tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC November 9, 2015 5:00am-6:01am EST
hi, everyone. good monday morning. welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm susan li. >> i'm carolyn roth. these are your headlines from around the world. more fed talk and a hike makes sense. john williams after the solid pay rolls reading prompting goldman sachs, citi, and barclays to bring forward their rate rise expectations to december. putting pen to paper. they will buy plumb creek for $8.5 billion. a timber giant will own more than 13 million acres of u.s. forestry.
a bonus battle heats up as they suggest that a compensation could fall this year for the first time since 2011. the best night for "saturday night live." critics slam donald trump's appearance and calls by opposers to dump the trump. good monday morning. thank you so much for joining us. if you're just tuning in, thanks so much for finally sharing your time with us. let's quickly check in on the futures board and what it's telling us ahead of the wall street open today. and it looks like we are below fair value. we're coming off the sixth consecutive fasa week for all big three industries. that's the longest winning streak since late 2014. the implied open is telling us we're going to be down 5 points. the s&p, dow jones industrials pricing in declines. the nasdaq looks like we are
closer by 4.5 points. let's talk about european markets. european markets, we've been on a winning streak of sorts at least when it comes to the cac 40, german dax as well. today we're giving back some of that advance. this is on concerns about more tightening for the federal reserve. the largest central bank in the world. the ftse 100 seeing a small gain up .25 of 1%. that's some positive news here. the cac 40 has been on a six-day winning streak. looks like that might come to an end today. the ftse mib seeing losses of 1/3 of 1%. let's talk about china trade. china trade data over the weekend slumping once again. exports falling nearly 7% in the month of october. that's the fourth straight month of declines. well below expectations. imports also dropping slipping over 18%, which is a concern that maybe there isn't that much uptake when it comes to the consumer in china. carolyn? >> meanwhile, the nation's
oldest investment bank cicc is trading above the initial price. it comes after china's regulators said it will lift the ban on ipos, a sign of confidence. let's check in on how the shanghai markets responded to all of this. a lot of news to contend with. sri? >> yeah, carolyn, it was a day of divergence this monday in the asian markets. on the one hand on the negative side of the ledger you had the payrolls number friday knocking it out of the park. fed fund futures implying a 70% probability that the fed will move in december. so that smooths a fair few markets especially the move vulnerable sovereigns like indonesia and malaysia. on the other side of the ledger you have 2 1/2 month highs for the japanese equities and mainland equities. they referenced the headline there that the trade data over the weekend was pretty disappointing, especially on the external side, but we have
stunning debut from cicc and the hong kong market and we have the regulator lifting the ban on ipos. so that really provided quite a lot of momentum to the financials, to the brokerages and to the banks and that lifted sentiment in mainland equities. we're back in bull target for the shanghai composite. >> all of a sudden we're up 20% for the bottom lows. sri, good to see you in singapore. let's talk about fed talk. san francisco fed president john williams says that now the u.s. is closing in on full employment. yes, we do have the jobless rate down to 5% on friday. inflation likely to rise to target levels. he says the next step should be to start gradually raising rates. speaking in arizona, williams says that it makes sense and asked by a reporter whether he's leaning towards a december move, williams declined to say adding that he expects a lot of data between now and then.
but following the really strong and surprised job data that we got on friday, investment banks have been racheting up their expectations updating their calls on when that rate hike is going to take place. goldman sachs expects the fed to move in december and that any data between now and then will determine the future path of rate hikes rather than the initial hike itself. citi saying december's quote is all but certain at this point and barclays is moving its call forward to december citing the payrolls data, lower uncertainty and changes when it comes to fmoc communication. let's see what the markets think and what investors think. anthony chan joining us. do you agree with a lot of calls out there? december is all but certain at this point. >> i think that december now has a probability in our view of more than 80% probability that the federal reserve will move. you really have to see a disastrous employment report
ahead of the next fmoc meeting at the middle of the month for the if he had rool reserve to change its mind. you said the shanghai composite index is in positive territory, sharply over 20% from the lows. that was clearly a concern in september. it is not a concern right now so when you look around it's very difficult to find things that would suggest that the federal reserve should pause. the final point i would make is that wages were something that was concerning people. now the hourly average earnings are rising. more than 2/3 of the costs of providing a good or service or labor cost, so it's just a matter of time before that starts to spill over into general prices. >> let's talk about how expensive the market is or whether it's still cheap in your view because remember warren buffet, he says if the fed isn't hiking interest rates, stocks are cheap. if they are, stocks are expensive. your view? >> well, given the fact that the federal reserve is going to move at a snail's pace, i am not really concerned with the federal reserve raising rates. in fact, historically when the
federal reserve raises rates primarily because the economy is improving, rather than trying to catch up to rising inflation expectations. the equity market a year and two years later does better. the way i measure that is by looking at changes in the feds fund rate compared to what the changes are in the consumer price rate. i think very few people would argue that the changes in the fed fund are changing. in this case it would mean that the federal reserve is raising rates not because of inflation trying to slow the economy but rather reflecting the fact that economy is improving. >> anthony, a lot of people are arguing that we're seeing tightening through the higher dollar exchange rate. that means we don't need any additional tightening by the fed in december. what's your view? >> i think that you're absolutely spot on. the strengthening effects of the dollar are, in fact, doing some of the fed's job. that's precisely why the federal reserve is going to move at a snail's pace. rather than raising rates
perhaps at every meeting or even more aggressively, the federal reserve probably does it very, very slowly. i expect that if the federal reserve raises rates in december, which i expect, next year we're probably not likely to see more than half of a percent or 3/4 of a percent in total increases in the feds fund rate. as the economy continues to get better and as the consumer price index, for example, starts to move, i think by the end of the year to somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5 to 2% on a year-over-year basis and yet the fed raises rates slowly precisely because the effects of a slower dollar will obviate the move. >> the case for december, the probability is at around 80%. what, if anything, would dissuade the fed from hiking in december? would it be about jobs report? what would it be? would it be volatility in the markets? >> i think that all of the above if they become really serious could, in fact, derail the
markets. you have to think about what prevented the federal reserve from raising rates in september. it certainly was global market -- global financial market and stability. what was going on in china certainly was weighing in. we also saw that in the u.s. the equity market was a bit nervous. so there's a confluence of events. right now you have wages starting to rise, you have employment at very high levels. even that so-called scary unemployment rate, namely the u 6 unemployment rate that a lot of people like to point to, even that number is going down. that number is at one of the lowest levels we've seen in seven years coming down to 9.8%. short answer to the question is we need to see global financial market or stability or you need to see an absolutely disastrous employment rate which i define as a number significantly south of 150,000 on payrolls and for the average hourly earnings gains completely disappear as you move into december, which i don't expect. >> all right.
noted. anthony, thank you so much for that. anthony chen, chief economist at chase. after multiple allegations that presidential hopeful ben carson has embellished stories of his past, dr. carson went on the offensive speak to go cnbc's chris jansing about calling the media out. >> i expect to be vetted. you said this 30 years ago, you said this 20 years ago, this didn't exist, this didn't exist. you know, i have not seen that with anyone else. if you can show me where that's happened with someone else, i will take that statement back. >> i think almost every person who has been president -- >> not like -- no, not like this. i have never seen this before and many other people who are politically experienced tell me they've never seen it before either. >> you don't think that bill clinton or the president with his birth certificate, people who still refuse to believe -- >> no, not like this.
not even close. >> meanwhile, republican presidential front-runner donald trump questioned the voracity of carson's anecdotes. appearing on "meet the press" sunday morning, trump told chuck todd that carson has some explaining to do. >> when he writes that he has pathological disease in a book. he obviously wrote this book prior to thinking about running for office, i assume. he said he has pathological disease. >> you don't believe him? you don't believe him, do you? >> if you have pathological disease, that's a problem. he wrote it, i didn't write it. he's going to have to explain a lot of things away. >> well, the donald, he had a very busy weekend. the night before appearing on "meet the press." he helped nbc's "saturday night live" jump to the highest overnight rating since 2012. the decision to allow him to host the show led to protests due to republican presidential candidates, his controversial comments on ethnic minorities. latino activists even offered $5,000 for anyone who heckled
the billionaire businessman during the live show. trump touched on this controversy during his opening monolog with a little help from comedian larry david. >> and we're going to have a lot of fun tonight. >> you're a racist. >> who the hell is -- i knew this was going to happen. who is that? >> trump's a racist. >> it's larry david. what are you doing, larry? >> i heard if i yelled that they'd give me $5,000. >> as a businessman, i can fully respect that. >> actually -- >> the reviews weren't that great, were they? because "the new york times" television critic, he said viewers tuned in to see a joyless, unfunny show. it played like a hostage video. >> he only had 12 minutes on the show. >> that's not much. >> no, that's not much. some of the clips which i did
see which we'll run later on, my favorite is coming up. we'll touch on that with ben white. 9 million viewers tuned in. 9 million. that's the highest this year. higher than last years and the most since 2012. let's talk about wall street. you know, as donald trump said as a businessman i can fully respect that. well, wall street bonuses, speaking of money, are expected to drop some 5 to 10% this year according to a new report being brought forward by compensation consulting firm johnson associates. apparently according to them it's the first year since 2011 that bonuses for the entire industry are expected to decline. global market turmoil has hurt returns for many money managers and hedge funds. that's forcing some companies to delay their ipos, affecting pay for bankers that underwrite those deals and bonuses for fixed income traders are expected to drop as banks deal with new regulations, carolin.
credit suisse may cut bonuses by 60%. this giant is aiming to write down assets. this as reports suggest credit suisse could see significant impairment charges in the fourth quarter. it would be in accordance with rules set by the swiss financial authorities. credit suisse is one story. in terms of the u.s. banks and the cuts and bonuses that we're expected to see there, wow, that would be a big hit for many of the bankers the first time in many years we've seen bonuses decline. if you work in certain industries, if you work in mna, private equity, you've done pretty well this year. we've had a bumper year for mna. they're expect the to see their bonus up by 10, 15%. >> second year in a row it's a windfall for the mna bankers. in this day and age when we're talking about 12,000 job cuts,
15,000 and deutsche bank, you know, 30,000 jobs being slashed, you know, shouldn't we be lucky to have jobs in a shrinking financial industry? >> it's true. once again i would come back to the point that bonuses make up a huge part of the compensation. for many of these bankers always have done. so now a large part of the bonus, first of all, is deferred since the new rules set in. and then if you're going to see that bonus cut, what's actually your incentive to go into financial services to go into banking? >> i don't know. i always see the cup as being half full. if you have a job, that's a good thing. let's give you a rundown of what to watch for on this monday on this trading day. no economic data today believe it or not. look out for reports. retail sales, import prices and inflation. when it comes to fed speak, boston fed president speaks this afternoon. when it comes to earnings, we
fed's john williams says a rate hike makes sense following friday's strong numbers. a $23 billion timber giant purchased more and bonuses could fall on wall street for the first time since 2011. a canadian pacific railway train has derailed in wisconsin on sunday spilling less than 1,000 gallons of crude oil. now residents in the area, they have been asked to evacuate their homes. canadian pacific said the leaking car has been sealed and no oil has reached the water way. the incident comes after another freight train derailment in the state on saturday spilling thousands of gallons of ethanol. bnsf was working to transfer the ethanol and get the cars back on the tracks.
apache is rejecting an approach for an unidentified party. they sent a letter to apache in the past few weeks. last week apache reporting a smaller than expected loss and boosted the forecast. apache shares have been down more than 50% since the peak in june. oil prices have been crashed and have been crashing. weyerhaeuser is going to buy plumb creek timber for $8.4 billion. they will manage 13 million acres. they will get a 21% premium to friday's closing price. once the deal actually closes, the company will launch a $2.5 billion stock buy back to offer an exit option.
weyerhaeuser and plumb creek, if we can bring up the boards, they're up some 14, 15% or so. >> meantime, intercontinental hotel group said it is not considering a sale or merger of the company. they suggest that the hotel operator was exploring its options. they own holiday inn or crown plaza. they're up by 4% in u.k. trade. they've gained recently on rumors of a deal. sabmiller is preparing to sell its u.s. business for more than $10 billion this week. that's according to a report in the sunday times. the british brewer would sell its 58% stake in miller coors to join molson coors in order to help ab earn regulator's approval. both deals are expected to be completed on wednesday. >> we'll see. still to come on the program on "worldwide exchange", we're live in dubai for the air show
less security in the skies. the big three careers in the u.s. are opposing this. they get unfair subsidies as opposed to us. >> reporter: that's exactly right, susan. essentially what we've heard over the last 48 hours is a continuation of this war of words between the mid east carriers and the u.s. carriers. the u.s. carriers accusing them of taking as much as $42 billion in subsidies since 2004. now for reaction on that, i spoke to the president of em merits airline. take a listen to what he had to say. >> we have almost exhausted ourselves in the explaining why we as emirates have not taken subsidies. we couldn't have been more transparent. for someone to keep banging on that particular drum is a complete waste of time. as far as open skies are concerned, for me i'm a
multi-naturalist. i certainly believe that economies can only grow where he remove restrictions not just in the aviation side but every other business development. to shut down or selectively reduce open skies, whatever you think, whatever you would like to do has the unintended consequences. >> reporter: now in the american south we would say those fighting words. listen to what the ceo of qatar airways had to say. >> this is always a story of crying wolf. they are afraid of competition. i have repeated this many times and i just do not want to dwell upon it. the only thing is they cannot stand up and be counted like we do. we give them a very tough competition. we give their customers a very good value for their money. we have product that is of a very high standard and at the same time fortunately we do not
have unions who control how we run our business. as simple as that. >> reporter: so the ceo of qatar airways as well as tim clark, they're refusing to back down here. as you can hear behind me, this air show is just heating up. >> how appropriate, the roar of the thunder from the big jets. thank you so much. hadley gamble live from dubai. we're going to go to break here. still to come on the program, "saturday night live" ratings turn up as trump turns up. donald trump making an appearance. we'll take a look at what he got up to. we'll leave you with a look at how futures are trading ahead of the open on wall street today. when the flu hits, it's a really big deal. the aches. the chills. the fever. an even bigger deal? everything you miss out on... family pizza night. the big game. or date night. why lose out to the flu any longer than you have to? prescription tamiflu can help you get better 1.3 days faster.
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hello, everyone. good monday morning. welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm susan li. >> i'm carolyn roth. the fed says they will bring forward the rate expectations in december. putting pen to paper. plumb krieg is being bought for $8.4 billion. that will create a deal of a timber giant owning 13 million acres of u.s. forestry.
competency bonuses can fall for the first time since 2011. the best night for "saturday night live", but one to forget for donald trump? critics slam his appearance amid calls by opposers to dump the trump. good monday morning. say what you will, but the donald, he is a ratings getter, isn't he? >> yes. >> 9 million people tuned in to "saturday night live." thank you so much for joining us. let's take a look at how markets are fairing ahead of the wall street open. six straight weeks of gains. longest winning streak for wall street since the end of 2014. let's check in on the implied open. we are below fair value today. the implied open for the s&p has us pricing in declines of 7 points. the dow jones industrial lower by 50 points. negative territory on concerns
be for more tightening from the federal returns. the print for the october jobs has shorted. looking at declines, cac 40, on a six-day winning streak, looks like that's coming to an end today. lower by half a percent. german dax declined by 1/3. the ftse 100 today, looks like we are looking at flat trade. now here's a look at the euro stocks 50. it's going along with the rest of the action that we've been seeing. yes, a minimal declines. i guess people are anticipating what can be the first rate hike from the fed. hence, we're looking at losses of around .4 or so. amid forecasts that dr. ben carson has embellished, he's accusing the media of unfairly signaling him out. >> i expect to be vetted, but being vetted and what is going
on with me, you said this 30 years ago, you said this 20 years ago, this didn't exist, this didn't exist. you know, i have not seen that with anyone else. if you can show me where that's happened with someone else, i will take that statement back. >> reporter: i think almost every person who has been president -- >> not -- no, not like this. i have never seen this before, and many other people who are politically experienced tell me they've never seen it before either. >> reporter: you don't think that bill clinton or the president with his birth certificate, people who still -- >> no, not like this. >> reporter: -- refuse to believe. >> not like this. >> donald trump questioned the voracity of his anecdotes. trump told nbc's chuck todd that carson has some explaining to do. >> when he writes that he has pathological disease in a book, he obviously wrote this book about thinking about running for office i assume.
he says he has pathological disease. >> you don't believe him? you don't believe him, do you? >> if he has pathological disease, that's a problem. he wrote it, i didn't write it. he has to explain a lot of things away. >> okay. well, trump had a very busy weekend. the night before appearing on "meet the press." he, of course, helped nbc's "saturday night live" jump to the highest ratings, highest overnight rating since 2012. now the decision to allow trump to host the show was controversial. led to protests due to the republican presidential candidates controversial comments on ethnic minorities. latino activists offered $5,000 for anyone who heckled the billionaire businessman on the program. trump touched on this with a little help from comedian larry david. >> and we're going to have a lot of fun tonight. >> you're a racist. >> who the hell is -- oh, i knew this was going to happen. who is that? >> trump's a racist.
>> larry david. what are you doing, larry? >> i heard if i yelled that they'd give me $5,000. >> as a businessman, i can fully respect that. >> well, say what you will, but the donald, he brought in the rating, 9 million people tuned in which is the highest for snl in close to three years. ben white is with us bright and early. did you manage to catch snl this weekend? >> you know, i'm an old guy so i had to dvr it. yes, i did watch it. i didn't think he was particularly funny. i thought larry david was the funniest moment. >> let me show you my favorite moment. you tell me what you think, ben. i'm from toronto, it's drake from t.o. they did the hotline bling.
i didn't know that the donald had any moves. but, yeah, there you go. >> that was one of his better moments. he's a very self-conscious guy and here you see him actually losing his self consciousness and dancing like drake which is pretty funny. i don't know if there are any high points beyond that. i think the funniest part might have been the drunk uncle on weekend update. this is a person mocking trump supporters. i love this guy, he's the greatest guy ever. he wants to deport all the immigrants. i don't know that he came across particularly well in the snl appearance. there weren't a whole lot of laugh lines. his daughter came on. nobody noticed when ivanka came on. good for ratings, good for nbc. was it good for donald trump? i don't think so. >> i was going to ask you if you have a hotline bling shimmy somewhere in the ben white catalog but, yeah -- >> larry david.
>> we'll talk about that later. okay. so you don't think the whole 12 minutes to 9 million people helped donald trump at all? you know, doesn't it show him in a more human light, something in a more radical way? >> yeah. he just wasn't very funny. the whole problem with trump is people think his candidacy is a joke and an exercise in pr and brand building. this appearance didn't do anything to change that. he sort of seemed like a joke. that thing in the oval office where he was talking about a gold-plated washington monument, you know, he's talking about tweeting out laws saying they're huge. this is breaking news. this is going to remind people that some of the stuff he says is pretty ridiculous, like getting mexico to pay for a wall to block the border with mexico. he's making fun of stuff 245 actually is kind of a joke to begin with. does that help him? i don't know. the people that tune in to snl tend to be more left wing, more diverse, younger crowd. maybe he turned some of those
people towards him. my guess is they were laughing at him. >> ben, we have to talk about the other ben. ben carson. >> yes. >> do you actually think that he's going to have to drop out of the race because of those inconsistencies? >> yeah, i don't think so. unless there is a whole lot more that comes to light that he made up in this book, and that may happen. it's sort of stacking up tai by day, the stuff in the book that doesn't seem to have actually happened or not have happened as he said it happened. beating up on the media is a time honored tradition, particularly in republican primaries. he's pretty skillfully turned this into an evil liberal media story. republican primary voters eat that stuff up and they're angry at the press for pressing ben carson. it's kind of silly for him to say that other candidates don't get scrutiny. we're talking about marco rubio's credit cards. every bit of bill clinton's dirty laundry was gone through. republican primary voters hate the press and media.
they love it when people beat up on us. >> ben, i follow you on twitter. from what i see one of your tweets on -- >> right back among you. >> among many of your twitter fans, ben. on november 6th you said carson is done. are you saying he's not done just yet? >> yeah. i mean, i think he's ultimately done. he's not going to get the republican nomination. i still think marco rubio is more likely. i thought when this story first came out that he did not actually have this full scholarship to west point, that it might lead him to get out of the race. he's since tried to say that it was a verbal offer even though the meeting with general wes merely, ora moorley, he might survive that. there are other things that he may survive. it may not drive him immediately from the race. i think long term he does not have what it takes to become the republican nominee. he doesn't have the policy chops. he doesn't have the experience. this initial set of revelations
in the book doesn't appear to be true. i do think he's done within a couple of months. he may do well in iowa but i do not think he will be the republican nominee. he has been effective in saying this is a liberal media bias. >> of course. we've heard that. you don't have a little bit of hotline bling new today? there you go. works for me. that looks as good as donald thank you so much. ben white, chief economic correspondent of politico. i was looking at ocd flashes. the ocd seeing china growth slowing to 6.5 in 2016. 6.2% in 2017. would be a little bit more of a slowdown. for the u.s., they see growth at 2.4% in 2015. let me give you the figure for 2016. that should be at 2.5%. really, a tiny bit of an acceleration for the global economy overall.
they see global trade slow down and trimming their growth outlook once again. now u.s. president barack obama is set to meet with israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu today for the first time since the u.s. agreed on a nuclear deal with iran. let's get out to nbc news. tracie potts has more from washington and a relationship between the two. tracie, it's been very strained. >> reporter: yeah, it has not been the smoothest relationship of late, especially after netanyahu came here to capitol hill last march and spoke directly with congress in opposition of this iran nuclear deal that the president was pushing. this is the first time they've sat down together since that deal went through. so israel wants a couple of things. still very much opposed to this. they want to know how it's going to roll out. how is it going to be implemented. they're asking for a tinier aid package, more than we're giving them. $5 billion a year for military aid from the united states.
on the military side, president obama will continue to push for two-state solution between israel and the palestinians, especially with increasing violence between them over the last month or so. although he's admitted and others in his administration have admitted that this is probably not going to happen during his administration. so, peace in the middle east, the two-state solution. the iran nuclear deal, syria and how to deal with that, all of it likely on the table when president obama and netanyahu sit down. >> tracie potts from washington. we're going to go to break here on "worldwide exchange." still to go on the program, it's been a chaotic year for the markets. that's led to added stress as well as lower bonus checks for wall street traders. we'll talk through declining bonuses after this.
we're just weeks away from bonus season on wall street. reports suggest that traders shouldn't be too excited. let's get out to cnbc headquarters with landon dowdy. >> good morning. bankers are seeing many signs their bonuses aren't going to recover much any time soon. an annual report being released today by compensation consulting firm johnson associates expects
bonuses to drop 5 to 10% this year. the last time year end payouts dropped across the industry was 2011. fixed income traders will see the biggest decline down 10 to 20%. bankers who manage stock and bond sales could see it fall 5 to 20%. hedge funds could pay out 5 to 15% less. there are some bright spots that private equity firms could lift bonuses for the fourth straight year. >> some companies are delaying ipo plans which affects pay for investment bankers who underwrite the offerings. they're dialing dealing with regulations. they're hoping that they will return to profitable levels. they expect it to go into 2016. the financial industry says the average bonus last year was
$172,960. in recent years the european ba bank. deutsche bank's new ceo plans to cut 35,000 jobs over the next two years. nearly 1/4 of its work force. u.s. banks have for the most part fared better thanks to the stronger u.s. economy. goldman sachs and morgan stanley reported disappointing earnings. they say these companies will have to consider significantly cutting costs. >> landon, thank you. 007 had a license to kill at the box office this weekend. latest bond film "spectre" took out the market with an estimated of $73 million. it's the second highest debut for bond behind "skyfall" back in 2012 which also stars daniel craig. "spectre" has taken in $223 million. they opted for lighter fare.
the "peanuts" movie came in at a strong second with $45 million. big question, have you seen 007? >> i haven't. i haven't. don't you think it's a bit concerning they're behind "skyfall" at this point which raked in over a billion dollars. >> maybe. that was a high bar. daniel craig, last one as 007. you have to set the bar high. let's have a video when it comes to snap chat closing the gap with facebook in the battle for people's eyes. the ft, financial times, saying the number of videos on the app has tripled since may to 6 billion. facebook says it has 8 billion daily video views which has doubled since april of this year. unlike facebook though, all snap chat's views are on smart phones. last month snap chat launched a new ad letting sponsors add digital stickers in order to
let's look at the intel sunday games. we have the broncos now defeated. 7-1. finishing off their perfect record. also, the philadelphia eagles rushing for over 170 yards and wide receiver jordan matthews hauling in the 41-yard game-winning touchdown in overtime as the eagles top the dallas cowboys, 33-27. cowboys wide receiver dez bryant had 104 receiving yards and a leaping touchdown catch after missing several games with an
injured foot. kicker dan bailey forcing overtime. the 44-yard field goal. the eagles moved to 4-4. the cowboys drop to 2-6 with their sixth loss in a row. quick check of the markets this morning, european markets looking mixed. we're seeing the ftse 100 outperform on the back of financials. the car sector is pushing lower. xetra dax as a result slumping -- not slumping but falling modestly by one quarter of 1%. >> six straight weeks of gains. that's the longest winning streak since the end of 2014. looks like we are below fair value. the implied open for s&p down 7 points. dow jones industrial is lower by 48 points. john williams says now that the u.s. is closing in on full em employment and inflation is
likely to rise, the next step should be to start gradually raising rates. asked by a reporter whether he's leaning towards a december move, williams declined to say adding he expects a lot of data between now and then. michael guerka, founder of brewen hills partner joins us. i'm not going to ask you if you watched snl. i assume you did. let's go back to the markets rather than the donald. have the markets priced in a rate hike in december? >> yeah, about three different times and then the market pulled it out and then we're right back to where we are. i think at least there were a couple of things that were really impressive to me on friday, and the first is in front of that payroll report release, about 20 seconds in front of it i noticed the british pound absolutely got crushed. there was such dollar strength in front of that release and then we saw kind of a lights out numbers as we saw it.
i think that was very indicative of how the dollar priced in where the fed is going to be. we're starting to see those rates come back a little in regards to sterling versus the dollar and the euro also, but i think those levels showed us at least that the u.s. dollar right now, the strength has really lasted throughout the summer and in face of what they thought was an impending move. that being said, i'm looking for the opposite as we wind back to the rest of the year and potential implementation in dollar weakness. >> michael, goldman sachs says we're going to be down 4% between now and year end. how do you see things playing out? >> well, i disagree with that. i still think that we hold 2100 in the s&p. i'm still very bullish the front end of the curve. for those same reasons i'm still bullish the s&p. i think you're going to see a year over year determination right now that the s&p exceeds most of everyone's beliefs at least where we were six months ago. i think the strength and the earnings behind us right now shows us the u.s. will continue
to be a global leader in equities. >> michael, can i come back to the dollar. you made a couple of interesting points there. we saw the incredible dollar strength on the back of payrolls after a seven-month high. we're pulling back a little bit this morning. do you think the divergent monetary policies, specifically when it comes to the boj, do you think that has further to run? do you think those expectations are going to be scaled back? positioning is at a two-month high for the dollar. is that the top? >> i think it's more the latter that you just referred to. clearly you're seeing the divergent policies and that's been implemented by, again, as an example, 157 in the sterling and almost getting ready to print 149 for the same reason as the euro gets down to 108 and we see a base there, i think the markets are really good at getting ahead of themselves and placing that in. i think what's going to happen is we'll see reversals as we get near the implementation state. right now it's more of a proxy on where we think the dollar
should be. i think it proved it months ago. >> treasury, the 10 year, 2.33%. the latest sprint. how high can it go by the end of the year? >> i think 245 becomes an upper band. 250 is way out of control. if you want to take it from a percentage standpoint, when we're printing 103, 106 up to 234, we're seeing, again, 10% moves in the treasury and considering as flat as we are from 2s out to 10s and even 30s, it seems to me the base up top is too far exceeded. >> michael, thumbs up, thumbs down, trump, snl? >> you know what, i thought it was as expected but you know what, his effort will never come close to topping yesterday, i'll say that. >> he's got some moves, i'll tell you that. michael, thank you so much. that does it for us on "worldwide exchange" on this monday. i thought that part was great. i liked the top line bling dance. >> all right.
that's it for today. i'm carolyn roth. >> i'm susan li. up next, u.s. "squawk box." [announcer] if the most challenging part of your day is the staying awake part... ( gunshot ) sleep train has your ticket to a better night's sleep. because when brands compete, you save during mattress price wars. and through veteran's day weekend, save up to $400 on beautyrest and posturepedic. get interest-free financing until 2019 on tempur-pedic. plus, helpful advice from the sleep experts. but mattress price wars and this special financing offer - ends sunday. - ♪ sleep train ♪ your ticket to a better night's sleep ♪
the bulls have been on a charge. they're on a six-week winning streak. this week's test, more earnings and even more fed speak. we've got a monday morning deal. weyerhaeuser is buying a timber buyer. the name is bond, james bond. the latest film in the spy series opening at the top of the weekend box office, but that 73 million for "spectre," that fell short of some industry estimates. it's monday, november 9th, 2015.
"squawk box" begins right now. live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning. welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin. becky's going to be back tomorrow. our guest host this hour is robert chaffee. he's the editor of fast company magazine. among the buzz stories this morning, there's a new report out that bonuses, it is not good news for the industry. overall compensation expected to drop for the first year since 2011. we'll have a lot of details on that. first, take a look at the markets this morning. look up to where we are. we'll see where we are in the u.s. equity futures. you're looking for down arrows. the dow looking like it will open down 50 points, nasdaq off