tv Fast Money CNBC June 8, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
>> i know you noticed the airlines today got crushed p if you take a look at the individual components, american airlines, jetblue, they actually declined even more. we've got the trade technically as well as fundamentally here on the desk. >> that was another head scratcher. they've really been under pressure. so eager to hear more, melissa. straight over to you guys. >> thank you, kelly. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. your traders on the decemberric tim seymour, pete najarian, karen finerman and guy adami. musk's next big car. tesla finishing the day up 3% as elon musk revealed details about the tesla model 3. we'll hear from the man himself and an analyst who thinks tesla could rally another 30%. american pharoah breaking a 30-year streak. but an incredible statistic tie the triple crown winners could spell pain for your portfolio. we'll explain why. but first we start with the news of the day and that would be apple. the company announcing a slew of updates and services at today's worldwide developers conference. let's get straight to cnbc's josh lipton who is live on the
ground in san francisco with the latest on this developing story. josh. >> well, today apple creating here the apple music. that's a new service, melissa, which ceo tim cook says is going to be a game changer. it's going to be revolutionary. the open question, though, is apple music different enough from the competition? there's basically going to be three main parts to the service. you're going to have a streaming component, which is curated not just by algorithms but by real music experts hand picked by apple. you have a 24/7 radio service with its own channels and djs and a new feature that's going to connect artists and fans more directly. of course with this, melissa, apple now finds itself going head to head with entrenched rivals, like spotify, for example, which claims 60 million users, 15 million of whom are paying subscribers. so how many of those users does tim cook think he can get to am music? bottom line for investors.
piper's gene muns fehr says even if, though, apple matches spotify he crunched the numbers and munster said it would add less than 1% to revenue in 2016. but munster says there won't be those kind of material financial impact in the near or even intermediate term but he does see important strategic benefits in this new service, mostly improving the iphone user experience and keeping more users on that ios platform. melissa, back to you. >> thank you, josh lipton. for more on apple and the music service let's bring in colin gillis, bgc's director of tech analysis. he's got a hold rating on the stock has had it since january. great to see you. >> great to be here. >> do you agree with this notion nat streaming, it's not about the revenues from the service itself, it's about keeping people on the platform? >> not necessarily because you know, they're rolling it out onto android. and revenue is revenue. they want to take it and they want to build the services lair. the problem is that apple's had so much success with the iphone
and they're so dependent on that product, right? with the margin profile of it. that any of these products that look enticing are barely going to dent the needle. we heard people saying it's going to be less than 1% of revenue. even at maturity. let's say you've got 100 million users. spot foois got around 60 million of which 15 are paid. pandora around 80 million users. so 100 million is a big number. $120 a year. so you're looking at $12 billion. you get 20 cents on a dollar maybe? that's a little north of 2 billion. you pay taxes on it. it's still less than 4% of net income. this is a company that's going to do over $50 billion in net income -- >> again, if you don't look at it just solely as the revenue stream but as another reason for me to keep my ipad, my iphone, my ieverything. isn't that a pretty decent reason? >> i mean, you know, you want to be involved in that services lair. you want to be involved in the
music. right? it is a critical part of it. some people may ask why are all these companies pushing into this area when there's already decent solutions out there? they're not necessarily adding anything different. curation. the price point's all the same. this is going to be an important test to see if they can just use their marketing heft to push customers onto this platform. >> let me ask you about apple pay. do you have any hopes of that really taking off and becoming a very important thing to customers? >> i think that's -- again, that's just a tool to sell phones. the margin profile on that is even worse. right? i mean, 15 bips. so you know, 15 cents on every $100 transaction. you've got to have a massive amount of commerce flowing through. maybe it will happen. maybe they can go upstream more. it's nice to see them putting these groundworks in. let's see how they extend. >> you seem to be pooh-poohing everything that is not the direct sale of a phone.
>> no. i'm just saying this is what drives the bottom line -- >> -- pay should be a great thing even if incrementally. if it incrementally gets tham more people to buy a phone then incrementally that makes the story work better. >> you want them to be doing these types of things. this is what they should be doing. all of the updates to the software, this is what their business is. they want to build that stack of utilities to keep you buying the phone particularly if you start to see subsidies start to go away. as opposed to the news that came out of wwdc today i think the much bigger news is at&t is no longer going to be offering two-year subsidized contracts on phones through third-party channels like best buy or the apple store. they're phasing that out. you can only get that at an apple store -- or at an at&t store. and in fact, ralph de la vega said that subsidies are going to slowly go away. and that's going to have a major negative impact on apple. >> all right, colin, good to see you. >> thank you 37.
>> colin gillis of vgc. the stock didn't do anything today and it's been sort of in a resting period as carl oxenworth would say. >> but for that little move up in march, he's effectively got it cold because the stock has not done much. i think it's in a basing pattern. we've talked about it before. i do think it makes the next leg higher. the level that i would be concerned and say maybe you have to take another look is through that march low which i think was 121 1/2. >> that run that was -- >> no, absolutely. >> it's been a pretty impressive move, but now it's been sitting there for so long that we've all gotten frustrated. i think to colin's point today when you're looking at what they actually produced it wasn't anything earth shattering. it was everything we kind of expected apple to put out there in front of us. but we always go into this expecting one more thing, this last thing to come out of the pocket, whether it was jobs or now tim cook. but you'll expect that one thing. we never really got that one thing. so it didn't move the needle.
i would say technically the stock's sitting right on the 50-day moving average right now. it holds that support, i do think we go toward those 140s. we break through that i think we're down toward the low 120s. >> i think the apple music, while we just talked about how it's not moving the needle, is an important thing and all these things they're adding are supposedly almost the bridge to turn this company into more of a software and a services company away from hardware. meanwhile, we all know it's about hardware. in fact, the good news is that actually last month at least if you read ubs's stuff they were at 50.1 in terms of their units sold, which is better than expectations even though it's down, everybody thought it was going to be down. to me for a company that's going to refresh every three years and probably do what they just did, what they're doing right now is fine. and at multiple that they're doing, which is x cash around 13 1/2 times next year's numbers, this stock is worth owning right now. i bought it three weeks ago as it pulled back to 126. as these guys just said key levels 118 and 110. any of these levels i'd be buying more. >> nothing really blew me away today. some of the stuff i thought was interesting, when you make these
big, big moves you can only then sometimes fill it in win kremtal stuff. so i'm hanging on to it right here. for me to trade around it i have to know when to get out, when would i get back in, and then pay taxes on it and then expect to do better than that. i'll just hang on to it. >> am part of a bigger sell-off in technology today. facebook, e bay, intel. what is the deal on technology? the chips in particular pete stood out to me. micron and xpi, avago. >> the smh actually hit new highs last week and hit over 60 and now all of a sudden we're in the mid 50s, 56 area. certainly there's a little bit of concern out there in terms of the technology and the sell-off. and is this another rotation into the psych many of something else? are they going to move away from certain areas of technology or the chips specifically and where is the next leg? i like the way microsoft traded today. that was one of those names that hung in there, sold off a little bit late. this is one of those names that just continues to want to hold on to the gains. >> you did not like the way ibm traded. >> other than the big move up to
175, what it appears to me, maybe there was something in the works, maybe they were in the sweepstakes for salesforce.com, maybe hasn't come to pass. that stock's going back to levels that it should be at if not lower. facebook to me really disappoints me. i keep thinking it's going to blast through that 85 level that it's had trouble with a number of times. looked like it last week. and then today right back down to 80 bucks. i still think facebook is okay. they report on july 21st, i believe. i do think ibm's making that next leg lower, though. >> still ahead on "fast," elon musk revealing details on the new tesla. ahead of tomorrow's shareholder meeting. we'll hear from the man himself right after the break. it is the one sector of the market that could be signaling a broader sell-off. we'll tell you what it is and what it could mean for the rally. and later, did obama stop the dollar in its tracks? reports on the president's
comments at g-7 spurring a sharp sell-off. the commodities king dennis garman will tell us if it's just the start of a bigger move lower or maybe a buying opportunity. back after this. you have to wear this thing? ♪ can it tell the flight attendant to please not wake me this time? ♪ the answer is yes, it can. so, the question your customers are really asking is, can your business deliver?
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take a listen. >> some airlines are talki inin, 10% growth rates. they can't believe they had that kind of kemd growth. so what they must believe is that these economics, they can fly more than they used to fly. look, i don't think that's right. but again, that's a lot different than the past where we all took the good times to try and like kill each other. >> that day that week that's when the airlines really started to take a turn. that day i think it was, pete. you said you know what? this is buy. >> i thought it was a great opportunity. >> you're sticking by that. >> and i -- unfortunately, they broke that. we also talk about the 200-day moving average. and these names broke through that. but it's continued to stay underneath that. you look at america, you look at united you look at delta they've really struggled ever since then. this is exactly why trade school, why i'd rather be in the options than the stock, because in the stock we've had a great run.
you had to rotate out. it's very much like the way i think you had to trade something like a yahoo!. great move to the up side, finally you've got a jump out of the stock start using the options, risk reward and now the risk was that this stock's continued this decline. it's exactly what they have done. we know exactly a defined risk in terms of the down side. and that's why the options are here, make more sense than ever. >> raymond james also cutting american airlines to a market perform. specifically -- >> god, they're cheap, though. these names -- >> really, really cheap. >> american airlines the competition specifically in the dallas-fort worth. >> southwest. >> they're competing against southwest and the capacity there. >> price disciplines there is what they've gsh. >> this is kind of the way you have to look within the industry, you have to go relative value, some of the smaller more regional guys against the big boys. i think the big boys are the guys where the prasm is most under pressure where the -- >> passenger revenue per -- >> per available seat miles. this is the case where everybody's priced things as bad as they got. offset by low fult. this is very cheap. if you think these guys are going to throw five years out
the window in the next six months then you sell them. but i wouldn't be -- >> i'm afraid of the industry. clearly the momentum part of the trade is very much over. people thought yeah, yeah, but it's going to turn. so i wonder at what point do you feel that fundamentals are a bottom even if of course it could trade lower and through that. but are we maybe saying we're past that now? i don't know. >> i think that's where we're getting. >> next up in our top trades not loving mcdonald's. the burger joint reporting its 12th straight move same-store sales declines. they had great sales in europe. >> europe sales were up 2.3% i think much better than everybody was looking for. but u.s. sales continue to flounder. that's really the key. you can say asia pacific, middle east and africa but the u.s. is still where it's at. i'm still of the belief 18 times forward earnings it's not crazy expensive it's not cheap, you get a good dividend. but now three times over the last three years the stock has had trouble, 103, 104. seemingly can't get through. here we are at 96 again. it just doesn't feel right. i think you're in no man's land
here. i've said it before. i think you'd rather buy if on a breakout if it gets above 105. otherwise you're looking for the high 80s where is what it could trade down to. >> i like it back at these levels. the stock cannot break above 103 but it's also holding everywhere, every time it rests down here on a bad same-store sales print around 93 to 95. that's where the stock is. the european beat i think was very good. u.s. comps were expected to be very weak. no new news in here and it's a company that a lot of people are expecting some major transformation. that is your tale and that is something that's still there. immense value in the land, in the franchise mix. all these things are working for you. >> tesla charging to a year-to-date high after brokerage firm robert w. baird upped its price target to $335. and earlier today elon musk offered new details about the company's next big car at the edison institute convention today. take a listen. >> we're working on our third generation car which is a smaller car that's meant to be an affordable long-range electric car which is the model
3. and that's due out in may 2017. so and that's going to be about $35,000 and have at least 200-mile useful range. hopefully more than that. >> let's get more on this from the robert w. baird analyst who raised the price target today. ben, great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me on. >> crux of your call, crux of the price target raise is skepticism. basically saying it's a bull's friend because there's skepticism. and skepticism about the tesla energy business. at the same time the stock is up 30% from its march low. where are you seeing the skepticism? because it doesn't seem to be in the stock. >> sure. that's why we raised our price target today. last week we fielded lots of questions. as you said, the stock's off its lows, about 27%. we wanted to put our conviction out there and raise our price target. that's one of our reasons. but still people think the x is
going to be delayed. we think it will be out in q3. so whether it's august or september, initial deliveries not a big deal. but i think all the fanfare around the model x launch, reports around it and reviews around it will help the stock go higher. then on tesla energy a lot of people think this has been a big part of the move. it has been some of the move. but still, people don't think the power -- the home battery system is economical, and they don't think about the power pack and how big of a revenue opportunity that is. it wasn't built into our numbers. we did add some into 2016 and beyond. none to this -- still some up side to our numbers this year from the battery sales but still lots of skepticism. >> for model x when elon musk called in to "power lunch" a couple weeks ago i asked him specifically about model x if the production lines wrup and ready to go. he declined to comment. he said he wanted to wait till the shareholder meeting. what do we think we'll get from
the shareholder meeting? do you think we'll get a glimpse of the car? will it be something where it will be a catalyst for the stock? and it will allay the fears of the bears out there. the people who are skeptical of the x launch on time. >> i've been looking for the x to launch in july. i've been warming up to the idea we might get a glimpse of it tomorrow. regardless it's just going to be the first step. and like i said, we'll get more information as, you know, news agencies review it as "consumer reports" review, it motor trend reviews it, people get to test drive it. so it's the beginning of a long string. tesla releases its second car out on the road, which does a lot of things. it opens up the addressable market, shows they can develop another car, and then you know, gets more cars on the road so it gets a brand out there. >> we've got to believe it there. but thanks so much for calling. appreciate it. >> take care, guys. >> ben kallo of baird. on a bad tape tesla did pretty nicely helped in part by this call. i'm just curious, guy, now that it's above 250 -- >> i think it still goes higher.
we've done a decent job. if it gets to 225, somebody's off to the races that's effectively what's happened. up 3% today on a lousy tape. i think it pushes up to september highs which was 290 or so. and we'll see what happens when we get there. but i still think you want the stock. >> power pack which was the battery for commercial specifically. saying people underestimating the commercial side of the impact of power pack as opposed to just residential. and how it could actually benefit all solar. >> there's a lot of companies. solar edge sells -- they'll be using their micro invertebrate. it's a great product. i don't get the valuation. a lot really has to go right. so far it has. i don't know. not for me. >> coming up, an unlucky bet on the casinos. we'll tell you why names like wynn and mgm sold off hard today and why it could just be the beginning of a vicious losing streak. but first here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> what compactly were these two people talking about? >> do you have another question?
>> maybe it was germany's stock market, which is on the cusp of doing something very scary. we'll tell you what that is and how you can profit. and later, did american pharoah's historic triple crown win just signal the top of the markets? >> it's all up to american pharoah. >> the shocking statistic that could have you running for the exits. we'll explain when "fast money" returns. more and more, data is visual. in fact, the number of mris has increased by ten percent a year. and a radiologist might view a thousand images to find one tiny abnormality in shape, contrast or movement. because it's so challenging, a research project is teaching ibm watson to see. in the future, it could help clinicians spot key patterns quickly and precisely. ibm watson is working to make healthcare smarter every day. you wouldn't order szechuan without checking the spice level. it really opens the passages. waiter. water.
take a look at this photo that is burning up the web. >> ooh. >> the photo is of president obama and german chancellor angela merkel taking a break at the g-7 summit in germany. we wanted to know what you think they're saying to each other. tweet us your best caption. if it's funny we'll read it later in the show. >> should be dirty too. >> our guess, though-s perhaps they were talking about our chart of the day. the german dax. the index has officially fallen into production territory and very close to the ominous death cross. hence why angela merkel's holding up her arms, death cross. tim, what do you think? >> to remind you folks death cross is when the 50 daily moving average is crossing over the 200 or so longer number indicating the trend is on the way down. germany's down 11%, what's going on i think it's rates and currency working against it. i think those are places where you're going to see a bounce but i don't need to buy it tomorrow and in fact last time it crossed over we had the moving cross we
hit the lows of october. so watch 105 on the dax. that's where i would be a buyer. think it will rebound. i think it's way oversold right now. >> you're 99 right now? >> i'm in proxy plays. i own lufthansa. daimler. sort of. there are specific catalysts in individual names. deutsche bank is one of them clearly. >> the dax isn't the only thing getting hit today. the dollar selling off on reports president obama told french officials he was concerned about a stronger dollar. but later in the day president obama responded to those reports at a news conference. here's what he said. >> i did not say that. and i make a practice of not commenting on the daily fluctuations of the dollar or any other currency. >> that didn't really help. since the news conference the dollar's only continued to head south. does the currency market believe what the president said? dennis gartman is the editor and publisher of the gartman letter. dennis, you think he said that, correct?
>> yeah. i bet he probably did in fact say that as an offhanded comment. i can't imagine that a french official would have spoken to the press and said even anonymously that the president had made a comment such as that without the president having made that comment. i think the president realized he'd made a mistake and he stood back and said i probably should go out and deny it. this happens quite often. it's not unusual. it's happened before. it will happen again. the president shouldn't be speaking about the dollar. that should be left to his treasury secretary. that's their responsibility. neither should the fed officials be talking about the dollar. it's not their responsibility either. do i think he said it? probably in an offhanded comment, yes. >> let's just say he did say it. i mean, the only reason why you would sell the dollar off i would think is because you believe that he could do something about it. if the dollar were really a problem, something in policy, u.s. policy could be done about it. is that even possible? >> not really. the president really doesn't have that. that's not his -- under his aegis. so no -- >> so why do you think the
dollar went down? >> the dollar had a huge move up on friday on the non-farm payrolls number. i think we'd gotten a little bit overbought. we'd taken the dollar sharply higher. you needed a correction. and you could blame it upon the president if you needed to do so. that's the reason. i think as i was telling the producer earlier this morning i think we're still in a long bull market for the dollar. speaking in baseball terms i think if it's a nine-inning game we're only in the third or fourth inning. the dollar when it goes into a bull market or if it goes into a bear market whichever way you want to look at it it usually does it in a protracted and long-standing way. it usually lasts months if not years. we're not that far into it. i think we're at the beginning of a bull market in the dollar. >> speaking with your baseball analogy, inning 9 where are we going to see the dollar versus the euro? >> i think we'll trade back to par without too much difficulty, dollar versus euro. maybe well below that. i think the greater probability will be the dollar-yen will
trade 175, maybe 200 yen to the dollar. that's probably the currency that has the greater ability to decline in size and for a very long period of time relative to the buck. i'd much rather be short of the yen than the usualo but is the euro going to get weaker? of course. >> dennis gartman of the gartman letter. >> look at the dollar tpts toward near the bottom of the three-month range. it's not like the dollar's exploding in your face. i think this might be a tale for u.s. corporates when they report. i think the dollar will get stronger. 98 to 100 is where we top out. in fact i'd be buying commodities, oversold at these levels. >> still ahead on "fast money," american pharoah sealing his fate on saturday as one of the greatest horses of all time. but could he also seal the fate of the market? we'll tell you about the so-called curse of the triple crown and when it spells pain
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among major averages. down nearly 1%. here's what's coming up in the second half with "fast." did apple deliver for developers? one update surrounding the apple watch could be a game changer for the company. we'll tell you what it is. and later an unlucky day for casino stocks sending names like wynn, las vegas sands and mgm tumbling. but could today be part of a much longer losing streak? but first american pharoah clocking in a huge victory at belmont this weekend making him the first horse in 37 years to win the triple crown. but that victory could spell losses for the markets. how? cnbc's dom chu back at headquarters with the details. >> by this time of the day you've probably heard all the comparisons. art cashen at ubs, dave lutz at jones. they all cite the statistic about how over the last ten times there's been a triple crown winner the market's been down in nine of those ten years. the folks at bespoke investment group took a look at the overall numbers. the average s&p 500 performance after a triple crown win, again, 10 occurrences, only 10. so a limited sample size.
average move down 10%. if you look at the other parts of the market for the days they didn't have a triple crown winner we're of course a higher trending market over the long term. the average s&p 500 move for a no triple crown win year is up 5%. take that for what it's worth. we wanted to kind of break it down because the folks at bespoke investment group took it and we're going to bring you each individual year and show you what exactly what we're talking about. in the first part of the century in the 1930s that's where performance really got skewed. in 1930 and 1937 with gallant fox and war admiral again we were emerging from the depression at that point in the '30s. the market down 35% and 35%. you can see in each of those years. now, if you fast forward to the more recent ones, again, of course, 2015 the most recent. but then assault, citation, secretariat, seattle slew, affirmed, all those horse that's we've kind of heard and been familiar with over the course of the past 50, 60 years you can see the market doesn't perform all that well during that time span either. but again, melissa, those are
the numbers. we just put it out there for entertainment purposes. of course the sample size is very small. for those looking for another reason to be more cautious or bearish on the market that's probably one more bullet they can put in their holster or their belt. guys, back over to you. >> thank you, dom chu. so are markets really setting up back here? managing director rich ross over at the smart board with a look at the charts. should we be concerned? down 9% for a triple crown year. that's not too good. >> no, we shouldn't. before we saddle up an indicator that happensnsn't generated a s signal in the last 37 years let's trot out some facts, melissa. the data is improving. we saw that last week on friday. and the inflation data out of europe. the deals keep coming. 27 last week alone. $136 billion in deals. and the world remains stimulative in terms of the monetary easing out of the ecb, the boj, pboc. you name it.
now let's go to the charts last but not least. keep it simple. the purple line, that's the 150-day moving average. with the exception of that october correction which took down's 9% last fall. you can see we've held the 150-day for a remarkable 2 1/2 years. i think form holds here and once again we hold that 150 day. it comes in around 2070. that's a little too close for comfort. however, absent a break below that level that holds for some meaningful period of time keep in mind this correction was over before it started. you want to be a buyer of the s&p on this weakness. now, one group we remain neutral on, s&p energy, the xle. that's your etf. 27%. the big boys chevron and exxon, those are the names, the big integrateds we want to be underquaetweight. and look at this chart. clear to see why. down 8% from the may high. the s&p flat during that period. this is stark underperformance. you want to be out of stocks that are underperforming. very well-defined trading range in here, below your 200-day moving average. this is not a chart to embrace
in a bull trend. once again we like the s&p 500. we're neutral on s&p 500 energy while remaining more constructive on the osx and enp names. >> just quickly, rich, in terms of airlines how are they looking? >> they don't look good. there's no way to dress it up. i thought we'd get a tradable bounce out of the airlines. we haven't. it can be a slippery slope as we've seen in crude. the dollar very strong strends once they get started. selling begets selling and i'd be a seller of the airlines at this point. >> thank you, rich ross. evercore, isi. >> first of all -- >> you've got to congratulate rich -- >> someone's going to skewer rich for all those -- >> he had a couple. >> calls to form? did you hear that? he snuck that one in. fantastic. >> in terms his analysis. >> i think he's right. it is going to hold. that level has held with the exception of that move that he pointed out for quite some time. every sell-off of the magnitude we're seeing now has seen a bounce. unless we break this
precipitously which i don't see happening, the trend is higher. >> could i just go back to the triple crown for a moment? >> and how absurd. >> the most absurd -- it makes the adage sell in may and go away look like a sort of mathematical ph.d. treat is on the markets. that is absolutely ridiculous. >> look how much fun we've had. >> and we don't know how much we were down before the race and after. but it doesn't even matter. >> it's all fun. >> let me throw this in there. never in his other ten parts of the sample set he trotted out there has -- that's rich. i'm stealing. yeah. anyway, the point is the move we've had is what's doing this to the market. we are right at levels we've seen every other time ease pointed out whether the 100 or 150. we haven't seen this percentage move in rates. it's something you have to consider because it's been a 20 times move in germany from the
bund to where it was then five bips to where it is now. >> one thing i'd point out really important. may 22nd volatility index trading at 12. got to buy protection. now here we are above the 200-day moving average first close above the 200-day in quite some time. i think to rich's point we are testing levels that are getting a little concerning. pushing down on the 150-day. now you're seeing volatility get up over the 200 day moving average. >> did you say it's a full length above -- >> it hasn't reached seattle slew levels yet. >> coming up next -- we're heading back to san francisco to find out the one thing tim cook mentioned that could be a game changer for apple. we've got a top developer who was at the conference to break it down. later the bet that the market could -- soon see a big move lower.
kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern. one announcement at today's conference could be a huge game changer for the apple watch. >> today we're bringing native apps to the watch with a new version -- [ cheers and applause ]
with a new version of the watch os which gives the developers even more time to create even greater apps for the watch that will change the world. >> so did apple do enough to open up the watch to developers? john meyers, an app developer himself, he's the ceo of fresca news and he joins us from apple's developer conference in san francisco. john, great to see you. >> great to see you. thank you for having me. >> in terms of what tim cook announced today, is it enough for you to go out and say you know what, i'm going to start developing apps for the watch? >> yeah, you know, what we see today is six weeks into the launch of the apple watch apple has already put out what they're calling watch os 2.0. for developers what that means is no longer do we have to have the actual processes of the app occur on the phone. they can occur natively on the watch. what that means is improved response times, better capability in terms of what we
can do to ent grate into the actual apps. we can integrate video, the heart rate sensors for building health apps. we can even access the sound and the microphone of the device. we can definitely do a lot of new things. >> i know you're not an apple analyst or a watch analyst. but in terms of developing enough of an app ecosystem for the watch is this going to help make the watch more of a desirable product? maybe the holidays is going to be the season of the apple watch finally? >> you know, i think so. and i think going into the launch of the apple watch what we heard was the big key feature that was going to be real popular were the health features. and up until today no developer could really build any spott-on health app because we didn't have access to that heartrate monitor in the actual watch. and i think that's going to be a really key feature that developers can take advantage of in terms of building really
powerful apps that are not only useful but can even make a bit of an impact on your day-to-day health. >> john, we're going to leave it there. thanks so much for your analysis. we appreciate it. john meyer of fresco news. does this change sort of the calculus in terms of what you expect from the watch? >> i still think the watch is going to be through this whole developmental process in the next couple months and eventually i think when it's not tethered to the phone i think that's when it becomes a game changer. >> when it's completely stand-alone. >> yes. i think that's what needs to happen. and it will happen. it's just too early yet. >> it's amazing to me, though, how much people have gotten on board with the watch. the street had nothing to say about the watch, didn't have it in their estimate. to that extent i think the bar still remains very low on the watch and the up side. >> i think this notion of making the apple watch easier to use with health apps is going to be a huge driver. i think the health application of the watch is huge. >> well, bad for fitbit and others. if that's really true. i wonderful, though, this day and age how many people go out without their phone?
>> nobody. >> it seems to me a little too difficult to do all the the things you would do on your phone on your wrist. i'd be indeclined to bring a known anyway. >> does that mean you'd -- >> i don't love the watch anyway. but i'm long the stock. >> dan nathan has the watch. >> and he hates the stock. >> he's a curmudgeon. >> and he's a geek. a tech geek i mean. he loves gadgets. >> your contribution to the conversation is dan nathan has the watch. >> what else can i add? how many ways can you skin a cat? that horse has left the barn. >> sxopz drops. drop for scheyer. >> i think the street is concerned they're going to overpay. plus at 260 level we topped out at 2013. push up against seemingly failed now. i'd be very careful of owning scheyer. >> pop for deutsche bank. >> little bit of a snap in the face for jane and fitchen as they decide to bring in jon frye for hopefully a little
turnaround. >> pop for ambarella. >> this is a company that reported last week tremendous numbers. i'm not sure i'd chase it but they are proving these guys are for real. >> this is a stock that's been struggling. upgrade today. i don't think you need to chase this name but it's a name that gets kicked around once in a while. i don't think that's why you want to buy the stock right now. >> after five postponements due to bad weather the space agency launched its new aircraft. earlier today the flying saucer blasted off into space packed with technology that could eventually take humans to mars. >> once the spacecraft reaches an altitude of 120,000 feet it will form a spin test propelling the aircraft even higher while traveling at supersonic speeds. just like a ufo. you don't believe in the moon
landing, do you? >> what moon landing? >> i think some of our biggest fans are from another planet. they walk amongst us. >> no doubt. >> coming up next on "fast" -- casino stocks getting slammed today after one wall street analyst said macau could be even worse than people think. breaking down the odds of a casino comeback. next. some traders are betting that volatility could be here to stay. we'll bring you that trade. next. ♪ ♪ it took tim morehouse years to master the perfect lunge. but only one attempt to master depositing checks at chase atms. technology designed for you. so you can easily master the way you bank.
welcome back to "fast money." two news items to bring you up to speed on, guys. first of all, fedex shares, they're not moving a whole bunch in the after hours session. however they did say they're going to boost their quarterly payment to 25 cents a quarter for a dollar per share annual rate. that again makes the dividend yield a little over half a percent. not a huge dividend yield payer but still fedex boosting their dividend yield by 25 cents -- 25% rather to 25 cents per share on a quarterly basis. then we're going to turn our look toward shares of et ceteray. relatively flat in the after-market on very light trading. however, in a regulatory filing chase coleman's tiger global has disclosed it's boosting its
stake in the online crafts maker to 8.9% outstanding. et ceteray we know has been on a slide as of late but it looks like one of the big investors in hedge fund managers that's in it already is boosting its stake. et ceteray, chase coleman, tiger global. back to you guys. >> et ceteray the ipo that has been having a very rough time of late. a g filing, karen, signifies what? >> signifies passive. just for investment purposes only. look for -- do not look for there to be an activist investment from tiger here. they could change theoretically but that's not what they're doing right now. >> et cetera editsy or fedex? >> fedex is just off the all-time highs. the fact that these guys continue to reaffirm, the expectation is these guys not only have pricing power but everything they're doing with fedex express is a huge part of their business. i like fedex here, and they're going to report soon so we'll have even more. >> casino stocks getting slammed today after revealed a slow start to june gaming revenue in
macau. is it time to cash out of the casinos or should you buy back in? guy adami. >> time to cash out was a long time ago. las vegas sands specifically. what concerns me is the dividend yield continues to rise but rise for the wrong reasons because the stock continues to go down. all 2014 was a disaster. if you look at the trend we're in a very defined down trend. every bounce has been sold. it's not crazy expensive at 18 times forward earnings but there's just no good news catalysts right now. until these things capitulate on the down side, which i don't think you've seen yet, you've got to stay out of the names. >> a very difficult trade even if you think the worst is behind this sector. >> capitulation will be macau itself and i think we talked about this on friday. you don't need to jump into wynn which had a couple earnings reports and jpmorgan's call was a good one it is than the wynn's going to change it's that some of the valuations it's farks it's fair. but to say things are better i don't know about that.
>> we watched wynn make a nice pop up 6, $7. this is a stock that's got to get back itself over 120 before you start getting excited there's momentum to the up side. >> the volatility index surging today. brian sutland is out in chicago with the action. hey, brian. >> hey, melissa, how are you doing here? yeah, tons of action in the vix options pit. over the last few weeks there's been tons of activity. today 1 1/2 times the daily volume being traded in the options pit and a lot of traders were planting crops, betting that the market would sell off. now we've seen the market off 2 1/2% or so from its highs we actually saw traders take profits, harvest their gains in volatility, meaning we saw 102,000 vix june 18 calls trading. almost all of them were sold. even when the market was going down those calls were not moving. so basically people take profits that had bet on the sell-off. now we've gotten the sell-off we're taking profits. i suspect the s&p 500 trades back to 2100 before going
ultimately lower but certainly people taking profits on the volatility spike today. >> pete, i'm wondering what you -- it's interesting, 2100, that is the exacts level. goldman sachs said something to the effect of trading in this current environment is boring. >> close your eyes -- >> exactly. they do expect the s&p 500 to hit 2100 by the end of this year. >> right. and here we are -- basically, we feel like the entire year we've been at 2100. 2100 there, oil trading somewhere near 60. volatility index between 13 and 15. it has been that type of environment this year. >> if you look at the volatility it's in the currency and some rates. equity markets to be should be following that. i would be very wary. i would have protection where it's cheap. iwm to me is the best protection for the low vol it is right now. >> brian sutland, thank you for that. for more "options action" check out the full show 5:30 eastern time on friday. coming up on "mad money" cramer's got two hot exclusives. the ceo of zoe's kitchen. plus the top dog at thermal
fisher amid the big gains in haelts care. and cramer's take on apple action. all that and much more tonight on "mad money." meantime. l about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. when you're not confident you have complete visibility into your business, it can quickly become the only thing you think about.
seven out of ten power outages in the us are caused by weather. but utilities can now predict where the power will go out, within a few city blocks. working with ibm, they're combining micro weather forecasts with detailed data from local sensors. to predict where outages are likely to occur. and send crews exactly where they're needed, when they're needed. ibm analytics from the internet of things is making energy smarter every day. don't miss my exclusive with the ceo of zoe's kitchen one of the hottest restaurant stocks in the game right now plus the top dog at thermal fisher and my take on apple's big
announcements today. "mad money" is next. welcome back to "fast money." i'm dominik chu here with some more earnings news. after the bell today. let's start with dave & buster's. the restaurant and arcade chain's first quarter profit and sales topped analyst expectations leading the company to raise its full-year sales outlook. dave & buster's says it's opened four of the seven to eight new stores planned this year and sees potential to roughly triple its store base in north america. investors seem at least right now to like the story. shares up 4% after hours. melissa, back over to you. >> thank you, dominic chu. tim seymour. >> huge breakthrough for this company. doubled in the last year, trading 45 times earnings. sold off last week because there was some insider selling. too expensive for my blood but it's gone long in leisure. >> earlier in the show we tweeted out this photo of angela america sxl president obama and asked you guys for some responses for captions. here are top three. first up, will fong says "sometimes you just need a hug."
next, husky says the hills are alive with the sound of griswold. obviously we have some chevy chase fans. >> european vacation. >> and finally amazing kreskin says i just can't seem to get that zorba the greek dance music out of my head. >> that's awesome. i appreciate all of them. >> sure, i can do it. >> time for the final trade. thank you for tweeting, by the way. >> much cleaner than i expected. >> we screened them. tim. >> mcdonald's. this is of the slow growth fast food chain. guy was putting them down i think at 93, $88 $95 this is th bottom end of a range. >> pete. >> red hat. hit 52-week highs today. i think this name goes higher. >> pete talked about it, brian sutland talked about it, jaime hanging on to s&p puts. i see the vix go higher and i will sell into that. >> guy. >> the show. rich ross getting it done. the horses. >> horsing around. >> cybersecurity.
you see the names higher until the taped dragged them down. but proofpoint, made an all-time high.lee. thanks for watching. "mad money" is up next. my mission is simple, to make you i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. myojob is just not to entertain you, but educate and teach you, so call me or tweet me.