tv Fast Money CNBC November 2, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
get much farther. >> kayla and mike, thank you for joining us. that does it for "closing bell" today. "fast money" is coming up. what is up. >> the face-off with dennis gartman. nat gas versus oil. china versus the spd, gold versus the dollar and tough choices but he will choice. >> and i want to hear on the oil versus the natural gas. over to you guys. >> "fast money" is live from time square. your melissa lee. your traders can tim, pete, david and guy adami. tonight on fast, missed the rally. one top technician has stocked near 52 week lows that could bust out. the names might surprise you. and beam me up scottie or that is what cbs stock is saying after announcing a reboot of star trek that could give netflix a run for its money. and chipolte may be closing stores amidst of a p.r. nightmare but other fast food stocks are soaring. whether they could bring sizzling profits to your
portfolio. and oil following 1%. and big oil stocks hit multi month highs. exxon up 3% and chevron surging 5%. is big oil the best bet. what does it mean for this rally. guy adami, i go to you. you say it was expensive. more expensive. >> i don't think crude -- i think crude is still sort of not basing here, i think it is ready to make another leg. crude the commodities, can't get out of the way to buy the low. that is the kmomiddy. in terms of big oil. i thought exxon and chevron, i thought you would see a selloff and you didn't. at 21 times forward earnings, i think they are expensive in this environment. but the refiners, we have been steadfast on. and today tesoro making an all-time high and valero, a high, and to me that is still the place to be. >> do you feel the same way about the integrated? too expensive don't touch them? >> i do agree.
i agree with the refiner call. i see oil or crude going lower over the long-term. no question. where would i put my money right now. you have to be careful. i don't look at buying the cheap beaten down names. i'm looking at the bigger cap names. >> i don't know where you are saying it is going lower. unless the dollar will spike well through 100, let's not have that conversation. the numbers on friday shows five sequential months where the production is coming off. you have the perfect storm in terms of opec. i think oil has bottomed. so exxon and cvx, exxon has more to give back in terms of capex and i think they will. that is the toughest of the big integrated names to own. cvx, for sure, look abroad. because the lower currency in the euro looks better. and apache and anadarko and eog are so far ahead that the
balance sheets can hang in there at the price and not in the price in terms of the stock. >> and some would argue that the integrated names are pricing in a bottom in oil and that is what has been the foundation of the run of late. >> maybe that is it. i don't know exactly. because i'm not here to say i know the direction of oil right now. but in terms of the options world, we've seen options flowing into exxon and chevron and conico phillips. all short-term, but focusing on november, maybe out to december. but not any further than that. so these aren't long-term commitments. but very large trades where folks are putting in all kinds -- huge money. we're talking buying 20,000 options that might cost $2. we're talking about huge commitment of capital, getting and looking for the upside and taking that off as we start to see the moves. >> could this be a push higher to the year end. last month it was one of the top performing sectors in the s&p 500 in what had a been the best
month in four years. >> people want to love energy. they want to get back in. they are underinvested and waiting for the moment to jump in and buy the stocks at cheap valuations but that is not time. we are still far off from any bottom in the commodity. we talk about the mini cycles, maybe at the top end we get at 50 and people hedge out. $40 at the low end or high 30s, but no chance a run to $60 in oil any time soon. >> so here is a would you rather. >> i love this. on a monday afternoon. dark by the way. >> it is dark outside. because of the time change. any way, integrated, with pretty fat dividends or the refiners with no dividend? >> refiners. >> really? >> yeah. but i've been a refiner person for a while. exxon went from 68 to 82 in a month and a half. and to pete's point, there is still options activity and upside.
in terms of valuation and who is in the sweet spot in the cycle, i think refiners. >> but it wasn't from 68 to 111 in the same amount of time. so you are in a difficult time. and crack spreads are rallying. and that will put pressure on these guys. >> what is your time frame? >> to year end? >> i'm much more with the refiners rate until the year end. >> love the game. would you rather on a monday. >> let's play. in case you missed the rally. relax, the next guest said there are three stocks near 52 week lows that are set to break it out. ross is breaking it down at the smart board. hey, rich. >> hey, melissa, thanks for having me here. when you see the average high on the nds and the s&p back through 2100 the best month since october of 2011 and you worried about chasing stocks and buying them on a break out. i'm going to give you three stocks that have run but run in the other direction. the first stock that we're looking at is party city. this is a recent ipo.
you can see back over the summer, up around $22. the stock is down 30%. but what we love about this stock, with earnings coming up, is that basically you've just had the super bowl for party city. we're talking about halloween. these guys are selling all of the costumes and the chosh keys and down at an all-time low. this could trip and get back above the 50 bay moving average. the electronic pen is out of ink. but you see the party city ahead of earnings. and now fire eye. a high flier. but cyber security is not going anywhere. but here we are. the stock lost half of its value since this year. and you can see the critical support. one two, three times triple in fire eye. this is an opportunity to buy a tech stock in a hot sector on the cheap. and this is the big finish. the one i like the best of the three. this is nordstrom. this is the blue chip of the blue chip. now we know it hasn't been a
good year for apparel and the stock reflects that. this is the weekly chart. you are touching the 200-week moving average for the first time since 2010. stocks down 24%. sitting on key support from the prior resistance here. i think this is where you buy the stock. they are in vesting for the long-term. they are doing everything right. but the stock is taking the brunt of that in the short-term. and nordstrom on the pullback to a level it hasn't touched in five years, that is where you want to be a buyer. so those are three names to buy on the cheap in a market with a big move. >> doesn't miss a beat even without the ink in the pen. rich, thank you. >> where do you go first? >> nordstrom. i love nordstrom. i don't understand why this stock has failed as much as it has and the 52 week low. right now, they are in the discount world with the rack. and online doing extremely well there and a company meanwhile, as rich points out, trades toward 52 week lows. based on what they look like fundamentally, this is the best
buy of the three. >> i agree with that. but fire eye, if you look at the sector andle valuation, it was about the -- about the expectation and the growth promise and how much cash can they prove. they've slowed down the burn. there is other places to invest. prevention is the big thin going on. and i think they have lost some mojo. you don't have to buy this tomorrow because it is cheap. this is the one thing to remember. a lot of the stocks have underperformed for a reason. this stock still has a lot of prove-me and a high multiple but stake that with -- take that with caution. >> so that is the one you would take. >> if nordstrom is off the list. >> no, you can jump on it. >> i think you could jump on nordstrom. all of the key points, you hit them. there is a passive inventory issue in this space. you're going to see inventories get the -- they are bloated and they will stay bloated. there is no triggers until q1 of next year.
in my opinion is a short-term trade. i would buy it here as a trade on sentiment in the space. any earnings that come out well in this group, you'll see the entire space rip it. would be a 5% liftoff. >> nobody was a take of party city. >> as much as i like a good red solo cup. >> and tchotchkes, mr. ross with no ink, i'm going with the fire eye. i get nordstrom and these guys might be spot on. but november 4th, i believe fire eye reports and after the 52 week low, i like the price action. i think that will get you done, sister. coming up next, instagram rolling out a new feature taking aim at twitter and snap chat. and could facebook shares soar even higher. and chipolte may shut down stores over e-coli break out. but several other stocks are in rally mode and we'll tell you how you could profit. and later a strong day on apple for the first weekend of sales for the apple tv. how well the new device scored
with consumers and what it could mean for the stock. all of that and much more ahead on "fast money." my language skills, i've read all of your lyrics. you've read all of my lyrics? i can read 800 million pages per second. that's fast. my analysis shows your major themes are that time passes. and love fades. that sounds about right. i have never known love. maybe we should write a song together. i can sing. you can sing? do be bop. be bop do. do be do be do. do do do be do.
hovering near the session lows. seema mody is back at headquarters. >> down now 8.5% on heavy volume. the company announcing that a flood of new shares will hit the market. a secondary offering of 21 million shares it. also announced the early release of lock-up restrictions on 10% of the outstanding shares. on a separate note, the fitness device maker did deliver a blockbuster earnings report due to strong international sales. revenue tripled, selling 4.8 million devices in the third quarter. melissa. >> thank you. david seaberg, what do you do with the stock at all. >> i don't like fitbit at all. i'm a seller here. i think it is overvalued. they blew out the revenue number. it is fantastic voers us revenue expectations. they need to sell 20 million units to come close to what the street has. 28 million units is a tremendous amount. apple will roll out a watch and once that occurs fitbit is over
and out. there is no question in my mind. >> is it lights out forfeit bit? do you agree. >> i don't foe if i agree -- know if i agree. this is a short-term stock. and when you look forward into the deeper part of 2016, can they produce. the numbers this go-around were phenomenal. i think the stock reflected that. the secondaries were announced and the lockup and the rest of it, that is what is putting the pressure on stock right now. >> according to thompson, 41% of shares outstanding are short. >> you can see the way it raled up from 32 to 42. the growth story is there but you can't justify 175 times earnings and after the stock moves 30%, no. >> the ceo will join "squawk box" tomorrow at 9:30 a.m. eastern time tomorrow. facebook owned instagram taking a page out of snap chat and kicking off top trades. launching the cure aid content for viewers. a special feed over the weekend for people to see halloween
based content from friends and other like the snap chat live story and the moments features a new way to feature big moments and events. seaberg. >> i think it is amazing. we love facebook -- or i love facebook for a long period of time. i think this is a phenomenal ad for them, they are going after the jugular of twitter. it is amazing it is a slap in the face to twitter after they announce moments, facebook comes out with this. and we debated on show, should facebook buy twitter and the comment we came back with was absolutely not because they can create a product themselves. and that is what they've done. this is a bolt on to the platform and allows them to continue to gain mass. so i like it. i think it will work long-term. >> gee, what do you think. >> i'm a fan about facebook. the only thing that worries me is the huge jump off the google numbers and then the subsequent selloff. it recaptured everything but
that concerns me, the amount of speed in which the stock rallied but i like the name overall. >> did you buy twitter recently. >>? -- i did. and that is why you own it. i think going into the facebook numbers, i think the bar and the comps are high. but twitter is a stock i stay long. this is an investment. it is a company, i believe they have a long way to go on product side. i don't think moments is the answer. i think the management change is something i can slowly get behind. >> are you making a funny face at me. >> if i look at these two stocks right now, you can't compare them. >> who is comparing them. >> well if you are going to buy one or the other you are comparing. so i would buy facebook before i buy twitter. >> it is not a relative buy trade. >> but the notion is twitter is a long-term investment. >> right. >> i was asked whether i owned the stock. and i said i own it because i think it is a long-term investment. it is a distant fourth in the space in social media.
>> if they are monetizing at a face. >> can i sum it up for you quickly. if you think about instagram, instagram is gaining more momentum in a two-week time frame as far as users than twitter is gaining all quarter. >> right. >> sow think about the growth -- >> people are excited about instagram and it is in the price. and i have nothing bad to say about facebook. it is a name you have to probably own in the space. but you can't tell me it is not in the price. >> and agree it has been up until the quarter. no doubt about that. >> cbs popping after a new star trek series will alive on the on-demand platform. this is the new series for the streaming service which many view as a potential competitor to netflix. and as any star trek series fan knows they will celebrate the 50th anniversary next year. and by the way, that is news to me. and so tim -- >> people are going klingon for
me on a moment there. >> you were picking one or the other. >> back to cbs. >> going boldly where they haven't been before in terms of the all-access streaming, this is what clearly people want to see from the network. the second quarter, debacle, talking about earnings, quarter over quarter, the worst news is the price of the stock. it is up 20%, 25% off the lows. but the ad content into the holiday season looks good. the expectations that they have are much lower. i think ultimately it is a case where the 2016 outlook is what we need to hear from them and let's wait and hear. >> guy. >> hello. >> hello. >> i know it comes as no great surprise, i'm not a trek person. >> but your ears look a little bit like -- >> no, that is -- >> i'm trying to talk about people. >> you call me a klingon and now he called you -- >> one of my first girlfriend's mothers said to me, oh, my god, look at your ears. >> you have a little spock to,
bro. just saying. >> she said i should get them pinned or something. i didn't know what she was talking about. >> uncanny. >> cbs has had troubled for a year and a half sore so. made an all-time high early 2014. if you want to be in the space and credit to steve grasso, down to 98 and it has rallied great since. i can't believe they are going two lousy quarters in a row. >> surn your face to -- turn your face so people can see the ears. >> which way. >> into the camera. >> because it is very -- it is very pointy. i've not noticed it in the eight years i've known guy but it is startlingly pointy. as you are talking. any way. okay. >> still ahead -- >> i don't know what you are doing. >> tough day for chipolte as the company has an e-coli outbreak but could it mean good news for other fast food competitors. i'm melissa lee and you're watching "fast money" on cnbc,
first in business worldwide. here is what else is coming up on the show. >> a bombshell has some wobdyerred if the worst is over for valeant. >> i would love to know who told you that. i hope not my ex-wife's attorney. >> no it wasn't her. but we'll tell you what has traders betting on biotech. plus don't look now but apple shares are on a tear. and it is not just the iphone that has traders excited. we'll explain when "fast money" returns. at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like ordering wine equals pretending to know wine. pinot noir, which means peanut of the night.
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as for my trading, why it is not relevant, the focus of the stories should be on valeant, okay. whether or not i made one dollar, a thousand dollars, a million dollars, regardless of what it was, it has nothing to do with is the information i putting out valid and i'm standing by it today and i think you've seen many government organizations and the pbms and bankers now saying left might have something here. >> now the citron research andrew left on the halftime report trying to direct attention from himself back on to the company. he has compared it to enron. where did valeant go from here.
meg tirrell is the cnbc tech reporter. today we got wall street guys coming out, saying step away from the stock. >> we did. it is a continuation of what we've been seeing. interestingly, citron put out the tweet on friday saying the next report is dirtier than anything we've seen before and the stock took a hit. an on sunday in an interview with the "wall street journal," it dials it back and it comes out today and it said it is the last wordond valeant and they are done and passed information on to media with bigger legal teams and say our work here is done. so citron saying it is moving on but it is clearly the fallout -- the fallout isn't over for valeant. you are seeing goldman sachs downgrading the stock today to neutral. to saying questions remain about the stock. they do have several things looming over them. the fact that they are saying they won't raise drug prices as much and there is scrutiny of that. they have multiple subpoenas
from the government into the drug prices and the patient access program. and philli dor is the specialty pharmacy, they expected it to rally after the cut of the ties, so people are concerned here. and the fact that some have cut their ties with philly door and. finally goldman sachs highlighted the pace of m&a doing deals and there is question can they keep that up with the stock depressed and everything going on. so clearly there is still an uphill battle for valeant at this point. >> this is a company that still is even with the conference call they held, people are unclear as to what the new business model is. and then you add the legal uncertainties, you mentioned goldman sachs downgrading the stock, in large part is wall street still rating it a buy? >> you know, a lot of people have come back from that. a lot of people who are the
biggest bulls on the stock, taking their ratings down. and so what has been interesting is that some people take out just the philli dor business and other people think there could be a bigger impact. the prescriptions might flow through several channels so maybe it is not 7% but if it is not getting reimbursement, that could be a bigger head. >> and you have take out the drug increases and the revenues that it would get from drug price increases and i think pearson said on a conference call the average drug price on the legacy drugs are 9%. if you back that off, that is revenue that it won't get in the future. >> yeah. and i think what people are the most concerned about is where the growth will come from. if growth would come from the specialty pharmacy channel or somewhere else. because clearly philli dor is not part of their future is they are using other specialty pharmacies and how successful that will be, given they are under so much more scrutiny.
>> meg, thank you. our biotech reporter. so what happens here. and we saw a nice bounce today. maybe people think the sentiment is so bad at this point. >> that might be the case. i think tim probably likes it as a trade here and he could be right. i would say though, i think there is tremendous headline risk here. you are flipping a coin. i think they changed thur business -- their business model before this citron thing cams out. that was the first straw. and everything after that was the final straw. so i would stay away. i will say this. allergan into earnings is the way to play it and i think it is still the way to play. >> do you think it is a trade here. >> i think it is a trade here. the street said we can't an allize. and then people at jeffries who downgraded the price on the stock. it doesn't mean there are not uncertainties. sow have to own a put and protect yourself with some protection. but to say the company is going to zero, i think what we've learned here is the pricing model may change.
it is a question of when did they learn about the philli dor pricing issues or where they were putting pressure on people like cvs and scripts. and people don't understand that. severing the relationship with philli dor means it is a buy. that is not the entire story. it is worth trading. it is a trade you dansby the door if you think there is more downside. >> we have news on el brands. >> raising the guidance. q3 experiences expected between 51 and 53 cents a chair versus the previous guidance of 45 cents a share. comp store sales expected to be up 5% which is expected at victoria secrets. and you looking at shares higher by 1% higher after hours. >> for some reason i feel like we go to pete najarian for this one. >> and it does sound like a
great trade by me. i i'm not -- i'm not sure -- i haven't found myself a name in. it doesn't have a lot of option activity. so it is not a name i touch often. >> but we do have gratuity. do go ahead and play it there. slide it, earl. there you go. >> what is great, this is from like ten years ago. >> yeah, i mean. >> what, the gratuitious -- >> the video is from ten years ago. >> does that make me a bad guy. >> up next, the war for your living room is as the apple set top box wraps up the first week of sales. was it a hit with consumers. we'll tell you what you need to know. and jane wells has more on the chipolte burrito disaster. jane? >> this is gratuitious. this is my kind of porn. it is one of the healthiest things you could have. but fresh has a dark side. i'll have the whole story -- the whole enchilada when we come back. oh, that smells good.
commodity could be your best bet for the rest of the year. he'll explain. and one undercover rally. could better times be ahead for the camera maker go pro. but the talk of fast food fans, chipolte shares falling 2% as the company faced fallout from a growing e-coli scare. jane wells is in l.a. with the story. hey jane. >> hey, melissa. the strain is not the severe form and no one has died and the clock is running out on new cases showing up. so analysts are unfazed. they say the 43 stores temporarily shut down in both of the states amount to 2% of all stores. in case you don't node, let me get you up to speed. 22 people in the two states fell ill with e-coli. mostle of of them ate the chipolte between october 14th and the 23rd. but some said they did not eat at chipolte. but a culture test is being done to see if the cases are related. >> in addition, as the food
questionnaires are completed with the cases, we will learn more about what food products these people ate. >> reporter: now chipolte tells cnbc that reopening the stores will depend on the progress and pace of the investigation which could take another week. there was a norovirus scare in the l.a. area, traced to tomatoes in minneapolis, st. paul. one says unlike jam in the box that had a terrible scare years ago based on undercooked meat. these gadays it is showing up i fresh produce. in happened with taco bell in 2006. and although it is not definitive it is at chipolte but more americans are buying fresh produce and restaurants are offering it and they expect the bad news to be fleeting and bmo says it hits the same-store sales ranging from .5% to 1.7%.
and price targets, still buys. ranging from $712 to $830, which is $200 more than where shares closed today. melissa. >> so if it is from fresh produce these days, does that mean the produce is not washed well and that is why? >> right. something happened along -- it wasn't treated well, it wasn't processed well, maybe something happened at the farm. a lot of this is organic and organics can't use synthetic pesticides and herba sides. so there is a huge emphasis on fresh and organic. but when it is not cooked, bugs can survive. >> all right, jane. thank you. enjoy that burrito or whatever that big thing is. >> it has been sitting around three hours. >> oh, delicious. take a pass: thanks, jane. well chipolte may have taken a hit today but other fast food names got a boost. wendy's, jack in the box, shake shack and yum. and let's go right to jack in the box.
guy adami. that is from q don'ta. >> that went from 100 to the $75 level-ish. and why is that the case. because the comps are slowing down. i still think it is a great company. i think they will spinoff at one point. ly say quickly at cmg, trade it down to the july lows. it held. this is off a lousy quarter on october 20th. i know valuation at 30 times federal earnings is expensive but given the volume today i think you could buy it at the $600 low. >> i completely agree with that call. and i look at it, our analysis andrew charles did analysis really quick, if the 43 stores they shut down temporarily were closed for the rest of the quarter, it is an 11 cents impact to earnings. so it is not a big hit. that is worst case scenario. i think the weakness is an opportunity to buy here. >> and the problem with the company is the comps are brutal. if you look at the comps an the same-store sales, i'm not
worried about the e-coli outbreak in that there have been 200 of these. this does happen. and jane pointed out the reality of what the stocks are facing. but why do you need to order it at 40 times, when the comps are so difficult. yum and mcdonald is the places i like. >> i would go to mcdonald's. but this is an opportunity because it has been so depressed so much. and now this e-coli, one more move to the down side. to guy's point talking about the 605, 607 level, that is a great opportunity to get back in. it was here a year ago october and here again this past summer and today bounced off 608. i think mcdonald's with the menu changes, this is going on a giddy-up. mac cafe. >> let's talk apple now. shares ending a three-month high. as the company launched the fourth generation apple tv. josh lipton joins us with what consumers are saying about the
device. josh? >> reporter: the war is on for your living room. apple, amazon and google all know that we still spend a lot of time watching television and they would like to make money off that experience. the new apple set top box finished the first of sales. starting at $149. reviews have been strong. with the users noting the speed and the fact that it is easy to navigate. it posts the own app store and siri capability remote which can do complex searches. and what is the future? the ceo said it's apps. and they carry netflix and hulu and games and shopping sites like guilt. the competition though is fierce. remember amazon just decided to drop sales of apple tv and google chrome cast, devices that compete with its own streaming hardware. it is tough to see how that move will have an impact on amazon's rivals. remember, consumers decide what
device to buy based on the eco-system they work and play in. fori os fans that means apple will make the most sense. on the last conference call, the tech giant wants to provide the sake innovation in the living room that they deliver in the ios devices. they have shipped 1 billion of the devices. if cook can convince them to buy the new apple tv, that could mean serious money, even for a company that sits on a cash mountain of $206 billion. melissa, back to you. >> josh lipton, thank you. apple tv, is that going to move the needle at the end of the day? >> i don't know. but i would be scared if i'm netflix. >> really? >> yes. >> why can't they coexist. >> because i think apple can be a meaningful player. but apple is streaming themselves. why wouldn't apple do the same thing that netflix is. when i hear this news, i worry about competition for netflix, which i think is many.
and for apple it is about the december holiday quarter and that is what the stock is priced in and therefore i'm cautious here. i'm long the stock, but i think this is not a driver for the stock. >> i use amazon tv and -- whoa, story, there were big noises in the ceiling of this place and we looked up. amazon as well as apple tv and netflix. >> i use apple tv, personally. not for any specific reason. i'm an apple user. and it would move the needle in the short-term. when you talk about the cost of the apps and people going toward games and the games from $4 up to $10 versus the 99 cents type items. that would be. i look toward the apple cart toward the future. giddy-up. >> i don't think it has an impact. in the next three years it is about the iphone. i think converting the games over to a living room type scenario, this is a push on the apple front to get the
developme development -- developers to move to that. and up next, dennis gartman, why he thinks china could be a better bet than u.s. stocks. plus charging up for tesla earnings. the stock may be in negative territory this year but we have the three key metrics to watch for the earnings report tomorrow and that could send the stock soaring. much more "fast money" right after this. a subconscious. a knack for predicting the future. reflexes faster than the speed of thought. can a business have a spirit? can a business have a soul? can a business be...alive? the market.redict... but at t. rowe price, we can help guide your investments through good times and bad. for over 75 years, our clients have relied on us
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welcome back to "fast money." it is now time for a game we like to call "fast" face-off. we figure out what is the best investment over the next three months and since commodities in china are the biggest stories than who better to play with than dennis gartman. good to see you. >> good to be see. >> i'll give you two options and he tell us which would perform better over the next few months. natural gas versus crude oil, which would you pick and why? >> if i had to choose one, would you choose natural gas. i think -- i think i would choose crude oil. natural gas is difficult to export. we're going to be an exporter of crude oil. give me the choice between the two and i'll take crude oil over nat gas at this point. >> next up, gold versus the dollar. which is the best bet for 2015 and why? >> i think the dollar is very,
very strong. i think we're only in the fourth inning of a nine-inning ball game as far as the dollar is concerned. a strong dollar is a reason for gold to go down. give me gold in euro and yen terms. but if i have to choose, i'll choose the dollar. >> next up, s&p 500 versus chinese equities, what is your verdict. >> nobody likes china. at that point my old friend burt cohen said when they are yelling, you should be selling and when they are buying, you should be crying. and i have to trade and over the next three months. give me chinese equities almost any time. >> and one last question, dennis and this is not the would you rather question but a general question. at the top of the show we were talking about crude equities, oil equities and how they rallied today, despite the fall in crude prices. what do you think was going on in today's market? >> i think the crude oil market equities have been
extraordinarily under pressure. i think they are done. i think divergence is to be paid attention to and from here on out one has to own the crude equities. i thought that dichotomy, that divergence is what you have to pay attention. when you see them, they happen for a reason. we'll find out the reason later. give me a choice, and i'll buy crude, even though it was under pressure today. >> dennis, good to see you. >> thank you. >> and dennis gartman of the gartman letter. so u.s. dollar and china over the s&p 500. >> it depends. if you want to trade the shares, you can trade through ptk and hsar. and it is like baba and baidu have been on fire and we are oversold on the china deval thing. gold goes down and oil goes up. >> what do you see on the baba baidu thing. >> i lean toward bobba right now.
and i know they did well on earnings. i think the e. and p. names have upside. i like the way the exxon chart -- i know they are talking about valuation. and i don't disagree. but they are rolling to the upside. up oil and down oil. that says something. >> would you have agreed with dennis gartman if you would have played the game. >> i love the movie. great movie with john travolta. >> it was a terrible movie. >> because you didn't have the sub titles to read. i'm just saying. but i tell you what, i do agree crude over nat gas. i know it is not a nat gas play but cheniere was down and i would rather be in crude than nat gas. >> up next, will he'll on muck be smiling when tesla reports earnings. the three things investors are watching. and it is a rough wide forgo pro. why is there a key supplier question and the trade coming up. i'm melissa lee, you're watching
"fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. almost five million athletes in 170 countries. the microsoft cloud allows us to immediately be able to access information, wherever we are. information for an athlete's medical care, or information to track their personal best. with microsoft cloud, we save millions of man hours, and that's time that we can invest in our athletes and changing the world.
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being targeted by carl icahn. he wants them to split into three separate units and return more capital to shareholders. a source close to aig, the restructuring was made before this was made public. they will take a restructuring charge. $300 million of the charge to cover the cost of laying off 300 to 400 members or up to 20% of the senior amount team. additional job cuts expected next year. and aig is using the charge to improve the technology platform. the restructuring saving them $400 million to $500 million annually. in a third quarter, decline hitting the bottom lines of aig consumer and commercial businesses earning at 52 cents a share well shy of 1:03 a share. hit by performances in hedge funds and lower income on assets including the firm's investment and the people 's insurance company of china.
melissa, back to you. >> mary thompson, thank you. pete, just bought some calls. >> yes. and they addressed the shake-up. and they are that iing about shaking things up ourselves. so i think sooner or later we'll see the stock pushed up toward the 52-week highs and now in the after market it is down. >> what is the time line on your call? >> very short-term. >> until earnings. about a month. tesla stock popping a day before it is due to report third quarter results, amid reports that the wait list for the model x is eight months. can tesla hold on to today's gains. some answers in our earnings edge. >> hi that is brad eric son with pacific crest. today we are talking about tesla's earnings for "fast money"'s earnings edge. for the production ramp as they ramp up model s and x, we think there is significant amount of execution involved. the second is the gross margin.
in ramping up model x, you are likely to see models chop. but analysises are thinking about the outlook is important for us. and the third thing we are looking for is the unveiling of the model 3 which is the market sedan and any progress updates and likely completion of the giga factory. long-term we still do have skepticism about the production ramp as well as the disappointing demand we've seen thus far for model x. in the near term, we think the stock could act well in the 2016 catalysts we just mentioned but we do remain sector weight on the name as we think the execution challenges combined with disappointing demand for the model x are -- could be a harbinger for future challenges on this company. i'm brad eric son with pacific crest securities for "fast money"'s earnings edge. so what are we expected for er earnings tomorrow, gee? >> i think they have to knock it all of the park to get the stock
back over 225. tim has been right to be skeptical. recently the stock has underperformed. the way to trade the stock is to wait for them to report, hope they miss a metric, hope it retests at 180 level and buy it there. if they beat and the stock goes higher. i think you just missed it. >> the guidance for the fourth quarter has got to be spot-on. >> and he said clearly, it is all about execution. and we talked about that on the show. the execution on the stock is significant. it is a stock you trade just like guy said. it is not a stock you want to invest in until they roll out a much more broad based product. >> am barrel ow surging 5% and some betting on bigger gains for stock in the coming weeks. mike is in austin with today's option action. >> we saw 1.5 times the average daily call volume and of all of the bets, 50% more bullish bets than bearish one. and the january 52.5 calls cost
a whopping $5.50. so more than 10% of the share price and that is a bet the stock will be up 10% by january expiration which is 74 days away. but bear in mind the stock is trading 15 times next 12-month earnings and it was in just a short period ago over $80. so that explains the high option price. >> mike. thank you. for more "options action," check it out 5:30 eastern time on friday. coming up on "mad money," cramer has the ceo of many businesses. the ceo of rubber maid. and the ceo of brunswick updating on the business of boating and the ceo of a firm, a private player pushing to modernize consumer lending. all of that and more next on "mad money." what a line up. coming up next, the traders tell you what they are watching for tomorrow. more "fast money" right after this. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices.
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it's more than it's multi-layered security and flexibility. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions. including cloud and hosting services - all from a trusted it partner. centurylink. your link to what's next. finally "fast" but not least, check out this dachshund playing a video game for dogs. the aim of the game is to catch
the fish across the screen and there is a screen protector on the device. i wonder if the dog is winning. before we get to the final trade -- >> that is not right. >> the dog obviously likes it. >> how do you know? >> he doesn't look mad. >> she could step away at any moment. any way. we should note that you at home and three guests can bid for a chance to watch a live taping of "fast money." log on. it is a wonderful charity. you have a week left to place your bids. it is a great time. >> great dinner. >> so we urge you to bid. all right. >> maybe not. >> time for the final trade. tim? >> twitter. pete and i sparred, it is a case where i think the stock is in the long-term turn around. i like the stock. >> pete. >> what is up, facebook and instagram. all of then are facebook. i think the stock goes higher. >> seaberg?
>> chipolte is a buy. i think they will resolve this very quickly. >> gee? >> bid often and early. fire eye, earnings on wednesday. >> i'm melissa lee. see you back here tomorrow at my mission is simple -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you money. my job isn't just to entertain you but to teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. how much is this or that stock worth? how much do we pay for it? how do we value it? that's the