tv Squawk Alley CNBC October 6, 2015 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
welcome to "quack alley for a tuesday. i wish you could have seen us dancing just now. kevin o'leary, a financial group. shark tank investor. good to see you. john is on assignment. kayla is here along with mia. let's start with markets. a bit of a ride. dow up 70, 80 points. of course, after it closed up over 300 points. dow up over 700 from friday's session low while the s&p is coming off its first five-day winning streak of the we're. kevin, people trying to argue that somehow sentiment has changed from september when we were in the depths of watching china. >> you think so? >> no, i don't think so. i think everybody is trying to guess one thing. what should be the go forward price earning ratio for earnings on the s&p next year based on slowing growth, based on concerns of every political nature. i don't think anybody is going to nail this right. get ready for more volatility. the one thing that's constant, and you know i harp about this every time i'm with you guys, is
had you only owned dividend pairs, you only had to suffer 80% of volatility, and you have dividends in this period. if ever there was a time to buy a high quality dividend paying stock and only go there, it's now. we are familiar with that chorus from you. >> take for example the ride. i don't want to pick on any one particular stock. think about go pro. we were together talking about the meet orric rise of gopro. you have been slaughtered on that stock. >> yeah. >> i love nick. he is a guest shark, so i have to be careful. >> you love the product. i use their product. i don't own the stock. there is no push into the down side. you lost 50% of your money. it's a slaughter fest. the chance you get it back, zero in my opinion. >> what do you do before the end of the year, because you have the imf for the second time this year cutting growth forecast. david from goldman who was just on the show basically saying we're going to bumble to the finish line. 2,000 is his price target. we're already at a pretty rich
valuation for the s&p. over 16 times. if you park yourself there, you'll make between 7% and 8%. plus, dividend yield. everything else is just noise. you can't guess what's going to happen, and you can't let one person's opinion decide whether you will be in the market or not. >> we know of your canadian roots, and your tie -- you have a long-standing knowledge of how commodities work. we just showed a chart of oil, which is closing in on a 4% gain today.
>> oil will be $50 until the cows come home. i don't care. i love the fact that every other sector is enjoying the benefits of low oil, and we never talk about that. it's always whoa is me, the energy stocks are defining the s&p. who cares about the energy stocks? what about the rest of the market. >> that's a good point. >> certainly isn't stopping fedex from raising surcharges. we'll talk about that later. a day after twitter appointed jack dorsey as its permanent ceo, the company is unveiling its long anticipated product overhaul. our julia borstein with details on that. hey, julia. >> hey, carl. that's right. today twitter is launching the long anticipated project lightning as moments, and it's a key part of jack dorsey's turnaround strategy for the company. the goal is to make it easy to browse twitter's best content without having to follow anyone on twitter or even having to sign up for the service. the feature will appear as a tab
with a lightning bolt in twitter's app. each moment is a group of tweets, particularly those with photos and video. they're all gathered around a specific topic that people are talking about on twitter. twitter will cash in on the feature if it can add new useers and keep them engaged. it's testing promoted moments with a handful of brands that will weave into the editorially selected stories. twitter shares moving this morning after gaining yesterday on the news of dorsey's appointment as the company's permanent full-time ceo. now, twitter has been talking up project lightning for months. it's definitely seeming like its biggest announcement in quite some time, and it also will be very key in dorsey's turnaround. they've talked about it a lot on
the conference call yesterday. >> just hanging your tenure on the new feature, and saying -- it makes no sense to me. i think what has to happen is this thing has to finally prove out a growth in billable revenue that turns into cash flow. if the company can show growing cash flows, then you have to say this feature made sense. >> that's what i was going to ask you, kevin.
you do give the company a brand new product to sell to advertisers. julia just said brands will be able to weave their content into this new tab. >> i'm a show me guy. i have seen new products from twrit twitter and all the talk about what it's going to, do and they didn't deliver on the one thing that mattered the most. growth. >> he seems to be very excited about this, and he is sort of on the side that this is going to work. >> he also has a lot of skin in the game, we should note. >> he has been really frustrated and vocal to say the least. he has used you as a platform, but really give it to the board.
>> if you are doing shark tank and the presentation was for someone launching twitter, would you want in? >> no. social media today is beyond difficult. you know, it's almost serendipity whether you get any traction, and twitter is in this neverland saying we're going to make it. we're the little train that could. institutional investors are pretty pissed off at this company. can i tell you that with certainty. they're not happy. >> it is -- it's been difficult for a long time. long before they came public. >> carl, they say it nicely when they talk to you. they say something else to me.
>> the global growth forecast for the second time this year. joining us on the set is our sarah eisen and maurice. the new chief economist of the imf live from lima. >> the imf downgrading global growth to 3.1%. we want to welcome dr. osfeld. the new chief economist of the imf. good to see you. thanks for joining us. >> thank you, sarah. >> i want to start with this. lower projection for the global economy. i think it's a concern, but the bigger concern may be that there aren't that many policy tools to address it. let's start with central bank policy. how much more room is there for global easing to fight this new slowness? >> well, as we say in many countries, policy space is limited. looking at the youeuro zone and
japan, there's room to maintain policy accommodation. in some countries in the euro zone there's sufficient space for fiscal expansion, so the fund is recommending those actions. if you look at emerging markets, some of them with strong policy frameworks, which built up fiscal buffers have room for a fiscal expansion. for example, peru where we're holding these meetings has increased fiscal stimulus. others, which didn't provide for tougher times are in a tougher situation. >> what's notable is that you actually -- >> in those countries we're recommending -- >> i wanted to bring up the u.s., while we have you, because on an upbeat note, you actually upgraded your forecast for the u.s. economy this year. downgraded it for next year, but do you think our economy here is on a firm enough footing to continue this recovery and to deal with higher interest rates?
in the u.s. there's some headwinds from the trade sector. we just got a big increase with the deficit this month. fundamentally the u.s. consumer is confident and spending and we're looking to strong domestic sources to power the u.s. in the coming quarters. you know, it's going to be up to the fed to decide when the tested data dependency is met, and they feel the economy is strong enough to raise interest rates. >> is the dollar too strong? >> the u.s. has been growing more strongly than foreign economies. that's the reason why the fed is contemplating raising interest
rates finally. it's natural for the dollar to strengthen and to produce our net exports to increase the net he exports of other countries which are growing more slowly. what's been going on is really a natural process of adjustment. >> i guess the fear is and the imf has been vigilant on warning that policies need to be coordinated. you're talking about potentially more easing or staying with accommodated policy in big economies like europe and japan. at the same time as you are talking about tightening in the u.s. how worrisome is that, and when you say the economic risks are tilted the down side, do you have that in mind that these policies are looking like they're moving in different directions? >> well, policies need to move in different directions when economies are at different spaces of the business cycle. you know, when we call for coordination and cooperation, we're not talking about all
countries adopting the identical policies. i think the policy settings we're seeing are broadly appropriate. the risks we're identifying are probably more concentrated in the emerging markets regions where sharply depreciating currencies and falling commodity prices are creating challenges on the fiscal front in the financial sectors of those economies. that's not to say risk is totally absent in europe. there's still a legacy of nonperforming loans and european economies need to be working on those where they're present. the banking in europe is still a work in progress. >> very quickly, this is your first time with us. this is your first world economic outlook. you're filling big shoes. what is your hope to bring to the imf, and specifically, with some of the criticisms that the imf economics department has been way too optimistic? i think this is the third or
fourth time you're actually cutting global gdp estimates. >> well, we are constantly updating our estimates on the basis of the new data that comes in. you know, we have excellent intelligence from our country desks, and they're tracking all the developments. we're in a very dynamic situation now where, you know, china's pattern of production and consumption is changing rapidly leading to slower growth. commodity prices are at the end of a super cycle, and the fed is making a transition to monetary normalization, whose time issing very uncertain. in that environment it becomes hard to forecast. we're trying to be on the ball and, you know, constantly revising what we think in the light of new data. inevitably forecasts are going
to be off. >> we've got to leaf it there. thank you for joining us from lima. i know it's a long connection there. it's good to see you. we look forward to talking to you further. the new chief economist at the imf. >> good stuff, sarah. thank you so much. when we come back, a scandal rocking the daily fantasy sports industry. nfl super agent drew rosenhaus weighs in. microsoft gets set to unveil new phones and tablets at an event in new york. lfr seeing pictures of a new wearable and its virtual reality hollow lens device. a top voice from microsoft. q4 expected to be big for ipo's with names like ferrari, square, and first data set to go public, but according to a top ipo watcher, some of these offerings could be in trouble. we'll talk about why when "squawk alley" comes back. important than your health. or the freedom to choose what doctor you want to see. so if you have medicare parts a and b, consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan,
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>> an employee inadvertently released -- also, revealing that employees at both firms were betting on rival sites, including some employees or at least one employee who won a considerable amount of money doing that. both companies say that nothing untoward happened here that put out a statement and i'll give it to you. this is a key element to the statement. they say while the industry works to develop and release a more detailed policy. draftkings and fanduel have decided prohibit employees from participating in on-line fantasy response contests for money. just to give you a sense of how big this unregulated new industry is, it's an explosive growth business. about $2.6 billion expected in entry fees this year. 41% annual growth expected. i should note that comcast ventures and nbc sports ventures have stakes in fan duel. a big and developing story here that makes a big difference for
a lot of sports fans around the world. >> yeah. i'm getting a lot of attention as you said. thank you very much. joining us on the phone this morning is nfl agent drew rosenhaus, the ceo of rosenhaus sports. drew, it's good to talk to you. >> good to be with you guys. >> eamon points out the money that's flooded into the space, and also the suspicion that is a lot of people have had about the model in general. what was your reaction to this story? >> well, it's unfortunate. for me it's an ageas an agent, for the -- fantasy football is unbelievable for the nfl. it generates billions potentially over the years, and i want to see it have integrity. i'm very concerned about this. you know, there should be some regulation that maintains great integrity. we can't have employees of companies using inside information to play. it's fwot to be regulated.
it's got to be cleaned up and continue to be fair for their consumers and their customers because it's great for business and great for professional football. >> drew, is it as simple as just prohibiting employees of these companies who are playing? i'm thinking of publically traded companies have restrictions for how their employees can buy and sell stock of their own company, but these are privately held companies. it's a gray area. should this be as simple as just prohibiting employees from interacting with it? >> well, that apparently is the problem right now. i think if you eliminate that, i don't know that there have been any other noted or, you know, problems that have occurred. i don't know that you need to overregulate or make any other changes at this time. this is apparently the first significant problem or chink in the armor of this incredible industry. if all have you to do is watch an nfl game, and you see all kinds of draftkings and fan duel
and other businesses that are thriving on fantasy football. it's incredibly lucrative. i hi if they eliminate the insider trading and employees playing on other leagues and other sites, we should be okay. >> drew, i was talking to some players who have extremely high value accounts who are extremely successful at this new form of fantasy. they argue that it would amaze investors how much of those high value accounts in dfs are employees of another site as this worker in question was. doesn't that bother you? >> yeah, it does. it impacts the integ. if you are playing an employee of another company, that's not fair. again, i think that this is great for football, and it's something that is incredibly productive and very lucrative. it's something that is highly
popular, but it could all fall apart if they have these insiders playing against, you know, fans. that's not right. they have to eliminate that altogether, and one way of doing it is if you work in this industry, you cannot participate in any of this betting for fantasy football on-line. >> i'll tell you, i mean, it's been a longstanding complaint that there have been a lack of industry norms. this duopoly between them. they are reaching very far for growth. that lends the air of suspicion about the whole model. you would agree with that. >> yeah, i would. so while i think this is a great business and great for professional football and fans love -- we want to make sure that there's integ, that there's fairness that, there are rules that everyone has an equal
opportunity to win. >> got to make adjustments at this point. it is a lucrative industry. on its principle, it's awesome for football, but, you know, now it's getting out of control and people are trying to cheat the system, and make a lot of money off of it. >> drew, it's always good to get your point of view. we'll talk again. >> coming up, a new tablet, phones, and virtual reality. just some of the headlines from the microsoft event in new york city today. we are live uptown with a top
zeets let's bring in simon hobbs. simon. >> we're down at the open. what's now going across the market towards the close is this strong move that we have on the price of oil, which has lifted the oil majors. it's lifted up 2% as can you see, and a number of the oil majors are higher as brent heads towards $52 a barrel. volkswagen -- let's have a look at the oil majors. volkswagen is certainly having a good day today. managing to get some traction. today is the day that the c ceo spoke to 20,000 workers at the headquarters. he is talking about counselling nonvital investments, remedies he said across the country will not happen without some pain.
while some cars just need to have their software tweaked, there will have to be hardware installations for others. we're up 4%. perhaps even the head of the workers council is talking about reigning back some of the bonuses of the workers get. financials taking over there and ailing bit of a rally. sab miller is not fairing quite so well today on this report that they've already rebuffed an offer from anheuser-busch. down 4% almost as you can see. >> finally, let me take you to luxembug for an important story. an austrian law student has won a resounding victory against facebook in the european union's top court. the european court of justice striking down the existing u.s. data that allows companies like facebook and google to take the data they have on europeans to u.s. servers on the basises the court heard that there is mass indiscriminate surveillance of data in this country and that
europeans should not be subjected to that. you now have a legal vacuum into which the national regulators will have to set to try and see whether privacy is sufficient. that's a nightmare for a number of big u.s. operators. the likes of facebook and google have been significant in europe for problems. back to you. >> thank you very much. siman hobbs. >> when we come back, microsoft's next generation on display at an event this morning. new phones, new tablet, and virtual reality on display. we are live at the event with a top voice from microsoft. in a moment. but what if you could see more of what you wanted to know? with fidelity's new active trader pro investing platform,
good morning, everyone. i'm sue herrera. here is your cnbc news update at this hour. u.s. general john campbell, the american commander in afghanistan, telling the senate armed services committee the decision to carry out a deadly air strike in kunduz which hit a hospital was made within the u.s. chain of command. campbell saying he is confident afghan forces will regain control of kunduz. israel has demolished the homes of two palestinian militants who carried out deadly attacks in jerusalem last year. the move comes amid weeks of
heightened palestinian unrest in east jerusalem and the west bank. a dutch freighter ship sank early today after colliding with a tanker in the north sea off the belgium coast. all crew members were rescued from the waters. the tanker also suffered damage and is now in port. the cause not known yet. and research shows that there is potential for an exercise pill. the pills tested mostly in animals are made from the compounds that mimic some of the effects of exercise like developing new blood vessels and boosting cell energy. sometimes perhaps in the near future you can get off the couch and take a pill. that's our cnbc news update this hour. back to "squawk alley." carl, that's a dream come true. >> yes, indeed, sue. it is a special day at ubs today, and here on the floor of the new york stock exchange, our dear friend art cashin is celebrating 35 years of service with the bank. of course, he is director of floor operations, and he joins says on set.
congratulations. >> thank you. >> it was a little touch and go. there was a lag of back office problems, so we discussed me coming with the firm and that lasted for about, i guess, six months. then the partner that i work for said, look, i didn't court my wife this long. i said, okay, i'll come. he said why? he said you like me says what he is going to say before before he comes into the meeting, and then sticks with it. >> what year is this? is this 1980? >> yeah, that would be somewhere around 1980, i hi. >> we have a lot of younger generations, a lot of millenials
who watch this show who view the company man and the company woman as an endangered species. i'm wondering what do you think back on 35 years with the company wrrn. >> when you tend to build up a little bit of credibility and things get rough in the market and what not, then people come to seek you out. that's a great reinforcement to know that people trust you in a way like that. i'm not sure they're correct in doing it. >> in fact, earlier in the week i said to you -- i said off camera, how did you make this fed call, which is going pretty well, long ago that they would not hike this year. you said practice, practice, practice. >> well, you keep doing it long enough, and you do get it right. >> someone today said a day like this is like declaring war on the ice cubes. i assume that's true. >> the ice cubes do not stand a
chance. >>. >> microsoft putting wearables on display. the top voice in a moment. dow up 36. rick santelli, what's on your mind? >> well, i think we have to talk about the trid balance number, which was a deficit. specifically imports and exports. of course, we had some auctions yesterday that raised some eyebrowed, but all in all it's just the market in general. rates don't seem to be doing things logically all after the break.
coming up on the halftime report, jobs didn't seem to scare the markets. it's produced a three-day rally. does that mean a bottom is in? plus, we have a big food fight on the show today. mcdonald's, young, and pepsi all in the spotlight. our desk gives you their favorite food play. we need the stock. and the first woman to coach in the nfl joins us. we're going to get an inside look at the league, where the nfl is head, and this big fantasy scandal. back to you. >> sounds good. see you in a bit. let's go to the cme group and rick santelli and get the santelli exchange. rick. >> good morning, carl. well, what did today's trade data tell us about the global economy? now, obviously it's just one data point, but as you dig through it, there's no doubt it
is reinforcing the notion that the glide path and the global economy is definitely not moving higher, and we can argue about the trajectory being a bit lower. just consider that the strongest as the global economy weakens, are going to end up being the recipient of a lot of the other countries exports. why? because many of the countries that are most adversely affected by a variety of issues, such as normalization and capital moving in and out are countries that have export economies, and when you consider europe and you understand volkswagen and the auto industry and what's going on in europe and germany, these are important. exports today on a month-over-month basis were off a couple of percent. on a dollar basis, i believe the number was 85, 186 billion. this represents the lowest dollar value since october of 12. just shy because this was september data of three years. the imports give us good information as well. as i mentioned wrerl, up 1.2.
we're buying things because our economy on a relative basis is doing okay. others are exporting more and more and potentially trying to get their currencies weaker and weaker to make the price more advantage wrus to that export market. >> it takes a lot of team. now, in terms of jobs, you know, what do we learn about jobs since friday? today. we just need to create 1200,000 jobs a month, and we'll stay at 5.1% in terms of the unemployment rate.
i have no doubt he is exactly correct. what about all those that are stranded that don't have jobs who have gotten left out. the millions and millions of people who are of working age, they're able to work, but they've disappeared from the work force. >> i want to be bringing in people. the way that works has pushed the rate higher. we see two spreads of estimate great and high yield start to turn up. rick santelli. after a slow summer, the big quarter for ipo's on ferrari, square, and first data just a few of the names expected to go public in the next few months alone. we'll take a closer look at
here to chat about the ipo's is david menlo. it's great to see you. >> great to be here. >> we just listed a bunch of names. there's long laubdry list of household names waiting to go public, but it's biotech that is most popular in the pipeline. why is that? >> i think it is because of an overextension of the deal fever that was happening in the biotech sector, and because of all the advances in the engineering side that bring these stocks up to the front and say this was never possible a year or two or three years ago. it's a residual that's laying there, and almost going to probably sabotage the market if the valuations don't change. >> although if i bought into one of these deals earlier in the year, 60% of ipo's are trading believe the ibo prays. i would think -- what's stopping investors from saying i'm not going to get into that asset class? >> it's actually saying that to all the investors, which is why many of the headlines are saying the ipo market is really in bad shape. we go through this periodically.
i have been doing this for 25 years. the valuations just get too frothy, and then the markets step back and say not me again. almost what you are every were alluding to. then we go through a haircut in value wags. resets, especially in the biotechs. you can see 25 to 30. even as much as 50% into valuation changes from the filing to where they price these deals, and that's what the market needs in a lot of different sectors. >> one of the arguments we've heard wrerl in the year, and big xepgs was that the market was being discerning sector to sector, right? was being diligent in pricing on day one. people said it's another ipo, and it came after with a vengeance, and theyover price. >> do you think it's busier in the fourth quarter than the
earlier part of the we're? >> i don't expect it's going to be that much busier, but we're going to have to see what happens with the sectaries. that's going to indicate what the appetite of the marketplace is. also, the valuation haircuts. these deals that you were just talking about, these are deals that are just going to move up and up in price. they're going to have jausments, higher and higher. they're going to take much of the wind out of the sails of some of the deals and people say hot name, hot this and everything. the deals will open disappointingly high, and at that point everybody is going to look around and say what do i do now? the stocks will end up failing. you'll see a lot more of that, and, unfortunately, private equity concerns are going to be pushing these value wags still to very unrealistic levels and at some point it's going to exhaust people. >> you mean private equity
owners of first data, albertson's, of some of the companies? >> private equity owners like that. albertson's, they own their stock at $2.32 a share. they're making their money any way they can. >> if i'm a company that has aspirations of going public, is this my last chance? >> there is never a last chance. >> that's one thing, but we just want to get it to the public market and release maybe 15% of our stock into the marketplace. we will take a 25% haircut. then it's going to be open season for everybody. ut births not going to happen. >> a few more data points. we'll see how they play out. we appreciate you joining us
today. >> good to be here. >> david menlo, of ipo financial. >> ibm announce agnew unit that will focus on capitalizing on the company's software. the new consulting group will advise companies on how to use watson to their advantage and our david faber asked ibm ceo earlier about how exactly that will work and whether it will translate to real up side for ibm. here's what she had to say. >> the kinds of results we're seeing, i think, are quite astounding. whether it is the idea that a supply chain drives anywhere 2% to 10% new sales, five points more margin or if there's actually cognition in learning and how you fill out an insurance form, 9 points higher sales. to me that forms a foundation that is all about what we do for our future success and what makes our clients successful in the future.
if are you just checking in, you might look in the dow and say it's up, but could pont is masking an awful lot of weakness. dupont by far the best dow component after ellen coleman will resign. they cut their operating net guidance for the full we're from 275 down to 310. the dow may look like it's flat, but dupont is propping it up. the s&p is down ten points. >> still no news on what precipitated coleman's departure, though. at least it is helping the stock today despite that proxy win for the company earlier this year. take a look also at the ibb, the biotech etf. that is plummeting intraday. normally we don't use that word, but it is down 6% or more since the open.
currently down about 6 1/3%. september lows, people were saying perhaps that's the bottom in the ibb. not so when you look at it today zoosh twitter, of course, unveiling this new product called moments, which you probably knew about as project lightning before it was actually announced. it's going to allow you to essentially let twitter cure ate certain events for you so you don't have to necessarily follow people. you can follow events like south carolina flooding, for instance. might make thing easier for new users who don't already have a lot of people that they're following. stock, though, off 4% after having a nice couple of days after jack dorsey was named permanent ceo. then happy birthday, instagram. the photo sharing app turns 5 years old today. founded back in 2010 by current ceo kevin sistrum. you recall facebook bought it in 2012 for $1 billion. 700 in stock. just 300 in cash. they only have about 40 million users then. of course, now we know they have ten times that. >> now they are bigger than
twitter. every time we talk about a snap chat or another company that's valued above $10 billion, above $15 billion, you have to think did instagram sell too low? sistrum said no we were only able to grow because we had facebook. we may never know. >> it will go down, some argue, as one of the best purchases by zuckerberg in his short tenure at facebook. a new survey out has reflected amazon's dominance. according to a survey from software start-up bloom reach, some 44% of on-line shoppers said they go directly to amazon when looking to buy or research a product on-line. 2,000 people participated in the survey. of course, amazon has been called the everything store. the fact that 44% of people start there would seem to confirm that. >> unbelievable. 44 started at zon. 34 go to google, and then 21 go to an individual retailer's
website. whether or not you think the sample size is material, that's pretty interesting data brought to us by read code. >> microsoft showcasing everything from holographic technology to a new tab let. josh swroinz us on the newsline today to sort of recap what we've seen so far. josh, your thoughts? >> well, carl, this event just now wrapping up here in new york. this was the biggest hardware invention in microsoft's history. you saw new phones. >> number of the's operating system that formerly launched in
swrul. microsoft giving us an wrupted number there as well. already 110 million devices activated on windows ten. >> some of the comments that you have been posting from nodella, swrosh. this idea that what matters is the mobility of experience as devices come and go. no device is going to be your hub. the hub, you said, is you. >> yeah. microsoft -- when nodella took the stage, microsoft is wrapping up all these new devices. it's his words all bringing what he calls amazing injoe vegas with windows. he said he wants people to love windows rsh. that's his maubt are a here. he said people are coming home to windows, and to your point, yeah, saying that, listen, microsoft getting this new chapter of windows 10.
>> devices come and go. no device is a hub forever. just the hub is you. >> big day for josh. thanks for your coverage. >> we're not done. kayla and i will be back this afternoon on "closing bell." for now let's get over to headquarters, michelle, on the half. ♪ >> our game plan looks like this. we're going to have a food fight. john belushi from all day breakfast to back to the future, peps where i. we're going to pick the most appetizing stocks for your portfolio. and put me in, coach. the nfl's first female coach joins