tv Squawk Alley CNBC November 9, 2015 11:00am-12:01pm EST
welcome for a monday. joining us, john ford, kayla and myself at post nine. the worst day for stocks since late september or so. dow's down about 161. of course, comes after that good will that came on the heels of friday's job's number. down almost 20 points to 2080. we're going to keep our eye on that. roger, good morning to you. >> great to be here. >> a lot to talk about. let's start with yahoo!. seeking some help on the organization front. cara swisher saying yahoo! has hired mckenzie to help decide which units to shutter, which to sell, which to invest in. also reportedly calling on top executives to make verbal or
written pledges to stay at the company. roger where in the narrative of a ceo's shelf life does this start to happen? when do you bring mckenzie in? >> the way i look at this, if you're an investor and you're sort of waking up on monday morning, asking yourself what news as a shareholder in yahoo! am i looking for, this would not be it. you know, i think that when, you know, each piece of that is a cause for alarm. obviously, when you're begging your executives to sign a -- some kind of loyalty oath, that's not good. and, you know, nobody brings mckenzie in because they've got the world, you know, in their hands. yahoo!'s situation i think has been very difficult for a decade. i mean, there's a classic problem. you see in management across the whole economy. where companies reach a certain scale and then they are convinced that when they want to
do something new, they can't invent it, they have to buy it. because it takes too long to create something from new. and they want to have immediate impact. and i think yahoo! has been a victim of this for at least a decade. and i think at this point there's nothing they can to salvage the situation. >> just for comparison, i was taking a look at apple's turnaround back in the late '90s. marissa's been in the ceo seat for almost 2 1/2 years now. at this point in steve jobs' tenure, what had they gotten on it? the i-mac, the titanium power book which really set the mold for not only apple's future laptops but arguably everybody elses. and i-tunes in 2001. yahoo! is nowhere in terms of transformative products, isn't that the issue? >> absolutely. i think it's this issue of the commitment to internal
development. apple basically said listen we're in such deep trouble we're not going to worry about what the outside world thinks. we're just going to innovate our way to success. they didn't talk about it much. there were no grand pronouncements. they didn't bring a consulting firm in to help them figure it out. they just went, wait a minute, we're in the technology business. the business of making things new, really compelling and different. the thing about yahoo!, they have scale. they have revenue. they have an opportunity to come back. what i think they are missing completely is the culture of innovation and that commitment to do things internally and make stuff that works really well. and now that alibaba is coming out, the thing that has protected them from having to do that, from having to bite the hard bullets that are, you know, part of doing a turnaround, those are gone. so i don't know if she's still got time or not. i do think the real problem here is the world's moved a long way
since yahoo! stopped being a market leader from a product point of view and i just don't see how they get it back. >> roger, we should note the company did allude to hiring a consulting firm in the third quarter of last year so conceivably this is something -- this turnaround has been something they've been working on for quite some time. it's more worrisome, the fact you need pledges from executives to stick around for chapter two of this company. do you think yahoo! needs to make a big splashy hire to show investors there's human capital back at the company that can actually continue what marissa and co. have started? >> i don't think so. they may do that in order to try to distract attention. what they need is a product people want to use that is going to create growth. i think what's missing in the world is we're at the wrong phase of the cycle. you can't just start things and know that they're going to work.
there's certain points in the technology cycle when consumers are open to new things. and we're coming off of one. the whole social cycle that created facebook and twitter and all the things we've seen since then. we're now at one of those points i think where, at least in yahoo!'s core markets, people have, you know, they found snap chat, they found instagram. and those things are growing like crazy. and yahoo! doesn't own anything that looks like that. to me, that makes the situation very, very difficult. i hope she pulls it off. i think yahoo!'s a cool brand and they still have time because they have scale and they have capital. but i don't think culturally speaking they have the right idea. and i've never heard of a company ever going to mckinsey and coming out with a better technology strategy. that's just not what mckinsey does. >> definitely a story we're going to watch going into the end of the year and beyond. next up, owner of tinder,
match.com and okay cupid releasing details of its planned ipo. the online dating giant hoping to raise more than 466 million. the range for $33.3 million, 12 to 14 a share. people starting to come to terms with just how big match is inside of iac. >> it really is unbelievable. i looked at the numbers when they first published, i went, oh, my god. barry dillard, from the beginning of the internet, has demonstrated, i think, a stock picking ability that is remarkable. if he were a fund, he'd be one of the most successful venture funds around web technologies. it really is impressive. when you have the market down as much as it's down today, i think a dating service, that's something to take people's mind off of a down market. from dilldillard's point of vie
this is a smart move. he's created something incredibly valuable. his stock did not create the scale of the match group. my sense is that over time, if the numbers are there, this going to turn out great for investors. >> yeah, naic's market cap a little more than $5 billion match groups market cap or eval cation -- >> 3 plus. >> $3 plus billion. it just goes to show how much you can invent a new brand if you invest in the right new products. match is 20 years old as a company. >> this is what yahoo! is supposed to be doing -- >> -- $888 million in revenue. that grew 11% in 2014. i guess the question is how much legs is that going to have? is it just a thing where it's
faddish in terms of how dating works? do they have to invent the next thing as well? in terms of a lot of the other valuations we see in this space, it doesn't look bad. >> i think you should assume they do have to do all those things. i think one of the things that differentiates iac from yahoo! is when they are in a category, they do keep doing the next thing. it really is an impressive thing. i do think yahoo! and mckinsey in this case could learn a lot from looking at what iac has done in this category, what they did before it in travel. when you do develop domain expertise, you're not supposed to sit on your laurals. you're supposed to create the thing that obsoletes whatever you're doing. >> remember yahoo! personals? me either. yeah hardly. >> meanwhile, shares of price line tumbling. despite some record bookings. company issued weaker than expected guidance for the current quarter.
also taking a swipe at airbnb for the first time, publishing figures to demonstrate it's built up as many as three times villas and apartments for rent. >> we have a great business and a differentiated product from airbnb. our product charges no fees to consumers. there's no back and forth in e-mail with the host. we host to show americans, who many may not know the brand booking.com, there's this fantastic offer many may not have discovered yet. >> all of this coalesces around three major players, airbnb, now this. >> i'm looking forward to william shatner doing advertisements for igloos and tree houses. i think they're doing a great job of using this difficult announcement to spread the word on something at least i was not even aware they did. and, you know, i think that the
dark cloud here is that there is -- the competition has obviously started to bump into each other in travel. there was a long time there where airbnb grew like crazy and nobody seemed to notice it because the economy was pretty strong. this announcement suggests, wait a minute, we've passed that point, now things are bumping into each other, they are going to have to compete. obviously, price line is in a great situation to compete. but the expectations, the stock, at least as of friday, were too high. now we get a chance to figure out what is the real growth rate here and what's that worth. this is obviously a market leader in a huge category. and i would anticipate that they'll figure something out. but it does suggest, to me at least, that valuations in the category are going to be under a little bit of pressure because it's no longer the open space that it was, say, a year or two ago. >> and this storm had been a rocket. >> a rocket, yeah. >> the key type of stock to be
exposed to currency issues. i mean, they were forecasting gross bookings to grow by 13% to 20% constant currency but just 1% to 8% in u.s. dollars. i mean, boy, that's a big delta when you're talking about the difference between when you're able to x out currency and not. but it's interesting, saying we have all this inventory so airbnb is not saying we're just as good as airbnb. i'm interested in how the story line plays out. it's like walmart saying, look at all this stuff we have to sell, just like amazon. >> it's a different experience, it's a different brand, right? airbnb has established a cultural model that people identify with. and manifestly booking.com in that space doesn't have it. to the extent people want igloos and tree houses, this whole ball game could change. >> apparently tree houses in costa rica, roger, that's where you find them. >> there again you got the
currency problem when you bring the money back into the states. >> roger, good to see you, we covered a lot of ground today. roger, thanks. >> take care. >> we want to get a check on the markets. currently, dow is down about 200 points. the dow had just gone positive for the year on friday following the better than expected jobs report. but as the market continues today, dow's again negative for the year. s&p traders are watching a brand between 2072 and 2076. there's also a big deal moving stocks this morning. weyerhaeuser buying plum creek timber. that's a different story. acquirers throughout the year
have been seeing it go up. the dow is currently down more than 2%, despite the fact that warren buffett is standing by his investment in the company. comments coming when they released earnings. ip ibm currently down 2.5%. >> yahoo! hiring mckinsey. kara's going to join us. plus, the ceo of take-two is going to join us on what he sees for the future of gaming. and the stars were out for the breakthrough prizes in mountain view, california, last night. everybody from the ceo of uber to actors. we're back in a minute. >> everyone wants to be in tech in hollywood. everyone is star struck when, you know, the twitter guys or the facebook people are in town. that's who everyone wants to meet. it runs on optimism. it's what sparks ideas.
the gaming landscape changed with the buyout of king digital last week. simon, strauss, good morning. >> thank you very much. strauss, how would you sum up the atmosphere in gaming at the moment? >> it's a great time to be in this business. it's really the only growth business in the entertainment industry. we have a lot of enthusiasm around next gen platforms and the enthusiasm around free to
play as well. >> explain that. >> the most recent acquisition by activision of king digital. >> how did you feel that was driven? what does that tell us about the industry overall? >> i think it says the industry is now embracing free to play as a business model. $6 billion is a big hug. >> strauss, looking at king getting taken out, looking at zinga, which was supposed to disrupt everybody. a lot of your stocks sold off as they were getting a big valuation early on. what's the takeaway about social gaming and these companies that were supposed to do it better than you? >> i think the takeaway is there is a big market out there. that's the good news. the other news is that replicating your hits is challenging. that the hit ratio associated with the free to play business is meaningfully lower than the rest of the entertainment business at large and specifically the interactive entertainment business. ho our hit ratio, it's high, because we're blessed with high quality, is in the 80% range.
>> you don't have grand theft auto this holiday season. >> well, we do in a way, right? grand theft auto online continues to perform. >> which was my next question. no, we don't have our biggest hits this year, but this move to digital and the idea there are add-ons. this is where being a manager really comes into its own if you're going to do this job well. what are you actually doing to augment that, that branding? do you actually make money out of it? >> the best news about the transformation of our enterprise has been this creation of recurrent consumer spending out of ongoing engagement. the way we approach matters in this business is first worry about consumers, monization, second. the idea that just five years ago it was a big release, followed by dead time, followed by a business where we have a big release, followed by ongoing engagement turned into profits. that's a much more exciting
enterprise. >> grand theft auto, there are new vehicles you can upload, various additions. but they're all free, correct? >> all free so far. the theory is first and foremost delight consumers. don't try to pick consumer's pockets. if you delight them and keep them engaged, they'll spend money in the game in virtual currency. >> is there a wall to that? can you have grand theft auto 25? i mean, we're doing our best with fast and furious. but how long can a franchise last? >> we have 11 franchises at the company that have sold over 5 million units in an individual release. our goal is to be very judicious and mindful about bringing out sequels when they're ready and when they're incredibly high quality. that is not annualized except for our sports titles. our goal is to create permanent franchises. that's pretty lofty goal but that is our goal. we do think james bond has been around for, what, almost 70
years? >> the big media conglomerates don't actively buy your stock. or people like you in general. i wonder if technology will do that moving forward. when you look for example at the development of virtual reality. when they have to put that hardware out there. whether they will need guys like you supplying the content behind it. >> some of the big diversified media companies are great at interactive entertainment. warner bros. has done a wonderful job. others are less exposed to the space. over time, given that this cohort continues to grow, our median age of one of our consumers is 37. it's hard to imagine that big diversified companies won't be exposed to interactive entertainment. >> i have to imagine a lot of the other companies would look at this and find it incredibly lucrative. your market half is about half of what king went for. i wonder at what point do you think being a part of a larger
distributor would have its benefits? >> we're beyond critical mass. we have the ability. to do anything a larger enterprise can do. we can be nimble because we're still smaller. with $1.3 billion in revenue, over $1 billion of cash on our balance sheet. we're not limited by our balance sheet. we're limited by our creativity. our imagination. our desire to succeed. those are our limiting factors. we try to eliminate those as much as possible. >> we could talk forever, but we have breaking news to get to. thank you very much for coming in. >> sue herrera. >> the university of missouri president tim wolfe is resigning. this following allegations the university and specifically the allegations lodged against mr. wolfe. that the allegations were the university was ignoring racial tensions and incidents on campus. mr. wolfe says it is the right
decision, the right thing to do. he says the frustration and anger he sees is clear and he doesn't doubt it for a second. he said, quote, i take full responsibility for inaction, end quote. so wolfe resigning as the president of the university of missouri system. kayla, back to you. >> thanks, sue. john, your thoughts? >> this is big, because he was caught on camera by students, at least from their perspective, seeming to blame these minority students for -- i forget what the term was they used. something like institutional racism. so it's similar in a way to this trend of catching authorities with your smart phone doing something that can come back to haunt them later. that was something that i saw online. of course the football team kind of going on strike and pressure from students and technology seem to have led to this. >> we'll continue to watch what happens. big story in the world of academia. up next, catching up to
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in case you missed it, social media company snap chat is catching up to facebook in video views. has reached 6 billion views per day. up from 2 million back in april. all this according to "the financial times." that number trails facebook's 8 billion daily views which facebook disclosed during its earnings last week. snap chat confirmed the figure but declined to comment further. snap chat did turn down a $3 billion buyout offer from facebook a couple years ago. recent reports and our reporting has pegged snap chat's valuation after its most recent fund-raising round at $16 billion. john, it's pretty incredible to see snap chat tripling its video views from april.
the first time facebook doubled its views. >> video view is not a video view is not a video view. some companies count it as a fraction of the second, as snap chat does. youtube standard is even longer. so not exactly apples to apples but still impressive. >> europe's going to close in less than two minutes. the day over there has deteriorated much as it has here. simon is going to wrap that up. >> you very accurately described why europe is down to negative territory. we were slightly lower a few hours ago but we accelerated that decline. there are political stories that may dominate during the course of the week. in portugal, down almost 4%. over the weekend, you may have read the four socialist groupings in portugal have come together to oust this man, petro quolo who was sworn in after winning the october 4th election without actually a majority to
govern. the socialists are less market friendly. they want to reverse salary and pension cuts. some of the communists would like to restructure the debt. so on and so forth. it's not immediately obvious what will happen tomorrow when they have this vote in the lisbon parliament. portugal is clearly in play and the market is reacting. meantime, let me take you to brussels. where eurozone finance ministers are meeting. and it would appear they are now prepared to start withholding cash to greece because it is not meeting what they call the milestones. the 50 measures they have to pass in order to be in sympathy with the previous agreements. specifically, there's a problem with people not having their houses repossessed when they don't pay their mortgages in greece. the bigger question is whether the bank recapizations can go through. we'll watch that during the course of the week again there. the deadline is wednesday. let me just show you some of the movers we have on the session.
tullow oil is a part investor of african oil which is selling assets. renault's lower. continental, is the big tiremaker in germany. the winter has been warmer at the start. they also have problems in china. that stock down 5%. guys, back to you. >> thank you very much. when we come back, he says alibaba will generate $12 billion this wednesday on singles day. but what if you could see more of what you wanted to know? with fidelity's new active trader pro investing platform, the information that's important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. it's your idea
welcome back, everybody. i'm sue hererra. we want to bring you up to date. tim wolfe, who is the -- or was the university of missouri's system president, has resigned, amid allegations that the university and mr. wolfe specifically ignored racial incidents on campus. in addition to that, mr. wolfe says his resignation is effective immediately. the board has not named a successor. the board is, however, meeting at this however, and given the resignation, the likelihood is they will have at least a short list of people to replace him. he says he takes full responsibility for the inaction and is urging everyone at this
point to use his particular situation and resignation as a moment to reflect on the culture and the atmosphere on the campus at the university of missouri. it was a special meeting of the university system's governing body that preceded that. that meeting is still going on. but tim wolfe has resigned. the complaints came to a head over the weekend when at least 30 black football players announced they would not participate in team activities until mr. wolfe was removed or stepped down. now, that is exactly what has happened. >> quite a story, appreciate you keeping on top of it. just friday night, students caught him on cell phone camera, asking him to give his definition of systemic oppression, and some would say he fumbled that answer. now we have this today. moving on, alibaba's largest online shopping event is coming up as the company geerps up for
singles day. our next guest says it could generate as many as $12 billion from the singles day event this year. joining us is bob peck, lead internet analyst at suntrust. bob, how important is singles day within the context of alibaba at large because we had these concerns about growth of the economy in china in general. alibaba was down. then they had a good earnings report. does singles day really matter that much or has it become an anomaly, sitting there in the middle of the year? >> a couple things there. so, one that $12 billion would represent almost 30% growth over the $9 billion last year. that's off a tough comp because last year grew 60%. when you're try and scale that versus other events, this $12 billion is four times the size of u.s. cyber monday. the real key, why it's such a different time of year, the
first time they really pushed hard globally with 100 new strategic partners, 5,000 overseas brands. they're going to ship these in one day. it is sort a seminal event. >> if you didn't want to buy shares outright but you thought singles day was going to be a success, given they are increasingly focused on selling european and chinese brand to the u.s. consumer, which stocks would you buy in the u.s.? >> look at their announced strategic partners and see who's embracing this wholeheartedly. what's really important about this, this will probably flow through, which eliminates a lot of the nonauthentic concerns. so i think it really helps grow that and eliminate a lot of the brushing concerns and fake goods concerns. >> obviously it's come way off 57 back in late september.
i just wonder whether the stock has already discounted. the strength that you're discounting in the day? or is that about macro china data? how do you separate the two? >> a couple concern points that came out. we would love to see if that ends up getting circulated. i think you're also seeing clients very positive in that, a, the company's buying back its own shares. and, b, you have the cloud, now, growing over 100%. think about aws meant to amazon. the last, government regulators just said last week they're wishing alibaba luck with singles day. the fact you're getting that endorsement from the chinese government i think speaks vol e volumes. >> is singles day going to belong to alibaba for the foreseeable future? is singles day going to be an international event that other retailers are going to take more advantage of? >> i think so.
you've already seen jd participate in this as well. so i think you're going to see globally this start to grow across various retailers who engage -- people, consumers who are engaging at that time. >> what's the cost to margins? any time you're aggressively marking things down, obviously you take a hit on the bottom line. what's that cost this year? >> a lot of marking down -- remember, alibaba doesn't sell goods directly itself. it's the partners. they've been able to hold their margins. the margins around 50% or so. that's with instrumentally investing about 2% to 5%. so this should be a great boon for them. may see a little pressure on the margin but the goods themselves will be born by the retail partners. >> tell me what's the upside versus downside for this? if they do better than expected, is there a certain read-through for that? i assume if they do worse than expected, that could hurt them. >> the big read-through on the
upside is these large brands participating in this and then talking about how their sales were. remember, one of the big concerns of these nonauthentic goods and whether brands ultimately engage on the platform. if you see them engage and get strong, this could be the growth accelerator for them in that platform. >> all right, bob, some important perspective on singles day. thank you very much. don't miss our interview with alibaba, executive chairman jack ma, on singles day. that's coming up this wednesday. kara swisher says marissa mayer has hired mckinsey to re-evaluate a reorganization at yahoo!. first, rick santelli, what are you watching? >> you can't see right now, it's going to be after the break, i'm going to show you what's on the white board. we're going to do two things. we're going to talk about where 10-year note rates could go predicated on some of the extremes in 2015 and 2014. the other issue, we're all on
we'll debate that. let's get over to the cme group. rick santelli. >> good morning, carl. before we go on, i want to start a chart. you've seen this long-term chart of 10-year note yields. i want you to pay particular close attention to the far left, the extreme high yield, 262. and of course we're now comping back to july since we've been at these high yields. why is all that important? before you get into all this busy work, the chart you saw is basically here in blue. so 262. 917. we had three tops all very close in nature and also within a month of each other. two mid-june top charts at 248 and 247. july, 245. that's basically what we're comping to. we talked about the other side of the mountain. at some point, we have turned, okay. on the way up, we all know what happened. whether it was bibacks and takeovers.
we had beaterman beaterman beaterman on today. we could talk about all the complicated issues. brought up ben bernanke's book. those who defend the fed. in the end, it was the access to cheap capital that was one of the driving forces on the underpinnings of the finance side of the takeovers and buy backs. so where does that leave us? just on the surface, what isn't talked about much, is there's going to be a swath of america when rates go up that get higher income. then we have the cans and the can'ts. the people who have been able to get credit. do you think they're going to suffer by a small normalization of rates? i don't think so. they've had access to credit. what have they done with it? those who can't, well, they haven't been able to access in many areas. think mortgages here. due to some of the dodd/frank issues and the overreaction to what really was a government issue that fed into doing anything and everything and throwing the kitchen sink at the
part of the economy, the culture that provides funding for mortgages. now, were they complicity? yes, that's old news. the cans. well, auto loans have become the new house loans, have they not? if you look at some of the rates, the incentives, i remember in the '90s, it was the auto industry that set their own rate through incentives. don't see a quarter point affecting them much either. what it's going to affect and has affected is the notion that equities and buybacks are going to buy off. and all this is going to cause rates to go up. they have already. at the highest level at 10s and 30s since july. here's the final chapter to be written. it's really somewhat of a faux rally in terms of what's going on in the prices of treasuries. ultimately, they're going to throttle back. when we start moving equities down and the junk market takes a hit and all the issues come to
zimmer through the pot, ultimately, it's more about the ride and how much fortitude investors have to hang in that's going to be the big question. back to you. >> all right, thanks, rick. coming up, why silicon valley is the new hollywood for hollywood. cnbc was at the breakthrough prizes and caught up with heavyweights in tech and entertainment. sure, tv has evolved over the years.
i just topped off an investment call that the hedge fund manager is holding. he says that valiant pharmaceuticals, the embattled stock that has given his portfolio a battering as well as many others in the stock in recent weeks, is very likely soon to announce a replacement for the specialty pharmaceutical company that caused it some problems of late that it recently severed relationships with and may announce that tomorrow morning in a very recently scheduled 8:00 a.m. conference call. he said he couldn't be sure but that was his speculation. he also said that the stock had been really beaten down in recent weeks by unwarranted fear and panic. those were his words. he thinks it will return to what he regards as a more reasonable valuation, carl, once communications resume and the company goes through the step by step process of just releasing its usual financial filings.
he also spoke highly of their te determi dermotological product line. >> the stock has been ugly. >> it really has. there's absolutely been some fear and concern and potentially as well some real issues in the stock. >> kate kelly monitoring that call, thanks. tech execs and hollywood celebrities came together last night for the third annual breakthrough prices at the nasa ames research center in mountain view california. uber ceo was among the attendees. he spoke with us about what he was looking forward to. >> if you're in the business of innovation without people, without people doing the core foundational science, then you've run out. so of course we support it. we're also doing some of it too. so superexciting. >> a few of the stars from the hbo hit show silicon valley
spoke to us about some of the tech they hope students of today will become reality years from now. >> i just want a sphere that floats by my head that does everything i want it to. >> so a remote that's the shape of a ball. >> but it does everything. >> you control it with your mind? >> i control it with my mind. that's the key. i'll be like, i need my car. it brings my car. >> i would love, like -- >> phone calls -- >> a small platform that has two wheels on it that you can stand on it and it will take you places. >> we already have that. >> no, yeah, yeah, right. anyway, when that happens, it will be a different world. >> i change my mind. i don't want it to be sphere shaped, i want it to be cube shaped. >> we were just told by mark zuckerberg our show is too accurate. so you've got -- that's an exclusive. >> everyone wants to be in tech in hollywood. everyone is star struck when, you know, the twitter guys or the facebook people are in town. that's who everyone wants to meat. everyone wants to be ashton kucher in hollywood.
you know, i think that absolutely that is the new thing that everyone's interested in. i think the fact that on hbo, for example, silicon valley, not entourage, are the show a lot are watching, says a lot about that. >> it does bring to mind the story in the journal about bonuses. people going to silicon valley instead. that's a big reason why. >> the allure is high. the breakthrough prize, who's invested in it, mark zuckerberg, interesting, he said silicon valley is too accurate. interestingly. >> dow's down 235. we'll talk more about the sell-off after a break. ♪ today, we're seeing new technologies make healthcare more personal with patient-centric, digital innovations; from self-monitoring devices that can interpret personal data and enable targeted care, to cloud platforms that invite providers
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princeton securities here at post nine. you've been saying worst day since september 28. it has been a gilded existence pretty much since that time. >> absolutely. i think justifiably so. we had the much needed or much wanted correction by professional traders going way back into august. the market has seemed to recover from that. but i think what we're seeing today is a play out from the dollar and the central banks throughout the world, having effect in reprising some of the large companies that have that dollar exposure. again, i think a favorite area for investing, for those people who believe the united states will be the leader, will be the russell 2,000, those who don't have is the dollar exposure. >> interesting to see the fallout in turkey, mexico, south africa. we think about the fed hiking. there is really weakness as a domino effect elsewhere in the
world. how much will that come into play? >> i think what we're pricing -- i don't necessarily believe there's true weakness. what you're seeing is world economies performing less substantially than they have been. we're still talking about a china growth of over 5%. whether you're pricing 5% or 6%. it's still growth nonetheless. it's not at the acceleration rate we're used to. the united states economy is still improving. it's not the acceleration we would have liked to have seen standard coming out most of the recessions that we're in. so that all goes into the pricing of the stock market, if you will. but if you take a look at what's going on, particularly in the bond market, even though we're down 200 points. i think the real story, with rick san telethis morning, is the bond market, the action going on there. we're getting wagged by that, if you will, in this marketplace, the asset allocation model. >> a lot of people say that sell-off has a ways to go. >> the 5-year is really putting on a great demonstration today.
absolutely. i think the 10-year is well on its way to a three level. the whole point of this pricing. again, i'm of the school the fed missed their opportunity several months ago when they should have started letting rates naturalize. not tighten but naturalize. that is a effect of the market right now. i believe the fed actually forced investors to the sideline because if the federal reserve couldn't make up its mind, how do you expect the retail investor? >> we get retail sales on friday. a 70 degree day on a weekend can't help the retailers selling coats, selling snowsuits and the like. >> i was in the malls over the weekend. only because the woman i love loves to shop. >> oh, okay, okay. >> i follow behind. it's funny, you know, it's one of those things. the stores we usually go into were not crowded. and the last retail sales number that came out of the likes of victoria's secret, i could have told you victoria's secret numbers were going to be off the
charts because we stood in line to wait to buy the product that was -- >> say no more. >> okay. >> we had the discussion last week or the week before. a strong october. so strong, we wondered if it was a pull forward of seasonal strength in november and december. you think that's what's playing out to some degree? >> without a doubt, but i'm still -- very much believe the u.s. economy and the u.s. stock market will be higher and in better position in december than we are today. but that right now, that doesn't mean we're not going to see corrections or pullback, along the way. that will be a buying opportunity for long-term investors. traders are having a brutal time in this marketplace without a doubt. some of the standard, you know, the stocks actually held on okay early on today. most of them, from what i saw before i came on, seem to have given up some of that leadership. very focused market. again, you have to go back to the russell and the u.s. strel markets, if you will, if you're looking for top performing. it's going to be a market of stocks for those people who will
succeed rather than a stock market. >> ben's point is well taken when you look at the laggards on the dow, cat, microsoft, ibm, intel, big dollar plays as the dow tends to be populated by. let's get over to headquarters, scott wapner and the half. >> all right, guys, thanks so much. welcome to the halftime show. steve weiss here along with jim lavinthal, josh brown and pete nagarin. call of the day. someone on the street says the retailer target is a buy. the traders debate whether that call hits the bull's-eye or is just full of bull. yahoo!'s master plan. amidreports the company could soon shake up its business, investor eric jackson is with us. we begin with the markets. after six weeks of gains, stocks are selling off and selling off pretty hard at this hour. invests