tv Fast Money CNBC November 6, 2015 5:00pm-5:31pm EST
for them to be stealing. >> big numbers. >> we'll be watching all it. thank you for joining me this afternoon. that does it for us on "closing bell." again, with markets notching six straight weeks of gains, even after the big surprise on the jobs report this morning. "fast money" is up next. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york time square. i'm sara eisen in for melissa lee. tim, dave, steven and tim grasso. tonight on "fast," the raging bull. we are not talking about denero, we're talking about tom lee. he came on the show and said buy. the market is up since then. where does he see stocks going next. he joins us in just a moment. plus this man's word sent one company tanking and another soaring. we'll take you behind the famed short seller short call. plus how you can get in on the action right now. but first to the blowout october
jobs report. 271,000 jobs added, upping the odds that a december interest rate hike is a sure shot. a slew of market moves. bonds got whacked, banks ripped. gold tanks and the dollar surged. so let's get to the jobs playbook given what happened today. what should you be doing with your mon now that the odds of a fed hike are up past 70% in december. steve grasso. >> i think it is telling in guys numbers. but financials, i i think you are -- i think you are forced to buy them. jp morgan up. and bank of america flat. and citi up 2% and e-trade up 25%. and schwab up 11%. so i think you are forced -- a lot of guys have it in their numbers already but the big boys, the mutual funds, pension funds are still basing their case on rates go higher and financials are bought. i don't think it is all in the numbers just yet. >> we talk about the equity
market. the fact that the dollar surged which is a headache for profits and equities held up. >> there were things interesting about today and the oil prices held when you consider the dollar moved. finishing almost flat. maybe good news again. but you don't want to own -- gold is going down. gold and goldminers. and some of the miners in the metal space go down. i agree with steve on financials. and the yield curve didn't steepen. the short end came up and the long end one up more and that means that the net interest margins are not getting better but they are oversold. i totally agree with that. >> treasury-year-old, short-term, and the dollar at a seven-month peak against the euro. >> look at the environment we are in. we can guess about what the yield curve will do. will the banksern more. it will take 100 basis points of tightening for the banks to see anything out of. this but what i do know is that
the dollar is going higher. that is the one thing that we saw today. very consistent. i think most people agree on that. we also have a u.s. economy that has a better employment picture. so i need a stock that does good in a strong dollar environment wand with a -- and with a good employment environment. that stock -- home depot. it did very well today. it has done well over the last year. when you have a strong dollar, people spending money on that. i would play it, home depot. >> how do you play it? >> i think it is important to think about the bank strad as a -- trade as a short-term trade. interest rates, you nailed it. it will not have a move. 25 basis points isn't going to move the needle from that perspective. the fundamentals of the bank have move and we saw them rally with the market generally. but be careful. it is a short trade when the fed does act, you take that trade off. i say the reits will be under pressure right now. as long as rents are moving higher than rates are moving an
the utility companies can raise prices faster, they can offset that. >> and b.k. is talking about with energy, during a rate-rising cycle, you have energy and utilities outperform. i think you will see something different this time. because with energy, they usually outperform because you have a larger global growth. inflation. we had a sniff of it today, but not a lot. so i think energy could be the canary in the coal mine that we are not on track to have the same cycle that we normally do. >> in other words it is not your typical tightening environment. >> when you consider what happened today and what people expect. brian said dollar is going higher. the immediate reverse and inverse correlation for the last year is that oil goes down and goes down big. probably with a beta of two to three. we didn't see that today. and to me, i make the argument that energy shares have seen the bottom and if anything -- again this is good news. i was very encouraged by the market saying if the u.s. economy is strong the global mark is better.
>> but emerging markets got hammered. >> they finished 1% off the floor. not the kind you put forth, sayre auxt yours are four or five or six brain cells. but everybody is expecting it to fall. here is what i say about e.m. it is priced in. i would argue when the fed starts to tighten, e.m. will rally. >> i don't know turkish lira got whacked. we'll move on. the last time the guest was on the show the s&p was at 1860, near the market low late summer. at that time we asked him on a scale of 1-10, how bullish are ow on u.s. stocks. here is what he said. >> i'm going to give it ten out of ten. what you have to think about is seasonals are really strong. when you have a down q3, q4 is up 90% of the time. >> well that was a good bet. the s&p 500 up 11% since then. want to welcome tom lee back with us. let's kick it off with u.s. stocks. we're changing the scale today. we're going one through five.
how bullish are you one through five given the double-digit run yuf since the last time you were on? >> hi, sara. yeah. we're still very bullish on stocks. so i'm going to give equities a five. >> five out of five? >> five out of five. sorry five out of five. not five out of ten. >> listen to that. >> now you have to justify your case given the fact that we've got a strong jobs report, looks like the federal reserve will tighten in december and a lot of the good news has already been priced in over the last few weeks. why are you so bullish? >> that is right. there is good news baked in. but we have to remember, the fed tightening is adjusting rates because the u.s. economy is hitting a escape philosophy. so that is very bullish. the second thing to keep in mind, we punished will -- published that a week and a half ago. i know it will sound weird. fed tightens are accompanied by weaker dollar and i think you will see positive revisions to earnings next year, especially
in the early cyclical space including energy and a gigantic reallocation of capital in 2016 toward stocks. stocks have been liquidated this year and markets near all-time highs. it is an asset class that will benefit and that will dampen volatility and markets. those are the top threes. >> let's test your bullishness on a global scale. what about emerging markets, one through five, how bullish are you? >> i'm going to them above average so i'm going to give that a three. actually maybe a four. let's say four out of five. >> explain yourself. because the conventional wisdom is when the federal reserve tightens the emerging markets get hit and the money comes out of the markets, all the hot money pouring in over the zero interest rates reversed and hurts their economy. >> exactly. a couple of things. one emerging markets have been hammered because of fears a slowdown will lead to a global
recession and they are the most vulnerable. and secondly, as you pointed out, strong dollar with the external debts is a huge stress. so the reason we like e.m. is number one, i think global growth is looking better. china pmi looked like they've bottomed. but also if dollar weakens, that will take out additional credit stress and i think conditions are improving so i'm bullish on e.m. >> tom lee, thank you for ranking your bullishness. three on e.m. five out of five on stocks. let's trade his comments on desk. b.k., i know you don't agree with the dollar stuff. >> no, i don't. and tom had a good piece out about a week or so ago talking about the strong dollar and how the fed and how that impacts the u.s. stock market. and he and i went back on twitter and he did say, listen, if we get a big dollar rally, which i think we're going to have and tom lee talked about the fact there are external debts there are $9 trillion of dollar denominated debt that just got more expensive today. as people cover that short
position, you can have the dollar rise a lot faster than the fed expects an the market expects. so that is the big picture thing that is going on out there. and i think all of your investment thoughts have to flow from that at this point. >> quick comment on his idea of re allocation of money into stocks next year. >> i think it will happen. i'm bullish on that. no question about that. >> up next, chanos pitching a short idea and senting one major internet stock tumbling. the name and how to trade it. and later. activisi activision, a game-changer for the company's bottom line. and plus is it the curse of the $300 billion market cap club. facebook now lower after joining that elite club. could amazon see a similar pull-back. much more "fast money" after this. moves the world forward. invest with those who see the world as unstoppable.
>> seema mody. thanks very much. massive shortcut. obviously oprah first. 20 is the key level for the stock. you don't need to do anything. >> oprah got a much better pop than steve cohen. >> good for her. >> to chipolte. a tough day for the company. a downgrade courtesy of rw baird weighing on the stock. cutting it to neutral from outperform. lowering the price target to 675 from 850 citing concerns over the e. coley outbreak. stores are still closed in washington state and oregon. is this going to hit sales, is the question. >> our analyst at cohen and company did an analysis of this. if all of the 43 stores stay shut for the quarter it is 11 cents hit for earnings so it is not a meaningful hit from our perspective. is this a broad based walk away from chipolte for the short-term, i've eaten and i
feel comfortable. guys on my desk have. so i look at it and say it is an opportunity. >> i have not. >> i lost weight. right. but i think it is a good level here. i think the -- the stock is going to work out. it is going to take a little bit of time for it to work out but at this level you rarely get pullbacks from chipolte. it is time to step in and buy. >> at 2% of u.s. sales closed. up next, alibaba up after it was pitched as a short at a conference today citing accounting concerns. and it pitches the second biggest e-commerce company as a long to hedge the trade against the baba short. tim. >> i get it. and pair trades and e.m. high volatile could be dangerous and go against you. chain os has been a china bear for a long time. i think if there are people that people -- things that people hate about the stock it is
transparency. a move like this on a statement from chain os, not a big surprise. pecially when you consider the activist activity or people going against ohio volume name have been working. again the stock was so overbought going into the announcement, the you tube of china very good this week. these are one of the names you have to own globally. >> 38% since just october. >> with an activist involved, these are binary events. so it is a flip of the coin. you don't know. to tim's point, you don't know which way this will shake out f. you want to hedge, that is great. i would buy amazon up 112% with sws, screaming forward. >> the cloud. >> the cloud versus taking a gamble on baba. >> why? why would you want to do that. everything is priced in amazon. >> no. >> it is not? >> no. >>s tup 112%. >> it is up 112% and amazon web services is a kmomid that everybody is going to come after
this. and baba has an area to go into it -- >> and the only problem is -- >> wait, wait. the chinese government wants to switch their economy to smur led so why would you want to switch to baba. >> because the chinese government told you that. i'm going with the proven one. up 112%. >> okay. >> come on. >> i'll tell you what -- i'll trow in the mix. i think amazon is going higher. i think baba is going to go higher as well. i like baba here and because of the deal. i look at netflix as well. it is going to go into china. this baba deal will clean up the content-driven mechanism. >> bringing it together. the only other stock in the s&p 500 that is up higher than amazon in 2015. >> yeah. >> and by the way. >> singles day coming up 11-11-11. and my sources in china, it will
be strong. and this is not in the price. and in the second quarter gmv drove the stock down and this noise you always do have -- you do have. >> you do. >> and it is an opportunity. people are selling down china on the economy imploding and pushing down the u.s. traded adr and look at what baidu and baba has done. >> you set me up perfectly for singles day. because peeking of alibaba, jack ma will be on "squawk on the street" next week. that is single day. it is alibaba's biggest sales day of the year. next up, video game company activision blizzard is tapping into a new multi-billion dollar industry and it has to do with sports. julie a boorstin joins us live from anaheim, california. julia. >> thank you, sayra, i'm hear a the leather stone plaza. it is here at bliz con which drives 25,000 gamers to a
weekend of events with millions more people watching online. and the main attraction is e piv sports. competitive video game play to determine the world champions for four different video games, competing for over a million dollars in prize money. activision blizzard just last month created a division devoted to e piv sports and hired the former ceo of espn and the nfl network to run it. >> think about how many tens of millions of people are playing games around the world. in organized competition. it is only going to grow. we have the most played franchises generally speaking and we want to make sure that we're appropriately celebrating the commitm our players make to that content. so we're going to be producing much more professional content in the celebration of the players. >> the millions are already competing around the world for e sports. they see an opportunity to treat e sports with the same gravity as traditional sports. >> we're really focused on
elevating the quality of the production experience. elevating the -- the -- on the part of the mass consumer to recognize this is a mass media and these are professional players, and even the amateur players are so skilled and accomplished that celebrating their accomplishment is something we want to do and they think this new division will be able to do that. >> unlike traditional sports which bring huge licensing fees to be paid to the leagues. activision owns all of the content. sara, back over to you. >> thank you very much. interesting move on activision for a big week for the company. jewel a boorstin. let's trade this company. >> i love activision. i like it for the sports -- >> you're a gamer? >> i'm not a big gamer. i'm a gambler, i should say. i love activision because i think this king acquisition will be monstrous for them. they are getting incredible ip and talent, game developers, the best of breed. >> and they are getting female
gamers. >> disney asks -- >> here is what i say about the stock. it is priced for perfection. it has gone from 20 to 40 in the last 12 months. there is tons of competition in the space. so say they have a market on this, no. >> we have to leave it there. some are calling it the most obvious trade on wall street. no, it is not the banks. we'll tell you what it is later on. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here is what else is coming up on "fast." >> the latest james bond film may bem coming to a theater near you but he is not the only one that gets to live the lavish. we're looking at the real live bonds rolling in the dough. >> and one dow stock has created over $70 billion in new market cap since september. we'll give you the name and how to profit now, later in the hour.
own lives as well. cnbc robert frank is live with a look at billionaire bonds, robert. >> the tools of oo 7, from his cars to submarines to yachts have become the toys of today's billionaire bond fans. take elon musk. as a kid he saw the spy who loved me and fell for the lotus sports car that turned into a submarine. and when it calm up for auction, he bought it for just under a million dollars. but it was not functioning so i installed a tesla powertrain to make it work as an actual sub-car. now the desert family in florida has believed what it believed to be the largest private bond car collection, including the aftin martin used in gold finger with the ejection seat and several bond villain cars. the total collection about $35 million. the ultimate bond boat billionaire is john sloopy, the auto magnate. he has built and owned 18 yachts, all of them named after
james bond movies. gold finger, moon raker, diamonds are forever. we asked him why? >> it is exciting. the name is exciting. watching a james bond movie, you never know what will happen next and our boats do the same. >> you never know what will happen. he is currently building "spectre." the grand unveiling at a italy shipyard to be unveiled in 2017. $50 million. sara back over to you. >> a lot of bond toys. who is the bond buff here? >> not a bond buff. but robert, let me ask you. are more yachts being sold. it seems like the disparity wealth in the world today, where are we with demand on this. this seems like a place we should be investing. >> the yacht world is a good reflection of what is happening globally with wealth. the lower end of the yacht world, under 150 feet. that market is not great. boats over -- >> a dingy. >> boats over 200 feet that, market is booming. so it is the billionaire crowd,
the folks who are unaffected by the normal forces of economic gravity and likes the sloopy, building this giant bond boat. they are less affected. so the top of the top doing very well right now. >> robert frank, thanks very much. for what it is worth. vox is calling it the worst james bond movie in years. ouch. we'll see what happens this weekend. it is time for final trades. around the horn. >> fer holding at 51. and my final frad is ralph lauren it. was oversold because of the global economy. you now have a couple of aisles running into upgrade. it is underowned and a name you could still buy. you don't need to buy it tomorrow. it is up and recovering. >> seaberg. >> i'm going to have to defend chipolte again. >> i thought you wore going to say shake shack. >> no, it is going lower. chipolte, i would be a buyer here. they are going to settle this. this will work out fine. i don't think it is a big hit to
the earnings. >> b.k. >> i think the best thing is to be long dollar. because the double short euro. they have already said they are doing more. >> grasso. >> in the gaming space, electronic arts. releasing star wars battle front. goes up from here. >> thanks guys. have a great weekend. orrible ni. orrible ni. my company's entire network went down, and i was home in bed, unaware. but that would never happen. comcast business monitors my company's network 24 hours a day and calls and e-mails me if something, like this scary storm, takes it offline. so i can rest easy. what. you don't have a desk bed? don't be left in the dark. get proactive alerts 24/7. comcast business. built for business.
we are live at a very balmy nasdaq market site. i'm sara ize in tonight for melissa lee. the gis are getting -- the guys are getting ready behind me. while they do that, this is up. >> we're out of gas. >> and that could spell trouble for one dow stock. we'll give you the nape and how to profit. and how would you like to make money if amazon shares go up, down or nowhere at all. >> it is a good question. >> and we have the answer, jeff. we'll break it down. and -- >> they're cool and available and addictive. >> which might explain why cigarette stocks are surging. but if you missed the run, we'll tell you how to profit. thti