tv Fast Money CNBC November 18, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
long. and i have friends of mine that consider ceos and i will tell you the same thing i tell them, get out into the public markets. this is the opportunity to rationalize your valuation. let the market decide your valuation. instead of maximizing your valuation, let the market decide. >> on that note, no prices yet from square. but more on the interview tonight on "mad money." straight over to "fast money." "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking time square. i'm moyle. your traders are pete, steve, brian kelly and guy adami. tonight on "fast," big earnings and big moves. green mountain soaring. we've monitoring conference call and bring you the headlines as they break. and we are awaiting the pricing of two high-profile ipos. match group and square. and they could set the tone and tenor for tomorrow. and later, apple could the most beloved stock be on the
verge of another 40% move higher. goldman sachs says yes and we'll explain the math that has them so bullish. but we start off with the markets. the dow and s&p with strong gains. soaring 247 points after a rate hike is a real possibility for december. so did the fed flash the buy sign for stocks and what should you be doing with your money right now, pete, what do you say. >> on monday weigh talked -- we talked about this. i said look at the way the financials traded. they were higher in the session and as we got into the afternoon we saw the minutes come out and talking about whether or not it was appropriate, it sounds like they said it is appropriate for a hike. then you look at the financials, the way they took off. but technology was strong all day. i know it was apple and that was because of goldman sachs putting it on the conviction buy list. but you look at technology, it was microsoft and cisco. then look at amazon. names all over the place in the tech world moving to the upside.
so a lot of strength in tech and the financials and that volatility index was 20 just on monday and now we are trading back to close to cragging under the 200 day moving average. >> so is the question do this to buy stocks and is the answer yes at this point. >> i don't know if that is the question or the answer. i'm going to push back on both. the bottom line is when i look at it, i'm not sure the fed will raise. >> even still. >> even still. i don't think the fed will raise. i'll take the other side of that. i don't think they're going to raise. we ran up 13% in october. that is a lot. we pushed back a little bit, but the semis ran on m&a, energy ran on i don't know what today. i know what financials ran on. utilities, the laggard today. utilities usually run -- >> does that all add up to a fed rate hike sooner or later. >> they are best performing when the fed raises. it is utilities and energy.
because there is bigger growth, global growth and there is inflation. we don't have either of those. we have growth here. moderate growth. but i didn't see any indication by utilities that the fed is going to raise. >> so i understand what you are saying. but that is not the consensus. so if you have to go consensus in terms of sector moves, you have to believe that utilities are softer and they were softer today. >> before you get to b.k., and -- utilities and energies were up. >> i get that. and your data shows that. but the vast majority of investors out there do not believe that. >> i'm not worried about the wrong guess. i want to be right. >> but here is the thing. the difference that pete and grasso are talking about, was reflected in the market. to me it was like you could have read this statement as either dovish or hawkish, depending on your point of view. the stock market took it to say, hey, we're not going to be too tight or too loose and we rallied 250 points in the dow. but ifk you -- if you look at the bond market, you saw 10
year, 30 year yields, go lower and two and five year yields went higher. so it almost inverted -- but flattened a bit, suggested bond market saying the economy might get weaker. that is what i saw. two different markets. from my perspective, i'm more in the bond market camp. >> how do you read the ink blots. >> you will see more qe in europe. i think the fed had that. and unless something completely unforeseen happens, i think they will do something in december. i think that is what the market thinks. but pushing back, they might say here is a quarter point, come back to us in december, 2016 which is what the market wants to hear. >> back up. december 2016? >> yes. >> give us a quarter and we'll see you in a year. nine months to a year. >> that doesn't sound data dependent and that is what they want us to believe they are. >> they have painted themselves into such a tight corner unless
something completely unforeseen happens, they have to do it. >> they have to do it. because if they don't. >> they lose all credibility and the market gets squishy here. >> so in this goldilocks environment that you put forth. >> yes. >> what do you buy and what do you sell? how do you position yourself? >> here is how i position myself. you still stay long dollar. >> that will work over the long run. the financials, i would be worried. i know you love them pete, but i'm talking about financials that depend on the yield curve steepening. even if we get one rate hike, because the fed loses credibili credibility, but what if this is a one and done. i think you are out of your mind if you think you are getting a rate hike cycle. you might get 25 basis points. i would take financials and possibly shorting them. to more let's bring in peter schiff. we were just commenting. it is like an ink blot. so how do you read it?
>> according to the minutes, a rate hike has been a possibility all year long. and it hasn't happened. in fact, if you read the minutes, what it says is that a majority of members, not all, but a majority or most, believe that the conditions may be ripe for a rate hike in december. but they are not sure. they haven't made up their mind yet. it all depends on the data. and they are going to make up their mind then. so i don't see how that is any different than anything they said all year round and how people could read those minutes and jump to the conclusion that a december rate hike is a lock. >> so what do you think happens then, peter? >> well, i think that the fed has not raised interest rates all year because they're afraid to do it. i think their worried about the economy. they don't want to admit that. so they pretend they are going to raise rates but they keep coming up with excuses why they won't do it. and there are plenty of reasons to use for thought raising rates in december. if we get to december and the stock market is near all-time
highs and everything thinks a rate hike is fine, is it possible they deliver a quarter point and talk it back by saying one and done, we're not going to do any more. it is possible. but if they do that, i think they'll regret it. because i think it is a dangerous game they are playing. because i think the economy is decelerating. the data has been coming out bad. since all of the data since the last meeting has been bad, including the data this week. even the over hyped jobs number, if you factor in the prior two months were not revised up which everything thought was going to happen and it didn't happen, for the prior three months we didn't get more job creation and these are low-paying jobs. and look at the lousy numbers, coming out, the earnings from the big retailers. the economy is decelerating and the fed still has rates at zero. >> peter. it is brian kelly. so i'm curious, i agree with your economic analysis that things are slowing down. my question then is do you out
right short the s&p 500. because i think if the fed does not raise, the market could be disappointed? >> i disagree. i think run of the reasons the market is rising now is because the terrorist attacks in europe make it likely that we'll get more qe in europe and therefore maybe the fed won't move. and in fact, by talking about the fed -- the fed said today, if they do raise rates, that means they won't raise them very much. so i think it is the easy money that is still propping up the market. and if the fed doesn't raise rates, the market will like that. because that is all this market has. it is all about cheap money, qe. and if we lose that. the market is going down. >> so peter, walk me through your analysis of what will happen here. you think that the fed will probably go ahead in december. you think that we're in a terrible economic back drop. so does that mean that the economy is going to really be in trouble once the fed raises rates but the stock market will continue to rally because they like the fed hike?
>> well the stock market has been rallying for years. but the real economy has been getting worse for years. >> so we continue that path, is it what you are saying, in terms of the economy going worse. >> this is a bubble. this is not a recovery. the fed has made a major mistake. they have made all of the problems that caused the 2008 tnl crisis worse. so now if they start to try to normalize interest rates, the next financial crisis is worse than the one in 200 because all of the problems it caused are bigger. so that is the reality. and that is why i still think the fed is more likely not to raise rates in december. but continue to pretend that a rate hike is just around the corner but the conditions are just not right. that the data just doesn't support it. >> so is this financial crisis worse than 2008, will that be spurred by a fed rate hike in december or happen regardless of whether the fed hikes in december or later on? >> oh, it is going to happen regardless. but i do believe if the fed hikes rates, it will happen sooner rather than later. the sooner they hike them they
will have to deflate them again and to diffuse this bubble. and the markets will figure this out and we'll have a currency and a sovereign debt crisis and that is much worse than the crisis of 2008 because there are no bailouts from that. >> peter, great to speak with you. thank you for your time. >> thanks for having me on. >> peter schiff. uropacific capital. the giant bubble he's calling for. >> he's been saying that -- respectfully for a while. but he's also backed it up by saying it doesn't mean the stock market could go higher. he is right in terms of that. in terms of currency crisis, if you look at the moves on a dalis basis in currencies, we probably have one now that we don't talk about. this is my thing. if they don't raise in december, that sends a bad message to the market. >> pete? >> is the market so fragile, by the way, that a quarter point hike will absolutely throw us off the rails? i personally don't think so. and think that is part of the mentality. when you see what the numbers
are, are they so bad right now? >> it is the economy. sow think the economy is strong enough to weather a quarter -- the economy and the stock market are two separate things. >> i think the economy is strong enough to be able to handle it and the read on it right now allows the fed to be able to do it. >> this is the most global i've felt on a fed decision. and i don't think with the ecb going to continue down an easing path that we could raise rates. i think the fed has seen asia, seen china and the whole thing and now they see the ecb and i don't think they will raise. >> there is the point about the divergence of rates just by the fed standing still and the rest of the world going down. >> which is why i think the yield curve could flatten and invert which is bad for financials. because if the fed does nothing and japan and europe and everybody else, india just cut rates, if they continue to do that, that is a tightening factor here in the u.s. >> here it the point. the 25 basis point hike will not hurt the u.s. economy.
what will hurt is the knockon effect of the currency. a strong dollar will hurt multinationals. >> loan growth and m&a are hurting in general. when we talk about the big five names we talk about all of the time, that continues to be strong. we raise rates, that is better for them. >> still ahead, we are waiting for two ipo to break. and plus a tough day for target after reporting online sales growth is slower than anyone thought. but amazon really rocked the street. we'll bring you the comments. and later sales force jumping 3% on an earnings beat. is the company up for sale or not? we'll hear from the ceo on the quarter and the rumors of a potential deal. much more "fast money" right after this.
million shares to the public. that price was expected to come in between 11 and $13 a share. and even that seemingly conservative valuation was lower than the company's last private fundraising. that private fundraising valued t the company up to $6 billion. even with that, the price went up to $4.2 billion. sources told me today there is a likely chance that it prices below the price range. those long only investors reportedly telling the company they need a steeper discount to buy in and they need more assurance that they will see some upside on this deal. because many of them have gotten burned on recent ipos but investing in private fundraising rounds. and then match group. that company aiming to price some 33 million shares. the price range there, $12 to $14 a share. and our indications as of now that price range still holds but we could see that shift depending on the news tonight. and the price range,
$3.5 billion. this is a company that is being separated from its parent company iac. the media portfolio company. and it will be interesting to see exactly how that stock trades tomorrow when match goes public. because, of course, they will remain the majority owner of match. and depending on how that stock moves, that could have an implied valuation for iac. but we won't know anything, melissa, until we get the exact prices that could come any moment. and i'll have that for you as soon as we get them. back to you. >> thank you, kayla. keep us posted. so on square, the big issue is jack dorsey. and there is a duel ceo of jack dorsey at twitter and square. twitter not doing very well. is this the guy you want to split his time to also run square, which is going to go public probably at a discount? >> it is hard enough to run one company, let alone run two.
when you have the seeming problems that twitter -- the problem with twitter is the stock performance. because i don't think the company is all that broken as people make it out to be. not that i'm genius to go in and fix it. but i think it is too valuable property to trade where it is trading. maybe they should focus on one or the other. >> should it have a deeper discount. not only is the ipo market stinky -- >> there could be investors. i agree there could be a steeper discount. there could be investors hurt in twitter that want the guaranteed investment in his next company. and the problem is that he is really teetering on a two-time loser. this is a huge thing. company -- shows like hours are frothing right now to start talking about him being a two-time loser. i think it is set up for failure. >> are you frothing? >> i'm not frothing. but to guy's point, it is difficult. there are folks out there that have done an impressive job over the years trying to do both and had success. elon musk being one of those people. but can jack dorsey do it.
i think they have to figure out the monetization at twitter and they haven't figured that out yet. >> does this make you let optimistic about twitter, the fact that jack dorsey is splitting his time. >> i think it should. this is why i'm not in there right now. but at some point i look at twitter as a value. there is a value there. there is no doubt about it. but it is a matter of when do they unlock that value. >> so jack dorsey at twitter and the fact that the stock is a problem, would that make you less likely to be a square investor? >> it would be. but it would be probably 10% of the reason why. >> okay. >> so for me, square is entering a space that is incredibly competitive. the only really advantage they have is that they are a little bit lower price. so they are competing on price. but everybody else is going to come and start lowering prices. so in payment, in general, i definitely don't want to be in square. there are much better places to be. and i don't think you could ride two horses with one fannie. >> very hard. >> you can't ride two horses on one fannie. >> i'm going to move on.
within ipos, speaking of horses and fannies. it is a rough ride for the ipos in recent years. go pro, fitbit and twitter have all fallen. so what does this say about the health of the rally, not just ipos. part of this is because there is a depressed stock price for something like a twitter, which is then heavy on a snap chat. >> these stocks and other stocks that we mention, doesn't have anything to do with the health of the broader market. you could make an argument that each one of the names on the board are stock specific names. i thought go pro could make themselves into a media company. i was 100% wrong. i also thought it was a valuable property. clearly it is a one-trick pony. and fitbit the same thing. but i still think twitter is the most valuable property. look at the market cap of go pro. what is to stop somebody from bitting $4.5 billion and taking that over full stock and barrel. >> i understand what guy is
saying. but when you look at the bigger picture, we had carter worth on the other night talking about half of the s&p 500 names are 20% to 10% off their highs. so we have bad breadth generally. and we have the rally on just a handful of stocks. so this is another symptom. and you see tonight square getting this possibly discounted, that is not to me a market that people are dying to buy things. they are buying things but not dying to buy them. as we take a break, we look at sales force and keurig, those calls are underway. we'll have more on those later on in the show. i'm moyle. you're watching "fast money," on cnbc. first in business worldwide. apple could soar over 12% in the next four months. how do they figure? the simple imagine behind the big apple call. plus tim burton, take
welcome back to "fast money." l brands, the parent company of victory's seek and bath and body works, sales increasing by 7%. but q4 guidance coming in light. the kae saying the brands are differentiated and had high emotional content. and up about 6% so far this year. the stock climbing after hours. >> thank you very much, seema mody. i'm going to pete because he's been known to enjoy a cocoa mango bath shower gel. >> i am. boy, i like that stuff. the works. >> i can smell you. >> they recently raised the numbers. so when we talk about a beat with the 55 cents on the earnings, these were numbers much lower not that long ago. they shifted them up to 51, 53, and now up to 55. one of the best management companies out there. i think karen over at tjx proved
it once again the other day and now l brands just showed us again. >> speaking of showing us again, why don't we -- >> that is fantastic. >> i wasn't joking about the cocoa mango by the way. he loves it. >> i didn't realize they sell soap. >> anything. >> yeah, sure. >> sticking with retail, target kicks off our top trades tonight. a tough day despite reporting earnings that met the street's expectations and raising the forecast. but did the reports lower sales growth. the ceo speaking today on the halftime report about the threat of amazon. take a listen. >> one of our big advantages versus amazon is we run 1800 fantastic stores with team members that take care of the guests. and we recognize that, as we think about the holiday season, while digital is really important, it looks like 90% or more of retail shopping will still take place in the physical store. >> okay, that is great. except they want digital to be
40% growth and they -- >> and they are not there. >> and he never answered courtney reagan's question in the interview about whether or not 30% next year is still on the table. >> i agree with you. the cfo did announce or talk about that on the call later. he talked about that is not something they could reach. which was the goal of 40% in terms of digital. so that is a problem. but you look at what they are doing as stores, you see the one issue that i have is margins. but when i look at this stock as it slipped back down today, that pushed to the downside. if it is still trading around $67, $68, i think it is a buy opportunity. >> how are you feeling about retail now. now that we have to add to macy's and nordstroms. >> you have to buy the names that have performed, like nike and under arm our and american eagle on a discount. but amazon gets you tech and retail and streaming. there is not a whole hell of a lot that amazon doesn't check.
>> wow. >> yes. that is tech. >> up next -- [ laughter ] >> green mountain surging more than 20% after hours but our own herb greenberg said the street is missing a very big part of the story and he'll tell us what that is? and goldman sachs is going in on apple. it would rise another 40% in the next year. doing sum of the parts math to back up the claim. we'll bring you the details. and the call of the day. much more "fast money" right after this. ♪ today, we're seeing new technologies
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welcome back to "fast money." stocks close at the highs of the day, getting a boost after the oakland fed minutes point to a december hike. the do you is up 250 points and the nasdaq and s&p were up more than 1.5%. here is what is coming up in the second half. apple surging after goldman sachs added the tech giant to the conviction buy list. could this be the boost apple needs to take the stock to new highs. we'll trade it. and the nightmare before christmas. sun edison shares are down 4% and you won't believe how low one analysis says it will go. and josh lipton is listening in on the call for sales force. what is the latest. >> the conference call, the ceo starting the call by take a victory lap, qualifying q3 an
outstanding quarter. take a listen to what he had to tell analysts on the call. >> let's be clear. sales force is the only software company selling billion dollars of dollars in crm. and we are at the center of what every company is going through. it is digital transformation. it is what every company wants to be in the 21st centuries. >> he went on to say that sales force would deliver more than $4 billion this year. it is on track to deliver more than $8 billion in retch next year. it will be one of the few software companies he said to reach $10 billion in revenue. back to you. >> has he trash talked anybody yet or talked about a potential deal? >> yeah, no, much to my disappointme disappointment, for a business software company, it is one of the better conference calls you could be on. this call did start late so we are still hoping for some trash talk. you could almost bet that is coming. if it does, i'll get back on with more headlines.
back to you. >> josh lipton, keep us posted. what is the deal. the deal was he was talking about crm being in a deal. >> there are certain stocks you can't look at in valuation. netflix is one. amazon is one. and i think sales force is another one. because if you look at it at 80 times, it is crazy expensive. but to me they are the best operator in the space. ibm since march of 2012 when the stock was north of 1200, spent $40 billion buying back almost 215 million shares of stock. and this is not monday morning quarterback. we talked about this before. sales force would and maybe still does make perfect sense for these guys. maybe does. but at this point, i think that horse has left the barn. the horse that b.k. was on -- >> one of them. one of them has fallen out of the barn. where is the other one? >> i don't know. i was only riding one. that is why i stick by that rule. very dangerous.
>> what do you think of valuation? >> the valuation is tough to get your arms around. but to guy's point, you look at certain names and we look around it, whether it is netflix or amazon. they added key executives. look at oracle. they've stolen one from them and microsoft. those are ones that could be in a deal with them. the enterprise is where they are attacking and getting the great growth. and some of the partnerships have worked out very well. so to his credit, every quarter they beat. >> sap is the king of enterprise. and it bounced back. the reason why ch wide receiver ran was because of the proposed m&a. now that didn't happen, i think you will see sap back up. a good friend of mine, up 14% year-to-date. crm 40% year-to-date. and think you see sap beginning to perform. and shares of keurig soaring. the coffee maker company beating street estimates on the top and bottom lines. sa
sara eisen has the latest from the conference call. >> we see shares soaring 20%. the context is key. the stock was down almost 70% into today. so far in 2015. executives are about to take questions on the call right now. they recognize that it is a competitive market place. the ceo brian kelly said we're still dealing with challenging market conditions. but the quarter was a beat on the top and bottom line. perhaps that is why the stock is reacting positively. nothing to write home about. pod sales down. that is the k-cups. and brewer sales with the hot brewers, down 32% from last year. everybody wants to know how the cold machine is selling. it just launched in september. remember they are in partnership with coca-cola, trying to make at-home sodas and other cold beverages. here is what the ceo brian kelly said what we could expect on numbers for cold over the next year. >> sales for the first 12 months of the launch will likely be in the range of 60,000 to 100,000
units based on the what we see today. our early reads with consumers is positive. on the profile of the beverage for both our partner brands and our new owned brands. >> modest sales numbers when it comes to how many households are going to buy cold. which is what analysts expected and that is the big sort of headline of this report. expectations were so low. perhaps investors are looking at this quarter as finally being able to put some of the problems, and that is high inventories at retailers for the brewers and lower prices, they had to lower the pricing for some of the brewers and the competition with k-cups, behind them looking forward to the holiday season, which is pretty strong for keurig, going into that and 2016, which they are giving their guidance. we'll listen for more commentsond cold machine. because that is a biggie as they start to take q&a. back to you now. >> sara eisen, thank you very much. two housekeeping notes. our brian kelly, no relationship
to the brian kelly, the ceo of green mountain. >> that would be another horse. >> i know it is confusing. when you hearing brian kelly. second housekeeping note is that mark benioff will be on "mad money" tonight. that is a must-see interview because we'll hear more about trash talking and what is the deal with the deal. because there hasn't been a deal. let's get back to herb greenberg, of pacific square research, aa long time bear on this name. herb, could this -- could this be a case, herb, that the expectations are, in fact, set so low that the company is poised now to meet them and so they are on a good path? >> i don't know. it seems to me that the stock had gotten so crushed in the past two weeks or so, that it is just coming back to where it was a number of days ago. look, i was listening to the call and just before i hung up the call, i think i heard them say they will no longer give quarterly guidance which is never a great thing to hear. they will just stick with
long-term guidance because the cold rollout is going to be up and down and up and down which i don't think is what people want to hear. as i listen to the management's presentation on the call, i came away saying to myself, this is a line we sometimes use on various companies, they are making it up as they go along. they seem to have a hard time executing. the execution over the past quarter was not that good. and they seem to be struggling with the issue of brewers. i don't think a lot of people understand the significance of brewer prices. the company on the call talked about coming out with a mini brewer, priced around $79. well walmart is already carrying a brewer from bella which is a canadian company for $39. the market confusion continues. and when we get to beating estimates because they came out and beat by 15 cents, we don't know what the quality is. back on october 20th, my partner don vickory and i put out a report raising serious questions about the earnings quality. not just your normal, they
bought back stock or taxes, no we were looking deeply at capital spending and the way they are sort of funneling it to another account and raising questions about whether the company has sort of keeping certain expenses off the income statement. so there is a lot moving here. you know, the stock was really crushed. it is up. it is a trade. but is it sustainable? is this a turn? we think the business model is broken and we don't think that has changed. >> herb, you've done unbelievable work on this stock. number one. two things that stuck out in this quarter. operating margins came in close to 19% which strong which is what you are saying. and free cash flow guidance for next year was crazy on the upper end, between 420 and $470 million. i think it was previously around 325 or $330 million. how do you wrap your head around those two things? >> i don't know how to wrap my head around it. because until we see the 10 k, which is not out yet, you will
not understand what the real dynamics of the numbers are. so right now we look at a company like this and we say the numbers are what the numbers are. based on the issues we raised, about the earnings quality, i would say anything they say, you have to basically take, watch, read, go deeper than an earnings report. and the headline of beating numbers. >> so you just don't believe them? bottom line? >> look, i don't know. we don't what is going to be in the s.e.c. filings. there is a -- there is a line item called construction in progress. i would suggest that investors, if they were very serious, take a look at that line item. it is not in the press release but it will be in the 10-k. >> herb, great to speak with you. thank you. >> sure. >> herb greenberg. he is not the only one who has a bear thesis on the name. david einhorn has been a long time bear and in his most revent investor letter he talk about
green mountain short. and he talked about the average 102. so that short is paying offhand so many will. would what you would be inclined to believe? not believe the company, after what herb puts forth. >> guy talks about the margin and the free cash flow. those things are very impressive. that is why the stock is moving the way it is. i think you have to keep in mind, as well as the huge investment coke put into the company, i think it is 17%. that is a significant piece. so at some point, today it hit 52-week lows. it got down into the 39s. and now here toward 48. i think that is something you keep in mind as we watch this stock to the down side. >> as a good thing. >> does coke ever say we'll just take it. >> it hasn't happened so far. you talk about this as a backstop for so long now. >> pods are down. brewers are down. the cold product is down. they had to discount prices, i
would be a seller of this pop. this was so geared up to rally on anything that was signifying anything positive. i didn't see a lot of positive in it. >> brian kelly? >> well competition matters. that is the thing. and it doesn't matter -- you could dig as far into the financials as you want and question all of them, but the fact there are multiple products out there that could do the exact same thing that they do at a cheaper price, to me says stay away from this. don't even buy with guy's market. >> serious. >> i think they used it on the horses. >> still ahead, it is the one stock that is down more than 80% in the past year and now one analyst said it is about to face a major credit event right before year end. we'll tell you the one name that could truly become a nightmare before christmas. plus, discount retail problems, dollar general had a rough time this year and traders are betting on even more pain ahead. we'll tell you what has them so worried. more "fast money" up next.
or alphabet. and while they trade at 35 times. and amazon traded a thousand pe and that begs the question should apple be valued different. and apple is much more than a hard wear company, they are on the path and very good position to monetize each user through services and software and things like that. >> it is all about services. >> monetization. and they are talking about 500 million. and there is a giddy-up. they are going to have the hardware and people coming back and upgrading throughout this entire cycle. it is all about going forward. we talk about pipelines all of the time. they are talking about monetizing everything from the tv, then they go to the music and obviously some day in the future, we'll go to other areas. so it is not just the hardware company that people are saying right now. that is what their thesis is based on. >> i'm going to push back. >> yeah. >> because the problem is they talk about this and they talk about this but we have not seen it really pan out yet. and so right now their core is
the iphone and they are a hard wear company. >> i think in front of us right now is a hard wear company. but i think what they are talking about, because if you read in the note, they weren't talking about in the next three or six months, they are talking about long-term. they are talking about monetizing these 500 million as a service company. >> do you buy it? >> no. do you want me to say they should trade at 1,000 pe. no. here is what i don't like about it. amazon trades at a thousand pe. it should be a million dollar stock. here is my point. we're at the peak. where was goldman sachs years ago on this call. when you start to change valuation metrics at the high, b.k. gets scared. and secondly, what you brought up, apple has not proven at all they could monetize this. they are a phone company and that is it. and they are talking about building a car now. now they are a manufacturing company. so me it is modelled, not to say apple is not a great company. i use their products, i think it
is fantastic, but at the highs when you change valuation, you have to be worried. up next, the pain conditions for sun edison and one analyst is saying there could be a nightmare before christmas in the name. that analyst will explain why right after this break. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.
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welcome back to "fast money." a wild day for solar stocks. sun edison rising on shares that blackstone had taken a stake in the debt. that was denied. shares then fell. our next guest says it could get worse. they have a sell rating on the stock and a very provocative note out this morning. following the sell rating note that came out last week. gordon, it is great to have you. >> thank you for having me. >> last week the concern was the liquidity and you say it is happening much sooner than you thought. what changed between last week and this week. >> we got pressure last week when we downgraded. so we took a look through the companies 10-x and when we found was scary. they took out debt from goldman sachs in august of this year, one year debt at 15% interest rate which is a company in distress. and in addition to that, we
found out the yield sub sidderary certain had to put up 20% capital for an investment in a warehouse and sun edison said they are doing $6 million worth of warehouse capacity which means $1.6 billion of capital. and we don't see how they could bring this together. >> and what do you think happened? last week you thought they had two or three quarters at best? >> that is still our best case scenario. and the point in an e-mail to me. you said what about the take or pay payments. if you look at the payments with the terp and the obligations associated with the assets, which are about $1 billion, terp has about $1.4 billion in capital, including the pro forma cash and the undrawn resolvers. so once they actually address those assets, their balance sheet is under significant pressure. so even with the take or pays, we think they are made to be broken and we saw that back in
2009 and 10 with the poly silicone companies. >> so do you think they could make a case there is a material change given viven reports there was a did he selleration compared to cellar city and sun run. could they get out of the deal and could that buy them some time? >> that is a great question. it is a topic of debate. we think no. we think blackstone holds the key to them getting out of the deal. we said this time and time again, we don't think blackstone will let them out of the deal. it would be a dumb decision by blackstone to do so. we think the deal will close and that would require -- >> why would it be a dumb stition on the part of blackstone? >> because i think they would not get the amount of money they get if they let the deal close as is. given what happened with solar city and sun edison, after the announced acquisition of viv int, if it they would have let sun edison out of the deal, they could not get the same amount of capital. i think they will force the deal -- not force but it but
abide by the deal and the deal will close. >> gordon, we have to let you go. thanks. good to hear from you. always provocative calls. two or three quarters. that is not much time. we didn't think it would go down to two and change. >> nathan did. he was steadfast in his view. it has become an option, pete could speak to this, i don't know if there are options, it is binary in my opinion. sun power, look at the guidance they gave time warner, just signed a deal to plaque three plants in china. to me spr is up. >> sun power is down, it is one of the better ones. but if you look at solar city, down 50% year-to-date. and sun edison i don't have to rehash. but first solar, if you are in the space, they are doing something right, whether the client mix or however they manage their debt, they are doing it right. >> they didn't leverage themselves, that is the difference. when you look at first solar, they didn't overleverage
themself and put themselves in the position of sun edison. and there is options on there, very active. >> and you know what we call that? >> oh, boy. >> watch when we do it together. you know what we call that? >> giddy-up. >> moving on. shares of dollar general down more than 20% since august and traders are betting it could fall lower. mike kuo is in austin, shrinking because he has been losing weight. good job, mike. >> and will the stock lose any value. and that is what options traders are betting when they traded six times the average daily put volume. the weekly, the week after the week of earnings, paying $1.35 it. was just over $62 when the trade took place. the stock could fall more than 7% after they announce earnings. >> thank you. mike in austin. >> is he okay. is he losing it for the right reasons? >> all of the right reasons. >> diet and some is exercise.
>> he starts dancing again. >> don't be gelling, gee. >> mike, thanks. what do you think of the dollar store space in light of retail environment right now. >> it is not my favorite. i would go toward the walmart space because i think they have -- the sentiment has been so bad, that all they have to do is change a couple of things so i weather be in walmart than general dollar. coming up, traders tell you what they are watching for tomorrow, right after the break. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade.
it is time for the final trade. around the horn. pit boss. >> pharma names have been trading well. i think pfizer has some upside to it. giddy-up. >> 386. >> southern so, yield under 5%. either way, the fed moves or don't move, you still have to hunt for yield. southern. >> beakers? >> for me, i'm looking in the oil patch. and it is phillips 66. they will benefit for crude oil going lower. particularly wti. so you buy them. >> i'm glad mike kuo is okay. to piggy back pete's pfizer. allergan and then jack lew comes out and makes comments about
inversions. but it stands on its own two feet without pfizer. agn on this side. >> see you back tomorrow for more "fast money." mean time, don't go anywhere. my mission is simple -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica. people want to make friends, i'm trying to save you money. my job isn't to just entertain or educate but teach and put in the perspective so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. how long can you keep good stocks down? how long can they stay in the