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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  October 23, 2015 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT

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enswroi the weekend, and let's ged over to scott whopner and "the half." ♪ >> our game plan looks like this. young money, the up and coming hedge fund manager with 29% annualized return since inception is with us today on the markets and so much more. the big short an investor currently betting against dozens of stocks is live today on why he sees the bear market ahead. we begin with the rally.
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stocks on track for a four-week winning streak led tote by blow-out results from tech giants, amazon, microsoft, and google. josh brown, you knew when the numbers came out that the nasdaq at least in and of itself was going to be off to the races today. >> it's a monster week for tech in general and just capped off by literally the fireworks of the post market trade last night. follow-through into this morning. now you have names like google up 30% plus. gigantic stock that's put on a huge move this year without a lot of help from the overall market. amazon is challenging netflix for being one of the best performers of the year. >> it's one that had invested heavily and is at the point where they're seeing returns,
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and one that's late to the game ask aring to envest to try to catch up. looking to rick right off the bat here. do you like tech? is this the place to be if i call you up today and you are managing my money? is this where we want to be? >> absolutely. tech is one of our three favorite sectors, but we're eating a lot of sweets. there's going to be more anti-digest john. structural issues have not been dissolved. we're devaluing competitively globally. that's not a good thing. finally, the fed is creating a lot more uncertainty by not telegraphing what their actions are going to be. tech is definitely one of the three sectors we like. >> are these names today a little to your analogy, a little too sugary? can you buy the stocks like this up this much? >> short-term i think they do continue to to well. there will be some agitation going forward. in the long run we like the stock market broadly, though. >> steve weiss. >> i actually bought netflix today for a trade. the nasdaq was going to move up. why not participate?
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i agree that there's some is trouble out there. nothing has been resolved from what pushed the market down in august. however, what has come in is that we've got draghe reinforcing what he is going to say. japan may go next week. china will go more. we don't know if it's working or not. the bottom line is with global easing going on, you have to be in the market. >> central banks get more involved. stocks go higher. >> it's not that complicated. >> some of the smartest guys that come on this show, like carl icon, with the september 29th gift to the stock market.
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that was 200 points ago, folks in the s&p 500 that carl came out and warned us. >> tech stocks, which i love along with you, big guy, these things are on fire right now. the only old tech stock that's sucking wind is ibm, and that's because it's not so much a technology play as it is a services play. >> well, you look at microsoft, for example, if you want to bring up ibm. cramer today saying they're getting it right. the stock, michael block, is at a 15-year high. cloud crushing it. bank of america upgrades to buy
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today. the sentiment on this name appears to have dramatically changed. >> yeah. sentiment of some of the names is incredible. we're getting microsoft, amazon, google a lot of people got hurt. don't me the guys that got hurt aren't along some of the tech names. something has to give at some point. they're getting a boost today. they are getting a nice gift. we are seeing pockets of weakness. steve is jumping out of his skin. i don't know if he wants to talk about retail. you know, stocks being weak today. >> i'll get to it eventually. >> i want to address the fact -- what's a benefit to the market and the sell ver lining that you said is that health care was a major leader in the market over it is last few years, and that's been crushed, decimated, yet the market hasn't rolled over with it. that's general aly risk when you lose the leadership. i would say that this is the
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most punitive market and the most rewarding market i have seen in such a long time. it's so binary. you have to be a stock picker. when we talk about stock picker's market for a number of years now, this is really hammering it home. if you own the wrong company, can you get crushed. sketch urz down 30%. if you own the right company, you'll double. amazon. you have to be careful. it's not buy them all and they'll go up. >> yeah. >> it's much harder. >> broadly speak, i think .
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>> you had pvh, and vf corp. getting hammered. taking the whole sector down. i added dollar tree today, which has had some problems with the merger. it's compellingly cheap selling it just at a ridiculously low ebida multiple. >> some of the retailers in particular, take a look at footlocker today. it's one we talk about here a lot on the desk. what's going on with nike, with foot looker, with under armor, in many cases people just wanted to take some off the table because of the runs these stocks are have had. that's certainly i thought was the case with under armor. there's real pain in this space right now. >> we've been speaking about the market. we've gotten a little bit of the hedge fund perspective as well, and kate kelly, we're getting a little bit more of it right now
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from one of the biggest and best known hedge fund managers out there who sounds pretty bullish. >> that's right, scott. lee cooperman of omewmega advis, who we know well. the he has a 7-point rationale for why. here are key points that he makes. he says the valuations remain reasonable. he says that with rates so low, stocks are still more attractive than bonds. you know this. he has been saying it for quite a while now. he said trying to invest in u.s. paper these days is like bending down in front of a bulldozer to pick up a dime or words to that affect. >> he does think valuations are reasonable. one final point on market structure. he shares carl icon's concern,
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scott, about etf's and the unrestrained trading in etf's. he thinks the s.e.c. should take a look at the risks will. >> he has been critical of some of the strategies used by certain funds, about high frequency trading. thank you so much. why don't you react to what mr. cooperman and einhorn are saying at omega. >> we agree. if we look at jobs growth going forward between 150,000, 250,000 a month we'll have a 4 3/4 unemployment rate. we have a structurally low interest rate and a strong consumer, and low interest rates versus equities. it's going provide a much favorable outlook for equity investing. >> how big is the runway between now and the end of the year? >> probably 4% to 6% more. >> absolutely. >> storm clouds are in the environment, so it's going to be very volatile. >> let me give lee husband due.
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>> if he is seeing value out there, he is the ultimate value investor. i think you have to pay attention. >> all right. our next guest so impressed by amazon's earnings, in fact, he raised his price target on that stock to a now street high $800. gene munster joins us from minneapolis. welcome back. >> hello. >> we were just talking about runways. you see a bigger one for this one. >> yeah. if you look at the total percentage that's bought on-line in the u.s., it's 9% that the stuff is bought on-line. eventually, as we surveyed different groups, that's greater than 30%. if you look at amazon, they grew their units at 26% last quarter. ebay grew their gmv at 6%. big share gainer, and what is a
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secular growth theme. this is an elementary student could tell you this, but it's still something that is an investable theme. we're very much on board with owning amazon. >> amazingly, they've managed to change the narrative as well, right? the commentary about lack of profitable, now they're profitable in three of the last five quarters. you can go down the list of metrics that seem to be hitting on all cylinders. which one stands out to you as the most important if you are thinking about buying this stock, which is already off to the races today? >> i think it's the unit growth. if you believe that more is going to be bought on-line than 26% unit growth that did get a benefit from a couple of percent, if you normalize 24%, it was 2% and 20% in the march quarter. you have seen two sec controversial quarters. that's the real story, i think. the margin story is important, but that's been talked about for the last three or four quarters. this whole unit growth part of the story has not played out in investors' minds. >> 80% growth in web services?
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>> it's beg. it's 8% of the revenue. rig lever in terms of the valuation. that number will come down a lot in the next few quarters just because they're enjoying some of the benefits of some price change, easy comps, essentially. think of that more as a 45% grower versus an 80% grower right now. >> hey, gene. amazon clearly a world beater. the 800 is a nice round number. can you tell the viewers how -- what's that is based on, please? >> it's 17 times 2017 ev to ebida. that's how we have traditionally thought about amazon's valuation. to put that 17 target multiple into perspective, google right now is trading at about 11 times, and so it's a significantly higher multiple versus google. we think just given the growth opportunity is where -- it deserves a bigger multiple. >> you say we're at 13 times now. you think it expands to 17? >> exactly. we think as these -- this story plays out on multiple level that is the multiple will go up.
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>> gene, does amazon have the best business model in the world right now? >> i think they do, and part of it is because they're hitting with you fwo different angles with retail and that's a similar theme, and i think if you just especially look at the other, you know, top ones, facebook has obviously got a good business model, but i think the sustainability of commerce is probably a bigger longer-term theme versus facebook. >> we haven't even mentioned prime and the potential of being a multi-year positive trend for this company. you know, at risk of becoming too giddy, what are the possible missteps that we should be worried about? is there anything out there that an investor needs to look at and perhaps take a pause today? >> you got to think about what traditional retailers -- they're the ones feeling the most pressure right now, and they're not going to give up. so that could force amazon into more of an investment phase and
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could cause investors confidence in the margin expansion to relapse. that's probably the biggest risk that's more near-term. >> unless you look at it and say, look, bazos did this before. we questioned him on it. now he is managed to figure out how to oil this machine whenever necessary so i don't know why we would doubt that. let me ask you quickly before i let you go about facebook. over $100 a day first time. you cover it. where does it go from here? >> i think it goes higher. this risk has come out next year. i think it's going to get investors pretty amped up. >> good to have you on today. thanks. interesting call. $800, the price target. now the highest on wall street. last comments on amazon. >> well, i think what they've done, obviously, to the old line retailers like wal-mart, as you said top of the show, has been dramatic, and they just continue to get better. wron why you would fade them here. >> you own a facebook, for example? >> within our etf's we do. >> you do? are we positive on facebook? >> now you are over $100.
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>> yeah. look, this is like one of those stocks where if you have a growth manager running money for you and he is not on n it, are almost like what are you even doing? why are you even a growth manager? this is a company that's growing like there's no tomorrow. every quarter rachets up the stakes and has so many things they haven't even pushed button-wise that it's just a must own stock for that type of, and in this environment of course they're going to panic buy this. >> streamers coming down today. >> it's reasonable. >> i'm not saying that your view on that is overly exuberant or irragsal or anything like that, but what happens if the fed moves before the end of the year? >> we think ultimately it's a net positive against the fact that the market term hit its bottom on the day that we had a weak unemployment report which would indicate that the fed is not going to it tighten, and we think tightening fed is going to signify a morrow bust economy, department ofs confidence, and normalization is a much better
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thing. >> it's good to have you here. thanks for coming in. >> thank you. >> coming up, under armor slapped with a downgrade today despite its outperformance this year, and first billion dollar quarter has all the good news been priced in? it is our call of the day. plus, the hospital stocks getting crushed this week. steve weiss doesn't care. he is jumping in. what does he see that others are missing? that's all straight ahead on the half. hi watson. annabelle, your birthday is tomorrow. i'm turning seven. what did you ask for? a princess. and a pony. you like things that begin with p. i like pink frosting too. will you have a cake? yeah. i was too sick to have one last year. the data your doctor shared shows you are healthy. are you a doctor? no. i help doctors identify cancer treatments. i want to be a doctor someday. i can help with that too.
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watson, i like you.
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>> under armor shares under pressure after the stock was downgraded at bb & t capital markets. this remeans me of the nike call we got earlier in the week who was making a short-term tactical call. they say here over at bb & t the price to perfection long-term story still intact. do we argue with the call? >> pick one time over the last few years where it hasn't been priced to perfection. i don't own it because of the valuation. i get what he is saying, though. the fundamentals look good. scott was talking about the hits to the margin. >> the margin hit was one of the triggers to sell, judge. the price to perfection, roll the calendar forward by two months. it won't be priced to perfect n
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perfection. they're expanding into markets they're not even in right now that are going to be dropping numbers to the bottom line that will be extraordinary. you buy this stock on aa dip like this. basically it was down another $50 today. that's back to back $5 drops. it came off of it a little this morning. it's only down three. i think you buy underarmor. >> depends who are you speaking with too. trader versus investor. long-time investor, what are you going to get out of it? are you going on get back into it? >> if you are a trader, you are absolutely right. you take the profits when they pop up through 100, and you buy it back now when it's down at 90. >> gross margins did still miss, right. the tom top line b gross margins missed. >> that's one thing that might be going for it. we're seeing stocks like these. amazon, microsoft, google stocks going higher. they have momentum and go else. they have growth.
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>> it's continued to find support along this trend. i think it will be an opportunity to buy. not an opportunity to want to sell if you have an outlook that's more than a year. >> let's do our trader blitz. three trades on three stocks. we referenced sketchers already. dock, give us more of the scoop here and what you think we should do with the stock. o a sales miss that is absolutely obliterated shares today. >> people love this one too, and occasionally they come out with a great product, somewhere. right now buckingham and others soured on them pretty dramatically. the turnover here, though, i'm looking at 17, almost 18 million shares changing hands versus three normal. that's pretty close to the wash-out. that you look leak when you goat a bottom. whether $30 is the bottom or
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not, it's a $17 drop for the stob. i think it's a better buy than it was. >> shares of pe, pandora, hammered as well. josh, what do you do with this? down 30%. guidance bad. the settlement over royalties. >> it costs more and more to be in this business, and it's just not great. >> all right. steve weiss, tenet is in focus today. the health care stocks yesterday got obliterated. >> i have doubled down twice. >> why did you do it? >> they came out and lowered
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guidance. yesterday we had community. xhint lower good nightedance. that was down 30%. then we had an emergency group lower guidance. right now you are lapping obama care. number two, people have been health where i. that's terrible for stocks. >> one up and coomber is up. 15% for the month. what's his strategy? he will join us to talk about it. another strong day for the dollar hitting the highest level in two months. why one trader says it can get an even bigger boost next week. first in business worldwide.
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all right. big week for central banks which may be why the dollar is now at a ten-week high. bertha with the futures. >> hey, scott. yeah, the dollar zooming the last couple of days with the cooing of dovish central banks, the ecb, and now the pboc.
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we have the fomc meeting next week. what is that meaning for the greenback? do you think we'll still fly higher here? >> i don't think they're going to tighten. i think they're going to still talk about tighten because they really want to. the dollar kind of stays stable. i think what really happens is we start to focus more on the ecb because it was extremely dovish, and they talk about new and exciting ways to pummel the your wroe. if it settles below 110.30, i think the euro could go back to 105. >> what does that mean for the greenback? we were close to 90 seconds here a couple of seconds ago. >> yeah, i don't think we see that moving the euro due to the fact that janet yellen is not going to do anything next week, and i don't think she's going to do anything in december.
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the dollar is going nowhere in a hurry. >> you heard it here. thanks very much, guys. have a great weekend. of course, can you get more on futures now at futures now.cnbc.com. see what some of the other traders had to say about the dollar next week. scott, back to you. >> thank you so much. coming up, he has been short some big underperformers like harley davidson and caterpillar. now a bear market ahead. brad tells us what's got him so worried coming up. as we go to break, take a look at some of the non-tech names hitting all-time highs today. more "halftime" straight ahead. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities.
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hello, know. i'm sue herrera. here's your cnbc news update for this hour. mexico has begun evacuating tourists from their hotels and the luxury resort of puerto vallarta ahead of the arrival of hurricane patty, the strongest storm recorded in the hemisphere. the region could receive up to 40% of its average rainfall in just two days. republican candidate jeb bush is cutting campaign salaries across the board and
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reducing staff in a money-saving effort. this to concentrate resources on early voting states. democratic presidential candidate hillary clinton appearing before a democratic national committee women's forum this morning just a day after being grilled on capitol hill. she was frequently interrupted by cheers and applause. she repeated her determination to fight for gun safety laws. ups pilots voting overwhelmingly to authorize a strike as contract negotiations enter their fifth year. the main sticking point? work rules specifically to avoid fatigue. other points of contention, pay, health care, and retirement benefits. just before the holiday season. that is the cnbc news update this hour. scott, back to you. >> okay. sue, thank you so much. he has been short caterpillar and harley davidson now for more than a year. both names down more than 20%. now he is getting bearish on the overall market despite this recent rally. brad is a portfolio manager at ranger alternative management and co-manager of the bear itf.
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it's good to see you. >> good seeing you. how are you doing some. >> good, thanks. there are many headlines that we could start with first, but the first is i suppose why do you see a bear market ahead even in light of this recent rally? >> so i created a newsletter a couple of years ago to start highlighting some of the things that i see in the market specifically. all year i have been bearish. i got very bullish down at the lows in september.
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>> when you are losing leadership. we saw a good taste in september. i think we'll even get more next year. >> hey, brad. it's swrosh brown. somebody who agrees with you would point to anything but the q's and the s&p. they would say, like, small cap 600. not only is it still down and nowhere near we're to date highs, but it's actually below its september highs. they would point to, let's say, russell 2,000, midcap 400. these are enormous markets of stocks that simply are not along for the ride. is that the kind of thing that you look at and say at a certain point either these get better or the big caps get worse, but you can't have it both ways forever? >> that's right. that's exactly right. the reason that i'm more bearish than not, the stocks that are coming down they're coming down
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on tremendous volume. the bounces on extremely light volume, and that's a very large concern for me. sentiment got very, very bearish as as. >> there's lots of things up there that are still very expensive in this market. >> well, let's rye this on for size. if you believe investigating is a relative game, and it is, what asset lasses can give you the best return and protect your capital?
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where are you going to go but equities if are you an average investor? you can't go to credit because you think equities are a valid credit, man. that's a different universe. >> i completely agree with you, and i don't know if you are familiar, but i used to work for the bass brothers in their trading shop, and relative value long short funds are going to do extremely well in here, and it's an asset class that's been within inside of the mutual fund now. >> you were short apple. you've since covered. why? >> we had a technical stop on that position. are you still short hog? >> we covered half the position there, and we reallocated that into some other names.
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>> you're short the carter's clothing company? >> yeah, that's right. >> i know it well. caterpillar? >> caterpillar, we are still in that stock. we have covered snf it. >> we think the environment is going to turn pretty rough. >> short intel, they had their earnings report. there was some holes in there, especially in the server market. that stock is getting dragged higher by these earnings rock stars, even though their earnings were questionable. i mean, how do you manage that? how does that play into the strategy? >> it continues to be fundamentally very weak in our mind, and we're going to -- i mean, the mandate of our fund isn't a hedge fund. we're 80% short at a minimum all the time.
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>> we weren't as heavy when the energy sector got hit? we're more technology oriented than anything else. >> brad, thanks for coming on. interesting conversation. >> any time. >> brad. the halftime desk battles it out for top trader in our portfolio challenge. both josh brown and stephanie link making moves today. they're going to break down what they're doing next. plus, trading twitter ahead of earnings next week despite a rough year. only two sells on the street right now. find out where our own experts stand. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. here at td ameritrade, they're always working.
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yup, we're constantly making thinkorswim better. like a custom screener on your desktop, that updates to all your devices. and you can share it with one click. wow. how do you find the time to do all this? easy. we combined every birthday and holiday into one celebration. (different holidays being shouted) back to work, guys! i love this times of year. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. prge! a manufacturer. well that's why i dug this out for you. it's your grandpappy's hammer and he would have wanted you to have it.
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>> a rally on the street again. the major averages breaking above a key level. we're going to bring you the sector tazz could take us even higher from here. china fueling a number of individual stocks and sectors. three smart ways to trade china's rate card and facebook topping $100 for the first time ever with 18 times revenue multiples. is the stock overvalued? should we buy it at these levels? we'll talk about that, and, of course, debate many other stocks that are hitting all-time highs in tech world. scott where i, back over to you. >> take a look at the leaderboard. get a look at bhos on top now. it's john negarian in the lead. things have been switching almost every day. josh brown in second by one-half of 1%. stephanie link behind that. >> we have people making moves. >> yesterday i sold out of red
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hat and bought lamb research, and then today i sold out of lulu and bought whirlpool. >> oh. >> i still like -- >> umpf. >> i like red hat. he still like lulu, but this is a competition that we only have two months left for, so i like the risk-reward for both lamb and whirlpool to the end of the we're. let me do the ease where i one first. that's lamb. >> margins seeing improvement. what changed it for me was the kla. i think the game changer, they'll be able to address 42% of the wafer fab equipment market with this acquisition. expand their product set and give them market share, and don't forget, these guys bought novellis, and it was a home run. these guys know how to do m&a. i like that story. whirlpool is harder. clearly. it's down a lot today after initially popping on the quarter. this is why i like it. i like it because there's a seasonal trade in housing for october through december. that's typically the strong
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time. the stock is down 25% on concerns on brazil and currency exposure. i think that's in the stock price. i think it's ignoring the fact that north america is turning, especially on margins as well as in europe. the guidance of the low end of the good nightedance range, expectations are extremely low. >> i still own it, and i still like for the long-term. i don't know if i see ae catalyst here in the near term. by the way, vf corp. really spooking the market today in terms of the higher inventory levels in general. we know that lulu had issue with their inventories in their quarter. i think they're going to move through it. i think the ath-leisure market is where you want to be. in 12 months i'll be happy i own it. between now and the enof the year i'm not sure you have a catalyst. >> steph, thank you. >> thank you.
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>> have a great weekend. see you next week. >> you too. bye-bye. >> josh brown, i think literally minutes before or during the first part of the show -- >> seconds before. what did you do? >> i came to get down. we have two months left. i can't be sitting with, like, two, three positions in cash. finally, the market gave me some opportunities. a couple of names popped up on my screen that are in break-out mode. let's talk about adobe first. this is a misunderstood stock right now, but the street is starting to figure it out. they had a "disappointing" quarter the other day. it pulled back. then it came right back. i think the reason why is because people recognize short-term currency head winds are not really a big deal, and they're making this transition that other great software companies have made away from selling the one-time piece of software and going more towards that ongoing licensing revenue. it's an adjustment right now, but oracle did it. microsoft did it. everyone has done it. it's really smart. that's why this stock is within pennies of record high. the other one is dr. pepper
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snapple. this one crushed it on earnings. i think they'll continue to do that. at some point buffett or someone else, they're just going to buy it out. this is another name that's breaking out. all-time highs. business is on fire. i like the two names going into the end of the we're. >> remember you can follow all the action at cnbc.com/pro. we have some sad news to report from staples. let's head to sue herrera at the news desk. hi, sue. >> hi, scott. we're going to report that the founder and former ceo of staples has died of gastric cancer after a long fight. he was 66 years old. he was a frequent guest here on cnbc. staples has given cnbc this statement. "tom was a a activisionary who invented the super store and his entrepreneurial spirit and legacy will live on through the many people he inspired." tom stemberg dead at the age of
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66 from gastric cancer. scott, back to you. >> sad news. next up on "the half" we'll be joined by this hedge fund up and coomber adam we eiden. he will tell us how he is averaging returns of 29% since that fund's inception. back after this. eligible for medicare? that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything. only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, they could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. call today to request a free decision guide. with these types of plans, you'll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients... plus, there are no networks, and virtually no referrals needed. join the millions who have already enrolled in the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp...
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>> welcome back. the news recently that fortress investment group was closing its macro fund and saying good-bye to star manager mike novogratz
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was a reminder how tough the environment has been for hedge funds over the past few months. what's it like to be an up and coomber in the industry? adam widen is the founder of adw capital. it's a fund he started in 2011. since then he has netted adw capital. welcome. it's good to see you. thank you for coming on. >> thank you. >> started with 2 mil and you have $50 million under management now. >> almost. >> what would you say your investment philosophy is? >> i think our investment philosophy is to invest in really great managers and companies that are misunderstood that no one has heard of. we're looking for one to two investments a year. >> plus you run a really small book. >> very concentrated. about six to seven names right now. we'll go up to ten but very concentrated. best names. >> what is one of the best names? >> it's very timely that you ask that. our biggest position is fiat chrysler. we love fiat chrysler.
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it's run by sergio marchionne who is one of the best operators in the business. unbelievable capital allocators. and they've just announced they're ipo 'ing ferrari. fiat's $30 billion enterprise value. you're getting fiat for $15 billion and we think they'll do $15 billion of ebitda so it's about one times. gm trades four times if you include the pension. >> how many total stocks do you have in the portfolio right now? >> about seven. >> about seven. josh? >> so you could blow a hole in your portfolio with one really bad name and maybe it has nothing to do with your research, a company is making things up, for example, and it comes to light. what's your sell discipline on such a concentrated portfolio? how do you know when you're wrong? how quickly do you react or do you just say i was right in the beginning and i'm going to stick
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through it? >> i think the way we think about our margin of safety is we don't invest in companies that have leverage, we don't invest in biotech, energy. we try to stay away from psych lickcle companies. we don't invest in technology, in things that change kind of off the cuff so to speak. we dodged a lot of land mines this year doing that. fiat chrysler one times ebitda, it's hard to lose. >> your risk management is stock selection then. >> yes. >> but being a hedge fund, they're short, right? >> sure. >> you're 100% net long. >> today. we think the market is cheap. 15 times earnings without banks and financials and we think it's a good environment for stock pickers. >> but you're not playing the market. you're playing stocks. >> right. >> as we see today, the divergen divergence, there are so many stocks down, there is always something to do on the short side. gee think abo >> we think about it on a return on time. if we can put 15% of our capital in something that's going to triple wk only put 2% or 3% in
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something that can go down max 100%. people are getting taken out in the short side. we think it's not a good return on our side. not to say we won't do it but not a good return on our time at this moment. >> your bottoms up investor yet we have seen a lot of bottoms up guys in the same positions where there's been a lot of pain felt. is that something that factors into the selection process? >> absolutely. we try and stay away from the hedge fund hotels. we try to invest in companies you have never heard of or misunderstood, underresearched. fiat chrysler, this is a company that bass formed between a merger of fiat and chrysler. two kind of consecutive mergers. lists on the new york stock exchange in august and now it's the fer irari ipo. it's an orphan stock, but at $20 billion market cap, it's very much an orphan stock. >> you have to have really well educated clients to understand how far away you're going to deviate, not just from benchmarks, but from other of your peers and that's where the
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returns obviously come from if you're right, but you have to have that conversation with lps probably often in a volatile market, right? >> absolutely. we tell our investors in any given quarter or month we could be down substantially but we think our margin of safety is our stock selection and picking good companies run by good managers. we look at volatility as our friend and we focus on being right. >> your father is the senior senator from the state of oregon. >> sure. >> hedge funds aren't the most popular profession in d.c. these days. how does it go over? >> i think it goes over quite nice. he's pretty pro-capitalism, pro-investment, and, look, we have different professions but, you know, we both enjoy what we're doing. passionate about it. >> thanks for coming. great to meet you. welcome to the network. we'll continue to follow your story. >> thank you for having me. >> adam wyden. a ton of companies on for earns
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this was the busiest week of earnings season thus far, continues right into next week and gets arguably even more interesting. steve weiss, what's on your mind when you look at that calendar there? >> there's a lot there. we're going to have energy companies towards the end of the week, very important to hear what they're saying in terms of production, in terms of their cost of production, but before that i want to see baidu and alibaba. i own j.d. i >> twitter could be interesting. jack on the all likely for the first time. >> i almost think whatever numbers they report are beside the fact because this is going to be like a clean slate kind of scenario where they talk about the future, not the things that went on in the past under previous management, and i
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think, you know, provided they don't totally have a bomb anywhere in their users numbers, stock should be okay. i'm much more nervous, i also own baba. definitely tensing up. but i'm doing my keigels and we'll get through it. >> the one on everybody's mind for obvious reasons is apple. given the fact of its underperformance on a day we're sitting here glowing about some of these big technology stocks whether it's microsoft or alphabet, the former google, or amazon or facebook topping $100, sort of apple has been recently the forgotten story, doc. sentiment has changed. they better get it right. >> they better, and there's been a lot of, of course, we just had a gentleman on who covered a short in apple because it made that dramatic turn. and it's running up towards $120 right now. i don't think you want to be short it into the numbers, but i'll be out of it today, maybe
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back in next week. >> one thing we haven't mentioned a european banks. deutsche bank reporting and giving us new strategy and barclay's. financials i'm still negative. if they run a little bit, it will go the other way. >> stop talking just in time because "power" starts now. >> thank god. thank you very much. welcome, everybody, to "power lunch." so glad you could with be us on friday along with mandy drury. i'm tyler mathisen. an interest rate cut by china fueling today's rally. the major averages breaking above some key levels. are we headed higher from here? miners are on the move after china's move, which is fueling a number of stocks and sectors this hour. three smart ways to trade china's rate cut. and look at this map. right there. look at the red. it is turning into the strongest storm ever measured. a category 5

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