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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  October 23, 2015 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT

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if you talk to folks that work at the large banks, capital markets, they can't leave because they are waiting for the stock to vest for a number of years. so it does increase some loyalty and unhappiness quotients. >> we'll leave it on that positive note. but we'll watch this closely. guys thank you for joining me. evan and kelly. have a great weekend. that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins with simon hobbs right now. >> welcome back to "fast money." we start right now. live from the nasdaq markets, overlooking new york's time square, i'm simon in for melissa lee. our trader at the desk, tim seymour, steve grasso, dan nathan and guy adami. tonight on "fast," stocks have recovered, believe it or not, all of the august losses. but something needs to happen before they can make new highs. we'll tell you what that something is. plus amazon, google and microsoft, all beating the street. could apple be next? a top analyst explains what that
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stock needs to do in order to join the tech party. and later, yahoo is teaming up with the nfl for an unprecedented experiment this weekend. and the sports world and your portfolio may never be the same. we'll explain. but first, stocks have retraced all of the august losses and now investors are faced with a key question. what matters more? next week's earnings or next week's fed meeting? guy adami, we'll start with you. >> simon, great to have you. i think next week earnings matter more. because the fed is a lot to do about nothing. timmy can back me up on this, august 11, you got the first china deval and things unraveled from there. here we are two t-vals later and flee in total and the markets retrace the entire level. all of that was based on draggy's comments yesterday and the rhetoric out of china. that said, zahn, google,
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fantastic. >> i agree with that. simon, welcome. >> thank you. >> and i agree the deval is the moment china said market is out of control and we are worried about chooip and they've been showing this hand for a long time. but the fed next week for me is everything. we may not get a fed move but the rhetoric and putting the fed back in play, cl at september, which said global markets are a mess and we are worried about china policy and what has happened since then. everything has gone straight up. and volatility has gone straight dead, why should the fed -- >> they didn't go straight up. on the 17th we had a 7.5% selloff on the fed day to september 29th. so on the dovish comment your a beyond the worry about global growth and volatility, we sold off. and that is why i disagree with guy and i think the fed is important. i don't think it matters what s&p 500 numbers are next week. after today, they blew them out,
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the handful of names, they are so concentrated. >> but richard fisher said the economy is slowing. there is no way they are going to raise rates. >> and that is why the market is rallying so substantially the way it is now. so if you have the ecb and china and the fed all on the same page, the only thing that could end this rally is if the fed decided to do one of those sneak attacks and do something in december, but that would kill the rally in my opinion. >> or even if there is a perception. so again, let's talk about where markets are priced and positioned and that is what this week is all about. you have two days on the back of ecb and china. you have s&p which is oversold and when you look at -- or over bought. we haven't about this overbought since november of 2014. this market has to fade next week. anything out of the fed that appears like we could still be in play, this market has written off the fed and you cannot do that. >> in broad terms, three quarters of companies have beat
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their earnings expectations. >> eps. >> those expectations have been brought down. >> but that should still be positive for the market. >> eps beats and revenue beats are two entirely two different things. and my pushback would be tib -- continuing to see growth between revenue and growth. ibm is lousy and it is not just ibm. and like american expressi and e saw yum a few weeks ago. >> and you mentioned yum, think about the dollar since we've had the ecb comments. the dollar is screaming. so we've had disregard of dollar strength. we know it was down in the last few months. proctor and gamble was up 3% today. people are looking past the known headwinds. if the dollar starts to scream, this will be a problem in q4. >> the dollar is screaming. if you look at where the s&p is
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making money it is where the dollar doesn't have implications or companies changing their business where it is reaffirmed on the earnings cycle, amazon, google, all are growing in the next ten years it doesn't mean that the top line has been that extraordinary and that is a tell. this reminds me of second quarter earnings where we had the same two or three companies blowing it out or changing the business model or reaffirming margins, not on the top line. i think it is a set up and this market is over. >> given the s&p is positive, steve, run us through the numbers. >> so tim just talked about why we should fade this market and fade at these levels. upper end of the trading range, so let's take a peak at what these levels are. this is the recent high right here, 2134. your recent low. 1867 or thereabouts. here was the test of it. these bounce levels, what you want to do is focus on the 50% and the 618 retracement. that is these levels right here.
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once you breach and cross over the 2032 level, you need to be covering shorts. that is the prudent thing to do. so the next thing after that is this level. on the retracement. so that is what the market did. we rallied through the retracement levels and that is what you are supposed to see here, maybe regather your thought process. but once we break through the 2032 level it is off to the races to the 2071 level. here is what you do on a day like monday. you have to look at 2060. a lot of congestion in the charts right there. what is that? that is flat on the year date level and also the 50-week moving average, also your 200-day moving average. that is what we call congestion in the charts. that is your substantive support. this is your soft and this is your hard support, 2060. if we break down there, we head to 2032. this is where you resort the market but not until then. you can stay long this market on
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this move down to 2032 in the s&p. >> so just to be clear here, steve, what you're saying is we've broken through a lot of resistance. >> we've broken through resistance which becomes support but it is only fragile support up here. so 2071, 2060 and the hard report is the 2060 tracem and if we break through that level we're going down probably sub 2,000. >> and markets tend to exhaust themselves on good news. can you take the china news to be that headline. tim mentions volatility, down toward levels where the last year or so has been an opportunity to buy the vix and look at the market selloff. and i'll point to the bond market. even though it sold off today, it has been resilient through the upside. yield still through 2.1%. >> i want to come to you, dan. but i'm astounded by the
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bearishness around the desk. >> i think we're trying to be measured. >> hold on. hold on. so simon, here is the deal. everybody is so excited, all of the market cheerleaders, they've proclaimed they've won. >> the cheerleader. >> okay. here is the deal. the market is flat for all intents and purpose. we've raled 11% but nothing changed that started the volatility in the summer. that is what you have to think about it. and we have this concentration of stocks, we had a trillion dollars worth of tech market cap, and three stocks that dominate what they do and they blew it out. so the point is we have a lot of lifting. >> i understand. but what happens if the fed says we're not raising rates and i give you the gift of guidance. >> what are you celebrating, simon. at this point you're celebrating the fact that the global economy is so weak that the fed can't raise rates. >> be with you round it on the ecb and the bank of china. >> but we have the game still on and what dan is saying, hey,
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that is not good news, it means ultimately it is not sustainable. my view is probably most constructive simon on this desk of where we see the global economy and this market is overbought in the short run. >> let's take a break. up next, while everyone expects a blowout quarter from apple, one area we are seeing key declines. what it is and where shareholders should be concerned. and big earnings and big moves. from twitter to exxon, some of the biggest names are set to report and there is one name our traders think will have a blow-out quarter. they'll reveal that. and later yahoo teaming with the nfl to stream live this sunday. julia boorstin will break down the numbers, the winners and the losers and the ad rate. much more "fast" after this. let's talk asset allocation. sure. you seem knowledgeable, professional. would you trust me as your financial advisor? i would.
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three huge beats from tech titans. alp alphabet, amazon and microsoft, and setting the stage for apple. senior tech analyst and he covers apple, colin, it is great
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to see you again. we're going to play a game and ask you to grade on a scale of 1-5, apples for each of the key groups of the products and what you are expecting next week. so let's start with the iphone. out of five apples, what are you expecting? >> 51 million units, we give that five apples because apple is the iphone company, it is the high margin product. >> okay. what about the ipad. how much apples would you give that. >> 12 million units we'll give that one apple. this is a product that will shift to declining number of units. it is a sore area for apple. >> okay. i notice that you just changing the subject slightly. on the best buy survey of things people would most like tor christmas, the ipad came out top. are you surprised? >> certainly, it is a high ticket item for the december quarter. but you have to be concerned about the trends that you are seeing in ipad sales, particularly if you see the
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iphone market start to exhibit the elongation characteristics. >> so if you give five apples on the phone when it reports, i'm doing by me doi doing my best, when it reports, does that mean they have beaten expectations and wille stock rally? >> that would be good news. but the key number for apple is the forward guidance for the december quarter. because that is where the compares become to difficult. if there is any hint that the iphone cycle is starting to slow, then apple is going to become a source of cash and it will pull the stock lower. that is that december quarter hurd hurdle that people have concerned on. >> and people remember pacman more than those that don't. but how many apples do you give for mac computers. >> we've going to -- we're going to give three apples. right in the middle. >> perfect. let's trade it.
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>> i'll tell you what, i agree with colin. it will be about the guidance for the fourth quarter. when you look at the company, i think the expectations have moderated. think china is still the most important part of the business. as much as people lament they are part of the metrics and we don't know, that is good news here. owning apple at this point, it is similar to the market. it had a huge rally back. and i would wait for a pullback and i don't think you have to own it into numbers. >> colin, it is nice to see you. thank you for being such a good sport. >> thank you. >> remember, an apple a day. and sticking with earnings, a slew of big names hitting the tape this week from social media to restaurants. a perfect time perhaps to play a little take your position ahead of those big reports. >> you can't control yourself. what is in your coffee tonight. >> what is this? >> first up, starbucks, out with earnings next thursday after the bell. tim, are you a buyer? >> i'm a buyer and i'm a owner and i think can you own the stock in earnings.
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and they are earning across the major stories and they are executing around the world even with dollar headwinds. they have multichannels in terms of multi coffees and tea and the k cups and they are doing in t in -- doing it in a way. >> and you can order it before you arrive. and go pro out with earnings after the bell. the stock is now down more than 54% in the past three months. so it is basically half. dan. >> this is a make or break quarter for this company right now. and it is not that the product is not going to be around for a while. it is just whether you think that this stock is investable gifting the existing business plan they have. i think investors over the last few months have said there isn't any any holiday device. they introduced the little camera before. but some of the feedback is there is just not a huge demand
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for this product. so if there is no seasonality in the holiday period, people aren't running out and getting these. if people give weird guidance, the stock is going back to the ipo price of 24 and probably lower here and that is when you take a shot. it is not an expensive shot. there is a time when all of us on the desk was saying it is trading at 10 times the sales so it is trading at two times the sales. so back in the mid-20s, that is where you talk a shot. >> let's talk about twitter, which is out with third quarter results tuesday after the bell. steve grasso, does it concern you when you see jack dorsey giving away a third of his share hold to keep people. >> no, there are other things that concern me about twitter. they preannounced. and we are going to hear jack dorsey talk about his guidance. that is the key metric. so we have to hear what he says about the stack and where he will change it and what he will implement. there is a couple of things. it should be instagram and you tube. there are a couple of quick
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fixes he can do. let's see if he has the ability to do that. you should just do drop down tabs and only see tweets that are pictures or videos. you don't have to extol through to see what you -- scroll through to see what you posted. there are quick fixes he can do but they preannounced and now it is just a wait and see. >> are those ideas or people talk about. are those your ideas. >> those are my ideas. >> you have to watch the show. this is the only show on tv that tells people what to do with stocks, that matters. >> straight ahead -- and let's finally talk about exxon. >> we're going to break, baby. we're running out of time. >> how would you like -- how would you like to make money if apple goes up down or lower and all on earnings. we'll tell but a unique strategy that allows you to do just that. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc. first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here is what else is coming up on "fast" this
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friday. >> the nfl teaming up for the first ever live stream of an nfl game this sunday. but could yahoo be the one who gets sacked? >> oh, my god, the quarterback is toast. >> julia boorstin with a special report. >> plus missed the rally in microsoft. well there is another 90s tech darling that is showing signs it may be on the verge of a serious breakout as well and we'll tell you what that is later in the hour.
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and welcome back to "fast money." this weekend will mark a huge milestone for the nfl and yahoo, because the tech giant is going to stream the game between the buffalo bills and the jacksonville jaguars. julia boorstin is in l.a. with the details. >> hi, simon. this is the first time an nfl game has been live streamed for free as the primary means of distribution. so the latest in a slew of nfl deals with snap chat, twitter, you tube and plus the nfl is offering more live games on nfl mobile from verizon and more content on the app nfl now. and the most of the nfl rights are tied up through 2020 and 2021. the league is doing to do more digital deals.
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>> we're in reach business. we're in the aggregation of audiences business and there is a tremendous amount of audience going on in the internet and devices and we are focused on capturing that. >> it is not just the nfl. all of the leagues will be watching the sunday's game closely to see if yahoo earns back the investment. reportedly spend $20 million and if yahoo reaches the promise of getting over 3.5 million viewers to advertisers. they did sell out of the ad spots but brought down the price tag to $200,000 to $100,000 over the course of the negotiations. today the nba announced it is making games easier to watch online and on devices. the nba will allow fans to directly access live games through social media. posting content from games on facebook, twitter and instagram, a click then takes fans to nba league pass within the nba app where you can purchase
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individual games for $7 each. now the nba is the first league to offer nearly 1,000 games out of market, of course, a la carte, on mobile devices. tv is for all of the leagues, still the biggest advertise market by far and the biggest destination for sports but all of the different leagues, whether it is the nba or the nfl, are trying to explore all of the other options out there. simon. >> and well they might, julia. but the achilles heel is what rates they can get from it. and as you said in your report, yahoo has slashed the price of the advertising because it wasn't selling as it thought, in half. so where does that leave it us? >> we see with television advertising, cbs or go out or whoever is doing the super bowl, go out to advertises and ask a high price and there is fluctuation and negotiation. i think people are waiting to see what kind of eyeball this is game gets. and it is important to remember, that with selling advertising online, it is a different formula than selling for tv with
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online people usually bye ads -- buy ads in a cost per volume views per metric. if they don't get the viewers on sunday, yahoo will give them advertising elsewhere across the platform. >> julia boorstin joins us from la. steve, i'm still skeptical. they have halved the price and they still don't know how many eyeballs they will get. >> they are testing the market. because the licensing deals will be done in the next couple of years and they want to renegotiate a lot of deals. look for it to impact cbs that has the thursday night football and the super bowl. so those type of companies are the ones that are going to get hurt. either they have to pay up for licenses or lose out to the network -- or the online stuff. >> jags are not a big draw. we're going to get some hate mail from jacksonville but wrong game to be streaming. >> ahead of yahoo's kickoff, we wanted the hail mary plays. a long shot bet, the traders are
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ready to make. so let's go around the horn. starting with you, tim. >> brazil, ewz, they need a hail mary. big politics and real rates are positive in bralsz, look at this long isla long-term. >> grasso. >> this is challenged, competition from intel which used to be a complaint and now a competitor, micron. >> and shake shack is back to a level where i bought it in february and when they sold it and i think it is back. i think you own it using a 40 stop. they report in a couple of weeks. >> guy. >> letter x, levered. if the steel prices stabilize, this could go to 13.5. it was said on "options action" numerous times. >> before we get to "options action." let's go around the horn with you tim. >> starbucks, doing that on all cylind cylinders. >> steve grasso. >> i'm long on aim.
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along as it stays aabout 118. >> paypal. i like the e payment segment. this is one i'm taking a look at. >> great to have you simon. >> it is great. >> you can stay for the next one if you like, "options action.." >> thc. that is it. go. >> that does it for here on "fast money." but catch more "fast money" with a decent anchor monday at 5:00 eastern. "options action" begins with me again right after this break. when you're not confident your company's data is secure, the possibility of a breach can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at at&t we monitor our network traffic so we can see things others can't. mitigating risks across your business. leaving you free to focus on what matters most.
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yes, the name is hobbs. simon hobbs and yes i'm hosting "options action" tonight. the spector. the guys are getting ready for the big show. in the meantime, this is what is coming up tonight on cnbc. >> cheesy. but that is what microsoft shares did this week. but if you missed the move, we have another stock that could soon follow in its footsteps. we'll explain. plus, how would you like to make money if apple goes up, down or nowhere at all on earnings? >> is that possible? >> it is not only possible, but


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