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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  November 12, 2015 5:00am-6:01am EST

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welcome back. you're still watching worldwide exchange. >> these are your headlines from around the world. >> in our december monetary policy meeting we will reexamine the degree of monetary policy accommodati accommodation. >> well, mario draghi opens the door sending the euro lower with his view that inflation dynamic versus weakened. >> silicon valley show down. investors in paypal fret over reports that apple is developing
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a rival payment system that could be rolled out next year. >> laying down the law. activist investor bill ackman and valeant must face insider trading charges. >> under review, iac puts a offer on the table for angie's list sending shares in the company 11% higher in after hours trade. >> welcome back to the program. just looking at how the u.s. markets are setting themselves up for trade we have 4.5 hours to go before you get there. both see an opening slightly lower with nasdaq a little bit higher. the dow closing down by 56 points yesterday. setting itself up to snap it's six week winning streak. you have the s&p 500 on its 5th negative day in the past six
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sessions. 6 out of 10 in the s&p sessions finishing negative yesterday with energy leading the pact to the down side. a loss of almost 2% seen there. now when looking at our european markets we were called slightly lower. a couple of points lower most are hanging on to that trend. you have the cac and the ft ftse mib lower shy of 1% as well. we're seeing it taking place in our european stocks this morning. looking at commodities in brent in particular. flat to higher. $45.84 at the moment. over the past week we're off by close to 5% just so a lot of people looking very closely at the iea report. very close at some of the inventory data as well and of course also what the knock on impact is if we head toward a
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fed rate hiking cycle how that's going to impact the dollar which in-turn impacts brent as well and crude of course. when looking at the currency markets out there you have a lot of activity scene in the aussie dollar starting over here. higher by 1% or so. i don't know if you saw it but we had some very strong october jobs data. 58,600 new jobs in october. the forecast was for close to 15,000 which couldn't lead to the question that we might not see a cut from the reserve bank of australia. the euro dollar hanging on to that 107 level. we had mario draghi speaking earlier and indicating that he is leaving the door open for more action to happen in decembe december. but let's head out to sri in asia. >> yeah, those jobs numbers knocked it out of the part, didn't they? so men at work springs to mind
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if you remember the 80s as i did. i'm showing my age. anyway, let's take a look at the markets. aussie dollar higher today. up by well over 1% but we're off from the session highs. this is where we stand at the moment. 71.53. you're quite right. i don't think that in terms of the policy implications they'll start tightening. we're miles away from that scenario but they could be on hold for that much more longer. elsewhere, in terms of the equities market action, the hong kong index was higher as well today. up by 2.4%. that was largely thanks to the e-commerce firm at tencent reporting some very strong numbers after a singles day. so the chinese consumer is in good form. in term of the market action for the short-term it will come down to the fed. you have been talking about this with carolyn. we have a number of fed speakers
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including stanley fisher and the head mistress herself. so are their comments going to be consistent with what the market is now starting to price in carolyn? and that is december lift off? how hawkish or otherwise are they going to stand? back to you now. >> thank you for that. let's get back to the ecb. mario draghi surprised the market this morning with the strongest hit yet that the central bank could expand it's asset purchase program at its december meeting. >> we will closely monitor the risk to price stability and assess the strength and persistent of the factors that is lowering the return to inflation to levels below but close to 2%. at our december monetary policy meeting we will reexamine the degree of monetary policy accommodation. if we were to conclude that our medium term price stability
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objective is at risk we would act by using all the instruments available within our mandate to ensure that an appropriate degree of monetary accommodation is maintained. consistent with our forward guidance, the asset purchase program is considered to be a particularly powerful and flexible instrument. in fact, we always said that our purchases would run beyond end september 2016 in case we do not see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation that is consistent with our aim of achieving inflation rates below but close to 2% over the medium term. other instruments could also be activated to strengthen the impact of the purchase program if necessary. >> i want to bring you up to speed. just in the last few minutes draghi also said that a too long period of low rates provides
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fertile ground for financial stability problems. he added that the ecb has to monitor risk carefully and also said there is a recovery taking place in previously stressed countries in the euro zone. that recovery is slow. he said the ecb needs to be aware of risks through recovery through the emerging market slow down. by and large i'll actually really surprised that the ecb is giving us such a strong hint for its december movement and stimulus. the euro dollar exchange rate has dropped so much. it's dropped 5% over the last couple of weeks and at one point it was back below 107-on-the back of mario draghi's comments. that's effectively doing the job for the ecb. they would never admit that the euro dollar exchange rate is the policy target but that's one of the most, maybe the most important. >> absolutely. do you know what's interesting also about the financial stability comments that he was
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making indicating there could be a risk there? that's mirroring verbatim almost what they were saying just the other day as well. i think there was one woman actually in that group? continued low rates that they could create a significant risk to financial stability and they talked about it would be a threat to banks and ensurers if we had low rates for longer. so it's interesting to hear draghi saying the same thing as well. they know it's not sustainable in the long-term. >> certainly not. let's get to am news. interesting overnight. apple is reportedly in talks with u.s. banks to develop a person to person mobile payment service. reports say apple is in discussions with jp morgan, wells fargo and capital one but it's unclear whether they actually signed on. the service would let users transfer funds from their checking account and would be linked to apple pay.
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they could roll the service out sometime next year. quick check of apple shares and how they're trading. paypal off 2.3%. now we reached out to paypal. comment to cnbc. while we don't comment on rumors or speculation we welcome any development that encourages people that address the awkwardness of dealing with cash when paying friends or family back but they point out that their system is very much in use. our services work against operating systems as well as online. i'm sure they wouldn't love it if apple gets into the game and takes a slice of their pie. >> this is such a crowded market. i mean, paypal, google, snapchat, square, which we have been talking about possibly going public. hurry up before apple goes in and go public before. if you get rid of apple pay, though, then this might be a good alternative and that might be what they're trying to do because with apple pay, you can't pay each other. like i read i think a wall
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street journal article -- >> if you wanted to pay me for the coffee i bought you, you couldn't pay me. >> i can't. so thank you very much. >> no worries. >> that's why something like this or like an article said you want to pay the one that does your lawn mower every week, you can't do that either. >> this might be a good way of starting a new technology in a crowded market. >> yeah. >> you know it's almost black friday. >> almost. >> a couple of weeks. >> every time its black friday i go where did the year go? what happened. >> walmart unveiling it's black friday plans. the retailer will offer most of its door buster deals online and in stores for the first time but give online shoppers an early jump on sales. last year walmart stretched it's black friday deals but this year most will be rolled out at walmart.com at 3:00 a.m.
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thanksgiving day. >> have you bought anything. >> on black friday? >> yeah. >> no, i wouldn't do that. >> it used to be back in the day in denmark, many, many years ago it used to be quite a thing. you would go with your friends and get the latest sneakers or whatever, stuff like that. but now it feels like a lot of people want to avoid -- that's my idea of like -- >> now you're queuing online. you're waiting online and i hate that. i just hate waiting in that queue and you feel like you can never buy what you want. >> but for me it's almost, the argument, why would you want it necessarily just a couple of hours in advance if you can get it online a few hours later. >> you get the best deals. that's why. >> you're right. now novelty christmas sweaters, the ones you usually wear. >> the ones i wear outside of my job. >> they're designed to spread festive cheer but one of targets steins is sparking anger on social media apparently because
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the words ocd, obsessive christmas disorder are printed on the sweater. target is facing criticism for try trivializing obsessive compulsive order. >> in a previous life i worked in this arena but on the other hand, this is a light hearted joke, is it not? obsessive christmas disorder. >> it's a fine line, isn't it? >> it is. maybe they should stick to the reindeer sweaters. >> maybe they should do that. as we head to break, we have another break coming up. let's give you a run down, weekly jobless claims are out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. expect it to fall suggesting the u.s. jobs market recovery is
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gaining momentum this month. the federal budget statement is expected to see it widen in october. six fed officials are speaking today. report earnings before the opening bell while they are out after the close.
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welcome back. these are the headlines. diverging in december as the fed looks set to hike next month. mario draghi hints central bank could expand qe. apple and paypal go head to head as the iphone maker is in talks to develop a new mobile payment service and walmart unveils that it will offer it's black friday discounts online and in stores for the first time ever. >> hi, everybody. well, the u.k. brewer sab miller posted a jump in sales during the second quarter. those numbers coming just a day after rival ab inbev launched a formal $100 billion bid for the firm. the deal is still expected to face major regulatory hurdles, though. we have been looking at an impressive set of numbers from
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siemens. they announced a 3 billion euro share buy back program after beating forecast with 4th quarter numbers. they also hiked the full year dividend. the ceo of the company spoke first to cnbc after the release of the numbers and he warned that china could weigh on numbers over the next couple of quarters. >> we do see that the investment output in china has been down. there's a big opportunity in china still although the new normal may be something between 5 and 7% rather than double digit growth which we have seen in the past. >> german utility rwe said it will only just barely reach full year targets after posting a drop in nine months profits. the company is struggling with it's british arm and power which swung to a loss in the period. joining us now on the phone is the cfo at rwe. thank you for joining us. let's cut right to the chase. your rival is splitting up. if you don't get these issues in the u.k. and also the struggling german electricity market under
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control would that be a viable solution for you too? >> well, we always said that it is not our plan a but there may be external conditions which might make us consider it as a serious plan b and one of those is certainly the situation in the german conventional power generation, especially the no power prizes which increase pressure on that type of business although we would look for the other auctions. >> if you take a look at your share price, your shares have gotten hammered over the last nine months or so. you're down 50% or more year to date. in part because there's so much concern about the german decommissioning and you have set aside enough funds. as a cfo, i find it hard to believe that you wouldn't be worried about your share price.
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do you think that now some of those concerns have been put aside? >> well, i certainly share your observation and you could see that after these statements by the minister for the economy the share price recovered a bit but there's still many investors in the market. this was just an intermediate step toward the longer term solution on how to long-term finance and fund the exit. there's still a few more steps to be taken in the political process and until this is fully resolved there will be some sort of overhang on our share price. unfortunately, i'd like to of course see it go rather sooner than later. >> good morning. it's louisa. how big is client loss for you at the moment? i mean, you have lost 200,000 customers in britain over the first nine months. especially in the u.k. that the
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problems really are occurring for you. how are you going to be dealing with this in the future? >> well i think we have a tail of two different stories there. the one is what is happening in the u.k. this is clearly a significant operational challenge there which we need to sort out and we have dispatched a new operational board to sort these issues out and get the business back on track. in terms of the overall magnitude it's nothing which puts the whole group at risk but of course it's something that we need to get our hands arn. and the rest of our retail business on the continent we're not losing customers. quite the opposite, we're very successful there. our numbers are on the same level as last years numbers and this includes the hit we took in the u.s. the rest of the business must be
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running better than run the year before. >> how do you respond to critics that say i want to see a viable turn around plan? >> for the u.k. or for the company as a whole? >> for the u.k. in particular? >> yeah, well it's a fair question and we have said in the press conference a couple of minutes earlier that we present the overall picture on the u.k. with the year end numbers and this will also include the turnaround plan. the timetable until when we will have sorted those problems out. >> thank you very much for your time this morning. the cfo. now still to come here on worldwide exchange, bank bs ware. currency companies are out to
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woo your customers. that's the message from block chain's ceo. we'll be hearing from him after the break. hi watson. annabelle, your birthday is tomorrow. i'm turning seven. what did you ask for? a princess. and a pony. you like things that begin with p. i like pink frosting too. will you have a cake? yeah. i was too sick to have one last year. the data your doctor shared shows you are healthy. are you a doctor? no. i help doctors identify cancer treatments. i want to be a doctor someday. i can help with that too. watson, i like you.
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hi, everyone. welcome back. block chain technology could change the landscape of the financial industry. those aren't the words of a bitcoin enthusiast but were said
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at the boe open forum on wednesday. let's head back out to nancy at the tech conference. nothing slushy about it nancy. loads going on. >> that's right. a lot of innovation here. we're talking about 15,000 participants here with entrepreneurs and investors meeting and discussing the latest start ups in the strive for entrepreneurship in europe. one of the biggest topics is trying to embrace it as an opportunity. one space banks are trying to react to is the rise if bitcoin technology known as block chain. it's the technology that drives b b bitcoin but also has the ability to release a great deal more. joining me is the ceo of the largest bitcoin wallet. thank you for joining us. there's been so much hype, big buzz around the block chain itself and you're the world
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leader in the block chain wallet. i want to get to the uses in a minute but tell us about the opportunity here when we talk about banks a don'ting the technology and far reaching beyond bitcoin itself. >> an open protocol and it's efficient, it's fast, and it really enables you to jump the curve. enables you to jump a lot of legacy systems and migrate on to one open, secure and efficient platform. >> what does that look like in practical terms? if i want to adopt this technology, what can i put it to use for to help with costs. >> it would represent a radical change. bank versus been very closed. very sort of prop system driven. this is an open platform so this will be a radical departure for bank strategy but almost anything that a bank does today could be done on this protocol which means that the way the banks operate and systems work could be radic cli transformed and would be efficient and a lot more cost effective. >> have banks approached you in
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terms of how to use your technology and perhaps partnerships as well? >> sure. partly as a result of our leadership in the space and we have been approached by 100 banks at this point including most of the tier one banks. it's going to be a really long road. i think that the road to transformation for the big institutions is really political and i also think that the technology itself has growth to do as well. >> you say long road is that one year out, five years, ten years? >> i think it's like a four or five year road map so my guess is at least three years. >> let's talk about what block chain is best known for at the moment. it's a new york company and that's this wallet for bitcoin use. can you give us a better idea of how you intend to stay competitive given that you have quite a few competitors trying to contend for the leadership role in this space. >> yeah, core infrastructure platform and one of our most famous products is that wallet.
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today we have more wallet users than everyone else combined. it's a software wallet. it's simple to use. our differentiation is that it's a better mouse trap. a better, cleaner product and then the network effect. so you see our growth is similar to the growth of a messaging company. people start using bitcoin because a friend gets them into it. that will remain strong for us. >> that being said, do you forsee perhaps as you grow potential exit and ipo down the road or do you think you're more likely to be acquired by someone that wants to use the technology such as a bank? >> for us it's too early to tell. we have a lot of work to do and applications that need to be built so it will probably be at least three or four years before we're confronted with that question. >> and when we talk about the price of bitcoin we see a lot of volatile ti volatility in the price. >> it's a good indicator of the health of the overall ecosystem.
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you see a lot of poor infrastructure built and millions of users on board. financial institutions and insurers and consumers all over the world so i think the price rise reflects that positive market sentiment and it's good for our company. >> as in you benefit from the volatility. >> we don't benefit from the volatility. the volatility is a negative thing for us because people are using our platform to make payments so they don't want the underlying asset to be volatile but it's good in the sense that number one we need a higher market cap to facilitate more payments and it's a good positive overall sign for the ecosystem. >> there you have it. that's peter smith. the ceo of block chain. the largest wallet for bit coin but a lot of uses beyond the currency as well coming from block chain. back to you. >> thank you for that interview. still to come on the show, bill ackman's terrible year has just gotten even worse. details on his latest set back coming up. and we'll leave you with a look at how futures are trading ahead
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of the open on wall street and a softer start to the trading day. the dow jones off by 28 points. nasdaq off by 5. s&p 500 seen off by 4.5.
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>> welcome back. you're still watching worldwide exchan
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exchange. >> in our december monetary policy meeting we will examine the degree of monetary policy accommodation. >> mario draghi opens the door to further easing sending the euro lower with his view that inflation dynamics have weakened. >> investors in paypal fret over reports that am is developing a rival payment system that could be rolled out next year. >> laying down the law. u.s. judge saying now that activist investor bill ackman and valeant must face insider trading charges over their failed attempt to buy alergen. >> iac puts a $500 million on the table for angie's list sending shares in the company 11% higher in after hours trading. >> good morning, thank you for joining us here on the program. how are you? >> i'm good.
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busy morning this morning. surprising this market a little bit. we saw a dive in the euro and flip flopping in european stocks. >> we have the santa claus rally supposedly. >> supposedly. >> you have positioning already taking place. we're discussing whether or not the drop in the euro, initially maybe this is a trade put on. so much is already baked into these expectations. what will the next couple of hours bring? let's look at the u.s. futures? because we're a little bit lower. the implied open a little bit soft there. implied open off by 20 points or so. s&p 500, nasdaq also see a little bit of softness there. we have a few hours to go though. keeping in mind we saw a softer close in the u.s. yesterday and that's one of the reasons we saw europe this morning. just seeing our main european markets hanging on to the trend here throughout the morning. the ftse down by .5%.
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dax down by .5%. the cac and ftse mib off. the asian markets in the overnight session, the nikkei very flat at the moment. you have the shanghai composite up on the close by .5% and the s&p looking flat there. >> a u.s. judge says valeant and bill ackman must face a lawsuit accusing them of insider trading in allergan before the unsuccessful bid for them. by then, they had already built nearly 10% stake in allergan. investors claim they bought the shares knowing valeant was preparing it's bid that would go hostile. quick check off by 2.7% yesterday. they were down 6%.
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that means more bad news for billing ackman. they released the 3rd quarter performance and the flag ship fund is down 21% year to date. it's down nearly 2% already in november. the biggest drag on the fund in the quarter was it's positions in valeant which fell 5%. we saw him doubling down on the bet so apparently he still believes in the viability of the company but it's been such a tough year for that specific position. he lost so much money on it with all the questions around the financials around the company. about the drug prices. some of the practices. >> again, precisely. so he amassed a 9.7% stake in allergan on the side and then people said you knew what you were doing and there was insider trading involved like you said before the announcement of the failed takeover bid. they say there was no intent to defraud. important to say that. the case isn't settled yet.
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but they say they have reached no duties by sharing information before the announcement. >> but you have to wonder how long he holds on to that stake before he says i've had enough. i'm cutting my losses here but so far he has been backing the company. backed the ceo recently and bought more shares. >> also he's used to the heat being an activist investor as well. that's precisely, you know, you seek out opportunities and i'm not sure if that applies to this. our colleagues to talk to him quite a bit as well. definitely one worth keeping an eye on. moving on, iac interactive is making a more than $500 million takeover offer for angies list that would combine the consumer review site with internet
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brands. iac would pay $8.75 in cash and 10% premium to the closing price. they went public with the offer after meeting resistance for months. they're also saying it's willing to merge angie's list with it's home advise to site in a stock swap. angie's list rising by 12% in after hours trade higher by 10% and iac is off by 1%. >> blackstone agreed to invest more than 800 million dollars in ncr giving it a 15% stake in the atm maker. they'll announce the details of the deal later today. blackstone was in talks to buy the company out right but couldn't agree on terms. ncr rising more than 2% in after hours trading session and german trade up by 1.8%. >> just glancing through all of your tweets this morning. keep them coming through. it's always nice hearing from you. @carolyn cnbc.
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we're here. now still to come here on the show, apple wants more say in how you pay for things. well, more on the company's latest strategies to control your wallet. that is next.
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>> the company also lowering it's savings and earnings guidance for the full year and macy's would have to discount heading into the holiday shopping season because it was stuck with extra inventory. if we take a look at the shares year to date they're off some 39%. >> yeah. weakness at macy's and more strength online but not looking too fantastic. now on top of that, apple launched apple pay last year and while more than a million merchants and locations accept the service, only a small portion of consumers are using it. now apple is hoping to change that. well let's cross out to landon dowdy at cnbc headquaters in the states. oh, landon, leopard thursday, how are you? >> i'm great. how are you? i love the new hair cut?
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>> we all try. we all try a bit. >> i'm just trying to keep up with you. but let's talk apple. apple is in talks with banks such as jp morgan and wells fargo to create a person to person mobile payment service. it could compete with paypal's popular payments app. reports say it's unclear whether any banks have signed on and no launch is imminent but apple could roll out the service sometime next year. it would likely link through apple pay letting users transfer money from their checking acounts. they have been slow to gain traction although it added several big named partners. a survey shows as of october less than 17% of iphone 6 and 6s users are using apple pay. apple's move would be a potential threat to venmo which is the fastest growing payment app in the u.s. it's popular with the news feed feature which lets users see
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their trends fatransfers to oth friends. and paypal says while it doesn't comment on rumors it welcomes any development that encourages people to address the awkwardness of dealing with cash when paying their friends and family back. the mobile payments market has been growing. facebook launched a payment service within it's messaging app earlier this year and google is experimenting with it's payments in it's messaging service. square has processed more than $1 billion in money transfers since it was launched a few years ago. companies don't make money on person to person transfers because this service is usually free: the service would have little impact on the business but enabling easy money transfers could help the stickiness in apple's mobile ecosystem. checking apple and paypal in europe they're both lower today. back over to you. >> landon, we'll see you very soon. i love a bit of leopard.
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>> love a good leopard. >> i have a closet full of them. >> i'll see you on air with one of those tomorrow then. >> you never know. do you want to do leopard friday? >> no, let's not do it. moving on, fan duel ceo says they're considering all the legal options after new york's attorney central sent the company a cease and desist letter. they call the order, quote, very extreme and very sudden which says fan duel and draft kings contests are illegal gambling. fan duel is confident he can persuade him that he's wrong. he also said they have protocols in place to protect player money and hasn't seen an up tick in withdrawals. nigel eccles will be on squawk on the street today at 11:00 a.m. eastern. >> well, sotheby's pulls off a successful art auction in new york. they did that on wednesday. this painting here that you're
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looking at, its a painting of lines on a blackboard. it sold for 70.5 million dollars above the presale estimate of $60 million. an andy warhol portrait went for $47.5 million including commission topping the estimate of $40 million. they raised $295 million from the entire sale of modern art helped by getting sellers to lower their reserve requirements. that squiggly chalk board one. >> that's worth a lot of money. >> i might be able to come up with something similar from someone i know. a very, very well-known artist. >> really. >> incredibliy talented. >> a private collector from hong kong spent $48.4 million for a 12.03 carat blue diamond. it set a record price for a gem stone at auction. it's believed the same buyer
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also purchased a pink diamond for nearly $30 million earlier this week. >> now just reminding you if you're just joining us, these are headlines diverging in december as the fed looks to hike next month. ecb president mario draghi is hinting that the central bank could expoond quantitative easing. apple and paypal going head to head as the iphone maker is in talks to develop a new mobile payment service and walmart unveils that it will offer it's black friday discount online and in stores for the first time ever.
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hi, everybody, welcome back. october's blockbuster jobs report lifted the odds of a fed rate hike at the next meeting. will the two most important central banks diverge in
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december? well, speaking before european lawmakers the ecb president hinted at further action amid concerns that inflation dynamics have weakened. >> we will closely monitor the risk to price stability and assess the strength and per sis peri -- persistence of the factors. at our december monetary policy meetings we will reexamine the degree of monetary policy accommodation. if we were to conclude that our premium term price stability objective is at risk we would act by using all the instruments available within our mandate to ensure that an appropriate degree of monetary accommodation is maintained. consistent with our forward guidance the asset purchase program is considered to be a particularly powerful and flexible instrument.
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in fact, we have always said that our purchases would run beyond september 2016 in case we do not see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation that is consistent with our aim of achieving inflation rates below but close to 2% over the medium term. other instruments could also be activated to strengthen the impact of the purchase program if necessary. >> saw quite a massive drop in the euro dollar exchange rate on the back of that but they have recovered at 10720 but at some point euro dollar back below the 107 level. also want to show you what european markets are up to this morning. we did see a spike on the back of the comments coming from mr. draghi but they have dissipated. similar percentage losses for
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the xetra dax and cac 40. in terms of u.s. futures, a little soft this morning. the s&p 500 off by roughly 3 points. dow jones could fall by 20 points and this is after u.s. markets were down again yesterday off by .3% each and closing at session lows. >> well, i'm very pleased now because we'll be able to round off the show in a really nice way. joining us is the president and ceo at the jp morgan chase institute. welcome. >> thank you for having me. >> thank you for being with us. first of all, what is the jp morgan institute? >> it's a research organization. it's a think tank that's really dedicated to the next generation of economic research. so big data, technology meets behavioral science against very large new data sets that are daily activity and transactions around the world. >> so it's a think tank and what are some of the trends that you're seeing at the moment?
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the people that you talk to? >> among the most important ones we have started is focussing on what's happening with u.s. consumers generally? what do we know about their income and their consumption? and we find, for example, relative to most of the data available that individuals are facing income volatility and consumption volatility which explains the angst we see even as the jobs report has improved and there's still tension that comes from instability. we also see through the work that we do, new perspectives of what i might characterize as muzzles in the economy. we had a dramatic increase on gas prices and the question is to whether that has resulted in more saving or more spending has not been answered particularly well we would argue until now. we can now see that people are spending a lot less on gas but they're spending it on restaurants and groceries so these perspectives that give you
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insight into specific individuals and what they're doing, real time, high frequency, it's all there. >> and as you're working through the big data and what it means for the consumer and the economy, does it also give you a slightly better idea of what the fed should be doing? if you take a look at gas prices or consumer spending, for example, should they be hiking? >> one of the puzzles around the gas price was a view that perhaps there would be more wind in the sales of the u.s. consumer because they had been saving it and we might see more consumption and therefore more gdp going forward as people saw gas prices remain low. i think what we would say is that is unlikely to happen because those are already built into the gdp numbers so we're unlikely to see that wind in the sales. on the other hand, we do see there's confidence enough that people are spending it so on that score, we have a little bit of a mixed message. the choice will continue to be a mixed news choice.
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i would say, even the jobs numbers that have just come out are being interpreted through this mixed lenses. it's good news, 5% unemployment rate in the u.s. is historically very positive but we have so much underemployment in other areas that it's not clear how to interpret that fully. we like to think that what we can offer through this data is better real time view of the economy. >> do you think there's too much confusion in the markets right now? again today we're seeing five fed speakers speaking, probably, some of them on monetary policy once again. you're looking at the data. on the other hand, most of the investors out there are really listening to what these fed speakers are going to say. >> we need to look at the data and i think that many of the data sources that have been available to us so far have been very survey paced meaning that people are asked, when people are asked what are you doing with the savings at the pump, 70% will say we're saving them but we can see that's not true.
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but aggregate data based on service i think are going to be insufficient and we do need to turn to the kinds of data we're trying to put forth. >> thank you very much for coming in to talk to us today. president and ceo at the jp morgan chase institute. >> that's it for today's show. time has run out. time flies by with you. >> we'll be back tomorrow. >> that's right. >> same time. same place. >> exactly. >> this is carolyn. >> and you're louisa. >> and we'll see you tomorrow. (vo) what does the world run on?
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good morning. forget the fed. it's the ecb driving the global markets today. the euro at one point again below 107 overnight as mario draghi hints of further central bank action. and who needs cash? apple in talks to launch a person to person payment service. and ready or not, the holiday shopping season is here. walmart unveiling it's plans today including more inventory on the shelves and an end to those traditional door busters. it's thursday, november 12th, 2015 and squawk box begins right now. ♪
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>> live from new york where business never sleeps this is squawk box. >> good morning, everyone. welcome to squawk box here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe conce kernen. andrew is off today. when he was addressing the european parliament he laid out the ground work for more monetary easing believe it or not. draghi warning that signs of a sustained turn around in core inflation had weakened saying in his words downside risk stemming from global growth and trade are clearly visible in the euro zone. repeating a comment from a post meeting news conference last month draghi said today if price stability is at risk the ecb would act to ensure an appropriate degree of monetary accommodation is maintained. that was all it took to set things off in the currency markets.

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