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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  April 7, 2015 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT

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include rand iphone cases and beats head phone skins. available rand paul nsa spy cam blockers which run 15 bucks. the small tool sticks to the top of a laptop and opens and closes over the camera at the top of the screen. in case you're wondering what to get for father's day. >> very on message. >> to headquarters, scott wapner and the half. ♪ >> thanks so much. welcome to the halftime show. let's meet our starting lineup for today. stephen weiss managing partner of short hills capital, josh brown the ceo of ritholtz wealth management, john and pete najarian the co-founders of optionmonster. our game plan looks like this. #aboutface. why one well-known tech investor buying twitter for the first time ever and says tech earnings will be terrible. crude reality, exclusive interview with christian zan as our energy summit continues. where does one of the best
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performers in the space see oil heading next? we'll go live to louisville this hour, as rand paul officially throws his hat in the ring for the presidency. we begin, though, with that big move by alpha one's dan niles buying twitter for the first time, a guy short the stock in the past. joins us now by phone on why he's had this change of heart. welcome back. >> thanks, scott. >> surprised taken aback when i saw this news, why? >> yeah. so was i. well, i mean with twitter obviously the valuation is something that is impossible to get comfortable with, and relative to other names out there, but the real problem with twitter and why we've been short the stock pretty much off and on since they came public because their user growth had massively slowed down and what we see is them making moves between different features such as the instant timeline or while you were a away, but more importantly the search deal with
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google that they went ahead and signed where they will be google will be able to access the tweets coming in, be able to show that when you do a search, we think that's going to really help get their monthly active users which has been the big problem with this company, they only added 4 million users in the most recent quarter, for example, i think it will really enable them to get that cranked up and moving in the right direction again which is the biggest problem with the stock. they've never missed revenue since they became public. how big can this be. facebook has 1.4 billion users, twitter only has less than 300 million and they're growing, you know, much more slowly in terms of users they had. >> i say -- i said in a guest at the top that i was surprised and taken aback and you sort of said the same thing, somebody could sit there today, dan, and say wait a minute, niles didn't like the stock at 30, didn't like it at 35 or 45, now he likes it at 50? >> that's not true. remember i told you i covered
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this stock when i was on last time and back in early december, back in the mid-30s, and, you know, we were -- made pretty good money on the short side and we've been watching this for a while and we own facebook so we have other ownership in the space, twitter the biggest problem we've had is, the valuation here. you're talking about 140 times calendar '15, facebook trades at about 40 times calendar '15 on a p/e basis but the real inflection point here we think is the deal with google where google has 1.5 billion users that are now going to get access to tweets in real time, twitter has less than 300 million, they got 750 million if you include all the logged out users, and you got facebook sitting at 1.4 billion. that's really what you're looking at and that's something that's going to start to happen, you know, in about a month's time when this gets launched. >> is twitter a takeover target? there's some, you know, wild speculation running around the market today in part that had the shares already up about 3.5%
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or so before we sort of tweeted out the news you have bought the stock. now the stock is higher than that at the highs of the day. is it a takeover target in your mind? >> well, i mean, i think you have to look at it differently. if you look at google, google's really getting killed in social category. i mean who uses google plus? you know, that's pretty much debt. so if you're sort of google or somebody else who's really trying to get your growth reinvigorated, twitter is obviously somebody that you can look at and say, they've got a fair number of users, people do use the service, we could do some things to help fix it, get things cranked up again, because they've been struggling on the user growth front and that makes it interesting, but that's, you know, that's not why we own it. i mean these days, it seems like money is free, right, rates are pretty low, stock prices are incredibly high, relative to history, on a valuation basis, so everybody has pretty good
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currency and twitter stock if you look at it relative to a couple years ago still not bad, hasn't done that well. >> dan, it's steve, so just a little more clarity on why you're in this. so you say it's impossible to value at 140 times, can't justify the valuation, the google news actually is not brand new news. yet -- hold on. let me finish. you're buying the stock up significantly and you point to that they only have 300 users. how many users do you need to have to justify the stock price where you just bought it? >> well, you have to remember, so number one, we're not buying it today. we already bought it. >> what price? >> if you look at it -- >> will you tell us what price you bought it? >> well, we bought it in early march and our view is a couple different ways to win here. so the google thing gives you a catalyst because you're always trying to find with these stocks like buying facebook, right. we were short facebook when it came public.
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covered it. got long it. stock is up a long since that period of time from the low 20s. and the inflection point at that point was they had started to really focus in on mobile which they hadn't been really focused on since they came public. with twitter you look and go, their user growth has been horrible, right. no other way to put it. but they finally sat here and said, you know what we had the deal with google that expired in 2011, we did it for two years, got off of that, but let's face it, google has got a billion and a half users. we've got 300 million. if we can start to close that gap and start to grow it, that will help. the second piece of it is that you've got services such as timeline while you were away that i think is helping in terms of adding new users and finally the ad load which is a lot less than other internet sites at about 1.3%. they talked about this. they think that can reach 5%. even if you make the assumption
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they're not going to add any more users but going to increase their ad load from 1.3% to 5% you're talking about revenues tripling and that's just getting you to where everybody else is sort of sitting. so there's a bunch of different ways to win, but catalyst is really the google deal in my mind of coming out and, you know, you get lucky, maybe somebody acquires them that's great, but you never want to buy a stock that are that reason. >> before i do, we're about to embark on earnings season and the headline which we would have gone with today is that dan niles says, that tech earnings are going to be a total disaster or something like that. >> well -- >> is that how you see it? is that the -- well that's what you said. is that because of the dollar or what's going on? >> no. you've got multiple different problems. number one, anybody on the east coast knows the weather hasn't been great. that kind of subdues demand. the second thing chinese new year which happened later this year, demand over that was not good and that's one of the biggest markets for a lot of
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tech products. you've also got the dollar as you pointed out, which helps with -- which hurts with currency translation but the bigger issue the dollar up 20% year over year is making a lot of u.s. tech products that competes with overseas competitors in europe or japan all of a sudden you have 20% price increase. what you would see is a lot of companies having to start to cut prices on their products which are going to affect margins. our goal is to be very cautious during earnings season look for good shorts and then in a few cases, where we think we've got it interesting long ideas, we talked about twitter, obviously. >> i saw something where you said that you're expecting a 10 to 20% correction in the market this year. >> yeah. i think so. because i mean if you look at earnings, earnings come down, stocks have continued to go up, by multiple expansion, but at a certain point you to sit there and go, why are you paying multiples this high when earnings are going down and sometimes it takes a while but, you know, moves happen very, very quickly.
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and i think, you know, as we head towards the summer and companies in the u.s. are struggling with the fact that their products are 20% more expensive than overseas competitors, and growth is slowing globally then that's a problem. growth in the u.s. is great. that's not the problem. the growth overseas is slower and that's where a lot of these international companies are getting it from. >> i appreciate you coming on today. >> appreciate it. >> we'll talk to you soon, dan niles long twitter that stock on the move. josh you're long as well. >> yeah. i've been long. i bought more in the high 30s. long since the ipo. i think that there's a degree of reflectivity in these social media flames where when the -- names where when the stock prices are moving higher analysts become more open to the possibility there's business momentum and i find that interesting. you don't really see that across the entire market. but in these stocks when facebook's running, we're willing to believe that a certain new thing facebook is rolling out might be better than we would have if facebook were
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selling off in the stock market. as long as that's going on, this is a very tough market to analyze based on any real metric. i'm using price, price tells me this name wants to break out and staying long. >> coming up, an upgrade for jpmorgan pushing that stock higher today but not everyone loves it on this desk. we have a bull and a bear lacing up their gloves for a debatep. fedex making a major acquisition. but is it a better buy than ups? traders take their positions. our half time energy summit continuing today with christian zan, oil rallying. he's going to tell us where he's placing his bets right now. his performance has been great. you want to hear from him coming up. rand pal, set to take the stage in louisville. he joins the presidential race today. live there for his comments in just a bit. we're back after this.
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all right. maybe one of the charts of the day, a nice move for crude within the last hour. up more than 2%. as the debate grows over whether oil has found a bottom. it's a question that's been tough to answer for even the best and biggest investors. kate kelly with more on how the so-called smart money is playing it and playing it a bunch of different ways. >> they are and their performance reflects that. the smart money may not be feeling so smart depending on
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who you ask. performance has been all over the map this first quarter as the commodity charts, the commodity oil that is, charts a volatile course but remains depressed relative to last summer even if it stayed in a range this year. one of the biggest performers among hedge funds that focus on commodities has been the merchant commodity fund which called the downturn in crude last year and wound up as one of 2014's best alpha generators as well, up close to 10% year to date and has signaled continued bearishness as we move into the second quarter based on continuing fundamental weakness. andy hall, the ceo known for his traditionally bullish stance on crude, has been unchanged in his fund and as we discussed yesterday on the show, is betting on more near term choppiness but price improvement by year's end based on fundamental improvement in his view. and the commodity fund another london based player that looks at metals and soft commodities as well as energy has had trouble so far this year navigating the current landscape.
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armgarro's shares are down 6.5% through the first quarter according to hedge fund reports. it's not clear on what their strategy is but they look at technicals and also more fundamental factors. >> it's interesting, let's now, kate, you stick around, we will bring in one of the best energy investors around, christian zann a partner and portfolio manager with chicago-based balyasny asset management they have more than $8 billion under management, christian overseas about 3 billion of that, up 20% in his energy fund in 2014. he's here now in a cnbc exclusive. thanks for coming in. great to welcome you to the network. what do you think? we've had this debate. there are a lot of voices trying to figure out where it's going, have we bottomed or not? >> before, i do want to say what we do exactly we run market neutral oil neutral query in the energy space. we try to stay oil neutral. our job is to find areas where we buy oil on the cheap and short it expensive and,
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therefore, keep that neutrality. >> been more difficult to employ that in 2015 or no? >> so far so good. '14 we had a strong year really because some of our shorts that required $100 oil prices obviously under performed in the back half of the year so it's kind of alpha beta put it that way, but what we're seeing is a continuation of people sorting out here what is $50 meaning $100 oil world. there's plenty of alpha to be had in those situations. >> are you able to tell us where you think oil is going? are you constructive on where you think prices could go from here. >> i will answer the question because i know we want to talk about it, but generally speaking we are more constructive. back to november, the opec meeting on thanksgiving, in kind of late summer seeing signs of too much supply, growth publicized but demand was
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weakening particularly in asia, so the opec meeting in november many wanted an opec cut. [ inaudible ] which is to try to force the market to fix itself and what you do is you introduce volatility in the market so therefore alter native areas of demand you try to reduce those alternatives. also you try to force people to cut the rig count to reduce their growth and supply. since that time we've seen the rig count in the u.s. has basically been cut in a half 2,000 rigs to about 1,000. in the international rig count which i find more important we're seeing international spending down 15 to 20% this year with that kind of reduction you are seeing the force supplied discipline if the price goes 100 to 50. demand has picked up. u.s. demand growing about 4% year to date, gasoline demand growth year to date is the highest growth rate we've seen in the last 35 years. seeing those natural supply demand forces play out which
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makes us more constructive. >> seems to me one of the key questions is where do we stand on oversupply? focusing on curbing, some indication yesterday via gen scape maybe curbing stock piles were leveling off or declining a it tad. you don't want to overread week over week, floating storage being utilized which could be an indication we have again too much oil in storage and we will see another price bottom. >> to that point say that i'm sure you're familiar with jeff curry. >> sure. >> goldman puts out a note saying their headline still too much light crude at the end of the it tunnel. >> absolutely. oversupply certainly a near term issue, how bad is it going to get? where will that take the flat price and play out through 2015? >> usually commodities is the price doesn't tell you at all how oversupply or undersupplied you are. in this case oversupplied. >> a moment in time? >> it's a moment in time. when i talked about since november the crude price is down $25 since november. you're still oversupplied in the short it term and the price is
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relatively depressed. in jeff's work at goldman, they have been calling full kushing storage for a while and we don't think you get there. we think consensus is looking for full storage this spring. if you look at it historically what happens is refining maintenance peaks in march and driving season picks up in may. we'll start to see curben in inventories not draw yet but the pace will slow. >> the bottom is already in? is that what you're suggesting? >> yes. i think so. >> in the ti market. >> yes. >> the one thing is, at the same time, the ti market is seen up a little bit. the european market undergoing heavy maintenance. we'll see the continued compression with spread. >> it's sort of in the environment and trying to play the game of where you think oil is going. you obviously have to be
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incredibly selective in the names you're going to play. i want to take a break and come back and talk individual stocks. cool? all right. christian zann back with us after the short break. his top three energy picks as our halftime energy summit continues. also coming up, canada saying good-bye to general motors selling remaining stake. how are the traders playing that name? another name in the news today, jpmorgan gets an upgrade but one of our traders isn't buying it. we're back after this. sometimes romantic. there were tears in my eyes. and tears in my eyes. and so many little things that we learned were really the biggest things. through it all, we saved and had a retirement plan. and someone who listened and helped us along the way. because we always knew that someday the future would be the present.
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we're here to make healthier happen. optum. healthier is here. we're back with balyasny asset manager christian zann. i want to get to your picks of people that want to hear from you on that. weiss, want to talk about one in specific. >> i want to talk about the service stocks and first i guess i should disclose that we're actually investing in balyasny my firm and one of the big reasons is christian because he's been the largest generator of pnl there. service stocks have bounced off the bottom but it seems when you talk about rig counts, reductions, they're the most impacted. do you wait for a pullback or
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okay to buy them here? >> that's great question. one of our biggest nonconken sus calls we like the service stocks. if you go to an energy conference you hear the production companies saying they're going to hammer 30% of costs out of the service companies and so consensus right now likes the producers and generally doesn't like the services. we see the producers generally discounting 75 to $80 oil where the service companies get oil cheaper. we if you look at historically what happens is, at this point in the cycle people buy quality, they'll bid up for it, they want clean balance sheets but now you're being forced to ask the question i want oil risk how do i do it? so an example would be the permian basin oil producers discount 80, $85. you're not getting great reward for the risk you're taking if that 80 to 85 discounted in the permian producers is the right number the rig count is going higher. one of the situations where if this is true this can't be true. >> schlumberger.
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>> we like. >> halliburton. >> schlumberger is a pure play in north america as halliburton is. halliburton about 50%, schlumberger is 30. >> you -- did you already have positions in these names well before the downturn in all of these stocks and have you used the pullbacks to build further positions in these stocks? >> we trade the sectors fairly actively so late last year we were reducing our service positions reduction in oil prices and cash flows, make money was decreasing. >> pete? >> away from oil just for a moment, you have a goat an -- got an interesting pick with pea body. why now and what are you seeing and how long have you been bullish on this particular name? >> usually when i talk about coal people's eyes glaze over. pervater in the cycle or closer to the up cycle in coal because nobody wants to talk about it. people are trying to pick a bottom in the commodity space you're usually not quite there. coal just the general lack of
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interest is something to point out. one thing different about coal versus the exploration production shale guys, coal is a relatively low capital intensive business so once you spend the money you produce the coal. in the shale side, you really need to spend a lot of money drilling new wells to maintain your basep. the decline rate is about 40%. didn't drill more wells you 40% lower units. >> i want you to hold your thought and try to get back to it. rand paul we understand is now coming out in louisville, kentucky, officially entering the presidential race today. do we have a live picture of the room? there he is on the stage there. rand paul entering the race for the presidency. john harwood is there as well as senator paul gets ready to hit the podium. john? >> scott, rand paul is running as a different kind of republican. he's trying to broaden the republican base and broaden the
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libertarian niche his father sketched out but i have to tell you, it's a different kind of party in multiple ways. on foreign policy, also on economics. the intro video that rand paul played, had a country singer singing "they're living it on wall streeted a and that new york city town and the real world they're shutting detroit down." let's listen to rand paul. >> not mince words. we've come to take our country back. [ applause ] >> we've come to take our country back from the special interests that use washington as their personal piggy bank. the special interest that are more concerned with their personal well fare than the general welfare. the washington machine that gobbles up our freedoms and invades every nook and cranny of
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our lives, must be stopped. [ applause ] less than five years ago i stood just down the road in my hometown in bolling green and said those same words. i wasn't supposed to win. no one thought i would. some people asked me, then why are you running? the answer is the same now as it was then. i have a vision for america. i want to be part of a return to prosperity. a true economic boon that lifts all americans, a return to a government restrained by the constitution. [ applause ] a return to privacy, opportunity, liberty, too often
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when republicans have won, we've zanderred our victory -- squandered our victory by becoming part of the washington machine. that's not who i am. [ applause ] that's not why i ran for office the first time just a few years ago. the truth is, i love my life as a small town doctor. every day i woke up, i felt lucky to be able it to do the things i love. more importantly i was blessed to be able it to do things that made a difference in people's lives. i never could have done any of this without the help of my parents who are here today. i would like you to join me -- [ applause ] with my parents' help i was able to make it through long years of medical training to become an eye surgeon.
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there's nothing that compares with helping someone see better. last august i was privileged to travel to guatemala on a medical mission trip together with a team of surgeons from across the u.s. we operated on more than 200 people who were blind or nearly blind from cataracts. i was grateful to put my scrubs back on, peer into the oculars in the micro icroscope and focu the it task at hand take a surgical approach to fix a problem. one day a man arrived and told me that i operated on his wife the day before. his wife could see clearly for the first time in years. she had begged him to get on the bus, travel the winding roads and come back to our surgery center. he, too, was nearly blind from hardened cataracts. the next day his wife sitting next to me as i unveiled the patch from his eyes a powerful emotional moment for me to see them looking at each other clearly for the first time in years, to see the face they loved again. as i saw the joy in their eyes i
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thought this is why i became a doctor. in that moment, i also remembered my grand mother who inspired me to become an eye surgeon. she spent hours with me as a kid, we would sort through pennies, but as her vision became to fail i became her eyes to inspect the faintness of the mint marks and weather worned coins. i went with my grandmother to the opts mall gist as she had her corneas replaced and received the sad news macular degeneration had done irreparable harm to her eyes. my hope that my grandmother would see again made me want to become an eye surgeon. i've been fortunate able to enjoy the american dream. i worry, though, that the opportunity and hope are slipping away for our sons and daughters. as i watch the once great economy collapse under mounting spending and debt, i think, what kind of america will our
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grandchildren see? it seems to me that both parties and the entire political system are to blame. [ applause ] big government and debt doubled under a republican administration and it's now tripling under barack obama's watch. president obama is on course to add more debt than all of the previous presidents combined. we borrow a million dollars a minute. the vast accumulation of debt threatens not just our economy but our security. we can wake up now and do the right thing. quit spending money we don't have. [ applause ]
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this message of liberty is for all americans. americans from all walks of life. the message of liberty, opportunity, and justice, is for all americans. whether you wear a suit, a uniform, or overalls, whether you're white, or black, rich or poor, in order to restore america one thing is for certain, though, we cannot, we must not dilute our message or give up on our principles. [ applause ] if we nominate a candidate that is democrat light, what's the point? why bother? [ applause ] we need to boldly proclaim our vision for america. we need to go boldly forth under
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the banner of liberty that clutches the constitution in one hand and the bill of rights in the other. [ applause ] >> senator rand paul officially joining the 2016 presidential race. feel that already includes senator ted cruz could very well include marco rubio and expected to include jeb bush as well. john harwood, back to you now, the senator says we've come to fake -- take our country back. he will have to differentiate himself from those in his party if he gets to do that? >> in his speech he criticized republican administrations for increasing spending and debt like democrats have done. he's got a niche, a foothold in this race, he starts out in third place if you look at national polls right now, third in iowa, third in new hampshire,
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the question is going to be, as the field narrows down, when things get serious next year, can he expand that support and become a truly competitive candidate for the nomination. that is an open question. his father wasn't able to do that. rand paul will give it a try in a different way, scott. >> john harwood, thanks so much, live in louisville, kentucky, where rand paul joins the race. if you want to continue to watch senator paul, go to cnbc.com. we're going to step aside for a moment and come back on the other side of a short break and continue our conversation with top frg fund manager christian zann of balyasny as we continue our halftime energy summit and want to call your attention to shares of peabody energy moving higher on news that the gentleman to my right likes the stock. you can see that spike. that is the highs of the day. 8.3%. we're back right after this with more from christian zann.
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and welcome back. again with balyasny asset management's christian zann. before we cut away, christian, to senator paul making his announcement we were talking about pea body, talking about coal lately has been like a good cure for insomnia. however not today.
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you mentioned the stock, it's up 9.3%. we cut you off to go to louisville as you were explaining why you like it. >> your timing was good because the republican president would help the coal argument with the current administration a bit anti-coal. what we like about peabody is number one, like i said the capital is relatively low, the balance sheet levered not for the faint of heart but free cash flow metrics moving even at these depressed coal prices. we don't think you have to have it to see an appreciation. >> glad we were able to tie that up. baker hughes was at least as of december it 31st of last year, the top holding for the entire firm. now again you run the energy portfolio there. your thoughts on baker hughes? >> we did like baker hughes for the reasons of again looking to play north american oil services baker hughes is a big player in that space. we like the halliburton deal, the combination, bakers hughes has been an asset that is a good
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asset kind of average management, halliburton is also a management team the integration smoothly and the deal gets done. >> you don't own the stock. >> we don't currently. >> when did you sell? >> relatively recently. >> you think the deal gets done and like the halliburton way of playing the deal than both. >> what you got before was a big spread in there about 15%. getting paid to own the combination and play that spread with the deal we think is going to close the spread has naturally gotten tighter. >> doc, you got something. >> yeah. i was looking at refiners as a way to, for instance, when we had the deal or this negotiation going on with iran, all of a sudden you saw crude sell-off both brent and wti last week and refiners were being sold off harder than crude was selling off. crude has turned around and unnow and the refiners down 9%. would you nibble on some of these on dips like we're seeing
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right here if you think we're going to see a band rather than a v shape just boom into the upside? >> generally no. and the reason is we think that people are using their space as a place to -- >> hide. >> if you're getting a little more bullish on kind of beta energy then refining will be a source of funds. that's what we've seen with the move in crude. the iran news, put more negative pressure on brent than wti. that impacts other refiners more than valero but generally speaking they want discounted crude. the differential narrows it negatively impabltss the group. >> when you look at energy high yield debt so hit about a high of 10% yield in december, has since backed down a bit, 8.8 let's say, is that enough of a discount in the credit side to get interested in any of the companies on either the equity or debt side given that let's say the rest of the junk bond market is more like 6.5, 6.6.
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are we accurately reflecting the damage that's happened yet or can it get worse? >> i think particularly on the exploration production i mentioned before many of those credits trade close to par, 7, 8% yields at par. to me that's not a reward for the risk you're taking. given the capital intensity of that busins you need that capital to put in the ground to hold your production base. $50 oil is to either continue to spend and increase debt in your balance sheet or cut off your spending and see the natural production decline take place. if you're looking out further reserves will start to contract. >> you trade long and short what names out there in the oil sector do you think might be overvalued here? >> generally speaking back to the safety trade and refining other safety trade we're seeing are the permian basin. they discount 80, $85 oil good assets so i understand that. this point in the cycle people are overbid those stocks as
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places to hide. which means they might make you feel good in terms of clean balance sheets the risk/reward isn't worth the price you're paying. >> can you give us one example? >> i would rather not. >> somehow i knew that was going to be the follow-up and knew that was going to be the answer. i can't thank you enough for being here. >> appreciate it. >> kris jan zann. balyasny, asset management, his first interview ever, really, and we're grateful you came to spend time with us. >> thanks very much. >> the energy summit continues tomorrow with jeff curry. he is the global commodities head over at goldman sachs. so much to talk about. we'll ask him about some of the thoughts that christian had on where he thinks oil is going, get jeff's perspective as well, always entertaining. coming up, two traders go head to head on jpm, jpmorgan getting an upgrade, which side are you on? that debate is next on the half. the halftime report with scott wapner is the place for market moving interviews. >> when you see large currency moves and large price moves in a
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commodity like oil you have to be worried. >> real money. >> what makes things cheap is uncertainty. >> real debate. >> the interest rates are going to go up, they can't drop as much as they did last year to this year. >> the most profitable hour of the trading day. >> if a stock has doubled you haven't missed it. >> the "halftime report" weekdays at noon eastern. somee to build something smarter. ♪ some come here to build something stronger. others come to build something faster... something safer... something greener. something the whole world can share. people come to boeing to do many different things. but it's always about the very thing we do best. ♪
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all right. jpmorgan got an upgrade today from bernstein by the street's number one rated bank analyst, why perhaps shares are up today. should you buy jpm or is it time to stay away? debate it now. steve weiss the bull, dr. j is the bear. take a look at shares i would
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love it as well. steve weiss, make your case. >> this is a very simple case to me. i have the best management in the industry that navigated 2008 which was the most difficult time, now when times are easier, you can bet they're going to capitalize on it. their asset management, wealth management business is just exploding, and that's the best growing business. not only that, i get a yield, and i've got great growth in earnings, and let's not forget, of course, that the yield curve will improve, will make more money off of that, number one. number two, because of that, the yield curve will improve eventually overseas. >> why are you looking at me? look at me. >> when you pay off a bully, the bully will keep coming back. the bully is the united states
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government, of course. they have got another $13 billion, and that might be increased,stein, because there are a number of lawsuits that keep going before various judges to try to get the increase for that home loan business that jp morgan is part of. that's one reason. another is that trading is down substantially. jp morgan is exiting a number of trading businesses, as are most of the folks in their space, and volumes are down pretty dramatically. revenue at this firm is down 6% year-over-year. that's 2014 versus 2013. i think it will be down again this year, steven. even though i agree with you, the rising interest rate environment is good, it's not going to feel the same to them as it will to morgan stanley or td ameritrade. >> despite that, the stock is up 30% since the government first showed up. more than 30%. >> true. >> i don't think you can fear that. i think you have to sort of embrace the future. the fact that there are a lot less multi-national banks with balance zones out there, so market share pick-ups are going to be here. >> this is an interesting call for a inform reasons. number one, it comes from the top ranked guy in the space.
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okay? >> thank you. >> number two, it comes from -- >> he didn't mean you. >> it comes just ahead of earnings. >> where does he see that going, judge? >> it helps on the -- he likes the bigger banks versus the regional that is are more reliant. the regionals being more reliant on rates, rather than the big ones, where the conversation seems to always go and one of the reasons why you may not like jp morgan and some of the other big guys as much because of rates. >> because they don't get the benefit as fast as others like the td ameritrades, the fidelities, the schwabs do. as far as trading volumes, i don't know, but trading is better here for jp morgan, especially since they've exited most of the businesses. in other words, this must be the people that are trading through jp morgan that they're addressing here rather than jp morgan because they've exited most of those businesses, as has
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goldman, as have most of their competitors. >> do you have a quick thing, josh? upped to say something. >> well, the stock is a point away from a major break-out. it's been consolidated for months. gets above 62. things get really exciting. the last time it was able to clear a resistance level this long was mid 2012. the stock put on 50% in the blink of an eye. i would be long this. >> coming up, more and more super rich returning swire buildings in new york city into mansions. just like that one right there. robert frank, wealth editor, tells us more about that next. plus, three hours left in the trading day. we're going to give you your game plan for the second half after this.
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>> secret lives of the super rich is back. >> the mansions largely disappeared during the last half of the 20th century, but now they're coming back with a twist. take a look. ♪ >> if you are walking down the street, you would never imagine that one of the most luxurious homes in new york city is on this block. this six-story building is the epitomy of self-wealth. it's actually a single family home. you're about to see why it's got a $46 million price tag. >> this is like a sculpture. >> absolutely. it's all hand mitered walnut. >> how much would all this cost? >> knott of $3 million. >> it's part of a new trend among the wealthy who pick stabbed-alone mansions over high rooizs. >> it's literally twice the size of any mansion uptown. >> he said twice the size.
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it's 11,000 square feet, six floors, and it's got an indoor swimming pool. >> i'm surprised steve weiss let you film. >> it's usually much more -- >> last week we talked about the gold tooth picks. i'm going to present the official halftime gold tooth pick to john. when you make your stock picks, you can use the gold tooth pick. >> let me ask you, how long has that place been on the market? it says just reduced to $46 million. >> it's been on the market at least six months. >> what was it before? >> it was 4. $2 million. >> what do they pay for? not long ago. >> they built it. they've lived there for a little while, so it's fairly new. it's an incredible place. >> thanks. >> tune in tonight new episode "secret lives of the super rich" 10:00 p.m. eastern and pacific only in one place here on cnbc. let's get our top trades now. we do have a few hours left in this trading day.
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we'll go around the horn. steve weiss. >> kicking off with alcoa for earnings. it's going to be a very interesting erpgz season. i think that expectations are set so low that we'll come out with pretty positive results. >> josh. biotechs, fdi is one of the -- equal weight biotech. we talked a lot about them derailing the rally. obviously, it's kind of foolish in hind side. you see biotechs essentially give back 15% over the course of five days, and then completely reverse. up 20% on the year. try to avoid those types of narratives going forward. >> dr. jay. >> i'm going to pick, judge, get it, pick? >> yes. got it. >> i'm going to pick valero because when we spoke with christian about refiners, he wasn't as much in my camp as tobias short-term. i like buying them on dips so, that's what i'm doing today. >> a couple of things of note there. i think you pronounced husband last nim correctly and the name of the firm correctly, which
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would be a first. >> that's right. >> the baby has been born, scott. >> the baby has been born. >> a risk for yourself even going there on this program. he is talking about it going up to $60 and even through that level -- we'll see you tomorrow. all of you as well. power begins now. halftime is over. the second half of your trading day begins now. >> scott, gentlemen, welcome, everybody to power lunch. i'm tooirt mathison. today a tale of two shippers. fedex flying into europe with a big acquisition on the stock front it is leaving. ups behind. take a look at that divergence in the chart dating back to last summer. the white line is fedex. the amber one is ups. can ups catch up? if so, how? today a new investing front ear. iran, a company focussing on emerging markets, making plans now to get in first. we'll talk to the

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