Skip to main content

tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  November 20, 2015 6:00am-9:01am EST

6:00 am
>> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is squawk box. >> good morning, everyone. welcome to squawk box here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew is off today. we have breaking news at this hour. reports that ten attackers have taken 170 people hostage in a luxury hotel in mali. this is taking place at the radisson blu hotel. the embassy is telling it's staff and all the citizens in the country to shelter in place. we'll continue to follow this developing story. >> it is a largely muslim country. >> 60%. >> it's impossible to avoid talking about things like this and there are reports that some hostages are being released, if you can resite passages from the
6:01 am
koran. so by early indications it may have something to do with islamic extremists. >> it's especially big news in france today and the language of mali is french. it's a french territory. the forces went into mali just two years ago to try to clean things up after jihadists had taken control over the northern part of the country which i think is mostly dessert. i think everybody lives in the south. michelle joins us from paris right now where i'm sure this -- everything seems -- the world seems much smaller to all of us now michelle but i'm sure to people in paris, mali seems like just another part of what happened last week. >> that's absolutely correct, joe. it's huge news here because remember there's a long connection between mali and france. it's a former french colony and two years ago troops went in to try to clean up the northern part of the country because it
6:02 am
had been taken over by jihadists so that's getting a lot of coverage here. i should explain where i am. i'm inside the national assembly because we are going to interview a right wing member of the parliament in just a few minutes. he is formerly from the government to talk about the fact that they have extended the state of emergency voted to do so just yesterday here at the national assembly and the senate is expected to do so later today and that's been pretty controversial because it gives more power to the state and there's concerns about whether or not it's going to tramp on civil liberties at this point. a couple of pieces of news that we just learned in the last few minutes. the french prosecutor say they have now found three dead bodies in that building in northern paris where they did that massive raid the other day and we're getting more details now about who we believe is the female suicide bomber that took part in that raid or was in that raid. she is 27 years old and it is
6:03 am
believed she is the cousin of the man being described by police as the organizers of the terror attacks that occurred here in paris on friday which left 129 dead. today marks one week agatha the terrorist attacks occurred and we wanted to show you two new magazine covers that came out today. they put out this cover and it's an image of a sidewalk cafe that's become very well-known in france in the last week and the headline leads and now what do we do? and of course french cafe sitting at a sidewalk cafe is a very, very french activity and then the weekly magazine is out today and almost seems to answer the question. it is in blue, white, and red the cover, and it says below, beneath, we will live with it. so this country still continues to graham with what happened here one week ago. guys back to you.
6:04 am
>> michelle, thank you very much. she has been covering the situation for us all week and will continue to bring us updates as things develop there in france. let's get to some business news this morning. among today's top market stories ecb president mario draghi giving his strongest hint yet that the central bank will unveil more measures next month. speaking in frankfurt, draghi arguing that the ecb is ready to act quickly to boost inflation in the euro zone. among the possible tools mentioned, changes to the asset purchase program and to the deposit rate. the next ecb meeting is set for december 3rd. as for the united states central bank, the federal reserve vice chairman stanley fisher says that the fomc has done everything it can to telegraph an interest rate hike. if that one enough for you he's telling you listen up people these are the hints. so much so that he says that the other central bankers around the world are getting impatient. >> in the relatively near future, probably some major
6:05 am
central banks will begin gradually moving away from near zero interest rates. we have done everything we can to avoid surprising the markets and governments when we move. >> speaking to a conference in san francisco, he did note that no decision on a fed rate raise has been made. the next fomc announcement is scheduled for december 16th but we have continued to hear this drum beat from every one of the federal reserve fomc members that we talked to this week. now to the markets themselves, new numbers today show that investors pull $2.2 billion from us. stock funds just in the last week. this marks the second week in a row of outflows. >> at least we didn't do that. >> emphasizes negative deposit rates, improved qe. so you can do the transmission of the asset purchase program works better. that's negative rates now. >> right. >> we have seen some. >> we didn't have to go that
6:06 am
far. >> but the world is upside down when you start paying people to -- >> hold their money. >> keep their money. >> yeah. >> it shows you how dyer it is. this i would say is a direct reaction to the possibility of a slow down. >> based on this. i think so too. but it makes europe all the more hopeful that we will actually raise rates because that in effect would help them out as well. >> did you see the ten year, though? >> yeah. >> i think it's almost -- two year is a record low but it's in at 40 basis points now, isn't it? >> i think so. >> how are we doing at 226? getting like japan almost. >> at the same time the market is expecting a rate hike but check it out. >> as we said last friday, a week ago, four weeks now -- >> right. expected hike. >> i don't know what i bet on, you know what, one day at a time. one day at a time at this point. >> last week i gave you grief seven days ago and --
6:07 am
>> i woen guarentee that i know anything between now and tomorrow. >> no. >> four weeks from now in this world. some stocks to watch. i'm going to go back into the -- where i can find some solace. things i understand a little bit. like nike giving back to investors during the holiday season. the dow component announcing a $12 billion stock buy back. and also by 1% and we'll talk about this later. i'm sure that i think morgan probably going to -- this will change the make up of the dow in terms of consumer stocks because when it goes down in half it won't have as big of an influence on price moves and other parts of the index are now
6:08 am
having more weight. >> gap cutting it's earnings forecast. blaming the strong dollar. the companies ceo says he slooking for materisloo is looking for material improvement. ross stores beating on the top and bottom line but the retailer cautions a fourth quarter could be challenging saying a highly promotional holiday season is expected. shares of workday under pressure. the human resources software maker posting a bigger than expected loss and offering and weak current revenue guidance. horizon pharma decision comes after a court ruling involving the use of a poison pill came out in their favor. and google announcing vm ware. the co-founder will run the cloud unit as the search giant moves to take on the industry leader amazon. green is a google board member and will lead the newly combined
6:09 am
divisions of cloud businesses including google for work, google cloud platform, and google apps. >> let's get a check on the markets this morning and see where things stand with the futures. yesterday the markets ended barely changed. they were down by a couple of points and did break a three day winning streak for the dow and the nasdaq but you can see there are some green arrows with the dow futures up by 68 points. the s&p futures up by over 5 and the nasdaq up by over 15 points. take a look at the early trading in europe and at this point you'll see that things are relatively flat. in france, the cac is trading down by about .2%. in germany the dax is up by .1%. the ftse is flat and in italy, the ftse mib is down by .6%. overnight in asia, you saw that the nikkei ended up by .1%. stocks were higher in china with the hang seng up by 1.1%. oil prices were something to
6:10 am
watch yesterday. you did see oil prices end a little bit lower yesterday. the december contract for wti was all the way down at $40.58 cents. today it's at 40.22. at the end of the session today you'll see wti roll to the january contract and that's been trading a little bit higher so we'll see what moves we get there. also what's happening in the bond market as joe mentioned, the yield coming under pressure. you're now looking at the ten year trading at 2.255 to be exact. the two year was higher in the late afternoon session for that yield. it was sitting just under .9% but obviously people watching this very closely as we do get closer to a potential fed rate hike. check out the dollar. yesterday there was some pressure on the dollar. dollar index lost about .5% in it's biggest drop since late october. the dollar is stronger fweagain
6:11 am
the euro today. dollar is down fwens the yen at 122.81 and gold prices which were slightly higher yesterday are up another $6.80. $1,084.70 an ounce. >> ken griffin telling cnbc in a rare sit down interview that the fed waited to hike because it doesn't want to paint itself into a corner. >> if we have to head back toward zero, that means that some shock has taken place or the economy is shockingly turned south. and i think that if that were to happen, i think that would be a cause for concern because it will be perceived the fed has fewer degrees of freedom to reignite growth. so i think one of the reasons the fed has waited so long to raise rates thus far is to combat that very concern. >> okay. offered him a chair thinking that on vbviously he's not goino take it and then surprising
6:12 am
everyone he sat down for the interview. let's bring in the executive director of u.s. equity and derivative strategy at ubs and boris -- i was up until 11:00 last night and have to say that first thing in the morning. >> boris, you do it fast too. >> you're from new york. >> we're both from the midwest. >> proudly. >> okay. >> there you go. >> so i'm looking at these yields, 49 basis points. ten year. >> right. >> i understand that maybe europe at this point can use a little help on its currency because maybe there's a slow down from what's happening there with tourism. people not going after restaurants, but this is something we were worried about before. 2.25 for us and 49 basis points for germany. >> fixed income markets and the
6:13 am
smartest markets in the world an they're just telling you that even if the fed moves it's going to be very much a one and done. i think ken griffin is absolutely right. the only reason they haven't moved is because they want to make sure that they don't repeat the boj debacle which is you hike rates and you're forced to have to come back down to zero. so one of the reasons why i think the euro doesn't have that much more down side to go is the market has already discounted the idea. i'm going to do the hike and there's nothing much more left for awhile. >> what is going to happen if the fed doesn't do anything? what does that do to the markets? >> created a massive short squeeze in the dollar. we saw lal bit of a symbol of that yesterday when the dollar collapsed. but the fed doesn't hike only i think if we have horrendous shock. >> another horrendous -- >> that's the one thing that nobody can handicap and that is the one thing that could freeze
6:14 am
all economic activity. we've already seen complaining that a lot is going on. that's the only thing that really kind of holds the fed back. assuming that we have a normal environment we're on a glide path definitely. >> you saw the magazine cover in paris. one of the caves outside of it one of the terrorists tries to kill this woman and the gun jams and she escapes but watching it is surreal because it looks like some really horrible movie. >> so that would explain maybe the market action too. >> yes. my thought was this was going to happen. i thought the dollar rally would happen but the markets were anticipating that a month ahead
6:15 am
of time and that's why you see the dollar rally stall. you're seeing the yields flatten out and equities going up. >> it's always been about liquid quiddity i think. the markets. you should never fight the fed. it's up, oh my god. and that was the old cartoon. the stock market sold off on a -- an asteroid was going to strike the earth and destroy it but it rallied in the afternoon when the money supply was low. >> i think we have to take a step back here and look at this week. you had just untold tragedy a week ago and yet the equity markets have had an absolutely phenomenal week. there's resilience there and when you look at the fed the equity markets expect a hike and not to hike in december would send what we think would be a negative signal to equity markets but then looking forward, we take them at their word in terms of data
6:16 am
dependency. we expect more hikes as we get into 2016 but they said they wanted this flexibility and they're going to have to manage the process. >> what do you attribute the resil yen sy to after such a horrific event? market has been up every single day. only one and done. what else? it's not earnings. it's not the prospect for things being better any time soon actually, to a certain extent it is earnings. we feel that the fourth quarter marks the trough and when you look to 2016 the bar is not set that high in terms of expectations and if you get a mere normalization and boris eluded to this in the currency markets the fx effects go away and energy effects go to way it's easy to see where you get to a path where you grow at 5% and coming off a year like this that will be enough to keep stocks going higher. >> this was a consolidation
6:17 am
year. >> absolutely. >> but energy, nice tail wind. i don't know if you saw the note. >> it hasn't been a tail win. that's been one of the problems. >> it's a problem in the sense that the industrial demand but on a more macro scale if it stays at these lows, they were arguing that it could go down to 20 this winter because we're at 65 all day outside and there's no demand. >> let me ask you, number one, how is the sanders campaign going? >> number two. >> global warming worse than terror? >> it's apples and oranges comparison. of course terror is worse right now but global warming is a much longer problem. >> so to defeat isis should we drive a prius? >> a tesla. >> stay with that. >> absolutely. >> all right. thanks guys. >> thank you gentlemen. when we come back this morning, continuing coverage of this morning's breaking news in
6:18 am
africa. report that ten attackers have taken 170 people hostage in a luxury hotel in mali. plus our news maker of the morning, jeb bush will join us in studio. stay tuned. squawk box will be right back. when you're not confident you have complete visibility into your business, it can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at&t's innovative solutions connect machines and people... to keep your internet of things in-sync, in real-time. leaving you free to focus on what matters most.
6:19 am
6:20 am
6:21 am
>> tom, thank you very much for being here today. >> good to be here becky. >> we continued to watch oil prices. you know? we talked to people about six months ago and said as soon as oil production slows down and shuts down in some of the wells you're going to see prices pick back up. that's not been the case. you're looking at wti sitting about $40 this morning at $40.08. what's going on? >> well, the decline in production in the u.s. has not come along as fast as people thought. it's about half as far down as we were first hearing. even a month ago. there was a belief that u.s. production had probably contracted by about 600,000 barrels a day. it's less than half of that at
6:22 am
this point. and i think that's a big factor. that was a surprise. even the government statistics were beginning to look like it was down and then there's been some correction. i think that's the biggest single factor. and then also we're also not seeing any change yet in either russia or opec. so i think that is the -- that's why you're hearing this lower for longer thesis. that said, the contraction in capital spending globally has progressed and it's very hard for me to imagine we'll go through all of 2016 without seeing some real effects from that diversion of capital because the imbedded decline is out there and i think we'll see some effects probably by mid 2016. >> even though you're talking about a rebound in prices, you're not talking about getting
6:23 am
anywhere near what we wrused to consider normal. you're talking about $50 for wti by the first half of 2016. >> i think that's right, becky. something like that and then if you get back out to the end of the year, going into 2017, maybe we get into the 60 to $70 range. >> and that is simply because there's just so much more oil supply than we have seen in the past or is this a reflection of poor demand as well? >> it's also a reflection that the industry is becoming much more efficient at developing oil at these lower prices. there's been a lot of innovation that's come along. the other point that was mentioned a few years ago about the goldman talk about a lower price -- >> $20. >> if we were to test into the
6:24 am
30s, i doubt we'll get as low as the $20 test other than for a very brief time but if we were to get that, it's, in all likelihood going to create a real pressure on opec because opec has a higher cost structure in general when you really factor in the cost to run their government, their security needs and so on and all of that would create a real problem i think within opec itself and maybe create the path to a real focus on how to get to a more workable and sustainable price in that 50 to $70 range. somewhere down the road. >> thank you so much for joining us today again. >> coming up the race for the white house in light of the last week. republican presidential hopeful jeb bush will join us in studio. governor bush will be with us when squawk box comes right back. the future belongs to the fast.
6:25 am
6:26 am
6:27 am
and to help you accelerate, we've created a new company... one totally focused on what's next for your business. the true partnership where people,technology and ideas push everyone forward. accelerating innovation. accelerating transformation. accelerating next. hewlett packard enterprise.
6:28 am
>> break news at this hour. reports that ten attackers have taken 170 people hostage at a luxury hotel in mali. this is taking place in the country's capital. we'll continue to follow this developing story. but again 170 hostages taken in the capitol of mali. >> presidential candidate jeb bush urged the obama administration to be aggressive in it's approach to fighting isis. governor bush assisting that boots on the ground in syria are necessary to win the war on terrorism and joining us this morning former florida governor and presidential candidate jeb bush. i would have said what a week it has been and some say it's an
6:29 am
opening for republican candidates when it's national security. something like this. p this is a time when the republicans are typically stronger. can you you can make the right case to the american people it's probably something that needs to be done here. i don't know if everyone saw all of that. >> i think the case is that we need a serious leader. and have a serious plan. three months ago i was at the reagan library and i layed out a plan to do what we need to do which is to destroy isis and do it there. they get their energy by consolidating power in the size of indiana and that requires a no fly zone which this president has been reluctant to do. safe zones. the refugee problem isn't going to go away until we create safe haven in the country. it allows us to build an army supported by the arab neighbors
6:30 am
as well as europe lead by the united states and we should do this. we should do it in iraq an in syria and there's specific things that we need to do that the president has been reluctant and instead of that he basically accuses anybody that disagrees with him to be a warmonger when, in fact, we're at war already. we declared war on us. this is the challenge that america needs to realize. this is a war against western civilization. against freedom. our vulnerability is our freedom. our ability to interact as we see fit and that's what they despise and that's what they'll attack and this mali case is just another example of it and frankly the whole idea that we shouldn't be sympathetic to religious minorities in the middle east that are being persecuted, beheaded, raped, that somehow that's not a noble idea, i just reject out of hand. there are no christian terrorists wandering around the world trying to take out peace loving muslims. this is a serious problem.
6:31 am
it does not mean that we should be disrespectful of muslims in our country or anything like that. in fact i find it awful that donald trump is suggesting that reregister people. that haunts back to a time that no one wants to go back to but we have to be vigilant about this, protecting the homeland and fighting the fight in syria and iraq. >> all of these issues have now come back to the fore in the fact that you have some republicans antipatriot act. pro-snowden and isolationist, that is a rough weak for some of the candidates that staked their claim on those issues. >> changed the position. when you're running for president consistency, being authentic, having thought through your ideas and defending them is appropriate because when you're president you can't bend with the win. you have to make tough decisions and in this case this is not
6:32 am
about popularity -- >> is there anyway to do this without being subjected to the criticism that -- by taking some of these actions you're the next generation of jihadists are being born by your actions? that's what we'll hear from president obama all the time. >> sure. i would say the opposite is true. there are 4 million people uprooted in syria and they're in refugee camps and if this chaos continues in syria then that result is that those will be breeding grounds for the next generation. millions of people in camps in jordan and turkey and lebanon and 800,000 heading to europe. many of whom could be imbedded that are terrorists going to place where is europe hasn't figured out a way to asimulate people into the european culture. so we have a visa waiver program where a german citizen five years from now or belgian or something can come here fairly
6:33 am
easily. we're vulnerable to this and i think dealing with this issue on a global basis lead by the united states is the way to go. >> lead by france at this point. which who would have thought. we're having trouble getting our cooperation. how did that switch? >> the french are pretty tough. >> but have we had trouble convincing them last time and now they're having trouble convincing us. >> and meanwhile -- the nato alliance that has kept the world relatively safe for a long, long while seems to be unraveling and there's broader security issues than this and this is a signal of whether we have the will in the west to defend our values and way of life. >> how would you launch this attack against isis. that's something i can't get my head around. >> it's not easy because you have different circumstances in iraq than in syria. the first thing i would do would be go to the military and say give me options and give me
6:34 am
options to destroy isis and not say give me options but no civilian kaz crucausalities. give me options but we can't have boots on the ground. the problem now is there's so many conditions placed that it's a pathetic effort. it's incremental and just to run out the clock and my guess is talking to military advisors as i have that you could do this with a relatively small american footprint. emphasis on special operators and you would have to build up a robust local force that would be supported in a unified way by the persian gulf states and egypt and jordan. no one trusts us and no one is going to follow suit and put aside the europeans, the arab world which is directly threatened by isis and the brutality of assad we have to act. i don't think we can do that this with concert with russia. >> do you decide that assad can
6:35 am
stay and put this plan in play. >> i don't think so. i think ultimately there needs to be a political solution where assad leaves and i mean, he's the one that has killed 200 plus thousand people. the president talks about how people don't have a plan. had he engaged to support the syrian free army we wouldn't have the situation that we had today. the russians have engaged and t they're able to provide more support to the assad regime. our fight is against radical islamic terrorism of any form and we have to be steadfast in this. >> the kurds aren't willing to go in on these fronts. >> there are the remnants of the
6:36 am
syrian free army that we are supporting. the training program that we did which was no doubt in the history books one of the great failures is a separate issue here but if you put all the conditions on that as well you're not going to get the desired result. if you're looking at this as a law enforcement exercise, just kind of managing it rather than leading an effort to destroy a group that is going to create problems. my heart goes out to the people at that hotel. think about it, they're going door to door, hotel room to hotel room determining whether you're a muslim or not, maybe treating a muslim different just as it was in kenya and if you're a christian, you're dead. this is the world we're in now and i think we need to be much more steadfast about this. >> so many things to discuss. number one, i don't know what happens to europe now. but the other thing is that we're the enemy now of europe in term of surveillance and they din have the type of surveillance that we have. now there's a debate going on
6:37 am
about encryption and we're asking google and apple whether there's a way where authorities can get in there as a last resort and they're saying absolutely not because anybody could get in. if they could get in anybody could get in and we can't protect the people. >> this is the vsnowden issue where europe pushed back hard against us and they're trying to protect market share and accommodate european interest and the simple fact is that isis encrypts. so this is what we talked about. exactly what we talked about when there was a debate about the patriot act reauthorization that the terrorists could protect their communications and make our efforts to protect the homeland harder. we need to reevaluate. the meta data program ought to consider to be kept as is. it dies in ten days. rather than weaken our position -- the president needs
6:38 am
to explain how civil liberties are protected and why it's important that these programs keep us safe. he hasn't done that. he hasn't obliterated the programs of course and he gets some credit for maintaining some of the provisions of the patriot act that were started under my brother. but he doesn't defend them either so there's a lot of mistrust about washington and people believe what they -- they hear things and they believe it. we need a president that's residence l resolute and acts on it. he should go to the nsa and talk to the patriots keeping us safe. there's a lot of work done that doesn't get a lot of credit. >> in an election year, it's tough because this is a time where sometimes the actions that may be more extreme, people are taking resinate with the american people and in the past maybe there is internment under fdr or maybe it's tough for an
6:39 am
immigration debate. it's tough to have it right now. >> but look you're talk about internment. you talk about closing mosques. you talk about registering people. and that's jus wrong. i don't care about campaigns. >> to govern -- >> it's not a question of toughness. it's manipulating people's angst and their fears. that's not strength. that's weakness. and look, campaigns are important for sure. we're electing a president but there are things that are important as it relates to the values that we have as a country that make us special and unique and we should not and we will never abandon them in the pursuit of this fight. we don't have to. we can protect our freedoms here. >> now you sound like the president in certain contexts where for how long did he -- civilians are being slaughtered day in and day out and now he compares republicans and
6:40 am
orphans. >> we have two competing sets of pessimism in this country on the political realm. on the left we are barrack obama that's constantly saying that anybody that disagrees with him is bad or has bad motives and on the right we have an emerging group as well that would tell us that we should abandon american values. i think that we need to be resolute in the fight against islamic terrorists. call it what it is. create a strategy. deal with it. we have the strength and capabilities to do this but in protection of our values and not abandonment of them. >> and we need security before -- we need safety -- can i ask you about tpp, reasonable guy, i don't think he is a -- i don't think of him as a far left -- it's weird, the far left and the far right are both antittp. i don't understand how they come together. that's the one bipartisan issue that we have is that they're both against global trade.
6:41 am
how do we do it right? what should i tell him -- >> i don't know the specifics of the steel industry and how it's impacted. there's a huge overcapacity in asia. >> all the trade deal versus been bad for the u.s. worker. we can't just say well manufacturing, there's nothing we can do about it. >> i think we should focus on the tax code. the most convoluted legal system and creates real uncertain tand doubt for manufacturers. job training programs created in the mid 20th century. an educational system that yields a dismal result and budget deficits as far as the eye can see. we're 49th in the world in the ease of starting a business. russia and afghanistan is ahead of us for crying out loud. trade agreements by themselves aren't going to solve those problems. as it relates to the ttp, there's two things that compelled me to be supportive
6:42 am
without knowing the details of it. one, there's many more terrorists being taken down in the asian countries and the ttp countries than here in the united states and number two if we abandon asia which would be the signal we would send if we don't support this agreement the trading system would become a chinese driven and influence trading system in the region and that's bad for the region and it's certainly bad for us and bad for our national security. >> governor, yesterday, ken griffin said on our air that he's narrowed it down to two people he's considered throwing his support behind soon. marco rubio. >> ken, i'd love to have your help. where are you? >> how are things going on the campaign trail and how is fund-raising going? >> fine and the campaign trail in the places that i'm focused is going very well. i just spent two days in new hampshire and there you get to complete a sentence in the english language and maybe using
6:43 am
an adjective and adverb. >> please don't get me into that. nevada is fantastic and so is south carolina. so, yeah, kind of like different than debate where is there's a tension to get it all in. so i have -- i'm making good progress and i feel comfortable where i am. >> i need your help where ever you are. >> you're headed somewhere else. i think we're supposed to get out earlier but if we can get you to stay we'll just keep talking. >> we'd have you here until 9:00. >> bigger fish to fry. >> where's the other guy. what happened? >> he's on vacation. >> oh, andrew. >> sorkin. >> yeah, he's not here. >> i can't believe i missed him. >> that's unbelievable. >> thank you. we'll see you again soon. >> when we come back this morning the story that's likely to drive the trading day ahead but first as we head to a break,
6:44 am
a quick check of what's happening in the european markets now. you can see that things are stronger bolth in london and germany. stick around, squawk box will be right back. other wireless carriers make families share data. some way to say happy holidays. switch to t-mobile now and get 4 lines with up to 6gb each, and no sharing. just $30 bucks a line. that's 6gb each plus unlimited streaming with binge on. stream netflix, hbo now, hulu, and many more without using data. get 6gb each just $30 bucks a line, plus free video streaming. ditch your data worries with t-mobile.
6:45 am
hi watson. annabelle, your birthday is tomorrow. i'm turning seven. what did you ask for? a princess. and a pony. you like things that begin with p. i like pink frosting too. will you have a cake? yeah. i was too sick to have one last year. the data your doctor shared shows you are healthy. are you a doctor? no. i help doctors identify cancer treatments. i want to be a doctor someday. i can help with that too. watson, i like you. can a a subconscious. mind? a knack for predicting the future. reflexes faster than the speed of thought. can a business have a spirit? can a business have a soul? can a business be...alive?
6:46 am
6:47 am
>> welcome back. it's time for the squawk planner. one report on the economic planner today. the kansas city fed survey is coming up at 11:00 eastern time. central bankers out in force once again. st. louis fed president and bill dudley will both make remarks today.
6:48 am
the consumer with foot locker and abercrombie coming up today. when we return today, tis the season for shopping. we'll go hunting for names to stuff in your stocking this year. squawk box back after a quick break. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ but what if you could see more of what you wanted to know? with fidelity's new active trader pro investing platform, the information that's important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier.
6:49 am
it's your idea powered by active trader pro. another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. call our specialists today to get up and running.
6:50 am
6:51 am
6:52 am
you are just waking up and have not heard, there's a developing story from northern africa, north western africa this morning, ten attackers took 170 people hostage in a luxury hotel in the capital of mali. that's taking place at the raddison blu hotel in the country's capital. we'll continue to follow this developing story. we are also focusing on business news this morning. as we watch what's been happening on wall street in this month's sectornomics, we have names to make your portfolio happy this holiday season. >> let's shop in the consumer discretionary sector. the past decade black friday through the end of the year, discretionary stocks trade in line broader with the s&p 50080% of the time addi ining 2% on average, but walt disney, up nine of the past ten years,
6:53 am
averaging -- oh, it's averaged a 4.5% gain, and, you know, we got this new "star wars" movie coming out in a few weeks, so it's a name to consider again. two other media names, news corp. and omnicom prempl well as well. lowe's pops as well, trading 90% higher over the past decade with a 5% increase on average acco. check out good year tire and rubber, gaining 8.4% on average and up nine of the past ten seasons. cold weather and holiday travel, people need new travels. ed underperformers this time of year, retail names like best buy and kohl's falling 70% over the decade and average losses of 2%. two names to steer clear of. back to you. >> all right, morgan, thank you.
6:54 am
appreciate that. among today's top stories trending on other places, facebook is attempting to ease the pain of the brakeup. the social network may offer a new feature sparing you from seeing their former partner's posts and pictures in their new feeds. they test the breakup protection on mobile devices. what a world. on mobile devices deciding whether to offer to the 1.5 billion users. >> i know how to do that already. unfriend them. good-bye. >> yesterday, we talked about tinder and match, and the guy said, well -- >> match.com ceo here. >> said, you know, tinder goes from the late 20s up to 35. >> 35. >> match goes up to, like, early 30s to the 50s. i said, well, you know, what's going on with the sexy seniors? what about tinder for seniors, and i went home, there's stitch. something called stitch,
6:55 am
referring to it as tinder for seniors. >> yes. which you immediately forwarded to me. >> i did. we are ahead of a lot of the things, but you -- can you explain this? cofounder of stitch says it's much more -- it's about much more than just swiping right. what's that mean? >> okay, when -- the way the apps work, including tinder, is you see them, a picture pops up, if you like them, you swipe right, if you don't, you swipe left, hot or not type of button is what they are talking about, they are saying that seniors are more intelligent how they go about doing this so it's not a hot or not. >> enof the world's coming. >> yes. the apocalypse is upon us. i agree. >> the 12 horsemen. >> right. talk about the force with "star wars," latest installment has record advanced presales, could be the highest grossing release of all time. we are four weeks from the force
6:56 am
awakens debut, selling more tickets than any other movie before its release. to accommodate demand, a number of theaters will be open around the clock in the movie's first week adding screenings at 2:00 a.m. and 5:00 a.m. hey, 5:00 a.m. works for me. >> it does. >> not offbeat. coming up, stocks on a good run this week, see if the bulls finish strong, plus, more on this morning's top story, another disturbing and brutal attack, a major hostage situation in mali this time. stay tuned. "squawk box" will be right back. the future belongs to the fast.
6:57 am
6:58 am
and to help you accelerate, we've created a new company... one totally focused on what's next for your business. the true partnership where people,technology and ideas push everyone forward. accelerating innovation. accelerating transformation. accelerating next. hewlett packard enterprise.
6:59 am
7:00 am
mali, hostages, a luxury hotel in the capital. updates straight ahead. >> on track to hike rates in december, but europe's central bank headed in the other direction. draghi hinting at more stimulus. details coming up. >> adele's fans have to cough up the $10 for today's release. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box." welcome back to "squawk box," everyone, this is cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm becky quick with joe, and andrew is off today. we have breaking news from north africa, following reports ten
7:01 am
attackers took 170 people hos tamg, and three killed in the attack that began this morning at the raddison blu hotel. 80 hostages have been freed so far. we'll continue to bring you updates as the story developing. among the other top stories, business stories, this time it's the ecb and president mario draghi stimulating more stimulus measures could be coming next month. speaking in frankfurt this morning, draghi argues the ecb is acting quickly to boost inflation in the euro zone among tools mentioned now, changes to the asset purchase program and deposit rate, negative rates. he made positive comments about using negative rates to help with qe. the next ecb meeting is set for december 3rd. u.s. authorities are investigatiinvestigat
7:02 am
investigating german supply maker in the emission rigging scandal for volkswagen. that according to a roiter report. they are examining that company, the largest auto supplier, knew or participated in volkswagen's efforts to rig emissions tests. watching shares of nike. the dow component announcing a $12 million stock buyback, boosting the quarterly dividend by 14% now with a need of 1%. it's been one of the best dow stocks of the year. >> by the way, that dow component right now, as you can see, the gains there at this point, up .25%. the gains by themselves are good for 35 points in the dow futures this morning. >> once it splits, that won't be good for as many, and we noted consumer part of the dow will be less important. security forces around the world on high alert after the terrorist attacks in paris last week. gop presidential candidate jeb bush joined us on set minutes ago. this is what he said about the
7:03 am
fight against isis. >> the first thing i would do, if i was commander in chief, would be go to the military, give me options. give me options to destroy isis, and not say, give me options, but no civilian casuals, options, but we have to have lawyers verifying options. give me boots on the ground. the problem is now there's conditions placed it's a pathetic effort. >> we will talk about the cyber war against isis at 7:30 with the former chief information security officer for the u.s. secret service. turning to the markets, stocks holding on to solid gains for the week as the fed minutes provided confidence of a rate hike in december, and the markets cheered that. u.s. equity futures at this hour look like they are indicated, oh, up by just about 73 points, but, again, half of that is from nike alone. joining us now to talk about the markets is chris, oppenheimer's
7:04 am
operate e and the chief investment strategist and managing partner. chris, starting with you, you are cautious about the markets rites now. why is that? >> the fed is tightening. they have not done this in a long time. why? the economy's doing okay. plenty of head winds facing us. things are slow in emerging markets. things are falling apart in oil. the energy sector and there's a redeemed change going on at the fed. i think it makes a lot of sense to be cautious. we have not experienced this in a long time and how people react remains to be seen. >> usually, though, it's not the official hikes that create problems for the markets. >> sure. >> i think initial hikes in and of itself may not create problems, but it's 25 basis points, we'll live through it. it's really more about how the markets and investors and more importantly, companies perceive it to be. if they believe that as a result of all of this, the economy
7:05 am
slows down, and u.s. is really the only source of growth in the world, then we'll have a problem on our hands. >> jason, what do you think about where the markets are priced at these levels, how do you feel about that? >> listen, the equity market, as long as priced in fed tightening, i think it would be good for the stock market to the extent to which the fed stops being the center of attention. there might be other options, other policy lovers that might be able to be pulled, which i think people would welcome. the market is not particularly expensive. if we do simple models that put in interest rates and inflation, you can justify multiples that are much higher than they are today. as we've discussed before, i think there's much more valuation problem in the private markets than the public markets. >> as seen with the ipos that recently happened. >> and the growth of private equity industry has been unlike few things i've seen, you know, in my career, so i don't think the market itself was that much as risk. by the same token, though, i
7:06 am
argue it's hard to get big market gains without multiple expansion from here. it's lower returns over the next several years. it's hard to make a case otherwise. >> lower returns than we've seen this year where we've gone nowhere in the case -- >> lower returns which is typical, you know, 7% is a typical price murn. i think that might be hard to achieve in the next year or two. >> i think the valuation catchup that we have after the crisis is over. it's more about what the nominal growth is and what multiples we get from that. you know, sing the digit returns over an extended period of time is what we should expect. the one point wanted to make is while the fed would, you know, fed tight ping takes the fed out of the picture for the time being, the fed is never going to be out of the picture for the fore seeshl future, and as long as that's the case, volatility in the market place is here to
7:07 am
stay. i think that's the biggest change from the last four or five years. the fed is in a different mode, and as a result, people will try to anticipate what the fed is going to do, and we kind of draw all sorts of conclusions. >> although, volatility is returning to a normal. i mean, we've looked at incredibly compressed volatility as the fed is the main player. >> oh, absolutely. the volatility may normalize, but volatility normalizes in an environment where growth is low. it's not a hot combination. >> that's the big question. where do we see earnings grow? will we see it? jason, are you pinning hopes on that for next year? >> i think the good news is that the energy sector at least stops subtracting from earnings growth. >> because we've seen it annualize? >> you've already taken a hit for the most part, so at the margin, that should do better. government spending should add to gdp next year, so i have a feeling that maybe the industrial part of the economy would be better, defense stocks, thing along those lines, and the
7:08 am
consumer -- the hard part about the consumer is that there's been such a paradigm shift in terms of the way people are spending that it's hard to look at let's say macy's earnings and draw big conclusions about how consumers are spending. they are spending in very different ways. they are spending in different places. i, my own opinion, is the consumer's doing a lot better as we go into 2016. it may not be infra decisi trad places. >> electronics, cars? >> amazon has a higher market cap than walmart. amazon has 150,000 employees. walmart has 1.4 million employees in the united states. >> does it deserve a higher market cap? >> i think it may. i mean, the valuations are pretty whacky for amazon, one would say, but by the same to n token, walmart's were whacky part of the nifty '50s. the hunter became the hunted in a way.
7:09 am
the technology from 40 years ago disrupted business model of wall mat is now disrupted by another new dbusiness model. >> what's important is consumption and income growth is the biggest positive going on, if it was not for that, we would have even bigger trouble. consumption is good, but it's not ending up in retail sales by itself. 60% of consumption is services. that part of the economy continues to grow. employment is okay. it's the industrial sector. it's the energy sector that has head winds from what's going on in the u.s. and the sectors or on a global basis that kind of gives reason for concern. >> you don't worry about a slow down in europe that could be exacerbated by the events of the last week and that could eventually catch up here? >> absolutely. i think the slowing of -- potential slowing of european economy is that it is going to be a bigger problem. i think the ecb recognizes that,
7:10 am
and that is one of the reasons why draghi talks actively as he is ahead of time, ahead of meetings and things like that to support the economy. >> all right, thank you for coming in this morning. been a pleasure having you here, and, of course, jason will be with us for the rest of the show. >> very good. new data on mobile phone use around the world and how soon we see 5g mobile networks. i don't understand. slower, but uses less power? i don't know. then, hacker group anonymous rages online war on isis. we'll have the former head of information security for the secret service why hackers are going and our government is not. the ceo sounds off on president obama's trade deal. his warning still to come. "squawk box" will be right back.
7:11 am
opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.
7:12 am
7:13 am
welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. futures indicated higher, and dow is up by 75 points, and s&p futures up by just over six points, nasdaq up by 16.5. this comes after the market ended relatively flat yesterday. shares of foot locker on the rise, it was five cents better than the street expected. they also saw same store sales
7:14 am
jump by 8%. that was above the street's estimates of about 6%. >> say a final good-bye, a sad one, to your flip phone. really? does anyone have those? the smart phone will force the end dangered group of traditional key pad phones into true extinction in five years, according to the newest data on mobile trends. the telecom networking giant upped the forecast for data traffic. this is what got me, projecting a ten-fold surge over the next few years, driven by video. video consumption. here to break down the report, the president and ceo of ericson. do you sit down? this industry is moving so quickly. you can't take a breath, can you? >> no, it's moving extremely fast, and if you technology revolution is fast so far, it's slow. the next five years, we're going to get so many people on this
7:15 am
earth with the mobility and broadband, doubling the amount of people who have access to the internet in five years. we go to 7.7 million subscriptions by 202 is. it's going to go fast compared to the 25 years. >> it's going to happen in parts of the world where we think of as frontier markets where we're not even sure about the most normal types of plumbing and hygiene and things that infrastructure is not done, but there's mobile phones and europe. >> absolutely. i think that what you were into earlier as well, we see disruption because there's more than 90% of the population having coverage, meaning there's access to internet. the boundaries between countries, industries start using it and transforming it by
7:16 am
using it, new ways to accessing their customers, so, of course, this is a huge thing the next five years, how we going to see it pan out. even in the five year peer, there's five year subscriptions, expect 150 million five year sub situations by 2021 as well. >> can you give a run down? what are the advantages? there are disadvantages, but we're headed there either way. >> i think that it was designed for consumers, higher speed, but et true put. 5g is the industrial internet where certains need low, others need throughput, others might not be inside the power grid so you need capability of keeping battery alive ten years. it's definitely using much more used cases. the speed is more.
7:17 am
rounding 10 bgig bits now. it's speed for consumers, but industrial like the transport industry, process industry, the agriculture industry, financial industry using 5g more than done in previous technologies. >> going to be room for a lot of people, obviously, in this. where do you want to play? where will you be best suited to do infrastructure? where's the sweet spot in light of this, you know, the cisco alliance that you made recently? what kind of company will ericson be? we expect that more than 75% of the revenue in 2020 is software and services, very much to tie the technology networks together, but also applications like building systems, tv, and video content, handling all of that, and then, of course, we have a huge service arm already today, 65,000, using with
7:18 am
installations, system integration, outsourcing. we will be needing more numbers to ensure everything comes together with high-tech in the bottom where we are number and planning to be on number one on 5g as well. >> i don't want to sound stew pitt, but it's never stopped me in the past. is there any limit to the bandwidth if all data and everybody's going to be watching really detailed video, is there any physical limit to the amount of spectrum that's out there? is it just a matter of building out infrastructure? >> you said it. it's ten times more data in five years. we see that's solved by new technologies, new features in the technology by aggregating frequency, and then there are new frequencies coming out as well. we are working with license the
7:19 am
spectrum and unlicensed. yes, we can handle demand, doubling the amount of small technology in the world in five years, managing that with our technology and software that is is enabling all of that. >> okay. nothing like a moore's law we have for integrated circuits, hitting the high end where the system can't take more data? that will never happen? >> it might happen, but right now, for example, the average user in north america by 2021 uses 22 gigbite per month, on average, enormous, a lot of streaming. we still believe that's possible to handle with existing frequencies, but you need new technologies and softwares that handle these frequencies and data bits better. we think we are the solution to it. >> i don't think i can get by on 23. maybe 25. don't you think, jason?
7:20 am
can you get by on 23 gig? >> not a chance, no, no, too much streaming. >> it's not good enough for me, but i'll pay. anyway, thank you. we appreciate it. we'll be watching closely. it's exciting, but kind of daunting for a layman to understand, but thanks. >> thank you very much. >> okay. when we come back, details coming in from the hostage situation in mali including the response by special forces on the sacene. we'll get you up to date after this. time now for today's aflac trivia question. what legendary rock musician has an international airport that bears his name? the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues. aa-flac! aflaaac. aaaa-flaaaac. someone's sandbagging. i'd be tired too.
7:21 am
he paid my claim in one day when i got hurt. one day? serious hustle. serious duck. in just one day, we process, approve and pay. one day pay, only from aflac. ah! we heard you got a job as a developer!!!!! its official, i work for ge!! what? wow... yeah! okay... guys, i'll be writing a new language for machines so planes, trains, even hospitals can work better.
7:22 am
oh! sorry, i was trying to put it away... got it on the cake. so you're going to work on a train? not on a train...on "trains"! you're not gonna develop stuff anymore? no i am... do you know what ge is? theand to help you accelerate,. we've created a new company... one totally focused on what's next for your business. the true partnership where people,technology and ideas
7:23 am
push everyone forward. accelerating innovation. accelerating transformation. accelerating next. hewlett packard enterprise. the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what legendary rock musician has an international airport that bears his name? the answer, john lennon. gunmen in north africa take hostages in a luxury hotel. that attack happened at the raddison blu at mali's capital. this video came into the news room. we are join now from london.
7:24 am
ron? >> reporter: hey, becky. it's a developing situation. here's the latest in what we know. we just heard, got word france is sending in military police, and mali military is on scene, and there's a perimeter and inside the hotel, no word on whether they made any contact with the people who are holding these some 150 or so hostage. we believe that might be taking place up on the seventh floor of the hotel. this all started at 1:00 in the morning eastern time this morning when the hotel said a gunman stormed the property of the we've heard conflicting roberts about the number of gunmen, at least ten apparently, taking 170 hostage, 140 guests, and about 30 employees. there are reports in the "new york times" and others where the gunmen asked hostages to recite a muslim declaration, and those who could could leave.
7:25 am
that number was 15-20 people who left. we heard there's a number of airline crews there from two airlines including air france. we believe the turkish airline staff, most were able to escape. we have not heard word on the fate of the folks who are employed by air france. president obama was updated on this situation by national security adviser susan rice this morning, asking his team to keep him apprised of the developing situations. the president mali was in a conference in chad apparently headed back to the situation as well. we can tell you that this is an area of africa that has become increasingly volatile in recent years in mali, especially the central and northern part of the country where islamic extremists fought for control as this country's been in the civil war, if you will, in the northern part of the country. there was an attack on a hotel about 400 miles from this hotel, a few months ago in august that left about 12, 13 people dead in the attack. today, we heard confirmed three people killed. this is a developing situation
7:26 am
that figure could go higher as we learn more. back to you. >> ron, this is developing quickly. air france stated now that the 12 air france crew members staying at that hotel are now safe. they are cancelling all flights to the capital coming in and out of the capital. ron, thank you very much, obviously, a developing story, and ron will be continuing to follow that. >> you bet. when we come back this morning, security levels around the globe elevated after last week's paris attacks. police tell us if you see something, say something. do you know what to look for? we have eight warning signs of a terrorist attacks in the works. he'll join us with that next.
7:27 am
7:28 am
7:29 am
7:30 am
welcome back to "squawk box," everyone, cnbc, first in business worldwide. among the stories today, big data software company posted better than expected results, raising the revenue guidance naming a new ceo, you see the stock is up 1.5%. gab cut full year earnings forecast retailer blaming strong dollar and weak sales at banana republic and gap brands. the ceo is looking for material improvement in the stores in the spring. that stock's down by 1%. quarterly results beat on top and bottom line, but the retailer cautions the fourth quarter could be challenging saying a highly promotional holiday season is expected, and the street is shrugging off concerns. the stock up 8%. >> adele's new album is out today, but not on spotify or apple music. the album is only available for purchase on cd or download.
7:31 am
new york times reports adele was involved in meetings to keep it off streaming services. the sales are expected to total around 2.5 million in the first week alone. . we have the warnings and preventive steps to take to be prepared for a terrorist attack. >> reporter: good morning, becky. talking to security experts all week in the wake of the paris attacks saying the grim reality of this terrorist attack is that the moment a terrorist shows up at your venue's front doorstep with an ak-47 and suicide belt, there's not much you can do to prevent that person from killing a number of people at that venue. the security guards, the security cameras, simply they are not effective. they say if you rewind the tape, think about the moment, and think back in time from the moment, there are times in which you can stop or interrupt a terrorist attack in the planning or preparation stations. they say there are about eight
7:32 am
different preparation stages from al qaeda and isis attacks you can observe while they are happening and intervene with laumplaw enforcement and get a message something's in the work. starting with surveillance. they are prepared, visiting the venue beforehand. they take pictures. if you see anyone taking pictures, not of the view, but the security cameras, the doors, that's something to watch for and possibly contact law enforcement. also, information gathering, asking questions about shift changes, when people arrive on site, that sort of thing, testing security, often, they ring a false alarm to see how fast security responds to it in given situations. they say, funding, you can watch for large cash purchases, prepaid cash card purchases, that sort of thing is an indicator that money launlderring is taking place in advance of an attack. also, acquiring supplies, impersonation is important. they say watch for an incident in which somebody's impersona
7:33 am
impersonating medical personnel. that's not a one-off incident, but preparation for attacks. rehearsal. you see the entire team arrive on site at the venue and case the joint, so to speak. finally, deployment, the moment in which terrorists arrive at the site, getting out of the vehicle, bringing out their weapons, a few steps away, what security experts tell me is that ultimately the speed to response is what determines how many people are killed in an attack like this. if someone calls 911, alert law enforcement before the shootings start, the moment they see somebody with a gun in a place where they shouldn't have a gun, that can do a lot to help as well, minimizing the damage. also, resources here for businesses who might want to reach out to federal law enforcement agencies and get some information. there's the fbi's infraguard partnership, a system where you get information on terrorists or a venue you on or like the ones
7:34 am
you own of the there's the nationwide suspicious activity reporting initiative, exactly what it sounds like, and dhs centers of excellence programs at the department of homeland security with experts in all sorts of particular fields. they have maritime experts. they have experts on the alaska wilderness, all areas of the country where terrorists might strike, guys. >> all right, thank you. turning from soft targets to cyber targets, hacker groups are taking the fight against isis online. the most well known of the groups is anonymous, tweeting more than 6,000 state twitter accounts disabled due to its efforts. joining us now is the former chief intelligence security officer for the secret service, now the vp at trend micro, and start with what social media, what social media means to isis. how important is it for recruiting tactics and fund raising strategies. >> yeah. absolutely. thank you for having me.
7:35 am
base clically what you have is area of opportunity where these groups, cyber criminal groups, the like, and even these terrorist groups, really, they seek the ability to communicate and collaborate and do it securely, right? what we have seen in the last few years, there's a lot of research here on the deep web, in the dark web, a lot of groups and organizations are migrating to the deep web and dark web. what that means is that the internet for you and i, essentially, is that surface web. the deep web is the weapon that you and i cannot get to. >> what is it? i don't understand that. >> so what i'm saying there is there is search engines, if you go in and do a certain search for a particular website, and you wanted to find something, this type of search would not result in you getting to the deep web. you have a lot of criminal websites here doing it for quite some time hosting illicit services. cyber criminal groups and
7:36 am
terrorist organizations are lev ra leveraging this capability. this leverages encryption and secure communication. they are really there working on the ability to recruit, like you mentioned, finance and plan these attacks. that, you know, not only from a physical side, but also on the cyber side. >> we've always thought of anonymous as being a scarry organization that's going to put our own safety at risk, but i was cheering them on when i saw the tweets saying they were going to go after isis, and that, by the way, they are better hackers. is that the case? they are better hackers, and other people cannot penetrate those areas in the deep web? >> well, they have the capability. they have shown they have been able to do these types of attacks. i can't speak to what impact, what the end result would be for them conducting these types of attacks, but, you know, it's an interesting proposition. i think this whole problem goes beyond, obviously, anonymous. it goes beyond a unity of
7:37 am
effort. it's a shared responsibility that we have, private industry, law enforcement, policymakers need to come together and find solutions forward. >> ed, how effective are our hackers, if you will, our official hag ckers, working for the government, do we have to rely on anonymous to help us disrupt activities or by the same token, can we -- are they just better at it than we are? >> no, absolutely not. i think we have incredible capability within the u.s. government as well as our allies. however, i will say this, 80% of the data that is really out there is held by private industry. to be honest, also skill sets. partnership is key here. i wouldn't say necessary anonymous is a partnership here, but i would say partnership in general across the board is needed. >> you know, the director made a point of saying we should be
7:38 am
safe in america. they know of no specific attacks, even though we've seen these isis videos that are out. when you lay it out that way and point out there's so much information we don't have access to, how secure should we feel in those proclamations? >> well, arguably, you know, the biggest priority for law enforcement here is prevention. to be perfectly honest, that's a bold and hard challenge for them to do, and it's something that they always try to do. i think, like you mentioned in the earlier piece, you know, the steps to be more resilient against terrorist attacks really hold true on the cyber side as well. >> in terms of industry, what would you be pushing people to do? there's been a huge pushback from the technology industry saying, wait a second, we can't open our books to american authorities. we can't create keys only the good guys can use. by doing that, you create keys bad guys get too and use in their encryption efforts.
7:39 am
what's the answer? >> there is no silver bullet. i mean, arguably this is a tough challenge. again, i'll reiterate, it's a unity of effort. sitting -- i would say instead of picking sides, we should be picking chairs at the table. really coming together and trying to find solutions. i really don't they this we have to sacrifice one for the other, privacy for security. i think it's just a long process, and everybody needs to be able to help and support it. >> what's your biggest concern about what corporations will allow people to do to this point in terms of what we should be, and if that makes us less safe, or if it creates safe havens for terrorists. >> our responsibility is protect your own. the unity of effort really applies internally starting with the strategy. cyber security strategy for your company and how that expands and connects with the broader sectors and nationally and
7:40 am
internationally. a good example of that is cooperation and seen recently, the u.k. and u.s. cooperated on operation resilient shield where the financial sector came together with law enforcement and other government firms to really do the cyber security table top exercises. i think that type of activity, not only internally within the organization, but also at the national, international level are key. >> ed, thank you for joining us today. >> thank you. coming up, our next guest sounding alarm on president obama's trade agreement, why former new court ceo dan dimicco thinks it's a bad deal for american workers. as we break, take a look at u.s. equity futures. (vo) what does the world run on? it runs on optimism. it's what sparks ideas. moves the world forward. invest with those who see the world as unstoppable.
7:41 am
who have the curiosity to look beyond the expected and the conviction to be in it for the long term. oppenheimerfunds believes that's the right way to invest... ...in this big, bold, beautiful world.
7:42 am
7:43 am
trade talk among the many hot button issues facing washington right now. our next guest calls himself a free trade realist sounding the alarm on president obama's transpacific partnership deal, and dan dimicco joins us, former ceo and chairman of new corps,
7:44 am
author of "american made, why making things will return us to greatness," dan, it's always great to see you. >> morning, joe. >> now that we know, we have a better idea what's in this, i think, but you -- i remember when hillary clinton said, yeah, i'm against this because i saw what's in it. no one had seen what's in it. i think back then, you were kind of against it back then, too, weren't you? that's why, should i take you at face value that, deep down, you are a free trade realist? >> absolutely. the reason i talked about this before on the show, joe, good morning becky and jason. >> good nornmorning. >> there's a history herement the mystery goes back to the early '90s, i define as the beginning of the free trade era, and over that period of time, every trade agreement we enter into or favor trading agreements, what it's done is give us a $12 trillion accumulated trade deficit in
7:45 am
manufactured goods. i've been against tpp because it's based upon all the previous free trade agreements including the road map of the korean free trade agreement. the korean free trade agreement, what happened since 20 is 1? exports have been flat. imports have gone through the roof. our trade deficit has doubled. my issue is not with the president, but the free trade agreements going from republican, democratic, republican, democratic administration for -- since 1990. while i have not seen the tpp, i know it when i see it. it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, walks like a duck, joe, it's a duck. >> dan, people probably say it's harder to, you know, to get a cause and effect whenever anything happens, when it happens, you never know, you
7:46 am
know, what was to blame. you know, we are still either the richest or one of the richest countries on earth. we're going to import things. >> absolutely. >> we consume more than anyone else. when labor is cheap echeaper, differential is cheaper, and tariffs and things we try to mitigate using these things, but there's a lot of factors that are responsible for what's happened, and i guess that just by definition you'd think that selling into these global markets where there's, you know, over a billion chinese, that it just seems like common sense that sooner or later it's a net positive when exporting to the world and not putting up barriers to that. >> well, hooeere's the deal. we are not the ones who put up the barriers. even after we negotiate, and this is the problem with the free trade agreements, joe. your logic is not unsound at all, okay? i'm a strong believer in
7:47 am
exporting. exporting as much as we can. i know there's two sides to the equation. the import side on trade cheating that goes on to gain access to our market has nothing to do with labor costs. if you look at the steel industry as the canary in the coal mine, it's $10 a ton, yet 30 million tons of steel coming into the country. it's got nothing to do with labor, freight costs are three to four times that. the issue in front of us, negotiating free trade agreements, we are lousy at it, dominated by folks who have a predominant ben frit frefit frog more exports out in the world opposed to having balanced trade, which is good for all americans, and so what happens is knnew trade barriers come up. we knock out the tariffs, and you know as well as i do, if you read the free trade agreement, the tpp, it talks about things being removed over the next 10-20 years. our barriers, whatever we have, which are virtually zero,
7:48 am
disappear overnight. what they do, what happened with nafta, they put things in place that are called non-tariff trade barriers. get rid of 12% tariffs, but in return, you get 18% value added tax into all imported goods in the country. it gets worse. that's why the trade deficit keeping growing is because the deck is stacked against our exporters and we totally ignore the fact we have the largest market in the world, and we should be able to be focusing on producing things here for that market, not allowing trade cheaters who ma nnipulate the system to dominate and destroy our middle class and manufacturing sector. >> for those of us that try to figure out, you know, where, you know, politically this kind of stuff is, it's very hard to figure because i'm going to read to you from this extreme right wing organization called the progressive policy institute. you've heard of those guys? they are far left, and they -- so i don't know which side
7:49 am
people are on. it's the only bipartisan thing. there's the far right and far left on the same side. it's nice they are coming together, but they are talking about small business released today. they have a report out, progressive policy institute that details many of the practical ways in which the tpp would help america's smaller exporters prosper by connecting with, competing in, and selling to growing tpp markets. they got this, you know, it's like an audiovisual dream, all the positive things that happen to small business, which is 98% of american businesses that are small and medium sized. i mean, how do they come to that conclusion on the far left? >> listen. there's nothing wrong with the arguments that talk about the benefits of exporting that would come to the narrative -- >> this won't help? this de facto does not help? makes it worse? >> it won't. it's the same old sad trade
7:50 am
agreement issue that we have. we never enforce, even though we say we got stronger enforcements, which is all bologna, we don't. we allow trading partners to set up alternative barriers, and that's why the trading deficit is as huge as it is. the number one issue to that is not the other issues you alluded to, but has to do with the fact that people continue to game the system against us, and our multinational companies benefit from it, and god bless them for doing it, export the hel out of stuff, but don't ignore the fact of what happened to the american middle class and american worker. >> sounds like you back someone like donald trump saying the government is run by idiots, we are taking advantage of in every single trade deal we do, we say this, but we don't. we're feckless, we have no idea how to negotiate. >> i love you, joe. i love ya. i love you for bringing the trump issue in. i would be disappointed if you
7:51 am
didn't. listen, we're not getting into presidential politics because i'm as lost as everybody else. >> come on. >> i'm as lost as everybody else is in this, but the point to you here is that there's a reason why these things are done. if you want to understand them, all you got to do is follow the age old adage of follow the money. people benefit from the status q quo, people lose, and the american people are losing. >> dan, this is jason, quick question, can you have a vibrant u.s. economy without a vibrant middle class? >> no. >> is there -- i guess is there a sense in which some of the trade agreements are contributed to a lot of the income inequality that a lot of people on both the left and right are worried about? >> i completely agree with you. that's exactly what's happening. proof is in the data, not in the conjecture or halls rhetoric of free trade. >> dan, good to see you.
7:52 am
come to the studio next time. >> happy -- >> appreciate it. >> happy thanksgiving. >> thank you, you too. >> you too. when we come back, streaming war's in focus, big original shows launching on amazon and netflix today. we have the details after this.
7:53 am
7:54 am
welcome back, everybody. amazon is moving to take on netflix. both companies launching big original series today. we are joined right now by julia
7:55 am
with a look the both of them, julia? >> reporter: well, becky, the battle between amazon prime streams and netflix heating up this weekend dropping new originals aiming to draw subscribers and hold on to old ones. man in the castle draws reviews on which the nazis wins world war ii. the company does not come in on budget, temperature episodes series is amazon's biggest investment in a single show yet. likely to draw awards attention as amazon's transparent did winning two golden globes last year, and elevating the retail giant's push to compete with netflix. meanwhile, today, netflix launched a another marvel series, jessica jones, drawing reviews for rare female superhero with media giants looking to hold on to the shows longer and potentially charge more for them, these originals are key to amazon and netflix becoming less reliant on studios, and with so many video options including hulu's new add
7:56 am
free service they are key to ensuring a subscription is a must have. becky, interesting to watch all the buzz about these shows after the weekend. >> okay. julia, thank you. >> what about super girl? >> she's on. >> what about super girl? elastagirl? the mr. incredible's wife. are they rare? >> relatively -- >> compared to the number of male superheros, females are rare. >> one or two tokens you threw in. >> oh, boy. this is part of the -- yeah, part -- oh, boy, okay. sorry to go there. i didn't know. you got to do something about this. yeah. okay. okay. coming up, united health care expects losses, and could leave obama care in the next few years, following that announcement, health care stocks had their worst day in four years. obamacare architect joining us, and dr. scott gottlieb is next.
7:57 am
so what's your news? i got a job! i'll be programming at ge. oh i got a job too, at zazzies. (friends gasp) the app where you put fruit hats on animals? i love that! guys, i'll be writing code that helps machines communicate. (interrupting) i just zazzied you. (phone vibrates) look at it! (friends giggle) i can do dogs, hamsters, guinea pigs... you name it. i'm going to transform the way the world works. (proudly) i programmed that hat. and i can do casaba melons. i'll be helping turbines power cities. i put a turbine on a cat. (friends ooh and ahh) i can make hospitals run more efficiently... this isn't a competition! theand to help you accelerate,. we've created a new company... one totally focused on what's next for your business. the true partnership where people,technology and ideas
7:58 am
push everyone forward. accelerating innovation. accelerating transformation. accelerating next. hewlett packard enterprise.
7:59 am
gunmen in mali attacking a luxury hotel in the capital. at least three dead, many still trapped by the extremistextremi. the details in the potential
8:00 am
paris connection straight ahead. casting doubts about obamacare. the nation's largest health care provider considering withdrawing from affordable care act exchanges. could others follow suit? is the marketplace in debate? debate strait ahead. fishing for a deal. bass proshops make a host of acquisitions in expanding its outdoor recreation stores. we'll talk hunting, fishing, and the health of the consumer ahead of black friday with the founder. it's time to fish or cut bait as the final hour of the "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box." welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm becky quick along with joe, and we are less than 90 minutes
8:01 am
from the opening bell on wall street. futures this morning have been positive all morning long, dow futures up 84 points, dow up 7, and nasdaq up by 18. if you look at the markets in europe at this hour, you see gains in some of the markets there. looks like the dax and germany is up by .40. the ftse in london up .20, and cac in france is flat. the stories investors are talking about today. some new numbers from lippor show they pulled u.s. stock funds in the last week, the second straight week of outflows. ecb president draghi gave a hint that the central bank is unveiling more stimulus next month. frankfurt, earlier this morning, drag hi argued the ecb is ready to boost inflation in the eurozone meaning more stimulus that could be coming. oil prices dropping to three
8:02 am
month lows, pointing to fears of over supply. >> a few stocks that are on the move this morning. we'll start with nike announcing a big buy back, $12 billion, a two for one stock split in the dow component. you remember nike u, but not united health care? >> yes. you reminded me. nike sticks in the head. >> a dow component. >> changing too frequently p this is what i talked about. we're holder, not that they change frequently. >> speak for yourself. >> no, no. >> raising the quarterly dividend by 14%, giving it a yield of about 1% now. in the same area, sort of, all though this company got left in the dust a little bit, but in terps nerms of nike, but it's okay, earnings, revenues, same store sales topping estimate, and abercrombie was 15 cents above revenue. >> oh, my gosh. >> same store sales did fall, but less than analysts anticipated. is this the beginning of
8:03 am
something there as far as the turn around? able to cut down on promotions. >> stock up 20%. volatile retail stocks as people disappoint or beat expectations. people are watching the area so closely right now. >> we have breaking news out of north africa this morning. we are following reports that ten attackers took 170 people hostage in a luxury hotel in mali. 80 of the hos tamtages freed so. three people were killed in the attack beginning early this morning at the raddison blu hotel in the country's capital. we'll following developing story. earlier in the program, we heard from jeb bush on his plan to take on isis if he won the white house. >> first thing i do if i was commander in chief would be go to the military, give me options, give me options to destroy isis. my guess is talking to military advisers as i have, you could do it with a relatively small american foot print, emphasis on special operators, and you would
8:04 am
have to build up a robust local force that would be supported in a unified way by the persian gulf states, by egypt, jordan, and requires american leadership. no one trusts us, no one follows suit. >> michelle caruso-cabrera is in paris with more on the situation in mali and new developments on paris attacks as well. michelle? >> reporter: and there's a big connection between mali and france. remember, becky, the news coming from mali is huge news in france. mali was once a french colony. two years ago, french went into mali to take over the northern part of the country from jihad. this is still ongoing right now. the mali military moved in. they are on the scene. they have set up a perimeter. they reportedly have gone inside the hotel, but there's no word yet on whether or not they made contact. france is also sending in its military police. this all started at 1:00 a.m. eastern time at the raddison blu
8:05 am
hotel. it's unclear how many gunmen. it seems to get larger and larger, taking 170 hostages, 140 hotel guests, 30 employees. since then, approximately 80 hostages have been released, ap now reporting that at least three are dead. there were two airline crews in the hotel. turkish air and air france. we got word from both companies their employees are safe. air france is suspending service to the capital city there. back here in france, the french parliament is expected to vote by a wide margin of three month extensions of the state of emergency, plus increased power of the police here in the state of emergency. we spoke with a member of parliament who says this move is long overdue. >> when we were first attacked in january, none of this stuff that is now conducted was decided. the president decided to go out
8:06 am
on a nice demonstration of, you know, the nice sentiment about freedom of the press, and as long as it was blasphemy by journalists or jews attacked, the country did not understand this was war. >> reporter: blasphemy by journalists, referring to the "charlie hebdo," and then the kosher supermarket was attacked. the point is now many more other types of french people have been attacked, waking up the prenfre population to believe it's a much bigger issue. a member of the opposition, he was critical of the president. he did not have nice things to say about george w. bush or president obama either, guys, thinking u.s. foreign policy is the problem for the last 15 years. >> all right, michelle, thank you. again, michelle caruso-cabrera has been in paris all week updating us on everything
8:07 am
happening there, continuing to monitor the situation, and we'll check in with her as other developments occur. in the meantime, bag here in the united states, we've been talking about a lot of issues, including the insurance giant, united health, and plans to consider an exit from the exchanges from obama care after reports of major losses for the company. former aetna chief, ron williams, commented on the message this is sending to washington last night on "closing bell." >> i view it as a reflection of the underlying cost that the health plan is actually experiencing. i think what we're seeing is the maturing of the exchange model and a dawning awareness of how complicated it is to run an insurance business. >> joining us this morning to talk about the affordable care act is dr. emmanuel, from the university of pennsylvania, and dr. scott gottlieb, and,
8:08 am
gentlemen, welcome to both of you. >> thank you. >> talk about what we heard from united health, getting the news as we sat down to start the show yesterday, and it was stunning saying in recent weeks they are looking at deterioration in the policies. we know there's been more people who have. signing up who have been sick, fewer healthy people coming inning and as a result, premiums are up. that's a double whammy to see premiums up and companies saying they can't make money on this. >> well, first of all, united was late in getting in the insurance exchange business, setting out the first year, came in in the second year, and might have gotten an adverse poll. aetna and anthem are more aggressive in this area. i note that a lot of people like to blame obama kay for the ills of everything, losing $5 million, blaming obama kacare. we have to pay attention to who is coming in, ensuring everyone has to get insurance. there is a penalty for getting experien insurance, and that is an issue,
8:09 am
and i think as rom williams said, running an insurance exchange and company is harder than it looks. it's not just passing money from here to there. getting the risk pool is very important. i know that the administration is working on this. everyone in healthcare is working on this. one last thing. there's been a lot of churn with the health insurance exchanges, 30% of people going in and out. that does make it hard for people -- for insurance companies to know who's cominin in. >> what's the rates? exactly. who is coming? who sets rates? the reason people leave get jobs with health insurance. the last thing i say is the drug -- i caught this from united, i talk to a lot of ensure insurers. this drug cost issue and new people coming in require expensive drugs is, again, having a big impact on the bottom line. >> anything specific -- ordering of valeant? >> no, it's the specialty drugs,
8:10 am
hep c drugs, cancer drugs are expensi expensive, affecting everyone, 1-2% of the drug sales, but accounts for 30% of the drug costs. getting those costs under control is one component. >> any truth the penalties, like people can get care, get out, and it's not enforced or provisions -- >> enforcing the penalty, making people aware of the penalty is important. it's not being done. >> talking about a thousand -- >> i don't know that it's the level of penalty. i think it's the assuredty of enforcement that's important. people knowing that if they do not have coverage, they are doing to be peej inalized. if it's a voluntary exchange, it collapses. >> yeah. >> it has to be mandatory, and we need everyone in. it's done a great job, 18% uninsured down to 11% uninsured. that's good. it has to go down to 94%.
8:11 am
>> really slowed down, a lot is medicaid too. >> well, a lot is people who have insurance coming in rather than -- >> you have to come in studio, scott. i didn't mean to take all your air time. >> that's okay. most of the insured are medicaid. wla what's happening is a lot of coverages transitioning to the medicaid, we thought medicaid-like benefit, but did not predict how quickly coverage transsitions to the hmos. look at anthem, aetna, they slunk the foot print. the only who grew was united, and now they are going to get out. meanwhile, the medicaid all grew their foot print. also, best pricing is with the medicaid hmos, increasing average prices of premiums like 20% this year. i think cig that was 20%, and
8:12 am
they cut their rates about 5% across the board, across all exchanges. what happens is all action transitions to the medicaid hmos and medication on short order getting a medicaid-like benefit. one last thing, losing half a million, but 275 million was on exchanges, and as for the drug costs, premiums going up on obamacare from the government's numbers, 7%, more than the plan. look at commercial segment, employer segment, they went up 4% and there's much generous drug coverage. if it was just drugs, they would be going up in all segments, but they are only going up in obamacare. >> just one second as -- i'm not in the league or part of the health care. >> you're an employer. >> not part of the debate, but what's happened with me, this is a chief political technique to talk about myself personally, but the first thing that happened was my doctor in new
8:13 am
york city switched to a concierge service. the doctor i had for five years said, i couldn't keep my doctor. the second thing that happened is the last three years, i come into my cfo's office saying premiums are up 18% every year. we search around. candidly, we're at the point now we are giving out toothbrush rs and having guys run up and down the stairs. the level of the care that we're providing is not as good as it was. we're pushing people, like most employers are, unfortunately, into very high deductible plans. now, it's good if you have young employees. they don't really mind so much. for people that have families, they don't feel that there is a real savings to this new health care plan. >> well -- >> i guess my question is, what do you say to those? what do you say to me? what do you say to those people? elite level, cost curve is down,
8:14 am
but people do not feel better about the map in place now. >> no, i totally agree with you, and one of the reasons -- even though i am a liberal, i think we have to focus on cost control because of what exactly what you said, affordability is absolutely critical across the board because if we don't have affordable plans, we are not going to get universal coverage. they are linked. we have to make some real choices about this. i think one of the things -- i think everyone agreed we overplayed the high deductible plans and people feel this is less and less insurance and more paying out the pocket. >> catastrophic. >> catastrophic, and that is not a good strategy for people. so one of the -- combining this access thing that you're wired about, we have to really focus on cost control and making sure that the system's much more efficient, that we are getting a lot of the waste of the unnecessary care and, frankly, getting prices down. the drug prices are a big
8:15 am
component. one of the things that -- scott says it's 4% in the commercial market, but the fact is they played around with their drug benefit to reduce exposure on the drugs. there are lots of components that need to be addressed. we can't fit -- only focus in on the issue of access. it's tied to cost. >> when you look -- >> get the costs under control we will have an access problem. it's that simple. >> the data on where the premium increasing were driven this year is hospital charges. the component -- >> sorry, what charges? >> hospital charges. the component of the increase in the premiums this year are attributable to drug cost was consistent with the amount of drugs spent within the benefits. spending 10% on drugs in a benefit package, 10% of the premium increase driven by drugs. that's the actual data. >> scott, we are looking at different numbers. >> i'm looking from numbers coming out this week. >> 14% is not in line with their
8:16 am
proportion. i agree. hospitals are another area. we can't let my area be ignored. >> in large measure because of the consolidation underway. one of the things to keep in mind there's a historic political realignment here in washington where politicians invest in the underwriting cycle, and the restrictive insurance practices that years ago they deprived, things like patients' bill of rights, and now the political class is invested in things like closed formulairs and documents because they know where the insurers need to put in place to stay in the affordable care act. >> one other thing, i just hop in here. i apologize to pry along. >> no, no. >> it seem we have a government imposed solution, then it doesn't work out as well as we thought it would, and the solution is more government
8:17 am
intrui intrusion, and you say, where does it stop? do you abandon any free market principles in health care? just have a completely top down -- >> to be clear, the insurance exchange is not a government imposed solution. it's a private marketplace where private companies are offering insurance and what the government is doing is creating a level playing field of competition and providing subsidies for people to buy. >> well -- >> it is not the government's. >> not that's entirely true. you are telling every person they have to participate in it, you tell insurance companies they have to take every person regardless. >> you are also -- >> we, first of all, agree that you should have to take everyone. you should not experience rates so that if you have cancer or a health problem, you can't get insurance. second of all -- >> reality is, that drives up rates. >> let's be clear. if you don't have a mandate, we will not have an insurance market. you cannot -- have both. we want an insurance market. we have no mandate.
8:18 am
if it's voluntary, people do what we object to, which is when you get sick, you get insurance. >> if you can't have everybody in it like you said yourself, if they are not -- if you don't have the healthiest people in this, it's going to be outrageous rates. >> exactly. you have to have everyone in it. the only way to get everyone in it is a mandate to enforce people know it's real. that's absolutely essential. >> i wish we had another half hour. >> we can't have a mandate or it's not real. the healthy will stay out. >> the problem with the plan is the government is setting what the maps have to be. it's not a competitive market for difference insurance structures. >> what they cover, scott? >> what they have to cover. it's basically one plan. >> we need a level playing field. >> it's one plan. all you vary is the copay structure between plans. look at the benefits, it's the same, gold, silver platinum, it's the same plan. all that varies is the cost sharing. >> scott, everyone has agreed we need more standardization to make shopping easier. >> well, you got
8:19 am
standardization, that's right. you standardized the benefit. that's right. >> gentlemen, come back, both of you, i want to continue the conversation now, but we are out of time. thank you, both, for being here. >> thank you very much for having us. >> thank you. >> you stayed at the raddison in mali? >> five times, done a lot of work here. i was there for before -- stable country, one of the poorest in the world, lovely people, and was a stable government. they had three peaceful transitions in government. the people there are very interested in democracy. you know, this was imposed because of the libyan crisis and the influx of weapons, not by mali themselves, who really want peace and are very accommodating people. >> all right. >> thank you. when we come back this morning, a change in the cloud at google, details after the break. later, extremists storming a luxury hotel in mali we just talked aboutment the latest on the situation on the ground.
8:20 am
that's just ahead. "squawk box" will be right back. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. the markets change, at t. rowe price, our disciplined investment approach remains. we ask questions here. look for risks there. and search for opportunity everywhere. global markets may be uncertain.
8:21 am
but you can feel confident in our investment experience... ... around the world. call a t. rowe price investment specialist, or your advisor... ...and see how we can help you find global opportunity. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.
8:22 am
s&p futures are up by over
8:23 am
7, and nasdaq up by 17. google has appointed vm ware cofounder an industry veteran, diane green, to run the cloud business, and google announced they would buy bbop, the team is joining google after the transaction closes this year. they have been on the board for three years, resigning as the ceo back in 2008. >> did you run a cloud company jason? >> no. not a chance. >> i'd have serious -- if there's anything that needs to be done at all, i couldn't. i don't think i could do it. >> no. >> unless i could sit there and say i run the company. anyway, coming up, could bass pro shops be on the hunt for acquisiti acquisition? the outdoor giant joins us to talk retail trends and rumors of a possible bid for cabella's. we'll be right back this is an opportunity to right that wrong.
8:24 am
the idea was to bring capital into the affordable housing space in south africa, with a fund that offers families of modest income safe and good accommodation. citi got involved very early on and showed an enormous commitment. and that gave other investors confidence. citi's really unique, because they bring deep understanding of what's happening in africa. i really believe we only live once, and so you need to take an idea that you have and go for it. you have the opportunity to say, "i've been part of the creation of over 27,000 units of housing," and to replicate this across the entire african continent. every year, the amount of data your enterprise uses goes up. smart devices are up. cloud is up. analytics is up. seems like everything is up except your budget.
8:25 am
introducing comcast business enterprise solutions. with a different kind of network that delivers the bandwidth you need without the high cost. because you can't build the business of tomorrow on the network of yesterday. because you can't build the business of tomorrow ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪
8:26 am
. still to come this morning, fed speak, oil prices, geopolitics, what drives market moves into the december and beyond. that is after the break. in the meantime, look at the u.s. equity futures. trending higher all morning, dow futures up by 85 points.
8:27 am
8:28 am
8:29 am
welcome back, everybody, federal reserve vichairman sendg out signals. >> in the relatively near future, some major central banks begin gradually moving away from near zero interest rates. we have done everything we can to avoid surprising the markets
8:30 am
and governments when we move. >> joining us now, mike hanspp and, david, starting with you. >> good morning. >> it's been a strange reaction, looks like the market is finally, the target's ready for the idea the fed raises rate, meaning it's a good thing because the economy is better. sk . >> we they they raise, slowly, plateau levels below norms. the fed's fund rate is not above 1% in all of 2016 or 2% through 2017. you know, when the fed hikes, a little bit more dollar strength, limit the rebound in commodity prices, but as long as the ten year treasury ye does not jump up, the pes are supported. >> mike, they are prepared to take something on like this?
8:31 am
>> largely. it's been the most telegraphed hiking cycle in modern times, right? look at the underlying growth trend in the u.s., it's running 2.35, but longer run potential is 2. you know, the economy's expanding, decent job numbers as of late, but officials are concerned about the outlook, nothing as strong, but does not stop going into summer. >> the long run, all we do is 2%? are you that depressed? what's wrong? >> well, i ask, where do you get productivity? the big -the missing -- >> corporate taxes, get rid of regulation. >> well, that's no -- >> if you have an election, why -- >> take advantage of our own natural resources. >> that's it. we're europe now. >> no, no, europe's one at best. right? >> we were three for years. >> for a while. we fell before the crisis. mismeasured. >> half empty. >> no. >> you're a downer. we're not talking to you
8:32 am
anymore. >> where is productivity? i think you can get it, but where do you get it? how do we get it soon? >> well, look at numbers recently, they are not great, right? >> no. >> look at longer trends, there's a couple places i've seen improvements right? i'm well balanced. you see some improvements in productivity energy sector to spillover in the broader economy. there's a notable pickup in educational attainment with the crisis. a lot of people went back to school or stayed in skochool. the other thing you're seeing is a gradual easing of bank lending and some rebound in the small business sector. they lag the cycle. i think there's scope over time for those to rebound as well. i think, you know, getting productivity numbers back from today, unfortunately, not as high as a decade ago. not unlikely. demographics weigh against growth, as we have a smaller, you know, worer to retiree ratio. >> technology, education, those are important drivers, but
8:33 am
prompt drivers of productivity are investment, cap x, and trade. though are likely to stay slow, particularly u.s. exports through 2016 because of the dollar. look, we lowered our standards as to what constitutes good productivity and good economic growth. u.s. economy probably is better than 2% gdp growth, labor market tightens, which is why the fed hikes, but there are profit pressures, revenue pressures at the s&p that persist. >> are we looking at the drop in earnings? things improve from here? that's the drum beat i hear. >> yes, we are going to exit this two quarter profit recession, s&p news down slightly on the year. we will down revenues about 4%, likely the case for full 2015, you we will exit the profit with recession in a wimper. earnings growth is not better than 5% next year. >> jason? >> i was going to say, yeah, stanley fisher, this is great arguments for why the fed has become too much the center of attention. it's crowded out any other type
8:34 am
of policy that could produce short run productivity gains, particularly cap x. right now, the cost to capital is so low that my view that it makes more sense for companies to do financial engineering, issue bonds to buy back stock, than it does to do capital expenditur expenditures. to me, these are the things joe is right. unfortunately, we got to wait another year if we're lucky. it's only a year. >> i thought you meant like temperature year average of 2%. >> i think longer run. you know, we're not going to see as high productivity as before, right? i think that -- we're going up. >> things that can be done. >> only in america. >> export oil. >> let's go for if. >> let's go for it all. >> that helps. don't get lulled into this in seven years. doesn't mean it has to be this way. >> true. i don't disagree you'll see better productive than now. the productivity now is .40. >> when were you born? >> not much different from you.
8:35 am
>> do you remember reagan? >> pretty well, yes, i do. >> in grade school. >> no. weren't you in grade school? >> no, no, no, no, no, no. i voted for jimmy carter. that explains a lot. >> i voted for ron reagan. that could explain a lot too. >> no. >> ultimately, you guys would be putting money in the stock market right now or not, though? if you look at the price, if you look at valuations, know you are dealing with volatility, what do you think? >> it's still true there's few other places to go. >> what we find attractive in the target is the health care and technology sector, that's keeping me bullish on s&p. energy and industrials, the profits are going to be challenged for the rest of the cycle, and there are alternatives. buy the commodity, oil, by energy credit. >> would you do that? buy commodity oil in u.s. stocks right now? >> i'm more attracted to oil than energy equities at this point. >> boy, i have to say, david, i would go the other way, personally. i would be more interested in
8:36 am
the equities just to the extent of which -- major. >> any? >> energy equities to the extent the dividends for the majors are safe. at the margin, i don't know if there's a lot of extra supply. anything's wrong, you see the commodity, a lot of the increases as well, helping the equities from a leverage basis more. >> david, mike, thank you, and, of course, jason is here the rest of the program. when we come back, bass pro shops shopping for acquisitions, a possible buyer? founder johnny morris is joining us after the quick break. ♪ the future belongs to the fast.
8:37 am
8:38 am
and to help you accelerate, we've created a new company... one totally focused on what's next for your business. the true partnership where people,technology and ideas push everyone forward. accelerating innovation. accelerating transformation. accelerating next. hewlett packard enterprise.
8:39 am
when registers ring, there's companies between the credit card and bank account. dom chu dives into the processers winning big in the holiday season. >> square put the payment processing and digital companies front and center for companies, and see what happens when pricing ipo below expected range, but there's a huge first day pop here. you can see square up another 5% in the premarket session after a big gain yesterday on its ipo. are there other companies that are in the related industry? there have been. large cap stocks in the russell 1,000 index, a hand full of them tied to the payment processing space where you swipe things on ipads or you connect banks with their credit card companies or you use chips in the secure credit cards. global payments is one of the
8:40 am
stocks, each of these, by the way, a $9 billion company. global payments rose by 77% so far, just in 2015 alone, so one of the payments processers are doing well. total system services, another company that does similar type of payment network payment processing type work, up 60%, and vantiv up 50% higher, massive moves. as to where the stocks are expected to go, the runup took perhaps steam out of the some of the stocks because if you look at the average target that wall street analysts have on these shares, global payments is our -- excuse me, already at 6% above its current analyst target price. unless they take up estimates, we could see shares stall out here. total system services, 4% above the price, and vantiv 6%, could go upside if targets met. joe, a lot of the companies in focus just because of square. we'll see how they square in the all-important holiday shopping
8:41 am
season, guys. back to you, joe. >> thanks. less than a week away from black friday. exactly a week away. the clock is ticking. >> starts before 8:00 p.m. >> midnight, we're like -- okay, close enough. shoppers are lured -- i like that -- because we are talking bass -- lured into stores of big sales, but will consumers take the bait. ha-ha. let's ask johnny morris, founder and ceo of bass pro shops. just the name itself sort of makes you feel good. good to have a company like that, isn't it? >> i think it's great. how is business? good? >> retail in general, it's been soft, the weather is not our friend. it has been warm. helped our boat business, that's great, but apparel and things like that are slower, but the current trends are headed in a positive way. >> when did you pass brunswick
8:42 am
as the largest retailer of boats or seller of boats? >> four years ago. >> was it? >> we've been in the fishing business for many years, and overall boats, we are more involved in all types of boats. if i could take this to minute, when we start this, i came here this morning because it's happy thanksgiving time of year, and i especially was grateful for the opportunity to come here. you know, i feel so strong about american free enterprise system and what it means as an important part of our overall country, and i think more than you guys realize, you are a big part of that. i mean it. i watch the show every day. i speak for -- i read the other day, there's 28 million, i think, small businesses in this country, and they employ, you know, so many people, and to be able to watch a show, it's like wall street journal on steroids, like a current harvard mba, listening to the guests talking about real world experiences every day, and to be able to
8:43 am
have a world champion of the free enterprise. becky, dou do a great job, a big fan. i speak for many people, so at thanks giving time, thank you for all you do. >> thank you. >> if you think i'm going to stop you -- [ laughter ] i don't know if i -- go on -- [ laughter ] >> well, i could. [ laughter ] >> well, thank you very much. that's awesome. all right. are you going to buy cabella's? >> well, you know -- >> that would be a heck of a combination. you have to admit. you are east, they are more west, right? >> yes. there's been a lot of speculation, elliot invested in the company, and they are pretty much activists. there's speculation. i can just say, you know, both our companies grew up pretty much the same way from passion of the founders, and around the outdoors, and there's so many great people there. it's a great brand.
8:44 am
we respect it. there's a lot of rumors and speculation. who knows where they lead, if anywhere, but we have a high regard of the company. >> has elliot reached out to you? >> they probably have. we have not -- we have not had any visits with them to be candid, none at all. >> right. >> what -- how many different products do you have in a bass? do you know? have you counted them up? >> i think 170,000 stock keeping units. >> wow. >> all the lures, everything. >> wow. that's the cool part. >> a lot of fun stuff in there. >> talk about the breakdown, apparel is soft. we heard that from macy's, everyone selling apparel. it's great for the boats, other business. what's the mix in terms of how much of your sales are apparel, how much are fishing, how much are boats? >> good question. our company name is bass pro shop, but on the front of the stores, our banner is outdoor world, and we have, as you mentioned, becky, being in the stores, we have something for everybody, and our whole mission creating our stores is creating a fun shopping experience, very
8:45 am
unique, with really expert service. so we have one of our fastest growing areas is apparel, and like women's apparel, stuff for gals, boating, and maybe, you know, i think we have a healthy mix of maybe our marine business and fishing is counter cyclical to the hunting and other camping things, so it's emerging more in time to be more general outdoor gear and apparel, but we never get away from fishing and hunting. >> yeah. >> i can't imagine that nip would do online versus -- people drive 150, 100 miles to get to the store, and then they spend, like, a day there, right? who wants to do that on a computer in the basement? >> there you go. proud of you for that, but, you know, our business for many years, we were just primarily in the catalog business, so we have a background -- >> you can't. >> today, like, mobile device, it's way over my head, but
8:46 am
people shop online. they study it before they come to the stores. >> to see it and go in and see it. combined. >> it's hard to just say, here's retail, here's online, or direct r or catalog. it's all one. today, things, trends change, things merged together. >> how long do people stay in the stores? >> couple hours at least on average. three, four hours. >> boats, what percentage of the sales are big ticket items? >> a third. >> was not like that all the time? >> no. the first boat was a fishing boat, everything you needed, boat, trailer, motor. everything you needed. >> can i get a yacht? >> a nice macco. you like salt water fish. >> that's right. i'm going to talk like you. depending on who i'm talking to, you know, johnny morris, thank you very much, appreciate it. thanks, that was -- i'm going to have to play that for my wife if
8:47 am
we have that. look. look. somebody -- just watch this, will ya? you don't know who you are dealing with. >> johnny, come back. >> thank you very much. >> thank you. all right, when we return, jim cramer from the new york stock exchange, here's the futures now, we're coming right back. proud of you, son. ge! a manufacturer. well that's why i dug this out for you. it's your grandpappy's hammer and he would have wanted you to have it. it meant a lot to him... yes, ge makes powerful machines. but i'll be writing the code that will allow those machines to share information with each other. i'll be changing the way the world works. (interrupting) you can't pick it up, can you? go ahead. he can't lift the hammer. it's okay though! you're going to change the world. sometimes they just drop in. always obvious.
8:48 am
cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. directv is so advanced that you could put tvs anywhere without looking at cable wires and boxes in every room. how are they always one step ahead of us? well, because their technology is far superior. or because they have someone on the inside. is that right, gil? sir, i would never... he's with them! he's wearing a wire. take off his shirt! take off his shirt! oh! ah! alright, i'm putting you in charge of the holiday party. (vo) get rid of cable and upgrade to directv. call 1-800-directv.
8:49 am
8:50 am
welcome welcome back, french authorities are saying police conducted nearly 800 raids since last week's attacks in paris. last night alone, there were 182 raids, detaining 17 people and seizing drugs and 76 weapons. the senate is expected to vote today on whether to extend its state of emergency for three more months in france. >> let us get down now to the new york stock exchange where jim cramer joins us now. a lot of this is nike. here we go again. >> you have a company like nike firing on all cylinders. i don't think people thought they needed to do the dividend boost. i had flex on last night, loaded
8:51 am
with technology, business so great in western europe and in china. it can carry a lot of companies with this. this and ross stores creates a rosy view. also a & f for retail which a week ago was troubled. that makes people think the fed can raise. the consumer is doing well. i won't get in the way of that. it's a decent story. if we were convinced that it would be one and done and the market got more -- this might run more. >> i think that's the takeaway. i was so thrilled at that. when i look at the meeting notes, it seems to me what they're saying is, yes, we have to raise, but then we'll take our time. i think the market is totally sanguine with that. when you get that trajectory roadmap, you say bring it on. we're fine. we'll see if it hurts the economy. any sort of considered not on autopilot fed is something this market likes.
8:52 am
i wish draghi didn't -- every time our market goes up and the dollar goes down, immediately come out and say the dollar is too high -- the dollar will get higher and the euro has to go lower. that's the only fly in the ointment right now, other than the fact that china -- i don't know what they do in china now other than buy sneakers and lattes. >> you don't think draghi knows things are worse than we know. >> i think he does. auto sales were bails. tourism was bad. they need to deal with the russians they have to get past that in order to get the economy moving. they can't do it on the backs of united states consumers. but there, i said something that the government should be saying. either government, republican or democrat, but it's not a focus of washington. >> are you a bass guy or a cabela's guy? >> well, my -- you know, there's some people in my family that like ar-10s, they're easier to
8:53 am
come by at cabela's. >> all right. thank you. an update on that situation in mali. here is the latest. some 124 guests and 12 employees remain inside the radisson hotel in mali after islamic gunmen attacked the building and took 170 people hostage. heavy gunfire is being heard from inside the hotel. that's where special forces are seeking to free hostages. again this is news just breaking. when we return, we'll run you through some stories that we think you should be talking about this morning or that you think we should be talking about. including the new way to move on from your ex according to facebook.
8:54 am
excellent. researching a hunch, and making a decision. time for a change of menu. research and invest with e*trade's browser trading. e*trade.
8:55 am
[so i use quickbooks and run mye entire business from the cloud. i keep an eye on sales and expenses from anywhere. even down here in the dark i can still see we're having a great month. and celebrate accordingly. i run on quickbooks.that's how i own it. i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet?
8:56 am
every year, the amount of data your enterprise uses goes up. smart devices are up. cloud is up. analytics is up. seems like everything is up except your budget. introducing comcast business enterprise solutions. with a different kind of network that delivers the bandwidth you need without the high cost. because you can't build the business of tomorrow on the network of yesterday. time for keep squawking. some of the stories you all have been buzzing about. breaking up is hard to do, but facebook is looking to ease your pain. the social media giant testing a new tool that will manage how
8:57 am
users interact after a relationship ends. you may soon have options to wipe your exand a few memories from your feed without unfriending them. emily tweets it's about time facebook creates technology to block my ex's footprint. now i'll hopefully never have to unfriend another one. >> i unfriend them all. >> check out this i cou, a kaya fell out of a boat while floating down the rapid. a volunteer leapt into the rushing water, vaulting over the kayak to grab ahold of the bo boater. the kayaker had a broken tailbone and fractured vertebrae. >> wow. there is a hero. >> that looks -- eye yak doeska
8:58 am
seem that great in rapids. >> i like it in smoother waters. >> reminded me of ronnie cox and better reynolds. >> yeah. a little scary. >> bone came right out of his leg. >> stop. stop. >> do you remember that? >> yeah. out of the wetsuit. all fleshy, compound fracture me. >> enjoy your breakfast. >> and daily fantasy sport sites -- calm down. the rules would prohibit people under the age of 21 from playing and ban fantasy competition based on college sports. it would also bar professional athletes and agents from participating. >> the food and drug administration says genetically modified salmon is safe to eat. it's now allowed to be sold in the united states. the fda approved the applications for the aqua
8:59 am
advantage salmon, a fish engineered to grow much faster than usual. the company will not have to label its fish as genetically modified. >> no thanks. i'll pass. >> you won't know. that's the point. they won't have to label it. >> another thing to worry about. >> you don't like salmon. >> i'm not a big salmon fan. having some other -- >> you know every animal you eat now is bred hundreds and hundreds of years, now they can -- >> what are they doing? >> there's so many improvements. don't take any genetically modified drugs, cancer drugs, auto immune disease. every drug developed has been -- >> just no. >> relax. >> with the genetically modified stuff, it's not the genetically modified stuff, it's if you're taking crops and making them
9:00 am
immune to pesticides that you can dump on them. >> if you can genetically modify a plant to not need a pesticide to fight off a favor of -- >> that's good. >> it's all good? >> it's all good. >> thanks for coming in. >> make sure you join us on monday. "squawk on the street" is next. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at the new york stock exchange. dow and s&p on track for the best week in six. though there's plenty to be wary of today. this ongoing hostage situation in west africa. we'll fill you in on at latest. europe is mixed. draghi reiterating having to act in december. not much more from that. we'll hear from

49 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on