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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  April 6, 2015 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT

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dow's up 123. obviously the premarket was looking for the market to react with disappointment to friday's job number. some argue the weaker dollar may be something the market's looking forward to. let's get back to headquarters. scott wapner and the half. ♪ >> welcome to the halftime show. let's meet our starting lineup for today. joe is the senior managing director at ver advertise investment partners. john is pete and the co-founders of option monster and steve on the floor of the new york stock exchange. he of course with stewart frankle. golden or broken arches. whether mcdonald's shares should be on your value menu or not. we kickoff a special week of energy coverage today. what is your best move right now following the deal with iran?
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we begin with stocks on the rebound at this hour. wild moves already today as investors react to last week's lousy jobs number. the dollar taking it on the chin as earnings get set to kickoff in a matter of days. what gives? why the reversal? >> first of all, it's a reversal i like and i i believe and said last week that i believe the month of april, in particular the first three weeks will be a favorable one for s&p performance. are we dismissing the jobs report? i think we're really validating the concept that we're one and done in terms of any form of a rate hike. now we can focus on what truly will matter. what will matter most is earnings. the revisions have been weakened so much that the bar to be crossed is not that significant. i think we will cross it and see a very strong equities month. >> you're on the floor.
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center of the action. 50-yard line, whatever you want to say. why the reversal you think? it felt like it was going to be a down day. here we are not even halfway through the day and we're already positive by as much as we were negative. >> it's all about dollar. i think the market is telling us that right now. it's the dollar reaction to the marketplace. that's what oil's move a all about today. you could see energy outperform the s&p. you could see those names specifically the service names could outperform in this market scott. last s&p in the cash, 2092. you want to keep an eye on 2088. that was this last little blip right here. if we fall short of there today, we're right back down to the 100 day. >> pete, more dove issue comments today from one of the fed speakers who can move the
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market clearly. i don't know if that has anything to do with what we're seeing. this bad news of the jobs repor card in the market. did you come in for apt to sell? sgli didn't buy anything unfortunately. at least early on. i would come in any time i see the market down 12 to 15 handles on the s&p 500. we talk about this all the time. when do you get those opportunities? you get them on those pullbacks. if we started up 15, look, i'm looking for opportunities to maybe sell some of this. when you look at energy right now, look at some of those names specifically pointed towards -- first of all, the first quarter that was one of those areas that was a complete lagger. i'd say some of the e&p names. oil volatility and oil itself both center in that 50. oil volatility index under 50,
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again, i would say time to buy that volatility once again. >> it's a good week to have the summit, if you will, that we are going to have over the next four or five days or so. energy's up 5% right now. you're likely going to get more fed speak during the week. what's the trade -- >> the trade is to sell energy when it's up this strong, when it makes this kind of a move, i think you sell it. i'm talking for short-term trades. long term, you already know where i feel. 45 to 60 is my longer term range. that's my range that i look for the market to bounce around in. we've been bouncing around in that range so far this year. when we talked about the fed and what janet yellen was going to say, it ended up playing out exactly as she said. she would once again say she's data dependent even though they removed a keyword here and there. but judge, we're back under 2% for the yield.
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>> moved up to 190 after we were down 183 or so after the jobs report. so we have had a little bit of a reversal in yields. >> if you saw oil continue on this kind of a move, which i think a lot of this was basically just because of iran last week, they got the agreement with iran. people got ahead of themselves. nothing's going to happen obviously until the end of june. even then, 2016 before any real effect is felt from additional quantity coming on the market from iran. where do i think we are? i think, again, the employment data was horrific last week. so certainly that didn't move the fed move up. it pushed it back out to the september/october time frame. we'll be lucky if we even get it then, judge. >> the services number was at least in line. maybe a sigh of relief. now you have a diverse real data read after the jobs report for
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the market to react to. maybe inline gives even a chance to take a deep breath and maybe the economy is not falling off some kind of cliff. >> sure. no one that's actually looking at the data is taking the next step -- >> i think they're real concerned -- wondering as to whether we're about to have a string of negative news. >> it's possible. here's what you need to know. first of all, a lot of what we're seeing right now is counter trend. the reason why it's happening is because the u.s. dollar became the most crowded trade of the univer universe. one-third of every dollar went into some sort of a currency hedging vehicle. this is off the charts in terms of investor behavior. you're seeing the wise guys coming out and putting out these trades and they're working really well. take a look at the eem. up 6.6% over the last week. people are coming around this to
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idea that this are other places to be besides what everyone else is doing. it's not because economies are getting better. it's because people are more willing to take on those risks. look at xop. the energy producers. well, guess what, it's up 8% year-to-date. the russell 3,000 is only up 3%. these are the types of things that are happening right now. i think this is what traders are focused on. and then where is the next opportunity for something that's universally hated as some of this dollar bullishness gets unwou unwound. >> pretty good day as well to have the guy to my right next to me today. dave al bright. new fleet asset management president and chief investment officer. so let's react to the jobs report for the first time. what's your view on what it all mean sns i think it gives the fed a lot more flexibility. they don't have to raise rates any time soon. they've revised down their
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outlook on inflation, on growth. it just gives them a lot more flexibility. i think their tolerance level is very, very low for what to expect in the future. >> now you think they're going to go in september? >> i thought one and done this year. a token increase. there's no fundamental reason for them to raise rates. first quarter is probably going to be sub 1%. if you look at wage growth, precipitation rate's abysmal. the part-time worker. 50% of job creation since '09 came from two states. >> you run a five-star bond fund. what's the best way to invest in bonds given the environment we're in, the scenarios that lie ahead? >> we like leverage finance. we like to take a look at the high yield market and loan market. credit selection is most importance. the default cycle has been pushed out. probably 2018 is where you see
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the maturity window. prior to that with energy at $50 a barrel we'll see defaults probably later this year, early next queer are. being in the right sector is the utmost important. high yield and loans makes a lot of sense. >> did the impact of qe in europe from the end of january until now, the high yield, investment grade over in europe is basically flat in terms of spreads. the u.s. spreads are actually tightening. why is that? and does that continue? >> if i look at -- you're right. exactly. european credit has been flat. you're seen the peripheral yields start to comprescompress. more importantly, you know an excess yield versus europe, i'm going to buy that all day. a hundred billion of investment grade creation and the corporate space per month. the high yield space, a variety of different deals come to
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market also very attractive. the pipeline now is about $140 billion. there's a lot of demand for u.s. credit. when you compare the ten-year atall january treasury, it's 130, why wouldn't you buy the u.s. treasury at 190. >> should people be guying uni bonds? >> i talked about a default april 15th of this month. >> what's that? >> the por toe recan domestic authority. the third largest city in the u.s., detroit being the 14th largest city to compare, they have financial deterioration occurring. they can't get su sessions from the union. we think the ripple effect there will be similar to whitney and the default situation. illinois not in any shape to actually help out chicago if
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they do have volatility. i would not sell what you own because you can't replace the yield. >> you still think, okay, relative to what the fed's going to do, it's one and done this year. does the ten-year yield get to 250? it's a joke to even ask that question. >> i'll call on the ten-year as 175 to 252. people thought it was going to $7 a barrel. then we saw a great retracement. at 190, the bond market is uncertain about economic activity in the u.s. >> no doubt. appreciate it. coming up, lots of moves in stocks today. tesla's new record and more. all the trades just ahead. then we fire up the grill for a heated mcdonald's debate. they take on josh and joe. tweet us with #bull or #bear. how about this? we're going to dig into the hottest topic of the year. our "halftime" energy summit
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kicking off today. a block buster lineup all week long. we have our first ever tv interview in a rare peek inside the strategy of a top tier hedge fund. wednesday, goldman's jeff curry arguably the most respected commodity analyst on the street, he's going to be with us. then john dowd of fidelity. he's been beating 90% of his peers over the past five years. we'll be back right after this. sometimes romantic. there were tears in my eyes. and tears in my eyes. and so many little things that we learned were really the biggest things. through it all, we saved and had a retirement plan. and someone who listened and helped us along the way. because we always knew that someday the future would be the present.
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maybe in honor of our mcdonned's debate, we have a super size blitz coming up for you today. disney investing $250 million in fantasy sports sight draft kings. josh? >> yes, and why wouldn't they? this is where people are spending their time. ripe ground for a company like disney to come in and maybe make this area of kind of fantasy sports even more family friendly than it's already been, inject some excitement. maybe even bring in a more youthful audience. >> no one should be surprised about these supports of activists looking at ibm? >> of course not. i think the financial engineering with ibm has happened already. it's about transforming the
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revenue base. is an activist going to come and do that? i don't know necessarily -- >> we want you to buy back more stock. that's one of the knocks on the company. let's talk about comcast, our parent company, and imax. >> yeah, paul walker, the rock, vin diesel, they just are crushing it. this one did 147 million domestically. another 240 million globally. in other words, already on track to be half a billion in the first week basically. then you take a look at imax. they play into this why? because of course premium. you want to watch it in a blow you away sort of format. >> 22 million bucks globally from imax. >> this and disney's avengers, that will be huge as well. we talked about it on this show,
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march 10th. stock was up 7.5% today. >> yeah, i mentioned comcast of course. it's a universal film. microsoft upgraded to outperform wells, pete? >> this is a stock last week downgraded now all of a sudden we're seeing this upgrade from wells. they're focusing on a lot of the things, they feel some of this is already priced in. you look at the stock, it's moving very nicely today. the focus is actually something they point out in this note. looking for that to be the big positive. it's mobility, it's about the cloud. i like this stock. i continue to think it goes from 45 to 50. >> how about mattel? >> the reasons behind it are incorrect. they're saying the dividend is protected. 6.2%, sixth largest in the s&p. cut the dividend. that will actually make the stock price go down.
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chop it in half, you'll still be in the top third of the s&p. go out and do strong initiatives. get involved in more things. >> tesla delivering a record number of vehicles in the first quarter, josh? >> stock's having its best day in five months. i would say this is a sell of the news top of situation. i would paraphrase that the easter egg looks pretty on the outside, but it's hollow on the inside. they point to the fact that the company itself while giving this vehicle report of over 10,000 deliveries in the first quarter, said do not extrapolate this further into future quarters. i don't like the name. >> weekly call buying in this thing, though, through the roof. 200s, 205s and 210s. >> it's the cult of all cult stocks. >> it is. >> the 210 calls were 40 cents. they went to almost $3 today.
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coming up, mcdonald's recently announcing wage hikes, menu changes. but is now the time to buy the stock? we have a divided desk on the golden arches. plus, it's day one of halftime's energy summit. joining ugs to kickoff our series when we come back. sometimes romantic. there were tears in my eyes. and tears in my eyes. and so many little things that we learned were really the biggest things. through it all, we saved and had a retirement plan. and someone who listened and helped us along the way. because we always knew that someday the future would be the present. every someday needs a plan. talk with us about your retirement today.
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there's a look at the stock. company announcing wage increases, menu changes. is the stock a hot meal ticket or is mcdonald's getting cold? let's debate it. john and pete are the bulls. big shock. can't separate you two. josh -- >> next to each other every day. >> tweet us at cnbc fast money. separate you. >> right. >> that's the cnbc, fast money. #bull or #bear. >> i like the idea, judge. i know some people are going to shoot against it about the rate structure, but i like that. this is one of the largest
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landowners in the world outside of the catholic church. shareholders would find that very friendly from a tax perspective. not just unlocking some of that value. as far as the breakfast all day or extending breakfast, i like that as well. how many times have you gone in and just missed the breakfast. that's a profitable part of their day part -- >> not often. >> egg mcmuffin. they cut it off 11:00 -- >> i digress. pete? >> you're coming to me first. i thought we were going back and forth. >> who wants to make the case on the other side? >> the reality of it becoming a read has not happened any time soon and will not happen any time soon. let's talk about the dollar increase. that equates to a price increase of close to 2%. that has to happen somewhere along the line. so you have a new ceo. they need to change the menu and simplify the menu. most importantly, they need to
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lift what has been horrible weak operating margins. i just don't see that happening. the action last week of s&p cannot be ignored on the credit side. affirmation of what really right now is no strategy. they don't have one. >> i like the strategy right now. i think slow and steady wins the game here, judge. i don't think they need to like turn the company upside down and says, okay, we're not a burger joint anymore. we're going to be a mexican restaurant. they already had their chance to do that with cmg. they pushed that one out. yeah, they're going to do table service in germany -- >> is there a floor in the stock or not? >> low 90s. >> amazingly well given the steady stream of bad news. >> go to our other bear. he's going to give it to you. >> stocks held up fine. >> not just fine. pretty well, right? >> no. it's exactly where it was
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trading in december of 2011. so it's done nothing. here's the point. this is a company -- >> -- my point, but whatever. go ahead. >> >> but you make 3.5% a year for that. that's not so bad over that same time period. >> how many people have tried to find value with these prices in the stock and have not in the end? that will probably continue. i don't think you want to short the name, but there's a lot f on -- >> year-to-date, mcdonald's up 3%. >> what about sonic and wendy's? >> i don't have those year-to-date. >> let's compare burger to burger. >> that's part -- >> hold on. this is the point i was trying -- >> we're on the same side. you're telling me to hold on? >> i'm going to tag you in a second. so now you've got currency head winds. the analysts say. that's like -- let's say 40 basis points off. the wage inch crease they just
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announced. so you have head winds on top of revenue decline. it's no reason to be rushing in to buy mcdonald's. >> they're shareholder friendly. they bought back $6 billion worth of shares last year. you get the 3.5% dividend or thereabouts right now. i think he's going to do this. this guy understands, what's their problem right now. they have to simplify the menu. if they do that and offer the breakfasts all day along with the coffee, that will be the growth driver for this company going forward. >> wendy's is up and sonic is up 17%. >> for all the reasons we know out. the menu is too complex and it became slow. it was no longer fast food. >> you don't want to eat the food. >> they -- >> sonic isn't international, judge. when you're comparing mcdonald's so that, you can't say look at this because the currencies --
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>> but joe just raises the issue, look, if you're going to go burger versus burger and deciding whether you should buy mcdonald's shares right now or another name in the burger space -- >> do you want to chase sonic up 17%? >> i don't know. ask joe. >> mcdonald's only three. >> mcdonald's -- >> right where we are right now. if you ask me beginning of the year, i'd have a different answer. >> last comment right here. >> that's the problem. this thing was 80, i'd be on your side of the table. scott makes the point that hst eld up. he's right. it has not given you the discount that you would need to get excited. >> that's a point. there we go. >> we asked the twitter-verse to weigh in and the winner is the bear case. the bear case wins on mcdonald's. coming up, all but one of the traders are bullish on. should you follow those guys
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right there on your screen? or are they about to get trampled. plus, it's the first day of halftime's energy summit. as oil pushes back above 50 bucks. rbc's head of commodity strategy is doing what we call the perp walk. she's coming to the set next. we're going to get her take on the framework for the iran deal. what it means for oil and so much more. don't forget to visit our website as well. all the trades and analysis from our team. we are back in two. (trader vo) i search.
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i research. i dig. and dig some more. because, for me, the challenge of the search... is almost as exciting as the thrill of the find. (announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we rebuilt scottrade elite from the ground up - including a proprietary momentum indicator that makes researching sectors and industries even easier. because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours.
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i am an electric crew foreman out of the cupertino service center. i was born and raised in the cupertino area. it's a fantastic area to work. the new technology that we are installing out in the field is important for the customers because system reliability i believe is number one.
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pg&e is always trying to plan for the future and we are always trying to build something stronger and bigger and more reliable. i love living here and i love the community i serve. nobody wants to be without power. i don't want my family to be without power. it's much more personal to me for that reason. i don't think there's any place i really would rather be. here's your cnbc news update for this hour. kenya placed a $215,000 reward for the capture of the head of al shabaab for master minder the massacre of 149 students at a university. "new york times" reporting that jeb bush identified himself as hispanic on a voter registration application in florida. it included a lipg to the application. bush poked fun at the story tweeting, quote, my mistake,
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don't think i fooled anyone. junior added lol, think you checked the wrong box. >> baseball is back begins tonight against the cardinals and the cubs. won by the cardinals 3-0. average ticket prices rose 3.3% this season. the steepest increase in six years. this is according to tmr's fan cost index. leading the way, the boston red sox. president obama kicked off the annual white house easter egg roll and used the occasion to tout the fifth anniversary of michelle obama's campaign to get kids to eat healthy and exercise. that's the cnbc news update for this hour. back to you. >> thank you. noted oil trader andy hall is out with his latest comments on the marngt today and seems to think he might have been a little early on the bull case. kate kelly is here with more. we talked a lot about this a couple months back when he sent
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this letter out because of who he is and his track record. what do we know today? >> hall made news last month for saying that he was closing out all his bearish positions in crude and adding to his bullish ones. now he's saying, in hindsight, we were a little too quick in doing so. he thinks it might be a cure for itself, he said in the latest letter that it may take a little longer for low prices to work their magic. still hall is optimistic on the bigger picture. the motion on an armada of floating storage tankers offshore he says hasn't materialized and data showing that vehicle miles driven in january were up 5% or more shows that american driving habits are growing stronger. he also thinks that u.s. crude inventories will peak this month and a strong seasonal pickup in
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second half demand will argue for much stronger prices down the road. he's about flat year-to-date from what i'm told. so we'll see how this choppy second quarter treats him as we move into what many consider to be the bottoming out period right here. >> good stuff as always. thank you so much. what's your read? >> my read is that i love that everyone is questioning themselves on oil. everyone wants to buy oil, but they want to make a reservation to buy it in the mid-30s. they don't want to buy it right now in the mid-40s to 50. i think oil is going to go towards $60. i things it's going to do it very soon. i myself, i have two energy holdings, i probably will add another. halliburton is the name i'll be looking to buy. you want to buy oil. you believe in the long term that's the right trade, go buy oil. it's never going to get to 35.
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>> is it too early to be bullish or not? paul says maybe it is. joses it's not. >> are you saying it's too -- >> no it's not. he's saying it's going to 60. >> if you want to buy oil, go buy oil. >> you wouldn't put out -- >> don't want to buy it unless it's in the 30s. >> trying to market time one of the most volatile assets the world that's traded. don't market time it. you want to be in oil, go buy oil. don't question yourself. >> let me introduce our next guest as we kickoff our "halftime" energy summit. we're going to talk to some of the top experts in the case. today, we have helima croft, a former economic analyst as well as cia. it's great to have you here. >> thank you. >> respond. what do you think? >> i definitely think we're going to see a recovery in the back half of this year. certainly going into 2016, we're very, very positive. we kind of dodged a bullet in
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iran. i was expecting more of a selloff. i think people are being sensible now, this is not an event until 2016. but i do think there are a lot of things that could take us either way in the market. we're so close to something happening in the mild east that could move us significantly higher. >> how in the world do you trade it, then? >> if you're just looking at when should cap ex-cuts filter through, you're safe at the back half of this year, certainly q12016. then you have to think about event risks. when saudi sends troops to the border with yemen, you have to be worried about middle east premium kicking back in. >> is there any message in the economy at all on oil's price or 100% a supply issue? >> the dollar has been important for example. i do think part of the pickup today was the weaker dollar. the key stories will be dollar
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strength, will be the issue about when do the capex cuts filter through, and is there some additional supply story we might miss. what if the iran barrels do come back? that could be anywhere from 300,000 to a million. getting the timing is going to be very important. >> framework versus finished product. >> yes. >> on iran. how much different is it going to look? >> one of the things i've been sort of concerned about is people keep saying, so much detail, this framework agreement. are the sticking points the same ones we've had before? so for example, the iranians keep saying all the sanctions have to be removed immediately. the u.s. is saying it's going to be staggered. these may be things op ended by june 30th. i don't think it's a done deal. >> people are suggesting that the framework doesn't do more than it actually does. it doesn't do this, it doesn't
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do this. i don't hear a lot of people saying it does this, it does this. >> it provides a road map. the talks haven't died. we get another three more months and it looks a little bit better than what we've seen before. now, the israelis are not happy. but certainly, i think the obama administration feels like they have a case they can make on this. >> now what i really want to talk to you about. i want you to put your cia back on. >> homeland, right? >> did you read it? >> of course i did. >> the title, it's good riddance carry mathison. the notion that maureen puts forth is that the real life women at the cir are like bye-bye, see you later. that women often portrayed -- >> never going to work at the cia. >> are not done so in the best of light? i totally agree with her.
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if you could see the female cohort from the cia, these are rock stars. they raise children. they do tremendous work every day for little pay because they believe in their country. they're not running off getting drunk, picking up men in bars. it's just not how they operate. >> tell us who the real women at the cia. >> for example, if you ever put jamie messik on, they're incredible women who are so smart. they work such long hours. they're rock stars in every way. they're not going out there behaving this way. >> a little hollywood sensationalism? >> yeah, but it sells. >> thanks for coming. and thanks for giving us your take on this. >> thank you. >> all right. "halftime's" energy summit continues tomorrow with christian and his first ever tv
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interview. we're so excited about that. great lineup for the rest of the week as well. helima kicking it off today. time for a herd alert. all but one of the traders on the desk is piling into it. it's the gold miners everyone but josh is a bull which is interesting. why are you guys bullish on the miners? >> this has been sort of this trade that -- it just has not reacted the way people would expect. today, as a matter of fact, we're seeing some of that in different areas of the mining sector. when they want to rush in, that's the time you want to ride along with this whole thing. we're seeing them start to rush back into some of the names in silver and gold. these are not -- >> the carry of the options market. getting in there and digging up dirt and seducing people. here's the thing. this is about what your time frame is. i think pete made the most important point.
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these are trades. the prevailing trend is still lower. all the technicals are still ugly other than an eight-day expo evening shall. this is not the thing investors should be looking to call the bottom in because frankly, there isn't one. once there is, you will have plenty of time, even if you're buying sliegtsly higher than today's prices in a commodity driven sector, you want to wait for the trend in your favor. >> this isn't just about today and the weak dollar and so forth. the dollar has been a part of this story, but the biggest part has been people have underowned these names. if you look at it two weeks ago when we first started talking about them coming back in, take a look at the nugget and ugt, that thing's up 11% today. but it began its move two weeks ago along with the gdx. >> these are triple levered
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miner etf. >> both up double digits for the year. there's less selling out of europe in gold than we had seen in 2013 which is a big contributor. go to any investment conference right now, nobody asks you about owning gold anymore. that's a great indicator that it's time to get back in. coming up, a check on the regional banks. why stocks in that space are moving lower today. plus, seeing something unusual in a consumer name. stick around to find out exactly which one it is. that's next. [ male announcer ] legalzoom has helped start over 1 million businesses.
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and passion. pitching wedge. thanks phil. and always having the courage to take your best shot. kpmg. continuing our commitment to the next generation of women leaders. coming up at the top of the hour, some big companies start reporting quarterly numbers this week. and the big question, is are we going to see a net negative and if we do, could that be a dip for stocks or potentially a major buying opportunity. plus, utilities, tech, and big
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oil up today. but is that where the value is in the second quarter. and tesla surpassing 10,000 cars delivered in the first kaur. is the stock about to celebrate. all of that straight ahead. now back to scott. >> thank you so much. we do have breaking news now once again from kate kelly. it is about performance and outperformance. >> that's right. sill ta dell, one of the country's largest outperforming for this quarter. up about 6.85% according to a recent communication with investors. as well doing well on other strategies. equity strategy up about 7%. tactical trading up about 7.4%. that's all year-to-date. on the back of a reasonably strong march. the quarter to date we know about. .72, the family office once stee cohen's hedge fund, the only one
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that seems to be doing better. so interesting results here, scott. i'm told that the flag ship performance is due to strong performance in equities but also commodities. >> and your bread and butter. thank you so much. when something unusual happens, one or both tries to find it, make little money on it. the guys are up. what do you see? >> we're looking at hog, harley davidson. stock started closer to 65. dipped all the way down to the 58 level. just underneath $62 a share right now. real interesting day, as it started to move to the upside, somebody came in started buying these harley davidson 62.5 calls. i think it's one you'd want to keep an eye on. about two weeks, these are going to expire two weeks from this past friday. people looking for this to maybe
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pop over 62.5 again. >> are you in it? >> i am. >> just the options? >> just the options. >> i jumped in early into tesla like i was telling josh earlier. they were buying weekly calls. when somebody's buying a weekly call, these expire this coming friday, the 10th. this particular stock was under 200 at the time when they began buying these calls right at the opening. as the stock ran to the upside, you can see it's up $8 from the opening today. trading 206 right now. it began the day basically at 198 or so. these calls, the 210 calls, were 40 cents. they ran close to $3. obviously that's nearly six times as far as how that investment played out. i'd say i'm going to be in them probably one to two days. i don't know that it doesn't breakthrough 210, but basically i bought the 205s and 210s and
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probably be in them 48 hours or thereabouts. >> coming up, we go under the radar for something you could be missing. our traders however are not. including a move from victoria's secret owner. stay tuned. we're back after this.
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>> all right. portfolio time. there's the leaderboard. leventhal still in the lead. up the%.
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john likes a comeback of 6.5%. stephanie. there's pete as well. pete, you are making up a little ground. you bought the first trade of apple. nice to see you do that. >> yeah. >> see how it goes. >> mary thompson at the market flash desk. we were expecting this. >> we're ready for you to rip into me again. >> not at all. >> you made a trade. >> i made a trade. >> the worst performing stock. the planned merger between hudson city and m & t bank has run into another delay. this is about two years in the making. the federal reserve saying it's unable to complete its review of the merger before the deal termination date of april 30th. this is the biggest pending u.s. bank deal. take a look at both stocks. hudson city off 6.5%. also, hitting regional banks, guggenheim on regions financial and comerica.
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graet risk tied to their exposure to energy related companies. both off fractionally. sflu like the regionals, joe? >> i like them. it seems as though the activity is more on the credit side. that's where the opportunity is right now. >> what's the -- >> look at the kre. go look at a weekly chart. give it some time. you've got a very, very defined resistance level of about 41, 42. we're hanging right at that level. each low has been higher than the preceding. this is the kind of chart that looks like it's minutes from breaking out.
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>> the best financials are morgan stanley and the brokers. they have the benefit of not having to go out and issue a bunch of paperwork that takes three months to issue a loan. these guys can do it with a signature on the margin. i think that is why you want to bet on these guys when rates are going up. they're going to move so much faster than the banks. i would go with the brokers in every case. whether it's schwab, td ameritrade or whether it's morgan stanley. >> do you have a quick rebuttal? >> there are a lot of head wind for the brokers and the asset managers. there may be idiocincratic things that keep the bond market and quarterly, whatever the case may be. i like kre. i think you pick the bigger names out of there as well. >> i'm on the opposite side. i'll take the asset managers all day long, which i have been if for a couple of years now, and i like those investment banks. goldman saks still my favorite. i keep waiting for it to break out. keeps pushing up against the 192 area, judge. has a hard time. that's where it is again today. one of these days it's going to break through. i got some options. hoping for that day to be soon.
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>> all right. coming up, three hours left in the trading day, and a busy one. let me talk to you about retirement. a 401(k) is the most sound way to go. let's talk asset allocation. sure. you seem knowledgeable, professional. would you trust me as your financial advisor? i would. i would indeed. well, let's be clear here. i'm actually a dj. [ dance music plays ] [laughs] no way! i have no financial experience at all. that really is you? if they're not a cfp pro, you just don't know. find a certified financial planner professional who's thoroughly vetted at cfp -- work with the highest standard.
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>> halftime is almost over. here's your game plan from the rest of the trading day. >> all right. three hours to go. make sense of this market today. >> it's tough to, judge. >> reason to be down, right? >> all weekend long after friday's report, and suddenly we come in. we're still down. we were first just in an incredible way. i think one of the things that's standing out to me as we get into the second half of the day is just looking at how -- i mean, josh has been all over this. a lot of us have been talking about housing and the housing related type names. you look at something like even home depot, look at lowe's and whirlpool. the names that are the next derivative down from housing. they have been strong. can they continue? this has been a pretty bresive run for quite a while.
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>> taper tantrum. that's what people are worried about all the time, and you took that, i believe, off the table well this horrible jobs report. in other words, you pushed it out to where people are comfortable again out in september. doesn't mean they won't be uncomfortable in august when we finally get there. had to be under armor. trading around $80. stock is going to $85. possibly $90. pete has talked about it for years. great brand to wear. >> he is a great operator. >> your son is a walking billboard. >> if you see the sneakers, sweat pants, all about under armor. >> how do i top that? >> i would just say reacquaint yourself with the european financials. they are up 8.2% this year as a
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group. eufn is the ticker. now back above it's declining moving average and prior resistance. this is the play on euro qe. you don't have to believe it will fix the economy, but it will pump up asset prices. >> great. thank you. pretty interesting day on the street, and power picks up the story now. halftime is over. "power lunch" and the second half of the trading day start right now. >> scott, gentlemen, thanks very much. tyler mathison here. some big companies start to report their quarterly numbers this week, and the big question is are we going to see a net negative? either losses or declines in profit growth. if we do, what's it going to mean for stocks? are we about to see a major buying opportunity? there is a buying opportunity in gold. the etfgld is up 25% over the past two years. is it a good time to put some green in the glittery stuff? there you see the


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