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tv   Squawk Alley  CNBC  November 25, 2015 11:00am-12:01pm EST

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good morning. it's 8:00 a.m. at hp headquarters in palo alto, california. it's 11:00 a.m. on wall street. and "squawk alley" is live. ♪ ♪ welcome to "squawk alley" for a wednesday morning ahead of thanksgiving. with us as always jon fortt and kayla tausche. let's bring in jessica lesson as well. a cnbc contributor. good morning. good to see you. lots to talk about. we'll start with hp. big story of the day.
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hewlett-packard enterprises and hp moving in different directions this morning. pc sales and printer sales down on the year. here's meg whitman this morning on "squawk on the street." >> i think the turnaround is working in enterprise services and the investors are starting to see that. and it's taken a little longer at enterprise group because that's a long lead time business. these are long-term contracts. the people we are talking to today we may not ink a deal for a year. so it's a little bit slower to turn that business around, but we're feeling pretty good about where enterprise services is. >> interesting to watch the two stocks. >> i don't know that we can read too much into these results. both businesses have serious challenges. we talked about hp enterprise, how it's not exactly number one in any of its categories. then you've got hp inc.
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they had inventory issues, built up inventory ahead of the split. windows 10 if it's going to have an impact during the season, that hasn't kicked in yet for them. it kicked in for microsoft. but not hp inc. then you've got printing. i hardly print anything anymore unless i'm at work. i can get it on my mobile device. i don't have to print it. they've got issues where they got to take the cash from businesses and invest it in something else. and they don't seem to have shown what that is yet. >> printing seems to be problematic because it is the lion's share of the profits. that could stabilize in mid-2017 but the secular pattern, you would think, won't reverse itself. >> absolutely. we've been hearing chatter that the printing business is really a prime target for some sort of takeout. i mean, nothing specific, but lots of scuttlebutt that that shouldn't really be an independent business. but, you know, the free cash flow, not great. below expectations with what
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they announce so it looks problematic all around. >> meantime, comments on the dollar, if you're looking for relief there's a pressure that's not going to happen. at least in her view. >> and there's always some new way that currencies hurt the printing business. this time it was that people are buying consumers in essence are buying higher end printers that are meant for business and then aren't buying the supplies. so that's hurting the business. it's a tough one to figure out. because whether it's competition from the japanese on the one end that hurts them, when the yen fluctuates to now this, there's always an excuse for printing. >> and cost is a huge focus even still for these companies. another 25,000 to 30,000 cut from head count. should that have happened earlier? why is that happening now? >> interesting question. i think, you know, these companies are going through transformations. the split was the first step.
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there's more to come. >> they've just been cutting and cutting and cutting. >> it's hard to believe there is more to cut after that has been the ethos of this company under meg wittman for years. >> you hate to use a term death spiral. but they were strong in one particular area, that matures. there isn't growth in it anymore, they're cutting trying to invest in something else, and you wonder can they get out of that cycle? get the pain over with and move on. yahoo is starting to get to that space too. >> her hope is the replacement rate of some old pcs will eventually come around. but that tool is not completely -- >> it's a good hope. and the split -- the yahoo analogy is a good one also sort of trying to split up as well. trying to solve problems with a maneuver that may just, you know, not really solve the underlying issues. >> the question is whether those 450 million or so pcs get replaced with pcs. they might get replaced with something else. >> that's what tim cook thinks
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about that. couple of tips for black friday. the top selling toys this year expected to be things like lego, "star wars," barbie. numbers suggest we could see the strongest holiday growth since the financial crisis. but things are looking bleaker for televisions. cord cutting now hurting tv saelz down 3% this year. although sales bigger than 50 inches are up 10%. the thought is you don't need a second tv for the house if you're just going to watch on your ipad in bed. >> absolutely. and just beyond the screens getting smaller, we may be headed for a no screen christmas here. i think the internet of things connect at home is actually going to be a hot category. so, you know, completely sort of different electronics area, but the amazon echo. hearing a lot of buzz. totally different tier of product. but screens aren't as sexy as they used to be. >> i'll take the other side of
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that though. baker also says tv sales this holiday season are going to be the best in years up single digits because people want bigger tvs. if you're not going to watch your small screen, you want something huge. the prices come down faster than expected so there is that. >> also saying that as you mentioned strongest toy growth since the financial crisis. here we thought we were going to shift away from toys and toward gadgets that kids wanted. ipods and small electronics. instead of the figurines. >> maybe they'll merge at some point. we'll tech-i-fy the toys. >> i'm impressed with barbie. barbie's back. >> i didn't know she was ever down. >> "frozen" displaced her last year. but that's unwinding quickly as disney tries to re-up that franchise. but you're right about traditional toys. hot wheels is huge overseas. and lego is going to see shortages in europe.
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>> interesting that goldman thinks that "star wars" for boys will come second to lego. who thought that would happen? >> unless it's a lego "star wars." >> that's exactly what i'm talking about. >> finally, adele's new hit "25" available for streaming on pandora. not available on any other services like spotify or apple music. matt lauer asked adele about keeping the album off those streaming sites today. take a listen. >> you're one of the few people on the planet who can say i may not stream some sojs. >> yeah. >> you've chosen to put "hello" out there. not the other music. might you make a decision in the near future to stream some of that music? >> probably. i'm just doing what i've always done. and "hello" is on there because it's on radio. probably, yeah. >> "25" has already sold more than 2 million copies breaking the single-week record for album sales. i saw she accounted for 40% of
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all recorded music sales last week. >> taylor who? >> exactly. taylor who? >> you just love adele. there's no evidence this is 2015 and the music business is having an existential crisis. "hello" is like a commercial for the rest of the album. that video more than six minutes long, getting such views. she is rewriting, i think, the rules of the music business. everybody can't follow it exactly the way she has, but we're getting windowing now. and i think artists are probably deciding, well, am i going to make my big money, my profits in live shows? am i that kind of artist? or am i more like an enya that doesn't it a different way? >> and she's changing hasn'ts. i bought two albums in probably the past five years. "1989" and "25." >> i'm right there with you. >> you know, i'm back in that paying for downloaded music.
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who knows what will be next. >> according to one stat i saw, 900,000 itunes downloads of the album just last week. so certainly a boom for apple too. what is it about pandora? taylor swift stayed on pandora even when she pulled music off spotify. do they just pay artists more? >> they have a different licenses structure. they're under compulsory licenses. they payouts are different and it's more of a uniform license. so artists, they're not going artist by artist. i think the time will tell how long that stands too. with adele and others making this stand, they're going to try different platforms and different strategies. >> and part of what they love about pandora is you never know which song is coming next. yes, adele's album is on there, but you can't listen to the whole thing on command. so it's not competing with the album. if you want to hear the album beginning to end, you have to buy it. >> maybe the hibernating for
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four years helped in her favor. >> true. it'll be interesting to see an artist not like adele trying to replicate this. >> and by her own admission she might be back on the services too. so there's posturing going on. >> chaka khan, waiting for your album. >> pandora as you saw getting a nice pop on that move. 5% after having a miserable couple of months. good to see you as always. thanks for joining us today. >> thanks, carl. meantime, one of the busiest travel days of the year with airlines handling more than a thousand flights. our phil lebeau is in chicago with more. hey, phil. >> hey, carl. you can see from the map over my shoulder that we are in the midst of the big pre-thanksgiving rush of flights. about 4700 will be handled by united airlines here in the united states today. a number of those flights going overseas. when you look at the total number of people who are flying, we are looking at the busiest
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thanksgiving holiday travel season since 2006-2007. up about 3% compared to last year. i mentioned some of the flights going overseas. about 10% of the people who are traveling for this holiday are going overseas. so far good news is when you look at airports around the country, yes, we've seen some lines but no major delays. >> you're going to notice there's going to be a backup in the line. but for me, it's priceless. peace of mind is priceless. >> you need a little extra patience if you're flying to one of these five airports. these are the five busiest airports in the country for thanksgiving travel. atlanta, no surprise. number one. then you have l.a., o'hare, dallas, new york city jfk as you guys are well familiar with. and when you look at the number of flights going on today, today is not the busiest. the busiest will be sunday. one other change that we're noticing in terms of the airlines and what they're dealing with, because of the greater demand, they're adding
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more red eye flights. they're on pace to have their most profitable year. domestically they're racking up the profits. although you wouldn't be able to tell that taking a look at airlines. it's been a tough year. within the last couple of weeks the airline stocks have had a bounceback given the low oil prices. guys, back to you. >> phil lebeau, thank you for that. at the united operations center in chicago. amid global travel warnings, the president is set to make a statement on national security from the white house in about 20 minutes' time. 11:40 a.m. eastern. we will bring that to you live just past the bottom of the hour. meantime, the s&p has gone positive for the week by about one point. it's historically a positive week for the major averages. today is the last full trading day. we got a slew of data. personal income and durable goods for october coming in better than expected. consumer sentiment and home sales is touch below expectations but still slightly positive for the major averages.
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meanwhile, shares of deere seeing a nice gain after earnings topped estimates. the equipment maker saying sales are expected to drop about 7% for fiscal 2016. down about 11% so far this year. but deere up about 2.5% today. when we come back, one-on-one with a top uber exec who helped grow the company from a small ride sharing service into a business worth over $50 billion. plus black friday always a big day for gaming. we've got an exclusive with the top boss for xbox over at microsoft. and fan duel and draft kings having their day in court. we are live in a court battle the rest of the country is watching closely. when "squawk alley" returns. (friends gasp) the app where you put fruit hats on animals? i love that! guys, i'll be writing code that helps machines communicate. (interrupting) i just zazzied you. (phone vibrates) look at it! (friends giggle) i can do dogs, hamsters, guinea pigs... you name it. i'm going to transform the way the world works. (proudly) i programmed that hat. and i can do casaba melons.
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ryan graves was suber's first employee but he's now in charge of global operations. he spoke exclusively with our josh lipton about uber's challenges as it looks to redefine the transportation. josh is live in san francisco with more. josh? >> kayla, uber is now the most valuable vc-backed company in the world at $51 billion. but as uber grows, so, too, does attention from regulators. this year a labor commissioner ruled an uber driver was an employee rather than a contract worker. graves made it clear uber is going to fight that challenge. >> over half of drivers are using a platform less than ten
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hours a week. for this full-time discussion, that's just not how it's our platform is used. when you dig in one click into the data on how drivers think about using uber to earn supplemental income, it becomes pretty obvious. >> now, the risk for uber and its investors, of course, is that its drivers are designated employees which could have a real impact on the company's cost structure. in california alone, uber could take a $200 million hit according to recode's calculatio calculations. they ferry more than just passengers. it's transporting everything from food to flu shots. where graves tells me customers can expect delivery times to keep getting faster. >> as we scale, the delivery times will go from five to three to one minute. and all of a sudden you will come to uber for more things like you said. you'll be able to get food, able to get product, able to get around town. that's what we're focused on. >> graves made it clear that
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uber's advantage is this realtime logistics network. now more than 1 million active drivers around the world and counting. jon, back to you. >> all right. thanks, josh. up next, fan duel and draft kings finally having their day in court. we're live at the courthouse to tell you what to expect when "squawk alley" comes right back.
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draft kings and fan duel squaring off against the attorney general of new york in manhattan this afternoon. eric is live outside the courthouse with more. >> how you doing? right behind me at 12:00, that's when draft kings and fan duel is going to get their chance to speak in front of the judge. this is not about shutting down the sites forever. it's about shutting them down temporarily while the real trial goes on. the real trial is going to go on no matter what, so the question today is do they get shut down now while the trial happens? what's at stake is a lot of
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money. if you look at each of these companies, each of them bring in over $20 a week in entry fees from players around the country. the valuations are over a billion and a quarter for each company in their last funding round. but if you look at the private market now, some are saying these numbers have been cut in half. if you're a venture capital investor, you're concerned about what might happen in today's results. there's a good chance, though, that the judge is not going to say anything today. he might hear the arguments and then after the hour's up, they're going to go on their mandated lunch break and he might just say come back after thanksgiving and i'll have my result for you. so we might not get a result today. but we're hoping for one. we have already seen david boies walk in. we saw the draft kings ceo jason robbins. he's already there. he court is backs. there are not many seats. people are trying to squeeze in to see what's going to happen. >> i think we need daily fantasy
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litigation. >> i got boies this weekend. >> strong pick. >> a lot of the bills piling up for all the ads they bought on fox and espn and other channels. let's count you down to the close in europe and the uk. with about seven minutes until the closing bell there. erasing tuesday's losses according to reuters, the ecb considering new stimulus measures. that sent the euro to eight-month lows early in the session. travel related stocks rebounding a day after the geopolitical risks weighed on the sector. lufthansa also helped by news that the cabin crew has called off a strike that was planned for this week. meantime up next, a closer look at what's being done to keep shoppers safe this holiday season in light of the paris attacks and a world with heightened security. plus the head of microsoft's xbox business joins us. more "squawk alley" in a minute. here at td ameritrade, they work hard.
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most weekends only last a couple of days. some last a lifetime. hampton. we go together. always get the lowest price, only when you book direct at come happy birthday. i just had a heart attack... and now i have a choice. for her. for them. and him. a choice to take brilinta. a prescription for people who've been hospitalized for a heart attack. i take brilinta with a baby aspirin more than 100 mg. as it affects how well it works. it's such an important thing to do to help protect against another heart attack. brilinta worked better than plavix. and even reduced the chances of dying from another one. don't stop taking brilinta without talking to doctor. since stopping it too soon
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increases your risk of clots in your stent, heart attack, stroke, and even death. brilinta may cause bruising or bleeding more easily or serious, sometimes fatal bleeding. don't take brilinta if you have bleeding, like stomach ulcers. a history of bleeding in the brain, or severe liver problems. tell your doctor about bleeding, new or unexpected shortness of breath, any planned surgery and all medicines you take. i will take brilinta today. tomorrow. and every day for as long as my doctor tells me. don't miss a day of brilinta. good morning, everyone. i'm sue herrera. here is your cnbc news update at this hour. the pentagon says human error caused a strike on an afghan hospital run by democracy without borders. >> no nation does more to prevent civilian casualties than the united states. but we failed to meet our own high expectations on october 3rd. this was a tragic but avoidable
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accident caused primarily by human error. pope francis is in kenya today to begin his first-ever trip to the african continent. the pontiff received a warm reception upon his arrival in nairobi. francis also visited uganda and the african republic during his six-day visit. it's a hot one. the united nations weather agency says early reports show this year will go down as the hottest on record. surpassing the 2014 levels. the u.n. report blames global warming and a strong el nino for the heat. despite terrorism fears, aaa says nearly 47 million americans are expected to make a thanksgiving holiday getaway this year. that's the highest number of travelers since 2007. one big reason, of course, is cheap gas. the price of regular is about $2 a gallon, down 80 cents from a year ago. and that is the cnbc news update this hour. back to "squawk alley." carl, hope all of you guys have a great thanksgiving. >> and to you, sue.
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thank you so much. >> sure. we're watching the situation meantime in turkey. russia's foreign minister suggesting the downing of its bomber by turkish jets resembled a, quote, planned provocation. however, he reiterated that moscow has no intention of fighting a war with turkey. cnn east hadley gamble is live with more. >> hey, carl. this has been described to me as a shot geps the bow. it's simply turkey saying stay out of our air space. there's been a ratcheting up on tensions between russia and turkey and certainly nato having to come out, president obama, angela merkel as well. and expressing support for turkey. why is this is the bigger question moving forward about how tense the situation is really going to get. what we understand so far is that the rush pilot who survived the crash of the plane yesterday has come out and said saying he wasn't given any warning
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whatsoever as to turkish intentions before they downed his plane. now, we also know from turkish authorities they have reiterated again and again that they warned these russian aircraft. they said stay out of their air space. so the tit for tat there continuing. against the backdrop of whether or not the economic ties of these two countries will continue as they have before. this has become a strong relationship. they have big ties when it comes to tourism, trade, as well as energy. turkey pays $25 billion per year in energy bills, they get their energy from russia. you have to remember we're talking about the trade route between russia, turkey, and russia and the west. a major part of that is where i'm standing right now. that means of course that any russian military hardware as well on its way to the eastern mediterranean to fight against the islamic state is going to have to pass most likely through this strait. so some tense times in relations between these two countries. and the bigger question is going to be whether egos are going to end up trumping economics. guys? >> and we'll be very keen to see
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how the meeting plays out between french president francois hollande and russian president vladimir bootheputin. the alert coming this week, authorities are taking action to keep shoppers safe this holiday season. scott cohn is live in san jose with more on that for us. scott? >> good morning. this is santana row, it is sort of the shopping destination for silicon valley at least the people who still shop in brick and mortar stores. it's a upscale area with a lot of well to do people, fancy cars and the like. and you would think a security nightmare. but for people who keep track of this, they say it's as important as what you see in the way of stepped up security this holiday season is what you don't see. shopping centers across the country as well as the international council of shopping centers are in close
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contact with federal authorities for any sorts of threats and are certainly keeping track and keeping an eye on the situation at all shopping centers. we spoke to the nation's largest mall operation. they told us in a statement simon is regularly in communication with the department of homeland security and is an active member of the fbi's domestic security align council. simon's security policies and procedures have been safety act certified and designated by the department of homeland security as effective antiterrorism measures. one of the most important things is not so much on the shopping mall operates but on you. the sad reality of this time we live in is when you go to a public place, you need to have a plan in case the worst should happen. it is not the greatest way to think about the holiday season, but again, that's the times we're living in. guys? >> well said, scott. thank you very much. our scott cohn. we are awaiting a statement on national security from the president. he's expected to speak from the
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white house in about ten minutes' time. we'll bring that to you live in just a few moments. meantime, the markets have displayed some resilience this week. we are just about at the break even level for the week. consumer discretionary all year has continued to outperform. with lowe's home depot and nike trading at levels they have not seen since their respective ipos. and watching shares of hp inc. down 4% after earnings and revenue missed analyst estimates. jon, quite a performance for a stock that we have gotten to know just very recently. >> yeah. a reversal there. and "star wars" and halo could be battling it out for the best game this year. microsoft is of course the owner now of minecraft. and this next guest was part of the launch team for the original xbox. shannon loftus is xbox general
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manager. great to have you. to start off, i've got to ask. sony released numbers that they sold 30 million playstation 4s thus far. can you tell us how many xbox ones have told? >> the first thing i want to say is it's such a great time to be a gamer and the industry itself has so much momentum and so many new people are coming into video games every single year. we are the number one selling console in the united states last month. and we're setting records all over the place with xbox live and engagement and numbers and new signups. >> so any overall update on the xbox one then? >> no updates on the numbers right now. >> okay. so a lot of bundles that you guys have coming out this holiday season. lots of questions about exactly how consoles are going to fair versus some of the other options. what are you seeing in the leadup to the holiday season as
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far as what's going to be hot? based on what's going on across the globe, i would have question on first person shooters. are people going to back away from that? are they more into escapist games perhaps? >> our goal for the holiday is to provide a broad array of choices. and what people are gravitating to are the mega hits. obviously halo 5 guardians is our main. we've seen tremendous uptick on the multi-player component of it. but the best thing about basically video games this fall is how many different choices people have. so there's tomb raider which is rise of the tomb raider which is a game about a female adventurer who explores lost worlds and battles mysterious enemies. and then minecraft, obviously, which allows people to explore the limits and the depths of their imaginations. >> how is online evolving as
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part of the picture of console games? of course xbox live has been strong for you guys since the beginning. you were pioneering the features as far as that goes. how does that fit into the business model during the holiday? or is that something that comes in after you see the uptick? then you see a shift in online usage as well. >> the great news about xbox live is you can access it from any windows device now. so it'll really becoming more than just a multi-player gaming arena. it's a place that people are in a community, enganling with friends, and developing a personal brand. we've seen an uptick in xbox live every time we release, but also every time something exciting happens in the industry. >> now, what about security? there were questions around the use of playstation's online component for terrorists to communicate. we were just talking about xbox live, how great it is for
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multi-player. how do you approach a subject like that that now people are asking lots of questions about? >> we focus on keeping our gamers safe and we focus on protecting people's information. the xbox live community is incredibly strong and very tightly moderated. we keep track, obviously, of how many people are online and what they're doing. but in general, xbox live is a super positive community. it's really about the people that are online playing games. they come together because they want to be together socially. >> shannon, how long until vr is legitimately a major narrative in the holiday gaming season? is that three seasons away? five? ten? >> well, without putting a specific number on it, what i love watching right now is what vr is inspiring story tellers to do. every time somebody dons one of the headsets they find a new way to create a new experience
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nobody's had. i think we're still a little bit, maybe one or two years away from vr being a mass market option. but it is gaining momentum among the creative community. >> and competition from smartphones and app stores, how much does that factor in or how much has that become a tail wind? as you mentioned now, xbox live is available across a number of platforms, not just on a console. >> all the devices that are powered by windows 10 can work together. and so it's really every new device gives you a new way to dip into the rich franchises that exist on xbox live. so smartphones, pcs, tablets, they're all just new avenues into our flagship ips. >> all right. we will see how the holiday season plays out as ever. microsoft versus sony, strong lineup from you guys. shannon loftis, microsoft studios general manager. thanks for joining us. >> thank you for having me.
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meantime, 25 billion up a few moments ago. rick santee lee? >> well, it's the last of the supply for the week. we capped off $29 billion seven-year notes. the option, 2.013. that was lower than when trading. and the grade, a-minus. the best of the three. and it didn't have any stellar features, but they were all very solid. if i look at the yield, lower yield, higher price. that's a good one. $2.51 of cash. 55.9 on indirect, better than 55. and directs at 13.5 resemble the directs of several auctions. that seems to be the non-dealer strength in these auctions. about 30.5% go to primary dealers. but it was solid from top to bottom. yields coming down a bit.
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traders getting ready for the holiday weekend. kayla, back to you. >> thanks so much, rick santelli with that report. coming up, still waiting for president obama who is set to speak on national security from the white house. we will go there live as soon as he begins in just a moment.
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coming up on the half-time show, coes on the hot seat. marissa myer of yahoo and meg
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whitman. we're going to discuss with our experts. plus the retail stocks that should be on your shopping list and the ones you should leave on the shelf. and we are live with the very latest on the holiday travel rush. carl, we'll see you in about ten minutes or so. >> all right. sounds good, scott. thanks. we're awaiting that statement on national security from president obama. he's expected to speak from the white house any moment now. we'll bring that to you live when he begins to speak. in the meantime, let's get over to the cme group and visit with rick santelli. rick? >> hi, carl. you know, this week has been an interesting week. a litany of data points today. a lot of important data points this week. in my opinion the most important data point we had was gdp. it was our second look at third quarter. and i know that we only have one labor statistic left, one jobs report the beginning of december for our mid-two-day meeting that would normalize rates. and how good or not good was that gdp report?
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so i did a little interesting work. i took the gdp quarter over quarters for 2013, '14, and '15. the biggest aempbl of the last three years is a little over 2.5%. that was last year. the year before close at $2.45. here's where it's interesting. we all know they're going to change the calculation because some of the relationships between first quarter and second quarter get muddy. first is usually weak. second is usually strong. but they want to make it a little more accurate. fine. i'm looking at averages. and we know that 2.1% was the number up from 1.5% we received the other day. here's where it gets fascinating. i'm going to use that 2.1%. gdp now, 2.3%. if you use that and that's why the asterisks are there, you end up with 2.2%.
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less than the previous two years. it's not 2.3% anymore. it's now moved to 1.8%. so if we factor that in, it moves to 2.1% versus 2.22%. the point to this is that europe supposedly would kill for our gdp. we'd supposedly kill for china's gdp. but it's only about the rate of change and how much horsepower all economies put in the global economy. these aren't bad numbers. they're actually our new normal if i go by averages. but the point is whether we raise the lower rates or don't change rates a quarter point or from 75 to 1%, whatever it may be. i don't know this makes a huge difference. but the real point is the only reason we monitor this is to trade markets and assess the economy. right now whether rates move or not, we have structural issues. i normally only use those words for europe. but think about it.
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think about inversions and tax policy. everybody knows what's wrong and they all know how to ignore it better than everybody else. kayla, back to you and i hope you and yours have a wonderful thanksgiving. >> and to you as well. rick santelli in chicago. rick, thanks. president obama set to make that national security statement from the white house in a moment. let's check in with cnbc's chief washington correspondent john harwood this morning who's live outside the white house. john, to what degree to we suspect these comments will have to do with what he said yesterday alongside hollande? >> we don't expect much news in these comments today, carl. what this is about, i think, is president obama assuring the country that we're not aware of paris-type credible threats against the united states, but his homeland security team is monitoring the situation. remaining vigilant. he'll be there with director comey, the jeh johnson the director of homeland security. i think this is a statement as
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americans go to the airport, they get on the highways, they gather for thanksgiving to try to make them feel a slightly greater level of comfort in the wake of what we've seen in paris and in mali. >> john, as we await the president, we're joined this morning on the phone by jack rice, a former cia officer and terrorism expert. good to talk to you this morning. >> great to be with you. >> he didn't go very far yesterday. he talked a little bit about airlines offering more disclosure on passenger manifests. but you don't expect much change either, do you? >> i really don't. again, your analyst is correct here. i think what we're going to find is sort of a general sort of calm down, we've got this in hand. there's no credible threat at this point but we have everybody watching. just to make sure people don't start to spin out of control. we started to see a ramping up around the country with a lot of fear. and i think it was important that the president kind of come out and make this point just so americans understand it.
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>> on one hand, though, jack, this alert and the acknowledgment that there is no credible threat here at home might not do much to comfort people here who are traveling abroad. what would you say to those american who is have plans to get on a plane and go somewhere in europe or go somewhere in asia? >> well, it's a very, very good point. because the state department just came out on this very issue. yesterday as they talked about a worldwide alert here and this doesn't happen very much. typically the state department says this country, this region, this time they went worldwide and said americans need to be vigilant. they need to keep their eyes open. i think that's legitimate. the problem with it sometimes is when you make a generalized statement like that, it's not particularly helpful. because it doesn't really tell you anything. it would be nice to have a little bit more but again, the real problem that you have is you can take a look at the downing of the airliner in egypt. you can take a look at the bombing that was in beirut right before the one that was in paris
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versus the hotel that was hit in mali. it goes on and on and on. so when you have these various attacks that are driven themselves and then inspired additional attacks, it's very difficult to pin down exactly what could happen next hence the state department's decision. so i guess at the end of the day all we could really say to americans flying worldwide, you have to be as pragmatic and as practical as you possibly can. keep your eyes open. if there is something that feels wrong, you need to move. you need to keep moving. and try to keep as low profile as you can. i don't think you need to walk around with an american flag strapped around your shoulders. >> we've become familiar with the adage if you see something, say something. it hits particularly close to home for us new yorkers. what other advice would you give those who are traveling for this holiday? >> i think it depends upon where they are. if i'm in southeast asia, things have been relatively calm in that region of the world. if i'm in parts of africa, if
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i'm in west africa, i'm really watching. boko haram is incredibly active right now. we're seeing al qaeda in the maghreb. those are the ones who took responsibility for that attack in mali. they're aggressive and they're starting to loop together. we're starting to see a lot of areas -- if you're looking right now in the turkey area, that's an area of real concern. there was just the downing of that russian airliner -- russian fighter plane by the turks. things are ramping up there. the russians just took down about two dozen terrorists in the northern caucuses. that's an area that is really hot. i would stay out of that probably. there are areas like that. in western europe, again, i think you're reasonably okay here. you just have to watch what you're doing. of course we're looking at belgium right now and they're on high alert and rightfully so. and it's difficult to dig into just how much intelligence they
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have because they're not making it very public. >> indeed. john harwood, of course, we get word from some russian news agencies today that the surviving pilot from that downed russian jet said there were no visual or >> it certainly complicates the ability of the administration and france to get russia willing to accept the guidance of the united states to target isil as opposed to moderate syrian rebel forces and to agree to some sort of political process that results in bashar al assad and syria and the administration believes it's the key to the resolution of the civil war and
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the coalition hopes of taking that coalition and merge it with the two nation coalition of iran. they got much more difficult. >> jack, from -- for u.s. interests, what do we want to see elon accomplish as he meets with merkel and goes to renzi and putin. >> the problem we're having is the exact opposite effect right now. >> and more importantly they're targeting the very people who
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would be targeting isil themselves. so you are pushing that apart. in the last, oh, 15 hours is that he has called the attack on the russian fighter a provocation. he is saying in the mast that what we have seen is that the turks -- muslim extremism in the so what are you seeing is a pushing apart of the two very organization, the very two countries that the americans would hope would come together. to him just now we're trying to see the very same thing with merkel and then ultimately with putin. everybody will be standing on the same stage saying the same thing. right now they're not. >> in the meantime, though, assuming russia doesn't change their stance regarding air strikes, i mean, it's like
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trying to dance on a razor blade. it's just not happening again at some point. >> oh, without -- well, the thing is that this kurdish group is essentially the equivalent of the pkk, another kurdish group inside of turkey, and that group, the pkk, is considered a terrorist group by the turks and by the americans, but essentially they're the same people. they're the same group. sometimes they even use the same weapons. so we have a terrorist group on one side, and we have freedom fighters on the other side, and we're supporting one that &
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we're rejecting the other. that's our problem. sometimes it's very difficult to decide who theood guys are and who the bad guys are. >> jack, isn't it unclear russia or turkey and isil. they are saying the russian -- assad and turkish priority as you just mentioned is making sure the kurds don't gain. is it a futile hope that everybody is going to come together and get on the same page with the same agenda here? >> yes. how is that for a clearance. yes, i think it is a bit of a pipe dream because the kurds have made it very, very clear those who i have talked to when i was in southeastern turkey covering essentially the war that was being fought between turks and the occurred kurds in northern iraq and what the turks are very clearly trying to do and continue to do. that is simply inconsistent with what it is that the americans
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are doing. the same thing with the russians. the russians are trying to do something completely different. i mean, they have a longstanding relationship in support of the damascus regime as do the iranians, and they are really selling them arms. they are moving a lot in there, and they're trying to keep their influence in the region and what the americans are trying to do is convince the russians to lose influence in the region. >> how much is that easier said than done at this point in the game? >> it's much harder than one thing. i recall flying into istanbul and then working my way to the arbiter and going south. what i found when i was in that area, which is one of the bigger military base that is wave seen that's being used by the turks, we find it had a lot of apache
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attack helicopters as other attack aircraft that they're using. and the numbers continue to grow because they're stuck in the middle of everybody trying to kill each other. it's very, very difficult to stop this mass of humanity that desperately tried to get out of the way of the bullets. is there any sense as to how lo long. >> look, he is being dragged into a somewhat more hawkish stance. the question is does it cross
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the line into an actual commitment of ground troops. not just special forces, but actual ground troops. interestingly, hollande did yesterday. he said he didn't support that either, and that's really the constraint that he has been operating under informed by the stance that he came into national politics taking. that is president bush's decision to go into iraq, was misguided, that it was a dumb war, that he didn't oppose all wars, but he opposed dumb wars. this was won, and he committed to draw it down. that led to the decision point when you got to the end of the agreement and on schedule as set by president bush. barack obama drew out the troops from iraq. that's become a controversial decision. there was no status of forces agreement, and some people say that the president should have tried harder to get one, in which case we would have had a
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different security situation now. are we know clearly what the president's impulse is, and i think it's going to take a lot, certainly more than that's happened, to get him to cross that line. they are necessary in appropriate for combatting isil. i think he has a strategy that he is comfortable. . there's going to be war air strikes. to that point, are you sensing any -- the intense or the pentagon communities might have in mind or what to do. >> there really is. in the perfect world that's what the president wants. what we will see is we will see an increase in air strikes, without question. we can go back and take a look
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at what it is that they're doing right now. before the iraq war. at the same time what you are going to see is -- we've seen this almost every single war in the last 15 or 20 or 30 or 40 or 50 years and go back to -- we saw the very same thing. what are we doing now? you're going to see -- i want more aggression. i want to see more people going down somewhere, and they're going to have not just special forces that are being pushed and they are being pushed now. you'll see support for special forces.
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if you can't stop them for what we're trying to do, what do you do next? it's always the next question. that's what we're going to start seeing. very different interests. doesn't the ralculus -- a number of u.s. ground troops in that same area where the existence of the coalition isn't leer. if those ground troops then get attacked, doesn't that increase the likelihood of mission creek on a much more accelerated scale? >> oh, without question. if you have inconsistent interests, you have three, four, five, ten differentar


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