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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  October 5, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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find them online. it appears they went offline. but they haven't responded to our calls either. kayla, you are a ten in my book. >> but you can only rate up to five on that app. >> you are still a ten. >> it is all positivity on "closing bell." >> thank you. see you tomorrow. that does it for us on "closing bell." "fast money" starts right now. >> i think we're a ten. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq markets overlooking time square on a strong day for stocks. i'm melissa lee. tim, steve, karen and guy here tonight. a strategist will give us three reasons why oil has bottomed and the stocks that are poised to benefits. and one biotech surging more than 70% but still not enough to lift a sector which was down. we'll tell you whether the run in biotech is over for good. normally the 300 point in the dow would be the top story but we're going to start with a major win for nelson pelts,
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shares of dupont of which he owns 3%, rallying 6% in the after hours on news of the ceo ellen culman is out. and they are cutting guidance buts it the news of ceo change that is lifting the stock here. so guy adami, what do you make of this this is a story we've been -- we should know we are monitoring the conference call. >> when pelts sent a letter to the board asking for board seats. it closed at 79 and the after market traded 80. it was all bad until today. how do you trade the stock? i think with this guidance this is still an expensive stock at 15 times forward earnings but so much damage has been done you have to wonder if people are going to chase and the answer is probably yes. where do they chase it to. there is a gap between 65 down to 60. i think it goes down to $60 and then you fade it. this is by no means an in expensive stock and the guidance
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they gave you tells you they are in a decline businesses right now. >> this is a big day for pelts. and in ge he announced a $2.5 billion stake. >> which sounds more ammicable certainly than this. but this was a -- they picked a good day to announce not so good earnings. that is right in the cross hairs of the things that have been decimated but now catching a bid. i think it doesn't bode that well in the short-term here. i kind of agree with gee, it is expensive and i think -- >> i don't think you call it a victory. down 30 from when he lost his proxy. but the big takeaway. he put $120 price tagt on this name. whatever changes he enact would bring this stock to a double. so if they chase, a lot of room to the upside. >> perhaps what he was angling for could actually happen could he get the board seats he wanted
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to get before but was defeated. >> this is the same board that voted him down. it wasn't just the ceo. and think about what is going on with the company. people are saying it on the desk. the global ag cam industry is on the heels and it won't change overnight. this is how reasonable, what is the time line what are the real issues here. is it about cost savings or capex and the spinout was positive for these guys but i don't think earnings will change on a dime. guy mentioned a low. i think $54 is what it settles back to. you have momentum in the next couple of days but it is still a prove-me stock. >> we need to see more of what he'll do correct. >> and you talk about freeport macmaran and carl icahn and lng is another name he is involved in and the declining businesses that don't turn on a dime to timmy's point. they turn overtime but not on a dime and you have to fade the rallies. right move was to fade the rally
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in scx. >> i think we have to throw out the fundamental driven ideas that we're thinking about. you are right on lng. but i think it is a real event driven name. so people will let fundamentals take a backseat to the momentum. >> you think it is going higher? >> for me the long-term left is 46. if it was below that level, you're looking at disaster level. for nelson pelts, this is a win and a win for the stock. >> and your point was the fundamentals in these sectors and your point too is the fundamentals are bad and that will win at the end of the day and not the event. >> we saw what fundamentals did from the proxy battle that he lost. and guy was right, time was right, the stock evaporated it. was down 28% year-to-date and right now it is more about momentum and event-driven for this headline. >> when you are in the wrong
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place at the wrong time. remember the kenmore spin they spun off $20 a share, loaded with debt probably lucky they got it out. the stock went from $20, rallied hard today, 7.5. so if you are in the wrong place at the wrong time like they've been partially, i don't think you can -- you can't -- >> you can't separate the guidance. >> 20% today. that is not insignificant. down to $275. >> for more on this let's bring in jevonen son. jeff good to speak with you. what is your take on the situation now. >> thanks. as you know, i was a hearty defender of ellen culman but it was in defense of the board strategy not just ellen's strategy. and the realist is the market conditions have changed. there is some problems that have happened of course, with china.
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china wound up not buying so much from brazil. brazil wound up not buying the massive amounts of agricultural support that they were getting from dupont. if you had to point to a single chain, there are many other things going on here but if there is one single factor this is something that wasn't foreseen -- anybody saw, well except for jim chanos who could see what the down market in china could cause, across the chain reaction of other businesses. but this is an unexpected chain reaction and that was devastating. this is candidly is not a dramatic event in that while it catches market by surprise today, it wasn't there was a showdown at the okay corral today. i talked to people involved. discussions were taking place over the course of days and weeks, really. >> sure. so you said you were a backer of ellen culman before but are you saying she didn't lead the
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company through poor market conditions well? >> i think it is an issue of credibility. she became a lightning rod. this is a fabulous day for trion and pelts and they have a lot to be proud of this is a cul where they wanted to break apart this company. i still think that would have been a mistake. and in the four months since they would have if they would have gotten elected to the board, they could not execute that strategy. but agricultural chemicals is what really hurt the companies right now. and this is -- sadly, this is a time where short-term performance drives somebody's credibility. so i think this is not something pushed on them from outsiders. i think the board has -- and ellen has come to the recognition that it was time for a change. she had been there for seven years. i think she had been in the company for 27 years. she had a great tour of duty. but right now, i think she felt and they felt it is time for a change. because the external market conditions change.
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so i frankly thought she would have been able to take them through this period. the interim they have in there, ed breen is a name familiar to everybody on the show. he is an incredible herculean turn-around guy but he is only in there for transition. if he were to step in the world could be worse. what he did at tyco, from the fiasco and before that at motorola and general instrument before that and he is still a young guy in my book that he would have been a tremendous successor. but i think they're going to outside search right now. there is nobody within that is ready and prepared to take the reins. >> is it your sense, you mentioned that the board now is acknowledging accept shally it is -- essentially it is time for a change. does that include what nelson pelts wanted to do with the company which is essentially breaking it apart. >> i don't believe so. because i believe this was -- in fact the board's strategy
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especially drawing heavily on the tremendous engine of their r&d labs that so much of the current products are products under five years old and come out of the r&d lab and it would be a shame to splinter that apart. and i think that -- i think there may be some additional divestitures but i think they are already on a pace to do these. but right now, i don't know that we'll see a dramatic strategic change or a change of person a lightning rod for activeist decent. >> thank you for your time. >> and i should mention. you'll be seen as the joan of ark and she reminded me this is -- six months ago, joan of arc was burned at the stake and i think maybe there is something to this. >> thank you, jeff. yale school of management. it is interesting that the activists are getting into the area of the market the industry so beaten down. dan lobe is in dow.
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we have nelson pelts in dupont and carl icon in newport macmaran. and whether it is strong dollar or the markets. >> the crop harvest has been insane. what we see in the ag space, you are only one bad harvest away from putting the stocks away. and it is a tough place. and you don't get a very good number. at best, most guys on the street are around $75. if you add an element to maybe get back to 20i8 dollars, it doesn't change a lot. >> when dupont started to fall what was nelson pelts going to do with his stake and the fact that he is increasing his stake is a big thing psychologically and i'm still long it. there is nothing more bullish than a long bull so you have to take that a grain but i think the stock can move higher. >> karen, what are your thoughts, there is an interim
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ceo. when will the board look hard at difficult things potentially? >> i won't be surprised if the board looks at the board itself and we see changes at the board. that wouldn't shock me. if there is a changing of guard in the ceo role maybe there will be in the board as well. i wonder if they will ask or entertain pelts' opinion about who should run the company. >> or be on the board. it was voted down before essentially. gee? >> you can change things internally but you can't change the landscape. and to tim's point, the landscape didn't change on a dime. they are facing serious headwinds on businesses that won't change overnight. so i think the really will -- really will last but it will fade offer that. >> now the shares are still holding on to a 5.5% gain. coming up the coverage of the stories in the after hours shares continue. if you are just tuning in a major management shuffle.
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we are monitoring the company's conference call and we'll bring you the latest. and how have other activists fared when they enter into large cap companies. and oil up today. the three reasons why oil may have finally found a bottom. all of that and much more coming up on "fast."
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we have a market flash. seema has the details. >> arena shares are higher after a shake-up. the co-founder jack leaf will retire at ceo and harry hickson will serve at interim ceo. they will initiate a search for a permanent ceo immediately, shares are higher by 4.6%. back to you. >> thank you, seema. pop in the after hours but over all the sector has been an underperformer. it started with the hillary treat. when the naz dack was up biotech was down. >> if you start with the front page of "the new york times," it just looks awful, the headline.
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and this is a dream come true for politicians. just pound on it regardless of what the underlying facts are. that is not the issue. the p.r. just couldn't be worse. >> gee? >> tim called for it to be traded on and it was spot on and it will continue to bounce and the rhetoric will continue. trading on it long 285 and we'll hear from celgene and gilead and nothing has changed in the businesses. the only thing that changes is the rhetoric. you stay long on the ibb on the biotech on the good side. >> this is the right price for the sector. it is better going into the numbers to not see it come back up. >> because of earnings season. >> right. and if you look at jp morgan went upgrade. these are valuation wise are very attractive here. but i think 320 is a top. i think the bookends at 320 to
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285. >> i get what you are saying about the upgrades but sentiment doesn't change that quickly. >> they were tactical calls. >> right. but still -- >> i think it has to do with china being offline. they rally energy and material names. so people took advantage of china being offline to rally the underperformers. >> if you give it a week or two it will -- >> so it wasn't hit by china. and the rally today. the dow was up more than 300 points. and very little news. the s&p turned positive. how much of this is fear of missing out on a year end rally. wow! we're still here. steve mentioned china being offline. is that the driver of this? >> that is clearly a part of it. i thought tim might agree. the friday job numbers were disastrous and the revisions were horrible and debt out of europe that is not good. what do i think is happening.
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i think friday was going to happen. i was dead wrong there. but i think people are forgetting about a fed rate hike. it is potential for the fed to go another round of qe. i think that is what the rally is. because to me the data is so dismal. maybe the next move isn't to raise, to do another round of what i think is absolute lunacy. >> this is crazy. >> we disagree because i don't think the payroll number was that bad in september. if you go back, that number was in line. and you listen to bernanke and the fed is absolutely on hold. and if you think about it in the context, that is where the nerves where. i think china will come back online and present some fears and we'll talk about trading strategies for the market. i think the market is ahead of it. even though i'm constructive and don't think the skies fall. >> so the emerging markets is not looking very good and q3 earnings isn't looking good but because the fed is on the side
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lines you rally. that is what it boils down to. >> it is all about where you start from in the charts and that is why it is good to have the technician on now. because at 2,000 for the s&p cash it was bearish. we traded down 1872. at 1872 it is bullish that they are not going to raise. i think it is a range of market and technical based. >> let's get to the big question with the technician. is this the year end rally. and we are breaking it down at the smart board. rich what you are a bull what do you see in the charts now? >> mactwain drk mark twain said history does not repeat but it does rime. and let me show you how we get here. first the blue print or the analog. this is 2011. this is the summer of 2011. there is your market high followed by a precipitous drop 19% back then. just about 12% today. we take out the purple line. that is the 200 day. and the 50 crosses below the 200
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but it is too low. the damage is already done. we chop around for another month or two. and we fail into the 50 just like today. but october 4th keep that date in mind. what is today? it is october 5th. and once again we stare into the abyss and a false break down to a new low and come up like a cannon, up 12% off the low. and we take off the 50 and don't run into resistance until we hit the 200 today. today, here we see the six months of sideways trading. july top, august selloff. august low. rally, which fails, into the 2,000 level and the 50-day moving average and here we are once again, the october retest. october 5th we get this boom. extension of friday's post payroll, interday bullish reversal. we have clear resistance at the 2,000 level. it is a big round number. it is the neck line of the double bottom. it is the 50 day. but i see upside.
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2064, that is your 200 day. and it gives us the upside target. i'm not saying you don't get another down tick but you are up 12 mers in 2011 and 7% gets us to 2130. giving the magnitude of the decline and around the world, europe and the u.s. and japan and the series of the bullish reversals this market has what it takes to get here and 2011 is the blue print to get us there. >> 2011. all right rich ross of ever core isi. guy, when i look at that chart, what stands out is the sloping moving average. so we lost momentum and continuing to lose momentum and yet there is a bullish reading off of the chart. >> unless it goes flying through the declining 50-day average and then it gets powerful. i'm shocked that we bounced off the october lows the way we did this time around. because i thought we were going to retest that 1820 level and take it out. to rich's..
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now we're at a moment of truth. now the bears had to prove themselves and they d now the bulls have to prove themselves. i'm in timmy's camp. i think you fade this rally. >> still ahead, can tesla stay on course with 50,000 annual deliveries. phil le beau has more on why this could spell trouble ahead for musk's empire. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide. here is what is coming up on "fast." >> tonight, the three signs that oil has finally found a bottom. hallelujah! >> and the sector beginning to look like a streaming buy on the back of it. plus chick-fil-a has officially landed in new york city. and the arrival could have fast food companies running scared. so we are conducting an on-air experiment to see how worried mcdonald's and crew should be. all of that and more ahead on "fast."
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we have breaking news on lyon's gate and stars. let's get to sue herera in the newsroom. >> the l.a. times is now reporting that they may be linking up. that lyon's gate and stars are in advanced merger talks
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according to four sources in "the new york times." it has been rumored for a while. john malone mentioned it back in june that a future tie up might occur. if it does occur, it will be a significant step toward creating the next media company. valuation may be one issue. the valuations of lyon's gate at $5.7 billion and stars has a valuation of about $4 billion. but they are apparently in advanced margin talks. melissa, back to you. >> thank you very much. sue herera. good thing according to the stock. >> for lyon's gate. timmy would agree. >> i own the stock and because these guys are a pure media content play. with all of the talk -- michael burns came on the show after the cord cutting show because he's agnostic. he has fantastic content and the media is growing and we know what is going on with the films and the pipeline which is continuing to get stronger. the valuation doesn't matter if you think this is a takeout play
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and i don't mean that but it is obviously trading at a valuation north of 30 times. >> a prooemum to -- premium to disney. >> it is a clear play. >> you have to worry about the cord cutting but with lyon's gate, you still get a value. aun see the way the chart reacted. guys rushed in to buy the stock to push it to highs. this is where you play the content space. >> gee? >> long on the name. we've been steadfast for michael burns and it as well. i think it is give or take $0.10 or so. i think they'll get squeezed. >> the first time he was on this show -- >> it was an $8 stock. >> amazing. tesla reporting third quarter delivery rising 49% from last year with model x production in play can tesla hit the year end
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targets. phil le beau has more. and it is interesting because musk was talking about how complicated it was to manufacturer. >> and the execution is what everybody is focused on. it is not an easy vehicle in terms of let's put it together. there are a number of advanced systems within the model x. and they are going to be tested in terms of manufacturing and production in the fourth quarter. here is the number that they need to deliver in the fourth quarter in order to make the minimum delivery guidance. which is 50,000 vehicles. basically deliver a little over 33,000 in the first three quarters. now they have to come up with 16,883. now most of those are going to be model s vehicles. but the model x is important in order to hit the 50,000 target. we say it is important because yes, they delivered a handful in the third quarter but it is the ramp up in the fourth quarter that people are focused on. they have plenty of reservations. so demand is not the issue. it is whether or not they can
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make the execution of ramping up the production. and elon musk, when i talked to him last weekend in northern california and whether we have everything in place. and it will only move as fast as the unluckiest supplier. and he said this in the past whether or not the suppliers are the right ones in terms of delivering what they feed to delivery on time as they increase production. so as you take a look at shares of tesla. it was down fractionally today. a lot of chatter, melissa, about whether or not 11,580 was on target or slightly below target. it doesn't matter. the fourth quarter matter for these guys and whether they can reach the 50,000 mark. and people say if they come up with 49,500, that is a miss. technically it is a miss. but the bottom line is whether they can make the next step in the fourth quarter. >> phil le beau, thank you.
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talk about a back-end loaded year here for tesla. where do you think we go. >> i think the stock goes higher. the demand for the car -- it is like apple. the demand for the phone is there. sometimes they have supplier issues. the demand is there. people want their product. that is a high class problem. i get valuation is crazy. i think you stay long on the stock against 225. today was a wash on a great day. but i think it goes higher from heme and surprised people on the upside. >> because it is tesla and maybe we give them the benefit of the doubt to ramp up production of a new vehicle when ford added the f-150, wasn't there a problem with production. it wasn't smooth sailing. >> they have pushed out and delayed deliveries before. i don't give them the benefit of the doubt at all. i think the ramp in the skvp will push this down. and valuation doesn't make sense i am not a buyer here. >> coming up next. oil may have found a bottom and
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three signs to prove to. and the one space catching a new move and how you can catch up on the cost. and worries ahead for the likes of mcdonald's. we have a special never before seen live experiment in the battle of the best chicken sandwich in town. wow, what a tease. and next nelson peltz, a rally. dom chu has the details. >> when it comes to activists incest investor investors, you can still feel the hit from bill carl icahn and jeffrey. we'll have their performance with big name stocks coming up after the break. so keep it right here on "fast money."
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welcome back to "fast money." a major rally on wall street pushing the dow and s&p and nasdaq all out of correction. the s&p locked in the first five-day winning streak of the year and the dow ended up 300 points having best day in a month. coming up in the second half of "fast money." chick-fil-a has arrived in new york city but who is the fast food king.
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we have a live experiment coming up later this hour. you bent want to miss that. plus another fast food chain, yum brands shares down 10% in the last month. and all of that still ahead on "fast." and we start off with dupont. a major management shuffle. the company holding a conference call. seema is monitoring the call. what is the latest. >> the conference call just ended and the company referring to two main headwinds impacting earnings and thus the reason for lowering guidance. the depreciation of the dow and the weakness in the agricultural market. listen in. >> well our nur lying businesses remain strong, we are not pleased with the revised outlook. but we are clear about the market and industry-wide drivers and what dupont can do about them. conditions in brazil are the most significant cause of our change in outlook.
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if you break down the change the two primary factors are currency primarily the weak brazilian real and the week ag business in brazil. >> now in reference to the currency, the brazilian real has depreciated 60% year-over-year and 20% since the earnings call in july when the dupont had the call. the chief financial officer said brazil is a key market and one where we maintain a strong position. in addition to the currency the macro commission was cited as a concern. softening demand for insect control products. now on call analysts asked whether the situation creates mma m&a opportunities and you can see it up now 5.5% after hours. melissa. >> seema thanks. >> are we going to see other
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companies say the same thing. >> when i look at lat tan is about 9% of dupont sales and brazil is 60% of lat tan for us. and kitchen sinking it on brazil to me, i think is not really the whole story. and i think the whole story is the entire ag space and that is a place where investors aren't going to see a turn quickly. >> that is not the only news out of nelson peltz. he disclosed a $2.5 billion bet in ge and you might want to follow the large hedge funds into large cap stocks. dom chu has the details. dom? >> so some of the big-time investors out there, melissa, can have a big impact on the big companies. bill acman and member the $2 billion position disclosed in the summer of 2012 and they got out of it in the first quarter of 2014. less than two years later. check out the chart. during that time frame, a 33% gain. we don't know the cost basis and the exit price but still during
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the general time frame, a good move. also jeffrey oven at value taking the massive stake in miefld. a $2 billion position there. disclosed in april of 2013. take a look at this. that stock is up 57% when jeffrey ubben took that stake. and then of course carl icahn, 1-2 billion dollars to start and gotten bigger since then. and boosted the stake. and look at apple stock right now. up around 71% during this general time frame. so melissa, when it comes down to it big-time investors can have a big impact on big cap companies. back over to you guys. >> thank you, dom. and karen, it is interesting, you thought what is the point. they are going to own so little and they can effect very little change. >> right. and i think that is starting to change. both because they have so much more money under management and then the acman-valiant
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relationship that was a whole different kind of activist. and i think that we'll see others like that. that was a really -- they were working together to -- >> the kindler, gentler activist. >> right. >> working with the board, not trying to be as aggressive but trying to propose ideas that might be if line with the corporate vision and push it along a little faster. >> that is what pelts is doing with ge for instance. now around the horn with the megacaps that these guys think actually need an activist investor. >> i don't think caterpillar, a $40 billion market cap. at one point it was. but clearly over the last few years it lost that status. i'll say this you have to wonder at a serb -- certain point, is somebody going to get involved in cat. maybe china has bottomed and mother south america.
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i think you could get a bounce in this. i think this is ripe for somebody coming in and saying something. you could potentially see if if not by the end of this year but the end of next year. >> grasso. >> for me it is ibm. we did this secular shorts an this is my pick. they have to decide what they want to be. are they hardware or services or software. they are definitely not hardware. so if somebody lifts the hood and tinkers around you could get some pop. it is off 30% from the all-time highs. i don't think this is a great stock going forward but the game was a name that activists could make a difference and i think ibm is is that. >> karen what is your target. >> google. >> you mean alphabet. >> yes. i'm not -- i'm not signing on to the alphabet. >> it is difficult after so many years. >> but i do think they have a quasiactivist. she is skilled in the ways of
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wall street. came out of the gates with a bang. and the play here which is fairly obvious, capital allocation to shareholders whether through dividend or buyback. >> tim? >> i think it is coke. like mcdonald's, you have a tremendous value but there is questions in terms of what is going on with the refranchise around the world with the bottlers. they looking for other places to find the growth. the carbon ated soft drink sector is changing. >> what do you think needs to be done. >> there are ways to monetize the infrastructure. i think part of this is looking for -- >> you think distribution. >> absolutely. and there are ways to spin off assets and pay investors back. it is about buybacks and dividends. >> guy adami is gearing up for the ultimate chicken challenge. it involves a blindfold.
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a blind taste test showdown right after the break. much more "fast money" still ahead.
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welcome back to "fast money." chick-fil-a making a debut here
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in new york city over the weekend. it is now the eighth largest quick serve restaurant as measured by sales. and a research firm putting out a note saying it could be the greatest threat mcdonald's faces. saying we believe up start competitor chick-fil-a poses a greater longer term threat as it expands into new markets, capturing share with its high quality offering something the street has yet to recognize. >> guy adami, as can you see there, has a blindfold on. he can't see. see. that is the test. he will now take a bite out of each to decide. so guy, i will hold the sandwich. tu glue -- it is gluped. i'm going to hand you the sandwich. i won't feed you. >> i'll tell you right now, that is not chick-fil-a. but go ahead.
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>> all right. and now number two. >> all right. i'll tell you right now, the tell tale pickle makes that chick-fil-a. >> how do you know it is the only one with a pickle. >> excellent point by you. okay. go ahead. >> this is very messy, just to warn you. >> oh, my -- this is disgusting. >> shove is in there. >> pardon me? all right. well here you go. this is the deal. the second one, chick-fil-a because it doesn't have any mayonnaise and the pickle. this one has got to be shake shack because it is a mess. the first one is mcdonald's. >> you got all of that right. which one -- now here is the question. which one was best. >> the chick-fil-a.
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>> why? >> because it is the -- >> can he take off his blindfold. it is uncomfortable for me. >> i think he likes the blindfold. >> it is the gold standard of chicken sandwiches. >> and let's see. chick-fil-a is a privately hold -- closely held company. the company owned by family in the past they say they have no intention of going public but it is a threat. so grasso, would you be concerned if you are a holder of either shake shack or mcdonald's? >> you look at a company that is predominantly in the southeast, although they do have other -- other stores and in different areas but you're talking about mcdonald's 36,000 global units. they are starting to change the skus. they make 80% of the money from 20% of the skus. they start all day breakfast and higher margins there. and i think mcdonald's had the turn around moment and i think you are safe with there. >> and tim, you are long on
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mcdonald's. >> shake shack is a multiple i can't stand behind. and we talked about them cherry picking their numbers. mcdonald's is a turn around story. the valuation is interesting. chick-fil-a makes a great piece of chicken and guy loves what they are doing. >> he eats the whole sandwich. he didn't even leave me a piece. >> somebody is not feeding him at home. he is not getting enough. >> i haven't had a chick-fil-a sandwich and i think i've had a mcdonald's sandwich. chick-fil-a, is that closed on sundays. >> it is closedond sundays. >> so if you get a competitor that is slightly positive. would you stick with mcdonald's, certainly over shake shock. different product. chick-fil-a is a different area than shake stack. >> and by the way, guy is using the blindfold as a napkin. so don't use the blindfold ever
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again. and giant young brands is set to report earnings tomorrow morning. guy is still eating. the three things you need to know after the break. >> the stock traders are betting will jump 25% in the next month. you're watching "fast money" as i wipe the food off my hands. you're watching cnbc the first in business worldwide. ♪jake reese, “day to feel alive”♪ technology empowers us to achieve more. it pushes us to go further. special olympics has almost five million athletes in 170 countries.
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the microsoft cloud allows us to immediately be able to access information, wherever we are. information for an athlete's medical care, or information to track their personal best. with microsoft cloud we save millions of man hours, and that's time that we can invest in our athletes and changing the world. (vo) what does the world run on? it runs on optimism. it's what sparks ideas. moves the world forward. invest with those who see the world as unstoppable. who have the curiosity to look beyond the expected and the conviction to be in it for the long term. oppenheimerfunds believes that's the right way to invest... ...in this big, bold, beautiful world.
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welcome back to "fast money." the fast food giant behind taco bell and kfc and pizza hut reporting after the bell tomorrow. here is what you need to know. >> this is karen short, managing director at deutsche bank here to preview yum's third quarter reports. first point, china comps and margins. they will report comps excluding the fire incident. we're looking for a 10% comp but the buy side expectations are below that. margins were well above expectations so it speaks to the possibility that it may not return to historical levels it is possible that over all profit does. and second point, china strategic options. the company has not discussed any options for china publicly one of the largest shareholders
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has. and regardless, or irrespective of how the division is performing, there is a very large cal rational for why the division should explore strategic options. third point, the rest of the business, china gets 90% of the attention, we expect taco bell to continue to perform well. and we expect kfv to be in line and fairly positive and pizza hut to continue to struggle. net, given the stocks weaken performance today and the valuation over china, we expect expectations are low tomorrow. we think the stock could act favorably. this is the "fast money"'s earning edge for "fast money" and i'm karen short from deutsche bank. >> we separated yum if the other fast food taste testing. because it has more china exposure and there is some agitation for strategic
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alternative as karen mentioned. >> and there has been. and if you look at this in the sum of the parts and that is where you can have fun with the valuation. you look at it relative to it self-. yum is trading in line. in july they told us single high digit and same-store sales and that is conservative and the bar is low. $83 is the middle of the range. modest upside in this number. >> i would think it would trade below itself. >> it is not. >> then what is going on. >> it is trading at 20 times and historical is 18.5 so -- >> for years it felt like yum was going out for mcdonald's in perpetuity and you talk about the 50 day average rolling over in the yum brands. mcdonald's is a better trade. would you go long. i don't know if you can go short now with yum at this point. i think it is risky. but i'm comfortable being long. mcdonald's if your out there. >> moving on. shares of u.s. steel rally 9% today but according to one
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trader the stock could surge another 25% in the next month. mike has today's "options action." >> we saw well over 2 times the average daily call volume and most of the activity was concentrated on the november 14th calls, almost 14,000 of them ended up trading total for over $0.42. so this trader is betting it could be up 25% or more by november expiration. and this is one of the worst performing stocks of the year. down 50% since january and considerably more from the 52-week high. >> thank you for that, mike. >> it seems like stocks steel, printing things that you didn't think could rally, would rally. >> you could see what mike was talking about. you could see that rally an the stock is still broken. this is a bit of a kroes bet
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and -- casino bet. >> check out "options action" at 5:30 p.m. on friday. and tonight cramer is diving in with the ceo of tg therapeutics. that tonight and more on "mad money." up next the traders will tell you what they are watching for tomorrow. stay tuned. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
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can a business have a mind? a subconscious. a knack for predicting the future. reflexes faster than the speed of thought. can a business have a spirit? can a business have a soul? can a business be...alive?
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welcome back to "fast money." tomorrow night mark and reesen will join us live. we'll speak with him in an exclusive interview so you will not want to miss that. that is tomorrow night here on "fast" at 5:00. time for the final trade. around the horn. tim seymour. >> almost an 8% reversal on the russell small cap. throw that out there. on the short side protect yourself and buy it cheap. today below 20. sell the iwm. >> steve grasso. >> it has been a couple of good days back to back and let's see how it can last. i'm long. >> chairwoman.
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>> it was interesting where sun corp wants to buy a bigger share of the merger. i think it is worth a look. >> and my mission is simple: to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cray america. my job is not just to entertain but to teach and put it in context. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me #jimcramer. what if the federal reserve is on hold until the rest of the year and we can curtail the endless
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