tv Fast Money CNBC July 17, 2015 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT
know you're going to be keeping an eye on the bond market. ten-year treasury yields. >> it's kind of you're in this quasi-gold lox summer economy. yield curve is flattening a little bit, i don't believe it should be, but it is flattening a bit. it's going to be interesting to see how the market shapes up over the next few weeks. >> have a good weekend. see you later. that is it for us on "closing bell." have a good weekend. see you on monday. >> "fast money" coming up right now. melissa lee, over to you. >> thanks, guys. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. our traders on the desk are steve grasso, david sieberg, brian kelly and guy adami. apple is doing something rare and extraordinary and it could lead the stock to go on to a super surge next week. we'll tell what you that something is. plus elon musk taking a page out of the movie "spaceballs." and this is rather ludicrous. a look at what it could mean for the stock ahead. plus the massive tech rally, it was the best week for the tech sector in more than four years. google seeing its biggest day in history plus amazon and facebook both having monster weeks.
if you missed the rally in technology are there still areas to get into? guy adami, what do you do? laggards or the ones that are working? >> laggards are laggards for a reason. david mentioned last night. nathan's been all over this. the laggards lag for a reason. if you can't perform on the tape we've had for the last six years there's a reason why you're underperforming. you stay with what's winning. steve says that all the time. despite the mouf move in google we talked about it last night, their valuation at 17 1/2, 18 times forward earnings should be closer to 23, 24, which makes it a $750 stock. i think you stay with google. i think you stay with facebook and maybe finally yahoo! starting to get out of its own way. >> you like a laggard. >> i do like a laggard actually. and it's microsoft. that is a name that has been hurt primarily because of sentiment on weakening pc sales. we saw on intel earnings that they weren't as bad as everyone expected. now people can concentrate on what microsoft is doing and growing the rest of their enterprise business. so for me with a 3% dividend
microsoft is the way to play this and it's not really that much of a laggard. held a real nice gap up and is now starting to go higher. >> it's difficult to hold on to stocks at all-time highs. is it? >> they're paying for growing. you're going to pay a premium multiple for these names. we've talked about amazon. we've talked about facebook. we talked about these names aggressively in the show. they're gravitating to these stocks and they're going to continue to. when you think about the underperforming names i think people are setting up for 16 but they're definitely not going to buy them now. >> are these just credit trades at this point? when you're talking about a google and a facebook. and throw in beyond technology starbucks. the things that are powering the nasdaq higher. these are all working. everybody's in them. >> they're definitely crowded trades, but we just posted up a screen there that said google up for the week, high 20s. google is up 31% year to date. this has definitely been a laggard. it's a hybrid. but i would say stick with the winners. but if the market turns, these are the names that will be sold first. they will be hit the hardest, are the winners. >> these are atm stocks in your
view? >> exactly. they are. and you'll see names like -- look at apple. people are selling apple anding buy these names. they're using apple as a source of funds today. >> how do you reconcile, guy? because there are times on this show, and i'm sure people out there wondering when you say oh, you know, what the prudent thing is to take some off the table at these levels, take some off the table and then leg back in when there's a pullback. >> there's no cookie cutter answer. every stock is different. netflix is one we've tried to stay i with you folks. google and i'm going to be honest with you. the move we saw over the last couple weeks i didn't know what it meant. was it a short covering rally ahead of a disastrous quarter or was it building up to something? turned out to be the latter. with that said i think google takes the next move higher from here. i think you stay with it. i think you stay with netflix here despite the fact that people will say on valuation and stretch you could have made arguments like that in netflix for quite some time, same arguments with amazon. other stocks like tesla last week we had a conversation about i said i think it failed at that 290 level we had flagged. i think it's time to take
profits. today is proving me wrong. the answer to your question is there's no formlake thing for these things. >> google's different than netflix. who knew there was a spending problem at google? the stock grows 20% a year and is valued -- >> why does the conversation get reset after one quarter? >> right. >> well, the conversation gets reset on google because they came out with some pretty great numbers and they have a new cfo who is really going to be as people are calling it today, frugal google which i love that name. >> frugal google. >> frugal google. now, again, i'm not going to buy it up 13%, but i think if we get a pullback at all you want to be in google. you don't need to go out and take a shotgun approach. you can buy names like goggle, microsoft. i still would be taking money off the table in netflix. >> does this mean that the multiple for facebook should be that much higher because facebook should trade at a premium to goog snl. >> it should. i think google's going to continue to move higher. i got a lot of heat for saying netflix 1400 bucks. split, what is it 900 bucks? 800? high 800s.
that stock's going higher. >> you're too far ahead of yourself. >> netflix is going to have a problem with me. i think guy had it right. but i had it t. wrong coming out of earnings. two cycles ago i was one of those guys who said you need to take profits if you're lucky to be long. and i still think to turn it to today google you must take profits. it's a three-day rule on these stocks. you can't buy it tomorrow on monday. this is one of those things you've got to reset, hands in the pocket as my good friend gary berman says. >> the nasdaq hitting an all-time high today but one notable tech giant has largely been stuck in neutral for the past few months. according to a report from bespoke investment group apple has traded in its smallest range for over the past 100 trading days since any point in the last 15 years. but the charts are telling a different story of where apple could be heading as earnings approach next week. oppenheimer head of technical analysis ari wald is over at the smart board with the breakdown. what do you see in the charts here? >> melissa, we're bullish on apple and what has us so intrigued about it, it's been
six years since the s&p 500 came out of its bear market low. for apple that stock's coming out of its bear market low only two years ago. here's a chart. here's what i'm talking about. and we can see this big bearish to bullish reversal looks very similar to the bear market that apple had been in from 2007 and 2009. this is the road map that we're playing by. and i think we're at a point very similar to mid 2010. and the stock was very extended then, spent about five months trading sideways, led its 200-day catch-up to price, and then inflected higher again. that advance started -- continued, that bull market continued for apple. i think we're at a very similar juncture where once again after the big breakout the stock has spent again five months exactly trading sideways. a lot of that 200-day to catch up to price. and i think this week's inflection is going to reinvigorate the advance. i think apple is set up to start making new highs again.
we're looking at 145 on the up side. >> 145, which would be 10 bucks above its 52-week high. ari, when you take a look at some of the other charts, let's take a be look at a google, for instance, what do you see there? after this massive run is it time for some consolidation? >> i don't think that's really the high conviction call. i think stocks that make new highs, new 52-week highs continue to make 52-week highs. if you're in a stock like google and you've been in this run you sit back, you let momentum take over. no signs of a top here. google lootly continues to trade higher over the longer term. if you do get some near-term consolidation it would likely be a buying opportunity. >> what does this all mean for the nasdaq and technology overall, ari? you take a look at all the stocks making new highs in today's session alone and you've got a big percentage of the top companies in the nasdaq. >> we like the nasdaq. we like the sectors that comprise the nasdaq. but really how we see, it there's really no signs of a top there. the trend has been steady and healthy. you get a little pull fwarks
goes higher. we think these stocks are going to be the leaders really looking out the next few years. as much as the nasdaq is back to the same levels as 2000, relative to the s&p 500 those relative levels are well below where it was in 2000. over the long term plenty of catch-up potential here. >> ari, great to have you with us. ari wald of oppenheimer. guy adami, what do you see for apple? 144? 145? >> i'm not going to pretend i'm some steadfast bull in apple but recently what i've been saying is what ari's saying. i'm surprised it traded to 120, was happy that it held, and i do think it's going to make that next leg up to 145. it's very difficult to fade the stock into earnings. and i think it's going to make the next push higher. >> talk about a consensus long. >> yeah. i mean, look, i was really bullish on apple the beginning of the year and i've changed the tune a little bit. there's better opportunities to put your money. netflix, facebook, amazon. there's better places you could be. i worry about app many long term. near term are they going to beat numbers?
they're probably going to beat numbers. i don't think that's going to be an issue. maybe the stock trades up a little bit but long-term this is not a stock you want to own right now. you want to wait and see this iphone 6 launch could be very concerning. >> coming up, the stock that surged a whopping 30% on the back of google's blowout quarter. we'll tell you what that stock is next. plus call it a case of tech mania. it's not just apple on deck next tuesday. yahoo! microsoft, and gopro all out with earnings on the same exact day. we're taking a look at which of these stocks could bring about the biggest surprises. and later, today it's all about ludicrous mode behind elon musk's brand new announce nmt what he claims could make the model s go from 0 to 60 in 2.8 seconds. all that and much more ahead on "fast." coverage beyond the borders at no extra charge. get 4g lte data in mexico and canada just like in the u.s. and call and text as much as you want to and from the united states, mexico, and canada. you heard right! unlimited calls to any phone - even mobile...
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tesla ceo elon musk announcing new options for the tesla model s earlier today and one of those options is what he calls ludicrous mode. one man who's never ludicrous is cnbc's phil lebeau. he's live in chicago with all the details. phil? >> who would have thought we'd be talking about spaceballs and tesla on a friday afternoon? we'll talk a little more about ludicrous mode in just a bit because it's one of the three
announcements that was made this afternoon by tesla's ceo elon musk. all of these happened to do with the model s. they are product announcements. on the high end you're looking at a 90-kilowatt battery pack that is now going to be offered as an option for $3,000. remember, it was at 85 kilowatts. this has greater range. now you can go up to 300 miles at highway speed on a single charge. on the lower end they're now going to be offering the single motor rear-wheel drive model s 70 kilowatt pack for $70,000, about $5,000 less than the dual motor model s. and then you've got the ludicrous mode announcement, which is getting the most attention today. it will be offered as an option on the high performance models, 2.8 seconds, 0 to 60. that's what they're talking about. here's musk talking about what it feels like when you are going ludicrous mode around a corner. >> most people have no idea what 1g feels like in a corner. it's really crazy. and you can do 1.1 gs in a
straight line in exploration. >> that's right. 1.1g in a straight line in ludicrous mode. so what does this mean? for the model s these moves mean they're raising both the margins on the top end with the ludicrous mode, because that's about $13,000 when it's all said and done with if you want that option. and also on the bottom end with the $70,000 model s rear-wheel drive version. 11,507 model ss have been sold so far this year. up about 52%. what about the model x? musk briefly touched on that today. he says it is on schedule, it will be coming out as planned this fall. and here's one of the comments he made regarding a lot of these questions about what tesla's working on right now in regards to the model x. >> the company makes great products and is really focused on improving them over time. then generally good things happen financially. >> and that again was in
reference to a question about the model x. take a look at shares of tesla. they were moving up all day long, guys. and they held their gains at the end of the day up almost 3%. now close to $275 a share. and yes, in reference to the ludicrous mode, it is in reference to "spaceballs." those who like that movie love this. and oh, by the way, melissa, before the conference call started there was rap music playing and people were on twitter saying, what is this? why are they playing this rap music? it was ludacris. see, they give little clues. little clues. >> wow. >> before they make the announcement. >> so clever, those tesla folks. all right, phil, thanks so much. by the way, in case -- because i didn't know what "spaceballs" was. >> what a surprise. >> our crack staff back in englewood cliffs found a clip of what ludicrous mode actually does look like. so check it out. >> ludicrous speed, go!
[ screaming ] >> okay. so 0 to 60 in 2.8's pretty cool. but it's the update on the model x that really got the stock moving. the stock pulled back to up 1% and then climbed back up to close to session highs toward the end of the day because of the xfrmt update, right? that's all we care about at this point. >> i would guess that's all you care about at this point but if you look at the stock if you buy it here you're risking it to the down side. your support is 265. your up side target is 291. that's based on an overshoot level from the old high, 291, down to that level that guy talked about a lot, that 181 low. if you see, that that is where you bookend your trade. but this stock still has the best mileage out of any other of the competition. it still owns it. if it doesn't run out of gas. i just came up with that.
>> mileage, running out of gas. >> you could stay in the name. >> so you like the stock? >> i'm saying 265 stop. if you're going to enter right now. >> what's your favorite mel brooks movie? >> i don't know. you know that. >> i mean, i prepare for the show every night. "young frankenstein" is my favorite. >> can you please give me a tesla favorite? >> i thought it would trade up to exactly where steve talked about. in the beginning of july i thought it failed when it traded up to 280 and sold off. my view was it would trade back to 225. today obviously i'm not looking that smart. i think you trade it, you buy it on a breakout above 290 that steve just referenced or you look for that move back to 225. to me right here is no man's land. >> it's last hurrah for ebay and paypal kick off our top trades tonight. both stocks begin trading separately on monday. paypal will trade under the ticker pypl on the nasdaq. several firms initiating coverage on paypal today. wedbush initiating with a neutral, $40 price target while susquehanna initiated with a $75 price target. guy. >> no. it's not guy. but i'll talk about it. >> i didn't think it was guy.
but i think it's b.k. >> b.k.'s my man. >> so here's how to trade it. everybody wants paypal, right? nobody's really sure what's going to happen to e bay. it's the electronic garage sale. can they do anything? so on monday or tuesday if you get a sell-off in ebay that's the name you want to look at. everybody's going to be excited about paypal. i'm less excited about paypal, actually, because i think in the payment space there's too many competitors, too many things going on, even just apple-pay's a competitor to paypal here. so you focus on ebay on a sell-off. on a big sell-off you buy it. >> what are you so excited about ebay? >> what i'm saying is if you zblsh 82% of the profits were paypal. 8% was from the market price. i would say if you're going to own anything you want to own paypal. >> paypal. i wouldn't own ebay. there's no growth in that side. at all. i think it's 0 to 5%. >> on the ebay side. >> on the ebay side. >> sorry. >> well, listen -- >> maybe guy wants to take a crack at it. >> what i'm saying, nobody wants it. nobody wants it. so there's going to be a price. >> you're going contrarian here.
>> that's what i'm trying to say. >> next up, massive move in shares of editsy. the stock rocketing higher after being positively mentioned by google during its conference call. google said the online crafts marketplace is one of the beneficiaries of some of its search and indexing technology. take a look at etsy's one-month move. it wasn't a one-day move even though people were talking about as if it happened today only. but actually take a look at the july 6th low. that low is 1280. the stock is up 67% since then. guy. >> heavily shorted stock. obviously today's comments help. you mentioned the stock had been rallying ahead of this. but go back to may 19th when they reported their first first quarter ever. it was a disaster. and almost every analyst on the street came out and lowered their price targets anywhere from $12 to $15. is there another couple days left on the up side? probably, given the nonsense we're seeing in some of these stocks. but when they do report i've got to believe it's going to be equally as disastrous and at a certain point you have to pull the rip cord on this thing.
>> i don't get etsy, i don't get this huge move higher unless it's a short squeeze. >> it is a short squeeze. i'm a seller with both hands. there's no reason to stay long this stock. sell it here. >> still ahead we'll have your first moves tomorrow. actually first move for monday, sorry. friday. in the meantime here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> announcer: call it tech mania tuesday. gopro, microsoft, and yahoo! all reporting next tuesday. and we'll tell you which stock could see the biggest move. and later in the hour the vix has collapsed, but it's also flashing a secret buy sign. we'll tell you what that is later on.
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♪a one, a two, a three percent cash back♪ welcome back to "fast money." as you see, a slew of earnings next week. we've already talked about apple. but on tuesday it will be a full-on tech mania earnings event. in addition to apple we've got microsoft, yahoo! and gopro all reporting after the bell. now it's time to take your position ahead of what we are calling tech mania tuesday. where do you go, guy? >> gopro to me. the move in ambarella recently had a big move, north of 110. there seems to be some tailwinds to gopro. i know it's sort of -- it's been
either side of this $55 level but i think gopro's going to rally. >> you've got to go with gopro. >> you love the gopro. >> it's a revolutionary technology. >> you put it in the drawer, you leave it there with your socks. all that whole nine yards. >> you put the stock certificates in the drawer and you use your gopro p they've got drones. they've got submarines. the things awesome. >> if you like drones, though, why not just go ambarella? >> i'm gopro as well. too much detail on that, but i would say absolutely stay away from yahoo!. i don't think that's a stock you want to own here. i think the whole baba overhang. the tax issue. 53 cents a share. it's not a stock i want to own. no growth there. sell it. >> if i was forced to pick i'd go gopro. i don't really like it but i think you get that drone -- i'm not happy about any one of them. just as david just said, if you go to yahoo! it seems like we're talking about ebay basically. their core business is not doing anything. you're valued on alibaba and yahoo!'s down 18%. alibaba 20%. right around there.
same amount. so you're getting the proxy on aliba alibaba. neither one is a buy right now. microsoft is dead money for me. it's got to break out of this range. rolling over on the 50 day. >> your worldview, grasso, those are three pretty big stocks. >> they are. >> for a nasdaq composite that's already at record highs at the close here, that doesn't really spell good news. >> no, but it gets back to how we started the show. do you buy the leaders or do you buy the laggards? these have been the laggards. >> dead money stocks like these according to you. >> when the leaders start to fall off a little bit if there's news that's negative. >> to go off script quickly not that it's a nasdaq stock but ibm on monday that's rallied with the tape. they'd better report a decent number or they're going to get taken out to the woodshed, which i think they will be. >> what would woodshed numbers be? >> if you put the right multiple on ibm it should be a 9 multiple. you can do the math. it should be a $145 stock. >> what do you think? >> i'd probably be a buyer of ibm on a sell-off. if it got down to about 165,
162, something like, that i'd be a buyer of ibm. one, we all know the problems they've had. that's been well priced into the stock. now you've got to talk about what's the future of ibm and if they can get watson, if they can monetize watson which to me is the big core driver of ibm in the future, then ibm's going to be a winner. i'd take a shot. >> just quickly, how do you think we set up for the tech trade next week, given all these earnings still to come? >> i think look, a lot of it's been -- especially with the big ones rallying the way they did after google i think there's a lot of priced to perfection here. but you may see a pullback a little bit here. again, i don't see a runaway scenario on earnings from these names. >> okay. it is time now for the final trade. let's end this friday here, grasso. >> i know this is counterintuitive. i'm going to go with a laggard. potash. pot. 27 stocks. >> talking about the winners. >> it's an ag name. >> seaburg. >> unp. the rails. we really feel are at a level they should be bought. unp reports next week.
we saw a couple reports that were good. i'm a buyer. >> beakers. >> beakers gives credit to beakers that he likes microsoft. that one's going higher. he's proud of himself. >> good, beakers. guy. >> the facebook going to change. i think next week. fb. >> bfb or just fb. that does for us here on "fast." see you back here on monday. meantime don't go anywhere. "options action" is up right after this break. equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like shopping hungry equals overshopping.
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live at the nasdaq marketsite. and guess who i found. hey, scott. good to see you. scott and the guys are getting ready. here's what's coming up on the show. ♪ because a collapse in the vix is creating the ultimate buying opportunity. and we'll tell you why. plus google's gone wild. >> flip out. >> but there's another tech name that could see a similar surge. we'll tell you what it is and how you could make money. and -- ♪ bubbling crude too much of it, that is. you won't believe just how far some traders are betting crude will fall.