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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  April 2, 2015 3:00pm-5:01pm EDT

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biogen to comment on the crazy volatility we've seen the biotech sector lately. >> all right. we'll be watching tonight. melissa, good to have you back. i've been in for brian sullivan all week. we'll be back next week. have a happy passover and a very godod easter as well. and "the closing bell" starts right now. and welcome to "the close l bell everybody. i'm kelly evans to close out the week at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm bill griffin. stocks are trying to get into the winning column for the first time in april on the second or third trading day. don't forget this is the last trading day of the week. the stock market will be closed tomorrow for good friday. we might see volatility here in this final hour of trade. a lot going on right now. >> even though markets are closed tomorrow the crucial march jobs report will be released 8:30 a.m. eastern time. now cnbc will be live with that
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special coverage and we'll have full team coverage over the next two hours here, bill, to talk about a lot of the market expectations. we've seen a lot of numbers to the high side of course. then we saw that disappointing adp jobs report today. so a lot of back and forth. strong jobless claims. so many cross currents to work through. >> of course, the story we've been following for the last couple of hours, deal or no deal? depends on who you ask right now. word that iran and the five world powers in those negotiations led by the u.s. in switzerland have reached an understanding that will get us to a deal by june 30th. oil is lower on the news. we'll figure out what the announcement really means. plus we'll hear what president obama had to say about this development coming up a little bit here. >> we're also starting to hear from israel right now as well. here's where markets stand. we'll start with stocks then should talk about oil obviously. the dow is up 59 points today. a similar gain across the dow and the broad s&p 500 up about a third of a percent. the s&p adding sevening points.
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the nasdaq is struggling to stay positive today. 48.84 is its level at the moment. >> let's get to our "closing bell" exchange. danny hughes from divine capital is with us today. larry mcdonald from sockgen. mark from russell investments. jim lowell from advisers investment. rick san telltelli joins us as well. oils if we believe the wisdom that a deal with iran pushes the price lower since we're going to bring more oil on to the market from iran, is that good or bad for the u.s. equity market do you think? >> i think it's a net positive. there's a region in this country, the oil belt will suffer a bit more. overall for a consumer-driven economy to be able to sustain these kinds of lower prices i think will provide the impetus for consumers to spend more. their income is rising their savings is rising. we know from this week's spending report it was a little bit disappointing. that's like compressing a
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spring. consumers are impatient. as long as purchasing power thanks to low inflation remains good spending power remains elevated due to lower oil prices, i think it's a boone. >> danni, where do you think oil is heading and how significant is it that the trade deficit due to the drop we're seeing is at its lowest since 2009? >> it's interesting to see, kelly. oil has a little way to go. the consumer is the beneficiary of the market. jobs growth. jobless claims are down. interest rates are still staying low. that's about it. pretty much every other metric that you see, you know, retail clocking in three straight months of downward declines manufacturing index down five months. it's a little bit of a conundrum for u.s. business. if you're a consumer you're in great shape. if you're an investor, not so great. if you're both you're basically bipolar right now. >> the other story we're watching and we'll know more tomorrow, mark of course the jobs report.
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now, the jobless claims this morning came in lower than expected. adp's jobs report was lower than expected the day before which was not good. expectations for tomorrow's report have been coming down. where do you stand right now? what are you expecting to happen? >> our numbers are around 220,000 for tomorrow. a little bit lower. 230 to 240 on average for the year. we're a little bit lower tomorrow. i think the focus may not be necessarily on the number though. as long as it's around 200,000, that's what people are going to expect. it's about the wage information that i think is embedded in the report. that's what people are going to look at. we know wages are moving up on the lower end. walmart took care of that. many followed. mcdonald's being the recent one. any news about wages, that's what i think is going to be what people are going to read in on as far as when the fed will move. i think, again, the jobs might be the secondary news tomorrow in the report to the wage information. >> larry, what do you make -- i'm still thinking about the big miss yesterday morning on the pmi number.
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the manufacturing gauge. you know, that declines and a lot of folks look to that as a leading inging indicator for the economy and stock market. what do you think? >> true, kelly. a hot number tomorrow in the jobs number with the lower oil sets up for some really interesting systemic risk issues. if you look at currency, interest rate and oil volatility the spread between those three and equity volatility is extremely wide. you have elevated volatility in currency rates and oil and lower vom till volatility in equities. that smells like trouble to me. the move down in oil over the last six months three months in particular, lower moves in oil have interrupted u.s. equity realities. >> by the way, larry, if memory serves i saw a headline this week that says sockgen believes the fed will raise rates twice this year. here's a loaded question. do you agree with your employer? >> bill i love you. i will say, yes, i agree.
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in a perfect world. but i would say if you look at just the u.s. economy, we got a chance, very good chance for two hikes. but if you look at the systemic issues that are tied to oil and the dollar that could knock the fed off the train. >> rickster what do you think about oil and this deal with iran? >> reporter: you know i think it -- you always follow the money. i don't want to weigh in on three minutes until midnight on the doomsday clock. when you look at all the countries that have to go along with this, they're dying to do trade with iran. that's my take on it. i thought oil would be down more considering how many tankers and bathtubs are filled with iranian oil everybody seems to want to put onto the marketplace. i want to address one thing. you brought up a great point about today's trade balance which was the smallest deficit since the fourth quarter of 2009. three things. first of all, whether you like it or not, that will raise first-quarter gdp couple of tenths. the second thing is you would
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think a strong dollar would make exports weak, but imports are three times weaker. even ex-petroleum than exports. if the fed is truly data dependent, forget our biases about what they should or shouldn't do i think that alone keeps them from any move in 2015. >> interesting point rick. you're saying the trade deficit narrowing is more bad news than good news for u.s. demand here? >> yes, absolutely. ex-imports ex-petroleum for down. exprts down 1.6. >> dani hughes where are you going to make money in the second quarter? >> we're being pretty cautious. look at equity revisions down for earnings this coming quarter. it's been a huge slope downward. that's a big concern. that has to do with everything with the dollar with oil, impacting the u.s. economy. so where do you look? and i know i sound like a broken record, but i love dividend paying stocks. i think that you know, that's
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the place to stay when you're not sure what's going to happen you have to have that long-term view and you're getting paid to wait. >> mark, are you guys also overweight dividend stocks? how might a fed height -- >> yeah, we have been in the past. we're a little many rore moving away from defense. consumer staples have a good part of that space. they've done so well. our allocation is more non-u.s. versus u.s. the whole conversation we've had about energy impacts us in a positive way i agree. it really helps europe and japan and big developed markets around the world. we think non u.s. versus u.s. for the rest of the year is a better play in a multi-asset portfolio and utilities and staples are pretty rich in value. we would shy away from those a little bit and move more toward non-u.s. >> sell them to dani she'd be happy to buy them here. >> there you go. that's what makes a market. >> jim, you have liked europe
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and japan. you mentioned that in the past. europe has had such a great run in the first quarter. they far outperformed the u.s. markets here. time for a pause. i know i'm sounding -- it's the guessing game we've been playing about the u.s. market for the last five years. do you think we'll see a pause? or do you want to put money there? >> we absolutely could see a pause. i'd still be putting money there. we like europe and japan, especially japan mid and smaller companies. we think the stimulus measures put if place in europe creates enough of a safety net for investors to begin to take risks over there. we also think that it's best to do it in the hands of an active manager with a proven track record. we like ted weiss at fidelity international growth is the to play both of those markets well. >> that's as specific as it gets. >> exactly. larry, where are you going to make money in the second quarter? >> well, the second quarter really depends on the dollar. the dollar train, it's been a very powerful move. and there's so many trades around the world that are tied
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to the dollar. so there's a number of sectors and emerging markets that have been annihilated in the first quarter relative to the dollar's move. so we could see a reversion to the mean there. >> which way is it going, though, larry, before we go? do you think the strong dollar trend on the back of trade numbers and everything reasserts itself or instead weak data do we see a weak dollar return in the second quarter? >> well if you look at just the u.s. economic data relative to the world, it points to the strong dollar trade. but the things behind the scene that are concerning the fed, once again, i think from our friends in washington, acg analytics tell us, that the fed is very concerned about the move in the dollar. so at some point they start to talk the dollar down or they start to contain it and recent language from the fed, that's what we've seen. >> all right. folks, thank you all. have a good long holiday weekend. appreciate your thoughts as always on the markets. see you later. >> thank you so much. a oo50 minutes to go here. you can hear the whoop-whoops
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going. >> we usually hear them. >> before a long holiday weekend. it's only about 3:10 eastern. right now a dow up 57 points. the s&p adding seven. the nasdaq again, the lagger today up about five. keeping a close eye on oil prices here. >> yes, oil volatile today getting back some of yesterday's gains on news of this framework for a nuclear deal with iran. the pros will be weighing in on where oil prices go from here. also ahead, jobs jobs jobs. all eyes on the employment report due out first thing tomorrow morning. our steve liesman tells us how scary things could get next. and later, mohamed el-erian will give us his take on the jobs report and the impact it could have on treasuries and when the fed pulls the trigger on interest rate hikes. always look forward to talking to mohamed. that's coming up on "closing bell."
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slightly positive day for equityies here in the u.s. with the dow up 46 points. hasn't been a very volatile day. >> no. >> really. i think it is feeling like a day before big number. we got the jobs number coming out tomorrow.
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we'll talk about that in a moment. the s&p up five. the nasdaq up three. i want to show you how the 500 stocks are doing in the s&p 500. and even for such a slight up day, we have a lot more stocks green than red today. >> that's for sure. watch oil here closely as well. as bill mentioned the market will be closed tomorrow for good friday. that's not stopping the labor department from releasing the march jobs report at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. cnbc will bring you the jobs number they second they hit the tape and instant analysis from the pros. tune in tomorrow morning for special coverage. >> steve leaseiesman joins us to take us through what to watch for in the report. >> reporter: the worry about tomorrow's number is if it follows a weaker trend of data and ends up disappointing. here's what everybody is expecting 248 is the number. if that happens, folks, it will be the 13th month in a row above 200,000. that's a pretty good streak right there. unemployment seem unchanged. watching the average hourly wages, 0.2% compared to 0.1% in
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the prior month. but just when it looked like growth clearly softened along come three data points just in the past 24 hours to muddy the picture a little bit, want to show you what they were. auto sales beating expectations. the trade deficit you're talking about that that's a positive for growth, whether or not it was infected by the port. we'll have to see jobless claims also. really low numbers there. 268,000. here's some of the commentary i'm reading before the report comes in. "we can't keep getting reports like this showing current labor market conditions are at full employment and have the fed maintain that there is something wrong out there in the economy," that's bank of coketokyo. "the fed continues with the mantra that there remains slack in the labor market but these data suggest that any such slack is evaporating quickly." another from morgan stanley. guys, i'll tell you what my number is. i ran the model and it's a meager 200,000.
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>> oh, he comes -- >> a meager? how spoiled have we gotten? >> i know. >> i think that's right, kelly. >> that's a time when we really aspired to that number there. >> i have to tell you, my error rate has gone up the past threw months. each one of the numbers we had has come in 50,000 above where the model is. it ran really good for about a year. the fast four months it's been off the charts. in terms of my model undershooting how strong the job markets -- >> we like that trend. stay there. let's talk about it. we bring in meagan green, chief economist at john hancock. what's your expectation for the headline number? >> i think it could be around 250,000. to be honest, i'll be looking through the headline matter. >> because you want -- >> i'm looking -- >> wage growth. >> yeah, i want to see how much wage pressure we've been getting. >> do you expect to see some? >> i don't. in addition to bad economic indicators lately we have a global glut of labor. >> meagan do you look -- it's interesting if we keep adding
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jobs the aggregate income labor goes up. does that at some point matter or are you wanting to see wage growth specifically pick up? does that distinction make any sense? >> yeah eventually you think it would start to feed through into the wage data. it hasn't so far. i'd like to see it picking up in its own right. as long as we have billions of workers coming online in the emerging markets, i don't see why we would see wage growth pushing in. if we don't have wage growth pressures, we won't have upward pressure on -- >> what do you think steve? >> i'm not talking to megan. she says it doesn't matter. i'm coming in tomorrow at 6:00 in the morning to be on a special show we're having. megan, take that back and i'll tell you what i think. >> megan and are getting up at 6:00 to watch. >> you better be. i think that's right. there's a lot more slack in the labor market than the official unemployment numbers would suggest. what i keep saying is this general economic concept. don't say somebody's not going to do something until you tell me the price they're not going to do it at. what i mean by that is right now
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at the current wage level, that's been low enough to keep certain people on the sidelines. a little upward tick. i don't know if mcdonnell's and t.j.maxx, what's happening with target is enough to bring some people back in but at a higher price, you will take at least some people who have sidelined themselves and bring them back into the labor force. >> what about some of the wage hikes we're seeing in corporate america, megan? do you think that will have a positive effect? >> i think it's great pr. >> sort of on the fringe, isn't it? >> that's right. it will help on the margin. >> how long before we start to see meaningful wage growth though? >> i think it could be another 6 to 12 months so in my view i think the fed should hold out to start hiking rates and should and will are totally different things. i think they'll end up hiking at the end of this year out of compulsion to do something. i really think they should wait until 2016. >> can i tell you some of the implications of what meagan is talking about? tell me if i'm wrong here. you're saying the fed should allow the unemployment rate to drift down. it's a bit like one of those guys staying don't shoot until
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you see the whites of their eyes. let the number get down 5.1. could you imagine a sub 5% unemployment rate with the fed not hiking rates? >> i could, actually. i mean, the fed has redefined its definition of full employment twice now. they may well have to do it again, so i could see us getting sub 5% unemployment before they start -- >> when those numbers come down bill, the pressure on the federal reserve is going to be enormous for them to hike. >> it already is enormous at this point, but can you imagine that they will ever get the perfect scenario that they're looking for with unemployment down to where they want it to be and inflation expectations up to where they want it to be all at the same time? >> it's difficult to see, to be honest. here's a really scary statistic. if you take u.s. price data and employ the eurozone's methodology for actually calculating inflation, the u.s. is in deflation already. >> that cpi? >> cpi. already people are freaked out about the eurozone being in
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deflation. according to the same methodology the u.s. -- >> is that because of difference in shelter cost? >> it's the housing prices that are taken out. >> wow. steve, that's an interesting inging way to look at it. >> i love hanging around until 3:20 and learning something. that's an awesome statistic, megan. >> exactly. >> that's great. >> let's remind people there was a period of time right after the financial crisis we thought this economy wasn't going to add more than 110,000 jobs a month. >> you're so right. >> we're doubling the pace. we have for months. i just wonder, again, what that means how much trust we should place in these models. >> well, i think -- i'm not the only one whose model has been undershooting what's been going on. there was a big miss of 200,000, almost 200,000 in the consensus in november. i think what you have is a little bit of disjointedness between the underlying level of growth and the level of jobs right there. that means productivity has gone down. that's a problem for a whole bunch of reasons, but right now i'm a little bit more optimistic about wages than megan. i think we're on the cusp. when we start seeing the lower
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income getting wage increases, i don't know if it's pr i think it's more than that. i think maybe we could be in the age of the wage hike. >> all right. thank you, both. megan, good to see you. thank you for joining us. steve, we'll heatlet you wind your alarm clock and get ready for the special tomorrow. let's talk about it. no holiday for our friends at "squawk box" tomorrow morning. they'll bring you the jobs numbers as soon as they hit the tape at 8:30 a.m. eastern time tomorrow morning. join us for the special cnbc coverage on jobs in america. >> wouldn't miss it. 40 minutes to go here intountil the close. there's the nasdaq struggling to stay positive as we close at out the week here because of good friday. it's up 2 1/2 points. >> can you tell it's a day before a three-day holiday at the stock exchange? oil prices getting back yesterday's gains. as the outline, at least, for a nuclear deal with iran has been reached in the last couple hours. the pros will give us their reaction especially as it pertains to oil, when we come back.
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volatile day. i mean crude oil did slide after word was getting out of a framework of a nuclear deal with iran which was reached a short time ago but we have come back a little bit since that time, right? >> michelle caruso-cabrera has the details now. >> just a few hours, kelly and bill, we saw the announcement indeed there's a framework for a deal with iran when it comes to their nuclear program. let's show you what it is. right now, iran has agreed they're going to go from 19,000
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to 6,104 centrifuges. their facility will no longer enrich uranium for 15 years. they will only enrich uranium at natanz. inspect us will have access for 25 years. centrifuge manufacturing will be frozen and subject to continuous surveillance and both in exchange for all of that, in it is verified coming to an agreement by june 30th so lots of caveats. the u.s. and the eu will lift their nuclear-related sanctions or suspend them after verifications. the president of the united states barack obama, called this a historic moment in a speech in the rose garden. >> it is a good deal. a deal that meets our core objectives. this framework would cut off every pathway that iran could take to develop a nuclear weapon. >> next we see if his critics in the congress agree. that's going to whenbe a key step. guy, back to you. >> michelle, thank you very much. let's talk about the kind of
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economic impact the deal could have especially on oil prices. >> swroinjoining us dennis gartman, editor of the gartman ledder and cnbc analyst, the founder partner of again capital. and, john, still to be determined i guess is how soon as part of this deal iran will be able to sell their oil. i mean they've wanted to do this from day one. but there's been pressure to delay releasing some of that oil down the road until there's more confirmation on what they're doing with their nuclear capabilities here. >> right. and under the 2013 regime that got all this started, that eded they have been able to start selling some of their oil. their asian buyers in particular, china, south korea japan, have been aggressive in buying the iranian grade of crude oil. they're favorable toward it. they're going to continue to be aggressive and stunep up to buy the oil. this is going to have another tremendous downward push for oil prices once it becomes realized that this oil is going to get sold fairly rapidly and i think today marks the end, or near the
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end of this coalition in the coming months because it's over if the congress submarines this deal. i think the rest of the world is going to move on without us and normalize relations with iran. >> okay. dennis, we had just been seeing more discussion, coverage of people going long oil again as you heard from john are we now going to interrupt that trend and see another downward push in prices here? >> well i think kelly, what we may end up seeing is for the next month or two before june when we are supposed to sign this agreement, the sanction shall be lifted you may get strength in the crude oil market and may actually see may wti get strong relative to the back months which is unusual in the present environment. because there's still going to be a huge amount of crude oil coming out once we get past june, you're going to see new lows of crude oil because the iranians are going to be extraordinarily aggressive in selling. they have no choice. the saudis clearly are not going to like this. they're going to make certain that they defend their market share. they're going to put crude oil
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pressure on crude oil prices. but between now and june you may actually see the front month's wti strengthen up simply because it knows the market will know there will be plenty of crude after june. there may be less supply before june. that may well be the interesting circumstance. >> john what has kept the price up, anyway? even as we know, there's a glut of oil out there right now. >> well, when you get a mix of headlines that have saudi arabia and oil and saudis running together and strait of hormuz concern, that gets a lot of casual observers trying to trade on event risk type of situation. we saw a lot of the premium coming out of the market bill as quickly when you realize shat saudi production is way far away from the conflict and there's plenty of naval assets out there to keep the strait of hormuz and the suez canal, excuse me open. but also i would point out, and to dennis' point, we're going to start to see strength in u.s. oil demand and the gasoline
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demand has been strong. this week's report showed us 9 million barrels per day of consumption, that's relatively high. i think you're seeing a response at the pump to the relatively cheap prices. >> real quickly, dennis, before we go if this deal falls apart, does that mean oil prices start to move back up? >> it's possible, kelly. that certainly could be a circumstance that would prevail. the only trade i see out there, i'll talk about this before and talk about it again, i think you want to own tankers. i'm not sure whether i want to be long of crude oil, short of crude oil, spread of crude oil. i know a lot of crude oil is going to be out there going into storage, filling up in cushing and the gulf and if you take a look at tanker stocks it's been one of the strongest areas of any stock market in the world. that's the only thing i'm certain of at this point. >> all right. good to see you guys both. thanks. have a good long weekend. >> thank you. >> good holiday. >> thank you for having us. >> 30 minutes to go here. the whoop-whoops you're hearing behind us to mark the fact we
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have a long weekend coming up we're going to squeeze in a jobs report tomorrow morning. markets will close here for 30 minutes and not re-open until monday. with tlathat said, we're seeing gains a third of a percent. the dow and the nasdaq just barely positive. up next, a story we've been following this week. mcdonald's joining the bandwagon of companies raising hourly wages. is the fast food giant doing enough? kate rogers has details on the mcdonald's plans plus the pros will hash it out when we come back. score, thanks to all the tools and help on experian.com. so how are we going to sweeten this deal? floor mats... clear coats... >>you're getting warmer... leather seats... >>and this... my wife bought me that. get your credit swagger on. become a member of experian credit tracker and find out your fico score powered by experian. fico scores are used in 90% of credit decisions. in new york state, we're reinventing how we do business so businesses can reinvent the world. from pharmaceuticals to 3d prototyping,
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generally a positive day, but let's face it quiet day as we get ready for the jobs number tomorrow morning. the dow up 59 points right now. the s&p up six and the nasdaq up about four points right now. >> there's a look at the dow heat map. we've seen the s&p already. >> yes, we have. >> now here's a look. we have about six names in the red today. they include goldman, microsoft, mcdonald's which we're going to focus in on in a second. the outperformers. it's a mixed bag. home depot, utx as mentioned, some of the stronger players today. >> mcdonald's announcing plans to raise the minimum wage for workers at restaurants it owns directly. >> kate rogers join us with the details. hi, kate. >> reporter: hi, kelly and bill.
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that's right. mcdonald's moved to raise its minimum wage to an average of $10 an hour by the end of 2016, they join the ranks of target walmart, t.j.maxx and the gap in raising the minimum wage. for some people it's not enough. here's why. the wage hike only applies to mcdonald's corporate locations which are 10% of its more than 14,000 stores across the country. the remaining 90% are owned by independent franchisees who are able to set their own wage rates. fast food protesters think this move is not enough. the fight for $15 movement which kicked off in 2012 targeted mcdonald's over the last several years. protests picked up again in select cities across the country. mcdonald's new president and ceo says this is just one of his first moves as a new leader and that the company is going to continue to evaluate wages and benefits for its workers going forward. kelly and bill back over to you. >> kate, thank you very much. mcdomdnaldcdonald's workers say the new wage hikes aren't enough.
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higher wages are good for some but others will face job loss. >> let's talk about it. kendall is back with us organizing director for the fight for $15. michael salzman is research director at the employment policies institute. good to see both of you. kendall, i'm going to bet you're going to say this is not enough. >> let's look at the facts here. fact number one is the only reason mcdonald's raised the wages is because mcdonald's workers have gone on strike the last few years. point number two i would say is 10% of the workers are affected so that's over 650,000 mcdonald's workers here in the u.s. that will not receive a raise. 1.6 million around the world that will not receive a raise. point number three i would say is there's still a billion dollar price tag that taxpayers are picking up because mcdonald's is forcing their employees on to public assistance. americans are saying that's unreasonable at this point. >> kendall, the new ceo steve easterbrook took full-page ads out in the newspaper today saying i'm a new ceo, a new
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mcdonald's, a new culture, i'm doing wage hikes, we're going to offer education assistance. do you believe he's going to move the company in the kind of direction you'd like to see it or do you think it's all just talk? >> i think it's a pr stunt. what he needs to do is sit down with brooks who i met a couple weeks ago who works at a corporate mcdonald's. she makes $7.25. now she's going to make $8.25. still not be able to feed her kids and clothe them and keep a roof over their head. >> michael, what do you make of this? >> well, i mean i think the seiu would know a thing or two about a pr stunt. they've spent the last couple years plowing tens of millions of dollars into orchestrating this faux grassroots pr campaign. it's essentially designed to demonize restaurants. i mean, the only thing that's going to be enough for the seiu is when mcdonald's employees are dues paying members of the seiu. the fact we're asking this question isn't enough is indicative of how far off base we are in this conversation. there's a company like mcdonald's creating jobs that decided to raise wages. they're doing actually real
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things to help the employees. meanwhile, people like the seiu they're passing unworkable mandates in cities like oakland and san francisco, we're seeing that they have real consequences for small businesses. so i think it's keep ofind of ridiculous to sit here and listen to kendall claiming he's trying to help people out. he's trying to get more union dues. >> ouch. kendall? >> the facts speak for themselves. we can sit here and uponpontifficatepontificate. if you talk to adriana alvarez who works at mcdonald's in illinois, she can't survive. if you talk to nancy selgato, a mcdonald's worker in chicago, she would be on state assistance. >> what about his charges that you're spending too much on these efforts? how much is it costing you? >> what this is about is a $1 billion price tag that taxpayers are picking up because mcdonald's is forcing their employees on to public assistance. >> kendall -- >> we can sit here and go back
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and forth -- >> one at a time. >> we can sit here and go back and forth about the reality of the situation is fast food workers are headed into the biggest mobilization of low-wage workers in u.s. history and they're changing the conversation in this country. >> okay. >> you need to explain -- >> hang on a second. before you guys are picking on each other on this whole thing and making this personal, let me ask you, michael, this is only going to be applicable, this wage increase to 1,500 stores out of the 14,000 that exist in the united states. for mcdonald's. so, i mean just looking at that number by itself isn't this more of a pr stunt than anything else? do you expect the franchisees is follow the mother ship with this wage increase? >> well i think they can depending on the market that they're in. if a franchisee looks around and makes a decision the corporate level made based on our market we can raise prices enough to offset this. i think may may do it. the fact of the matter is the kind of $15 mandate that the seiu is seeking really isn't
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workable. i'd like someone like kendall felds to sit here and explain to people how an independent operator is supposed to absorb a 60% increase in labor cost and not lose business, not cut staffing levels, not have to aut mate the kinds of jobs that used to be done by employees. that is going to have a direct negative impact on the exact people he claims he needs to help. >> let me ask it this way. we know how negotiations work kendall. you're calling for $15. will you accept $10? that's more than you're getting now. >> ever since the beginning of the campaign the workers had two demands, $is a15 an hour and right to form a union without retaliation from their employer. >> nstthere's no room for compromise? >> it's no room for compromise. what's clear workers going on strike the last two years forced the hand of mcdonald's. mcdonald's said they could not raise wages for any employees and would not. we have 90,000 employees,
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mmc mcdonald oes's employees getting $1 wage. it's meager. they know for sure they're going to win because they pushed the second largest private employer in the world into doing something they didn't want to do. those are the facts. >> thank you both. i assume you're not going to meet for lunch any time soon. >> i'm always open for lunch, man. >> maybe at mcdonald's. time for a cnbc news update with sue herrera. >> iran and the western world powers reached a framework agreement on cushing iran's nuclear program. that will allow further negotiations toward a final agreement. it will include limits on iran's enrichment of uranium for ten years. president obama commented from the rose garden. >> the united states together with our allies and partners has reached a historic understanding with iran. which if fully implemented will prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon. gunmen from the islamic
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militant group al shabab stormed a kenyan university campus killing 147 people. police and soldiers surrounded that university exchanging gunfire throughout the day. the gunmen were also holding christian hostages inside. the u.s. strongly condemned that attack offering its assistance. a french prosecutor says investigators identified body parts from all 150 people on board a germanwings jet that crashed into the french alps. he also said the second black box was found damaged but possibly usable. and new jersey senator robert menendez has entered a in the guilty plea a day after indicted on corruption charges. he entered the pleas in front of a federal judge in newark. yesterday menendez said he will be vindicated and he's not going anywhere anywhere. that is your cnbcs news update this hour. back to you, billy -- bill and kelly. or billy. either one. >> thank you, suze. >> you're welcome. the dow is up 70 points as we
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head to the close. still to come mohamed el-erian talking jobs the treasury, stocks and whole lot more. "closing bell" is back in two. [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops. so open an account with schwab. and when a market move affects, say a cloud computing stock you're holding, we can help you decide what to do. with tools that help you see how market activity is affecting your positions. so when the time comes to decide whether to scale in or scale out... you can make your move wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪ ♪
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markets strengthening into the close. i haven't looked at the numbers. that might be the high of the day i think. >> got to be pretty close to it. >> s&p's up nine. how much, joe? we were up 117 points at one time. that must have been when i was coming down here. >> there you go. >> nasdaq up 12. >> dominic keeping an eye on movers in the final hours of the trading week. hi, dom? >> we're watching shares of the auto dealers on move higher today. that's after car max reported strong earnings on the heels of better used car sales as well as stronger markets for used cars as well. auto nation also improved better than anticipated sales. both stocks at one point hit all-time highs in trading. took a sharp drop in midday trading. the radio and communications was unable to find a buyer for itself after contacting possible strategic as well as private equity equity candidates according to a report from bloomberg citing sources with knowledge of the matter. a bit of a late day spike.
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after a reuters report that the computer services giant has hired bankers to formulate possible defenses against potential activists investors and that some top shareholders are seeking help from activists investors to help turn things around at the company. this according to people familiar. ibm did respond in the report by saying it continues to manage for the long term and it executing on its strategy kelly, bill. back over to you guys. >> all right. >> thank you very much. let me just say we've had a lot of questions on twitter, what's with the pins and all that? today is world autism awareness day. april is autism awareness month. and our old boss bob wright former chairman and ce oo of nbc universal, co-founder of autism speak, will ring the bell. >> we have 12 minutes to go here into the close. as bill mentioned markets now up 90, getting closer to the highs of the day. >> and as you were saying that just signaled $300 million to buy. is to the upside as we have a
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few minutes here. how will stocks cap off this holiday shortened week? take a closer look coming in just a second here. mohamed el-erian joining kelly in the next hour of "the closing bell." stay tuned. don't just visit new york. visit tripadvisor new york. with millions of reviews and the best hotel prices... book your next trip at tripadvisor.com today.
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now i can talk. the dow is up 81 points as we head toward the close. as we were saying. and the buying side art cashman was pointing out, the s&p up nine and the nasdaq up 13. certainly certainly hoping to see bob wright. i hope i run into him. >> joining us now, independent investment consultant, david, and austin graham. welcome to you both. david, we got -- it's a weird thursday for people to trade, right? do you want to get exposed, put on positions before or around that jobs number? or just wait until monday when the dust settles? >> kelly i think the week has had china a little bit better pmi. europe purchasing managers index. a little bit better.
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nontear monetary is good. housing is good. the thing that hasn't happened we led the horse to water but he or she is is not drinking. personal consumption was up. .1. retail sales were down .6. the latest report. so i don't think there's any rush. you got to basically look people in the eye on these corporate earnings reports, and you not only want to hear them talk about the dollar and oil, you want to hear these ceos and cfos talk about capital expenditures. are they going to lift those as the year goes on? that's going to determine how the market responds. >> austin are you generally buying at these levels or waiting -- >> i think the market is obviously handcuffed at the moment. that's evidenced by the last two days of activity. i think the market today is tell you they're anticipateing a better number tomorrow. if you couple that with the jobless claims today, a little resolution in the talks with iran. i think the market is telling you -- >> does that mean good news is good news? because in the good old days we might have had a market sell off
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in anticipation of a tighter fed response. >> that's right. i do. i think it is good news is good news. i think if we get -- i don't think you'll see a lot of activity obviously tomorrow, but even into monday we have an okay employment number i think you're going to continue to see this market trend higher. >> bill and kelly, something happened this past month of march that's only happened nine times in the last 30 years in the oil market. march closed 10% above its low. the last nine times that's happened in a month, six months later, oil's up 15%. a year later, oil is up 52%. >> wow. >> so you want to buy oil? >> you want to buy oil. >> really? >> iran agreement news will drive oil down. buy oil. >> long-term investment. some of these oil names, bigger ones aren't that beaten down relative to where they were when oil was 20 bucks higher. >> they make money, kelly, as you pointed out, week after week they make money on the low oil price on the refining part of it. they make money on that. >> just how minimal the reaction
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is of oil after the news broke of the deal being reached. >> actually it went up. as the news came out. >> that's pretty telling. at the end of the day. >> interesting. stay right there. we're going to come back with these two jebtgentlemen. the dow up 83 points. after the bell mohamed el-erian tells us what to expect from the jobs report tomorrow. we're also going to talk through the treasury markets. such low levels and a whole lot more. you're watching cnbc's first in business worldwide. termined to create new york city's first self-serve frozen yogurt franchise. and now you have 42 locations. the more i put into my business the more i get out of it. like 5x your rewards when you make select business purchases with your ink plus card from chase. and with ink, i choose how to redeem my points for things like cash or travel. how's the fro-yo? just peachy...literally. ink from chase. so you can.
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about three minutes left. this is the oil markets today. this is u.s. oil. wti. and when word got out -- we'd been hearing there was going to be an agreement announced and oil was generally moving lower, it hit a bottom before 2:00 eastern time today. just above $48 a barrel. then as the news actually came out and we heard from the president of iran, then we heard from secretary of state kerry, we heard from the president, himself, price went up. interestingly. came off those lows. finished down 59 cents. we're trading at $49.50 right now. as for the stock market today, pretty quiet. i think it's pretty clear they're waiting for that jobs number tomorrow morning. the dow is up 85 points. as we go into the close here. the expectations are for a jobs increase for march of about 240,000, 245,000 jobs for the
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month. david, austin graham still with us. i didn't hear from you. do you want to buy oil at this level? or oil stocks? >> iminimum, given the iranian news, you found yourself a nice trading range you can certainly buy oil here. >> what are you expecting on jobs? >> going there bill 225,000 jobs is a little gain, however oil, buy some master limited partnerships. they're flat for the year. down 7% for the year. and if oil starts to lift be selective and stay with them midstream. that's where you're going it get yield and price appreciation. >> okay. where else are you going to make money in the second quarter? >> i think the market is telling you you're going to have a good jobs report. that will be the first step of more encouraging economic news. i'm an employer, we like transportation stocks in that rebuild. we like residential home building as well. >> it's contrarian to light transports. they've been getting slammed here recently. >> because of the high dollar
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and weak economic picture? we're a little contrary to that. we belief thoseve those two sectors will benefit well. >> you see value? . health care? >> health care bill, you can buy. it's been beaten down. >> biotech specialespecially. >> it's indicative of slowing the ism, slowing economy. our imports were down 4%. the trade balance looked good. it was more the imports being down. slow weather related as hurt the transports. buy europe buy japan. we've said it week after week. they're both up 15% and 20% respectively in dollars. >> do you care when the fed starts to raise rates? >> i really don't. we're actually premature on that as well. >> you expect a june rise? >> that's factored in already. >> you don't think the market responds much when they start to raise rates? >> it's going to be three, four, five hikes in before the market really begins to take notices. >> all right. thank you, both. have a great holiday weekend. >> happy easter happy passover
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week. >> and to everybody out there as well. going out on a gain of 77 points. tomorrow morning 8:30 a.m. eastern time cnbc with a special report on that jobs number when it comes out. right now, the closing bell. our old boss, bob wright. he'll be with kelly coming up here along with mohamed el-erian on the second hour of "closing bell" with kelly evans. have a good weekend, everybody. >> thank you, bill. welcome to "the closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans. we're already closing the week out here. a new month as april begins. we have the big jobs report coming out tomorrow morning. ahead of that, stocks having a decent day. the dow up. 117 points. going out with gain of 63 into the close. better than a third of a percent. same for the s&p 500. broad market index adding seven points today. the nasdaq struggling a little bit.
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only up about six points. better than a tenth of a percent. 44.86 is well above the close that we did see one month today. joining today's panel to talk about that moves in oil and so much more, michael santoli from yahoo! finance, david from jeffries and our very own tom fort t. tim seymour. this was the market anticipating a strong jobs number. you think that's right? >> i think taking back bets it's going to be a weak number. i don't think the treasury market is necessarily positioned for a very strong number tomorrow. a squaring up type action. the s&p 500, that's exactly the level the chart folks were looking at because it's the uptrend from october. it's basically let's get back to a neutral state and see what the number gives us. >> what do you think the deal was? oil and the iran deal or surprised some have been saying at the lack of response frankly
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in the oil price to this? >> a think a lot of the price action in the last week has been mostly about position squaring at quarter end. so we're going to learn a lot on tuesday. everybody's back. new positions go on. new fiscal year in japan. lot of new things to think about. it's hard to read a lot into price action for me. this past week. because you've had such big moves in the dollar. >> what about interest rates? >> such big moves in european stocks. >> we started out obviously focused on stocks. you have to look another whatt what happened in interest rates after the disappointing manufacturing report yesterday morning, that was a big move. >> last week we had these periods where the stock market was going down and the bond market was going down. >> right. >> it was confusing everybody. >> right. >> so, again i think reading too much into it might be a mistake. i think this is a lot of what you were talking about. position squaring quarter end. >> fair enough. john, what signals are you gleaning out there in this market? >> not a lot. it's kind of a week where things are bumping around. today we didn't have a triple-digit move on the dow. next week not a lot of
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significant earnings. week after that we've got things like intel. i think the data is important. that's why people are anticipating tomorrow so much. it's a little bit of a bummer i guess that most people are going to be off. the traders are going to be off during that day. you can clearly expect that to fuel whatever story people are telling, heading into next week. as the trading starts then. >> tim seymour, are you going to trade the number tomorrow? >> i'm going to be hiding easter eggs, kelly. what can i tell you? i tell you what, i think the market is going to be prepared for a number that's somewhere up the middle here frankly. i think when people were talking about the number mike talked about on the weaker side other guys on the stronger side. if you look at the long end of the curve, we're probably 35 off of what is the recent top. i think we'll probably trade up to there. i don't think you jump in and trade the number tomorrow. i think what you're seeing in markets a lot of reversion trades are what people are putting on. the euro was oversold no matter what you say, even if you think fundamentally we're moving higher on dollar. emerging markets today.
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out-performance over the last couple days. people are getting comfortable with the fed and possibly a june move which i think they have to two do. therefore i don't know that tomorrow's number is going to be as poshtsimportant as people think. >> i'm wondering about wages. this came up last hour. people saying because of what's happening in emerging markets, people going overseas for the labor force. at the same time you have walmart and mcdonald's raising rages for the lowest end workers when unemployment hit the levels in the past. you've are they doing that because they feel pressure -- >> i feel like there's a drum roll over to david. what say ye? >> if you think about the move in the dollar index which has been spectacular in the last year, well over 10%, more like 15%, and what we've seen against the euro and some of the other even asia currencies our wages have actually gone up a lot. >> well, okay. if you're buying like you
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know, goods in australia or something. >> same job, move it to singapore. same job, move it -- >> it doesn't matter if i'm not buying anything in singapore. if i'm sitting -- a company, fine -- >> a company deciding should i hire dave in new york or hire somebody that looks like dave in singapore? >> do you think that's why our job growth has -- >> taller and shorter, probably. >> -- continued to surprise up to upside? is that what you're saying is. >> that's why wages confound us in terms of in this part of business cycle why are we not seeing that upswing? we're getting the dollar strength. i tie a lot of everything that's going on to me centers on dollar. >> you're saying the opposite of what i thought. you're saying because the u.s. dollar is stronger companies are choosing to hire overseas instead? >> we look expensive. our capital look expensive. our labor looks expensive. why is the dax up 15% and the s&p is unchanged? >> suspectisn't there a countereffect,
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business has been relatively stronger. if you're going to put service workers somewhere, you're going to do it here? >> again, i think that's fair. we've been on the strong path for five years. things have gone pretty well. we haven't seen a lot of wage gains. you're starting to see the qe come into europe. what we learned with that in five years in the u.s. is that's pretty good news from a growth perspective. so where am i going to go make my next investment? in the place with a tail wind. >> purchasing power of those same dollars has gone up if you buy imported stuff. >> absolutely. >> it doesn't feel like it, but if you're a walmart and -- >> why are we buying imported stuff? you saw the numbers this morning, the trade number as rick was talking about. the import number was terrible. >> the prices of it are down. it was largely energy. >> i tell you what kelly, the models the fed uses and most of wall street uses has very long lags between the moves in the exchange rate and moves in net exports. >> tim seymour? >> if you look at the labor market, two best quarters of job growth since march of 2000.
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to say the labor market isn't changing and the slack is starting to disappear is to not be looking at the numbers. the u6 number is probably going to be below 10% by the third quarter this year so i think what walmart and mccdonald's are doing is public relations and goodwill but also a necessary element of what's going on. the job market is getting tighter. the impact of lower energy prices is not something you see overnight. people are complaining about the consumer. there is a lag effect. one of the things you're seeing is the consumer has more buying power. so far things are not necessarily better. to say -- >> let me ask you, though, if they were doing this because fundamentally the outlook for the economy is better, why do shares keep selling off every time they announce wage hikes? >> you're talking about companies having trouble growing and people whose top line as grown. expense load these are companies who are probably not in a very good position to weather higher wages whereas the companies and the businesses that are having high growth in this country are placing that are low labor force, high
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efficiency businesses. the internet technology. these are places where the labor force is not as required. mcdonald's, walmart, these are companies that people are critical about the top line. to add more margin pressure to what's going on makes sense to fe. >> john, at the same time to tim's point, reading somewhere about snapchat paying new college grads half a million dollars in salary or something. if we're seeingny kind of wage pressure, it's certainly there. >> they say all politics is local. the economy is really local, too. when you're looking at either in silicon valley or in southern california where snapchat is when you're hiring engineers and there's a restricted pool of people with kind of skills in mobile software development that you want, absolutely. you're going to find a booming mark there. >> mike, do you think -- just to bring this back to the investor as well, i'm in a situation where i see some companies doing wage hikes. maybe because it's better demand. who do i buy? i mean do i go with these guys? >> honestly -- >> or do i stay away? >> the market has gotten to the domestic guys consumer
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beneficiaries. if you're looking at the housing, restaurants, hotels they had their move. i don't know if that was fully understood or priced in or not but those are the obvious ones. >> the home builders have had a good run here. there's not been a hot of focus on the housing market. it's had surprising numbers to the upside. anecdotely, there's a lot of discussion about remodeling buying new homes from people my age. are we seeing this finally come through or no? >> i think we're going to see a switch from that sort of foreign buyer high-end market that's driving part of the property market for the last five years and the guy that just got 200 bucks in his pocket every month because he's not filling up his tank at the same cost he was before. so, to me the bottom end, and the sort of builder world where it's kind of the churn them and burn them out in the west kind of trade, i think that's actually a great trade going into the next couple years. >> i line the sound of that. reminds me of the sell main street -- >> it's a good thesis because
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this is finally the time where we've gotten an ease working for the bottom end, vis-a-vis a stronger dollar. >> tim, where do you see it most attractive now? >> follow the places that seem to be looking. look at the weaker dollar trades. these are ones where i think we have a window. i don't think this goes on forever. some of the miners, material names, emerging markets. brazil has been on fire. i look for relative value here. this is stuff we're going to talk about on "fast money." >> highly contentious. looking forward to that. thank you, tim. more coming up from him and the "fast money" crew at 5:00. they're going to talk to the chairman of biogen and if that run is over. don't miss it. ahead, investors bracing for tomorrow's report. can the fed change the strategy if the data disappoints? we're going to talk about that next. also kraft charged with manipulating wheat prices. where's the outrage when wall
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street firms are accused of this kind of wrongdoing? we're going to talk about that also coming up on "the closing bell." you're watching cnbc. first in business worldwide. let's hear it. [ male announcer ] see how schwab can help light a way forward. so you can make your move wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪ ♪ let me talk to you about retirement. a 401(k) is the most sound way to go. let's talk asset allocation. sure. you seem knowledgeable professional. would you trust me as your financial advisor? i would. i would indeed. well, let's be clear here. i'm actually a dj. [ dance music plays ] [laughs] no way! i have no financial experience at all. that really is you? if they're not a cfp pro you just don't know. find a certified financial planner professional who's thoroughly vetted at letsmakeaplan.org. cfp -- work with the highest standard.
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well investors took a wait and see approach today with the jobs report. less than 24 hours away will the fed change course if the data disappoints? let's ask lindsay from stern ag and matt ferguson from career builder along with our panel. welcome, everybody. lindsay, first to you. i guess the question is, if it disappoints, what would be considered disappointment? >> we're looking for a very modest number. still positive but a significant decline from the plus 300,000 trend that we saw at the end of the last year. remember, even if we do see weakness, i think this is going to be the most interesting point of tomorrow's report where do
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we find that weakness? if we see it primary will in goods-producing payrolls talking about construction manufacturing or trade and transport, it's very likely we see a muted reaction to a disappointing report. dismissing that as an aberration from one-time effects from weather report closures. i do think it will be, continue a continued decline in momentum but the market will look at this as a one-time miss. >> matt, you agree? what's your own view of what we might see tomorrow morning? >> well, i think we're going to see tomorrow morning like we said, we're going to see a little bit of a decline from last month. i do think that we're going to see more wage pressure probably not in this report or even the next two. we talked earlier in your last segment about walmart and mcdonald's. we're hearing from lot from employers. we're seeing a lot of wage pressure. >> where are you seeing that? what kind of wage pressure matt? >> if you look from last year to this year, we're seeing an increase of people who say they're going to increase wages in the second quarter 5% or
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more. that went up to 25%. >> wow. >> significant increase. there's still 27% of employers who said they're not going to increase. that is survey data of more skilled employers. when you look at mcdonald's and walmart who hire a lot of people who are less skilled with their increases. mcdonald's, 10%, walmart going to $10. that's going to have an impact on other people to follow. as you get into the later part of the year more pressure to raise rates because i think income levels are going to be rising. >> david, what's your reaction to that? >> i think -- >> sorry, lindsey, just one sec. dave? >> earlier this week stan fisher, vice chairman of the fed gave a speech. someone asked what does he believe more the gdp data or employment data? he said i don't believe anything about the gdp data. >> wow. >> i think the employment data is basically the holy grail at a higher or medium term frequency. we've seen pretty strong data when to comes to the employment side of the equation. we've seen some spottiness when it comes to gdp and consumption data. i think this is actually a pretty important data piece.
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it's going to confirm whether what we're seeing in this job creation story is real and legitimate, so a number like 270 or 280 -- >> that would be huge. >> could be a very, very important number. i think a miss down below 200 like maybe the adp suggested even though that didn't take into account the public side would be a really big miss. so this is -- this to me is actually a pretty important piece of data. >> sorry, lind dosysey. go ahead and address what he said. are we looking at the jobs number and dismissing the gdp report? >> it comes down to jobs. i don't think the jobs report has been impressive as of late. from the end of the year we were at 325. let's split the difference and say we get 240 as the market expects tomorrow. you're talking about a decline, then 250,000. across the first three months of the year. so a significant loss of momentum. and while the unemployment rate has dropped to 5.5, the committee, the federal reserve open market committee, has done a lot to try to convince the market that they're not just focusing on that civilian
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unemployment rate. because it doesn't convey the true health of the labor market. and instead, they're focused on indicators like the u6 or augmented unemployment rate. as well as the labor force participation rate. so i think they are watching both growth and the labor market but maybe a different level of indicators that we're used to. >> yeah, we got to go matt last question though. another guest just mentioned the broader unemployment rate could be below 10% by the end of the year. do you see if you have any way of gauging it measures of underemployment, if you will coming down? >> i'm sorry, was that to me? >> yeah sorry, matt go ahead. >> yeah. >> measure of underemployment. do you see those falling? do you see positive trends there? >> i would tell you anecdotely talking to employers it's getting harder and harder. in skilled positions, i think in your last segment you talked about hiring engineers in california, how difficult that is. that's true now everywhere. other specialties are coming under pressure. i was talking to somebody about auto technicians. you're seeing it in welders. you're seeing big wage increases
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in both those segments. i'm seeing it in a broader base of the skilled categories. starting to betget into the semi-skilled categories. to your point about the fed, i think they're not going to have the pressure in june to raise rates but it's going to come later in the year. >> we'll wait. see what happens. can't wait for tomorrow morning. thanks for now, guys. have a great long weekend. be sure to tune in to "squawk box's" special coverage beginning at 7:00 a.m. eastern tomorrow morning. the report hits at 8:30. lawmakers are quick to jump down the threats of big banks when they're charged with wrongdoing. how come we haven't heard that kraft manipulated wheat prices? is wall street an easeier punching bag. is the six year bull market in danger? mohamed el-erian is here exclusively to share his thoughts in just a moment. and reach, toes blossoming...
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why do any of it? why do all of it? because if it matters to you it's everything to us. the xc60 crossover. from volvo. lease the well equiped volvo xc60 today. visit your local volvo showroom for details. welcome back. food giant kraft under fire for alleged future trading violations. kate kelly joins us now with the details and to explain, kate what that means for consumers. >> thanks so much kelly. the case deals with the sometimes complex world of commodity hedges which is something that company like kraft sometimes use with futures contracts to lock in more attractive prices for the goods they need in order to make their products. just in case those goods become too expensive in the day-to-day market where they often do business. in this case we're dealing with
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wheat produced on farms around the u.s. as well as around the world to make things like oreos and ritz crackers. kraft typically buys wheat on the everyday or cash market on the u.s. storing up to 5 million bushels of raw wheat at u.s. mills or near them at any given time. this is during the period of question in the lawsuit. kraft also had an option at that time and still does of securing wheat through the futures market which is something it rarely but occasionally did as of again, november 2011 according to the suit. at that time kraft bought a massive position in wheat futures. amounting to 87% of the open interest in the chicago markets. and the move caused daily wheat prices interestingly to fall. which saved kraft money and prices it rise making the company money because it had a wager in the markets. in the end kraft canceled out the majority of its futures contracts raths ss rather than taking physical delivery of the wheat
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and. now, four years later the commission is taking kraft to task for the matter suing both it and its one-time subsidiary now the independent competitor mondelez. mondelez said it's coop rating with the inquiry and will bear the soft associated with the matter, kelly. it's really the first event in a series of legal undertakings here. >> appreciate it, kate. as mentioned this haven't gotten a lot of oxygen. kate kelly back at headquarters. there hasn't been major outrage from main street. why the double standard if there is one, gentlemen? what say ye? >> i think it's because people are going to say, did this make my oreos more expensive? no. okay. >> but guess what when the banks were tinkering with lobor, half the time that kept interest rates lower. that didn't make it okay. >> main street didn't get ticked off about libor, anyway because people had no idea what was going on. >> people got upset with the banks when you had announcement after announcement after years
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of a financial crisis caused by the banks and having pent up animosity against the industry. this is a story that broke today or yesterday. we didn't have an inherent dislike of food companies. they didn't have a there we go again reaction to this. >> again, the wheat market is not -- >> wheat is not in our 401(k)s and doesn't feel like it's at our expense. >> dave? >> i don't know. i imagine that, you know, some congress mon somewhere is going to step up and say something at some point. i mean it is kind of frustrating to see large companies use manipulation whether the hunt brothers back with silver. >> right. >> i think obviously physical commodities like a silver or gold hit home with people a little more than a wheat or soybean. >> especially if they're cornering the market to push the price up. >> yeah. i think you could see it. i would imagine elizabeth warren is probably sniffing around. >> that's the other thing. >> a good thing to proselytize on. >> if this is true they're managing their own cost line on this. it's not as if they really want to raise the long-term price of
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the product. >> a lot of people believe markets are fundamentally rigged. guys come in and talk about that and write books on it. >> pointing the finger about what happens around here, but they made a $5 million trading profit on this. it's not insignificant. >> but from the average person $5 million sounds like a whole heck of a lot of money. >> it's a lot easier to get outraged if you think they're messing with your food or your pocketbook. change the oreos recipe and there will be outrage. >> no more doublestuf? >> we're leaving it right there. double standard. thanks guys. time for a cnbc update. sue herrera. >> iran and the western world powers reached a framework agreement on cushing iran's nuclear program for at least a decade. this after eight days of marathon talks in switzerland. president obama called it a historic deal and secretary of state john kerry was just as optimistic. >> accept a good deal and today
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i can tell you that the political understanding with details that we have reached is a solid foundation for the good deal that we are seeking. >> the department of justice announcing seven people have been charged in a boeing kickback scheme related to government contracts for satellites. we'll have more details as they become available to us. a heavy sandstorm, look at that plagued dubai today. flights in the region have been affected leaving many passengers stranded. sandstorms are common but rarely as strong as the current one. it is expected to last until the weekend. and firefighters are battling a huge fire in brazil which broke out in fuel tanks in an industrial area. 80 firefighters are fighting the blasz. no word on what caused the fire. that's the news update at this hour. >> sue herera thank you very much. u.s. and iran reaching a
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framework for a nuclear deal. president obama says it block iran's pathway to a nuclear bomb. my next guest says this is a bad deal for the u.s. and for the world. republican congressman ron desantis joins me straight ahead. guaranteed. did you see it? in one second, he made a trade we looked for the best price and the trade went through. do the other guys guarantee that? didn't think so. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. ♪ i am never getting married. we're never having kids. mmm-mmm. we are never moving to the suburbs. we are never having another kid. i'm pregnant. i am never letting go. for all the nevers in life state farm is there. don't just visit new york. visit tripadvisor new york. with millions of reviews and the best hotel prices... book your next trip at tripadvisor.com
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today.
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welcome back. big news today. with iran. as agreements are made on key parameters of the nuclear agreement. recently republican congressman ron desantis of florida sent a letter saying iran negotiations are troubling, unquote. ron desantis joins us now with offer his reaction to today's agreement with iran. congressman, is this a bad deal? >> well thanks for having me on. i think it's noteworthy to hear how iran is trumpeting this deal and they're basically trumpeting it as a victory. they got what they wanted. they wanted sanctions relief and wanted to keep their nuclear program. they didn't want to have to choose between the two. so i think this is going to be met with a chilly reception in congress. sharfi the iranian negotiator was bragging about the fact the sanction relief is essentially front loaded that if iran complies on the first day then the sanctions will start to be removed. i think that's troubling because
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you're removing your leverage for this regime to do what they said they would do. i think we have no reason to want to trust them. >> president obama actually explicitly addressed that saying this deal isn't about trust. it's ultimately about verification with some of the strongest verification standards we've seen. i guess come out of bunone of these agreements. does that give you comfort about what happens in the years ahead? >> not really. if you looked at the agreement, i just read the outline, you're talking about converting say the facility into a nuclear research facility. what does that even mean? i think there are a lot of question marks about what even is in the deal, but yes, i don't have confidence you're going to have robust verification. iran has cheated in the past. so i think congress is going to have a huge number of questions. and i think that there's going to be a desire to want to weigh in on this. >> and congressman, the ultimate outcome or goal i suppose, is being a little bit lost in these discussions. i mean what do you think our relationship with iran is or is
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supposed to be about? if we even should have one in your view? >> the most important issue at stake here is that iran which is a regime that is based on militant islam that they cannot have a nuclear weapon. you cannot mix that ideology with nuclear weapons, and i think that's the case tomorrow. i think that's the case next year. and i also think that's the case ten years from now. when you set up a system in which the sanctions will disappear after a ten-year period, even if you assume that the verification measures are going to work even if you assume all that? guess what at a ten-year period, iran would be free and clear to go ahead and take their existing nuclear program and start to create nuclear weapons and that is very very concerning. >> bringing in the panel here. >> congressman, it's jon fortt. so what's the alternative here? is it to bomb them and bomb the facilities and set them back a certain degree and take diplomacy off the table? is it to just try to put such onerous sanctions on, further
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sanctions that the country's economy completely collapses or do you think diplomacy could be done better? what is the alternative? >> the alternative to a bad deal is a better deal. we made a mistake from the very -- >> how do you get it? >> -- beginning in providing billions of dollars of sanctions relief because iran was hurting at the seem. that's the time you want to be stronger on the front because it's forcing them to produce concession concessions. we sent a signal we want a deal above anything else. iran was able to get a lot of concession. i'd walk away from this deal. you have people across the political spectrum recommend this. howard dean was recommending this. to go to a more coercive form of diplomacy, you're ratcheting up the sanctions imposing that. that's really the only chance you would have to have diplomacy work. if you go and -- think you're going to have a good faith gesture with iran, that's not going to cut it. >> you think u.s. should play
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bad cop with the allies at the negotiating table rather than say we're going to give you a chance and let you mess up a little if you're going to mess up then put further sanctions on you? >> look, i think that if you want iran to force them to make a choice between nuclear program or sanctions relief you're going to have to mobilize your ally, and impose tougher sanctions. i think that that's been clear from the beginning. and i think that's where you'll see most members of congress come down after reviewing this deal. >> mike, can you just put this into perspective for us? we've seen oil move around a little bit today. there are some saying now this means the price of brent is going to come down. ult patimately where does it leave us? >> more on the defensive when to comes to oil price. think the deal was handicapped enough, the market was expecting something like this. now the assumption is lots of new supply we haven't calculated is sfwoing togoing to come on the market. obviously it's oil price. >> in the months ahead, congressman, june is when we work at the specifics.
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as the president said the specifics matter. everything will hang on whether there's an agreement on these specifics or not. is that where we could see this all fall apart in your view? what needs to happen come june for you to be satisfied with this deal? >> well i tell you, i mean the deadlines keep changing. so yes, there's obviously got to be a lot of information about the specifics. i mentioned the reactor. what does that mean that you're going to have nuclear research there? i think there's going to be a lot of questions with each point if this deal. so it will be interesting to see. i would urge the administration to be transparent, come to congress, explain this so that the american people are able to scrutinize it. >> and that we will. thank you so much representative ron desantis of florida this afternoon with your thoughts. >> thank you. >> have a good weekend. up next mohamed el-erian tells us whether he thinks the market faces a huge selloff once the fed raises interest rates. coming up as well former nbc universal chairman and autism speaks co-founder bob wright
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welcome back. that first quarter was a volatile one. that's expected to keep up until the fed decides to make its move on interest rates. what do we do with the volatilities? we're going to ask our next guest. joining me in a cnbc exclusive, mohamed el-erian chief economic adviser for allianz. welcome. good to see you.
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>> good to see you, kelly. >> what do you recommend people do? is it going to be more volatile volatilely? how much does the fed rate hike matter? when do you think it happens? >> there will be more. we have the fed which will hike at or by the december meeting versus the ecb which is going to loosen even more. but also the fundamentals are in motion. so investors should expect a lot more volatility and should expect more of what they saw in the first quarter which is the beta trade in u.s. equities not going to be as satisfying as it has been in the past. >> that means, mohamed, basically when people are looking at momentum names, momentum plays when they got better returns than the broad index, maybe you're saying it's the broad index that people should focus in on? >> no i'm saying be very careful in terms of buying the index. instead, select names. what are you looking for? first, you're looking for names that are going to be involved in some corporate action. there's lots of cash on the
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sideline. second, are specific names that are getting a lot of traction from growth. and thirdly, look to europe. europe is going to continue to benefitqe trade. be careful of the exposure because we should expect the dollar to get stronger. >> bringing in the panel in a second. a real quick question before we go do on all of this. rates. are you surprised the ten year is as low? >> it's there for two reasons. one, the economy isn't taking off. two, there's the downward drag from europe where qe is powerful, given how much they're going to buy relative to what's available. it's being held down by economic and policy issues. that's why i don't think you're going to see a major disruption when the fed starts moving at or by september. >> okay. >> hi mohamed it's david. how are you? >> good how are you?
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>> the dollar it's been one of the biggest moves we've seen in the dollar in decades. it's up there in the top six if you look at the dollar index since the '80s. i'm wondering if there's a level in the dollar you think will ult patly trigger some kind of backlash in washington? if the dollar were to go up to, say, 1.10 or 1.15 on the dollar index, we'd see a material slowdown in industries that have exposure to trade. it's starting to filter through some of the negotiations. the tpp is becoming a little bit more questionable and a number of other trade negotiationing ings starting to get strained. i'd imagine there's a political ramification of that quick of a dollar rise. in that sense, maybe we have a dollar pause for a little while, and anyone we get something further down the road to kind of go down that -- >> how high is too high, mohamed, for the dollar index? >> david is absolutelyfact the dollar is the only currency willing and able to
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appreciate. everything else is worried about the currencies being too strong. what's interesting is we haven't triggered yet talk in washington about the currency war. why? two reasons. one is u.s. economy is doing relatively well, and second it's become a spaghetti bowl david and kelly, of interactions. the u.s. interacts as a producer and as a consumer so you no longer get the lobbyies you had in the past. you need a much bigger movement of the type david has just spoke about to get a political reaction. and until then the dollar will continue to strengthen and continue to be a headwind for certain corporate profits. >> mike? >> mohamed, mike santelli. you said you expect the fed will move at or before the september meeting. and yet also the dollar will continue to appreciate. so you think that that hike can happen even if the dollar continues upward? >> i do. i think it happens for a number of reasons. first, and i expect tomorrow's
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labor report to confirm this the economic recovery continues to broaden. secondly, they're not just worried about the dollar. they're also worried about financial excesses. they're worried about boosting asset prices too high too quickly. so i think they will take whatever opportunity they have to normalize. and they're not going to be discouraged by just a dollar. they're going to look at it and in fact it's really interesting how international issues have featured much more in the minutes recently, okay, because i don't think it's the constraining element. the constraining element will be wages. if they don't see wages pick up they won't hike. >> we'll leave it there, mohamed. if people can only read one thing this weekend, what should they read? >> read the analysis of whether the wages are responding to what has been a very strong employment creation in the united states. >> we'll do it. thank you so much mohamed el-erian joining us this afternoon. really appreciate it. have a great weekend. the big jobs report due out at
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8:30 tomorrow morning. today is also world autism awareness day. we're all wearing blue. up next autism speaks co-founder bob wright is telling us what gains are being made in the fight against this disorder that affects so many americans. stay tuned. we're back in two.
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today is the eighth annual world autism awareness day. what exactly is autism? and how close are we to finding a treatment? meg tirrell joins us with some of the answers. >> autism is a diagnosis encompassed of autism disorder. social and behavioral challenges. while the causes of autism are not known, it's associated with genetic and environmental factors. 3 million americans have thought to have autism. prevalence has been increasing from 1 in 150 kids in the u.s. in 2000 to 1 in 68 kids in 2010. as for treatment the cornerstone is behavioral therapy. of course, not everyone with autism spectrum disorder needs ar or wants treatment. medications are currently limited. johnson & johnson's abilify are approved for symptoms associated with autism but nothing that gets to the core symptoms.
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drug companies have been focusing on genetic drivers of autism from roche to pfizer. work is still in the very early stages. kelly? >> meg, thank you very much. i want to turn to a man who holds autism awareness close to his heart, ringing the closing bell. here joining us at post nine former nbc chairman and autism speaks co-founder bob wright joining us with his grandson mattias who has autism. >> thank you. i'm surprised you're still talking to me. >> before the other fellow alums have a heart attack late april fool's joke you were playing there, bob. thanks very much. changing landscape in the college world. a changing landscape here. it's been ten years since you guys launched. do you think autism is better or less well understood today than it was at that time? >> i think it's much better understood. certainly understood from the point of view of prevalence. i think we managed to get a
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relatively 50% increase of awareness in the united states among key groups. families with children without children, but intend to have children which is really important. younger people actually. and around the world, we've, through the efforts in the u.n. and our ability to work with w.h.o., we brought some of the skills we have to a lot of other countries and got them very active. activity is very important. when you get down to the science, we can tell you that roughly 50% of autistic children probably can be determined on a genetic basis. we don't have a marker to do that. there's 50% that we can't nail down. that's cancers are roughly 70% environmental. and nearly 30% genetic. so i think we're in good territory. we know a lot more about than we didn't. but we didn't know enough and that's why we have this project. and our partners are in canada.
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the province of ontario. a very prominent scientist in his laboratory, are heavily involved in this. and the other partner is google. and google is in the bio inform informatics informatics, enormous cloud. and no university could outright do this at the scale we're at. we've done close to 3,000, on our way to 10. it's a great run. we just opened the scientific portal. and it will be kind of like fresh next week which means scientists from all over the world can come in and see the portal exactly where we are today with the frequency. these scientists have never seen. >> you mentioned that autism is becoming much more common
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prevalent. matthias, you're 11 years old now. do you feel your teachers and friends understand you? >> yes. most, yeah. usually. yeah, they understand that it's a little bit hard to live with a brother that has autism. >> and what's the biggest challenge you guys face? >> probably that just you know he can't talk. he can't speak. he can't really do stuff on command that well. so yeah. it's mostly that. >> and what bob, as you watch them grow up has your opinion changed on how well society is going to be able to deal and provide resources that are needed? >> we know an outline. we have to have a plan. i don't know i can do it all, but yes. there's only 1% of the united states health care spent on direct mental health. can you imagine that? now, there's $2.9 billion a year
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spent on -- 17% gdp. 1% of that is direct mental. so there is a huge opportunity. if you triple that. that's been going on for a long time. it has not been increasing. so we have to move that. and congress has been very receptive. we passed research bills, up to $2 billion that have gone to the nih. so we have a -- we have bipartisan support. we have to get into the brain. >> at the same time, it's jumped into the political foray recently with this whole scandal about vaccinations or lack thereof and how that's become part of the autism discussion. and that's why i asked whether we are increasing or struggling to understand autism as a society. >> it's a lot less of the discussion than it might have been ten years ago. so i would say we have to respect people that have strong feelings on that. and -- but we have to move ahead, and we try to you know
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follow leads on that. that's environmentally oriented the most difficult. but it's not slowing us down from doing this other good work. so in that interview just beforehand, people don't like to work in a spectrum. cancer was a spectrum 70 years ago. and we didn't get anything going with cancer until we started to break down cancers. so we have to work on it. they want to have an array of genetic array, and they want to have phenotypeing. so they can see how does it present itself in that person. and then they go to work to increase -- we have worked with this and worked with that. we have worked with some of these presentation issues and then we're off and running. >> well matthias you have easter plans? what are you doing this weekend? >> i'm going to my aunt's and uncle's house, and we're going to do -- celebrate there. >> that sounds great. i won't keep you guys from it. >> thank you. >> enjoy.
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thanks so much for being here. >> thank you for the courtesy of being here. we really appreciate it. >> matthias and bob wright. >> i didn't even get to talk about net neutrality. >> net neutrality is very much like talking about the iranian nuclear paper. everybody is winner. but nobody can explain their position in detail. >> we'll leave everybody with that analogy. thank you so much. programming note. markets will be closed tomorrow for the good friday holiday so there will be no closing bell. the jobs report due out tomorrow morning. a special edition of "squawk box" at 7:00 a.m. eastern. we'll be back on monday and joining us will be the first woman of digital publishing ariana huffington whose huffington post is about to celebrate its tenth anniversary. we continue right after this.
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welcome back. time now to close this with some final thoughts from our distinguished panel. john, we start with you. >> i think we're at a really interesting neutral point to start the second quarter. we've got earnings coming up this jobs number is big because of that. very similar to where we were a year ago that turned out to be a great year. we'll see. >> dave a lot of people will be focusing in on the oil patch, even in the jobless claim numbers, we started to see claims from those areas creep
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up. >> yeah i think we'll continue to see it. i think everything is resting on the dollar. if the dollar stabilizes maintains a range, emerging markets will do better. oil is going to be okay. those oil patch jobs are not going to get completely slammed. but if the dollar breaks down below 104, we're going to see very poor performance and equities terrible earnings and a storyline that's 100% european in terms of all performances and potentially japanese. >> but so you're saying that if the dollar breaks out toward that -- >> the dollar stronger. we're going to have a really tough year. >> mike? >> well that rule was in place today. so we backed off a little on the dollar. gave clearance for stocks. maybe at some point the linkage loosens up but not yet. >> it's interesting. this is the kind of thing politically people like to talk about, a strong dollar feels good for america, et cetera. but you imagine this is what the fed is wondering about, as well. the lagged effect it will have. >> it's funny, i was at an event
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with bob rubin earlier this week and i asked him, what is the strong dollar policy. and it was very interesting answer. he said the strong dollar policy only exists when we actually have a real fiscal policy. and in the 1997 period trent lott and president clinton signed a balanced budget amendment, and that for him was the strong dollar policy. we don't have anything like that now. >> it always comes back. >> it's just happening. >> it's happening. and it's happening in a way that's probably not going to be pleasant for the equity market. >> thanks to all of you gentlemen. have a great holiday weekend and tune into a special jobs friday edition of "squawk box" tomorrow morning. the game will be covering it all at 8:30. and now it's time for "fast money" with melissa lee and the gang. what's on tap? >> the volatility we have seen in the biotech sector. good to be back. >> straight over to you guys. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. tim seymour david seaburg, karen finerman and guy adami.
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here's what's on the fast track tonight. one area is starting to break out, not in the u.s. we'll show the chart and the sector that is starting to take off. and our call of the day, tesla catching a bid and it's not because of a tweet. so we'll tell you how to play the bullish comments out of one wall street firm. but we start with a developing global story here. oil selling off today on framework for a nuclear deal with iran

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