tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC October 20, 2015 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT
>> john ledger pushing back that the units night go negative for the industry in q4. let's go to scott whopner, and the half. >> welcome to the halftime show. let's meet our starting line-up for today. jim is here, along with joe, josh brown, and pete. the force awakens as a new trailer for the star wars film drops. why is the street still on the dark side of disney trade? black and blue. what ibm's big miss means to your money and the portfolio of one of our own.
it continues to run. swron than of mkm made our call of the day, and is he with us live. swron than, welcome. >> i think it's important to clarify here first. we're not saying that the long-term structural up trend is over by any means, but i think for the short-term perspective, the odds of significantly risen that we should see a bit of a pullback in nike shares. this is stock that's 26% against the long-term 100 day moving average. that's the widest spread, and there's only been a couple of times in the last few years that we've seen a spread this wide to its 200 day. both about 9% to 10% pullbacks in the coming months.
>> tens to find support and find resistance at the upper end. in fact, last august after the august pullback, we did find support. now it's broken well above the up side of this channel. >> are you making what's obviously a technical call. >> you think a modest pullback. that's about 12% lower. that would represent a better risk-reward. >> this is a stock eight out of ten sell side analysts. if you go back to 2013, there was only 40%. i think to your point, it's been an amazing stock, but a lot of those priced in, and a lot of these long-term expectations have come out. tactically, we just think the risk reward is better elsewhere. >> hey, jonathan. are you talking about a
technical call on nike where i, and i know that a lot of you are technical calls relate to macrotype of trades. >> it's not the counter, but i think it does fit into our macrocall that the overall market is going to find a lot of resistance here in the 2040, 2060. >> there are other stock names besides nike that you make these types of calls on? >> certainly there are. one of the things we've been focussing on is the consumer discretionary sector. >> if you look at the equal weight, they're down year-to-date. these names have been resilient,
but at some point a lot of them do end up succumbing, and that's really all we're looking for is a modest pullback. >> at a certain point do you say this stock has managed to consolidate above an elevated level, and now it's ready for the next leg higher. how would you know that's the case? >>. >> if are you making a short-term trade -- we probably risk 2% on the out side. if you are an investor looking longer term time horizon there's a possibility that the steady trend continues. when we look back historically -- >> well, the risk is to that up side, isn't it?
>> the expectation is it will. >> if you look over the last 15 years, there's only been two other times where nike has been this extended above its 200 day moving average. when it gets this extreme, there's high odds it's going to pull back. now, of course, we could always be wrong, but we're taking the odds that history will repeat itself and you'll find yourself the better entry point in the coming days. >> john, it almost sounds like you have a pretty strong conviction about this, and it seems like it's almost all technical because you actually not only say, hey, look, if you have long exposure, i think you reduce it, but you even say or even potentially go short it. can you -- is that part of this whole thing is your conviction is that this is going to pull back? it's not just a maybe. it's more of an it is.
the 2% threshold. again, historically speaking, when it gets this extreme, that's where sometimes the best trades go counter to the long-term trend, right? some of the beaten down energy names you've seen some of the best moves to the up side. this is kind of the inverse of that. it's something that's so good that we think near-term that favors a pullback. >> real quick, i just heard you say the next couple of days, you actually think it happens that quick? a 67% pullback? >> no, i think the start of it is likely to happen. >> what do you make of this? >> i go back to the same question. i don't care what the technicals -- you sell it. when do you get back in? >> i think that's a good question. the answer has to be look at his chart. i mean, his chart is he is saying it's broken out of the channel, so i guess you wait for it to come back to the channel.
>> utsdz not a call that investors should pay attention to. it's a call that traders should pay attention to. people looking at week to week, month to month performance. this might be a great opportunity for them or even a reason to take a profit. for someone who is invested in nike, & they believe the case that this is going to be the next global brand, global juggernaut, why would you care if it pulls back 10%. if anything, you would here for it to so you could add to your position.
>> now you have your correction in place. if he is correct, you can sit there and breathe normally, and you're not going to be feeling that pressure. if he is wrong and this stock does make the move to the up side, you ride along with it. >> look, he may be right. the stock may have some sort of pullback. is this a name you want to trade, or is this a name you want to own? >> depends who are you. >> for the 50 successful day traders in the world, they -- >> that's my point. >> they could go against -- they could go fight against the fundamentals out there right now. i don't think they're liquidating their holdings of nike because this call unless they see a radical fundamental change. if you listen to the investor day, it didn't suggest that. >> it goes to the conversation of whether you listen more to the technicals or the fundamentals.
>> there's another group of stocks that doesn't have the fundamental back drop that nike does. whether they're accelerating revenue growth and whether they have pricing growth. >> what josh is saying it's a price question. we know what the fundamentals are and that it's very positive. if are you going to sell as a long-term investor here, not a day trader, then you are saying it's just too rich right now.
>> if you sell it here, you have to be a short-term trader, which i for one am not. you have to be red to get in 20 points later. >> it's the same sort of issue with apple at times. >> am is a perfect example if you follow the technicals on a little bit more than a couple of days or a couple of months, it's guided you incredibly well as to what you should do. >> apple has been cut three times for the last seven or eight years, and the company's fund mentals were not cut in half. the reason why anyone would use technicals if they're a little more concerned about the shorter term. if you are not and you are investing in a company because
it's underlying business, then you're not paying attention to potential for a -- you should assume every day you wake up, every stock in your portfolio has the ability to lose 10%. >> whether it's a trade or an investment. you always have to attack it from every single angle. verizon today, that appeared to weigh on the stock, although now you see it's back up by 2% above its -- above its 50-day moving average. this still is a stock that hoz confounded a lot of people because it hasn't done anything lately. >> what's the guidance going to be as it relates to the holiday
quarter. >> are you looking at the stock, and you say it hasn't moved in a long time. it's a long-term hold. that's what it is. a lot of guys are bailing out of it, and all the rest of it. we hear that although time. it's not a bail time. those are the opportunities. >> i do think what's gone on with apple is the same thing that went on in the beginning of 2013, late 2012 where you had almost a wholesale changeover in the owners. in 2013 since the early part of this year, and a lot of people just wanted to take the gains and move on. you have to let the new hands come in in temz of the ownership of the shares.
>> all right. at least from a nike standpoint, it's a fun conversation. 24 hours after we had an analyst on who called it the next mega cap juggernaut. that being evercore isi on nike where i. you got a technical analyst on today who says -- >> they could both be right. >> one hedge fund manager saying the penalty for being long and wrong is high. look at ibm for that example. what can you buy in this environment? dan niles of alpha one capital joins with us his play coming up. surprise!!!!! we heard you got a job as a developer! its official, i work for ge!! what? wow... yeah!
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>> why did you think it was going to be otherwise? >> let's talk about a distinction between the halftime portfolio and real investing. >> just in general. >> i didn't think it was going to be great, but i didn't think it was going to be this bad. >> expectations were set incredibly low for ibm. >> i don't want to be gratuitous about this. even with the low expectations they really found a way to underwhelm. i will say the one positive thing is that there's strategy eenlic michigantives growing, but outside of that they have a lot of problems. margins are coming in. they beat on basically a tax change, and frankly, the worst thing is this guidance down by almost a dollar. rather, 75 cents at the midpoint.
the problem is it's going to take a long time to come to fruition. i saw this in the halftime portfolio, which is a trading portfolio, and it's a five stock portfolio. normally no one runs a five stock portfolio. we have 20 stocks in our most concentrated portfolio, and that portfolio is outperforming today even with ibm. sometimes have you days like today. it sdnlt feel good, and have you to move on from it. >> anybody? >> ibm. >> thub every their forecast is to lower once again. this is a company that you just really question. i know we've talked about it all the time.
>> this is a stock that has not produced a single buy signal going back to 2012. yes, it's nice that buffett is buying it, and it's nice that it's i bluechip and it's a 100-year-old company and it's global. et cetera, et cetera. there's been literally no reason to be catching a falling knife in this name for almost three years. if you want to look at a really long-term chart, where should this thing find true support or where should the sellers truly exhaust themselves? looks like 120-ish. >> if you are looking for a place where the buyers should support it, that's probably your best blew. >> okay. as ibm shareholders are finding today, being long and wrong can be especially painful in a current environment. that's the view of our next guest. dan niles is the founding partner of alpha one capital back with us today. welcome back. >> nice to be back on. >> let me get your comment on ibm and this whole notion about
being long and wrong. >> i think investors have developed really bad habits over the last four years, so the last 10% correction you have before this one was back in october of 11. had you lots of stimulus, and that's been global. it hasn't been just in the u.s. it's been japan, europe, and china most recently. so what that's happened is you have been able to bail out really bad investment wrdz because the market goes up. when the market goes up, everything goes up. even if it's under performing, it makes you feel pretty good. you get into this habit of, oh, well, it's cheap. had he missed 10 out of 11 quarters on the top line. a 9 pe. it's got to be interesting. and that only works with markets are going up.
the problem is when markets are where they are today and if you think about the global economy, you know, brazil and russia wra are in a recession. japan, europe, barely -- japan is barely positive gdp growth. the u.s. is really the strongest engine there. bhaets easy to forget is like with an ibm, 55% of their revenues are outside the u.s. you are finding a big headwind, and for the s&p 30% of theirs is outside the u.s. as you have seen with ibm, yes, expectations were low, but the stock is still getting hit because the fundamental on our good. >> how long have you been short? >> i can't remember. you have me on the show a lot. i don't think i have said anything positive on ibm in, i don't know how long. >> okay. >> let's just leave it at that. >> point taken. let me ask you about another stock that when you were last on you spoke about. that being wal-mart. i believe you were long the last time you were on with us, and, of course, i have to ask you just given what happened recently where you are on the stock, if anywhere.
>> yeah. i mean, i think i sent you a note back when you asked me about that. we got about a month and change ago. if you remember, wal-mart had a note out talking about they had some accounting things that they were looking at with regards to their leases. clearly, that has not happened. consumers seem to be saving more. >> the attention from amazon has -- gdp keeps getting revised lower and resale sales expectation. you know, if are you about to catch a falling knife, you better have a good fundamental
reason for it improving. if it isn't, there's no reason to hang on, if you have other names that might be out there. >> what is attractive? if it's hard to find things you like, what are you doing right now with the portfolio? >> well, i mean, with the portfolio, we're incredibly defensive. you know, we're sitting on some of the lowest exposure we've had in a very long time. you know, as you talked about earlier, you know, if you are beating, your stock is up 2%, 3%. if you are missing like net flick or jp morgan or you pick your favorite name, ibm, this morning, you are going down 5% or 10%. people are getting crammed into the -- the smaller and smaller subset of names.
>> i think you're going to sew massive wave have consolidation coming as you get towards the end of the year. >> are you more event-driven than looking right now just getting where we are. >> it's very hard to find stuff that you are going to feel great about on a fund mental basis, and making a valuation argument, i think, you know, it's not very smart if you are in a secularly challenged space. >> right. >> i got to run. thank you for calling in. we will talk to you soon. dan with us today. >> real quick on ibm, the fact that warren buffett buys ibm down is one of the problems right now with ibm, and i think there's many people out there that use that as an excuse and lose their sell discipline on it because warren buffett is in it, does not mean you have to be in it. remember that. >> all right.
coming up after a rough few months, one of our traders sarat is feeling better over his bet on yum as the company splits in two. will he take a bite into the chinese business? find out next. we head into year end -- as we head into year end, our trade rerz feeling the heat and making moves. we break down their moves next. you are watching cnbc first in business worldwide.
>> yum brands announce it will split off its business after naming keith meister to the board. cnbc contributor and yum shear holder sarat joins us now on the phone. hey, sarat. >> how are you? >> good. we talked about this on friday. i said i didn't think that this was going to take that long to happen. i don't know that any of us expected it would take a matter of a weekend. >> i agree. i thought they were going to tell us at their analyst meeting how they were going to do that. i think basically what they've given us is a framework. can you separate the two companies into yum brands and yum china. everything that's not yum china
falls into yum brands. zoo figure the debt will go up, and the other part is going to be franchised in china. not a lot of data this moment. >> no debt. there's no debt in the china business. you have franchise co, if you will. >> right. >> which is levered like some of the piers. domino's and some others. then the china business which has no debt at all. >> just tell me, which piece to you as a big shareholder is more attractive? >> having the break-out details in terms of the valuation and what it's going trade at, but i think today if you look at yum china without any debt and the beauty of that model is they are going to sell their stores and take that capital and keep on growing, what i like about that piece is you are going to have local management now running it. i think you're going to get
better growth there. is than issue of the company or just an issue of china? i think, you know, that's probably going to be trading a lot more volatility than yum. >> well, it's already lost half the day's gains. look, i think it's got a lot of support in the mid 60s. you know, as it tests that level. that's where i get interested with the stock just below.
>> are they bailing at exactly the wrong time? you go back to when you are at the top of the market. now here we are at the bottom of their market in terms of yum. lot low end anyway. caterpillar boosts. you look at the tops, right? look at where those stocks are now. i look at this right now, and i wonder have they actually decided to jetison this at the right time, or is it the wrong -- >> i would say that keith meister is kind of the man and i saw him lay out his case for this originally when he first announced it.
you need a company that's based in china and has a full appreciation for your share price and that's the kind of thing that requires -- of this bess, and i think he laid that out very well about why you would get multiple expansion, et cetera, as a result of doing it. >> the unfortunate consequence of this is yum china is going to be a proxy for a macrocondition in china. it's going to be one volatile stock. one volatile stock. >> which i think is what the activists would argue is holding back the whole thing. this piece of business in china that is growing fast, but is very unreliable. all kinds of problems. >> the upcoming star wars movie isn't getting one analysts excited about disney, and he is not alone. will the force be enough to lift disney stock? more halftime up next.
they are testing more than 20 new data elements they say on tax returns that will be shared to help detect and prevent identity theft related filings. the american cancer society revising its advice on when women should start getting mammograms and how often. the updated guidelines recommend annual screenings at age 45 instead of 40 and switching to every other year at age 55. the update also drops the recommendation for routine physical breast exams by doctors. more violence in the middle east. israeli forces killing a palestinian man near the west bank city of hebron after he allegedly tried to stab an israeli soldier during a riot. in a separate incident an israeli settler was killed when he was reportedly run over by a palestinian man also in hebron. amazon plans to hire 100,000 people for the holidays. a 25% jump from a year ago. it will begin hiring across the country for jobs in its fulfillment and sorting facilities. amazon has more than 90,000
full-time employees. i can't believe we're talking about the holidays. that's the cnbc news update this hour. back to you, scott. >> oh, they're going to be here before you know it. that chill in the air, sue, tells you that. >> you got it. >> it's going to be, like, 70 tomorrow. >> let's keep the holidays at bay for a little while longer. >> thanks. >> there's a huge buzz around disney following last night's premere of the final star wars trailer, but the upcoming blockbuster isn't enough to excite one analyst. pivotal research initiating disney with a hold saying the good news is already priced in. you guys believe that? >> the stock has had trouble since the whole espn thing. >> well, if star wfrz of the whole story, maybe you could say that. so much else happening. there's so much else happening at this company. you know, i don't think it's priced in. i think there are high expectations. >> is the stock getting enough love, or is it -- >> i think it got oversold based on the comments from the ceo and what he actually said about
espn. >> let's call it 20 times this year's earnings for a stock that has historically had some great growth. now, look, scott, you're right. they got clobbered during the summer, and it wasn't just espn. it was obviously what happened overseas. >> rightly or wrongly. >> i don't think rightly, frankly. i think that it's starting to climb back. you see that in the chart. at this valuation i think it's very -- >> it's down 8% in three months. can't get much momentum. >> if you look at it off of the bottom, off of the late august, early september bottom, that's actually a pretty nice sharp rise. >> recovered more than half. >> fair point. >> recovered more than half of the loss that it had from one -- >> this was a reasonable price.
>> the slate that disney has come out in front of us. why would you favor a different name in the group if this is trading at relatively the same multiple if not cheaper than a lot of the other entertainment companies. >> thets why it's a tech company. >> you talk -- you talk about the movies and the stocks at 110. you got star wars coming up. it's kind of like throwing harvey into grom at the cubs. you are coming up next with "frozen 2" which will be coming out soon. >> i'm so excited for star wars.
i'm going to pass out right now. what's next, scott? let's move on. >> you take a look at the leaderboard. >> all right. let's do that. god. >> we do have a lot of moves. a bunch of trades. there it is. stephanie links now in the lead. 9.5%. >> i sold something else. i sold a company that got acquired. no reason for the sale other than the fact that they got acquired. i'm now carrying, i think, the most cash that i've been since the start of this contest. i have on tell you, it's accidental. based on my screens and the quantity takiveway way i'm running this portfolio, i don't have a buy campaign right now. hoping to change that, but in the meantime, i don't feel terrible having a little bit of a cushion here. it's been a good year. i'm way ahead of the benchmark.
i'll only have four. i got stopped out yesterday. i'm sticking to the discipline and the strategy. that's what you have to do. huge down day for me. >> john make moves as well. he joins us now on the phone. >> just last week we added fire eye and goldman. both of them made nice moves to the up side. i'm trying to stick with the same sort of thing as josh and joe as far as sticking with some discipline, cutting losses, and in the case of super value that's a stock that did not do well.
>> goldman and fire eye both made the pops as soon as they started to pull back today. i called in, and lick with youed ated both of those too. i've got a lot of cash, and like the other guys, i'm looking around for an opportunity here. hopefully this afternoon or tomorrow i get one. >> what can you give us a hint as to where you're looking? >> well, let's see. i like what pete likes, but microsoft has done very well for us. we've had some unusual call buying in there. the last two days now. again, november calls again today. i certainly looked at that one. up at 47.5 or so versus 49 or 50 top that it's been at this year. i didn't know if going into the earnings with that was the best use of my money right now. looking at several of these stocks in the tech sector, not surprisingly. at least not surprising to me, judge, that some of those are playing out pretty well. >> we'll see you back on the set. >> thank you, guys. >> all right. >> follow the action. by the way, cnbc.com/pro.
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for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. >> lockheed kicking off earnings for the defense sector. these stocks have been the ultimate safe haven for investors, but with uncertainty over the debt ceiling and budget, can the winning streak continue? plus, check out the midcaps. they're holding up much better than the big cap and small cap rivals. is this the sweet spot for investors right now? and the real read on housing in one area that is on fire right now and fueling growth for her home builders.
lots of stuff coming up in the next two hours. sdoo less than 15 way. >> gold getting a boost as we see stocks fall into the red. birtha at the nymex with the futures now. >> hi, scott. gold is up better than nearly 5.5% for the month. doing better than the overall market. what's the next move? scott nations, what's behind this move that we've been seeing in gold of late? is it just all of the fed talk? >> that is number one. lower for longer from the fed helps gold. it's a tonic for gold bulls. fundamentals are not fwood in gold. we did learn today that russia had bought 34 metric tons of gold in the month of september. that's the most that they bought in a year. that means they tripled their holded since 2005. they now have more than they had at any time back for 1993 and buying is the final arbiter. >> that is certainly very interesting. jimmy, we've also got gold
sitting here right at its 200 day moving average. what's the next level to watch? >> i think if it closes strong today, i think it will be broken out of the medium term -- short-term consolidation period. i think it makes a run at 1,200. ultimately i think that 1,225 is my goal in the next few weeks. by the way, when scott nations says there's not a good fundamental story, he never thinks that for gold because he thinks it has no fundamentals. >> scott nations is not gold. does not love gold. >> coming up, we're going to talk more about gold on futures now at the top of the hour. we're going to be joined by gold expert george giro who will give us his take on where the precious metal is head and ahead of the opec special meeting going on in vienna. we're going to talk about, again, capitals john kilduff on what's ahead for crude. be sure to join us at cnbc.com at the top of the hour. scott, it's a great show. you won't want to miss it. >> we will not. thanks so much. see you then.
>> if you have owned the transports, you might be feeling like this. >> ah, but are there buying opportunities amid the sell-off. that trade is coming up next. ♪ some neighbors are energy saving superstars. how do you become a superstar? with pg&e's free online home energy checkup. in just under 5 minutes you can see how you
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a little steam taken out of the dow with the ibm numbers and the outlook. but that's the picture now. mostly a flat day on wall street. dow, by the way, on pace for the best month in two years. transports, though, showing signs of weakness. the sector still in correction territory. morgan brennan joins us for a look at the space. >> the dow jones transportation average is trounced. they're down 3%. weaker demand for oil and other commodities. that hurt the transportation companies that haul the commodities. also, a stronger dollar which is cut into experts and many companies bulk up on capacity. now they're worried the economy won't grow as quickly enough to fill all of the cars and trucks that are starting to come through. still, we have some analysts -- several of the beaten down stocks could be buying opportunities now. certainly preface this by saying
not for the faint of heart. take csx which reported better than expected earnings last week. it's facing headwinds particularly prolonged weakness in coal. but yesterday jp morgan added csx to the focus list and analyst consensus calls for 17% increase in this stock over the next 12 months. you can see right here. also, fedex, now this missed earns and lowered guidance reentsly. but it was also upgraded to a buy at steep will nicholas. that is thanks to restructuring progress. also expectation that's the tnt express deal will go through in europe. so consensus on facts for this stock that it could soar 20% over the next 12 months. lastly, mattson, this is an oceanfront carrier. they call this stock the best new idea for 2015. that is thanks to strong earnings power. so despite the recent pop, we have seen in shares, analysts think this stock could gain another 10%. a couple names to consider, to
check out. scott? >> morgan, thank you so much. so pete, you talk to me first about the transports. we were saying the transports are just coming off the best week in a year. sort of shows you the kind of pain that space has endured. what do you do with it in and out? >> i still continue to be on the airlin airlines. i think the one concern i have is speaking, looking at what we have from the analyst earlier, talking about nike, i look at that chart of delta and the huge surge to the upside. look at hawaiian airline who reported last night. huge surge to the upside. we were talking to stocks at 52 week highs or very close to them. and how fast that they have moved to the upside would tell me that at some point they have to pause back, maybe come back towards some of the moving averages just from a technical standpoint. but in term of business models, they've got great pricing now. obvious lit fuel is in their favor. there is a lot of reasons why i think you can stick with a lot of the airlines. >> i think it's interesting because quarter to date, most of
the transports have behaved counter to their overall trend for the year. and in the case of the airlines, you see alaska air, you see jetblue which have had strong year to date performances yet they pulled back. those are two names i would look at. other name, u.p.s. and fedex not mentioned enough. holiday tail winds behind it. >> coming up, three hours left in the trading day. a game plan for the second half including the earnings on deck is next. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. i built my business with passion.
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cnbc.com and read the full article. that is a clear impact on shares of tesla. down more than 5% right now. >> okay. but -- yeah, big time. let me temper that. anyone that down loads the new apple operating system the day it's released deserves the problems that they get. you want to buy a model s. you're buying an experiment. it's not, you know sh the fifth version of it. of course there will be issues. this is a battery powered car that's been on the road for less than a couple years. i think people should not be shocked. >> automobile terms, yeah, came to market yesterday. >> anybody have a different take? >> no? >> they no better. >> all right. fine. we look ahead to earnings. >> they don't drive model ss. joe drives cadillac. >> i'm not giving you yahoo. i'll talk gm if you want to talk anothers. >> somebody give me yahoo?
>> too complicated. yes, it bounced off the 30 level. >> god, don't be in the stock. that's the yahoo take. >> keep an eye on baba goes, that's where yahoo goes. >> that does it for us. we'll see you tomorrow. "power lunch" begin right now. >> and indeed it does, scott. thank you, gentlemen. thank you very much. and welcome, everybody, to "power lunch." a ton of big names out with earnings right now. harley-davidson getting slammed on its results. marne half the dow members do report this week. and while we're still early into the third quarter earnings season, there are already growing fears about earnings in the next or the current fourth quarter. >> lucockheed kicking off for t defense stocks. with all the