tv Squawk on the Street CNBC November 12, 2015 9:00am-11:01am EST
has to come to an end but it's going to be a quarter point. i think stocks will, in general, do well. i would be surprised if you see more than a 5% or 10% swing in either direction. >> is the house open in february out in beverly hills? is the staff there if i -- >> any time you want to come. joe, we'll -- you can pick some crops in the farm. >> i've got one particular crop i'm interested in. thanks, joe. join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" coming up next. good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer. david is up town at liberty media day. his exclusive with john malone is coming up. stocks are on track for the
worst week in ten. draghi's comments don't add anything new. rolls royce has a warning. oil back below 44. copper to a new six-year low. macy's sending shockwaves through retail. it's not all brands. a big beat this morning from kohl's. we'll have an exclusive with john malone in a moment and apple reportedly diving further into payments. pay pal and google wallet may be on notice today. first up, kohl's up sharply on better than expected quarterly results. comps up 1%. retailers citing strong back-to-school sales. comes after macy's reported the weaker sales and guidance. comps up better than estimated. inventories up 5 but still sequentially better. the take is, given macy's, this is pretty solid. >> there was a time when 1% comp growth would be something that i would turn to you and say, wow
is that pathetic. people were looking for 1% comp growth and they gave it to us. was it -- kohl's has one advantage. they don't have a giant flagship store. kohl's is also trying to differentiate some of its products. that's not an easy thing but they have good private label. i happen to like the private label very much. private label is often what the key is nrd to make good profit. but kohl's demonstrates as does jcpenney that people are going to say macy's is an outlier. i think kohl's has been a serial underperformer and this was the beginning of numbers have been cut so much, they didn't disappoint. >> we have nordstrom point. bezos is now the fourth richest person. kevin plank at theu c iconic conference last night talking to
our scott whopman. >> terry lundgren is one of the best executives in retail. i think macy's is a powerhouse. they, without question, they set the tone in a lot of rights. you're seeing a lot of inventory and people reacting to the second warmest september and probably one of the warmest octobers in recent history. and that will have its effect. >> you mentioned weather yesterday. you said you have to -- it is warm out there. who wants to look at an overcoat. >> i love kevin plank. mark parker was honored by fortune. he'll hate that. he'll buy every copy of fortune and rip it up because that's the player kevin plank is. he's got this fabulous clothing line that keeps you warm when it's cold. well, guess what i don't want right now? kevin has done a remarkable thing. he's a technology company, connected fitness. i love the guy. scott interviews kevin plank. they have a great relationship. plank could not control the
weather, which is monumental because he's in control of everything else i've seen him go up against. >> no big voting stalk when it comes to the weather. walmart is not only trying to simplify their deal structure going into black friday but they're loading up on inventory. they don't want people to walk into the store and not be able to get what they want in the size they want. they'd love some colder weather but they're comfortable with their inventory. >> doug mcmillan. the good news about the ceo, he's lowered xe eed expectatione point if they sell very little we'll hold it to, they're selling very little. i think doug works in mysterious ways as we know when he said that business was okay and then business wasn't okay. i think a lot of people are pulling for doug because he's trying very hard to turn around the biggest american retailer. is this the right strategy? i don't know. everybody else has too much inventory. i come from a retail background.
my father would also curse inventory if the weather was warm. and i think doug and my dad would not jive right now. >> david, we're going to hear from you in a moment on malone. i assume you've got some thoughts on the retail picture, too? >> lucisten, jim and i were e- l e-mailing yesterday going, whoa, look at that move in macy's. it really was stunning to see that kind of a loss of market value in one company. we've seen it, you were just mentioning walmart. we've seen that day happen. a number of these blow-up days in retail and some of the heavily shorted stocks that you and i are just sort of watching go down every day whether it's valiant or sun edison. not to bring those into the conversation, but moves like that and macy's can have a big psychological impact, too. >> yesterday was the -- you've done more work on this than anyone. macy's, no to the real estate of what we heard at delivering
alpha. mcdonald's, it's not that kind of thing. we don't want to play that. we'll not try to bring it through reits. were hedge funds just saying we were hoping they'd go this way and we've given up. maybe the year of financial engineering and real estate has kind of peaked. >> it may have. there's also some questions from the irs front in terms of structuring these so they get irs approval. we saw that's pressure on mgm. they went a somewhat different route. they're keeping most of the reits they're creating and selling it in an ipo. very different from selling it off and trying to get those irs approvals which have been tougher to get in terms of the tax-free status they like to have accorded to those things. i don't know how much that plays into it or it's simply a view of a lot of different things, including wanting to own your real estate. talking that off the table certainly probably didn't help
on a particularly bad day as it was. >> one of the things that's happened, i remember when best buy was viewed as being the showroom for amazon. david, i think there's a consensus building that macy's is now just a showroom for amazon. tough. >> $15 billion market value at amazon. >> a lot of people rallying around macy's saying the yield is okay. they've derisked the stock. there's a funny term. carl. the derisk firm concept which means, man, this thing is so bad. but, david, sun edison has not been derisked. it's still too early to buy sun edison. >> too early to buy? oh, no, jim. that's just terrible. is it too early for -- >> david, you report is weighed in on this incredible coca-cola situation where acman is saying you don't like valiant? coca-cola, that's not good for you.
this is a battle royale. >> it is isn't it? >> it's a battle royale, it is. >> help me, david. i'm out there on this coca-cola thing. >> i'm not going to coca-cola. i'm not going to coca-cola. >> he waeon't bite, carl. >> can go to malone, though if you guys want. >> let's get even more controversial. let's go to malone. >> i had him sitting here for about 45 minutes. a long-ranging discussion at the annual liberty media investor day. some news out of liberty media. they're creating even more tracking stocks. if you want to follow the fortunes of the atlanta braves, you'll be able to do that. every win or loss. perhaps that tracking stock will go up or down. they are creating a tracking stock that will follow their ownership of sirius, which is close to about 60% of that
company. but will actually be simply a tracking stock of sirius so you'll have that and the actual common stock of sirius. unsure if they'll trade in parity. the frustration had been that it's trading in a significant discount. its holdings are more than the stock of liberty would seem to suggest. they're trying to address those imbalances with these various spins of, as i said, the liberty braves. liberty media and liberty tracking stock groups. i didn't talk to malone that much about it. we'll talk to greg mcfay later in the morning, the ceo of liberty, about those plans. we talked about a lot of things. but one in particular, the charter deal to acquire time warner cable and the bruighthoue networks. still awaiting approval on antitrust and from the s.e.c. and questions now about, could it be this thing actually meets any real trouble on the regulatory front, and is it possible given the 26% ownership
of liberty broadband which malone controls of charter, and his ownership in discovery and various content assets, that it could create more problems. i asked john malone whether if that were the case, what he would do. >> i've always taken the position, for instance in directv, you know, when my ownership and participation in directv became an issue, an antitrust issue, right, i negotiated an exit for me so that directv could go forward without these issues. so, you know, my phone number is well known. >> you're like an exit to discovery to allow charter to buy time warner cable. >> no, but i could exit charter. i mean, why would i exit discovery when that's a double bank shot. >> i would never expect you to. i wanted to understand what you were saying. >> if charter has -- if the
problem of charter being able to do this transaction is me, i don't have to be part of charter controller ownership. >> there you have it from mr. malone, or dr. malone. unlikely that that's going to come up, but at least it's been somewhat part of the conversation lately. and it does seem fairly certain that -- i shouldn't say fairly certain, but most people believe that the deal will be allowed to proceed. the broadband penetration of a combined charter, time warner cable and brighthouse is still less than our parent company comcast, but nonetheless, we know a year ago, including malone, he thought there was an 80% chance comcast's purchase of time warner cable would happen. we're watching that deal. it's an important one for john malone as well. we talked about a lot of things. we'll be sharing that through our program this morning. we'll have the entire interview available at some point online on cnbc.com.
he's always interesting, to say the least, jim. >> well, i mean, look. i think -- a tracking stock for the mets would have been -- that would be something that could be offered. but malone is doing something, and i think that i like the fact there are executives in that area that are -- it's still an area of consolidation where money is being made. i mention that because there's a lot of areas where money is no longer being made. i wanted to get david's take on viacom where stocks down badly because i think viacom is the kind of non-disney programming, david. i think john malone must think that disney programming is special. >> you know, it's funny. we talked about media getting day. you'll be interested to hear his response about what happened to the various stocks, including discovery which is close to mr. malone's heart as you well know given his sizable ownership. viacom has had a terrible year
in the stock market. dragged down so often as a result of its own operations. the belief it does not necessarily have must-see programming. and that it is in the weakest position of the major content providers, if you will. this quarter didn't look particularly good. i want to get an opportunity to look morclosely at it. the call as well and see what comes off that. that can make or break a lot of these situations. but there's got to be some pressure, one would think, on felipe. it's got to be on that board of directors. he has one big supporter, sumner redstone. certainly bears close watching. >> domestic ads of viacom down seven which prior down 9. a step in the right direction. >> this is a kohl's situation. it's interesting. what's the first line in the release? sumner saying viacom continues to create some of the most compelling content in the world. i'm confident that viacom's
leadership team will continue to lead for a period of transition. transition is an interesting word because where exactly are they transiting to, david? >> the digital world. that endless digital universe, jim, that we're all trying to figure out. that's where they're transitioning to. >> i'm shorting the braves. tell john i'm shorting the braves and going long for the mets. they'll be back. >> we'll talk more about what's going to at liberty's day. apple may be upping the ante in the payment wars. we're looking here. dow futures down triple digits. s&p futures down 13. crude oil down more than $1. six fed speakers on the docket, including yellen in about 15 minutes. we're back after a short break. [announcer] if the most challenging part of your day
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apple's reportedly in talks with u.s. banks regarding a mobile to mobile payment service. the journal today says it would allow users to zap money to one another rather than relying on cash and checks. the service would compete with paypal, google and square. a lot of questions. the journal points out it's not clear the progress of these
talks, how apple would make money, how this would fit into bank infrastructure. talking about a hot space. >> they felt it was just too cheap. obviously, everybody wants to be in this because it's peer to peer and people like it. the younger generation, i'm going to date myself here. paypal is through credit card. they don't regard american express -- i've been a member since 1982, and they laugh at that. they say, dad, join the fast living world. but apple is doing a lot of things that people don't seem to care about. apple is in the throws of another round of people saying that cell phones have peaked. certainly not demonstrable in the last quarter. not from skywars who just announced a big buyback. it doesn't seem to matter all the innovation that i think apple is bringing to the party. this is something that's a good idea for apple. but apple can't get out of its
own way right now, the stock. >> the stock you mean. >> yeah. >> in a sense, it's like 1,000 cuts they're trying to take out of rivals because a lot of these won't move the needle, but in aggregate, maybe they lock the user in the eco and there's no reason to go anywhere else. >> the facebook ecosystem, google ecosystem and amazon ecosystems, the worlds collide. but i think there's room for all these worlds. i keep thinking about what tim cook said about the pc. he didn't mean the mac, which i just spent a g for with my kids. the mac -- >> you knot a macbook -- >> the air mac. it's this thing that i have. this is like what i use now for weights because i can't lift weights because of my back. >> this san old hp. >> no offense to meg whitman. i use american express and i use
this and my kids are saying, hey, t-rex. they'd be calling me t-rex. it's like, wow. hey, t-rex. >> apple is not t-rex. >> you think you'd get the ipad pro? >> i already ordered it because i'm tired of the wife watching her thing and doing that darn -- that 30-second "new york times" crossword puzzle. she watches her thing and i can't get a minute in to watch banchi, strike back. i have to have my own darn tv in bed. i can't see. >> your experience and mine is mirrored. the things you are saying, the ipad, watching television in bed, that's -- >> she just watches movie after movie of dogs trying to get into food but not fresh pet. we'll go over that. and occasionally it's peppered by a cat that does something. she'll look at thus. look at this. she doesn't watch the show. so i can say i pretend to like these things.
she doesn't watch the show. i can say this. >> your secret is safe with us. >> 2 million people, but they're not going to tell her i don't watch those things. we'll count down to the opening bell. obviously a rough start to the session is in store. the dow, s&p and nasdaq are all about break even for november. more "squawk on the street" after a short break. don't go away.
before people read through this to ge, rolls royce is out of the mix on narrow body planes. knocked out by ge and pratt and stuck with engines in the a350, the airbus, which is not selling that well and the a340, which is not selling well. i think that's a mistake for united technologies. they have some business demand. i don't know. before you extrapolate this to the one area of the world doing well, which is air space, understand rolls royce has its issues. >> that's a london chart today. >> don't want anyone to trade rolls royce. >> disaster of the day is a company called fresh pet. this is pet food that is natural and organic, okay. and it comes in its own refrigerators. i personally had to distance myself from this when my stepson was caught trying to make a sandwich and what he thought was
bologna but it was dog food. the dogs like it but they don't do the buying. >> generally we do it for them. >> this was a great concept, natural and organic. but you put it in your own refrigerator and a lot of people think that's a downer. in the middle of the night when you come down to make a sandwich, what is this stuff? it's dog food. >> you don't think it's a broader comment on consumer diskregssary? >> people are going to read through that way and it's -- its time has not come yet. they have a lot of product line. very earnest guy runs the company. but natural and organic. just remember that in the end, the dogs don't have nearly the votes you think when it comes to buying dog food. we'll get the opening bell in a minute. yellen is on tape. mcdonald's ringing the bell.
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"squawk on the street" live from the financial capital of the world. the opening bell in just over a minute's time. before the bell, we're expecting some remarks from more fed speakers today. six in total. five voting members. bullard's already on the tape saying we should start heading the policy rate back to more normal levels. there's yellen speaking. the conference is called monetary policy implementation and transmission in the post-crisis period. >> i think that again, i don't think it's necessary to have a rate hike but it's now in the cards after last friday's employment number. you see such weakness throughout the economy. it is kind of odd that employment has held in. we're just -- we're going to be bagged by this. i'm very fatalistic about a rate hike here. it's sure not good for stocks. >> the bottom of your screen, she's not commenting specifically on the economy or policy. and she's not taking q&a. i think that's all we'll get
from yellen for the time being. let's get the opening bell under way and a look at the s&p. at the big board today, a guest of ours on set yesterday, mcdonald's. ceo steve easterbrook along with members of their marketing team. at the nasdaq, vwr corporation. laboratory products supplier. celebrate its first listings anniversary. we'll get cisco tonight, jim. and we might hear from them more directly tomorrow. >> it's a very expensive stock. chuck robb is doing a great job. is this a blowout quarter? the guy has really invigorated the company. this is not necessarily the greatest moment in the world for tech. but my charitable trust owns it and it's doing a lot of things. >> worst week in ten for the dow is not saying a lot. we haven't had a losing week in
almost two months. >> that's important to point out because the gloom is so palpable so quickly. a lot of that is due to the fact the dollar -- draghi is saying all these things that make the dollar go higher. and there's this great conundrum going on. for a long time we felt when oil goes down, good for gasoline, for the consumer. the macy's situation has clouded that. owl going down, copper going down is signalling to a lot of people, are we going into a gigantic slowdown at the same time mr. bullard is very sanguine n that the fed is on auto pilot. that's got a lot of people worried and is causing a lot of selling. >> there's a report out today talking about the amount of oil at sea. that's literally on ships. two times the levels of earlier this year. it's equivalent to more than a day of global supply. we may have capacity but they are running out of it on the ocean. >> an interesting e-mail was
sent out yesterday from the ceo of the largest oil tanker company. his company is doing quite well. why? exactly what you said. it's a lot of hedge funds storing oil. selling futures against it. and yeah, there's too much oil everywhere. iraq is certainly pumping a lot, and iran. and it's not being used more. there's like a 1% to 2% increase in the amount of demand of oil. it's not keeping track. one of the reasons they're doing so poorly is we don't need the pump as many. many felt anadarko and apache could be the beginning of a wave. so too much oil is viewed as a negative now because it's not helping the consumer, and, obviously, there's so many stocks that are connected with oil, correlated in a way that makes it just go down. >> how concern order you that we hold 41, 38?
>> i think we're okay. i think that there is some demand at the 40, 39 level that kicks in. i don't want to conflate too much geopolitical but isis seems to be on the retreat. isis put in a bit. i do know there's a sense the middle east has gotten a little more in control of things and the saudis don't show any sign of letting up. >> absolutely not going into the december vienna meeting. their strategy is stubborn. stubborn. >> you keep hearing the saudis are going to stop. they are at 11 million barrels. we probably need 9.5 to stabilize oil and they're at 11. there's no place to put that stuff. >> that oil chart will lead you right to the winners today. kohl's, darden, delta is on there, along with some others. >> i like delta and southwest. i really like them. i think that they are very, very
inexpensive stocks. obviously hurt by a stronger dollar. less southwest because it's so american. but i just think that they are -- don't forget. they and the cruise ships, holy cow. talk about a group that's doing well. royal, carnival. they oar are -- they use so much fuel. those heavy users, it goes right to their bottom line. it will be quite good in terms of cost structure. bill miller is such a good manager and is in deep in the airlines. those two make sense. spirit is not doing that well. a lot of people want to buy simple. stick with delta and southwest. >> do you take a gamble on jwn tonight? >> they've got -- nordstrom has great warmer weather clothes. the service matters. i was in nordstrom last weekend. their array of stuff is fabulous. then again, the weather is just not cooperating. kohl's has more nonweather stuff
than nordstrom which is really in deep in terms of more expensive, but great service, but more expensive. i wouldn't put it past them. they have a great online business and terrific manager. i just don't like retail here. i can't change my view. vf corp downgraded. vf corp started signaling this. if you want to know who i think you'd take a gamble with, it's tjx. they have that right mix. and home goods is doing well. the dollar stores have been terrible here, too. >> indeed. advance parts. >> they missed the numbers. $2.09. goes $1.80. a new ceo coming in. a lot of activist challenge there. this group has been very strong. the one to own is autozone. and i think rather than read through this group has suddenly gotten weak go back to autozone.
o'reilly auto zone is the second one. this company -- you're right. they've been a winner but there have been some challenges. this company not doing as well. >> i saw doug cass yesterday. n.i.k.e., we get depot readings early in the week. >> doug's got a point. those are winners. i think kohl's calling out nike's business is strong offsets what's people read through that macy's says nike is weak. nike is selling a lot in china. chinese oar that was a very big seller. >> costco get something play on that. >> costco makes its money on that card. when i go to costco like i did this weekend, i'm always amazed how they really have items they just sell for what they bought them for and it's a joy to go
there. although they have way too many natural, organic samples. the joy of that place was to get that lox spread. >> it's would you like some gnutella and quinoa? come on, bring back that stuff that raised your cholesterol so we can keep lipitor in business. >> as you mentioned, fortune names mark parker of nike their business person of the year. number two is zuckerberg. three is wilson at ea. tim cook and then a.j. mango at mastercard. >> these guys are all great. start with mastercard and work back. mastercard and visa, very competitive. they've delivered an amazing quarters. they are very good. parker, incredibly competitive. >> would you have put him at number one? >> i would put howard schultz up there, part of nosh. parker is so unsung. tim took obviously a very big
backer of parker. my daughter lives in oregon. and like nike, that's nike town. and people just know that this is one of the most progressive, greatest companies. they're doing so many things right at nuike and people keep betting against it. >> lee gallagher, i didn't know he was a 40-year veteran of the company. and a relative introvert. >> have you ever met him? >> no. >> some people are these quiet competitors. mark parker is -- he has -- europe was fabulous. china's fabulous. he has great rapport with athletes. in the end, he's a shoe guy. he likes a great nike. i just can't say enough good about him. electronic arts. haven't they done a great job. that's been a big winner. and that whole sector. take two has been great. i like game stop. all these guys, it does
translate to stocks. those stocks are all really good. and ea and nike have been giant winners. ea was an undermanaged company for a long time. these are companies. i like the correlation between the ceos and how the companies are doing and stocks are doing. mark parker doesn't get enough credit. i want to do my show from nike headquarters. >> a seattle show would get a lot of work done. >> we do portland, seattle. we do it where people are positive, even though the weather is not that good. it's been rainy all week there. these guys are just -- the dna is to win but not to toot their own horn. >> a lot of stuff happening in the pacific northwest. all the dow components are in the red led by caterpillar in the red. bob is on the floor. good morning. >> all ten sectors are down here. led down by energy with oil at the lowest level since back in august. materials, industrials, all the global names weak.
consumer discretionary doing a little bit better but not that much. a little bump from kohl's there. i want to emphasize energy big down day again today. this is the second day in a row here. in terms of what's up with them. lowest level since august for oil. big inventory build. yesterday we saw. a lot of disapontement. no anadarko/apache deal. nothing happening in the m&a space. look at the energy stocks. chesapeake, anadarko, murphy. marathon. all of them down again. some of these guys, chesapeake, apache, marathon. down double digits just this week alone. we've been on a down trend the whole week. the whole commodity complex is on another down trend here. if you look at base metals. copper, six-year lows. zinc, nickel, aluminum. i'm discerning a pattern here. not even in the base metals. goals sat a five-year low.
platinum, silver. the dollar is killing things and weak demand is not particularly helping. moving on to kohl's, i was quite impressed. comp store sales up 1%. jim is right. we're in a strange year when comp store sales are celebrated at 1%. inventories up 5.7%. remember, macy's comp store sales down 3.6%. so at least this is a better comparison between sales and inventories. inventories are moving up but certainly better picture than macy's. and the gross margins. 37.1%. that was only down ten basis points from the prior month. very good margins. i anticipate thus will slip in the fourth quarter. much better than expected. kohl's is helping but not big moves in the department stores. i guess you can call kohl's a department store. sometimes a discounter. even if you look at some of the discounters out there, walmart and everybody else, very modest moves. even tjx is down.
not a lot of follow-through for kohl's better than expected numbers overall. finally, i want to point out macy's comments that they'll be opening discount stores. they are following on the success of nordstrom. we're going to get nordstrom after the close but remember what nordstrom did the other day. same-store sales were up 4.9%. revenues were strong. but much of the growth has come from the nordstrom rack chain. that's the discount chain. so macy's is simply recognizing what everybody else is recognize, what nordstrom recognized. nordstrom rack is a very, very dedicated following. they opened one in philadelphia recently. it's been packed. and the business there has been very good. keep an eye on that. nordstrom after they closed. faber is uptown in new york. >> thanks. that's right, bob. we're in midtown manhattan at liberty media's annual investor
day. had an opportunity to sit down for my yearly chat with the chairman of liberty media and chairman of liberty global john malone. some may forget malone terms himself an investor these days. no longer ceo. he leaves that to the likes of greg mcfay. but there are so many companies either controlled or at least he has negative control of, meaning he can prevent something from happening. perhaps he can't make something actually happen. they own qvc. liberty interactive. liberty broadband has a 20% stake in charter. they own 50% of serious satellite radio. that announcement today is going to become its own specific tracking stock that's been a part of liberty media. that's not to talk about the, i think it's a 22% or so stake, in discovery. sort of control there along with the newhouses that malone has. you get the point.
he's got his fingers in an awful lot of different things, does john malone. i was speaking to him earlier in part about what's going on in media and in content. we had a lot of discussion about that. then i also specifically referenced that day last summer when bob iger at disney came out and said, well, we saw some minor declines at least in subscribers at espn and the media stocks as you well know went south fast. i asked malone, what was your reaction? >> i was cursing bob for generalizing because we weren't seeing this kind of attrition. i'm sitting at charter. i'm sitting at discovery. we're not seeing any meaningful subcount attrition. in fact, we're seeing a strong advertising quarter right now. and so the numbers i'm looking at are going this way and bob is
gloom and doom going this way. >> interesting reaction, of course, from malone who, as i said, owns a lot of discovery and has watch that stock struggle for any number of reasons, including on that day we sometimes refer to as media get. and a lot of other things we talked about we'll be sharing through the morning, whether it be liberty global. he's the chairman. there are talks with vodafone and with cable and wireless. where does all that stand? and the deal yesterday in which discovery and liberty global bought stakes in lionsgate films. we'll be sharing that through the morning. certainly interesting to hear him cursing bob iger on that day in question. >> well, david, it's important to point out viacom is up, and that's significant because again, maybe this is the kohl's phenomena that we've taken these stocks down so low when they do
kind of a not-so-great number, it's better than what people think. and so media getting and what media is saying about disney, they all have a common theme which is maybe we got too negative. >> yeah. on viacom itself during the call, i think, jim, they said they expect to see sequential improvement in ads. while people going intoey in quarter were not looking for too much, they were better on the advertising front. so while the stock did look like it might be down a bit before the open, does appear on the call they gave a little more positive commentary. that may be why you're seeing a bit of life in viacom shares. overall, malone is still talking about scale globally for content, not to mention distribution which he's been pushing for some time but which may occur with the charter deal. but he still thinks there's a real opportunity there. we'll be sharing those thoughts again from him directly as opposed to through me.
>> thank you, david. let's get to the bond pits and check in on some of these yields. rick santelli is in chicago. >> good morning, carl. obviously, six fed speakers, cnbc has been highlighting that. five are voters. i'm sure the clarity factor will just reign supreme after we get done listening to all of them. mario draghi's words. let's start with the european markets. a two-day of the dax. right around the time he was speaking they were flirting with yesterday's lows. now below it. august chart, you can clearly see, 11,000. 11,000 is the line to pay attention to. if we look at what's going on with the euro, yes, mario draghi's words gave the euro a bit of a boost. look at charts in april and maybe the tail end is turning up, but the drop is directly due to the notion of what's happening in the december meeting with our fed. if we look at the part back to the u.s. side, the biggest part
of the curve that everybody is watching, the most pain and the most gain, it's the five-year note. look at yields since mid-june. they've skyrocketed. how can we tell if it's over? it certainly feels we've reached the level where the rise in rates are moderating. let's look at the component s. it's slowed down a bit. the same for 30/5. it brings in many more treasuries and let's get to the benchmark ten-year. where do you want to watch the freight start to come down? mid-september high yields 228, 229 is what traders are going to be looking at. carl, back to you. >> rick santelli. when we come back, don't miss an exclusive with the ceo of trip adviser.
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dow 38 map lead lower by boeing, chevron, jpm and american express, led by cisco, which, by the way, reports tonight. chuck robbins with us tomorrow. jim, a lot to talk about. >> the stock has not done that much. great balance sheet. it has a lot of momentum, more than people realize. then again, i want to point out, we're at a moment -- they're not as dollar sensitive as people think. this is not a agreement moment for tech. a downgrade of oracle yesterday. ibm goes down a lot. other than pure cloud plays, it's been very tough. i'm not going to hold it against chuck if he doesn't blow the doors open.
and yet ge is being read through as a takeaway positive from rolls royce because rolls royce is using business in ge. it's just really interesting. the fastest growing large cap industrial in an era where people keep selling industrials and a lot of this is because of the share take, a lot of it is because of good management and a longer finance company. but i don't know. good to see something working. >> it's now moved ahead. it's now the third best dow component for the year. just edges ahead of mcdonald's at 22%. >> two companies that are doing many of the right things. and it's so interesting that they own -- that rolls royce is that a350 and the ge is doing so well in engines. people forget that's a core business for them. united technologies doing well, too. i want to point out the gloom is too palpable right now. >> what's on "mad" tonight? >> we have popeye's, louisiana chicken, a place i love.
if i want a treat, i go there. the company reported a great quarter. people got too negative and the stock is up gigantically. too much gloom factored in to some situations. if apple goes up today, it's going to be a day that people are going to regret that they didn't buy. >> jim, we'll see you tonight. "mad money," 6:00 p.m. when we come back, a lot more of david's life is with john malone.
good thursday morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm scarl quintanilla with simo hobbs. david faber spoke with john malone from liberty media. plus tom rutledge in just a moment from charter communications. stocks have had a rough morning. dow down 164. oil is coming off of the lows. we'll see if that has any effect on equities in the next few hours. >> let's get to the road map on
cnbc. macy's, a big drag on the retail sector but that's not hurting kohl's. the stock is up sharply. how you should be playing retail now. and liberty's john malone. more from david's interview. and there are six fed speakers today, including chair yellen as you've seen, more importantly this evening, vice chair stanley fisher. we'll get all the highlights as they come through and what you should expect. kohl's is surging today. cost cuts enabling the department store to beat on earnings and report a 1% gain in luke for like sales after recent declines. much of the retail industry is clearly haunt eed by that warni from macy's which lost one-fifth of market cap in one week. oliver chan, good morning to you. did kohl's cheer you up this morning? >> it did a little bit. the retail environment is very
cautious but kohl's printed a solid comp at plus 1. also kohl's has an attractive product portfolio. it's focused on active, active wear, footwear performed well. this was very encouraging. the plus one comp especially given yesterday's macy's negative 3.9. >> let's come on to that. what's the advice on kohl's? what's the price target? obviously a company in transition? >> we have a market perform rating. we do believe that some of this momentum in the stock performance is due to short covering. short interest as a percentage of flow around 10% to 11%. some of this is short covering. kohl's, we were just off the earnings call. there are a lot of factors which are positive going forward. loyalty program. buy online, pick up in store and mobile and better women's product which is a tough category. women's is 30% of the business. >> let's get on to macy's which obviously is huge for the week. you lowered your price target
last night from $52 to $42. what is the takeaway. how brutal is the read through on inventories for the holiday season for everyone else? >> simon, macy's had a really big inventory spread. that's a problem. inventories are running about 10% above sales. they're planning to liquidate in fourth quarter. that will be a negative for all the apparel universe. the big factor for macy's is international tourism. tour uism could be down 20% to 30%. tourists also have been gravitating less toward the center core. michael kors, pbhs. >> should they not have seen that coming, not the warm weather, the fact that they would challenge within tourism? >> well, they saw it coming, but it got materially worse. so it was a 100-basis point hit
previously. it moved worse at 150 and this company executes very well, but it's been tough. that plus the weather. so i think they saw hints of it, but worse than the management team expected. you can't deny the oncoming of amazon. >> the other factor with macy and mcdonald's as well is that people are pushing back from the -- what the activists want, the financial engineering of spinning out in to a reit. i'd like your take as to why that might be. reits have clearly fallen in value. is there a realization if you spin off these properties you get a rag tag bunch of properties that are all tied to one lease holder? >> there are a lot of complexities with the real estate investment trust. macy's said that's off the table. the complexities include the valuation, single property tenant, as well as macy's. can it afford the rent expense? macy's wants to remain investment grade. should be able to maintain
financial flexibility, and that's a long-term type of interest. don't forget we're in the fashion business, consumer discretionary. these comps for sales can be wild and macy's fundamentally doesn't want to take on that leverage. that being said there's billions of dollars of real estate value. over $10 billion. it's something we'll watch and we think they'll be ad hoc about it. >> okay. we are, what, two weeks and a bit away from black friday. the commentary is fascinating. it's black friday in a relative sense going to be a damp -- are people realize 7ing it's about maintaining margin to an increasing extent and not chasing to the bottom to generate volume and press headlines. >> well, i think it's going to be a little of both. who should win here? probably consumers because there will be great deals in the marketplace. what's going to be fun about this year is the integration of bricks and clicks. buy online, pick up in store and consumers getting stores in their hands with mobile.
understanding where the best deals are and moving towards that. so we will see some great door busters. excitement. black friday, simon, is a social experience for the united states as well. >> sure. >> so i think there will be action. >> but the news flow surely is people who are not willing to open stores to the extent they did before. perhap oz the periphery not opening at all. the mood seems to be changing for the retailers. >> i think what you're seeing is really thoughtful approach to labor and store employees and kind of elivating service in general. that's a theme and it's really a variety in terms of how retailers are playing this card. some retailers are opening earlier, strategically in some markets, and some are choosing not to. we see market share gainers and lo losers. i understand the sensitivity. >> i kind of cut you off before you finished there. sorry. oliver chen joining us. thank you. >> good to see you. david joins us again from
liberty media's investor day with a guest who is shaking of the cable business. hey, david. >> hey, carl. we are joined by tom rutledge who is the ceo of charter communications. good to see you. >> good to be here. >> thanks for taking a moment to talk to us. today is in the end of the public comment period for your pending acquisition of time warner cable and brighthouse networks coming along with that. time warner cable already agreed to a deal. you confident you'll get this through the regulatory process? >> i think so. it's a good deal. it's good for the country. it's good for the industry. >> why is it good for the country? >> you'll have a better operator in a larger footprint that will be a source of innovation in the industry. it will be smaller, relatively speaking, than comcast. it will be smaller than at&t from a video perspective. one way to think about it, it's really time warner/brighthouse
which is already combined from a programming perspective, picking up a 4 million subscriber system in the form of charter. it doesn't change our position in the industry that significantly. but it does make us slightly larger and a place where innovation can occur. in addition to comcast. comcast is an innovative company, and it's a place where alternative sources of innovation can be developed at scale. and charter has been doing well. it's improved its customer service. hiring lots of people. we've hired 7,000 people in the last four years, and if we apply the same approach to the time warner/brighthouse assets, which we will, we'll hire 20,000 people. we'll create jobs, create quality service and we're going to expand our competitive footprint, too. we're going to build out areas that are unserved in commercial areas. so we'll bring high-speed
enterprise services to parts of the country that are not served today and we'll expand our residential footprint by a million homes. so we'll have a larger competitive infrastructure, better service organization and we'll have american workers doing it. >> and you'll have 22 million subscribers? >> we'll have 24 million customer relationships. 17 million video customers. >> when i think about broadband and what brought down comcast/time warner cable. comcast is larger in broadband. tom wheeler is a wild card, i would argue. are you confident that they'll not come out at the fcc and say still too much market power when it comes to broadband for this combination? >> when you look at our data business, we'll still be smaller than comcast when this deal is completed. and we're smaller than at&t. we're smaller than verizon. we're about the same size as sprint and t-mobile in terms of data customer relationships. so i would argue that it's a
pretty competitive environment, and you have a lot of investment occurring in the wireless space. a lot of investment occurring in the wire line space. and moving toward a mobile competitive environment and i think that allowing us to operate at this scale will actually be good for all the parties. and good for competition. so i think the fcc will see it that way as well. >> when i was speaking to john malone earlier today, because there's been some murmuring or conversation about the idea, there could be an argument that there's also some vertical relationships here given his ownership stakes in various content companies. he said if it came to it, i wouldn't stop this deal. mean, he'd figure out a way to reduce or eliminate his ownership of charter. does that surprise you? >> it's very gracious of him, i think. and the kind of shareholder that he is. and he is a shareholder. he doesn't control charter. >> he's got a number of board seats.
>> he does. >> well, a public company -- >> liberty broadband. >> has some board seats. >> they'll actually be reduced in this transaction. we've set up a governance structure to make it impossible for those kinds of things to occur inside the corporation. but even from an economic perspective, it's not rational for his ownership to -- if he could control the company, to damage one of his video services like discovery by giving it exclusively to charter and not selling it to satellite and phone companies. it would really be a net economic loss. so i think even the economic arguments don't hold water. the other thing to remember is his personal ownership stake in the new company will be about 1.7%. not that significant. while he's famous and people follow him, and i love having him on our board and i love his input, he's not in a control situation. >> his voting stake is far above
his -- liberty broad band's voting stake. >> i want to move on to content to a certain extent. a year ago you and i had a conversation about hbo, which there was talk that it would start its own broadband service away from the cable service. at the time i think you said if they do that, they'll be sowing the seeds of their own demise. they did it. hbo now. it's up and running. >> yes. >> have they done what you said they'd do? is their demise coming? >> i think they have risks to their business, if they are selling against the distributors that carry them today. and they have, you know, all of our customers have the ability to get hbo, and we don't need hbo anymore to satisfy our customers. so it creates -- now does that mean it's impossible for us to sell hbo? we're selling more of it than ever. >> so wouldn't that seem to
argue that it's not perhaps that much of a concern? >> yeah, i think you can argue it both ways. i think that it all depends on what their business practices are in the long run, whether or not they put their base at risk. and so far, it doesn't appear to be happening. from their point of view, so far, so good. >> you added video subscribers last quarter. >> yeah. >> the market cheered what was a very good quarter from you. we're all sitting here, those of white hou us who follow this closely and investors saying the bundle has fallen apart and consumers are going away. wouldn't seem to be the case here soor is it that you're takg shares from the overall pie? >> the overall pie is shrinking for a variety of relationships. there's more over the top television. so there is substitution. there's also very poor security
on tv everywhere, which is high quality television. it's what's in the bundle outside the home. and what -- >> what do you mean when you say that? >> people can share passwords. i know there's an account that has 30,000 concurrent streams on it. >> how is that possible to be allowed? >> well, the companies that are running tv everywhere are new to distribution. they've been content companies. and they aren't managing security. so that has an effect on the value of content. particularly in college markets. it used to be when kids went back to school, we'd have people signing up at desks essentially in front of the student union for cable. they sign up for broadband now. they still sign up a lot for cable. we grew this year more so than last year in that marketplace, but there's a real impediment to selling video when people have passwords with them from their
home and they can essentially watch it anyway on broadband. so that security issue pressures the business a little bit. the cost pressures the business enormously. there are a lot of people that can't afford it. >> you said that in your last call. you were blunt about it. the population is poor, essentially. more people have left the workforce, on disability and food stamps. >> that's all true. the average person has gone backwards. our business serves everyone. everybody wants television. everyone wants broadband at some level. >> doesn't that argue for skinnier bundles? >> if you are a content company, you don't want your product disaggregated from in big bundle because it means you'll have less customers. so there's -- our view is different than content companies. a lot of people think we're a monoluthic industry, and we're not. we have a completely different attitude. we like over the top television
because it makes our broadband product look better. we like it because it pressures the price of video. obviously, if consumers are unwilling to pay for video at a certain price, we're unwilling to pay for that as well. so our cost structure is positively impacted by over the top. that said, we want to sell packages of product. if we had our druthers, we'd sell packages and tailor them to whom the audience was and we'd give consumers what they want at the price they're willing to pay. but if you're a content company and you have 100 million homes and distribution, you don't want to be disaggregate. when a big company ms. to us that has leverage if you want to take espn you have to take disney tunes or whatever. and that's the way it's been and i understand why they want it that way. >> tom, always a pleasure. wish we had a luittle more time
extremely sensitive to what's coming through from some of the fed speakers. six fed speakers today. yellen arguably has caused some gyration on the dollar, even though she doesn't say much. for the moment, you can see we're down. it's energy and materials leading the fall. coming up, a wealth of speakers today. six speakers, including one from chairman yellen. all the important headlines after the break.
they are out in force. by the end of the day we'll have heard from four fed presidents as well as chairman yellen and vice fair fisher. kate rogers is monitoring it all. >> we are hearing from half a dozen fed officials today, including fed chair janet yellen giving opening remarks at a post crisis monetary policy conference hosted by the board of governors of the federal reserve. while yellen did not milwaukee mention of u.s. economic conditions or rate hike timing, many are chiming in. chicago fed president charles evans reiterated the points he
made to our own steve liesman last friday that it could be well into next year before we begin to see sustained upward movement in core inglags. he says it would be appropriate to lift the target interest rate very gradually which would give time to assess how the economy is adjusting. st. louis fed presidency james bullard said the unemployment and inflation goals have been met. he said there's no reason to continue to experiment with extreme policy settings and added that zero interest rate policy has put the u.s. economy at a considerable risk of future inflation. and richmond fed president je jeffrey lacker reiterated the statement that monetary policy has the ability to determine inflation over time. and he has dissented at the last two fed meetings arguing in favor of a rate hike. new york fed president bill dudley speaks at the new york economics club this afternoon
and will be taking questions from the group. we'll keep an eye out for that one. >> busy day on the fed front. thank you. let's get back to david faber. more on his exclusive with david malone. >> we had a wide ranging discussion with john malone as we are lucky enough to do at least once a year. malone, people may remember, as a cable pioneer having built tci into one of the largest cable companies before having sold it to at&t in the late 1990s. he's known as a cable guy, an engineer, but he's spending a lot of time looking at content. people may remember that announcement from discovery and liberty global, two companies in which mr. malone has a significant interest and vote interesting. both taking stakes in lgf, lionsgate. buying it from the chairman of lionsgate, its largest share owner. that comes after starz also
bought a stake in lionsgate. started much of our conversation simply asking malone, what is it about content, and is there a time at which you can see lionsgate getting together with stars and perhaps the mgm studio and maybe an amc and even a discovery? >> i would say that the -- the media if you want to call it that segment, if you compare the size and scale of the players, say, on the internet side and then on the communications service side, i'm talking u.s. i mean, you've got these huge companies on the internet othe technology side, right, with massive balance sheets and massive cash availability. and there's really only four of them that dominate. and then you get over into the cell phone world, and you've got really two giants.
massive balance sheets. you can throw comcast into the massive category now. and then you've got even disney is small in market cap when you compare them with apple or now amazon and facebook. >> or google. >> or google. you have these giant guys. you have these traditional guys who are still quite big in the telco world like at&t does directv and now they've got some pretty good scale and ubiquity. you've got comcast with nbc universal, some pretty good verticality and some scale. these are getting to be big companies. and over here you have the traditional media companies who are looking very small. even the big ones are looking pretty small by comparison. so you could argue that there's going to be some combinations because if you believe scale is
important, and in the content world, whether it's computer software or television content, scale is very important. you make it once. you distribute it enormously. and stability comes from scale and so on. so it wouldn't surprise me to see consolidation in that space. >> we talk about content these days. we can be talking about any number of things from a movie to a television show to something, of course, that has nothing to do with either one that's a short clip done by somebody that's sent over and owned by verizon. you seem to be more focused on the traditional side. at least with some of these stakes recently taken in, for example, lionsgate. >> my involvement in lionsgate got a lot of publicity but there's a lot going on. a lot of cross investment going on as people try to understand what social networking, internet
connectivity, portable devices are going to do to content and information consumption. >> right. >> what did you learn so far? since you started dabbing your toe in the content waters? >> you know, it's just a brave new world. not so much the creative process, but trying to integrate that into some kind of a global distribution mentality. >> the day that disney reported there might have been some espn subscriber losses and media just got shellacked, what were you thinking? >> i was cursing bob for generalizing because we weren't seeing this kind of attrition. i'm sitting at charter. we're growing video subs. i'm sitting at discovery. we're not seeing any sub count
attriti attrition. we're seeing a strong advertising quarter right now. and so the numbers i'm looking at are going this way. and bob is gloom and doom going this way and i think what he's experiencing is that there are a lot of operators who think espn is quite expensive and they have the bigger guys have a little bit of latitude to offer packages that don't include espn. and so i think espn was experiencing more than the rest of the industry in terms of loss of big bundle video customers. >> zazlov makes a lot of money. you pay your guys so much money. why do you pay them so much? >> this is black shoals models. my philosophy is, i give them large stock option grants up front that are meant to compensate them for the next five years. they vast over four and five
years out. stock performs, they can make a lot of money. if the stock doesn't perform, they don't make anything. so i want my ceos to be just like me. invested in the company and its long-term success. and i won't apologize to anybody, and i think the black shoals model sucks. as a mathematician. how many executives do you know that really want their options to be granted when the stocks are at an all-time high? >> there you have it, carl. the black shoals model sucks. if malone says it, you've got to believe it. >> i've heard straight talk but never quite like that. david faber with john malone. stocks taking a hit this week. is a santa claus rally ahead? more "squawk on the street" when we come back.
hello. i'm sue herera. kurdish fighters backed by a u.s.-led air campaign launching an assault to retake the strategic town of sinjar in northern iraq. isis overran the town last year causing the flights tens of thousands of yazidis. u.s. military advisers were on the scene but stayed well back from that fighting. house minority leader nancy pelosi meeting with senior officials in beijing. she's been quite a critic of china's human rights record and also met with tibetan officials
in beijing. clashes breaking out in athens. it comes during the first general strike since the leftist led government took power in january. actor george clooney visiting a charity sandwich shop in edinburgh. it donates all of its profits to homeless people. clooney chatted with the staff and posed for pictures and he'll speak at the scottish business awards. let's get back down to the nyse. hey, carl. >> sue herera, thank you. markets in the red today. dow down 170 amid a wave of fed speak. let's get to david rosenberg and jeff rosenberg. morning guys. good to see you both. >> good morning. here we are. we just got bullard. probably lacker. williams earlier in the week telling us time to normalize
even as copper goes to fresh six-year lows. how long can this go on? >> i think the aim is to get off zero. they passed september because of all the global turmoil and the fact financial conditions were tightening. i don't think commodities will factor into the fed's decision. they probably should have gone off zero quite a long time ago. when they make the move december 16th, it's going to be more important, what they say to suit the markets in terms of what the contours of the path of future interest rate increases are going to be. they're going to emphasize this is going to be a truncated interest rate cycle. to me that's more important. and the bottom line, it's already priced in. maybe not into the fed futures contract. look at the dollar. >> mortgages. >> look. it's pretty well a done deal. i don't think the fed has ever embarked on a fresh tightening cycle starting in december but some sense it's a victory lap for them. the economy will be able to
withstand it. they'll not say we're like one and done but they'll suit the markets by saying this is not like a repeat of 1994 or even 2004. >> jeff, are you as optimistic they can deliver what some argue it would be a complicated message? >> david has it exactly right when it comes to domestic analysis. the other big issue here is going to be how does the dollar respond and how to commodity prices respond to the dollar as well as what's going on in global growth. the offset to the domesting anal sus, which i agree with david, has long argue forward leftoff here is the impact of financial market conditions. we ged dudley speaking later today. he's been the main proponent of looking at this third target, if you will, for the fed. if you get the impact on the dollar, commodities, global growth from normalization and that spills back over through financial market conditions,
that tightens effectively policy for the fed. so the fed doesn't have to do as much and it certainly changes the market's perspective as to what the fed is going to do irrespective of the domestic labor market or domestic analysis. >> maybe we can throw up a chart of the dollar over the last five weeks. it's staggering. the dollar index. the basket of countries. we're down off where we were. we were heading toward 5% in just four weeks earlier in the session. clearly that's still a big move. fisher specifically tonight at 6:00 has said he'll address the impact of currency effects. are you suggesting they might come through and talk down the prospects of further rate hikes because of this move? >> it's not that they'll come out and talk down the prospects. i think it's much more about how do financial markets evolve? and then the fed will respond to those financial market conditions. we talked about it in september. global and international
developments. it postponed the fed hiking. the difficulty here is we're back to this divergence theme. we didn't talk about europe and draghi's comments earlier today. clearly europe is moving in the opposite direction of the fed. that's putting additional pressure upward on the dollar. and the impact of that in terms of what it does to financial markets and confidence effects, that's what's going to limit the fed. they won't speak about it explicitly but they'll be reactive to how financial markets react. >> do you agree? >> it's next to impossible for the fed to tighten monetary policy and not have financial conditions tighten. that's what the goal ultimately is. so we're talking about the u.s. dollar. and the current market is a pair trade. dollar yen, dollar euro. dollar canada. when you take a look -- simon,
real final sales in the third quarter were up over 3% annual rate in volume terms. how many companies in the world can boast that? >> most aren't interested in current pairs but what the stock market does in response to this. and that 5% move we've seen in the dollar, presumably in a delayed sense adds to the cost or benefit of those individual companies moving down the line. let's say the dollar stays where it. is let's say the dollar further strengthens. as a stock market investor, what do i have to do? what do i have to be wary of? >> the stock market is overvalued right now you could argue. we came off a huge bounce, an unexpected bounce. everybody had the white knuckles during the summer and although november is typically a positive seasonal period for the stock market, that's usually november is flat to down after you've had a rippi inping october. we're getting part of that back. i think it is very idiosyncratic. the fed raises rates. what would we be buying into
that? the financials. the fed is going to give the financials, the banks, some net interest marge on. i'd avoid areas of the market affected by the strong dollar. like industrials, technology. consumer staples. but take a look -- what is a strong u.s. dollar do? it reduces import costs. that creates winners and losers but puts more positive margins in the broad retailing sector. we like consumer discretionary. some parts of technology like google and amazon. there's places you can play this and not be hurt by the strong dollar. >> the effect today on commodities and oil prices, do those become increasingly dangerous areas to be materials in energy after all is said and done? >> well, we're going to have to go through more production cuts, more m&a at some point. anything that can't last forever by definition won't. commodities are not going to go to zero but it's way too early.
what do you want to do? how do you want to play lower energy, gasoline prices, feeds into the augto sector. what we'd be buying right now, the airline stocks. >> delta is having a good day. >> you call this the paranormal market, the point at which bad news was good news for stocks. that seems to have flipped. i wonder if you think that's going to stick this time. >> i think geographically, it's evolved. bad news is good news is still what's going on in europe. look at the strong european market reaction after what draghi gave you. when you're thinking about investing in bonds, you want to be careful about investing in front of the fed where they are planning to raise interest rates. that's clearly the impact on the short end of the curve. when it comes to the stocks and paranormal in the u.s. we saw that shift. as we look at the impact of how raising interest rates in the u.s. impacts the dollar, the commodity space, we're in a transition period certainly away from monetary policy being able
to lift stock markets. stock markets are going to need real good news. it's back to good news is good news. the risk there then is, of course, that means bad news is bad news. we have to be careful on the u.s. side. >> good to see you both. >> thanks, guys. still ahead -- we focus on yahoo!. kara swisher joins us on what she calls a convoluted strategy. we'll be route back. here at the td ameritrade trader group, they work all the time.
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below. all 10 s&p sectors in the red. still standing out is one of the worst performers as oil prices fell to a 2 1/2-month low ahead of the inventory numbers. they are out in the next hour. marathon, tesoro, consol energy and apache are weighing on the sector the most. down around 2%. the dow down 141 points. let's get to the cme and rick santelli for this morning's exchange. >> simon, thank you. i'd like to welcome my in-person special guest brad tank. chief investment officer. that's a big job. head of global markets. it's got to be a tough job. simon just pointed out something many on this floor are looking at. we're on top of the 200-day moving average in the s&p, 2,063. it wasn't that many weeks ago we were well above that. now all unchanged or lower. what's changed in the last two or three weeks? >> one thing to consider when
looking at the s&p is the s&p was the market that rebounded off the bottom faster and more powerfully than anything else. from that perspective, it was pretty narrow, even within the s&p 500. it was a narrow advance. you get into other markets, develop european stock markets, emerging markets, it's been nowhere near as powerful. now the s&p sort of pulling back. >> don't we all kind of take the pro and con when we're doing certain things that are positive for our markets? they drain away emerging markets? central banking activities at the epicenter of tick datie i d who drowns in liquidity and who doesn't. >> on a scale of 1 to 10, how much of the down side activity in the last several weeks in stocks do you think is directly attributable to the notion that finally, if you believe fed fund
futures at this point in time, they have acknowledged the probability that is well over 50 that we are going to see snugging up of rates in december, although it's a fluid market in fed funds. >> there's an element here. transitions from stimulus to growth are also tough and market questions the growth side of the equation. if you look back at how the market reacted from mid-september fomc which was a no-go decision and the weakness was -- >> markets didn't price it in, they didn't go and the stock market had a big party. the party didn't start for a couple of days because many were trying to handicap. would the fed question financing at the end of the year and do it in december? now that's dawned on the marketplace. if fed fund futures continue to price it in and that is that important as jim bianco thinks, thalts that's the green light the fed is looking for, doesn't the stock market activity affect how fed fund footers trade and
reprice the notion? there's a lot of toom leime lef. >> we've got a few weeks left. if it happens, the big issue is, what comes next. 2016. >> let's do a hypothetical. hyp. if rates were at 1.5% right now, not 0% to 25%. if they were at 1.5%, all things being equal, would anybody expect any teep of change in rates at the end of december, in your opinion? >> very different set of circumstances, and i think the answer is to that is no. it gets to the heart of the fed's dilemma is they have the data and they've -- >> they've got the jobs data. >> the quality of jobs, how many are full and part-time, because it doesn't mesh with growth. let's continue. >> the other part of the equation is they know zero support normal, and they missed the window earlier this year to raise rates. they would like to hit the next window, and they want to get off of zero. the answer is this fear at 1.5%, they probably don't have much to do right now. >> really the issue is correcting something that's
wrong versus doing something that current conditions would auger for. >> at the end of the day they're going to have to make a compromise, and the compromise is likely they're going to go in december and then when we get into 2016 -- >> i agree with the compromise. i just think that it's compromised the notion that it's data dependent. simon hobbs, back to you. >> that was an interesting conversation. thank you very much. up next, remember monday, tuesday? it has been a roller coaster ride for retail stocks. not just all the way down. we'll talk about that when "squawk on the street" comes right back.
the sector clearly this week in the wake of what they said where heed. kohl's today pushing higher. courtney reagan has more on that. hi, courtney. >> hi, good morning, simon. well, kohl's results reemphasize what many have said for some time. you paint all retail with the same brush. mace where i's was the out performer and polls lagged, but for the third quarter results, that leadership has flipped. kohl's beat wall street for comparable sales. the retailer said back to school sales were strong with late october sales helping to offset a weaker september. on the conference call executives reiterated prior guidance for the full we're. kohl's did, however, concede there was weakness in cold weather apparel given unseasonably warm weather this fall. the mid-tier department store did have good -- it includes nike and fit bit they named by name. now, women's is about one-third of kohl's business and both women's and junior logged a
positive comp for a while. kohl's ended with inventory at 5%. it's a position that was improved very purposefully, in part from buying less merchandise for the holiday quarter. kohl's says it's going all in on marketing, though, spending 14% more year-over-year and, like macy's, kohl's is piloting an off price concept. now, london-based burberry turning in a mixed first half of 2015. profit improved more than 14%, but total revenue more or less was flat over the first part of the year compared to the year prior. quite short of expectations. men's and women's wear sales were flat. accessories grew slightly, while children's grau 10%. now, ceo christopher bailey calls the external environment challenge, but says he is confident burberry has its strongest ever holiday plans. we hear from nordstrom after the bell. we have quite a big week ahead for apparel. >> it's been an interesting hour. on the one hand charter communications told us that so many people are poorer in this country than they were, and that
affects cable consumption and oliver chen suggesting it's a problem with foreign tourists here not coming in the case of macy's or at least not spending in the macy's big stores. >> yeah, exactly. i think that that is going to be something a little more retailer-specific because that's not something that kohl's has called out ever this quarter or previously, and nordstrom has said it's not really an issue for them in the past. we'll see what they say after the bell today. >> thank you very much. in the meantime, let's go to john fort with a look at what's coming up on squawk alley in three minutes time. good morning. >> good morning, simon. apple might be planning on chasing down pay pal. we'll look at the immrikdzs. also, we have the trip advisor ceo joining us to talk about that active space, and there's no place like the home page. kara swisher with the latest news on squawk news. all that coming up. the future belongs to the fast.