it. why do we pay attention to ism da data? it's top tier to many traders around the globe. many believe certain areas within these reports like the employment index give you good glimpses but in the end it's the respondents that create the numbers so it's very important in the new trend to see some of the questions and observations by those respondents and a couple have been showing up a lot lately so you can go to the report. it's online. on the second page there's a list of about nine points. the ones that caught my eye, operating costs are higher due to increases in health care premiums. and they also continue to mention some of the aftermath in the tie ups and gridlock of getting certain products like heavy machinery because of the west coast ports. but considering this was the weakest number since may of last year, i find this very fascinating. so, you know, higher costs,
higher prices is what everybody seems to want but yet i don't think that anybody is going be cheering that the cost of health care going up. but what is even more is that we have this giant gorilla in the kitchen that nobody ever talks about. thisup. michelle did a great piece on cuba. the president has diplomatic relations to cuba. why doesn't somebody in government open up diplomatic relations to congress so we can maybe impact this? here is higher prices. i don't think it's a good thing. and we learned today, 1976, the anniversary of the first computer steven jobs setting up apple. the price, everybody was laughing, kind of funny. $666.66. i went to various inflation and cpi websites and today's dollars, that's $2500. and think about the lalack of computing power. all those prices go down and that's a bad thing. and these are the thoughts behind all the policy that's trying to fix the country after, what, six-plus years. on a different note.
i see 186 is the level for ten-year note yields and the big ongoing debate, what's going to continue to drive these rates down? one of the big reasons is scarcity, liquidity on a net basis. the biggest economies of the world are actually generating less paper than central banks need to be gobbling up of the so net new issue isn't a good thing, but in the end, i don't know if that is a logical way to proceed. but the full faith and credit of big governments goes a long way, even though their currency movements in many areas takes away 186, the level to pay attention to. because back to the topic, we get these wide moves. so in my opinion, the scarcity effect is more about how the markets are going to trade versus how well that will be handled in 20 years when we look back on it and think, was that really a wise decision to push yields down? in the end, would you lend your money to uncle sam for five years for 132 basis points? back to you. >> all right, thanks, rick.
youtube beauty blogg blogger michelle phan's videos have over a million views. yesterday she stopped by the stock exchange and we picked her brain about social video streaming like meerkat and more. >> this is what i really have to offer. i'm coming from a creator point of view. i started everything in my bedroom with my web cam. i knew how to edit, i learned how to do everything myself, so coming in from the creator's point of view and meeting in the middle with huge production company, we were able to finalize and come up with new ways to, okay, how can we make things different. it's because we know what the creators want, because i am a creator. and you guys know how to create premium content. so thus, icon was born. >> we also asked her how social network giant facebook stacks up with other competitors like youtube and vimeo. >> kids don't want to be where their parents are.
everyone is on facebook and that's why kids are going other places where parents or relatives aren't. they have done an amazing job staying relevant by changing and adapting and pivoting fast so i give them major props for that. which is why i still use facebook and i'm uploading my own videos on facebook too, to drive traffic to my channel. >> actually, amping up her facebook presence. finally, we asked her a question on all of our minds this week, meerkat or periscope? >> there is an advantage, because twitter bought periscope, and that's why they integrated periscope into their user interface experience. so it feels, like you said, more ingrained. however, i think meerkat can definitely find an amazing market. snap shot should buy meerkat. i think it's an amazing technology. i personally loved it and love the idea of meerkat, the logo and user interface is beautiful. and very intuitive. but nonetheless, live streaming will become more popular now that people have more mobile
phones in their hand, and boom, you get something raw and authentic on the moment. >> i don't buy a lot of makeup, so, you know, i don't watch michelle phan videos very often. >> you can say that on tv. it's okay. >> we provided for you. >> that's true. >> and you look good wearing them. >> i said i don't buy a lot. i wear a lot. but she is pretty brilliant. that snap chat -- makes more sense. >> we asked ben reuben about snap chat, ceo of meerkat. he said you've got the elephant going on, the logos look the same. are you trying to strike some chord with snap chat users. and he kept the founder stance and said, look, i'm interested in running this business, and seeing where it can go. >> that's what they all say. >> belies her age. it's unbelievable how sophisticated she is. when we come back, the annual tradition, major companies jumping in on the april fools jokes. we take a look at some of the best in a moment.
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fool's pranks, everything from pets to pools. first petco's prank features a pet selfie stick while t-mobile releases an unlushed carrier plan, and red box launches pet rentals. so your pet never gets bored at home. google coming out with several pranks that include a pac-man eating google maps. google panda in japan. and this google site reversal. very simple take, but effective, nonetheless. and the round, sony introducing sewn playstation flow, in which they have gaming goggles that have users swimming in a pool. guys, if we're living in a world where you can push a button and get new laundry detergent, maybe gaming goggles in a pool isn't so far off. >> sony is my favorite, because it's something sony would actually do. kind of useless and out there. hopefully they get this joke, laughing really hard internally and will stop coming out with
hardware people won't buy. >> lest we get an e-mail saying it wasn't a joke. >> as was the amazon dash. a day when the market is down, boeing is one of the worst performing dow components, although the best performing of the year-to-date. take a look at sandisk, obviously the biggest laggard for q 1 today. biggest gainer on the s&p. >> sandisk's entire business isn't broken. a lot of analysts trust it's just broken in the company. they have a strong position in flash, and you're optimistic about the back half of the year and all of these things, watches, phones, selling, then you have some reason to be optimistic about sandisk longer term. >> health caret actually the worst performing sector today which is against what we saw in health care and biotech among the best, up 15% in the first quarter. we'll see if investor demand keeps going. >> finally, twitter, we mentioned earlier in the hour, jeffries did initiate, price target of 65. periscope pairing up with the
overall trend of video online. i didn't realize 30% of global ad dollars will go online this year. up from 25 last year. we're starting to get into some serious percentages of global ad spent. >> big pot of gold. >> let's get over to wapner. that does it for "squawk alley." wapner at the half. carl, thanks so much. welcome to "the halftime show." our starting lineup, stephen weiss is the managing partner of short hills capital. josh brown is ceo of rid hoelts wealth management. founders of option monster, steve liesman, and jim lacamp in ft. worth, texas, today. bio hazard portfolio manager sam icily on whether the hottest sector in the market is in a bubble and where he's putting his $14 billion to work. who is your daddy. trade on