tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC November 30, 2015 12:00pm-1:01pm EST
have a good rest of this cyber monday. love kobe's comments, i just don't want to do this anymore. as the knees must be hurting at the ripe old age of 37. we're keeping an eye on the news conference from the imf. if she begins to speak, we'll take that live. now, doug wapner and the half. >> all right, guys, thanks so much. let's meet our starting lineup. steve weiss is here along with josh brown and mike santoli, cnbc's markets commentator. call of the day, as speculation swirls about lululemo's future, one analyst live. adam parker is with us on where he sees stocks heading in 2016. we do begin though in retail as investors digest how much we shopped, how much cash we
dropped and of course where we did it. the numbers so so with thanksgiving spending declining from a year ago. all this as so-called cyber monday is now in full swing. so spending down, but seems to be the prevailing thought. it could have been much worse. >> well, yeah, that, and then there's some question about are sales that normally would have occurred at the mall or in a department store occurring for the same retailer but online. you keep in mind, people are sending out black friday e-mail blasts the day after halloween these days. so it pulls some shopping forward, it pushes some back. i've seen a study that shows the biggest shopping day is not only black friday but the 23rd of december. so i just think that shopping has changed. consumer habits is not what they were in the 80s. i'm not sure how reliable looking at any one day is as a gauge for anything. there were blowout black friday numbers in 2009 while the economy was still crashing. >> more people are spending
online than they are in stores. we know that. i'm wondering whether it changes in any way the kind of decisions you would make on what stocks you would buy or sell. >> i think it makes it much more difficult. to go with the brick and morpter retailers, you really don't know because cheap has become cheaper. look at macy's. the stock was in the mid-50s. it was 60 actually. now you're looking at sub-40s. it's really extended the season and you don't have to plan time. you don't have to go there on a black friday. don't have to go there on a saturday. you can do it at your convenience. so we don't know until the season's actually over. and then of course you won't know until you see what the margins are because it's gotten so competitive online. you're seeing the comodization of an industry. that's the real story here. unique products. and very few are out there. >> cheap has gotten cheaper. that's what weiss says. not only talking about what some stocks have done, but ticket
prices on various items in a year where consumers should have more spending power because what gas prices have done, you have concerns from various houses on the street, saying discounting is particularly concerning this year. names where you're seeing 50% off, 60% off, already. >> the categories where most physical retailers have most of their inventory have zero pricing. it's clothing, it's footwear to some degree, it's electronics. all these things that make up most of what you see on store shelves. i think that's really been the environment for some time. if you look at the stocks, the sector really did have kind of a "v" last week. you had the post-macy's/nordstrom sell-off. as these guys have said, it's just a new world. it's not like the end game is this particular holiday season. >> look, a name like underarmor gets the price target lower today by piper jaffray. they're talking about being
overly promotional. a lot to do with the weather. cramer this morning saying it's the most weather oriented of all the apparel companies. you can't get away from the fact that weather's been an issue. plank told me that himself a few weeks back down in d.c. i just think it's important to keep in mind that, you know, this is -- a lot of this stuff has already been priced into the market. the retailer -- let's look at the srt as a proxy for retail. that topped two months before the s&p, back in late march actually. now that's down about 6.5%. equal weight retailer down about 6.5% year to date, one of the worst sectors out there. i think we didn't have high ek pensi expectations anyway so nobody should be surprised a lot of it is a little bit ho-hum. >> it's really this issue where the negotiating power is. that's changed the dynamics. i don't care if you go further.
i do believe the consumer will spend more money. because of the gas dividend it's big, it's huge. so because they spend more money, doesn't mean the retailers make more money. >> we're going to get back to this conversation in just one minute. i do want to go to our sara eisen who has breaking news recording the imf and currency. >> it is official, christine la guard announcing that china's currency, the yuan, will be added to the global basket of major reserve currencies. it's a badge of honor for china. much more to do with the symbolic purpose than financial impact. it is the imf recognizing china's a major player on the economic stage and that its currency is getting increasingly important in world trade. there is christine leguard. she's saying the chinese
currency, the yuan will be added to the imf reserve basket. she says including it is an important milestone. she says she recognizes china's progress on economic and financial reforms. but also says deepening of reform efforts will make the international monetary and financial system more robust. sort of acknowledging there's still more work to do on the part of china when it comes to opening up its markets and its economies. and just to tell you, it is an exclusive club joining the imf reserve basket. china joins the dollar, which has the biggest weighting, of more than 40%, in this basket. the euro, the british pound and the japanese yen. we're waiting for her to talk about the exact weighting of how big china will make up. it's pretty technical. estimates around 14% to 16%. either way, this is symbolic. it is a recognition on the part of the international community. remember, the imf is made up of almost 200 members around the world including the united states. that china's a player.
and that its currency has just entered the global stage in a bigger way. >> sara, thank you so much. interesting news today from the imf. back to our retail conversation. i'm just noticing from our stocks desk the srt, retail etf, is at the lows of the day. if you look at some retail stocks, they typically do not perform well on cyber monday. maybe some of the traditional brick and mortar ones. sears on average down 3% along with macy's, kohl's, all not faring well typically on a cyber monday. >> you have to wonder if that's just because it's a giveback of people getting overexcited about black friday days before. it was only called cyber monday for the last decade or so. before that, it was just called the monday after thanksgiving. and then you probably had, again, some giveback, people anticipated some kind of busy traveling weekend. >> we sent john, he's our favorite shopper, to the mall of america on black friday to see where consumers were shopping or
weren't. john, you always talk about your channel checks. what did you find at one of the biggest malls anywhere? >> the biggest retail mall in the world, judge. i tell you what, that dialing forward of demand and all the rest of it certain lip played out in a big way there. they opened up on thanksgiving at 6:00 p.m. it basically went 24/7 after that. a lot of stores didn't participate in the whole time but they wear shoppers out. by 2:00 in the morning after thanksgiving into black friday, you had basically almost nobody walking through those malls. so for instance, i showed up at 10:30. was going around with the camera crew. we were checking out all retailers. there's three entire floors. we walked for miles, judge, in and out of all these different places. i want to tell you, it was the thinnest crowd i have ever seen. by 2:00 in the afternoon when we
were winding up, the crowds were packed. the parking lots were full. things seemed to be a little more normal. but to lose that many hours, key hours, from basically 6:00 in the morning until at least 2:00 in the afternoon, that was bizarre to see it that sparse. >> doc, i don't know what the weather was around the mall of america this weekend but it doesn't look like it was freezing cold because i see from the video that i was just looking at that people are walking in either shirt sleeves or sweatshirts, not heavy parkas. i'm wondering if people were just out doing other things and the weather continues to take a toll on retail, especially department stores and malls. >> well, that will fool you, judge, because a lot of those folks left their coats in the car. it was about 22 degrees. so was plenty cold on that black friday. but they left the coats in the cars, as they usually do, and then came into the mall because it's 72 all the time in the mall. again, to see people actively shopping, the ones that were actively shopping, lulu, apple
and microsoft, those stores, both, they're right across from each other in the mall, both of them packed. i know it's hard to hear, a microsoft store packed, but literally set up across the hall from the apple store and they were doing a brisk business according to the manager. i think josh's stock, l brands, victoria's secret, was doing very well, because i judged by the number of bags. again, it picked up in the late afternoon. there was a eight-hour block there where there was almost nobody in the mall. >> we'll see you back here. >> thanks, see you tomorrow. >> look forward to that. dr. j. doing a little channel checking. want to stick with retail and lulu. got a downgrade today and a big one to sell at fbr capital, the firm cutting its price target by more than 20%. susan anderson is the analyst behind it. she joins us today live from virginia. we were just hearing the
najarian indicator at the mall of america saying traffic was brisk at lulu and maybe that's because the discounts were big. >> i agree, yes. the traffic was very strong. i don't doubt they were trying to drive sales in those stores. the problem is, in our checks, we noticed that clearance was almost double what it was last year and the markdown rate was almost 10% greater. most of the consumers were buying these clearance items which i think is going to weigh on the margins for fourth quarter. we did bring our numbers down. we're now 10 cents breaux the street for fourth quarter. i think this heavy clearance which started out at the end of the second quarter when they had inventories up 55% is going to continue to weigh on the margins in fourth quarter. >> much of the chatter around the stock at least for the past couple of weeks seemed to be speculation over a takeout. an underarmor or whoever you name company coming in and buying lulu. how likely do you think that is? >> yeah, i don't think an
underarmor or nike would be interested. i think they want their own power brands. in women's, they want to have their own brand. however, if the stock does get cheap enough, there is the potential of someone else like a vf corp where it makes sense to come in and purchase them. >> if it gets cheap enough, right? your target implies about a 20 times multiple on next year right so is this stock just still in the fallen glamour growth stock phase and it has to grow back in that in your estimation? >> i think so, yeah. we have about mid-teens earnings growth for next year. at 23 times right now, i think it's too expensive. even at 20 times it could be too expensiv expensive. but it does look more attractive, in the low 40s versus 50s level. >> i agree, i think it is still too expensive. i traded a little bit. it was okay.
won a little, lost a little. in terms of their promotional, isn't it still getting rid of the old styles? i was in the store by me and it was absolutely packed. the promotional lines were stuff you wasn't wear if they gave it to you. isn't that a function of it, rather than the brand continuing to erode? >> yeah, maybe that's why they had to mark it down so much. but yeah, you know, the company supposedly related to the poor issues, had very heavy inventory, was up 55%. they had set up that point in time about two-thirds of it they could sell through in the back half at full price, but i think this past weekend indicates that's likely not happening. i think it's going to bleed into fourth quarter greater than we expected and likely bleed into next year too. >> susan, appreciate it very much. interesting call for certain. that stock down more than 5%. susan anderson with us today from fbr. you buy the stock or not? >> no, if i had to buy it, i
would have a stop just below 40. they had this whole great turnaround story last year. you've now lost all the gains from that narrative. now i'm not interested. hoping for a takeover. >> the topic quit straig equity. and why one analyst upgrades 23 oil stocks to a buy. and only a month left to trade in our halftime portfolio competition. find out if that man right there, mr. movember. >> so tired, stock. >> are you sticking with what's working? you're watching cnbc. at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like mute buttons equal danger. ...that sound good? not being on this phone call sounds good. it's not muted. was that you jason?
the imf announcing they'll add the chinese yuan to the reserve basket. a major move, if you consider, now, the company that it is in. >> very esteemed company. the real action will happen when they actually put what the weighting is. it's like an index, like anything else. then you'll see people start making bets. it's got to accommodate a new player. to me, the important thing about this is, leguard wouldn't have
done this unless they saw china really liberalizing their -- in other words, making it more attractive for foreign companies to go in there. and moving the band around. that's going to be critical. they only rebalance once every five years. so you have that. can you imagine how embarrassing it would be for china to come and say 14%? and because they don't live up to what they've promised for the imf to downgrade them to 3% or something. >> i'm with steve. this is really -- it might not be a major major milestone but it's another baby step. and it's another thing that is slowly legitimizing china as a place to put capital where it's not a complete black hole and we start to shed some of that stigma. you think about msei last week adding some mainland chinese companies into their indices. i think net-net, they're positive. if chinese stocks were added in
the weight they really are at the global market capitalization, they'd be at 20%, where the u.s. is 50%. there's a lot that still has to happen but it's a good sign, it's a good step forward. >> i would agree, in a way, it's a lagging, grudging acknowledgement of exactly how big an economic profile china has. it's just now getting these basically acknowledgements by the rest of the world, by the financial kind of infrastructure of the rest of the world, that it belongs there. it probably is better to have china involved and to kind of advance whatever reforms. >> even one that has been so strongly criticized for being a currency manipulator over the years, the significance of that in and of itself. >> the story's backwards because they're selling treasuries. the whole narrative of they're manipulating currency or we owe china all this money. it's five years stale. that's what a lot of the i think -- >> here's how it worked out.
imf. china came to the imf and said, what to we have to do to get into there, right. the imf said, do these things, we'll put you in. hopefully it moves forward. >> there's a lot of focus this week not only on the chinese market which has been turbulent yet again over the last few days but in the markets in general, lots of economy data on the calendar, the ecb meeting this week, the big jobs report of course. joining us now, adam parker, the chief u.s. equity strategist at morgue stanley. live from new york city with us once again. welcome back. i hope you had a good thanksgiving. it's good to see you. >> good to see you too. >> all right. your note for 2016, your headline, feeling worse but not sure we can explain it. i'm going to ask you to explain it now. what does that mean? >> it's kind of a buzz kill, you know. i came into the process. we do collaboration with our strategists around the world. as we kind of went through our normal diligence over a few
weeks together, i think the collective team came out of it a little more cautious. it's about 4% a year. on top of that, you have a little bit more than 2% net buy back in our view for 2016. you could say, i have 6% net earnings growth. that sounds pretty good. but we couldn't really forecast any multiple expansion. in fact, we think maybe it's prudent to assume some contraction, you know, just the way inflation works, the way our team is forecasting a strong dollar, the way our team's forecasting the fed to get off the zero balance. so we're forecasting low to mid-single digit return in the u.s. equity market. and so i think it's a little less, you know, unicorns and holly pops than i thought maybe a few months ago. >> it sounds like from reading the note this morning in part you simply got tired waiting for oil and the benefits of low oil
to kick in in the areas of the economy that we do well with low oil prices. >> probably a shade too low for the january earnings, but look, you had such a sharp decline a year ago in the oil price. such a big move in the dollar against the euro. we know their businesses have benefited from lower oil, a lower point environment. i still thing there's some on the calm. i think there's ways and ideas i have in the market, ways to play it. i think the magnitude's been a little bit more mute. >> you don't have one foot back in the bear suit, do you? i thought you put that thing away in the mothballs. >> things are cyclical. i think you use consumers as a good shape.
one way we like to put it, the tech sides, the traditional credit card companies. you guys are going through, in the previous segment, some of the retailers are just tough to call. you know people are going to use the plastic. they're working more hours. they're making more money. the gas prices are low. so they'll spend it on a charge card. we're using that credit card bet in a big way. both in the financial and i.t. sect wear those stocks reside. >> couple of things. last year, where you saw both bonds decline, talking about the ten-year, and the stock market decline together, was 1969. we know what happened, '70, the recession, everything there. with such a lowe equity, are yo seeing anything in fixed income? how do you see that playing out? >> i was born in 1969 so i don't
have a perfect recollection of that. but you'll look i guess a little younger than you are, steve. but, you know, our house call -- >> thanks, adam. >> -- working with today is that -- >> more so on tv than just on the set. >> i'm just a student of history. >> you guys have more makeup on than i do maybe. listen, when we look at cross asset work, you know, it depends what you're talking about. in the government bond site, you're saying makes a lot of sense. other parts of fixed income, our firm's a little bit more sanguine about credit. if you look at our equity forecast, 4% or so in that range, kind of total return, we look across merging markets. japan, europe. all have low single digit return outlooks. when you take that and you square with what people think is the risk/adjust return in other asset classes, i think it is shifting a little more from credit to equities.
my personal opinion is this is a midexpansion thing than the end of the rainbow. we're still big proponents of the fact this could be the longest expansion ever. i don't see tons of capital spends or hiring or inventory. i think you'll have kind of a year or two in the middle of the expansion where the market doesn't go up like it did in 2016. if went up with a low growth segment that lasts for a long time, then you can talk about a higher ex-w higher equity market. i wouldn't say that's the consensus view. i get some fresh perspective on that thesis. >> we'll talk to you soon. morgan stanley's adam parker. the chief u.s. equity strategist. so goldman's looking for nothing next year. we're at 2085 on the s&p. morgan stanley, looking for a little. barclay's looking for a little more.
2300 seems to be the optimistic view thus far. >> everybody's been calling for -- a lot people calling for a low return going forward. that's going to happen. >> so why is it -- why is that in stone? >> well, i don't think it's necessarily in stone. because your profit margins have peaked. they're coming down now. we've seen productivity take all it can out of margins. going forward, stock selection's going to be critical. hedge funds should be able to finally outperform. >> we'll have more on the breaking news, that the imf will add the yuan to its basket of reserve currencies. >> that decision is expected but we didn't know how important the chinese currency would be in the basket of reserve currencies. now we know. thanks to a brand-new pdf they
just put out. here are weightings. the u.s. dollar is going to comprise 41.7% of the reserve basket. so that's the biggest chunk of it. the euro has 30.9. the new chinese currency in the basket will be 10.92% of it. and that's a bigger percentage than the japanese yen and the british pound which has 8%. just to review what the changes mean. everybody gets a little less weighting. in fact, the u.s. dollar is pretty much the only one that stays. it was up 41% before the chinese currency was added. it just tells you that china is taking on a more important role in the global financial system in the imf basket of currencies. it's a vote of confidence. it's going to be celebrated in china. the interesting thing is going to be how the u.s. responds. president obama's been trying to smooth economic relations with china. but candidates like donald trump vp bashed china's currency
manipulators. be interesting to see how it plays out politically since it is a largely symbolic move at least in the near term. >> a greater influencer in the world economy clearly in the eyes of the imf and others than i don't know some may have thought or certainly more than japan is viewed by others. >> it's a low weighting than what was anticipated. the imf gave indications before. i don't know that matters. what does matter is where japan's going versus where ch a china's going. the direction's wrong. but the important thing to me is this doesn't mean it's okay to buy the chinese stock market. that's a whole different set of problems. this is something for trade, for currency traders, for rates, but not for equities. >> i totally agree. it makes all kinds of sense for it to be a larger weight than japan. just look at the absolute value of the economy. you know, again, it's a first step. because, you know, if it was going to be dollar for dollar or yuan for yuan, it would be a lot
bigger weight. >> about 10% of global trade is, you know, in china and let's say only 3% of it is transacted in yuan so maybe 10% is the right number, 11%, in that range. it's not just an economic story, it's a political story. this growing desire to have influence throughout the world politically, this is all part and parcel of having the currency be more widely used. you know, i think they'll be a lot more to come in the coming days to read and learn about it. >> here's a question for you. would a new ceo at yahoo! boost that stock? we debate the top candidates, if there were to be a shake-up at yahoo!. that's coming u next. i've been called a control freak... i like to think of myself as more of a control... enthusiast. mmm, a perfect 177-degrees. and that's why this road warrior rents from national.
(interrupting) i just zazzied you. (phone vibrates) look at it! (friends giggle) i can do dogs, hamsters, guinea pigs... you name it. i'm going to transform the way the world works. (proudly) i programmed that hat. and i can do casaba melons. i'll be helping turbines power cities. i put a turbine on a cat. (friends ooh and ahh) i can make hospitals run more efficiently... this isn't a competition! hello, everyone, here is your cnbc news update. rescue workers in oregon are attempting to reach two hikers missing on mt. jefferson. the local nbc news station reports at least one of the hikers fell into a krcrevasse a is injured. congress returns to work today with a long to do list. the biggest will be a $1.1
trillion spending bill to avoid another government shutdown. passing the funding measure will also be the first true test for newly elected speaker of the house paul ryan. a new nutritional warning is about to appear on some new york city menus. starting tomorrow, a salt shaker symbol will be put next to items above the recommended daily limit of sodium. the new regulation applies to chain restaurants with 15 or more locations nationwide. >> this is my favorite story of the day. a wonderful homecoming caught on video. during the first half of yesterday's vikings/falcons game in atlanta, senior airman brian smith surprises his 9-year-old son with a huge hug. and that is the cnbc news update this hour. halftime is back after a quick break. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices.
opec meeting that scott mentioned, all eyings are on that. what are you expecting? >> it's a big meeting. not only two weeks ago, saudi arabia said they with willing to talk to producers about stabilizing price. i'm buying the rumor ahead of this meeting. >> okay, jeff, what are the levels you're watching? seems like we're kind of stuck here at this $42 range. do you think we hit that 43 mark? >> yes, it seems like there's seller's fatigue. like bill highlighted this opec meeting, we're also being very sensitive in the crude oil futures market to the ecb as well as the fed. we have to get above 42.50. that's an imperative close. the bears have very weak hand if we close above 42.50 in crude oil. >> so not just a big week for the markets but also a big week for crude. we'll be watching. we'll be back to the live show tomorrow 1:00 p.m. eastern time. >> we want to stick with the oil trade now. a guest who upgraded a whopping
23 oil related stocks today. michael lamotte of guggenheim securities joins us live from big "d" down in dallas. one heck of a big call. 23 upgrades today. why today? >> we're essentially making a portfolio call. energy today constitutes about 7%. that's the lowest weighting in over a decade. if you look at the market cap and the oil field services sector in particular which is what we upgraded this morning, excluding the two biggest pieces, you're looking at about $100 billion. every 100 basis points of increase in the weighting is about $190 billion. when i look at the supply and demand for the equities, the market is very much underweight. i think with oil going up 30%, 50% in the next 12 to 18 months, you're going to be -- you want to be long higher crude names. >> you're making a crude call
here essentially. you say crude's going to rise further and faster than people think. it's going to reach 100 bucks a barrel by 2018. i'm wondering, yes, you've gotten some recent momentum in the price of crude, in maybe some of the stocks within that space. why should i think we're not going to be fooled in the end by what we're seeing right now? >> i think the biggest support to the longer -- the lower for longer thesis is the view that the u.s. shales can act like a behind pipe inventory. that once oil gets to 60, we'll be drilling like crazy again in the u.s. and production will start growing again. i think it's important to bear in mind that from 2010 to 2014, it took almost $1 trillion and five years of 90-plus dollar oil to get oil growth of 100,000 barrels a day to 1 million barrels a day in the u.s. a call on the u.s. resource of
100 million barrels a day in 2019. i think two years is just too fast and $60 is not high enough price to get that kind of capital deployed again. >> what does opec do this week if anything? >> i don't think they do anything. i think the strategy's playing out. if anything, i think it's interesting that ali is beginning to send some soundings that perhaps they've gone too far. we've gotten about $200 billion in projects slated to come online over the next five years taken offline. which really sets up i think for a price spike in the latter part of this decade. that's something that the lack of investment that we've seen in 2015 and will see again in 2016 is going to come back to bite us in 2018. >> michael, i appreciate your time today, thanks so much. michael lamotte over at guggenheim. is he right? >> so difficult to analyze. the most important consideration is a company's balance sheet. because some will be there and
be able to weather the storm and be acquirers of quality assets that the poorer companies with negative cash flow, that aren't making any money, won't for an extended period, are going to have to sell. >> the kind of stocks he's talking about, it's transocean, diamond offshore, ensco, noble. i mean, those are really beaten up. there's an easier trade. halliburton is breaking out right now. getting above 40 bucks. that's the level. that's the name you want to be in. i think it's in much better shape than a deep, deep ocean driller. >> coming up, an upgrade for fit bit. a strong buy for microsoft and one analyst's wish list for yahoo!. it's all coming up in our trader blitz. here at td ameritrade, they work hard.
wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
making news today. fit bit is up first. got an upgrade other ver at bar. >> it's a long overdue upgrade. i don't know that's like a good enough reason to buy. the reality is, if they don't have a blowout season, they're going to be some real questions about why this is a $6 billion market cap. i'm not in this name and i wouldn't buy it here. >> microsoft, over at raymond james, like it? >> it seems a little bit late. seems like it's sort of ratifying the move that microsoft stock has already had. basically, there's twice as many buy ratings on microsoft today as there was a year and a half ago. i don't think you can argue with the rationale necessarily. but, you know, it seems like the market can figure that out. >> they say, look, you got a company that looked as though it was a pc software vendor that had entirely missed mobile. to now one of the only hyper scale hybrid crowd vendors. i mean, it just speaks to the whole perception of where microsoft is, not to mention the
fact the fundamentals of what they're doing and the perception of it have changed. >> i think that's the market getting the stock back up in the mid-50s. part of that redefinition of what this company is. >> yahoo!, underperformance and big turnover have some saying the ceo should be out. suntrust bob peck had a note out today with the candidates for position. we don't need to go through them but he says if not marissa, who? >> i know sandburg was there. i don't see her doing that. why leave facebook going to this mess? more importantly, it's not like an industrial company or known type of company. you come in, cut your backs, and these companies, we saw with twitter, a new ceo doesn't necessarily mean the future's brighter. >> i know you're not optimistic on this. >> obviously partial to some of
the names on that list. russ levinson certainly jump also out. i'm with steve, i don't understand why -- what would someone else do with essentially an asset that's just not that attractive anymore? i know from the banner head business, i have one of the biggest blogs in the country for finance, it's not good. it doesn't matter how many pages you have this month or next month. cpms are only heading in one direction. >> sheryl sandburg, ed rosensweig, levenson, are the names being bandied about. by the way, ross levenson will be here on thursday. you'll hear from him directly. where he sees the tech landscape heading. obviously mentioned for things like twitter. now his name comes up again with yahoo!. we're looking forward to speaking with levenson directly about all of that. coming up, when wall street analysts bail on a name, is that your cue to buy? it's hard to find time to keep up on my shows.
that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhere. ready or not, here i come! (whispers) now hide-and-seek time can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time. here i come! can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. all right. we want to show you the halftime leaderboard. there it is. josh brown in first place up 12% is his portfolio. followed by joe terranova, stephanie link, jim, and jon najarian. pete is still in last down 6.5%. josh, you own cme. that's the one we're talking about because you think it's one of the better stocks to play in a rising rate environment which
we think may happen in a couple weeks. >> it's really interesting. cme has an almost perfect correlation to the yield index for both the five-year and the ten-year on a trailing 30-day basis, and really this is a really good reason. about 100% of all the interest rate futures that trade trade on a cme exchange and if rates do go up at some point in my lifetime, this will be one of the ways you're really levered to that, the trading activity, the increased commissionable business that happens there. the other thing that's interesting is it's a giant financial company but it's not a bank. trades about a million and a half shares a day and it's a big enough market cap that just about any hedge fund could take a position and have it actually matter. citadel has been buying it and i think there's a lot of room if this things takes out 100 bucks which has been resistance all year, could get some momentum players interested in the stock, too. so i think it's really
interesting. i think it's going to help my portfolio on the show head into year end strongly. >> i think it makes all kinds of sense but it's a financial company the same way visa is a financial company which means it's really not. it's just a platform company which is one reason people like it. >> you say buy the banks. >> i'm not saying don't buy cme, it makes sense but i think you will see an immediate reaction from the banks. we've already seen it before hand. >> that was going to be my follow-up question. you would expect the banks to run up already -- >> and they have. >> in what appears to be a highly choreographed, hello, we're probably going to go in december. >> schwab is really -- schwab is like a trillion dollars in money markets earning nothing and the leverage there is enormous. we shouldn't be thinking as much about maybe bank of america. it's not going to make as big of a move. >> schwab has -- lpl is another one where there are some activists going on with nick mcguire. i think you can look at those.
>> let's talk about some under the radar stock picks. mike santoli has a shopping list of stocks that have been out of favor on wall street. maybe ripe for a turnaround. whaet at the top? >> 15 or 17 stocks. these are down 10% this year and also the sell side has relatively weak views on them, basically fewer than 30% buy ratings. you have fossil from retail. that might be a broken -- >> hammered, down 65% year-to-date. >> other retailers like bad, bath & beyond. >> whole foods. >> whole foods. what you have is fallen angels where you have some capitulation by the sell side and arguably some of them looking relatively cheap. not right here on this list but in the rest of the list you also have a ton of industrials globally exposed industrials, some of them also high quality. it's a starting point for deciding what are some contrarian buys if we're going into a year where the market is not strictly about only ten growth stocks. >> it's a good starting point to
have a conversation. >> fossil is fighting for the most highly contested real estate in the world. you're up against the fitbits and apple and all the swiss watchmakers which are getting hammered. they're going to want to come back and take share. they might cut prices. i don't see where fossil fits in. might be the most aptly named stock in the market right now. >> what about whole foods? >> it's an interesting one, but you have seen encroachment on their territory that they own which is organics. >> it's down 42% year-to-date. >> i think to me that's a private equity play, not necessarily a public equity play. but nonetheless, you know, it's a quality operation but, again, it could really fall. >> you can read the rest of mikes piece on cnbc.com/pro and he will have a new article every monday. three hours left in the trading day. your game plan for the second half is coming up next. plus kobe bryant announcing
his plan to retire this year. laker fans jane wells has mixed feelings about it. >> i have always said mixed feelings about kobe, it was always his way or the highway but he's one of the most exciting player for years. one team for 20 years and in his style, he's going out his way. the black mamba and money when we come back. understands the life behind it. for those who've served and the families who've supported them, we offer our best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. ♪
legendary lake he is guard kobe bryant announcing he will retire from the nba at the end of the 2015-2016 season. jane wells is live in l.a. with a look at the financial impact his retirement could have. jane? >> he is the highest paid player in the nba and he says it's time to go. kobe announcing via a poem online he is out at the end of the season. lakers ticket prices immediately spiked. tickets for the last game of the season already sold out and the nose bleed seats, the cheapest ones are reselling for over $500. >> how many kids can say growing
up, you know, that you turned pro and you're going to play for your favorite team in the world and spend your entire career there? it's been a dream. >> even though with the worst record in the western conference, forbes calls the lakers the most valuable nba team. kobe going will free up $25 million in payroll. he probably earned twice that in endorsements. he was exonerated of rape charges and still had sponsors stick with him. i asked him two years ago what he wanted to do after basketball? do you want to get in management, ownership afterwards? >> no, i enjoy creating? >> the movie business, that kind of creating? >> no, no, no. product, branding, story telling. >> and fans at last night's game got sign eed copies of the lett. >> 20 years with one team. >> maybe kobe to yahoo!. >> jane wells, thanks so much.
jane live in l.a. we have three hours left in the trading day. we have ten seconds left. amazon, we didn't talk about it much, up 120% year-to-date. more room? >> i think there's more room. >> more room? >> maybe next year. >> let's talk about next year. >> that does it for us. good to see you. "power" begins now. scott, gentlemen, thank you very much. welcome to "power lunch," everybody. along with mandy drury, i'm tyler mathisen. the final push is on to meet year-end targets. are we setting up for a december rally or a december disappointment? and a potentially landmark kmps on climate change under way in paris. demonstrators hitting the streets. they want more and they want it faster. what are world leaders prepared to do? and shopping for answers. 'tis the season to compare shopping seasons. how is this one shaping up so far? we'll