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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  October 1, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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the solar sector has been under siege of late. we've got the ceo of solar city. he will respond to by short sellers and the ability of customers to sell back some of their unused power. >> it's a big deal for consumers who want that income. over to you guys. >> thanks kelly. "fast money" starts right now. i'm melissa lee. you made it. he wasn't there moments ago. the fourth quarter is here. that is your best bet for the end of the year. details later on. shares of twitter or sinking as investors await the ceo announcement. we'll hear from a large shareholder who says the company is, quote/unquote screwing it up. we start off with our top story. a goldman sachs note reigniting rumors of m&a action in tech space. saying microsoft, oracle ibm,
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s&p and qualcomm are the main players that could benefit. many took that to mean sales force could be the target. look at the stock jump in today's session. that is a 5% jump today. a big part is a lot of cash on the sidelines. >> a lot of cash on the sidelines. for me two names make sense to acquire sales force. sales force crm trades 75 times forward earnings. it's an expensive stock. they probably deserve that valuation. ibm has been in a death spiral for the last three years. they need something whether organic or not to spur their growth. it would make sense for microsoft in a lot of ways. i think qualcomm is more an acquiree than acquirer. i think ibm has to make a move and would make sense for them. >> what do you think about crm up for sale? >> faber shot this down in may. they have a 48 billion market cap right now. there is a price for everything.
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i'm not certain microsoft need to use, say they have $95 billion in cash 60 or so net of debt that that's what they want to do for $8 billion in revenues right now. especially they have a partnership with them. i don't see microsoft doing that right now. the other ones don't have the balance sheet, the ibm, the oracle. >> don't have the balance sheet to buy? >> not for what benioff wants to sell. you have to look down at workday or service now. >> this market cap as of today closed $46 billion company at the close. >> as far ahead as sales force is oracle and sap, the premium is going to be enormous. the question is is oracle a buyer? larry ellison, if anybody can put that deal together it's probably him. sales force is interesting. if you look at their pipeline so many think these guys are are ahead. growth is not in big cap tech is
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root there for the taking. as heather points out, cash balances are up 46% over the last five years. there is a lot to do. we know big cap tech can be a value trap. >> heather is the analyst who wrote that note at goldman sachs. in terms of the cycle, what does it saying we could be thinking about what would be the largest tech deal on the books in this market environment? >> you could say struggling for growth. to me the name microsoft does make the most sense. they do have the strongest balance sheet. it's not like sales force is on sale. it's not like it's been decimated in this market and this is the time i've got to buy it it would be a very, very large transaction. >> do you want to see microsoft buy a company that declined a lot? or buying marquee properties? >> this is a business that seems
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to be in ascension still. if you want to make a move you've got to act. microsoft in terms of balance sheet makes a lot of sense. >> for more on potential m&a in the tech space, let's bring in gray's peak capital principal and co-founder brian blair. >> thanks. >> the talk in the market is microsoft for crm. is that what you would see? >> no the earlier points were spot-on. it's too big of a deal. $47 of a billion, make soft has a little under $100 billion in cash. they are number four in the space behind s.a.p. oracle and sales force is right out in front. it doesn't make sense to spend that big of a percentage of your balance sheet on a single acquisition, especially as noted earlier, it would need to go at a premium. what does make sense are rumors we've seen earlier.
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maybe microsoft buying amd. it's under $2 billion market cap. they could save money. >> why would they want amd? >> it powers the xbox. to date there's been 15 or so million units that sold. they pay amd $100 per console. that would give them some efficiencies there. sony also uses amd. they might able to use it to put the squeeze on their biggest competitor in the market. that makes more sense than the a a a $2 billion acquisition versus something north of 50. >> the common theme is they need to do something to spurt growth. if they buy amd, that's not going to move the needle. >> what they are doing right now in the crm space is really important. they are making small acquisitions to strengthen their offering against s.a.p. oracle and sales force. they made a small acquisition about cloud-based tools that are
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going to enhance their dynamics product. there is a partnership with dream force, they are throwing some balance sheet at acquisitions to help strengthen that area. i think that's the right way to do it. enhance their existing offering. make it more competitive than throw 70% of your balance sheet at grabbing the number one player. >> brian, thanks for your time. brian blair. >> we did reach out to sales force and microsoft. both declined to comment on the rumors. you take a look at other players in the space like a workday, for instance. that was up 5% also. it's in the same space as crm and $13 billion market cap company. >> workday held an analyst meeting. people were not excited about what they see going fofrmtd some of these stocks got ahead of themselves. he mentioned vertical integration. i don't think it makes sense. we used to talk about ambarella.
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this stock got slayed with a $1.8 billion market cap. >> if you want growth it's growth at a reasonable price. when you think about some really big semiconductor deals that went on this year we saw six, seven times sales. intel paid 14 times sales for altera earlier. this is one where this could be taken out probably at a premium of 30%, 40%. snapped up like that. >> only two companies that can pull off one of these massive deals are google and apple. microsoft doesn't need another small bad deal like nokia. >> good point there. >> we've got an earnings alert on micron. josh lipton in the newsroom. >> on micron's conference call the ceo saying he is pleased with the company's execution. acknowledge that results were impacted by that pc market but argued that his company is well positioned in this market. take a listen to what he just had to tell analysts.
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>> stepping back for a minute micron produces technologically advanced subsystems and systems for global marketplace and today's customers are looking for value-added memory solutions to drive efficiency design. we'll continue to invest to enhance our competitive position. >> the cfo did give q-1 guidance saying the company is looking for revenue of $3.35 billion to $3.6 billion. that undershoots what the street was looking for, but you sigh the stock continuing to move higher after hours. back to you. >> thank you, josh lipton. this is day two of gains after wdc got a chinese investment yesterday. >> top line beat bottom line. that's good news right? this is a relief rally, clearly given what we've seen. this guidance, first quarter guidance was lousy. i'm surprised you haven't seen a
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pullback. feels like people are looking at this as an opportunity to buy a stock. this guidance i've got to look at first quarter guidance. it was not good. they lowered on eps and revenue. i'm surprised it's holding the gains we are seeing. >> news alert out of washington, d.c. let's get to ammon javers. >> the united states will hit the debt ceiling on or about thursday november 5th. at that point jack lew is saying they would have to pay with cash on hand which is below $30 billion at that point. because net expenditures per day for the u.s. government can be as high as $60 billion, he said the real danger there is that it would be impossible for the united states of america to meet all of its obligations on that date for the first time in our history the interesting thing here about this date of thursday, november 5th, there's a whole lot of political intrigue going on here in
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washington. speaker of the house boehner has said he is only going to remain in congress until the end of october. this puts the debt ceiling limit a few days after the speaker leaves office. the question will become does john boehner want to deal with the debt ceiling as one of his last acts as speaker of the house? he said he wants to leave his successor, whoever it is a clean barn quote/unquote. will he be able to do that before the end of this month is an open question. given all the infighting in the republican conference on capitol hill. >> a lot of unknowns. coming up twitter could be moments away from announcing a new ceo according to reports. is it too little too late? a major shareholder after the break. >> a slew of upgrades for biotech stocks. meg tirrell will be here. >> could it be lights out for the solar industry?
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shares of twitter falling more than 8% today. the move follows yesterday's 5% bounce in the stock as reports
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said jack dorsey would remain permanent ceo. here is what billionaire investor chris sacka said earlier today on "squawk on the street." >> i don't think anyone should buy it on faith. we are going to look at a quarter i'm expecting them to do quite well. expectations couldn't be possibly lower. some of the things they are doing right now will take a while to really see results. this company is moving in the right direction. to bring the team back in that grew it exponentially in the first place, i don't doubt their ability to make this work again. >> sacca said he strongly believed that dorsey will be named in the coming days. >> yeah. tim and karen were talking about how weird this situation is. >> how many times have we talked about jack dorsey becoming ceo? it's hours and hours and hours. >> i've been long it a while another. it's frustrating. if you own it you continue to
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own it. there has to be a leap of faith. that is probably not a great thing when it comes to investing. it's got a $15 billion enterprise value. when we look at the list of unicorns that exist with more than $10, $15, twitter should be higher on this list. i think it's mispriced. sacca helped spur change. hasn't helped the stock. what is going to happen if dorsey is the ceo and bain is elevated and they are are not doing the things he wants them to do is he going to be as vocal? this is going to be a rocky play from here on out. there is no valuation support here. they really do need to get some things structurally going. when they report they are going to sink it. it's going to look ugly. >> if dorsey is named permanent ceo. >> if anybody is named ceo. >> true. >> it felt like the kitchen sink that last conference call. >> dorsey would be half ceo of
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square half ceo of twitter. doesn't it sound strange they are willing to settle for a ceo who will not be a permanent full-time ceo? >> the whole thing makes me wonder. if they were going to end up with dorsey why not go with dorsey in the beginning and avoid a lot of the upheaval that's been in there. the high level turnover in upper echelons of management. it is odd. it makes me wonder did they try to go to a few other people and were turned down? i don't know. it is odd. clearly, whoever is the ceo has work cut out for them. next up auto sales for september on fire. check out sales report. nissan toyota, chrysler gm all up double digits for the month. >> someone miss in that group, volkswagen. there is shuffling of leaders globally. volkswagen, of course dropping out of the some other germans dropping out. can ford start to take market
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share internationally is the interesting part. with 18.3 annualized goes back to 2006 we haven't seen anything close to this. the auto stocks are not moving. in fact ford is a cheap stock on pe trading about so much times, 13, 13 20 is a level on the stock interesting to own it as your bottom and take a shot. global sales growth margins declining are priced into this stock. no one believes it's sustainable. >> you know what was moving until today, tesla. today reaction was not very good. >> it's going to be choppy. it's been choppy since its inception. it's going to continue to be choppy. i do think you can own this stock against 225 on the down side. you can have days when the stock is up $9 or $10. i think it reaches that $290 level this year. dunkin' donuts having the worst day ever. sales forecast came in well
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below estimates at its investor day. the company said it will close 00 stores by 2016. >> third quarter comps not great. they are supposed to report october 22nd. how do you play the stock now? $41.50 was the low this time last year. we bounced off that. we got down to $42.50 today but on ten times normal volume. leds me to believe you saw capitulation. not to compare it to starbucks, especially he would you compare it to starbucks. wall street turning bullish on biotech. what has a number of analysts pounding the table in a special way. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc. here is what's coming up on "fast." >> what do these three men have in common? >> those people have never been in my kitchen.
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>> to the quite, cliff. they got clobbered in the month of september. which stocks tripped them up. >> plus stocks are down on the year. that could be good for one sector. we'll tell you which one. you wouldn't take medicine without checking the side effects. hey honey. huh. the good news is my hypertension is gone. so why would you invest without checking brokercheck? check your broker with brokercheck.
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a number of bullish analyst calls failing to by today. meg tirrell is breaking it down. >> it's been a tough september for biotech investors. people are looking around as we start october saying is it over? does it get better from here? we have seen a few upgrades. jpmorgan upgrading celgene. saying valuations are getting too low. people should buy these stocks. they are taking macro looks at the sector. notes came out from piper jaffray, jeffries and cowan, all looking at where do we go from here? there are a few themes that converged on. the main one is the larger cap names are the ones that are going to bring us out of this. some folks saying looking toward third quarter earnings as a reminder you have a lot of growth in this sector. there was uncertainty near term whether we are at the end of
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this decline. everybody converged on the idea longer term this is one of the highest growth areas. if you want long term growth biotech is the place to be. the election cycle obviously adding to a the lot of uncertainty going on right now. cowan saying we could see prices of some drugs, at least increases be muted in 2016. cowan also saying interestingly they expect m&a to be muted because people as we mentioned earlier this week are going to look at higher valuations they once were trading at saying why aren't we getting those offers up there. volatility is really bad for m&a. you can't settle on a price. will be interesting to see whether we can out of this by the end of the year. >> cowan saying some targets will be remembering the steak dinner they had last april while eating the gruel they have today. in terms of the large cap stocks, we talk about the impact of etf trading and how it's
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pushing around the stocks. how does that work out in the analysts' view if they are being whip sawed around with the wholesale selling of ibb. do we need to see wholesale buying to see the large cap names work? >> interesting question. one of the analyst notes came out saying it was the etfs initially dragging everything down. then it became because sentiment around biotech was so bashgsd the generalists cycling out of the sector saying it's not that i think anything is wrong here but sentiment turned so much. >> i think that sentiment point is a huge one. sentiment and you have the flow of funds. also when you have these kind of big swings with and a fear of overvaluation and momentum clearly changed, they never swing back to fairly valued and stop there it's got to go well beyond that. m&a won't help for the reasons you said. the old asking price. it seemed like a while one would have to wait before just to let
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it shake out some more. i don't know there is any floor valuation on some of these names. makes me wonder why don't the big cap ones, like a gilead why don't they buy more gilead? >> good point. >> jeffries did a survey of about 100 investors. their favorite pick is gilead across the board because folks see the valuation being quite low. they see earnings so that's one people do go to. it will be interesting to see if people can pull out of this. piper jaffray saying we have reached that point where we oversold. they are saying now is a good time to buy. other folks aren't converging on that point. >> thank you, meg tirrell. >> guy, what are your thoughts? you've been a big proponent of the etf exacerbating the moves in the individual stocks. >> i've got to give tim credit. in terms of biotech etf, he talked about 285 being a level. look at the low thursday on monday or tuesday was 285 and change.
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nice call bounce from there. i think the etf drives the individual names. otherwise it doesn't make any sense whatsoever. bristol-meyers got favorable data today on one of their cancer drugs. stock was up. should be up a lot more. got caught up in the maelstrom of this selling. >> nice word. >> don't ask me how to spell it. >> m-a-e -- don't test me. i went to a real school too. >> too early to buy health care as a sector? >> yes and no. you look where valuations are. the jpmorgan note on celgene was at 19 times, these guys are in line. they are growing twice as fast as everybody else. i think you go with quality. the etf pshgs, very powerful in a lot of sectors. coming up one sector that history says is due for a major
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rally fourth quarter what that is later on. >> shares of solar city down 20% this year. could they be headed for a turnaround? the ceo of solar city is here with us at the nasdaq market site.
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welcome back to "fast money" a turbulent day for u.s. stocks. dow down as much as 211 points. rebounding to close down 12 points. >> s&p and nasdaq managed to eke out small gains. here what's coming up the second half of "fast money." stocks coming off a rough third quarter that. could be good news for one key sector. a top strategist explains why transports could offer the best ride for your money. >> shares of etsy trading below market price. about to face the biggest challenge yet. we will talk to the ceo of weebly. >> shares of solar city trading higher today but the trend down all year long. now a california proposal could become a bigger headache for the company. with us on a cnbc exclusive
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interview is the ceo. >> there is a vote on the 5th of october which is going to be a key one. i've been vocal in terms of wanting to have net metering in place, allowing customers to sell back to utilities their unused solar power. what could be the impact if net metering goes away? in a piece you wrote, you actually cited the second largest utility in arizona got rid of it. solar installations the following month went down 65%. that is scary for an investor. >> everything gets highlighted around what happened in arizona. if you step back policy is not happening in policy. net metering is expanding. if you go back three years from now, the states that offer net metering today is more than the number of states that offer net metering three years ago. california, our policy leaders will do the right thing. california today employs 50,000 people in the solar industry. that's more than the five big
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utilities combined. net metering glitz viewed as a competitor to the utility. that's why they don't like it. in reality, it's a good program, a fair trade to the homeowner. the program itself is good. most of the policy that occurred, the solar industry won. >> in terms of what could happen though policy is being made as we speak. solar is a quickly changing industry. you believe that the states will do the right thing. but for investors, we are looking at a policy landscape that could be different in five years. how do you sort of guide investors how to think about the regulations that could be in place to either support your industry or try to snuff it out? >> regulations in the processes of policies changing are extremely beneficial to the grid and to solar. the biggest change we are seeing is creating a grid where you can have two-way communication. today the home consumes energy.
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it doesn't do anything back to the grid. states like new york california and hawaii are leading the nation where you can have a smart home where it communicates to the grid. you have tens of thousands that have power-generated system. you give that capacity to the utility and be able to manage that from structure, that is far better than building out a centralized power plant. their policy is changing. for that to get adopted, you have to change the policy the utility can make money in that process. today, if the utility were to subscribe to a service, it has to be a cost. they don't make money on the service. infrastructure is a service. do all the innovation. let them build out the infrastructure. let the utility use that infrastructure as a service and make profit for that. >> so everybody wins. >> everybody wins. right now if they were to use that service, they can't make a profit. >> i want to talk about what's
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going on in the sector overall. obviously, the sox have been sold off almost indiscriminately. doesn't matter what you are. all you guys are being sold off. i want to play a sound byte because there is one competitor that was very hot solar play. the ceo made bullish predictions about the future of solar in general. take a listen. >> our markets in solar is growing at 17% on average for the next seven, eight years. we are tripling our share during that time. so wind only doubles our available market. already our solar market is healthy. we want to supercharge the company. we have a very high growth low-risk business in a market where investors want a lot of that. i think the sky's the limit and driven by multiples.
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>> that was the ceo of edison. obviously, the stock has been decimated. it was once $30 a share now $7 and change. do statements like that does that do a disservice to your industry to say the sky is the limit? >> so he would you look at total available market it's a massive market. today the penetration u.s. is less than 2%. if you actually look the right way to look at it what is the rate of new energy deployed in the country? right now you're comparing a legacy infrastructure to a new infrastructure. 80 years versus a few years. that is not a fair comparison. solar in 2009 if you look at new energy deployed in the u.s. was 2%. 2014 is 35%. it's massive growth. it's now the largeos single source of new energy in the country. overtook natural gas, wind and coal in 2014. and we still only have 2%
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penetration. there is massive market scale. >> so the sky is the limit? >> the sun's the limit. maybe that's the right answer. the industry has grown at 50%. it's a big industry and has done that nine years in a row. >> you are confident that rate will continue in the foreseeable future? >> it has to stop at some point. >> the next two years? >> infrastructure is part of the problem. infrastructure is a bottle neck. >> in certain areas. in areas like hawaii that may be a bottle neck. anywhere in the mainland there is no bottle neck at all. in hawaii is interesting. if you combine solar storage, you can address this challenge. >> you are going to make a major announcement tomorrow. you are going to make the announcement tomorrow. you are going to give us a hint tonight. so what is it? >> okay. the hint is we are bringing back
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world records to the u.s. and new york. >> a world record? does it have to do with -- what does it have to do with? >> world's tallest man? >> tune in tomorrow right? >> very exciting. >> we've got to leave it there. great to speak with you. thank you for your time. >> thank you. >> world record. >> world record. >> morgan stanley has a $90 price target on this stock. there is almost a 15% short interest. jim they're there the lines of demarkation are set. 41.50 bottomed out august 24th on 13 million shares. that's your line in the sand. with short interest any good news i don't know what this world record thing will be tomorrow but maybe get a short covering on the back of that. >> is it going to move the stock?
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>> if you look at the fundamentals of the business every fundamental is improving. maybe. i don't know. >> not a catalyst but a world record. sticking with solar. september wasn't a pretty month for some of the biggest solar companies. one name contributed to the pain of high-profile hedge funds. which stocks were a headache for hedgies. that's right. the late summer sell-off hit investors across the board from mom and pop players to some of the world's biggest hij funds. managed by david einhorn, dan lobe were down 3% and 5% in september according to a new report. einhorn's biggest losers included fund itson down 31%, consol down 35% and micron which dropped 9% in september. rosen rosenstein's bets failed to pay off for partners.
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valeant fell 12%. lost positions on amgen in september and allergan which fell 13%. the question is whether the smart money will buy the dips in these beaten-down names or get out of the positions before they fall even further. back to you. >> thank you, saema. >> would you buy bargain basement names? which look interesting? >> amgen looks interesting. a lot of what we are talking about large cap, pharma in general, there is not a whole heck of a lot of volatility. they are growing sales at mid single digits here. this is a relatively cheap stock. 2.2% dividend yield. of all those lists and the ones beaten up amgen looks the most interesting here. $120 would be a great entry. >> it's qualcomm. talk about the guys with so much bad news priced in. we were surprised it didn't hold $72 and here it is $53.
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qualcomm is a place where there is a crowded trade. i don't think it's crowded any more. short interest high. interesting company. >> guy? >> i'm with hashtag, they have a tremendous balance sheet qualcomm. i think you are going to get activist chatter at some point. at a certain point this will turn in and be violent. it's qualcomm. >> we had a story today from sun edison which has been very painful. still ahead, the fourth quarter is here. with stocks having a rough run, what is your best sector for the end of the year? we'll break it down after the break. plus -- this potato. ordinary spud. made a man $50,000. he'll join us with the company that made it happen. [ male announcer ] eligible for medicare? that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything. only about 80% of your part b medical
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welcome back to "fast money." breaking news on sprint. according to dow jones, the company is planning to cut $2 to $2.5 billion of costs in the next six months. dow jones reporting sprint is
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freezing external hiring and that the finance department must approve all expenditures. sprint is expected to cut unknown number of jobs. to provide context here the last time sprint announced job cuts was in november of 2014 where they announced 2,000 jobs be cut. that was about 5% of their total staff. stock right now just up about 0.5% in after-hours trade. >> thank you. >> what are your thoughts? >> tough trader here. it bounced 3 to 5 a couple months ago. there was talk about soft bank who owns most of i'll maybe taking the rest of it. pricing in this sector is going lower. all the stuff that's going on with the subsidies and pricing of cell phones is going to make it tougher for the low end players like sprint and t-mobile. i don't like this one here. probably see it at $3 soon. >> stocks in the red for 2015. that could be good news for one important sector if history is any indication.
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paul live in stamford connecticut. what's the group? >> what we did is looked at sector returns based on when you have a down year-to-date return. the s&p typically don't perform as well in the fourth quarter in these periods when it's down year-to-date versus up year-to-date. one sector that stands out is the transports. in the fourth quarter when it's down year-to-date heading into q-4, the dow jones transports averaged a gain of 9.6% in the fourth quarter. versus 2.5% for fourth quarter is when it's up year-to-date. what is more interesting, it's been remarkably consistent in the fourth quarter, as will. in those 21 years where it's been down year-to-date heading into q-4, it's been up during q-419 times. there's only been two down years, 1969 and 1994. you really have consistently positive buying on the weakness for that sector. >> what are your thoughts on the subsectors within transports that could be poised for this
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fourth quarter? >> i think one, think about airlines. fuel prices are really low here. domestically based airlines more exposed to the domestic u.s. economy, less international, because u.s. jobs data we saw today is still holding up well. the u.s. economy is doing well. fuel prices are lower. people are going to still travel. when you go to the airports there's no lack of people in lines there. i think the airlines is a sector to focus on and even the fedex and ups, more online shopping and as commerce moves online these two companies are delivering more of the goods. >> paul, great to see you. thank you. >> thanks. >> paul hickey. >> guy, you once worked at ups. >> i did it well. you have such sarcasm in that. i got employee of the day. crushed it. >> brown worked for you. >> you worked there for a day.
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>> so last year the transports had a huge move to the down side in october followed by the bounce. i think we topped out in late november. same thing happened in 2011. the difference this year is the sell-off has been much more gradual. i don't see any reason for the transports to bounce. i get the statistics. it's a kensho thing he did there. i just don't see it happening this year. that's just me one person's opinion. >> another person's opinion is if i was going to pick a sector i think bottomed i would go with energy. no question energy stocks especially high quality ones put in a bottom. semis, the sox is on a move higher. >> how about you? >> i agree with timmy. i do. oil seems to have kind of found a level here even though other commodities seem to be sold off last week. i would say energy. >> oil giving up big gains today. one trader made a huge bet that crude will rally the rest of the year. all details ahead.
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>> this man sprouts cash. the ceo of weebly is here to say how they are breaking the bank with potatoes. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.
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working for your company? >> i'm not.
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my roommates's fiancee writes all of the notes. >> i assume she lives in idaho. >> they are fresh enough to also eat so they are recyclable? >> right. i would not recommend eating one of these potatoes. it's been in the mail and touched by people and has ink on them. they are $10 plus $4 shipping. >> you could buy at least ten pounds of potatoes for $10. >> i've got a couple of potato ideas. >> i have some potatoes for you guys. we put it to the test. this is for guy. >> taters are are good for the elderly. >> what does that even mean? >> it means exactly what it means. >> i can't read it without my glasses. >> go up to alex, he wrote it. >> this one is for karen. potatoes are key retail indicator. >> that is good to know.
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>> hold it up to the camera, sister. >> see what you're paying $10 for. this is a russian potato. in russian. >> is it a curse word for real? >> i'm a very, very good trader. thank you very much. >> this one is for dan. this potato looks like a bear. the margins on this are what? $ $9.99? >> 67%. >> thank you for coming by and explaining weebly. fascinating stuff. >> how many have you got? 20 million sites? it's crazy and he looks like he's 19 and told me he is 30 years old. they must be selling that skin cream. god bless him, man. need some of that. >> let's move on. from potatoes to oil crude oil
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giving up its gains after a morning surge today. seems like some traders are betting there is still up side ahead. what did you see? >> it was in the u.s. that etf attracts the crude. there was a buyer of 60,000 in the december 20/21 call spread. you can make up 5.5 million if the stock was up 2021. here is the thing. the options market is facing a low probability this trade is in the money. those december calls only have a 7% probability. let's go to the chart of wti crude. it's obviously trying to put a bottom in. some of those guys think it has bottomed. for that trade in the uso to
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make money, needs to rally over 30% on december expiration above $20. that would be about 58.50 in the commodity. i want to go to the ten-year chart here. look at this thing. when you look at uso, this is the one year. needed to get back up to resistance. this is a low probability trade. this is not generally how you want to use options. could be a leverage trade for existing long. >> thanks for that. check out the full show tomorrow at 5 350k:30. >> traders are telling what they are watching tomorrow. stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
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. time for the final trade. tim? >> ford is a very good stock. >> sadly, i don't think twitter will rally on a dorsey announcement here. there is no re-evaluation support here. i add that to my long position. >> you sound sad about that. >> you have a potato. >> tim and i have the same thought about energy. i think we are near bottom. >> bristol-meyers. get you done.
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>> i'm melissa lee. see you back here at 5:00 for more "fast." "mad my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you money. my job isn't just to entertain but to educate you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jim cramer. close watchers of "mad money" know i'm not a chartist. but i do play one on tv weekly. show you technical
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