tv Fast Money CNBC April 20, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
thank you, guys. that does it for us on "closing bell." "fast money" is coming up in a moment. melissa lee, what's on tap? >> we are trading ibm's earnings after the bell. we'll be on the conversation call. also an exclusive with the vie chair man of lionsgate. >> straight over to you. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times squar i'm melissa lee. here is what's on the fast track tonight. ibm out with earnings moments ago. the stock losing all of its earlier gains after hours. will it recover in tomorrow's trade? and a new book says google almost made an $11 billion deal to buy tesla. clearly that never came to fruition but could google still be on the prowl for another big purchase. first it was apple, no go pro, a chinese coming out with its own extreme camera option. can you guess which was shot with go pro. let's start off with ibm kicking off a big week.
the stock closed up more than 3% in anticipation of the report. now it's given back those gains. pete, what do you think? >> they're fighting for high growth. that's transition that's been put out in front of everybody. she talked about trying to get margins better. that's something that did improve. obviously the hardware will be under pressure. that was down 23%, but the move is to other areas and those other areas are growth. she's trying to execute her best. i think they are. i think ibm is doing the right things. they have had to move in this direction. they were slow to do it like intel was, like microsoft was, but i think they're executing now and i think they're doing a very nice job. >> how much of this strength on this level right here because it does seem it's finding some support, ais based on the company repurchase? how much of that is the worst is over for ibm? this was my secular short call. i don't see them improving anytime soon but maybe multiple expansion. >> well, you need growth for multiple expansion and it's just not there. you talk about share repurchases
in january. they guided to the lowest level in ten years. they've already recognized the fact that with lower earnings with lower sales they're going to have to buy back less shares and i think that's a big story for the year. you look at the chart, the stock has been basing between the low 150s and about mid 165 right where it is right here and i think that reflects the fact there's few catalysts. i know the cloud revenues were up and they're probably 5% of total sales. they're really not moving the needle. to me i think the stock is probably stuck in a rakenge. the slightest bit of good news you maybe fill that in but it doesn't seem to be getting there on what they delivered today. >> if i saw revenue growth i would have been really happy, but you're not seeing it. what you saw was margin improvement which is a good sign. margins were up over 49%. a good sign. the other encouraging thing, this is sort of back in november -- october/november when it broke down these are level it is couldn't recover, couldn't get through a number of times since the fall. 166, 167. but i still say this i still
think they're challenged. yes, they're operating better but their businesses are still to me declining. if you saw revenue growth i would be encouraged. i don't see it. my inclination would be to fade the move to the upside. >> its core business under attack. it's a commoditized business. software service is down year on year. it's not glass half full. it's glass quarter full. >> you're right. it's data cloud, engagement, those are the three biggies and that's something they are executing on but that doesn't take away from the fact that the revenues continue to drop. they continue to disappoint in that regard but it's the margins. so there is execution that they have laid out. i think she would have been better off had she done what meg did at hewlett-packard. here is the five-year plan. they haven't done that. they continue to disappoint and disappoint. right now i'm sort of surprised, they're actually moving up right
now in the post-market. i find that pretty interesting. >> i think technically they're finding some support. you have to ask yourself a question, where do you see the growth coming from? for me it's a ba he meth. you can't turn this ship around. cloud business is a commoditized space. if you're moving -- >> no, it's a drop in the bucket. >> small. >> so they're moving to a spot where who knows. the puck is going to be gone once they get there. so even if they get to where they're going, it's not going to be enough money going forward. >> ibm's earnings call under way. let's bring in cnbc's josh lipton in san francisco. josh? >> well, melissa, some of the same themes on the conference call being played out. revenue $19.6 billion, a disappointment. the company's cfo talking about what they refer to as the strategic imperatives, cloud, analytics analytics, mobile. listen as he described the performance of those business lines. >> now in the first quarter,
revenue in strategic imperatives grew more than 30%. analytics was up more than 20%, social more than 40%, and mobile more than 4x. our cloud revenue was up over 75% year to year. on a trailing 12-month basis, our cloud revenue was $7.7 billion. >> now, those business lines did $25 billion last year. ibm expects them to do $40 billion by 2018. guys, back to you. >> josh did they update the full year guidance, the one they took down in january? >> they reaffirmed the guidance melissa. i haven't heard analysts yet hop on that question but i'll certainly be listening to it and bring you headlines as soon as i get it. >> thanks so much. the reason why i bring that up is because they lowered the guidance for the year but since then the dollar has moved against them. >> that's a really good point, mel. when they gave that guidance back in january, they had just gotten done with a quarter where the dollar had surged. when you think about what's going on here, the dollar is trying to find a level here especially against the euro.
it seems to be kind of pegged here at 105, 106, 107. so i think the large moves are probably over for right now. if there's anything to extrapolate, i think from large cap tech and specifically multinationals is that you probably -- look at the move in microsoft today. look at how intel performed after they gave their guidance for q2 last week. the stocks are actually acting okay. i think it's kind of baked in the cake here is what i'd say. >> midpoint of guidance for eps, let's call it 16.25. what do you think the right mult multiple multiple? >> ten puts the stock price exactly where we are. a 9 takes it down to 144 or so. >> only downside risk to this stock. >> in my view. that's what makes markets. maybe they're turning the corner. >> small caps have been outperforming the s.p.y. and grasso thinks you need to look at the dollar index to figure
out why. >> if the dollar is creating head winds for the s&p 500, then you have to look at the environment that it's creating for the smaller cap names to actually outperform. by a ratio of 2 to 1 and 3 to 1 if you look at the midcap 400. you see this level right here. that's your march level. it sells off, tries to test that level once again, fails, fails, doesn't even create another momentum event here. so you fail right before par, right before $100. this is the 50-day moving average. that's been in your support. that level is 96. 85. it seems to be strong at this point. if you bleed it out longer term it's actually overbought on a monthly basis on an rsi level. so the trading range is actually 95.85, being really specific all the way up to 101 let's call
it 80. that's the levels that you want to know. if this sells off, good for large cap. if it continues to rally, good for midcap. i would say at this point you might be closing that gap between performance levels because i think the dollar is due to come back back off its levels right here. that would mean you want to be rotating out of mid and small and buying s&p 500. >> guy, where do you go small mid, or -- >> the iwm. steve is right. we talked about the russell. as long as it stayed above 121, that was a breakout level, the broader market should be okay. so i think the iwm is imperative it stays above 121. the one thing of interest was the fact that the transports first time in a while caught a bid. maybe that 155 level in the iyt is support. >> i like the big caps. we look at the reaction out of
the big tech companies and then you look over at the big oil companies, they've been doing very well then the transports. when you look at the transports look how well some of the airlines have traded, some of the rails, as well as the truckers. so i think right now i'm leaning, guy, more towards the big cap names because i think based on what steve is talking about, i think the big caps is outperform. >> earnings report on fortinet. >> moving higher in after hours. that's following an earnings beat. the cyber security firm earned 8 cents adjusted per share. that topped estimates by 2 cents. revenue of $213 million was also better than expected. the company said first quarter billings growth jumped 36%. it was the highest level that its experienced as a public company. also that it added over 8,000 customers, so you can see shares of forti net trading up 6.5%, almost 7% in the afterhours. >> thanks so much. on fortinet into the session it
was 2.7% along with a lot of other cyber security names palo alto, fireeye. you pointed that out. >> one of the headlines i heard this morning was the potential for a company like ibm to come in and get into the space. you know pete mentioning intel and what they did with mcafee. they were clearly ahead of the curve. you're in the golden era of these companies. rising tides lift all boats. i think palo alto is the best in the space but fireye might give you the most beta. >> the fire eye ceo sold his company. >> i love these security firms. the more -- >> absent the takeover rumor. >> absent the takeover rumor but throw that in as a cherry on top. on the sell-off it is creates that opportunity. people start poking around and looking at the names. i love the way fortinet across the board beat beat beat double digits very impressive. google's $11 billion deal that never was.
a new book claiming the internet giant almost made a major play into the auto space. and china's stimulus falling flat. is the china trade officially over. plus the chinese company that went after apple now has its eye on go pro. we compare the two devices and how to trade it ahead on "fast money." it took tennis legend serena williams, fencing champion tim morehouse and the rockettes years to master their craft. but only moments to master paying bills at chase.com. depositing checks at the atm and transferring funds on the mobile app. technology designed for you. so you can easily master the way you bank. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops tdd# 1-800-345-2550 even on the go. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 open a schwab account and you could earn tdd# 1-800-345-2550 300 commission-free online trades. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so when a market move affects one of your positions, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 schwab can help you decide what
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steve's wedding song. >> big day for halliburton. the oil services company reported a better than expected ter but warning of an unprecedented decline in drilling. they've already cut 9,000 jobs 10% of the workforce in the past two quarters and is planning to lay off more employees in the coming months. >> cuts across the board in the whole energy space. the services names seem like they will garner a lot of money that was coming out of refiners. refiners did so well. it was the only space where everyone felt a little secure in the energy world if you can say that. now you start to see the reversal where tesoro and valero are being sold off. the service names are being bought. baker hughes and halliburton, but at this point they're factoring in $75 to $80 barrel of oil and i think that's
overextended. i think you have to take profits, halliburton in particular. >> even if halliburton and baker hughes combine, you don't think that's going to be a good thing? >> it seems like people at least are trying to attack in that area. in terms of the options world, they're coming for the service names and the drillers but really the integrated names, exxon, conoco chevron. in terms of options, the expectations are building in many of these different energy spots. >> next up big news in the world of tesla. according to a new book elon musk almost sold tesla to ghoulingghouloogle for $11 million. apparently musk and page actually shook on a deal before negotiating specifics. guy? >> the company is worth three times -- at least three times that. making argument more than that. i still say stay long tesla. i still think it tested and held that 180 level. i think it blows through 225, but google to me sets up
interesting. the move from january to early march, we basically made a 50% correction of that move to the upside. held 530 i think. i think this rally is into the release on april 23rd and i think you stay long the stock. gag google so not expensive. i think this head fake was to the downside. >> does this show google is willing to pay something -- >> back in 2011 they bought motorola mobility. when you do the math, what would you rather have motorola or whatever, there was a lot of cash in motorola but tesla is a $30 billion market cap. i just can't -- listen i love the product, this company is amazing. they would have had elon musk in the sea level suite in the board. but here is the thing, here is a company that's expected to do $6 billion in sales. they have half the market cap or nearly half the market cap of gm and gm is going to do $160 billion inform sales. the math is just never going to work. something more has to happen in
this trade unless you see some evidence of this mass market product. i just don't know how you can do it without closing your eyes how you can buy this stock without closing your eyes. >> i totally agree. you were buying on a premise, the fact they were going to change the world. the first car company that made the electric vehicle cool. everybody else was driving around the prius. people bought the car not because it was electric because they bought the car because it was cool. now the whole nuance has faded -- >> they're not cool anymore? >> it is cool but there's so many other places you can get the same type of vehicle or coming on a lot more competition. it's a smaller company. you're relying on production levels to be hit. you're relying on china to hit production levels there. i think there's too many question marx for tesla to be bought here. >> next up biotech and pharma giants rallying after presenting the latest data at a conference over the weekend in philadelphia. meg terrell joins us with the highlights from the meeting. big moves on the back of this
news. >> we were talking earlier about some stocks that were down. but let's start with some stocks that are up. bristol meierieyer and merck. seeing a lot of really promising data in lung cancer and melanoma and other kinds of cancers. they're being tested on a lot of tumor types. people are excited about the responses. there was a note from piper jaffray over the weekend saying cancer therapeutics in the next 20 years could be a half trillion dollar business at the rate it's going. trying to turn cancer into a chronic disease rather than something that does tend to kill people and some circumstances very quickly. of course, it gets very expensive and raises issues like that. seeing some good news for merck and bris yol bristol meyer. then on the flip side of that these car t technologies.
this basket of stocks we talked about as being very very volatile. an area of immu know oncology we've talked about, juno and kite, down quite a bit after rising in anticipation of seeing some data in solid tumors at this meeting. they have been very successful so far in blood cancers like leukemia. off of that, there is a new name that just went public last week. stock up 7% because of those same data. essentially the same target. they have a cancer vaccine. some an libss saying the data presented was good for aduro. >> they're filing for another application for nonsmall cell lung and analysts are saying that's a much bigger patient population. could that move the needle for a company of merck's size? >> i think it absolutely would. lung cancer is one of the highest on medical needs. melanoma was.
the problem is how do you differentiate between the bristol-myers brookdrug and the bristol drug. it's going to be very interesting to see how that plays out and right now what we're hearing from the companies is the drugs are more similar potentially than they are different. those are questions we have to start asking. how do you win in this space? >> meg, thank you. meg terrell. pete najarian? >> love the space. i'm in bristol-myers. it's why i'm in merck. one of them i haven't been in in a long time -- >> when did you get in? >> just today. i saw some rolls going on there. i have been talking about them for a long time. i think it's going to test 52-week highs. these pipelines are very, very strong. valuations are low and amgen has great yields. >> if you like bristol, you have to love amgen at 15.5 and amgen
is more volatile. every time the stock recovers to the point that pete just made. i think bristol is one you sort of own and sort of put away. don't trade it and real quick jim cramer likes to talk about bristol-myers. congratulations to j.c. on his nuptials. >> coming up next find out how dennis gartman is playing the latest stimulus move. and the final season of mad men. find out what lionsgate vice chairman has to say about all that. the great thing about "fast money" is you're getting mument. perspectives. >> my specialty is watching u.s. equities. >> i am a long-term investor for sure. >> i have always looked at technicals more than fundamentals. >> i look for unusual options. >> i'm a global trader. i bring the global perspective. >> our investors want to make their own decisions. >> we deliver dozens and dozens
of trades. that's what we do. >> "fast money" week days 5:00 eastern on cnbc. it's how you stay connected to each other and to your customers. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions, including an industry leading broadband network, and cloud and hosting services - all with dedicated responsive support. with centurylink as your trusted technology partner you're free to focus on growing your business. centurylink. your link to what's next.
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more headlines, more developments with bird flu. so the dow jones reporting that the usda says the largest farm in the u.s. to date a poultry farm in iowa housing 5.3 million birds, has been hit by avian flu. we're getting that headline as hormel says several turkey farms that supply it have been impacted by this avian flu as well. that's causing reduced sales volumes though we will say hormel does reaffirm its earnings outlook for the year. also hearing earlier today that wisconsin declared a state of emergency to authorize the state's national guard to contain the virus. so getting some more developments not so good in this case of avian flu that's breaking out in parts of the u.s. back over to you. >> thanks so much morgan brennan. we saw headlines to this effect maybe a couple months ago or so and we saw a lot of these chicken producers, egg producers hit really hard. pilgrim's pride, sanderson farms. >> sanderson farms can't get out of its own way.
way down from its all-time high. i think it's a $65 price target but they do report in may. i think there's an investment conference for them at the end of the week in new orleans. so i think it's a stock that if it can just hold the $75 level it's interesting into their may earnings release. >> new stim lutz measures from beijing failing to lift chinese stocks. indices falling despite news that china central bank cut reserve requirements in a move to encourage lending. lets bring in dennis gartman. dennis, great to have you with us. theoretically this is supposed to be a good news. theoretically it was supposed to free up $200 billion for banks to lend. what happened? >> it's interesting. first of all, i always like to refer to reserve cuts as the 2 x 4 that monetary authorities can use to hit the monetary beast right in the middle of the forehead and get their attention. it's so much more effective than are cuts in interest rates, than
are changes in lending requirements. a reserve cut is something that you have to pay attention to. it was announced yesterday. it's certainly should have sent chinese stocks higher. it did for about 15 minutes and then by the close of trading in shanghai the market closed right on its low. the oldest rule that traders go by is that a market that responds bearishly to very bullish news suddenly should be avoided and i think that's what you have to do in the case of the chinese stock market. it's had an extraordinary run. if you look at some of the etfs for the a shares for example, after tracing out a wonderful midpoint consolidation, another move higher over the course of the past several weeks, it's rallied so quickly. i would not be a buyer of chinese stocks after that. markets that respond bearishly to very bullish news and that was very bullish news are to be avoided. >> it was very bullish. but just to take the other side.
they also announced changes to the margin mirments andrequirements and they were encouraging short selling. it was a push/pull that played out in the markets today to the down sooird. can you actually say it was the market not responding to the reserve requirement cuts or do you think that it could be also the fact that they're sort of clamping down on frothy investments? >> there's no question that they're champing down. there's no question that beijing is very uncomfortable about the fact that the stock market has risen as sharply as it has. and i thought it was interesting that they're going to allow short selling. what was more important was the fact that they're going to expand the use of margins. i mean i thought that was interesting. you hear all sorts of people going in china going to the stock market for the first time because they can use margin. i think that there's -- they are clamping down, they should be doing that but the fact that they had a reserve requirement cut together trumps all other concerns. as a trader i look at that. you should have had a strong rally.
you didn't. i'll avoid that market. i won't sell it short. somebody else can do it. it's a market that's very uncomfortable and very confusing more often than not but i will tell you if you're long and the fact you had this kind of action today better off to go to the sidelines. if you're not long don't get long. >> dennis just quick, we're about out of time but what's your thought on why the etfs, particularly the ones that track specifically china shares were up so sharply today versus what the stock markets did? >> actually they weren't. the ones i looked at her all lower by the end of the day. if they weren't, i bet tonight you're going to see them trading lower anyway. one last thing, the news on that avian flu cannot be construed as very bullish for the grain markets in the united states. that news was coming out late this afternoon. that's going to be very detrimental to the corn market. >> dennis thank you. >> thank you. >> dennis gartman of the gartman letter.
pete, how are you trading china? >> i think there's specific areas i want to be involved in. like, for instance, anything that's related to certain areas that i like very much so here in terms of technology i want to be involved in some of those names. i'm not in it right now but something i know somewhere in the show we will probably talk about china mobile. something like that i'd rather be in names like that and i'll leave the rest of it to the other folks 3w40 want to play that game. >> i think dennis is kind of spot on. if you're looking for pockets of speculative behavior that's obviously one when you look at the shanghai it's up 100% since july. when you see that sort of action, it should raise your antennas a little bit. here is the thing, when volatility is like that in a pretty big market it has the ability to spill over into other equity markets. i think dennis made a great point. you don't have to short it here but you can kind of avoid it and i would also keep a very close eye on some u.s. listed chinese stocks. here is a stock that i have liked. by bidau.
it came all the way back almost friday morning, so to me these are stocks you want to ve hold those levels. you don't want to see them get swept up in the speculative fervor. bidau will be a tell if it can hold 200. >> it's been a tough month for lionsgate. we're sitting down with lionsgate vice chairman michael burns. later, it's the chinese company that went after apple and is taking direct aim at go pro. all the details on the name you need to know straight ahead.
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still ahead on "fast money," live from the nasdaq and new york city's times square "furious 7" could it steal some of the thunder from the "divergent" franchise. and the chinese company that wants to knock apple out of the water setting its sights on go pro. plus microsoft's big earnings report on thursday. we'll get you ready for the news on a very special "options action." time for pops and drops. big movers of the day. we have a big pop for hasbro up 13%. >> crazy quarter. the haves and the have nots in this space. hasbro continues to eat mattel's
lunch even with this move you stay with hasbro. >> a drop for michael kors. >> down 17% year-to-date. it's just not in the limelight np mo one likes it in retail. it got a downgrade today. more room to the downside. not time to buy kors yet. >> a pop for splunk up 2%. >> here is one we were just talking about ibm, talking about potential big data acquisitions. this is a name that's often rumored. there are no earnings. it trades at 13 times sales. i don't know how a company like ibm so justify to their shareholders to get into a space they kind of already are. but the stock is based very nicely. if you think we can see a continuation of momentum the stock could look decent up to 70. >> a pop for china mobile. >> credit suisse very bullish on the entire sector china mobile being one of those names. this name as the buildout of the
4g and the use of data all that sent the stock to 52-week highs. i think they have room to go higher based upon what i think is going to happen with apple. >> and a pop for ben and jerrys. rolling out ice cream -- the ice cream burrito at local scoop shops. today marijuana fans with choose two favorites flavors. the company says the mouth watering concoction is the ultimate munchy cure. >> clearly i understand that i'm out of it but what is april -- >> that was a statement. >> it's like pot day or something. >> i'll explain it to you later. >> let's go straight to michael. shares of entertainment house lionsgate getting a boost on news a director of the company
purchased 35,000 shares but the stock is down 7% when news came out that the chairman had unloaded 10 million shares. joining us in a cnbc exclusive interview is lionsgate vice chairman michael burns. it's a pleasure to have you here in person. >> it's always nice to be here. >> let's talk about the sale. it's interesting timing given all the rumors about the potential interest from a alibaba. >> i take great umbrage in your unloaded comment. i'll tell you why. i had lunch with mark today. it's important to note mark returned the basis to his investors. he's been a long term great shareholder. basically what he did was returned 20% basically to the bases of the shareholders that came in. it's important to note he kept 80% and over $1 billion of stock. >> okay. so in terms -- so when analysts are saying he sold at an
interesting time because of the rumored interest from other parties like alibaba or liberty, you say that's bunk. it doesn't make a difference? >> i don't think that mark's timing of returning the basis back to his limiteds had anything to do with anything except for the fact he wanted to return the capital to his limited partners. >> let's talk about john malone who is now on the board through the stock swap that was completed at the end of march. what do you think his plans are? you're probably more familiar with john's thinking than any of us on the desk but this is an interesting swap because it's the first time he's actually gotten involved with a content creator as opposed to just a distributor. >> i think john publicly says what he really believes and the fact that he is going on our board, i think that's a good thing. it's a great thing for us and i think it's a good indicator of what he's thinking. i don't think john malone did this swap to own 3.4% of lionsgate. i think he thinks much bigger
than that and in a global fashion. he's got a fantastic management team on any of the companies involved from charter to stars to mike at liberty global and obviously david at discovery. so we think this is the beginning of a relationship with a lot of malone influenced companies. >> do you think maybe that thinking bigger than the 3.4% stake means a bigger stake? >> well again, i can't speak for john but i think there's an opportunity for us to work with mike at liberty global for to us work with david, and obviously stars is a premium content player in the paid television space. >> i know it's easy -- it's hard for you to answer this question but a lot of analysts came out around the secondary said the guidance you gave was conservative going into that secondary. would you view that as an accurate statement? you report i think on june 2nd. >> i think what you should look at, we said the guidance was in the range 1.2 to 1.3 of adjusted
adjusted. if you look at what we expect in fiscal 2015 and without giving forward guidance i think it's very important to note just what the amount of -- percentage came from the theatrical fiscal '15 slate which will be less than 20%. so i think that the street sometimes misses just how diversified we are. >> when analysts are saying it's because you're factoring in the less than expected results for "insurgent" and lowered expectations for the "allegiant" movies you're saying that's less. >> we would like a movie to do more business. "insurgent" was the second of a series. the first did $280 million of
worldwide box office. this is going to do -- the second will do close to $300 million. so it is a very robust profitable franchise for us. >> let's talk about furious 7 which is a universal pictures release. how much of the oxygen is that sucking out of the room? >> i think ultimately it's great for the business because what happens is it gets more people to go to the theaters. i think that anytime you have a monster franchise like that it gets people going to the movies and they can see what else is playing. i think it's a net plus. >> michael, got to leave it there, but thanks for stopping by. >> thanks for having me. >> michael burns. you have been a fan for a long time. >> it needed to recaptured $32 level ford norin order for it to reaccelerate. if you're trading this you have to be prudent. let it get to $32, let to close above it, get back in the name. i have to tell you quickly at 17.5, 18 times forward earnings not expensive.
$4.5 billion market cap. huge short interest. it's a name if you don't want to trade it you buy it put it away because i think it goes up. >> i think michael made an important point to the viewers who are looking at this company. he took his cost basis off. he owned this stock for more than ten years and ten years ago he owned 10 million shares. he just sold 10 million in the low 30s. that's prudent risk management. still ahead go pro's worst nightmare. can you tell a difference between these two videos? we'll reveal the difference right after this break.
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for a free 30-tablet trial go to cialis.com now it's going after go pro with an action camera that's half the price but how do they really, really compare? joining us now is eunice visiting all the way from china. you actually brought one. >> this is it. in terms of specs, it actually is better than the go pro, and it is half the price at only $64. you were running the video before. the video looks pretty similar when i talk to a lot of super geeky friends of mine they will
say actually the video for the go pro is better. but actually when you think about it this is the first generation. so this is the first generation xiaomie and this is the hero for go pro. the e is only sold in china but it's really worth watching what they do globally because we've seen a lot of chinese iterations of kind of a go pro rifle come up and they're never very good because they don't know how to integrate the technology. xiaomi has been able to integrate the technology very well. the app works wonderfully with android phones and most of the phones out there are android. >> is it only a matter of time because xiaomi's ceo has talked about expanding, particularly in emerging markets places like brazil with the phone. it's a matter of months maybe a year before that thing goes all
around the world? >> that's possible. i think it could be even sooner. in china it does really well. go pro is also going into china, but they've just started distribution, but the xiaomi does very well and it is very cheap. people have a lot of pride about it and it's just doing really well. i see it as a real competitor to go pro. >> in china. >> in china. if it goes globally it could potentially be a competitor for go pro there, too. >> that video it's really close. you really almost cannot tell the difference between the left side -- >> you can't tell. >> you cannot tell. >> but is it a ubiquitous product? is it like jell-o and q tips? i still believe the brand will win but the stock has been awful. i think against $40 you stay with the stock but i have been wrong now since october. >> or is it like polaroid.
>> i don't think this xiaomi has a shot in a market here. we just don't want a chinese brand. americans have bought into this go pro brand and it's a great point about integrated it with the software. it's never really going to work here. good luck with that. >> i don't know. because i think go pro is going to hit the same people who buy the iphone. so if you like the iphone and you like go pro and they integrate really really well, you will love it and you'll buy the go pro. if you want something that's cheaper and competitive and after a couple of iterations and generations of this one, i think it could sell for the rest of the people who might not be able to afford an iphone or don't like the iphone ecosystem as much. >> thank you. good to see you here. let's get some unusual active and pete's flagging verizon. >> here is what's interesting. if you go back into late february and you look at ge very similar trade. somebody went out to january, went to 2017. they bought the january upside.
the 30/35 call spread. they did it over 100,000 time. that trade worked out because then go fast forward about a month and a half later ge spins off that asset category and the stock pops an enormous amount. those options took off. now today verizon, the january 55/60 call spread trades 100,000 times. very similar looking trade. stock is trading around $49.30 for verizon. just keep an eye on this. all kinds of things in motion right now. certainly this stands out. very large trade, $3.5 million trade. looking to the upside. they paid 35 cents. >> are you in this? >> i am in this. i believe in it. i was in ge. i loved that when that paid off. i'm sticking with verizon. >> later on the strong dollar having a big impact on earnings but how is it impacting market abroad. we'll break down the strong dollar trade plus microsoft jumping 3%. we'll tell you how traders are bidding ahead of its earnings report later this week. more "fast money" straight ahead.
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when my teeth are ready? ♪ ♪ can it tell the doctor how long you have to wear this thing? ♪ ♪ can it tell the flight attendant to please not wake me this time? ♪ ♪ the answer is yes, it can. so, the question your customers are really asking is can your business deliver? microsoft rallied 3% and some traders are betting the stock will see more gains when it reports earnings on thursday. dan nathan is at the smart board with the action. >> the options market is implying a 3.5% one-day move on
friday after its results. in either direction that's a bit more than four-quarter average which has been 3%. today options volume ran really hot. it was 2.5 times average daily bottom. calls outnumber puts 2 to 1. a trader bought 25,000 of the may -- who was closing those calls because they probably are looking out at this earnings event, looking at the strong stock behavior today and looking at the way that some other large u.s. multinationals were trading after the results and, therefore, thinking why cap my gains? when you go over and look at the one-year chart right here, the stock has obviously found a bottom near 41. it's getting up to this $44 level. this is the gap from earnings back in january. it was 9%. it was an eye-popping move. possibly this long holder who covered those calls does not
want to cap their upside into thursday's earnings report. >> on friday on this desk i think pete you were not here but -- dan wasn't on but we went around the horn. nobody liked microsoft. >> facebook yahoo!, microsoft, and google. >> nobody wanted microsoft into earnings. how about you? >> love it. i believe in the ceo. >> it's a giddy upper. >> for or "options action" check out the live show on fridays. time for "ask kensho." nbc universal has a minority stake in kensho. it performs analysis on earnings releases, economic reports, and global data. let's get to today's question. with a strong u.s. dollar perform he thinks what a performance correlation of european and asia markets versus u.s. indexes. the dollar has been on a tear. and there have been four appreciation cycles in the last
four years. here is what kensho said. the dow, s&p, and nasdaq traded positively 50% of the time. the dow and s&p had an average return of 6% while the nasdaq had the highest average return at about 12%. over in europe germany's dax and the ftse both traded positive 50% of the time. the dax scored 22%. and in hong kong and japan, they traded negative. down 24% and down 19% respectively. so thank you v.a. beach guy. let us trade it. maybe the correlation to the u.s. markets since such a surprise. usually it signals economic strength. >> it should but we're in a different world. we don't know when the -- the fed duntoesn't even know when they're going to raise. when you look at the dollar on a long-term basis, upside is slightly capped. risk-reward, you want to be
selling the dollar but that trade has not worked. you don't want to be buying the dollar. i think it's going to favor large cap stocks. >> versus small caps? >> well i still think the small caps is where you get your beta. i think you stay with the iwm above 121. that's going to give you more bang for your buck. >> bang for your buck. get it it was a question of the dollar. >> well played. >> not where he was going. >> i was going to say kensho is a bright guy. it might be a bright woman. >> anyway got a question out there for kensho you'd like to us answer, tweet us @cnbc @cnbcfastmoney. stay tuned. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you
facebook, fb that will get you done. >> thanks for watching. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00. "mad money" with jim kranler starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." people are trying to make friends, i'm just trying to make you money. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc eor tweet me @jimcramer. garden variety days in this market we must always guard against our own human emotions. which often