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tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  November 20, 2015 9:00am-11:01am EST

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immune to pesticides that you can dump on them. >> if you can genetically modify a plant to not need a pesticide to fight off a favor of -- >> that's good. >> it's all good? >> it's all good. >> thanks for coming in. >> make sure you join us on monday. "squawk on the street" is next. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at the new york stock exchange. dow and s&p on track for the best week in six. though there's plenty to be wary of today. this ongoing hostage situation in west africa. we'll fill you in on at latest. europe is mixed. draghi reiterating having to act in december. not much more from that. we'll hear from bullard and
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dudley this morning. nike taking shareholder friendly steps, upping the dividend. that stock moving high. >> more on the inversion rules, actions laid out by the treasury department. does not appear they will derail the pfizer-allergan deal. >> and abercrombie, foot locker, ross stores beat. >> and a day after square and match go public, both stocks moving higher, but two delayed ipos pull because of unfavorable market conditions. first up, french special forces went into mali in west africa just two years ago to try to clean things up after jihadists had taken control of the northern part of the country. michelle caruso-cabrera is in paris this morning with the latest. good morning. >> reporter: good morning. that is exactly why the hostage situation in mali is such huge news here in france, especially
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in the wake of what happened one week ago. so that situation is ongoing. we have gotten a statement from the hotel group, the brussels base company that operates the radisson blu saying there are 124 guests, 13 staff still inside that hotel. this is seven hours after the gunmen stormed that hotel in the capital of bamako. we understand they initially took 170 hostages, 30 employees. the associated press reporting at least three hostages are dead. the u.s. state department put out a message to americans in mali advising them to "shelter in place." there were two airline crew there's that hotel, all airline employees are safe. back here in france, we are learning more about that violent raid on wednesday that we told you so many about.
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the french prosecutor confirming that three bodies have been found in the rubble. one was the female suicide bomber, we can confirm that. she dead natured her explosives vest. they found her passport on the scene. she is reportedly the cousin of the attack ring leader, abdelhamid abaaoud who was also killed in the raid. we don't know about the third body that was found in the rubble. the prosecutors and the interior minister made clear the bodies were so mangled and bullet ridden that it's been difficult to identify them. they had to go by fingerprints. back to you. >> michelle, we'll come back to you for more on that this morning. futures are on the rise. the dow and s&p on track to post the best weekly performance since early october. draghi is hinting that fresh stimulus measures could be unveiled in december saying the ecb will act quickly to boost inflation in the eurozone and
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nike rising after announcing that $12 billion buyback. this is their sixth two for one since 1990. >> this company is not acknowledged enough for being so brilliant. mark parker, ceo. he's a shoe designer. the company is remarkable. i had flex on last night, a manufacturing company that does a lot of manufacturing for nike. you're talking about the best. technology. when we discussed whether nike is a technology company in the shoe business not unlike whether starbucks is a technology business in the coffee business. this is a new model. flex emphasized they can move quickly for what they went in western europe, eastern europe, china, the united states. you will never hear mark parker say a good thing. he's so self-effacing. it's a remarkable company. it deserves the accolades. it keeps making money for shareholders.
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>> parker named business person of the year by fortune. it's the top performer on the dow for the year. disney's close behind. >> right. >> for the past five years, they've bought back 10 billion in stocks. they've hiked the dividend every year. kept cash at about 5 billion. >> they -- they are remarkable company. they were the first one to signal, look, the chinese economy may be -- maybe they're not taking as much iron ore, tin and nickel, but they're buying nikes like mad. i like kevin plank, but i don't envy him. i met mark parker a couple years ago. i thought i would be meeting like someone steve prefonteyn or phil nighknight. he was, hey, how you doing? good technology. i might as well-being talking to
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the ceo of mentor graphics or of nimble storage. >> mentor graphics? you bring that up today because it's down 20%? >> it's also from out there. my daughter lives in oregon, they ought to rename the state nike. >> okay. all right. >> nike state. nike town. >> you don't like that? >> she calls it the duck state. i think nike is more impressive. >> nike, god of who? >> they will account for about half of the gain. abercrombie & fitc abercrombie & fitch's decline in comes not as bad as forecasted. foot locker and ross had stronger sales. a & f, they said the season would be promotional. >> so did ross. first quarter minus 8% for the company. this is a & f. second minus 4. third quarter minus 1 this
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progression is great. i attribute it to michael jeffries and his departure. this company does not even have a ceo and it's better than having a ceo. arthur martinez running it michael jeffries said if you're not good looking enough don't come to our stores. this is back to being a company that has underpromised and is now overdelivering. arthur martinez is doing wonderful job as opposed to gap. ross stores, great call. ross stores, we forgot when the big broad line stores have too much inventory, ross comes in with the money, takes the product and ross you dress for less. i love shopping at ross. unfortunately most of them are in pennsylvania. it's a bit of a stretch. cheap gasoline, you save a lot of money. >> it's true. cheap gasoline -- it's funny you mention saving it, the american consumer is saying more of the dividend from low gasoline
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prices which has been with us for some time now. such a mixed bag in retail. we are towards the end of earning season. we look at macy's, nordstrom, then you look at walmart earlier this week in terms of top line growth. these names good. gap, not so good. what are the big -- give me the big takeaway? >> i have it. is this like a setup? >> no. >> i have it. >> give it to me. >> those who spent a lot of money online who just said, listen, we'll figure it out. by the way, williams-sonoma had been, but they said last night they had to reinvest. those who spent a lot of money online are winners. >> target was not a winner. >> target did not spend a lot of money online. they were targeting 30% growth online and came in at 20. severely disappointed. i was hoping for 40. >> people are not going to the mall. if you want them, you have to get have an online strategy.
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>> l brands is one of the few mall survivors. howard schultz two years ago the mall would go the way of the pterdactyl. >> and mickey drexler, critical of the mall. >> i have my mall with me. did you bring your mall? >> yeah. i have my mall. >> yesterday they did that to me on the work phones. >> you downloaded the new software. >> i don't know. >> i have two malls. this is the short hills mall. this is the livingston mall this is what's going on in the country. my two malls. howard predicted it. shultz predicted this would become your mall. think what did well. home depot, not in the mall. lowe's, not in the mall. not in the mall. and i think what's happened is they have tremendous -- the spend in homers haves the apparel, unless it's a tjx, where apparel is cheaper or ross, where apparel is cheaper. it's not just the mall, it's the
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spend on the infra, and that's what doug mcmillan is trying to do. it's cheap. it's bargains. that's the winners. and if you sell nikes, like foot locker. >> a week from black friday your expectations overall that the season will be read as good? bad? good for some? >> good for some. those who have spent the money on the infrastructure. williams and sonoma, they had gotten ahead. pottery barn is bad. i was talking to the executive producer yesterday, she said is it a surprise? she gets an e-mail every 37 minutes from pottery barn. >> i'm on that list. >> they spam you. anyone send you more things than dearly beloved, there's $1.7 million waiting for new a locker in kenya? if you spend online -- target was the disappointment of the
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quarter besides nordstrom. i felt personally burned there. >> nordstrom you bemoaned the lack of explanation. >> nordstrom was like -- my god it was like velchsmurtz? we have 50 minutes to go over this, doctor? a big funk. i don't know why. then -- >> is this a woody allen movie? >> it was an existential conflict on nordstrom. macy, ahh! home depot, man, we can't keep up with the demand. >> right. >> home depot was a demand problem. high quality. yesterday we had frank costello, the former ceo who still does not understand the notion of power gardening. he equates it with zen. >> um, you'll get silence -- when you talk about gardening -- >> every time it comes to gardening -- >> silence.
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>> yesterday he was agitated. >> i was upset once with my flats from home depot. frank costello sent me a bag of seeds and said maybe go from scratch. >> i remember that. >> no apologies. he never explain, never complain attitude. his team that has taken over for him is brilliant, not unlike the team that -- remember costco started it all with a great number. we didn't know how good it was, all-time high yesterday. are you a black card member or just a regular. >> regular. >> regular gold star? she gets the rebate! not only do we save, we get the rebate. >> unbelievable. >> isn't it? >> i'm so happy for you. >> you acknowledge that. >> i have to get ready for pfizer and allergan. >> we'll get more on that potential deal, what treasury is saying about the rules as the u.s. takes further steps to crack down on tax inversions. we're inside of 30 trading days until the end of the year. we'll talk about how the s&p has
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behaved in the last 30 days when we come back.
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yesterday we gave you some specifics on those continued conversations between pfizer and
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allergan designed to reach a deal under which pfizer would acquire allergan for a little more than 11 of each shares for allergan. a late yesterday we got this new notice from treasury about inversions that we had been alerted to in the morning would be coming later in the week. later in the week meaning actually only about eight hours later. so we have had an opportunity to digest this new notice. none of which will take effect, but all of which is rules that will be made at some point and then would be applied -- don't forget, when you actually file your tax return as a company. that's where the application of these so-called rules takes place. the big take away for those focused on the pfizer-allergan potential transaction is that it doesn't appear to have a great
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deal of impact on it. again because that deal is currently contemplated and as i've reported would result in pfizer owning less than 60% of the combined entity. that's the way they have always gone. when pfizer thought about transactions, they were focused on potentially two, either a glaxo deal which also results in a change in tax jurisdiction and an owner's stake below 60% combined deal. or an allergan deal. they went ahead with the allergan deal. the two sides were waits aing a focused on what treasury had to say. now that they have gotten it, it doesn't appear to hurt their combination, they're back on focusing on other issues they needed to tie up to get this deal done. does that mean a monday announcement? yesterday that appears unlikely. >> now it feels like it. >> you move towards thanksgiving, many people -- people familiar with the situation told me, let's assume
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it would be the following monday after thanksgiving. but timing can always be hard to determine fully, especially given it wasn't that much. now, that said, these rules which will be retroactive to september, which have been tightened yet again, might have an impact on the mylan deal. might have an impact on the medtronic covidian inversion that took place. and there's one key thing people are waiting for and perhaps focused on. that has to do with earnings stripping. we got some commentary from treasury saying they may try to take some action on earnings stripping. some believe that you could get a unilateral action interpreting earning stripping rules that allows for a recharacterization of the debt to equity. which would mean you could no longer deduct your interest on the debt. what am i talking about? the parent loans money to the
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u.s. corporation, u.s. sub s subsidiary, that u.s. subsidiary can lower taxable earnings because they are paying back interest on the loan they received. that's tax deductible. that's been an effective way to lower your u.s. tax base. there is some question. in all of this, there may be an overreach by the treasury. they seem to be going back to congress and saying, pfizer will leave this country as a u.s. taxpayer, that's your problem. >> i felt that. i felt this deal was set up to say, look, we would like to stop these things, congress, we can't. this is a good example. when finished paying off for the generics, allergan will have no debt. there will be no deduction. clean balance sheet. >> and so-called hopscotch loans. the ski that pfizer gets access
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to overseas cash. in these kinds of transaction, a hopscotch loan -- you get 5:seconds to that cash and use it to pay part of the consideration. that's not happening here. it's all stock. >> brent told you that he wouldn't sell for less -- he said 3.80. they can't get there! unless pfizer goes up to 34. >> unless pfizer goes up to 34. yesterday it was down sharply. you're talking about over 4 billion shares. yesterday a lot of guys were shorting the stock. >> yes, they were. i'll tell you, brent has been saying this thing, they can get to 3.80 on earnings power. >> what if brent is the combined ceo of the company and they come out with big accretion numbers? >> my travel trust owns it. at 3.05, ridiculously low. >> big spread still because of regulatory risk, nonetheless, even with this seemingly less
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harmful -- >> let me say, i read every article about it. not every one has been as informed as you. most have been stupid. thank you for clarifying. most of them, it would say this is to block allergan. in the old days i would have called those people idiots. i'm so far away from that. i garden. i'm zen. they're misinformed. >> we'll get cramer's mad dash and get to the opening in a moment. bullard will be coming up. more "squawk on the street." those new glasses?
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welcome back to "squawk on
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the street." time for a mad dash for this friday. we'll be nimble. >> well, someone wasn't nimble. nimble be storage, nimble be slow. this is a company that was right in the sweet spot. hybrid storage for big data. every fabulous buzzword which is why all the analysts are recommending it. there was a very weak guidance. and this was the hottest -- it's a read through to pure storage. when you think of storage of data, this is the company people were proud of. >> did they explain to us what's behind the lower guidance? >> i didn't get -- i did not get what i thought was satisfactory explanation. i think the analysts didn't either. that's why it took peoples breaths away. this is the business you wanted to be in. you know how the internet, things, all the different pieces of data, you need to sort it out using splunk where the ceo who
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retired, who i like very much. this is data to watson it, so to speak -- watson it -- >> ibm reference. >> ibm. we find there's flaws in this part of the story. i believe in big data, i believe interpreting it. that's why i like sales force. >> i hear so much about clouds, those buzzwords, but there's no one pure way to play this growth that i know is occurring. i get this, and i get crushed. >> sales force. >> it is. >> just a cloud based company. marc benioff called s.a.p. and oracle, cloud denials. >> we talked about that yesterday. >> they think they're a cloud company that was a bit of a -- you know? >> right. cloud. not climate change deniers, just cloud. >> people not familiar with
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cnbc. worse than the wife sometimes. she goes what time is that show on? >> we're thanking you for not being unaware of cnbc. the opening bell is just ahead. we'll be watching square and match after that strong debut yesterday. we have two pulled ipos today. we'll talk about that. here at td ameritrade, they work hard.
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you're watching is "squawk on the street," live from the financial capital of the world. the opening bell in just a minute's time. it's a busy friday morning. this ongoing hostage situation in mali. nbc news reporting that u.s. special forces are assisting in the hostage recovery effort and there may be some u.s. citizens present at that hotel. the french prime minister indicating the death toll from last friday's attacks in paris has risen to 130. jim, it's been such a week of terror and fear, yet the dow is up almost 500 points in that time. >> some people saying war is
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good for the market. i always hate to be that glib. other people are saying that this is the beginning of maybe a union with russia. remember, the downturn started after sochi, when russia broke with the rest. suddenly people recognizing that maybe russia is teaming up. that would make it so economies are better. merkel not going that way. president not going that way. but the french seem to be the old french. when -- the french used to say, listen, we're not taking this anymore. >> no doubt about that. >> wow. >> the s&p at the bottom of the screen. at the big board, citymeals on wheels, delivering meals to home bound and the elderly. at the nasdaq, match group operator of dating websites, celebrating its ipo which happened yesterday. match gained 23%, square 45%.
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combined market value of $85 million. we are at a moment where there's some realism on the private market. i'm doing work on the 120 unicorns, break out the chainsaw that horn is coming off. like marc benioff said, this game is over. what pricing -- it's all over. it will be price discovery. deals will be like square which means down 50% from the last round, so there was a musical chairs game. it's over. this is the beginning of we need to have these companies get real $120 billion companies. we want about five of them. >> here's the ft arguing that uber and lift trying to raise
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1.5 billion by year-end. initial talks of uber at 70. that number coming down quickly. >> 70? 70? >> i love travis. and that's one of the better ones. >> i couldn't find my car the other day using uber. they charged me $10. i decided it's over. >> they had a good run. >> that $10 cancellation fee drove me insane. >> i will do what you do to me often when i say something like that, really? >> do you think uber will become a subscription service with self-driving cars around the planet that we pay $3,000 a year for and we don't own cars? >> that's why it's going to be a $120 billion valuation. whoever is in the rounds, hon t honest honestly, look at some of the prices of the public market stocks like nimble storage. you will see a big difference between companies in storage, of which there are a lot, private and this.
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and the people in the valley -- valley of the dolls. remember your folks read that book? valley of the dolls? >> yes, i'm familiar with it. >> beyond the valley of the dolls. >> we're beyond the valley of the dolls. when i was out in san francisco the last time, like, stop throwing money at me. the restaurants are -- the hotel rooms. they're coming back to the rest of the country. that's my prediction. they joined the rest of the country. >> that's a big prediction. >> it is. >> they had quite a run. >> that run with the square deal is over. jack dorsey broke the spell. didn't seem like he would be the guy who did it. >> interesting. we did talk to him specifically about valuations. didn't give us much. we also talked about the future of square and how he's going to build that company. here's what he said. >> we really want to accelerate our tools out to sellers all over the world. a big part of our future is
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really around this device that we announced -- our new reader that accepts apple pay and emb, we want to see that on every side of the transaction. we want to associate that square shape with you can pay with your phone. it just feels great. >> you said yesterday you love square at a price. they gave you that price. >> that was the whole point of "mad money." i said if this comes in between 11 and 13, it's a steal. anything below that, great. the other way -- i also said you could maybe take the money and run. starbucks which was their partner what a better system. if starbucks said he wants to white label their system, it's the end of all these guys. first data in there. without a doubt, square will say for the little proprietor, it's good, you get the paper receipts. it's an ecosystem. there's no ecosystem here that can beat starbucks. the other day dunkin' donuts
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announced they're doing something on mobile. starbucks is a technology -- do you think kevin johnson would take over as the number two guy of starbucks? he ran juniper! this is -- starbucks is so far ahead. if they want to do payments and spread it out, it's going to be starbucks, game, set, match. visa, which is close to them. if charlie shar pf wants to do something, that's another game changer. i do not think jpmorgan is the game changer. that's jack. you have to be careful with the stock. this is one of the most crowded parts of the ecosystem in the world. the battle for the register. >> the payment. >> yep. yep. you get it. the battle for the register. >> i do. i get it. >> he gets it. >> as we watch the dow up 110 here this morning. we get the latest on the developing hostage situation in
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mali. ron mott joins us from london. >> good morning. here's the latest. we got word from the hotel itself that the situation obviously is still unfolding. there's still 138 people inside. that's 125 guests, 13 employees in the building. we know the malian military is inside the facility. the french special forces has about 40 members, we understand that are either en route or at the hotel as well. just by happenstance, but our pentagon correspondent, jim miklaszewski reports maybe 25 u.s. personnel were in the building at the time this happened. they helped to facilitate the evacuation of a lot of people to get out of the hotel. but they're not involved in trying to end this siege. this started about 1:00 a.m. eastern time when gunmen stormed into the hotel. this sun confirmed.
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there are reports out that they were able to breach security outside of this hotel. they came in with a vehicle with diplomatic plates on it. apparently they were hollering and then started roaming through the hotel and collecting hostages as they went along. the latest death toll is three, that's confirmed. we're seeing a u.s. military spokesperson saying six american citizens were among those recovered in the hotel. we don't know -- have confirmation if there are americans still in the hotel. a fluid situation. there the president of france, francois hollande talked about this. president obama has been briefed on it. at last report there were sounds of gunfire coming out of that hotel. >> ron, appreciate that. we'll talk about the market
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reaction to what ron told us. in the meantime, bob pisani. >> the dow is up 100 points. nike is a big part of it. great day for nike. i'll tell you the story, they're aggressively returning cash to shareholders. that's the important thing. the dividend increased 14%. $12 billion buyback. these guys are buyback monsters. i'm trying to put this into perspective. they have reduced share count by an average 2% annually for the last ten years. that's enormous influence. we talk about ibm as a big aggressive buybacker. nike is the king. elsewhere, the retailers, another good day for retailers. abercrombie surprised everyone. sales improving. that's 20%. foot locker has been strong. ross stores has been strong
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following on tjx. another good day for retailers and another good day for the major indices. remember, we were down last week 3%. guess what we're up this week? 3%. the russell is lagging a bit. but germany up 3.8. that's not a typo. france is up 2.2% this week, even china up 1.4%. on the ipo front, it's another tough ipo day because two out of the three didn't make it. duluth holdings, which makes buck naked underwear, $12. that was well below the range being discussed. that got out. truck hero was postponed. noble midstream didn't make it either. two out of three didn't make it. i would note square and match which went yesterday trading to the upside. want to point out something that will happen next week and a half. china is going to get bigger. on december 1, msci, one of the biggest indexers in the world is
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bringing all of china's american-listed stocks into their global indices. alibaba, baidu, they are not in any of these global indices. they only list here that will change on december 1st. china's weighting will increase in many of these global indices. these indexes have become important because essentially the world is moving to them. there are more investors investing in stocks tied to indices, that's what the etfs are about. the passive funds we talk about. the composition of the indices has a big impact on investors. if you look at some other things, alibaba is going to have a much bigger weighting. bigger value in the world indices. baidu also much bigger weighting. the emerging market etfs we talk about. for example, like the eem, for example. this is based on -- they use
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msci indices. they'll have greater weightings in china. china's weighting will go from maybe 24% to 27%, 28%. china will get bigger. shanghai which is all the "a" shares trading, already has a link with hong kong. foreign investors can get in soon, the next quarter. there will be a link with the shenzhen stock exchange which has newer, younger names in it with hong kong. once that happens, you might have the "a" shares, all of mainland china next year could get thrown into the global indices. most of these stocks are represented through hong kong. there's thousands of chinese stocks that could go into the global indices. the big thing is china's weighting in the global marketplace is going to greatly increase because everyone is moving towards those indexes. we'll keep an eye on that. december 1st, a lot of money moving into chinese names. back to you. dow is up 128. a lot of that, jim, is nike.
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again, we're talking about a tough week for the planet and humanity. yet nasdaq on track for the best week since july? >> look at disney. being an international company doing so well. paris disney. percolating off the idea that you're going to get star wars. people are believing. these retailers are strong. they're leading the market today. under armour, people worry being inventory, zooming off nike. kohl's coming back. nordstrom percolating back. >> all with december essentially in the bag. >> yeah. this is a remarkable week. you were right to marvel about it. if you looked back to last friday afternoon, would have felt that this week is going to be the worst. the fed will talk about raising rates. that the -- retail is very weak because it's so warm. we'll have a lot of industrials come out and say the dollar is hurting them because the dollar has gotten strong. none of that has happened.
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the only thing that's occurred, we see commodity pricing down. though the oil stocks seem to have stopped going down with the exception of a couple balance sheets. this is a remarkable week. it says, i think, the fed is on hold after one hike. europe is energized, whether you like it or not from what's happening. we're divorced from the fundamentals in china. that's not taking us down. no inflation to speak of. this market is on fire. i don't think -- bounced from oversold a couple weeks ago. it's catching people by surprise. we're seeing year-end buying already by big hedge funds. even valeant was up huge yesterday. >> yeah. true. there are still some people who have macro concerns about overvaluation and the idea of the fed finally raising rates and what will be the impact, jim. not to mention the stronger dollar. there are no shortage of concerns on a macro basis. >> we're being led by ten strong names and 490 weak names. >> i think it's starting to
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broaden. i was looking at some drug stocks. eli lilly, remember when it fell to 77. my trust said go buy. the stock at 84. you know, nike was good. nike now is excelling. look at the chevrons, the exxons. they stopped going down despite oil touching 40. the airline stocks started to get better. cruise stocks, the biggest users of the -- the big shipping stocks, carnival. >> yeah. >> starting to come back. remarkable week for housing. the housing stocks are coming back. the rail subject to takeover bids. just a remarkable moment. it was supposed to be a bad week. >> it hasn't been. >> was what a week. >> crude hovering above that $40 level. that said, i should point out when it comes to energy and high yield, which, of course, energy is a smaller percentage of given how much value they have lost,
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spreads at the highs. >> the eia came out -- >> not even talking energy. just in general. >> the natural gas storage report is at an all-time high. 4 trillion cubic feet what does that mean for chesapeake? their preferreds were down more than the common stock. >> we should mention on alternative energy, sunedison, big hedge fund name. down again. a lot of things up, this is down. jpmorgan said we had a $19 price target. now we're going to 5.50. 5.50 is still a double from here. they see the stock going up 100%. they head to the sidelines because the situation is complication, fluid and risky. they're deeply disappointed they did not do so ahead of the death spiral, as they put it. >> it could be too early to buy sunedison. >> could be. could be. >> let's get to the bond pits.
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rick santelli is in chicago. >> good morning, carl. you know anybody with a 401(k) is enamored, but in the end we are close town changed on the dow. 2% handle on the s&ps after this week. very close to unchanged. unchanged. the fixed income markets, yields are higher than they settled last year. mostly -- most aggressively in the short end. that's the tone of what i'll talk about. it's all about flattening. so, at this point in time, treasury markets seems brave. tightening will happen. equities digesting it. a lot of variables outside of the fed. yields look a certain way today, benchmarked against yesterday, you get a better flavor. if you go back to 2010, the last time spreads were this flat, you can see that. you go an extra three years,
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before the crisis, it's amazing the different look to the chart. why? maybe left sides we'll see the structures of making this much less flat in terms of two-year note yields. if we look at the curves themselves, the combination that is the most aggressive is anything that hooks fives and 30s. you look at tens to twos, yes, flattening. look at the way it is flattening based on the last couple of months. if you look at tens to fives more aggressive, 30s to fives more aggressive, yields were moving aggressively up. 30s have been fighting it. maybe that's where all the investors are looking for whatever yield they think they want to grab before december fed meeting. when it comes to trying to compare mario draghi and what's going on with our fed, of course that's like a spread as well. one is tightening. one is easing. there is a recalibration of tens minus bunds. you can clearly see it as we get
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comfortable in the 170s. one year of euro versus the dollar. one thing people on this floor see, 1.05. big level, 1.05. carl, back to you. >> all right. a day after that strong wall street debut for square, we'll talk to one of the company's investors about the road ahead for the payments firm as the stock adds another 3%. the s&p is officially on track for the best week of the year. this guy from engineering says directv is so advanced that you could put tvs anywhere without looking at cable wires and boxes in every room. how are they always one step ahead of us? well, because their technology is far superior. or because they have someone on the inside. is that right, gil? sir, i would never... he's with them! he's wearing a wire. take off his shirt! take off his shirt! oh! ah!
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accelerating next. hewlett packard enterprise. it's ban been a difficult month for retail. today some are up 20%. we'll talk about what this means for black friday with jim in a moment. announcer: if you'd give thanks for a better night's sleep...
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time for cramer and stop trading. >> we talk about retail and how great it is. two not good, one is mentor graphics. and is an md drug, biomarin. they got the word from the fda their drug may not be consistent
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and ineffective. i bring two downers in. just want to point out everything is not as rosie as i'm saying. we have a lot of techs like intel and microsoft strong. major drug stocks have come back. industrials are hanging in there led by ge. housing stocks being incredibly strong. it really is a time when people are saying rates will stay low. they're not going to go up a lot. and that makes it rosy. i think that if you wanted to say what one company put everything into perspective, go to the home depot conference call. it said we have household information coming back, renovation for homes that have been delayed. those are two secular themes. that bubbled up along with cheaper apparel to make it so everybody came in rosie. kimberly clarks, consumer products do well. we won't have a rate rise fast that group has done terrifically. this is a much broader wally than where we were.
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the whole notion that it was about fang, it's not about fang anymore. >> not about fang? >> not about fang. that's soupy sales. it's not about fang. the "a" may be allergan. >> the g may be general mills. >> what is the "f." >> foot locker. >> oh! thank you very much. yes. thank you. >> jim, what's on "mad tonight?" >> we'll reveal the hottest sector and the players in it. the hottest sector is the drink sector. >> really? >> yes. of which you have talked about many times because of the consolidation, david. >> that's true. >> just taking david and just doing everything he says because we're tired of those, oh, is that so? how come my wife has heard about that. >> she has? >> she said i hear david has a lot of --
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>> quizzical looks. >> that's what i'm here for. >> my father used to say, he's mad at you. carl isn't, but he's mad at you. >> not mad at all. >> not mad. >> never ever. >> we'll see you tonight. have a good weekend. "mad money" at 6:00 p.m. when we come back, the latest on this hostage situation in mali and the paris terror attacks. ♪
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good friday morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen, simon hobbs, and dave dave at post nine. best week of the year for the s&p as we are within a stone's throw of 2100. got reassuring news on the retail front. a broader based rally than we've seen lately with the s&p back to 2095. >> here's our road map. stocks on the rise today. dow up triple digits. are there more gains to come? >> nike making some dig moves,
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upping its dividend to $12 billion stock buyback and a two for one stock split. >> yesterday's big ipo, square and match, both moving solidly higher. but four ipos pulled today just as we head into the weekend. what does that mean for the market? >> the french prime minister just raised the death toll from friday's attacks in paris as french troops fight against a terrorist attack in one of that's former colonies, mali n west africa. michelle caruso-cabrera has the latest. >> reporter: simon, the death toll from friday's attacks now stands at 130. that's according to the french prime minister who is making a speech on the floor of the senate this morning. he's there because the senate later today is going to vote on whether or not to extend the state of emergency from 12 days to three months. it's widely expected that is
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what will happen. there's going to be very little pushback against that. let's bring you up to date on mali. there's a close relationship between mali and france. it's a former french colony and they had troops there since 2013, france has. now a u.s. defense official is telling reuters, six u.s. seasons have been recovered from that radisson hotel. the u.s. state department says there may still be u.s. citizens at that hotel. we have gotten a statement from the ownership group of that hote hotel, they say 124 guests, 13 staff are still inside. this is some eight hours after the gunmen stormed the hotel. it's unclear just how many gunmen at this point. we understand they initially took 170 hostages. at least three are dead. there were two airline crews in that hotel, turkish airlines and
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air france. air france confirming their employees are safe. they also suspended service to that city. there is some ambiguity of the turkish airline crews. there was a statement earlier that all of them were safe, but now it appears two may still be in the hotel. it's one week ago today that the terrorist attack occurred in paris on friday night. we're here at the plaza which has become the central place of mourning. this is close to many of the locations where people have died. tonight there's a movement for everyone to stand up at the same time and make light in some way. that's because as a result of the state of emergency, people are not allowed to gather in large groups for fear of possible terrorist attacks. as a result, that's the way they're trying to get around that situation at the moment. guys, back to you. >> michelle, thank you for that. michelle caruso-cabrera in paris
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for us once again. for more on this, let's bring in former u.s. ambassador to syria, ted katouf. good to have you. >> pleasure. >> michelle said it well, what a horrific week it's been. with the mali news today, is that fallout directly from what happened in paris? >> these groups metastasize. they spread. we saw the shootdown of the -- the bombing of the russian plane in sinai. now we see a third country's hotel attack. it kills tourism and the economy. these groups are out to win as many converts as possible and to make life as miserable for governments not of their ilk. >> is it one area getting attention and other areas trying to get the attention. >> you're very much correct.
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al qaeda has been eclipsed by isis. al qaeda is not what is used to be. we did manage to degrade it in pakistan and elsewhere. somalia and even in yemen, many elements that used to belong to al qaeda is going over to isis. >> can i point out that mali, we assume, is an al qaeda country because in 2013 the french troops put down and al qaeda group there. so, paris attacks were isis, this is al qaeda. significant for many people. >> very good point. the french pushed them back but didn't eliminate them. those borders are pretty ungovernable in those parts of africa. they find refuge across the border and come back in. >> i want to ask about your expertise working with the united states and syria the u.s., france and russia stepped
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up their fight against isis in syria this week. is it enough? the center of the president's strategy is special operations forces on the ground. is that going to eliminate isis? >> what we're doing now in the short run is not going to eliminate isis. that's clear to everyone. this is more than a military problem. this is a battle for the soul of islam, if you will. if the united states and france and russia, the crusader powers, are seen as leading the charge against isis, in many ways that can help isis with its recruitment and gather sympathy that indeed this is a war on muslims. i think the president is quite correct to try a multi-faceted approach. try to push muslim states and muslim organizations that oppose isis to do more. not do less as saudi arabia and the uae are doing. we had that in the beginning,
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but they're peeling off to yemen. it looked like prior to the paris attack s virtually an american war in syria, then the russians came in, correct. >> correct. >> let me ask you next week when francois hollande comes here. he meets obama and then goes to russia. the discussion seems to be whether he forms some alliance with bashir assad. do you think it's appropriate in order to gain some sort of alliance with the russians that he does a u-turn in that? he kind of almost implies that he could retain power in the country if only so he can monitor the terrorists that are moving through? if he does that, that's a huge double standard for many people. a double standard that arguably makes people radicalize in the first place. >> that's right. we cannot back bashar al assad. he has too much blood on his
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hands. he comes from a minority sect of islam that many sunnis see as heredical. he has been dropping barrel bombs, torturing in his prisons and president obama will not be able to join with russia because of assad. >> so there's not a united front in syria then. >> there is no united strategy. it's not a terrible thing if russia is bombing isis, we're bombing isis and keeping each other aware of when we're doing it. >> you're talking about a graduation in intelligence sharing, right? that will be key to whatever happens next. >> whatever happens next we have to cooperate more on intelligence sharing, giving more support to the kurds in the north who are effectively fighting isis, more special forces on the ground.
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all of those things go into it. i think it's a mistake for the united states to start thinking about putting tens of thousands of troops back in the middle east. >> on the refugee debate that's raging in this country and certainly even more so in europe, obviously it is important. i guess the problem i have with it, is there enough being done in syria to make syria safer for the syrians so that this problem doesn't get worse? >> it's hard to know what you could do to make syria safer for the syrians. what we have, we don't have united opposition. we have two terrorist organizations that are powerful on the ground. isis and a branch of al qaeda. then you have another three or four major groups of islamist fighters, jihadis, and then the splintered so-called free syrian army. the question we have to ask ourselves ourselves, if we push assad out prematurely, if we could, who would take over? i don't think it would be any
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good guys. >> mr. ambassador, thank you very much. keeping an eye on the markets. the dow is up 146 points. the s&p 500 is on track for its best week of 2015. today's rally also lifting the dow into positive territory for the year. will the gains continue into the next few weeks and into the med meeting? "squawk on the street" will be right back. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in.
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so the dow up 158 points and counting as we stand. an important week which has already seen the s&p rise over 3.5%, bouncing from last week's oversold conditions. so cutting losses despite the aftermath of the terror attacks in paris, the hostage taking in mali and members of the fed doing all they can do to cement the idea that they will raise interest rates in three weeks time. welcome to you both. ben, what's your view of the markets here. is it changing? >> i think the market theme is the fed. the minutes from the october meeting prove convincingly that they're going to lift off in
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december. proof positive for me was the fact that the debate has shifted from the starting point to the path and the trajectory of the rates. and, you know, as far as the upshot for equities, i would expect them to be mild. is this going to be a surprise for markets? arguably not, given that even fixed income markets which have been the most skeptical of the skeptics have finally come away. the two-year note up 30 basis points in the last month and fed funds futures pricing at 70%. the surprise factor is limited here. >> i don't want to put words in your mouth, are we saying now it's steady as we go through that interest rate rise december 16th? this is not calm before the storm. that's not the indication that we have. >> i think so. that's backed up by a fairly robust economic picture for the u.s. what the main risk to the u.s. outlook going into 2016 is not a recessionary scenario, a midline
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growth scenario. some combination of external shots, a mild sentiment in the u.s. causes growth to be more in the ones than the twos. from the perspective of a multi asset investor you want to hedge against that downside risk. we've moved into high yield as well, which tends to do well in low-growth. the general picture is we want exposure to the u.s. growth story going into next year. >> neil, it's extraordinary how the fed has been able to get its act together in terms of the messaging to the market. we were all over the place, say, six weeks ago. now expectations have changed. everybody seems relatively united. is the data broadly irrelevant here going into 2016? i'm thinking particularly of
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non-farm payrolls. the bar seems high now to not raise. >> simon, i think that's right. the fed effectively communicated things have to get better to things don't have to get any worse. i think the bar is very high for the fed to not raise rates this year. i think the bigger risk is as we get into 2016, we're going to have the unemployment rate in the u.s. below 5%. and headline inflation will be close to 2%. typically in the front end of these tightening cycles you get the market priced for one and done, two and done scenarios. i think the fed will go three times next year, if not four. that's what they mean by gradual. with wages rising, service sector inflation in the u.s. has been picking up. most of the rages is in goods inflation, not as sticky. underlying inflation dynamics
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are moving in a direction that will pressure the fed to a more aggressive path. >> complicating this whole fed decision and the market reaction, ben, is the fact that the ecb, the european central bank is leaning in the opposite direction with mario draghi comicom coming out saying we will do what we need to do. what does that mean to the u.s. economy and the stock market? does that help to have that liquidity boost from europe. >> i teexternal factors, includ the u.s. dollar and growth, so whereas you have the dollar which has been a moderate drag on growth, better european data is a bit of a tailwind, you see those offsetting into 2016.
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>> neil, the trajectory of interest rates, which you both say is the main focus point. i think you said four rate rises next year? 1%? is that what you're saying? >> yeah. i think a good baseline is a year-end forecast of around 1.375. you have to remember that we're talking about ranges. but going back to sara's question on the ecb, it's important to point out that over the last year, every time the ecb made some sort of announcement, whether it was qe, the expectation of more qe, mario draghi sounding tough with respect to getting inflation back up to target, look how equities have responded. we've been rallying. the idea that this is a zero sum game is belied by the financial conditions which ease every time -- >> the problem with that position is the u.s. dollar. we have not seen this kind of -- >> that assumes -- >> since back in 1994.
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that was the german central bank, because there wasn't a euro. why are you not more afraid of the dollar? look what it's done to corporate america, the trade and our economy. >> you go down the street and you tell someone the dollar is going up, oil prices are falling. that boosts confidence. down at the fed you get inflation expectations. we've been talking about the dollar for some time and we just established the fact that services inflation is accelerating in the united states. services inflation is two-thirds of the consumer price basket. so, again, look at just currency assumes that's the only transmission mechanism of policy -- >> no, it's just the fast test. >> equity markets are rallying. you told me the dow is up triple digits after draghi's announcement. the dow is one part, equities another, corporate credit is
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another. you have to look at this. it's important not to reason from a price change. the dollar is going up also because the u.s. economy is getting stronger. >> hey, it's a nice upbeat note from both of you to leave it for the weekend. thank you. when we come back, security levels heightened around the world after last week's attacks in paris. wheel look at what businesses and individuals can do to protect themselves. not only is it the best year for the s&p, best week of the year for the s&p, dow is on the cusp of the boast weest week in four.
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. welcome back to "squawk on the street." shares of workday under pressure, down by 3%. the human resources softwaremaker posted a bigger than expected lost and offered weak current guidance forecasts.
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the earnings report, sarah, taking a bit of steam away from workday today. >> stock down almost 3%. thank you. security is on everyone's minds in the wake of recent terrorist attacks. eamon javers is looking live at how businesses and individuals can protect themselves. eamon? >> hi, sara. the key to this is stopping terror plots early on in the process. they say al qaeda and isis terrorists have often done detailed planning before they strike that offers businesses and individuals an opportunity to spot the planning in process and interrupt the process of planning for a terrorist attack. couple things to watch for. surveillance. oftentimes terrorists will surveil the site. watch for anybody taking pictures after your premises, including doors, security devices. often information gathering. they'll arrive at the site and ask questions about shift
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changes who is on site at a given time. also opportunities to test the security. frequently you'll see an instance where they'll pull a false alarm and see how quickly security or the police can respond and time that gap so the terrorists know what their opportunity is. finally they talk about funding. look for large cash purchases, anything that could be an indicator that the terrorists are using money movements in order to plan for an attack and buying equipment. guys, a lot to watch here for businesses. ultimately it is a very scary scenario here, but there are ways to pay attention to surroundings and watch plots as they develop. as always, if you see something, say something. >> okay. thank you very much. straight ahead, nike the best performer in the dow this year upping its dividend and announcing a two for one stock split. and other bill retail movers today, a week away from black
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friday. how do you play the sector? we'll be right back.
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good morning, i'm sue herera, here is your cnbc news update. an african jihadist group affiliated with al qaeda claiming responsibility for an attack on the radisson blu hotel
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in mali. at least three people are dead. there are still more than 100 people inside that hotel. president obama in malaysia for the southeastern nations summit monitoring the situation in mali. he held a town hall meeting in call kuala lumpur. >> jonathan pollard has been released from jail after being accused of spying for israel. and a daring river rescue captured on tape as a racing kayaker falls out of his boat while floating down a rushing rapid. a volunteer rescuer jumped in and grabbed ahold of him. amazing stuff. that's the cnbc news update. back to you.
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>> that was amazing footage. >> very brave. >> retail gains are lifting the market. nike leading the dow after announcing last night a $12 billion stock buyback, two for one spot split. gap shares are also on the rise. abercrombie & fitch is up 20%, and foot locker is up. big moves. joining us to talk about it is oliver chen and matthew bass. matt, i'll talk with you. you cover nike stock. nike stock has been on a tear. it's up 40% so far this year. best performer in the dow. is it peak positivity? everyone seems to like this stock. 84% of analysts that cover it have a guy. is all the news baked in? >> so the sentiment has turned, i do not think the stock has peaked. we upgraded this one about two years back. stock in the mid 50s.
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multiple in an entirely different place. the sentiment was more bearish. where could nike go? there was concern about china at the time. they stabilized china. what is driving demand across apparel is innovation. innovation is driving traffic. that's what you're seeing in the athletic trend. i don't think the athletic trend is a cycle. it's tied to health and wellness. we think health and wellness is still in the early innings, as technology could be a new lek to the entire cycle. >> one potential near-term head wind, the stock has been under pressure in recent weeks, was the idea that macy's, nordstrom issued cautious holiday guidance. these stores do sell nike products. doesn't sound like you're worried about lack of holiday traffic. >> it's a good report. if you sift through the report.
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kohl's cited sales of nike product were up 30% in the same quarter where stores reported lackluster results. so what's driving the demand, what's driving the shelf space is the brands that create their own traffic. there's a lack of fashion across coral apparel, in athletic you have this health and wellness trend, that is where the consumers are going. that's what the consumers are following. >> enter oliver chen. athleisure is a bright spot. you have lululemon. >> yes. >> there's constant chatter on this stock that it's a possible takeover candidate, whether it's under armour or nike. is there any merit to those rumors? >> it's one of the best brands in the product category. it could be global. potential acquirers can offer
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supply chain, but lululemon is one of our favorite ideas in the space. >> themes for the season, which has already begun, black friday a week away. cheap gas. cheap apparel what else? >> i would say bricks plus clicks. people getting access to deals on their phones. the use of mobile. and the shopping season should be a bit easier. in-stock levels at names like walmart and others will be higher. so >> matt, sara asked you about athleisure. mike santelli asked remember when dockers and chambray suits were supposed to put macy's out of business. that didn't last. why should athleisure last? >> we don't think it will put the business suit or the core denim out of business by any means. but what you have is more awareness of health and wellness. like i was saying before, technology is another leg of
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this. people are more aware of their health, more aware of statistics. that's going to create more demand towards some of the more specialized side of it, whether it's pilates, running versus basketball. and i do think you do have more of a mobile work force, which is contributing to it as well. you know, the call here is not that it puts core apparel out of business. it can be a continued shift towards this lifestyle inflection. >> i would add versatility is a key point for the consumer. it's a lot about lots of different types of dress and athleticism plays aro role in that. >> why would you wear jeans when you can wear leggings. >> they are versatile. >> i want to ask about abercrombie & fitch. they did better than expectations, but store sales are still negative. is it too early to say this one is out of the woods? it's above your price target
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now. >> it was much better than feared. short interest was high, above 30% versus 10% of our sector. it's a little bit early. but we like to see stocks in the green. i'm encouraged that things were better than feared. >> does it point to a broader conversation about this huge franchise that it is getting difficult on whether there's value in them? because there are large franchises that can restock over two, three years. many people will look at other parts of the retail sector and say should i hold on to that? >> i think retail will continue to have this drama in terms of ideas that are fully sat raurat versus the next area of growth. that's why lulu is attractive. apparel is a deflationary environment, it's difficult to get pricing.
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you can get jeans for $6. >> matt, one week until black friday. what's your holiday shopping retail pick? i think you want to be associated with value and brands. the off-price sector has it. we spent the last couple days with tjx. i think the off-price sector is benefitting from a lot of this dislocation taking place at the department stores. they're pickinging up brands they have not seen before. tjx has a global model where they're picking up brands in europe, canada, the u.s. that's what the consumer wants. they want a good deal, top-deal brands and athletics. our two are athletics. >> and you. >> i like cigna. they have a good progr-- i like. they have good holiday sales. they have a lot of varietial,
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great brands, everybody loves diamond. you have to be worry about higher ends because of the paris tragedies and market volatilities. people are looking at their 401(k)s. good discussion, thank you very much. oliver chen and matthew boss. thanks. >> still ahead, a huge week for ipos with square and match what are the implications now as we head into the weekend? an early square investor will join "squawk alley" to talk about that. we'll be back after this break.
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welcome back to "squawk on the street." watching the dow up about 150 points. s&p is up by 13. healthcare leading all s&p 500 sectors. higher up by 1%. powering the gains, names like aetna, allergan, humana up by 2% and 4% in early trading. healthcare is the third best performing sector up by about 4%. but it's worth noting, simon, the etf that tracks the healthcare sector, that's up about 8%, 9% just since the end of september. back over to you. >> thank you very much. let's send it to chicago and rick santelli's exchange this morning. >> good morning, simon. i'd like to welcome my guest, peter bookfare. thanks for being the friday guest. we'll wrap up the week. i like some of your recent writings where you underscore, as i've been discussing for quite awhile, the curve is finally flattening. it's flattening on all cylinders. it is not only twos, threes, the
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aggressive movement of yields up in the fives. it's the lazy long end of the curve. is this an acknowledgment of the fed and a rise in equities? is that a rubber stamp? the fed is raising rates, the economy is economy is great, everything is terrific. >> the stock market is. the treasury market is cognizant that the fed is raising interest rates at a time when economic growth is no better than 2%. manufacturing you could argue is in recession. and the fed has never raised rates with an ism of 50. capital spending is soft. because they are waiting so long, the frlattening yield cure is sniffing out this may not go so smoothly. >> when it comes to the most recent jobs report that in many
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ways did change everything. if viewers and listeners don't agree with that, look at the 6th and the way markets were trading the before, the day of, the week after, you can see it many out there dig deep and say if this was such a great jobs report, why are the bulk of jobs 55 and over and the loss of jobs 25 to 54, they reference table a9. your thoughts? >> it points to a participation rate near 62% and 92 million americmillions of americans not working. all the last payroll number did was put us back on track of nearly 200,000 monthly job gain which is fine, but well below last year. >> let's play this -- why do we pay attention at all or so much
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attention to jobs? it seems like a dumb, rhetorical question. but in the end, the linkage is between jobs and a paycheck, is it not? is that not why we pay so much attention? >> of course, especially when the consumer is 70% of the company. we want to see these people are employed. >> sticking with our previous observation, if 55 and older are getting a larger chunk of jobs and historics, you know, traditional demographics would dictate, would take a guess, do you think the jobs are the high-paying jobs? 55 and older what types of jobs do you think we're talking? >> 55 and older, they've been working for a while. i would hope they're getting higher paying jobs than a 25-year-old or a 35-year-old that is just relatively new within the work force. there should be a wage skew with older workers. >> all right. that's something to factor in. we're out of time. thank you, peter, for taking the
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time today. we will continue to monitor the relationship between the flattening curve, the fed, and the recent rally in equities. simon hobbs, back to you. >> thank you very much, rick. let's not forget it's been a big week for ipos. square and matchmaking their debuts today. not without some controversy. bob pisani has more on that. >> it's been a tough week. it happened again overnight. we were pricing three ipos, two didn't make it. we did price duluth holdings, the maker of buck naked underwear, outdoor apparel. that price $12. the price point was $14 to $18. truck hero which makes accessories for trucks, postponed. noble mid stream, master limited partnership from noble energy,
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postponed. they couldn't price point. look at what happened yesterday, the ipos for the week. square priced at $9. the price tack was $11 to $13. that's trading up again today after a good day yesterday. match group priced at $12. price talk was $12 to $14. that's the low end. it, too, up 25%. mimecast which did not get a lot of discussion, a security firm, that priced at $10. that is trading up modestly. we have nice pops in the two major ipos, match and square. there was a sigh of relief when that opened at $11.20 yesterday if it would have opened at $8, you would have seen a lot of hand wringing and cranes stopping over in silicon valley because this was the big unicorn that people were watching. it is a canary in the coal mine for other firms out there who might be wanting to go public in 2016. sara, the only thing at this point that i think might be a motivating factor to get more
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ipos out -- there's nothing on the calendar now. nothing will happen next week. we have essentially 2 1/2 weeks left. the only motivating factor is year-end bonuses for bankers. i know that's cynical. if they can go out to clients who are sitting there and haven't priced, don't want to, saying you have to lower the price, 20% to 25%, that's getting things done, maybe you'll see more action in the next couple weeks. i think it will be a pretty tough sell. sara? >> interesting theory. b we have some breaking news now. we want to go to our headquarters. sue herera with that. >> thank you very much. as you know there was that ongoing terrorist incident in mali in the capital city of mali. right now an official in mali is telling bfm television that there are no more hostages being held at that hotel. the radisson blu in the capital city of mali. there are also reports that cite u.s. military personnel
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assisting outside that hotel as saying that six u.s. citizens have been rescued so far in mali. but that has not been confirmed by nbc news. that's officials citing u.s. military personnel. so that would be six u.s. citizens rescued and this official in mali tells bfm there are no more hostages being held at the radisson blu in the capital city of mali. sara, back to you. keel ke we'll keep you posted. up next, despite the bird flu scare last summer there has not been a turkey shortage this year as all. how did american farmers beat the odds? jim stewart of the "new york times" all over the turkey story after the break.
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>> just months after the worst ever outbreak of avian influenza wiped out millions of turkeys, you don't have to fear price shock. according to the usda the average price of frozen turkeys has dropped 18 cents in the past week. now 90 cents per pound. fresh turkeys, selling at $1.54 per pound, both roughly the same
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price as last year. our next guest says that is proof that the american turkey farmer took on mother nature and won. "new york times" columnist jim stewart. we love you, jim, from white collar crime to monetary policy to turkeys. this is a serious issue for u.s. farmers. >> it is serious, and it's particularly timely with thanksgiving coming up next week. i think it's an amazing tribute to the american farm economy and how flexible and resilient it is in the face of sdagser like this. avian flu hit. they ended up killing off, like, 48 million birds in the midwest. 7.5 million turkeys. naturally the media went wild saying, oh, there's going to be a turk a shortage, prices are going to soar. guess what, it didn't happen. i was exploring that this week, and discovered that among other things, we've got a lot of hard-working farmers out there. they plunged in. they cleaned this thing up. i don't want to go into the details.
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they got back on-line. they're producing turkeys again. naturally, the people who weren't affected by it, stepped up production. the price of turkey did go up for a while, and farmers responded by, a, growing more, b, growing them bigger, and, guess what, the supply came right back to what it was before. >> just to highlight, as they realize in the summer the height of the summer that there was a problem, there's this mass -- there is a very quick decision to cull quickly and then reorder and to a certain extent manufacture the turkeys that came through as young birds as 1-year-old birds, as you point out in the article then, are still not quite old enough to be sold this thanksgiving. >> that's correct. the ones that have been repopulated since the flu outbreak are pretty much going to be coming on-line first week in december, second week in december. you might get some of the fresh ones for christmas, but what's happened is the anticipation of the new supply has already driven down, as you would expect. it's already driven down the
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price of the existing supply. many turkeys were killed and flash frozen before the thing broke out, and then, as i said, other producers who weren't affected, it's not that hard to add some turkeys to the population. >> what about the role of the big supermarkets, the big buyers like wal-mart? what did they do when they saw the crisis coming? >> i talked to people at wal-mart. wal-mart, i have to hand it to them, they have got some amazingly low prices out there for not only turkey, but other thanksgiving-related items. >> they have a promotion, right? >> wal-mart exists that it's not a special promotion. they just have this everyday low pricing strategy. i think they are very sensitive on the turkey front. they say they have more turkeys for sale this year than ever before. they're offering a frozen 16 pound butterball turkey for 64 cents a pound. you can see that's below, well below, the retail price quoted by the usda. >> i was surprised read your piece, jim, because there was a big report out of the farm
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bureau that tal tallies the price together of a thanksgiving meal, including a turkey and all the trimmings and dessert, and it went above $50 for the first time ever. a 70 cent increase from last year. >> the problem for the farm bureau, it's a moving target. they were out shopping and doing their survey several weeks ago, which was too early. that's when the tshgy prices were still elevated. they've really dropped significantly in the last few weeks. mainly because the supply chain is back in business. the new birds are going to start coming on-line and anticipation of them we've seen a big drop. >> how many do they feed for $50? >> ten. by the way, wal-mart told me you can replicate that menu at wal-mart for $34. let's just think about that for a minute. that means a group of ten could eat a turkey dinner with all the trimmings for $3.40 a person. >> yes. >> now, i think we have to step back and say for all the
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subsidies and complaints about american coast guard all tour, they are delivering a good product. can you trace their lynnage, according to this one website, back to jamestown. the birds there. those things are going on set you back s will set you back $200 a bird. >> at least you will know who the grandfather was. >> we'll leave it there. heading into the weekend, let's kick it over to john for a look at what's coming up on "squawk alley." >> we'll continue to follow the latest out of mali. also ipos in the wake of square and match. what's the outlook for others who are hoping the window is not
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we're an hour and a half into trading. with us as always john fort and kayla on this friday after an eventful week. of course, all around the globe. we're going to start with the latest today in mali. at least three are dead after gunmen took 170 people hostage at a holtz in mali's capital. there are reports coming in now that there are no more hostages at that hotel. michelle caruso cabrera is live with the latest. michelle, what do we know? >> six americans were evacuated from that hotel as well, and the u.s. embassy has sent out a statement urging all americans in mali to shelter in place at this point. a gunman initially took 170 hostages when the siege began. there was about nine hours ago. it's unclear just how many gunmen there were. the associated press, as you said, is now reporting that at least three of those hostages are dead. there have been french troops in mali since 2013 because france went in to help them rout islamic extremists who had taken over the northern part of t

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