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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  May 7, 2015 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT

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operating profit in years, talking about a brand that's stood the test of time. >> getting into mobile, good times ahead. >> we'll see if the best times are ahead for the market. the dow up 68, europe closed, what an amazing morning it's been for the german bund and interest rates around the world. let's get to wopner and headquarters for the half. ♪ ♪ welcome to the halftime show, let's meet our starting lineup. joe terranova sheer, along with jon and pete najarian and tom berrick is here, the ceo of colony capital and happens to be chairman of miramax. josh brown is out on the west coast in san francisco today at our bureau at one market street. our game plan today, looks like this -- rate risk -- how high will yields go? in capitals, tom ricketts waear in. plus -- >> i'm rob lowe and i'm scrawny
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arms rob lowe. >> we'll talk to the actor and the biz. we'll stalk about the what the selloff in bonds means for your money. for the moment stocks are steady. not case overnight. investors are gearing up for more volatility in the days and weeks ahead. great to have everybody with us. tom, it's always fun to have you on the show. on the set. talking markets. welcome. >> thanks. >> how do you feel about where we are? you guys have what, $19 billion under management. are you comfortable? are you worried? >> nervous? >> i'm always worried. and i'm always nervous and i am comfortable, right. and our asset class. if you took alternative asset management with real estate as a focus, as an asset class, it's a little bit impervious to these up and down interest rate notions. real estate is a slow-moving train, so it doesn't really
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respond to daily increases or decreases in interest rates. you have a product that takes three years in planning and development. three years in done destruction, three years in lease-up. you match assets with liabilities over time. and as a result, if it's properly done, it's insulated from that kind of roll stilt which is why you see the world in this surplus of capital running back into a postage stamp of capital preservation, which is real estate. >> you sort of, your day to day as an alternative assets. you must have a view of some sort about where we are from equity standpoint. the fed chair janet yellen yesterday making a comment that equity prices were generally overvalued. overheated. are we? >> what's overheated for sure is the supply of capital. right, it's, without being an economist, if you just look and say okay, we had a debt problem in 2007, the way we solved it was with more debt. you took a fed balance sheet
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from $850 billion and made it $4.3 trillion. you're printing money all over the world. every central bank has exactly the same play book. which is all in, all the time. and the plethora of money that's in search of any assert class has forced all asset class managers across all lines. so joe and i were talking about it, the search for value has no risk premium any more. so it's yield, hope, gain, no risk premium. >> joe? >> yeah, we talked about it before. i mean dispersion is so low, i can't tell you how many people in the last month as tom as i have talked about, have automatically become crude oil futures traders, people are searching for yield in asset classes that they do not have their expertise. i do think that the dynamic that has evolved over the last couple of days as it relates to yields, think it's the same trade that happened in crude oil back in march. which he crude was in the mid 40s. everyone told you they thought
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it was going to 70. they were afraid to buy it first they thought it was going to 35. the same thing with yields, everyone believes that treasure i are sale. yields will rise, but no one in consensus is in a position for it. that's exactly what's going on right now in treasuries, the same thing, the same trade and that we witnessed and went through oil. >> i'll borrow a phrase from david tapper, is this nervous time for equity investors because of what we're watching? not only with the ten-year yield, but globally with rates backing up? and the magnitude and the manner and the fashion and the speed in which they are? >> my answer would be yes, it's nervous time. but that doesn't mean that the markets go down because everybody's nervous. it means that you've got to watch the markets in a close way. you look for the opportunities. yesterday because oil did hit $62 and now it's back under 60. take a look at the way the airlines have traded in the last day and a half. getting pounded because oil is up near $62. it's barely eased off the
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numbers an suddenly the explosion to the upside. scott, it's not -- i think the fear factor when you look at volatility. that's telling you something. we in the 12s, we did get back over the 50-day, now here we are over the 200-day and trading in the 15s, touching on 16. so volatility is back in the marketplace. >> josh brown at one market. who you are you thinking about where the markets are today? >> well yeah, i guess to address your question is now nervous time? if you look at the aaii sentiment data from this morning it absolutely is. in fact, we are now seeing the lowest level of bulls in that reading. you have to go back to april of 2013. a full two years ago. in the meantime, the ratio of bulls to bears is about 1.0. which is historically where the markets bounced off of as sentiment has gotten to that level. so i think people are nervous. i think the things happening at the long end of the curve in fixed income markets around the world are somewhat new. countertrend moves because the longer-term if you pull those
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charts back from further than 30 days you'll see the longer-term is still the trend. but yeah, nobody is expecting german bund moves of 20 basis points a day. so as long as that continues, i think on the equity side, people remain nervous, but that's probably a good thing. you don't want everyone to be completely confident. you don't want that kind of overheated condition that chairwoman yellen spoke of. >> speaking of chair yellen, when do you guys have a view of when you think the fed is going to make its first move? do you think it's going to come this year, june, september in or 2016? >> just based on what we know from the businesses that operate within the assets that we own, there's not a whole lot of real inflation that's happening in the real economy. so -- >> rents are going up. >> rents are going up slowly. rents have not even approached 2007 levels if you talk about rents as an example. if you took most urban areas, take chicago, take downtown chicago, urban office building,
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1997 rents, in true, effective rents, include the dollar, improvement costs, leasing, commissions, cap ex, everything that goes into it, roll it forward to today, it's about the same. so all that's happened is cap rate compression and interest rate flux. the rental stream sb the same, right? supply and demand of real estate is a simple form and the great news in the economy is the real estate hasn't been the drunk driver on the economy this time. there's a balance of supply and demand of product. because there's a disintermediation of product. if you take air bnb, orbitz, priceline, uber, everything that's happening in the tech economy, that's not helpful to real estate production. it's disintermediating the utilization of real estate production. >> you have strong thoughts on air bnb. but doc, you want to weigh in on what we're seeing globally? i think it's the most important
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story on the market is what we're witnessing with rates, sort of the currency moves are important. and they've reversed the trend that we were on with the stronger dollar. but now i think that story has been somewhat eclipsed by what we're seeing in interest rates. >> kudos to paul richards, who on this program was saying that when the euro was starting to make the break to the upside, paul, i know you're watching, nyse call. as far as yellen yesterday, judge, i think she did what she wanted to do i don't think anything is off the cuff. i think that was basically as we discussed with liesman yesterday, something she wanted to get out there. just like draghi. if i can stalk this down without having to pull out the bazooka, that's a better thing. ty viks, the treasury yield viks, is up 30% in the last ten days. huge move in volatility. you spoke to it as well. the issue here with moving 20 basis points for a german bund for instance is massive. same thing with our treasuries.
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i think, judge and my bet is on the table already, that after tomorrow's report, we come back down in those yields, now i could be wrong. >> do you think you're expecting a bad report? >> we got right up against the march 6 highs today. yieldwise in the bonds. and i think we're going to pull off of there. but if we're not -- >> because you're expecting a bad report? >> yes, i am. >> jobs report? >> yes, i am and the adp leads us into that as well. the adp revised down other months. not just the one that they're reporting at this time. and of course in the jobs report for march, we saw that the bls took down several months, big time. some of them six figures. so i'm thinking we're going to have another weak report tomorrow. and i think the yields will be down. if i'm wrong, i'll have to reverse it tomorrow, judge. >> joe, i don't know about you, i think the risk is the other way. >> if jon's right, i'm wrong and if i'm right, jon's going to be wrong, or vice-versa, i screwed
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that. but the point being, i believe rates are going to rise tomorrow. in the wake of the report. i think the momentum right now is for rates to continue to move higher. there are concerns that i'm seeing you know, many months ago we had a conversation on the desk regarding liquidity in the fixed income market. pete was concerned about it. i wasn't, i'm now concerned about it based on what i'm seeing. take a look at the hyg, autumn of these etfs, tied to the high yield paper. you're seeing significant outflows right now. now i'm worried. >> now you have some of the biggest investors in the world, whether it's sohn or otherwise, raising the red flag, if you will about what we're seeing in the high yield market. more with tom barrack throughout the hour. thanks to josh brown in san francisco. josh make it back safely. see you on the other side. >> i will, scott. >> okay. what stock are we talking about? we're talking about alibaba. back the stock is ripping on earnings after taking a dive.
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a new ceo. and the owner of the chicago cubs, and bond guru tom ricketts is here talking everything from baseball to bonds. then rob lowe, drops by with his take on the movie business, his latest projects, and who knows what else. opinions. there's no shortage in this world. who do you trust? whose analysis is accurate? how do you make sense of it all? a simple, unbiased stock score consolidated from the opinions of independent analysts... is that too much to ask?
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dom chu is at the market flash desk with more on the alibaba story. not just the earnings that has the stock on the move. >> we're note thagt stock is losing a bit of steam now, scott, shares are currently up by about 7%, off the best levels of the session as you can see in the chart. earnings did beat wall street expectations by six cents a share. revenues came in better than expected. the company is announcing its current coo, daniel zhang will become coo on may 10th. he told cnbc that alibaba experienced a very solid trance
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toigs mobile platforms. a key word for a lot of investors last year. now a key reason for that earnings beat was because of the trance toigs mobile. shares are up about 26% since alibaba went public. the ipo price on the new york stock exchange last september. remember the stock did hit $120 a share post ipo so we've fallen 30% from the levels we saw back then. >>. >> i boughtia hoorks i used it as an excuse to get into yahoo instead of baba. i thought if baba broke it could see mid 75s on the move. i think yahoo down at $40, where it was two or three days ago was a much better value. and it outperformed today. now baba is catching a little bit more of a bid. but you've got three-quarters of the valuation of yahoo is baba.
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so i just took a shot on that one instead. i thought it was a little bit of insulation with the 25% stub they give marissa mayer. >> baba really did report much better than i expected them to, quite frankly. i look at the transitions into the mobile it worked incredibly well for them. now that's 51%. when you look at a lot of the different factors, gross merchandise volume is one of the numbers that people focus on. the earnings they beat. the revenue they beat. dom covered that. what was nice to hear or not hear was all the litigation issues that have been going on in the past that have pushed the stock to the down side. maybe we're past that i've been long the stock, continue to own the stock, i think ultimately the stock does return over 100, back towards 120. i'm note giving you any kind of timetable, but i do like the company, i like what jack ma has created. >> how a guy like you would be thinking about an investment like that, in a place like china, say, a fairly opaque
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market. there have been issues for investors to deal with as it relates to alibaba and other things. >> a guy like me doesn't have the brainpower to be able to cope with it i hardly have the brain power to figure out what to do with a nonmoving asset in the 212 area. when you get into technology and you get into a jurisdiction that has little transparency, a confused legal system, a very, very cultural system. and is somewhat opaque, it's just -- a place that investors like i should not go. >> you invest in technology stocks or things like that in general? >> sure. on a personal basis, i invest in technology stocks that are within my wheelhouse, since i trip into my house through the garage with amazon boxes, it looks like an amazon logistics center when i come home, it's interesting until i go to look at the p & l and say this company has been in existence for 20 years -- >> they don't make a whole lot of money. >> yeah. >> i'm admiring of it.
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i understand what it's doing to our society. i'm very confused because i still go back to the basics of i need a p & l and the balance sheet. >> are you saying you do not known amazon stock, or do you? >> i do, my kid's on amazon. >> how do you get your arms around that. what bezos is doing, building out the business, not wanting to listen to wall street. for the most part. and doing what he's doing. he's going it make money whenever he's going to make it. that's his thinking. >> he's right. if we were just looking at it as a sports team or any competitive set, you would say, what i want to do is grab market share. everything i can grab first, once-day that, i'll own all the distribution channels and then i'll worry about pricing. so he's just intermediating everything and deet nominator is moving constantly. it's not inappropriate that he's redistributing profit. he's reinvesting in the distribution channel that he's going to own and have a barrier to market share for everybody else. i don't understand it well enough to put a financial matrix
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to it. i just like it. and believe that those disintermediations in the future are going to be significant. >> and like the boxes coming to your garage. >> exactly. >> the stocks making headlines today. lumber liquidators and whole foods, we'll talk about the moves and trades. first a look at how the major averages are faring right now. choppy couple of days. there we go, positive and at the highs of the day as well. rising rates. opinions. there's no shortage in this world. who do you trust? whose analysis is accurate? how do you make sense of it all? a simple, unbiased stock score consolidated from the opinions of independent analysts... is that too much to ask? nope. equity summary score, powered by starmine, will help you
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get your credit swagger on. become a member of experian credit tracker and find out your fico score powered by experian. fico scores are used in 90% of credit decisions. at least suspending it, judge. here are the judges on the tape with whitney tillson, talking about materially increased his short position on this, mr. tilsen is thinking this could be their wan song. we'll see -- -- swang song. it was getting a pop earlier. >> said the stock should be down
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20% on the news that the gain in the stock today was in his words, a gift. as i reported earlier. he did materially increase his short position you know continue to follow that story. stock is up 2.5%. ann is in talks to be sold do golden state capital. ann inc. >> the company needs something in the way you're going to make money off of this is not to follow on the equity side. maybe if you have the opportunity on the debt side, to grab some of the bonds related to ann, do that. but i would not follow along here, hoping for someone to come in and save ann taylor, and someone will. >> pete what happened with whole foods? >> i like the stock on this pullback. what happened was yeah they did miss on certain areas. they missed on revenues in line with the actual earnings, but they're still up 10% year over year in terms of the revenues, there are numbers out there they introduced a new smaller concept store. taking a little page away from wal
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walmart, away from target. i think it's a buy at these levels. >> keurig green mountain. jim cramer called this one of the worst calls ever. >> it had to be. you know, the trio of bad is when you miss on eps, you miss on bottom line, miss on top line sales and you guide lower and the guidance was horrible. >> said the analysts were peppering the company on the call and it was, i think as jim said, it was crickets in response. >> there was no answer from management and then they have 80 basis points or theres about as how much the margin shrank year-over-year. if anybody was still holding on to this thing, i can't believe it's got a $5 bounce, even though the selloff is extreme, i wouldn't touch it. >>fy want to learn how to trade options like jon and pete, check out the invest like a monster june 26 and 27 in the place with bad weather, san diego. >> it's terrible in san diego. >> a tough gig, guys.
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go to now to register for that event. coming up, a view from the c suite on bonds and baseball. tom ricketts is chairman from end capital what we're seeing from him in the standings and in the bond market. plus rob lowe has been in the entertainment business for more than 30 years. we're going to get his take on where the industry is heading, when we come back.
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here's your cnbc news update this hour. u.s. marines are delivering supplies to remote areas in nepal, hit hard by the earthquake. the department of defense releasing video of the troops loading and osprey aircraft earlier dmt week. supplies include food, shelter and hygiene kits. homeowners insured through the national flood insurance program who think they were short-changed for super storm sandy damage are getting another chance for reimbursement. fema plans to mail out letters next week to nearly 142,000 policy-holders who filed sandy-related claims. a new state-of-the-art russian tank was paraded through central moscow for the final
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victory day rehearsal. the military parade will take place on saturday, which marks the 70th anniversary of the victory over nazi germany in world war ii. and the big guy takes a faushlgs shaquille o'neal, ouch, all 7'1", 325 pounds of him fell on his face as you can see during the halftime show between the los angeles clippers and the houston rockets last night. his foot apparently got caught in some cables on the fall. shaq wasn't injured, thank goodness. but video went viral. and we really hope he's okay. that's your cnbc news update at this hour. who left the cable out, scott? i mean really. >> the floor might be injured. the euro is snapping the four-day streak. >> that's right you know we're watching the euro cooling off a little bit. but hit a 10-week high against the dollar. scott nations, how much could tomorrow's job number impact the
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euro trade, and how? >> currency traders are looking for a strong report. they expect our economy is doing really well. and so that would be a problem for the euro. why? because if our interest rates go higher. then you have to remember that the germany ten-year rate is still only a tiny fraction of what ours is. that's going to put pressure on the euro if we have a nice number tomorrow. >> jeff killberg, what levels are you watching? >> jackie, i think the trajectory is lower. we were due for a pullback and a pop up in the euro. the maxwell street polish sausage cart guy on lasalle and jackson was talking about the euro going to parity. the focus should be 115.46. the february 3rd high, if you look on the daily chart that provides great resistance, utilize that if it gets short again, jackie. >> for more on the euro and the actual trade, tune in to the online show, we're talking to the controversial peter schiff, whey has to say about the fed,
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scott, it may surprise you. 9 global spike on interest rates has investors on edge. let's bring in tom ricketts, chairman and co-founder of in-capital. it's underwritten more than $400 billion in debt deals and is owner and chairman of the chicago cubs. he joins us exclusively today from chicago. tom, welcome, great to have you on. >> good morning, guys. >> i've called you a bond guru, we're going to lean on you for your knowledge today. what do you make of what we're seeing globally with the back-up in rates? >> well i mean obviously despite a relatively weak first quarter in growth. you've seen interest rates yields are up about 50 basis points on the ten-year. i don't know what's happening next. think a lot of people are going to be watching europe and see how the stimulus there, what kind of demand we're going to get out of europe. you know, i think that the good news is at least from a capital standpoint, we provide investors a lot of different alternatives in this relatively low interest
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rate environment. >> when is your best guess as to when you think the fed is going to move? >> i don't know. i think we've got to see some sustained growth. and you know, i don't think we have it yet. so -- i really couldn't tell you. and also, i would also advise people not to try to guess too much. and not try to anticipate moves and just try to be smart and consistent in what they do. regardless of the movements in the interest rate market. >> are you surprised at the move, you know, look the ten-year note yield got to 230 today. before it dropping tep bips, that's a volatile move for half a day. >> that's a lost volatility. but you know there's a lot of people that are you know, kind of on edge waiting for some moves, i think that maybe drives some of it. but it's really hard to tell what's going to happen next. >> doc? >> tom, i just have a quick question for you regarding the
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$1.1 trillion that draghi and the ecb are spending basically buying up bonds. don't you think as i do, that with the little bit of pop to the upside now, it brings many of those bonds right back into focus? in other words they said they would buy them down to negative yields, now they have the opportunity again to buy them when they have these positive yields? >> good question. you know i'm not as close to what you know where the european bonds are trading as, as i probably should be in answer to that question. but i think you're right, i think that's going to be a big part of that. >> tom, do you have a view on what's taking place in high yield? there's some very smart investor who is have billions and billions of dollars who have made comments over the last week alone, a good handful, that have called them you know either a very dangerous place to be. a very risky place to be. a bubble that's going to come crashing down the minute that rates start to rise. >> i think when you look at high
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yield. i don't like to talk about it as an entire category. think you have to be careful and specific about what kind of high yield you're discussing. obviously the macro risk is that people in an attempt to chase higher returns, get themselves in developments where the risk is greater than what they anticipate. i think anyone getting into high yield any time should be careful, particularly now. >> understand you have a new ceo, you want to tell us about this person? >> yeah. we're, we're very happy at incapital. we've got a new leader, john dupree, he joins us after an incredible career in the insurance industry, several great years as the ceo of john hancock. i think he understand what is investors need. and how incapital can help investors get what they need. >> we're going to keep you to the other side of the break and talk some baseball what about what's taking place in the eurozone itself? do you have a view on the situation there, greece and otherwise and how you think it
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may play out? >> you know, i wish i really don't. i got to be honest. you know i read what i read in the paper. i don't have a strong opinion on what's going to happen next in greece. >> we'll keep you to the other side and talk some baseball an the other side of the break. coming up we continue our conversation with tom ricketts on his other business, he's the owner as we said of the chicago cubs. we talk the value of the team, wrigley field renovations, much more. here at td ameritrade, they work hard.
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yellen, rattling investors with their comments yesterday about stock market valuations, so are stocks really overvalued and where are the bargains now? we've got some smart plays, utilities are the worst-performing sector in the s&p so far this year. there are three stocks in the sector that may still be worth a second look at these levels.
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our tyler mathison at a major investing conference in d.c. big lineup including the ceo of fund giant vanguard and the ceo of charles schwab. join us for the full two hours. back to you. >> mannedy, thank you so much. we're back with tom ricketts and the ricketts family bought the chicago cubs in 2009 from real estate magnate, sam zell for $845 million. tom, you're a pretty good trader that $845 million i think is now worth something like $1.5 at least billion. >> well, you know, that's not the most important thing to us. obviously. it's about winning. but i think from a market and timing perspective, there was a lot of a lot of uncertainty in the market that helped us some. >> i short-changed you by $300 million. it's $1.8 billion. >> off to a good start, 14-12, second place behind the cardinals, how do you feel about
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the cubbies? >> i feel really good. we spent several years building a foundation of good young players. and they're starting to perform. >> and i think we're going to have a great summer at wrigley. think we'll be in the mix for our division title. i think everyone should be excited about the future of the cubs. >> i have colony's, tom barrack on the set with me today as well. i know he would like to ask you something, tom. >> tom, i'm a great fan of yours and the vision and leadership of these teams is dynastic and what you are doing and plan something like a vineyard, it's brilliant. but what i think the most brilliant thing is you're the only person i know. i'm a founding member of the sam zell fan club, you're the only living person who hay ever made money buying anything from sam in the aftermath. >> well, you know, it is maybe that's nice to be in that group. but for us, it's really about trying to win the world series. >> hey tom, i've got jon
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najarian, here, too, a chicago guy. >> love them. we're doing some business with tom full disclosure, with tom and incapital, coming out with some uits, judge. so tom, i love ha you've built in jk and not only the improving the team on the north side, in chicago, but bringing in all the jobs and everything with incapital. so fantastic job. >> tom, where are we -- >> a really nice success story. >> where are we in the renovations of wrigley? >> we're getting there. it's a multi-year process. i think that you know, what's happening for the next home stand is the left field and center field bleachers will be open and the right field bleachers will be done by june 11th. and then the entire bleacher renovation will be wrapped up toward the end of june. so we're getting there. but it's going to take several years. it's the first major renovation that park has ever had. it's a lot of steel and concrete and a lot of stuff fans don't see. so it's a few years away from being what we would call done.
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but it's well under way. >> tom, it's joe, terranova, a big baseball guy, grew up around the game and i run a youth baseball organization. the question i have for you is simple -- on the weekends we have games and i've got to send emails out to make sure the kids aren't playing lacrosse, soccer, spring football or hockey. how do you get the kids engaged, the way scott and i used to be watching on wgn, your cubs games at 2:00 a.m. in the afternoon and getting a world series game during the day? how do you get the kids engaged? i keep hearing from major league baseball, they want to be. but boots on the ground, they're not. >> well you know, what we found in major league baseball's researchers, we do pretty well with kids up to about 12 or 13. there may be a slightly smaller number of kids playing little league. but the fact is, that when we start to lose fans -- it's when they're in their teens and they look for something maybe with a little more, a little more sizzle. they get into the nfl, they go to college. we get them back when they're
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24, 25 and they're looking for the social atmosphere of a baseball game. so i think our challenge is to get more kids playing. keep them in the game longer. and make them lifetime fans. but i mean in any type of every sport has that challenge, everybody has to just keep making sure that you're relevant to the younger fans. >> hey tom, appreciate you spending sometime with us today on both bonds and baseball. i know we'll talk to you soon. >> thanks a lot, guys. >> incapital's tom ricketts and cnbc will be notice cubs hometown of chicago on may 19th for our first-ever iconic conference, we're bringing together influential entrepreneurs like mark cuban to explore the topic ever innovation and entrepreneurs, join us there, live, head over to to register. coming up, actor rob lowe is here. we talk to the state of the movie business, what viewers really want and much more. [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops.
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so open an account with schwab. and when a market move affects, say, a cloud computing stock you're holding, we can help you decide what to do. with tools that help you see how market activity is affecting your positions. so when the time comes to decide whether to scale in or scale out... you can make your move, wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪
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reigning champ joe terranova making moves in our halftime portfolio challenge. he bought a bearish bond etf, the tbt and he sold out of pioneer natural resources. what? you sold pxd? >> absolutely. >> i want to listen to what you
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said a couple of years ago. >> play it. >> here's joe from a couple of days ago. >> i disagree with what david is saying right now. 91% of their production for 2015 is hedged at $70. 6 a% of their production in 2016 is hedged at $70. we're going to hear from the company tomorrow, they're going to report earnings, i think it's going to be a solid quarter. >> okay. >> okay. did you hear what i just said? i said they're going to report earnings tomorrow, i think it's going to be a solid quarter. i'm here to make money. i'm not here to make sure that the headlines that we make are correct. the quarter wasn't a good quarter. the stock is down, i'm also of the opinion that crude oil is now a headwind for a lot of the energy equities. i had a conversation yesterday morning with mark fisher who is a mentor to me. we talked about oil potentially topping out, he suggested to me with a lot of the rolls coming that yesterday could be the day you had a near-term correction coming. that's obviously happening now.
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do i think david einhorn is correct about $78 for pxd? no, i don't. do i think pxd is a survivor in shale? yes. do i think they're a prime takeout candidate as rich and i talked about the other day, he disagreed with me. yes, i do i think they're a prime candidate. but ultimately the right now the risk/reward when i measure it there's more potential down side in pxd than upside. >> so i can be clear, you made the case at sohn or pa seeno if oil goes down to $40 a barrel. that he could be right. about some of the names. >> absolutely. >> are you saying that now you think as well we're going to go from 60, wherever we are today, 60 and change back down to 40? >> i think that i've spoken with a lot of confidence about where i thought the price of oil was going to go over the last six weeks. and that was higher. i no longer have the same degree of confidence that oil can
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continue to go higher. does it go down significantly? i have no clue. otherwise i'd be short. i don't know. but i do know that a lot of what david said the other day about the fracking industry is correct. i'm not going to sit here and name names on air about who would be in trouble. but i don't think pxd or eog, i don't think those two companies would be at the top of the list. >> okay. remember, you can follow all the action at we are back with tom barrack in addition to running a real estate company, he is also the chairman of miramax films. and one of his movie partners joins us now on the phone. actor rob lowe. rob, welcome back, nice to talk to you again. >> thanks, good to be back on with you guys. >> when people, i tweeted out you were coming on, of course the first thing people said which rob lowe, the painfully awkward rob 0 lowe? peaked in high school rob lowe? or super creepy rob lowe? >> when you get me, i bring a
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plethora of personalities. >> you do. were you surprised at how popular with people not all people, depending on what business they're in of course, but with a lot of people, how w popular these ads became? >> it was unbelievable. i knew creatively they were fun, submersive, smart, that's why i wanted do them. but when the subscribership numbers came in t blew peoples minds. any time you have one of the biggest conglomerates in the world after your butt, you know you're doing something right. by the way, i am rob lowe, i have comcast. >> i'm a hession soldier, you
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pay. >> what's next for you? >> i have a -- ironically i have a show with comcast, with nbc that they'll be announcing this week in the up-fronts that i'll be a part of. i have a show that i executive produce and star that is my next real project for fox. and we're in the process of figuring out where that will go. we'll announce that hopefully on monday as well. >> what's exciting to you in the media business these days? there's so many changes seemingly taking place almost weekly with a new announcement from somebody about something new. >> well, what's great from my perspecti perspective as a story teller and content provider as a producer and actor, is the days used to be when your show got canceled it was a death sentence. yesterday "the mindy project" apparently was canceled.
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not a death sentence for them. they'll get two years at hulu it looks like. and that all happens in the course of a day. you can have a show that you make, everybody is excited about, maybe isn't a great fit, the network can instead of canceling it, lay it off at netflix like they did with the tina fey show. it's almost like a social safety net for creative people. >> rob, it's tom. nobody is better than you as a renaissance man in the business. >> thank you. >> rolling through what's happening, when you go to vod, cable, broadband, day and day delivery, over the top. bundling, the veracious appetite for episodic tv, at the end of the day as we sit in miramax -- miramax was just another sil o,
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intellectual property is the real estate of the future. you're selling ultimates, discounted cash flow of those values based on customers, those customers happen to be a litany of new digital recipients. rob is right on the precipice of being a dealer of content, owner of a distribution entity, as a whole industry as unbundling. who is the winner at the end of the day here? is it cable? is it the retailers? distribution? is it the manufacturers? who wins? >> i think ultimately it will be the content providers, whatever they look like, whether it's the actual initial content providers or story tellers like me, or if it's the people who really finally figure out how to watch day and date on your smartphone.
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that's the real question who will emerge from that world. what is interesting from me that people don't think about, when you can binge watch "house of cards" or unbreakable kimmie schmit or all of these shows that two years ago would have been on cable or network television, the experience is so different for the consumer and so different for the creator. the consumer gets to watch it all in one night or over a long weekend or they don't get to watch it at all, they sit and save it and get to it when they can. in the old days, weapons night, new episode of the west wing, thursday, everybody talked about it. those conversations doesn't happen anymore because people are watching it when they want to watch it. just on every level it's a
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completely new world. >> rob, before i let you go, what excites you in terms of investing? your buddy, tom barrack, is about as good as they come when it come to real estate. what is it for you? >> i always like things that i can put my hand observe, look at, walk on. i've always been a big real estate person. i think the most desirable places on the planet will always be the most desirable places on the planet. that's where i had my -- personally my best results. that's usually where i stick. >> you do pretty well as an author as well. "love life" is not a new -- is a new version? >> out in paper back right now. >> paper back. >> picked by "usa today" yesterday as editor's pick. fun news to wake up to. >> a few of us have read only of your books, we'll have to go out and grab that, too can't thank you enough for take the time to
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chat with us today. >> i love being with you guys. appreciate it. >> we'll talk to you soon. best of luck. coming up, three hours left in the trading day. your game plan for the second half is up next. ♪ ♪ [ girl ] my mom, she makes underwater fans that are powered by the moon.
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some of our traders are in training for the wall street decathlon. they're challenging wall street's best athletes, it's for a good cause, memorial sloan t kettering cancer center. stop by, let the team make you a drink for a very, very good cause. time for top trade fors for the second half what should we be thinking about? >> capital preservation, go
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slow, baby steps. think of your customer, your client, stick to your main business. >> always fun having you. >> thanks. >> keep an eye on the airline, the way they bounced back. >> ryland, i bought it today. >> stay tuned at 1:00, yelp is halted. >> "power lunch" is next. take it away. >> you wonder where your money is? i'll tell you, the people who run about $18 trillion worth of it are right here in washington at investment company conventio. we'll talk to some of the best and brightest in the next couple hours. we'll lead off with walter bettinger, we'll ask what the retail investor is thinking now and are they ready


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