tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC November 3, 2015 12:00pm-1:01pm EST
getting more narrow. maybe they do need to go for a broader audience. >> maybe in the rest of the world a heart is a better symbol than a star. i don't know. people aren't impressed. they say twitter has big are problems, bigger fish to fry. what's a heart going to do? >> that does it for us here on "squawk alley." let's go back to headquarters and whopner on "the half." ♪ >> let's heat our starting line-up for today. steve weiss and joe teranova. our game plan looks like this. call of the day. why the top analyst and the integrated oil space says exxon and chef rob are a buy. >> stocks going for six week in a row of gains.
>> the s&p now 2% from hitting new all-time highs. >> it hasn't been there since mid-july. it's energy leading the way. we'll talk to the analysts later on this call. we have a good day for energy. >> i mentioned if there was concern to be had, it was that november could trace out a similar pattern in 2011. you rolled over into november. it's consistent we're going to be looking good over the next three to six months. today is about energy coming back. carrying a lot of chatter and the hedge fund community and the bearish bets that were placed in oil. we'll see.
>> big cap is pushing it. you talk about energy stocks. i mean, look exactly what it was going on earlier today. s&p was basically flat. you look at the dow jones shooting to the up side. that was chevron and exxon. the big moves in some of these big cap names, that's really what's driving this market. and the rotation once again. yesterday was basically health care moving us to the p up side. you see a lot of movement in the biotech space and the big pharma space. not so much performance there today, but now all of a sudden -- or yesterday -- or today, rather, but you're starting to see the energy names really take over today. really powering this pashgt to the up side. >> let's bring in jeremy siegel. wharton school professor. he has been a long-time bull of this stock market back with us today from philadelphia. >> i think we'll have a good next couple of months, and honestly, it's not -- it's not
on earnings this year. i think the stock market really likes what the fed said in october. i think they want to get uncertainty of the fed hike out of the way, and they particularly like the fact that the fed removed that sentence about being concerned about global risks. the u.s. economy can move ahead in 2016 and i think that puts stock investors are looking to in terms of what the statement is and, by the way, tomorrow we have statements by bill dudley of the federal reserve bank of new york, stan fisher, the vice chair. these are going to be important. are we -- are they going to say yes, the market is, in fact, taking the right inference of last week. let's talk about the quality of the rally, if you will, professor? i want you to listen to a soundbyte from our guests
yesterday. >> i'm really not happy with what's driving this market? it's financial engineering. i would like to see revenues doing extremely well. earnings doing very well. >> we have buybacks and m&a, and it makes it hard to pick stocks. >> professor, that's from a noted bull. what's your take? >>. >> one thing i would like to see is that is a small stock that really lag. they are really nowhere near their high.
>> it's pretty pricey at 19. they are looking to 2016, saying that that's going to be a much better year, and they think that is going to be more evident as we get more data through the next two months. yes, you know, there is -- i would like to see small stocks join in here. i would like to see more certainty on the 2016 earnings are going to be. >> thanks for having me. >> another guy that always has interesting insight on what's happening in the market both here and abroad is goldman sachs's president and chief operating officer gary kohn. he is speaking as we speak with andrew ross sorkin in new york
city as the deal -- >> what is goldman sachs supposed to be today that it wasn't before? >>. >> i'm not sure there is a transformation. goldman sachs is 146-year-old company. for 146 years we've been coming in every day trying to figure out how to search our -- deliver tower clients what they need and what they want. we've been doing that, and that's exactly what they do. we're going to do it in the next -- have we evolved our business model? of course, we have evolved our business model. >> we've been quick to adapt technology and we've been quick
to change the way where he do things if it's in our client's best interest. that said, if you look at the last seven or eight years, we're a completely different firm and structure than we were prior to that. we fwrent a private partnership to a public company, and, b, we went from a nonbank holding company to a bank holding company. c, we've lived through an era of, you know, just enormous regulatory change. >> when i say transformation, though, i'm thinking, for example, you recently agreed acquire the on-line banking unit from ge that has $16 billion of deposits, or you've developed this thing called lagoon, which is a technology play, effectively. things that historically were so far -- you would have never said those words, goldman sachs and technology play or deposits. >> so on the technology front, again, our clients demand technology. we've been investing in
technology since the early 1990s. think of something called arca krsh think of something called ready. think of this little company called ice. we created ice to disintermediate oufrsz in the commodity space. that little company to disintermediate ourselves now owns the new york stock exchange. if you look at technology and the way we think of technology, how does it help us grow our business and more importantly, how does it help us provide a better prkt to our client? we'll just continue to do that. >> we were talking about retaining young people, and even attracting young people.
>> i didn't go to harvard. >> neither did most of our management committee. >> is it a good thing that young people seem to be wanting to go more and more to silicon valley and elsewhere and away from wall street? is this what the downsizing or downscaling of wall street has become, and what does it do to your business? >> we're having absolutely no problem attracting talent. as long as we provide the opportunity for talent to do what they want and we provide an environment for them to work in, where they feel like they're able to change the world they're able to be relevant. we'll have month problem attracting talent. i'm not worried what we're doing at goldman sachs. i'm worried about the rest of the economy, and i'm worried
about job creation in the real economy and what's going on and how we're really growing the economy and how we're going to create job creation. >> let me come back to the banking piece for one second, and we can go on to the real economy. i want to get into that. when i think, though, about young people on wall street one of the things that changed is that some people think that it's boring. maybe that's a good thing. maybe that's a bad thing. in the old days if airplane young person on wall street, you stayed up all night and put together the books, if will you. there was a sense of purpose. at the end everyone would go out drinking or there would be a closing dinner. there was a sense of mission, if you will. today if you ray young person working at one of these firms who is staying up all night, the first thing is that the partner, the sort of apprenticeship mogdz is a little broken in that the partner is unlikely to actually be there. now that they have cell phones, they're on the road.
they're meeting with clients. there is no closing dinner anymore. the sense of purpose or the light at the end of the tunnel after you stayed up all night is effecttively that the next day you were going to have to stay up all night again. what do you think of that, and i hear this over and over again from young people who are thinking about where they should be on wall street. >> i just wonder -- >> are you outing yourself as a source? >> no, no. i'm just -- i'm just wondering if in your world you get to stop working that you don't complain. in our line of business, people tend to work when the clients demand that they work.
>> it also the technology now allows us to outsource remedial work to other parts of the world so our analyst kz get more involved with client relationships earlier and earlier in their career. the whole model is evolving. >> let's talk about specifically start-ups. you do you spend a lot of time in these days for people like uber and others.
>> what has happened? >> so, look, you can't look at the valley as a universe. there's a variety of different companies in a variety of different stages. the over-arching point i would make about it is to the extent companies are providing goods or services that you and i can't live without, and you are willing to pay for, they have viable business models, and we're never going back. the fact that the millenial organization, the kids of today think that you run your entire life off of a mobile device is not changing. we're not putting that back in the box. to the extent we have
entrepreneurs that are continuously building better methodologies. they're not going to all survive, but it's hard to pick winners and losers early, and, therefore, we're out there. we're getting involved with as many companies as we can, and we'll let the market please determine who is going to be the winners and losers. >> do you see us in a bubble? i mean, that's obviously -- you go out there, and that's the question everybody asks. that's the question we're going to ask on this side of the country. >> i am not smart enough to know if there's a bubble. what i do know is they're providing products that i use and you use every day.
>> i think the state of the current m&a market is a state of the global economy. by that when you take what's going on in the boardroom today or an executive office, they've gone through this five, six, or seven year process of, you know, doing everything they should do as a great management team. they started out by restructuring their debt, saving money through borrowing money cheaper and rolling out their maturities. second, they went through this whole process of optimizing their business. getting rid of inefficient businesses, outsourcing what they needed to outsource. moving manufacturing to the cheapest labor pools. that's how corporations over the last seven years have managed to
create shareholder returns. they managed to create roe and eps sometimes on flat line top revenue, and sometimes even on declining revenue. >> i can get get rid of expenses. if i'm someone in the beverage business per se and i've got two back office felts and multily brewing facilities. if i merge those businesses together and i close duplicate facilities all of the savings fall to the bottom line and fall to the shareholder and they're in essence creating value. >> there was a piece in the front page of the "wall street journal" just two weeks ago about consolidation, the amount of consolidation that's taking place over the years and whether
it's hurt competition. there was an editorial in the "new york times" over the weekend talking about how perhaps all of these mergers have ultimately led to some degree inequality in the country. what do you think of that? >> i. >> can you go to cnbc.com if you want to hear more from andrew ross sorkin and gary kohn. coming up next, an upgrade for energy stocks that you have in your portfolio. the street's top integrated oil analyst makes the case for buying big oil today. it's why it's our call of the day. it's a stock moving one at that, and you are watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. (vo) what does the world run on? it runs on optimism. it's what sparks ideas. moves the world forward. invest with those who see the world as unstoppable.
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>> melissa focuses solely on japanese stocks. she has covered that spaegs, by the way, for more than a decade. back with us from new york. melissa, welcome back. >> hi, scott. great to be here. >> the best month coming off the best month for japan in a couple of years. does it continue or was that just, you know, one of those things you look at how october was in this market and then
we're going to reverse back to maybe a slower progression for equities. fund mental lit stock market is compelling. you are seeing rate raises by quality companies that are firing on all cylinders, but at the same time we have this overhang from the fed, and we also have this overhang from china so there's a lot of competing forces out there. it's creating a lot of volatility. >> when you say, you know, china, how closely tied is what happens in, you know, the swrap knees equity market tied to what's going on in china? >> it really depends on the sector. there are certain areas of the market that have a pretty high correlation to what's going on in china is and then others that are not really affected at all. you know, one area that i would point directly to is the tech sector. you know, tech is one area of the market that was really beaten up are not some of the issues around china over the
summer, and i think what we are seeing right now is some element of mean reversion. >> are you still a believer in the three ro's? >> i am to some extent. i would like to see -- >> and that being -- i should also say just for people that don't even know what i'm talking about, the -- you know, abe's plan to stimulate the economy and get growth really going back in the right direction. you know, already had a couple of things take place, but now investors have their eyes turned on this third so-called arrow that is going to do even more. >> there are two elements of it that i am a believer in. i think the corporate governance is a big one. i think lael getting companies aligned with shareholder values and really focussing on earnings growth and earnings momentum around that shareholder value and utilizing their cash and paying more out to shareholders are really positive initiatives
aligning boards more with shareholders. these are positive initiatives that we're excited about. the second thing is the government has said that they are considering doing a fiscal blast, and i think this could really help your lower income consumers in japan, and this could be an interesting story going into 2016 depending on what the government comes out and really says that they're going to do. >> it's steve weiss. i think japan has underperformed any other economy in terms of inflation. there's been -- it's been deflation for years and years, and the market is still 50% of its peak. the question is there any point in time that you think will that the government will lose their appear tut for further stimulus because it hasn't had the impact that i believe everybody thought it would have? can they go backwards or is it just going to keep doing more and more until they get the savings rates down, they get the -- and part of it also, obviously, is how old the
population is. how do they change those things? >> wrau. i mean, there's a lot going on in that question. >> yeah. >> i think what i'll do is i'll just say -- i'll attack it by going after the fiscal stimulus that i spoke about. you know, i think one area of the economy that has not benefitted from the monetary stimulus has been this lower income consumer, and the government is very concerned about that. i think they're saying, all right, let's get this consumer going so we can bump up consumption, and then we can start really passing on some of the inflation that's creeping into the system that's hurting these people, but is actually helping others, so let's create a bit of a balance here and hopefully that leads us to some level of gdp growth. that's the thesis that's out there. that's what we're watching very carefully to see if that actually all actually happens. you know, in the scope of all of that, you know, the government is really trying to open up
japan more and also to get companies to utilize their cash and to be more aggressive, to be more risk-taking because in a deflationary economy, cash is king. if we think about it, they've done what's intelligent and say, okay, well, prices are going to go down. let's hold cash. now all of a sudden the government is saying, well, guess what, we're going to do everything we can to raise prices so you have to figure out how to become more risk taking and be more aggressive. so i think we're watching very carefully the companies that are good at that and that are doing that, and i think as we kind of shake out and get through all of this macro overhang, i think this is going to be an excellent stock pickers' market, and companies that have great corporate governance and have the fundamentals to back themselves up will take advantage and do quite well. >> thank you for coming on today. really appreciate you spending time with us. just to wrap this up, his 12-part question.
>> my question was a lot in itself. >> is this for you a currency driven story? >> buy and hold. it is the one geographic region to me that's buy and hold. the last couple of years -- you are correct in your three-hour question. understand additionally they import a lot of energy. that energy cost is lower, and, yes, it's about a cheaper yen. buy and hold japan. >> you can't fault melissa for going on answering the question. she's a nice lady. she wanted to answer all eight parts of what weiss was talking about, right? >> jared is quiet. they gave me questions to ask. i did that. >> we knew it was a one shot thing. weiss could get all 12 in. >> energy is the top performing sector today with crude rising as well. why one all-star analyst sees reasons to be bullish in big oil stocks now. it's our call of the day. that's next.
admiral harry b. harris says that it was meant to demonstrate the principle of freedom of navigation. >> prosecutors are, again, pushing for a murder conviction in the oscar protester orus case. >> 2-year-old benjamin gould was arrested last from you on charges of public intoxication and assault. washington nationals have a new baseball manager named dusty baker. the 66-year-old baker is a three-time winner of the national league manager of the year award. he last managed the cincinnati reds in 2013. you're up-to-date. that's the news update this hour. back to you, scott. >> all right, sue. thank you so much. crude oil surging almost 3% today hitting a two-week high. swraky deangeles at the nymex
with the futures now. hey, jackie. >> hi. good afternoon to you, scott. as a matter of fact, for about the last week crude oil is up just under a little bit less than 10%. scott nations, what's driving the rally today? >> there is also the belief starting to appear that as hedges for producers start to roll off, these producers are going to have to finally get serious about curtailing production. >> okay. jim, in terms of the level that is we're watching, we're getting closer and closer to 50, as a matter of fact. brent went over that mark today. what's going to happen with wti? where do we go from here? >> i'm looking at the contract. today's move was an important move, and if it settles above 47, which at this point looks like a relatively safe bet, then i think it visits those highs from late august and early october, which is around 51.50.
i like the fundamental ideas thatcott put forwd, and i would say if, brett, the fed isn't going to tighten and the data this week particularly on friday's -- that could hurt the dollar and provide the tail wind that crude needs to get up there. >> okay. we're talking more commodities on the live show, scott. we've got jodi gunzberg with us. she has stats on the commodities move. you don't want to miss it. futures email@example.com. >> we'll stick with oil. evercore ui says it is time to buy the big oil names. that firm upgrading bp, chevron, and exxonmobil today. it's our call of the day. all three stocks on the move. we're joined on the phone by the number one integrated oil analyst on wall street, doug terreson. welcome. >> good afternoon, everybody. >> interesting call. i'm sure you can probably understand why some are asking why now. the stocks over the last month have all had a darn good run as the market itself has had a pretty good run. chevron up 20%. exxon up 14.5%.
bp up 14%. where now? >> well, you are right. they have been good stocks recently. let's put this in perspective. it only recovered about 20% of their underperform wrans since the summer of 2014, and so while they have done pretty well recently, i think what's more important here is that this there does appear to be a shift in the major category, and when you think about the valuations for some of these names, i mean, even with what they've had recent recently. >> you thinking a call on oil itself in this upgrade? >> we are making a call on oil itself. we do think that brent is going to be a 55 to 60 this year and 65 or 70 next year, and so the timing of the call today was driven by our view that those higher oil prices and industry consolidation are ahead and that these factor wills combine to
put in play the bottom annual market and energy stocks in 2016. the other point that we made is that with the big oil trading at low on valuation, financial expectations, and technical factors, and when you consider the short interest, we just think that it's time to come off the sidelines and risk-wree ward, and that's the reason for the upgrade today. >> lay, doug, what did you think last night of the commentary this morning? better than expected earnings? talking about a rebound in oil. you've got a lot of these domestic shale names that david einhorn called the mother frackers. >> we think they're close. when you think about the oil market, the economic growth and oil demand are pretty healthy. we've seen the iea revise projections for demand higher in consecutive months and by a whopping 50%. the demand side is doing its part. then on supplies there's now
this commentary this year about not only being resilient, but based on the work that we do, it was growing by around 2.5 million barrel az day. it's grown by close to zero this day. supply and demand are on divergent passes, and we think it will recover starting next year. >> you mentioned consolidation. in fact, in your note you say you're looking for a new competitive hierarchy. >> in addition, the once the assets are gone, they're gone for good. you can't be left out the high cost producer. your share price performance will suffer for decades to come.
we do think that the consolidation is inevitable. >> you missed it. i didn't get the compaination correct. what matters more is the -- if the thing does unfold, we think it's employing to put in place the bottom of the oil market and also the obama in the oil stock. just remember, the consolidation in my space, we had six or seven mergers. >> thanks for coming on today. i appreciate the conversation very much. >> you're welcome. >> doug at evercore isi. >> you want to talk about these calls? >> i love the call.
it is a gutsy call, scott, because when -- i got rewarded for it depend whenning you held. pete got into a layer. he got into end of september, beginning of october, and that's been a lot less pain and obviously the same great gain, joe, over with pxd and some of the others. sdmree makes a bigger picture trend. you will say $20 wasn't as meaningful as it looks today rel ti to where the stocks were a month ago. >> weiss? >> i agree. you know, i have been -- i haven't done anything. it looked like trade and we talked about it a few weeks ago on the show. i just haven't pulled the
trigger. >> when you think about the transition, we had an emotional low in the commodity, and now we put that behind us as we're more sanguin about what's happening in china. i bet you get another chance to buy some of these stocks. >> i think what's interesting is the fact that oil and energy has not gone down this late in the fall. >> those have had options. as john pointed out early october. >> all right. news alert for you. julia borstein has that from l.a. hey, swrula. >> a&e networks announce agnew tv network called viceland. it's a rebranding of a&e's h2 network and is scheduled launch in early 2016. the new 24-hour channel programmed by vice will be distributed to about 70 million homes and writer-director spike jones has been overseeing the development of the new channel.
now, sources familiar tell me that a&e will increase its ownership stake in vice as pamp the deal to about 15% of the company and he initially invested in vice last august. >> disney co-oinz with disney. disney has no comment. back to you. >> julia, thank you so much. >> well, party city, bojaningles, just a few stocks trading below their ipo price. some of those falling stars could they be reenergized by a takeover deal? we go around the desk and get our experts' takes next. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices.
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back in positive tear for the year. what could the major averages really gain double digits for 2015? one strategist says yes. activision buying king digital. other video game stocks you should be watching right now, and tesla getting ready to report earnings after the bell. should you be a buy of the stock ahead of the numbers? back to you, scott. >> thanks. see you in just a bit. king digital surging on news the maker of candy crush is being bought by activision blizzard. it's a lifeline for investors who road the stock down from its ipo next year. who could be next? there is a long list of companies trading now below their ipo prices.
>> now they have to move on. you don't get that quarterback, and the problem is now guidance for next quarter isn't very strong. that's partially what's also hitting the stock. i think at these levels 3.5 billion company right now, i think the opportunity is for anybody interested out there, if there is a time, now might be the time. >> okay. pete. doc. >> that was the same. i have made the point on this one. yeah. >> everyone -- that's the only one on the list? >> well, look at the revenue. i mean, king digital had one game, right? candy crush. one game. 600 million thereabouts. these guys, gopro, the same. they come up with new versions of the camera. they've got the drone. this is their quarter. >> these restaurant companies
are different and not as attractive. fogo, noodles, potbelly. >> party city is the one that's -- party city, i mean, literally no competition. what's the competition. they have deals, partnerships with target, wal-mart, amazon to distribute their products. think about it for a second. all the des any products that -- you walk in the store, and the store is always crowded. >> coming up, auto sales blowing away estimates yet again. the stocks of ford and gm, while some say they've been stuck in a rut, they've been moving more lately. should you be betting on a rebound? our auto guy, our expert phil lebeau breaks down the numbers. moves the world forward. invest with those who see the world as unstoppable. who have the curiosity to look beyond the expected
we are back. boy, things are tightening up in our race for trader of the year. portfolio challenge. stephanie link and john and jarian at 11.3%. >> we're in a three-way tie. >> everything is 11.5. so this moves minute by minute. it that's where we are right now. looks like it's a pretty good race. >> josh is right there, 10.3 and jim 9%. >> pete's good to go green, too. >> pete is green. >> we need streamers. this is like winning the nba championship. >> whatever.
move on. >> you made some moves recently, though. a lot of time left. >> it's gotten far more exciting, no doubt. >> automakers reporting another strong month of sales shaping up to be another record year, four big names reporting sales of more than 13%. so what is the trade do you think? ford was slightly short. gm was above. you could see the others, as well. what is the trade on these stocks right now? >> i like gm. it's 35 1/2. i think it takes out the march highs. a strong quarter. you've seen the done flew in co indicators all to cost together. you're seeing consistency and strength for the first time. >> i like bmw because the diversification. i mean as far as the geographic diversification that they have scheefed over the last few years. and i love that unfortunately the pain for volkswagen is
certainly a gain for bmw on the lower end, 3 series and some of those. >> i like gm, as well. conversely, it makes you want to stay away from rental companies. avis has missed, hertz has missed. and the fleets are rolling over so quickly, they're tleeding the market with with used cars. so when they sell their rentals, they're not getting the prices. sfwl up next-befo -- wait, we're to go the harley thing? >> bring it. >> they switched it right before i was reading. we're back right after this. you pay your car insurance
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. we are pack. three hours left in the trading day. i want to show you the markets.. three hours left in the trading day. i want to show you the markets. dow jones back to 18,000. hasn't closed above it since mid-july. you do have the dow up by 86 points right now. the s&p is up a quarter of a percent. nasdaq doing pretty good, as well. let's talk earnings. we do have the look back to fit bit and then certainly the look ahead to what is coming after the bell. there is the calendar, but fit bit, what do you think, strong earnings? they lift the lockup earlier than expected. >> secondary and then lifting the lockup. >> both angered you. >> yeah, when you look at the numbers that they put up, they were absolutely outstanding. >> cramer this morning said it was an amazing quarter. >> and then they come out with the secondary. so there is a huge hit. and suddenly they change the lockup. that part i just don't get. unfortunately for those of us
who are long either stock, in this case i'm long calls, but it makes it very difficult in a very short time frame for my calls, i've got until they expire in november for those to work. but right now, it's not. and it was all based upon that because those numbers were outstanding. >> they started buying the calls when stocks ran to almost 42 into the number. but then with that 16% run that i'm talking about, you stopped at the timing institutional paper, it was all retail into the belly yesterday. that's one of the reasons. >> you want to buy it pricing of the deal. so if you like the story, it will be a great buying opportunity. >> cramer raised that which is really the only question that matters truly when it comes to your long term view is whether this company is at the wave of the future or if it's the next gopro. those were his words. you're in the buying it because you think it's the next go row oi go proceed oig. >> 93% of market share right
now. so they have themselves positioned very well. the other issue is how about apple and when does apple go without being tethered. and that i think could be a factor, as well. >> earnings tomorrow. i think vir 2 financial will crush it. i think the volatility in the market in august worked incredibly well for them. you want to talk about an ipo that worked, that's a name that has. volatility is good for them. >> let's look ahead at earnings after the bell tonight and again tomorrow. we did have media stocks again. >> and they're on fire today. disney is up 1%. netflix with some unusual activity yesterday made 4.5% pop today. so up the media stocks already moving to the up side. >> cbs is an interesting one. they don't have the cable issue. so they're content, one network.
that may be the horseshoe you want to play because it should benefit from all this. so i want to see what they have to say. >> do you think they will be good quarters for the media companies? >> i do. and i think that it will be the on that 1what it was last year. >> good stuff, guys. we'll see yyou tomorrow. you power begins now. gentlemen, thank you very much and welcome to "power lunch." we're happy you could join us today. sara eisen is with me. mandy drury is off. she returns very shortly from way down under. what a day it has been. what a week. what a month. the dow, nasdaq, s&p back in positive territory for the year. s it's been a roller coaster ride