Skip to main content

tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  November 30, 2015 3:00pm-5:01pm EST

3:00 pm
>> it is a big week. ecb, opec, you name it, it happens this week. big week for the markets. >> you are going to apparently crochet me some kind of clothing. i caught that. >> just wait until the holidays. >> thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. >> "closing bell" starts right now. hi, everybody, welcome to the "closing bell." to close out this month of november i'm kelly evans here at the new york stock exchange. >> i know. tomorrow is december 1st. it's up believable. i'm bill griffeth. yes, the last trading day of the month already. retail stocks getting hit on this cyber monday. we are going to talk about whether more online sales may just lead to more consumers returning items this holiday season and what that means for the retail bottom line. >> meanwhile, goldman sachs top economist will join us on a first on cnbc to talk about how
3:01 pm
many rate hikes evening will come the next year and whether he sees a global turn around. >> if you're betting on a global turn around we will tell you which beaten down stocks could go from zero to hero next year and tell you whether facebook and netflix could flat line. we will have mike santoli on that coming up. >> plus the new reports says wells fargo sales practices are under investigation. we will bring you the details ahead on the "closing bell." >> let's start with this cyber monday story. courtney reagan is at one of amazon's largest fulfillment centers in the whole country where i hear it's kind of loud. what are you seeing there? >> i'm actually standing right underneath a conveyor belt but it has a very busy day here at amazon if you will i willment center in new jersey. last year cyber monday was amazon's peak shopping day for the year with more than 43 million items sent out worldwide and the online ba home aught
3:02 pm
thinks it can beat that number this year. amazon says black from i this year was stronger than black friday was last year in terms of total units sold and this if you will i willment center has been working nearly around the clock, there are 4,000 employees here for this peak season. they are picking, packing and sending items from blankets to headphones and pillows and everything in between. we have seen them all on these conveyor belts. adobe says online sales are on track to hit $3 billion today. if that happens that will be the first time we have hit that number on a cyber monday. target is one of the retailers that we might assume is having a strong cyber monday, at least as strong for some period of time until its website got overloaded with the amount of traffic and it became unavailable for some users. at least during some part of the morning today. a key for online retailers of course is to hang on to all of these sales that they are'd giving today.
3:03 pm
numerous studies will show that the rate of return when ordering online is upwartds of 30%. 40% for soft goods like clothing and other items for your home. in brick and mortar stores the return rate is 9%. now, it spiked across the board during the rest of the season, that's an added cost for retailers when those returns come back in and those sales go below what they initially thought they would have been. >> 30 to 40% is extremely high. for the most part are retailers swallowing that cost and is that another thing to watch out for on the ultimate report? >> because consumers want it shipped to them free and want to have the ability to have a free return back, that is a cost that many of these retailers are absorbing. what many brick and mortar retailers are hoping that if you take advantage of ordering online and need to return then you will go to their store to return. there is a much stronger chance that you will walk out with something else when you return
3:04 pm
that item, the conversion rates are much higher when you walk back into the store. so that's a cost that retailers are going to need to figure out down the road to really make this model more efficient when it comes to getting us packages fast and for very low prices because nobody wants to pay for shipping anymore. >> that's for sure. you know, i know you said you have a conveyor belt above you but it sounds like a drone hovering there. amazon unveiled that new prototype of drones for its primary service, they released that video of what they said was a drone doing a delivery service. they are just itching to get this thing approved by regulators, aren't they? >> yeah, they absolutely are. you know, one of amazon's executives was here today and we asked him about it and he said, look, we are ready to go, we put that video out to show everybody we are ready when the regulators are ready for us. i think it is something that amazon is really itching to offer for consumers but we know there's a lot of hurdles to get there. >> if you see them again courtney i'd love to know about
3:05 pm
battery life. from all we've experienced talking to different people working on drones that is the number one issue and they can't stay aloft all that long. >> that would be embarrassing, the battery die in the middle of a delivery of some kind. >> absolutely. >> and dangerous. >> courtney, thank you so much. >> since drone deliveries are not a reality just yet fedex expects cyber monday to be the first of its three holiday peak sales this season. morgan, this is the peak of its holiday shipping, not its sales today, is that right? >> that's right. i've got to tell you how do i follow up drones? they are so cool looking. okay. i'm going to stay. it may not look all that pussy right here now, we are in between sortings, but make no mistake this fedex facility in the bronx is handling tens of thousands of packages today and that activity is expected to ramp up this evening as the first of the cyber monday orders begin to come through.
3:06 pm
so e tailers and retailers like amazon, like target began rolling out their online deals days ahead of black friday and for that reason fedex says the peak shipping season is off to a solid start. >> the entire season is surging, but some of the specific days don't fall exactly as we would protect, but that's why it's important that we have the flexibility in our networks and the best understanding possible of what our customers need so we can be ready. >> so to flex that network fedex has invested $1.6 billion this fiscal year into its ground operations, it's hired more than 55,000 seasonal workers, it's sorting packages seven days a week during the holidays and it's running expanded express operations. so fedex hopes all of this will translate into a record 317 million shipments between thanksgiving and christmas eve. that would represent a 12% increase over last year with an extra shipping day thrown in there. and it's not the only company
3:07 pm
with a bullish forecast going into the holiday season, both ups and the u.s. postal service are forecasting double digit percentage increases in terms of package volume this holiday season. of course, we're seeing all of that as folks increasingly turn to the internet to do their shopping. guys, back over to you. >> great stuff. morgan, thank you. i think all of them will deliver on sundays this holiday season, too. >> wow. working around the clock. >> i think i'd work at the fedex place, it's a lot quieter than amazon. let's get to our "closing bell" exchange for this monday. last day of the month, jim lowell from adviser investments is with us, we call him sarge, steven guilfoyle at post 9 and rick santelli checks in from chicagoland as well. sarge, what a month it has been. a lot of downs and ups and when all is said and done the dow -- i know you follow the s&p but i'm one of those that follows the dow, it's going to finish right about where it started the
3:08 pm
month. >> it turns out that the russell 2,000 was the winner this month. small caps have finally taken the lead. when small caps take the lead they usually keep the lead for a little while. i'm thinking it might be all right to get behind a russell 2,000 trade for a month or two. >> would you endorse that, jim? >> we certainly like the mid small cap space, russell 2,000 represented in our view as a low price stock who continues to outperform peer group reasonably well. it was also healthcare in particular, biotechnologies that clearly staged a rebound in the month of november, those are not just mid but also large cap lower risk higher return names. >> and, rick, we've talked about the flattening of the yield curve getting ready for a fed rate hike. the ten year i was noticing on a month to date basis that is going to be about where it started the month, the twos and fives will be much higher. >> actually great place to start, bill. twos are up 20 basis points for
3:09 pm
the month of november, 5s are up 14, tens of up 7 and 30s are up about 6. there is your flattening. the fact that short rates are higher than long rates. today a lot of the talk is about china and what the imf did, but for a different reason. everybody says things like, you know, i know china's gdp is much lower than the 10% it was not that many years ago but we would kill for their current gdp, 6.5, 7, whatever it is. but we need to apply that same logic to everybody today. after we look at thursday and black friday, brick and mortar, $12.1 billion according to shopping track, shopper track, and that's down a bit from 12.3, but it still has a 12 handle against the online which is about $4.5 billion versus $4.3 billion last year. so my point is from a rate of change we could see what happened with china, we could see that it's going online, but to diminish this and say, well, that's it, it's all online, the
3:10 pm
number still bigger and i think that we need to walk that balance a little more carefully. >> speaking of balance, sarge, we also turn our attention to several other areas, moving markets around this week, including oil. we've got a big opec meeting coming up and different things happening on that front. where do you think crude is heading from here? what are the important levels to watch? >> you know, there was a large short position at $40 and i don't think it's completely washed out yet. we got a little short squeeze when saudi arabia opened their mouth last week. i think depending on what comes out of this opec meeting if saudi arabia goes their own way, does not listen to venezuela or iran i think we have a chance at another shot at that resistance level, but if it doesn't go that way we're going to test 38 and when we test 38 if it breaks we'll go hard. >> just imagine what gasoline is going to cost then. >> what did jackie say the latest was $2.04. >> nationally and probably heading to $2 nationally. jim, which sectors are you betting on right now?
3:11 pm
there's a lot of people looking at consumer-related stocks going into the holiday season and maybe each beyond. are you in that camp or where are you looking to make money right now? >> no question, bill, we are focused on the strengths of the u.s. consumer. that means we're focused on the jobs market, income, savings rate. stocks, company sectors that relate to the u.s. consumers are going to farewell. we cast our eye across the pond, with he like europe in the hands of jed wise, manager of fidelity management growth. we think europe continues to present evidence of slow growth not no growth, with a safety net underneath it creating the kind of environment where stocks ought to return reasonably well over a meaningful time period. >> finally, we do, rick, have a lot of fed speak this week and that jobs report that was mentioned on friday morning. what do you think is going to be more important? >> you know, i think it's going to be all about friday's jobs number. if it's strong, even average
3:12 pm
number, the way the market is pricing this in it will be fate a come ply. if it's on the weak side it throws some -- the 11th read, six of them below 50, some of the respondents scratched their heads, purely from their perspective they don't have a good argument for the fed to tighten. we're right back where we started. the rate is too low but the time isn't a good time. how it turns out we will have to rate and see. >> indeed we will. gentlemen, thank you. >> jim lowell, steven guilfoyle, rick santelli. the dow has been moving lower, it's now down about 50 points, the s&p down about 6, the nasdaq as you can see there down 15. >> coming up, goldman sachs chief economist yann is with us. he spells out the firm's outlook for the next year economically. we will find out how many times he sees the fed hiking interest rates in 2016. also ahead, why this year's losers could turn out to be next year's hottest stocks. mike santoli is here, he is
3:13 pm
going to explain which ones could be poised for a big turn around come 2016. other wireless carriers make families share data switch to t-mobile now and get 4 lines with up 6gb each. just $30 bucks a line and no sharing. plus get the samsung galaxy s6 for $0 upfront and $10 bucks a month at t-mobile.
3:14 pm
3:15 pm
3:16 pm
welcome back. as we get into the thick of the holiday shopping season lulu lemon is falling. sbr slashing its price target to $55. also cutting its rating from underperform to market perform sighting heavy discounting. let's check other moves. under armour lower after piper jaffry cut its price target from $88 to $97, the firm maintaining its neutral rating but does the high inventory levels could spark discounts in the weeks ahead. >> and fit bit has been upgraded to overweight to equal weight at bark clays, the analysts say that fit bit's selloff is overdone. he expects new product launches, corporate wellness deals and ma inimprovements to act as meaningful catalysts. i expect them to take it out of my drawer. >> if you global economy sees a turn around next year some of this year's big lovers in the market could become big winners.
3:17 pm
mike santoli is here at post 9. welcome, mike. >> we should just say these are not picks you're making here. >> no, not outright picks. they are kind of a -- they are raw material for picks, let's say. it's a screen of stocks that have been hit pretty hard this year and also that the sell side, that wall street analysts haven't given up on. i've basically screened for stocks down 10% year to date and also that analysts -- fewer than 30% of all analysts covering the stocks have a buy on it. that's usually the precursor for saying maybe a stock washed out, overdone to the down side. >> some of those examples include caterpillar, deere, but i was interested to see benz make the list. >> frank listen resources, this is one that really didn't fit the theme, the main themes were beaten up retailers, we all know that story and those global industrials like you mentioned, but ben has a large presence in emerging market funds, it's not a dominant business but the stock has traded as if it's all
3:18 pm
a play on emerging markets and that's really not the case, it's cheap, it used to be considered one of the premium asset managers, of course, other challenges actively managed funds not seeing great inflows, all the rest of it. it struck me if you think the emerging markets firm up, if you actually think that maybe investors will shovel more money into active strategies over time it seems like this is a decent play. it's always been considered a well managed company. >> overall this category in industrials, what catalyst would you expect is going to spark a revival for these guys? >> that's obviously the big question. it's clearly the global manufacturing numbers, so the pmis of all the big regions, probably would have to firm up, and then you have would have to have a fed rate increase and have the emerging markets not fall apart, essentially, not have the dollar surgery to huge new heights, that would pressure the emerging markets, but ultimately the makings of a turn around are low expectations >> there is a fine line they have to walk. >> there's always a reason that they got down to these prices >> by the way, if people wanted to stay more domestic there is
3:19 pm
still a couple of interests plays, whole foods and bed bath and beyond into they are no longer killing the category, might be going the other way. they are good companies, high return companies over time. what's their exit, exactly how do they figure this out in the big physical retail space, that's a big question, but they are at least cosmetically looking cheap right now. >> mike, thank you. >> i feel like i just watched a barron cover story being written as we went here. >> mike santoli. >> thanks. >> head straight over to cnbc pro. >> are we going to break already? the dow is down 56 points, been kind of a quiet session, lack of volatility but there is a lot to come with economic reports and of course that will be capped off by friday's jobs report. >> up next one of our favorite things that we do, main street investors will tell us what they're biology and selling on this final trading day of the
3:20 pm
month. >> the federal reserve board approves measures to curb it's emergency lending powers. how could that affect future financial crises? stick around, steve liesman has a special report coming up on "closing bell."
3:21 pm
financial crises?
3:22 pm
history day for china's currency, the international monetary fund giving it the green light as one of the main
3:23 pm
central bank reserves one. >> elevating the yuan to reserve status is seen as a stamp of approval of the chinese central bank reform. deutsch -- as a result of today's decision analysts expect a gradual increase in holding of yuan assets. $350 billion over the next five years, analysts say the ims endorsement has important implications for china's financial reform going forward. there were concerns that china was moving away from a free market model when it intervened during the recent stock market tumble over the summer. further moves to liberal lies its financial markets could be a boone for the banks. bank of china and chinese construction bank. lastly if you are worried about another sharp devaluation of the chinese currency spooking global markets as it did in early
3:24 pm
august you may be in luck. a range of analysts including the one at deutsch bank say there is a higher chance that central bank will keep its currency stable only gradually weakening their currency if at all. today's move obviously seen as politically important but investors keeping an eye on it as well. >> plus there is a party at sara eisen's house because of it. >> absolutely. >> our currency -- >> and also looking to see which banks are going to be able to handle changing all those chinese currency here in new york. time to check in on main street. how is the retail investing repairing for a potential rate hike and what's ahead come 2016? >> it is time for our monthly retail investor round table. ben banks is a student at north carolina university and we've got ian wishengrad who is an entrepreneur. ian, you are a new face on this. you use the old adage, invest in what you know or love. >> yes.
3:25 pm
>> you are heavily in technology. >> yes. >> you are not worried about that. >> i consider technology the future of the world. i know that my portfolio on a traditional sense you look tech heavy but i see what's happening with my attention span, i give more it to social media, i use more apples makes cars, google is getting into other things and i love the leaders of these companies and i find i use more and more of their products every day. i'm long where we're headed. >> so you're long -- very long in names like facebook, apple and google. ben, meanwhile, you're looking at names including american homes for rent, continental and avago. tell us about those. >> yes. all three different industries, but all three have the same general pattern that i look for. i am a technical trader so i focus on the stock chart primarily and all three have long consolidation bases that are showing relative strength on the daily chart within a larger yearly consolidation. so that's what i look for primarily and each one is the same for american homes, looking
3:26 pm
over 130 hopefully gets to 140, continental resources over $37, probably extends to $40 and for the last one, avago, gets over $130 quickly goes to $140. >> we've got a short term trader in ben and ian you are a long-term investor. you are going to pie and hold. buy and hold is dead i heard. >> a lot of my friends are in finance. and this is what they do for a living. i think i have a massive unfair advantage when i am a retail investor so i'm afraid to go in there and take tips. >> so you don't worry about the chinese economy, the fed raising rates, the oil production all those things that we talk about here? >> no. then i'd rather not be in at all. if that's the criteria for picking a good company. i think for the same reason we choose the leaders and choose their products and i feel confident when i'm trying to win business from people they're winning business from me.
3:27 pm
>> as mentioned, ben, your approach is quite different. if you're looking at tactical moves it depends a lot on what happens if we have dislocations from the fed and that kind of thing. what's on your radar screen? >> yeah. as i said, it's probably primarily a three to five-day trade time frame that i'm looking at. so i usually don't hold for more than that. but the fed moves i can quickly navigate those regardless of what the market does. as for the s&p 500 looking at the spider etf. as long as the hold is in the short term 20850, likely will go higher later this week and below 207 intermediate terms i'd probably start to take things off the table and reassess things from there. >> anybody buying gold? do you care? >> no. no. >> that's supposed to be a long-term hold. >> my understanding of gold is when the economy seems shaky and going down gold is a sure bet but in the interim the interest
3:28 pm
rates are low so i'm in equities. >> ben. >> i'm definitely not buying any gold anytime soon. the down trend has been yearly. i just don't see any reason for me to get behind it right here. >> without being uncouth before we go because your approach is so different and old school, if i may, how are you doing? how does this work out for you? is your strategy fundamentally a profitable one? >> yeah. in the year of 2014 i earned 18%, beat the market by a few percent there, and this year i'm up just a small 5%, but we've still got a month left and the market has been a bit nor difficult to navigate this year, but in general it's consistently profitable. >> i know some hedge funds that would like to be up 5% this year. >> i'm open. >> thanks, guys. thanks for joining us today. >> let's get to eamon javers. we have a news alert out of washington. what's happening? >> the eps is issuing long
3:29 pm
delayed rules on bio fuels consumption in the nation's fuel supply. the new ruling just out within the past couple minutes is going to require 18.1 billion gallons of renewables to be mixed into the nation's fuel supply in 2016. now, that is up from what they had proposed earlier this year, but interestingly it's down significantly from what congressman dated back in 2007 when they originally envisioned a figure of 22.25 billion gallons by 2016. all of this is due of course to the changing picture of gasoline, gasoline consumption, pricing and demand here in the united states over the past couple of years since that 2007 law was passed but the news here, 18.1 billion gallons of renewables will be required to be blended into the nation's fuel supply next year, kelly. >> fascinating. it ties together so much different strands from big corn, big sugar, iowa politics. you name it and -- >> and you can imagine there was
3:30 pm
a lot of lobbying here in washington over what this figure would come out to be. >> exactly. >> keystone pipeline, right? >> you name it. thanks, eamon. >> you bet. >> time for a cnbc news update with sue herrera. >> following the terror attacks in paris britain's foreign minister says he is confident his government will vote to begin air strikes in syria. the issue has divided members of parliament where the left leaning labor of party has been reluctant to join the u.s. coalition. a hiker has died from her injuries. thomas mountain and his wife were climbing mt. jefferson in oregon when he fell through a crevasse. popular kid toy maker v-tech says the personal information of 5 million customers may have been stolen by hackers. the breach does not include credit card information but it does include names, birth dates and genders of children users.
3:31 pm
and it is the largest red kettle donation in minneapolis history. the salvation army says an anonymous donor dropped a $500,000 check into the kettle outside a grocery store over the weekend, that's a new record for the begin cities area. i think it's probably a new record for most cities. >> i would think so. >> that's a cnbc news update. >> what happened on this date in 1981? >> gosh, i don't know. what happened, bill? >> come on. >> no, come on. >> work with me here. >> you tell me. >> we started the precursor to cnbc it was called financial news network. november 30th, 1981 and sue and i were there that day. >> that's right. >> happy anniversary, kid. >> happy anniversary. love ya'. >> we started right out of junior high obviously. >> we did. absolutely. as a matter of fact, we had -- they didn't want us to start because we were, oh, i don't know, 12, 14, something like that, bill. >> we didn't look old enough to be credible on air. thanks, sue. >> it was a great ride. >> it was.
3:32 pm
it has been. it still is. >> it still is. >> love it. you remember that day. >> i do. like it was yesterday. you do, too? >> yeah. 30 minutes to go into the close here. let's check in with markets. a little while ago the dow was moving lower, it's down 62 points now, the s&p down 7 and s&p down 17. we will come back with a leading trader telling us what he's watching when we come back. >> goldman sachs chief chis january hatzius will join us. find out which parts of the economy he thinks could spear head next year's growth when we come back. td ameritrade, they're always working. yup, we're constantly making thinkorswim better.
3:33 pm
like a custom screener on your desktop, that updates to all your devices. and you can share it with one click. wow. how do you find the time to do all this? easy. we combined every birthday and holiday into one celebration. (different holidays being shouted) back to work, guys! i love this times of year. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. if ynow's the time to get your ducks in a row. to learn about medicare, and the options you have. you see, medicare doesn't cover everything - only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so if 65 is around the corner, think about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, they help cover some of what medicare doesn't pay. and could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. so don't wait. call to request your free decision guide.
3:34 pm
and gather the information now to help you choose a plan later. these types of plans let you pick any doctor or hospital that takes medicare patients. and there's a range of plans to choose from, depending on you needs and your budget. so if you're turning 65 soon, call now and get started. because the time to think about today. go long.
3:35 pm
less than half an hour to go here. i'm joined on the floor by kenny poll carrie. it looks like we're going out with red arrows. what does that portend about the beginning of december tomorrow? >> today is the last day of the month, they're looking to close
3:36 pm
the market right in here, which is flat on the month, it will be flat on the month. we've got an early indication of sell market on close, you didn't see the market really react. 900 million for sale on the bell as of right now, my sense it will probably pair off and they'll close it here. that being said december starts a whole new month, i think the market is expecting the fed to raise rates, i think the market will be disappointed now if we get to this point and janet decides it's not right. we've been talking about it way too long, they've gotten everyone ready for it. i suspect they will raise rates and the market will respond in kind. i don't expect the market will get upset about it at all, they will be more upset about they don't. >> we look to friday, the jobs number, do you think a strong number gets a positive reaction or -- >> i think we're expecting 2 hub, i don't think we will get the number we got last month and i think you would have to see the number sub 100 for it to be any concern. anywhere in between there i think the market is expecting
3:37 pm
that's what it's kind of going to be and the fed will move forward and that's about right. >> retail we are seeing some sogginess today. >> weakness again. i think the whole black friday thing and the cyber monday it's all overplayed. the sales have been since october. so this whole black friday thing is frustrating to a lot of people, it's lost its luster. people are concerned over what's happening to margins. lots of people went out shopping but what are retailers doing to create that en sightment? >> fair enough. thank you. kenny pull carrie. >> you get back to your online shopping, ken. >> we are getting closer to the part of a new year. our next guest says domestic demand and consumer spending will be the main driver of our economy. first on cnbc we welcome back goldman sachs chief economist jan hatzius. you think the fed next year raises rates one time each
3:38 pm
quarter. really? snool yeah, that's all baseline. i think that's the most likely. >> a quarter point each time? >> a quarter point every quarter. it's a straightforward forecast in an environment where the economy does more or less what it has been doing in terms of growth, nothing too different. >> does that fit the criteria that janet yellen and stand fisher and others have set where they promised that it will be a gradual, very, very grat ul rise in rates over time? >> yeah, i mean, i think for one thing i wouldn't say they promised necessarily, i think they expressed an expectation but i don't think there's a commitment there to do anything other than do, you know, what seems to be the right thing given the economy. that's one point. the other point i think is that going by about half as much, half as quickly as you've gone in past cycles to see that seems pretty gradual. >> you have positive views on what's happening with the u.s. economy and labor market in here. i will just note this hope in a
3:39 pm
way that has been dashed many years as growth has been a little disappointing. what do you see as the positive story about this recovery? >> i mean, on gdp that's right. expectations have been disappointed year after year after year. in 2015 was no different from prior years. but on the labor market we're actually seeing the opposite, if anything. more improvement than expected for at least the last three years in a row and, i mean, i think there are some question marks around participation and things like that, but overall when i look at the united states or, in fact, advanced economies more generally it does seem to me that the labor markets actually improved a lot. >> and that's why, i guess, you then see increased consumer spending, internal demand here in the united states. does that mean we will finally hit the fed's 2% inflation target or will the dollar trump that if it continues to get stronger? >> we do think that consumer spend something going to grow
3:40 pm
although i don't think it's going to grow as quickly in 2015. 2015 was a great year for consumer spending for some reasons that will still be with us, maybe a better labor market but some reasons that are one off, namely the big drop in energy prices. we can't repeat that in 2016, but i do think consumer spending a going to be good if not as great as this year. on inflation i'd say some inflation, we have it going from 1.3% to 1.6 if so there's still some ways below the fed's target. >> what are the biggest risks to your view for next year and to what extent are you concerned about business investment or corporate profits? >> i mean, on the growth side the biggest risk is probably the international side and big moves in the currency that lead to a further tightening in financial conditions that would be at the top of my list. especially given the divergence between the u.s. and europe and
3:41 pm
japan. on the other hand i think domestically between the different sectors i'd say i'm reasonably relaxed about most of them from a growth perspective. we don't have, you know, such strong numbers, basically 2.25%, more of the same. profits is a what different issues u, more important for the equity market. we do think margins looks m quite high, if anything they will go down in coming years. we don't really expect that necessarily for next year, but looking out three to five years i would expect some -- >> as we know the fed gets ready to raise rates as the ecb wants to lower them further and they are already dealing with some negative rates over there. does that continue? what do you see in europe? >> we do expect easing from the ecb this week obviously as pretty much everybody and so over the next two, three weeks we are very likely to see, you know, further divergence. beyond that i think from the u.s. side we will see further
3:42 pm
divergence. whether there are additional easing steps from the ecb i think is more uncertain. that's going to depend on, you know, perhaps in the european economy so under our forecast not necessarily, but nevertheless the gap between short term rates in the u.s. and europe is going to go up and i think that is going to mean upward pressure on the dollar. >> well, a stealthy path to full employment, we are on the precipice of a different interest rate environment than we have had in some time. jan, thanks for joining us. >> 18 minutes left in the trading session. the dow still lower, we are down 59 points, here at the s&p down 7, nasdaq down a 14. >> up next, does wells fargo push for employees to meet their sales quotas go too far. what's what the san francisco fed is investigating. jane wells has the story. >> a leading amazon analyst will explain why he thinks amazon's package deliveries by drone could be more of a long-term vision than near term reality.
3:43 pm
that's coming up.
3:44 pm
3:45 pm
welcome back. keeping an eye on this market into the close here which is under some pressure, but let's take a look at biotechs, that's where we are seeing declines that ibb nasdaq biotech remax.
3:46 pm
they are all down in the range of 3% today. >> very volatile recently. a potential black eye for wells fargo, regulators are probing whether its sales practices push employees too hard to feet quotas. jane wells exploring that story for us. >> this lawsuit filed last may by the los angeles city attorney's office has expanded to the federal level according to the "wall street journal." the lawsuit claims wells fargo employees are under so much pressure to add new products to each customer's account that they allegedly do things that are unlawful, like adding new accounts or credit lines without a customer's consent and still charging them fees. now, the journal spoke to current and former employees who did not admit to adding a accounts without a customer's knowledge but did say they felt pressured to do just about anything to reach the company's goal of eight so-called solutions for a customer. some claim they resorted to
3:47 pm
pitching wells fargo solutions outside a blood bank or mention land consulate. the l.a. city attorney's office tells me its still waiting for its first hearing in the ways, it's seeking $2500 per customer, i have no idea how many claims it's claiming but the office of comptroller of the currency and san francisco federal reserve are investigating as well. shares didn't do a whole lot, they are decelerating going into the close. neither of those federal institutions would comment. the bank told me it is disputing these allegations and that the -- it is focused on, quote, the best interests of customers. guys, back to you. >> it's interesting, jane. i remember obviously when this story first broke in the l.a. times a couple of years ago and maybe for that reason in january when -- i'm a wells fargo, you know, depositor, so in january when i needed a mortgage i figured i'd give them a heads up and they would probably sell me pretty hard and the guy told me frankly i could probably get a
3:48 pm
better rate somewhere else. i know that's just one anecdote that doesn't amount to a hill of beans necessarily, but when it comes to these allegations i do wonder how far they are going to have to go to prove that this was systemic and that these employees were breaking the law. >> especially when you consider this is probably -- you're going to see this normally in other banks as well, especially in a tough economic environment, the pressure is always going to be there on employees to sell up, right? >> yes, but if they're breaking the law and opening accounts, that's how the l.a. city attorney said they found out about it because people were calling in saying i have fees for things i didn't open. i don't know what's going on. l.a. is focused on this city. the journal article indicates some of these former employees say it was more widespread, particularly in the west and southwestern states. the people talking to the journal did not admit that they broke the law, but that they were under tremendous pressure, which the bank is saying is not
3:49 pm
true. >> we do know we will hear much more now that they're taking a close look into it. jane, thank you so much. >> phantom accounts are never good. >> don't miss an exclusive interview with wells fargo chairman and ceo john stumpf. they will clearly have a lot to talk about during that interview. >> she could be a before and after on that story, with ten minutes to go, keeping an eye on these markets we're closing out the month and the dow losing 16 points, the s&p down 7.5. >> up next, why microsoft could be a growth stock for 2016. stay tuned. it's hard to find time to keep up on my shows.
3:50 pm
3:51 pm
that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhere. ready or not, here i come! (whispers) now hide-and-seek time can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time. here i come! can't find you anywhere!
3:52 pm
don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. eight minutes left in the trading session with the dow a little lower as we close out the month of november. joining us david pearl from epic investment partners. we have had a good year again. what is it, six years now in a row. so going into 2016 you have to put money to work here. are you worried about what's going to happen in the market? are we due for an even bigger correction? >> we have a changing dynamic. from 2012 to 2015 quantitative
3:53 pm
easing really drove big returns in the market, pes expanded from 11 times earnings to 17. now we are going to see the opposite effect as rates starting to up, but the good news is we have a sustainable recovery in the u.s., we never had excesses, we are finally getting a little wage growth, employment is getting good so consumers are spending. now the next leg of the market is driven by earnings rather than pe and valuation. you have to find companies that are going to grow faster than their come patriots at reasonable valuation. >> microsoft and morgan stanley. >> yeah. well, microsoft is a transformation, people have a stigma when it comes to microsoft that they are yesterday's technology, google surpassed them, facebook, but microsoft is the second biggest cloud company, they are growing the cloud business at over -- about 100% a year and focusing on enterprise rather than consumers. they've really done a very good job of doing this profitably.
3:54 pm
in fact, if you compare them to amazon the biggest cloud company, amazon's valuation is five times that of microsoft and microsoft earns much more money. so maybe the valuation differential gets a little narrower over the next year, plus microsoft probably does get revalued because the growth rate increases >> what about with morgan stanley. >> they are another transformation. five years ago they and goldman looked just alike but now, in fact, today's news they are getting rid of a lot of their trading operation and becoming the world's biggest money manager and growth manager. the singular issue for this year when the fed raises rates they go from losing money on money market funds to making money because they can charge you a small fee. so they are well positioned for the market to go up because their fees go up, for the economy to do better because people are richer and for rates to go up.
3:55 pm
and the valuation is 12 times earnings, 11 times free cash flow, very inexpensive stocks. >> we have had real candidates for turn around for 2016 on this inappropriately. >> thank you. appreciate it. >> david pearl joining us. >> we are coming back with the closing countdown, wrap things up and see how we did this month. >> then we will discuss if amazon's drone video is a pr stunt or something that will become a reality. my language skills, i've read all of your lyrics. you've read all of my lyrics? i can read 800 million pages per second. that's fast. my analysis shows your major themes are that time passes. and love fades. that sounds about right. i have never known love. maybe we should write a song together. i can sing. you can sing? do be bop. be bop do. do be do be do. do do do be do.
3:56 pm
3:57 pm
when you're not confident your company's data is secure, the possibility of a breach can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at at&t we monitor our network traffic so we can see things others can't. mitigating risks across your business. leaving you free to focus on what matters most.
3:58 pm
all right. we've got about two minutes left. time for the countdown. bob pisani is with me here. we have bob sag get coming up next hour, it's a long story. let's review, bob. >> go ahead. >> the markets and how they did in the last month or so. it's been a round turn for the dow. >> yeah. >> big decline in the middle of the month, came back again. we will finish with a slight gain here. >> flat. >> virtually flat, though. crude oil has taken a big hit, down 10% for the month. in fact, we went from the high end of the trading range we've seen close to $50 down to the $40 range. in fact, we've reached that briefly. gold, bad month. >> fourth time this year they've tried to buy oil stocks at the bottom. >> gold down 6% plus for the month and the ten year as we
3:59 pm
mentioned up, what, about 7 basis points for the month. 2s and 5s were up even more as we saw a flattening of the yield curve. they can show you the month to date -- it would be for the month sectors and how they performed. all you need to know is financials did the best, utilities did the worst. >> and telecom. >> as they get ready for the fed increase. >> as we saw yields come up just a little bit but not a lot. i was quite surprised banks did well because you would have thought they would have needed a little bit more of a boost to do well. >> right. >> just a modest move up in yields was enough for the banks to do well and a modest move up in yields was enough for welcome and utilities to underperform. you can see stock market moving anticipation of the federal reserve. a number of the chinese stocks are going into the msci index today that trade here in the united states, there is a lot of volume in alibaba, in c trip,
4:00 pm, a number of things happened, we will keep an eye on that after the close. >> u. into, bob. we close out the month of november, the dow down 65 points. they are ringing the bell at the big bell, arch rock, at the nasdaq st. jude's children's hospital. stay tuned for hour number two with the "closing bell" with kelly evans. see you come, kel. thank you, bill. welcome to the "closing bell," everybody, i'm kelly evans. stocks going out with declines here to close out the month, looks like we will stay in positive territory, though. we will keep an eye on that for you. dow down 17 points, 17727 is the level there, declines of .4%, the s&p 500 down nearly half a%, 9 points to 2080 and the nasdaq still down 18 points but above 5100 as we start to look towards december and so much coming up this week, this month. joining today's panel we have our own mike santoli along with cnbc contributor ylan mui from
4:01 pm
the washington post and guy adami joins us as well. mike, to begin with you here, november roughly uncranked for stocks. are we getting to get a santa claus rally? >> traditionally it doesn't come until the final week of december but i do think we're set up okay here even though we have done nothing since november 18th. seven or eight trading sessions we closed at 2080 in the s&p then, usually it doesn't flat line sideways this ways for very long. >> it's a good point and a reminder so many days in a row we have heard stocks drifting, light volume, a littler lack of direction. is that just because of the hole days or is it reflecting a wait and see moment for what could be a huge pivotal point if the federal reserve raises rates? >> it's all of that. this big week it seems like it's going to be maybe some moments of truth for various asset classes, opec, fed, all the rest of it, obviously the jobs report and even beyond that is correct i think besides even of the holiday, within the market a lot of stuff going on, retail
4:02 pm
bouncing and giving some back and all the rest. >> exactly. ee land, on that point, jan ul yachts sees one rate hike per quarter. >> i think a lot of the teams for 2016 are going to start to play out this week. we already saw international validation of the role of china and the global economy. confidence that they can manage that economy, you are also going to see what's going to happen with the ecb, is the fed, is yellen going to lay out a plan for -- and an expectation that rates will rise in december. a lot of the things that we think will shape the markets and shape the economy in 2016 i think you will see them talk about this week in great detail. >> today in the "wall street journal" there is a great look at how negative rates are in european countries.
4:03 pm
as the european moves to cut theirs further into negative territory it will set up a contrast with what's happening in the u.s. >> we talked about that policy divergence, talked about this especially over the summer as it was unclear what was going to happen with greece, the eurozone, but i think that this divergence is the most anticipated moment perhapsn i all of central banking history right now. we have to remember that divergence isn't necessarily a bad things, sometimes policy converges ens is the belong method of monetary policy. you look at what's happening in mexico right now, mexico has said it's likely they are going to have to raise interest rates once the fed moves even though their economy is lagging, even though inflation is at a record low. sometimes convergence is not a good thing. >> on that note, guy, where are you looking in this market and finding opportunity? >> i think mike makes a great point. i read mike's work, he said as the market flat lined usually -- i think what he's saying if i
4:04 pm
can read between the lines is the market doesn't give you a lot of time to buy the low or in this case sell the high. that sets up for another leg to the upside in the market. i think what you're seeing in the commodities, we mentioned oil, i will talk about that. i think there are another leg lower in the commodity. we we look at the ovx, it's flirting with 50 which we haven't.seen for quite some time. that is elevated by mist or cal standards yet the stock seems to be pretty resilient. leg cap names like exxonmobil and con co fill flips in my opinion are ridiculously expensive in this environment at 20 times forward earnings. people are pet betting on the fact that maybe the commodity is bottoming out and maybe there is an opportunity with this. i agree with ylan she talked about divergence being a good thing, i would agree with that. the fed blinked a year or so ago when they talked about the strength of the u.s. dollar. they will continue to get that strength as they rate hike and as the rest of the world,
4:05 pm
specifically europe, goes the other way. >> before i bring you back in on that, let's go back for a moment to the closing levels. it does look like as things shook out we are further in negative territory than we originally thought. dow today has a design of 78 points, that is 0.44%, the s&p nearly 10 points, art cashin mentioned there was $3 billion so sell on the close, 75% of that was going to pair off, but as we close off out the month it's not the first time we have seen declines, getting out of stocks, it's the ninth month in year we have seen this phenomenon. >> it tells you while there has not not been a lot of momentum in terms of flows into stocks. the market has been trading back and forth, the same dollars it seems from one pocket to the other. that theme continues. but i do think you will wake up tomorrow to a lot of people saying yesterday's late decline, month's end mash nation don't worry about it. when you had a flat near going
4:06 pm
into december people will hinge on the seasonal effect to an upside bias. >> we are still well above what the dow needed to hold. all three major averages closing out november with back to back monthly gains. let's get more from bob pisani on the floor to wrap it all up for us. >> the important thing is after a lot of big moves down in the middle of the month we had a nice rally towards the close. basically ended flat for the s&p 500 and the dow, let's not quibble about a very small amount here. take a look at the major sectors and what happened because there were some big disparities in terms of the sectors. financials did better, we saw flattening of the yield curve, not a lot but just the anticipation that the fed might raise interest rates caused particularly regional banks to the move to the upside. that had the opposite effect on telecom and utilities which are interest rate sensitive and they were losers on the month, tech and industrials were mild gainers. a couple surprises in the subsectors biotech had a
4:07 pm
volatile month, but ended up 9%, regional banks were strong, but oil refiners came back a little bit. remember people have tried four times in year to buy oil stocks and oil sensitive times at the bottom for oil, four times generally have lost, but a few oil refiners were up this month, i think that's fairly significant. in terms of sector laggards, retailers are another ugly month down 3%, all of the department stores got killed after their earnings you know that is correct the commodity names in metals did terrible, gold had another difficult be month and solar stocks down about 11% on a global supply gut for them. the dow movers, home depot and anything related to home improvement did well along with banks, jpmorgan no surprise up there, and of course as i mentioned before, verizon and the telecom and utility names generally were on the weak side. here is something interesting. while biotech did well and some of the newer pharmaceuticals did well, old school pharmaceutical
4:08 pm
names, your merck and pfizer generally did not do very well. the good news we're going into that final strong part of the year, december usually a very good month. back to you. >> thank you very much. bob pisani there on the floor. let's look at retail for just a second. today is cyber monday. as you heard kenny say perhaps all of these monikers are doing more harm than good. the performance of retail stocks today would suggest that. >> obviously the season does not really owe pay these monikers, whether it's black friday or cyber monday, it seems to me there is a huge dissidence going on between how the consumer is behaving, what they're equipped to do and what they're doing in the stores. i don't think anyone has a good handle on deciding if the traditional retailers are cheap or they just look cheap because they're value traps or if there is any other way to play this besides amazon. amazon hasn't made a new high in a while, either. people are backing away from the
4:09 pm
consumer space. >> ylan, take a quick look at ebay it today. if you look at the whoever board just to look at one new popular holiday gifting item one of the best places to find a deal on that was ebay today. >> one thing that has perplexed me is when you listen to the fed and listen to the macro economists they say we believe that the recovery is really taking the reserve, recovery is strong because you see the strength in consumer spending, however, when you look at the retail sales numbers and look at performance on individual stores, you know, it's not that great, it's kind of -- it doesn't seem kind of a resonating piece of evidence that the recovery is on track. >> what about, guy, what would you do with a name like under armour today? i can understand urban outfitters being down more than 5%, i can understand a lulu lemon being down 9%, but under armour is a category leader, an expansion across so many different parts of what consumers, i guess, are looking for today, that today was one of
4:10 pm
the worst performers in the s&p 500 and it's been weak lately. what do you think is going on? >> i think a couple things are going on. i think in this case and i rarely use this word, i think the market is giving you an opportunity. this stock is down 18% or so from its all time high just a couple months ago. but i believe this and i'm reticent to say this, but i think weather hurt these guys and gals. i think the product mix sets up for cold and it clearly hasn't been that, but plank is an unbelievable operator, i think this is one of those rare times the marked gives you a shot in under armour, a lot of people think it's expensive, i don't. against $85 which was the low we made i want to say back in august, i think you can absolutely own ua. >> let's pause for just a moment. we will send it out to seema mody and get a market flash. >> we are looking at mattress firm shares halted after announcing the acquisition of sleepees for $780 million according to the press release, the combined company will
4:11 pm
operate nearly 3500 retail stores and 80 distribution centers across 48 states. mattress firm is the nation's largest specialty mattress retailer. also issuing strong q3 guidance. we are looking at shares halted after hours, it was down 3% on the day. keep in mind year to date shares of mattress firm down 15%. kelly. >> all right. thank you. guy, what do you make of this news? >> i guess some sort of a housing play. what i make of this, this stock has not been a performer, seema mentioned it, the stock topped out i think at the end of 2014 and it's been not a straight line down but pretty much a straight line down ever since. i don't think you go racing in to buy the stock on the back of this. i'm parsing through it now trading 49 1/2 to find out what the right levels are, knee jerk for me is to do absolutely nothing. if you want to be in the space home depot has been the right place to be if you want to play this housing market for the
4:12 pm
louisiana three years, i don't think that's changed. >> i know we're talking about relatively small size but there's questions about whether given, you know, the policy environment we're dealing with mattress firm will -- >> i think it's a broken up regional business, actually, believe it or not, even though there's a couple of big publicly traded temper and sealy. i don't know what the specific overlap is, but it seems to me to be a fragmented market. they can always make the case you can always buy it online. >> that's right. going back to what he said about home depot as well, if this is the way to play the consumer again perhaps ylan it's the prorder way of gauging the health fundamentally while you have low oil prices potentially that we're looking for but at the same time higher healthcare costs that probably don't get enough attention. >> that's right. on the mattress side i will have to say from personal experiences buying mattresses is the absoluter worst. >> horrible.
4:13 pm
>> i still feel a sense of hesitance amongst consumer paragraphs. they are not ready to go out and make the big purchases outside of the auto industry sector that we've seen. so i have to wonder how strong is that consumer going to be as we enter into a rising rate environment. >> i will let that question hang over the whole thing. guy, thank you so much. >> thanks, kel. >> much more of guy adami coming up on mast money at 5:00 p.m. >> coming up we will get mother cyber money read when we're joined by the question of guild group. amazon unveils their drone delivery proet toe. we will talk about how this could soon be a reality or whether it's one big publicity stunt. believe it. at&t and directv are now one. which means you can watch in the house, in a treehouse, or even in miss pepperpie's house. pause in your pjs and hit play during a pb&j. nice!
4:14 pm
and enjoy some cartoons instead of listening to dad's car tunes. (dad) ♪meet you all the way! get the best of both worlds. directv at home and 2 wireless lines. from directv and at&t.
4:15 pm
4:16 pm
amazon releasing a primary video over the weekend. it showcases actual flight footage of unmanned delivery drones sending packages to your backyard within half an hour of ordering. >> in time there will be a whole valley of amazon drones. this one can fly for 15 miles and it knows what's happening around it. it uses sense and avoid
4:17 pm
technology to sense and then avoid obstacles on the ground and in the air. >> with an english accent. we've seen amazon drone videos before and there are still regulatory hurdles to clear about ever it becomes a reality. joining us is michael packeter and jason dell ray. welcome to you both. michael are you modeling the delivery drone? >> yeah, it's in my 2025 model. i think technological fees iblts is now, i think legal possibility is at least ten years out. so no contribution from this until we get a government that can actually meet and agree on anything. >> well, jason, there's changes afoot maybe next year in the white house. what do you think? >> i still think -- i tend to agree with michael. this is -- this is years and years off. i do believe it will be a reality at some point, but i think for now amazon really enjoys the marketing of the innovation narrative around the company that comes from drone
4:18 pm
delivery or dreams of it. so not a reality right now. i believe it will happen eventually. >> mike, i was impressed by the fact that they have put this video together, that they already have these trial flights happening. this was thought almost to be a practical joke when jeff bezos announced it on $60 minutes" a year or so ago. >> it doesn't have to have a short runway in terms of when it will be feasible for them to be effective in sending the message that amazon will do anything to make it easier and better for the customer. if that's all it does and they get a lot of free media that's probably worth it. >> just as much as there's free media around that 60 minutes appearance if it understores what they're trying to do better than everybody else which is get it to you the fastest. >> i will say that i think the legal hurdles and the regulatory hurdles that exist for this are
4:19 pm
quite high. the faa blew past it's own deadlines for issuing recommendations for commercial drone use. i don't know how much longer it will take. >> ten years at least. i think that driverless cars are going to be a reality much sooner than drones are going to be permitted by fa. a. i think that matters. if you have to put a pad out for the drone why can't you walk out to the driverless car and the package pops out? that's going to happen, much sooner. i think you will see that within six months of driverless cars being allowed on the streets all over the place. i think amazon has other ways to get packages to us quickly. who needs anything in 30 minutes? if you need it in 30 minutes get in your car and go get it. come on. >> michael, mur mills underestimating did sh is that a word? >> misunderestimating -- >> the american consumer. let me tell you. jason, what would you say to that? >> i'd put a bet maybe we see this before the -- before the driverless cars in some small
4:20 pm
use cases, maybe rural areas. i think you underestimate as well how amazon can change the expectations of the consumer. we might not need it in 30 minutes, but people will start seeing this as a reality they're going to want it in 30 minutes. >> mike. >> i also have the question, maybe michael can answer this. whether we get beyond the feasibility question and whether a customer might want it, i mean, exactly at what level does it become economical for amazon? how many dozens of packages are in a given ups van, for example, what is it going to take for this to scale? >> we estimate that the cost to deliver a package is about 5 bucks even with, you know, a truck full of packages. so if they can get the cost of a drone delivery down below that, my guess is if you have distribution centers every ten minutes miles or so they can probably do that. it will probably be a dollar or two to dispatch the drone and get it back. >> why not deliver newspapers along with a package. >> it's a bundle.
4:21 pm
>> michael and jason. >> thanks. >> the fed approving new emergency lend rules but could that make things worse during future financial crises? >> plus we will discuss the future of streaming media and battle over content rights when we're joined by bob saget. back in a moment. ♪ approaching medicare eligibility? you may think you can put off checking out your medicare options until you're sixty-five, but now is a good time to get the ball rolling. keep in mind, medicare only covers about eighty percent of part b medical costs. the rest is up to you.
4:22 pm
that's where aarp medicare supplement insurance plans insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company come in. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, they could help pay some of what medicare doesn't, saving you in out-of-pocket medical costs. you've learned that taking informed steps along the way really makes a difference later. that's what it means to go long™. call now and request this free decision guide. it's full of information on medicare and the range of aarp medicare supplement plans to choose from based on your needs and budget. all plans like these let you choose any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients, and there are no network restrictions. unitedhealthcare insurance company has over thirty years experience and the commitment to roll along with you, keeping you on course. so call now and discover how an aarp medicare supplement plan could go long™ for you.
4:23 pm
these are the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp, an organization serving the needs of people 50 and over for generations. plus, nine out of ten plan members surveyed say they would recommend their plan to a friend. remember, medicare doesn't cover everything. the rest is up to you. call now, request your free decision guide and start gathering the information you need to help you keep rolling with confidence. go long™. ♪ the federal reserve approving new bank bail out
4:24 pm
limits. >> the fed adopted unanimously new rules today that will govern how it will behave with its infinite checkbook during the next financial crisis. the new rules which were mandated by dodd-frank don't quite take the checkbook away but limit how and when it can be used. the fed won't be making any individual loans to troubled institutions like bear stearns or aig like during the last crisis. under the new rules they can only provide emergency credits to five or more institutions. they can help out a sector of the market not single kpts and the companies, they have to be solvent. there is no lending to firms who would otherwise be bankrupt without the fed loans. they have to provide emergency funding at a penalty rate that is above market rates. any emergency check writing needs the approval of the treasury secretary. some have argued the rules will hurt the ability to save the system in a financial crisis. supporters counter they never intended for the fed to act so
4:25 pm
unilaterally to save individual firms and it needed to be reigned in. >> it reminds me of this whole discussions taking place what the fed is meant for ultimately, what it's supposed to be able to do. ylan, what are your of thoughts on whether thee new rules will fargt the main problems that people see by the regulators? >> barney frank and chris todd have said this ends too big to fail, they are no longer lend to the specific institutions that might be failing or troubled, et cetera. however, i talked to ben bernanke about this issue and in his book he brengs up this idea if you lend to the banks and they know that that's a possibility that encourages them to take bigger are risks. during the financial crisis moral has dplard was a question for later. now we are they later and how exactly are you going to prevent those things there happening before and he told me that those
4:26 pm
programs he felt were very ad hoc and he actually supported the new rules that made a sort of more systemic way for the fed to address the too big to fail, addre address institutions that are failing. >> what concrete changes do you think that means for banks now and in the next crisis. >> the real concrete changes were things mandated by dodd-frank and skrut any of their books. holding more capital, being monitored on a holistic and real time way, that is going to potentially or hopefully forestall the need for what happens when we really are under pressure and have to make the decision to bail out one or more discussion institutions. we are seven years after the thick of the crisis and we are rewriting the rules we wish we had back then. >> steve, as we know so often the people are fighting the last war, the concern is the next one is very different. >> that's 100% right, kelly, it also strikes me that a bigger question is you can write any rules you want, but when we face
4:27 pm
what jackson brown called the fury of the final hour and it's 11:00 on a sunday night and a major bank is going to go down and bureaucrats fear that it will bring down the financial system with it, whether or not any rules at all will keep them from doing t the fed feels like it acted within its laws right then, but -- and the question is whether or not the market even believes it. so that's something that is gatgate debated very strongly in markets when we try to look at whether or not the bigger banks still enjoy a premium of borrowing because of too big to of fail. >> moral hazard isn't gone for many areas this one being one prominent example. thank you, steve. steve liesman back at headquarters. time for a cnbc news update. let's get over to sue herrera. >> while in paris today for climate talks israel prime minister benjamin netanyahu and palestinian.mahmoud abbas met
4:28 pm
face-to-face for the first time in year. they even shared a handshake which was captured by photographers. the street outside the bataclan son cert hall in paris reopened to the public lick for the f. irs time. bullet holes could be seen along the theater's exterior and entrances do remain blocked off. in the wake of the paris attacks british prime minister dominic chu says his parliament will hold a debate tomorrow on whether the u.k. will join the air strikes in syria against isis. here at home the suspect in the planned parenthood shooting made his first court appearance in colorado today. robert dear stood quietly as the judge told him he is being held on first degree nurd charges related to three deaths in this weekend's rampage. formal charges will be filed next week. that's the news update. back to you. >> thank you so much. up next we will get a sense of how cyber monday sales are shaping up when we speak with the ceo of guild group.
4:29 pm
and the nsa no longer has the authority to collect bulk met at that data. both sides of that argument will weigh in later on the "closing bell." snot afraid to fail.e some of these experiments may not work. but a few might shape the future. like turning algae into biofuel... technology for capturing co2 emissions... ...and cars twice as efficient as the average car today. ideas exxonmobil scientists are working on to make energy go further... matter how many tries it takes. energy lives here.
4:30 pm
4:31 pm
welcome back. let's take a look at how we finished the day on wall street.
4:32 pm
there was a big sell order on the close, 78 points lower on the dow, nearly 10 points lower on the s&p 500 which barrel held on to positive territory for the month there and the nasdaq down 18. we have a news alert on at&t to get to here. josh lipton, what's happening? >> kelly, some reports about at&t, some reports that cnbc can confirm specifically this has to do with at&t subscribers who previously had unlimited data plans going back to that iphone 3 g era, that's back to 2008. they are going to have their first price increase in about seven years. that price jump won't be too big, it's going to go from about $30 to $35. the change will apparently go into effect here in february of 2016. talk and text costs will be separate from the data fee. at&t telling cnbc in a statement our unlimited data plan customers continue to receive an incredible value, especially those taking advantage of our 4g lte network.
4:33 pm
we did have at&t specifically how many customers are going to be impacted by this change and at&t declined to break out those numbers for us. kelly, back to you. >> josh, thank you. interesting move, mike. again, as people are looking for other ways to perhaps not let people hide in old grandfathered plans. >> for sure. we were puzzling over whether consumer spending dollars are going, it's not going to retail stores and clothing and shoes. this is one of those categories that is taking a bigger piece of the pie and it's not visible as we look at things like retail spending. >> at&t shares moving a little higher. a few hours left to get those describer monday deals, a don'tees's expectation $2.9 billion. of those 21% expected to come from mobile. on line retailer guilt saw 25% of its retail sales come from mobile sales. >> exhausted?
4:34 pm
>> i am. but we've got a lot of deals under our belts at this point. >> i'm glad you guys in particular are here today. one of the concerns we have had this from a number of guests is how much of these sales going to impact profit margins once everything is said and done? i know your approach is a little different, but how deeply re finding you have to discount things to catch the consumers attention and what concerns do you have? >> every day is value. every day is a value offering. we are aer always selling up to 65, 70% off retail. holiday is not that different for us. now, we do extra promotional things, on black friday we said if you spend more than $10,000 you can get a vintage sheinelle bag. >> how many people did that? >> six shoppers. one shopper bought a $30,000 rolex. someone is in for a great gift. we are always trying to do something fun. i think the team did an amazing job of breaking out. i think that's what all retailers are struggling with,
4:35 pm
if you are in discount mode all the time or deal mode how do you make it fresh and get out of that ma not knee and make it exciting. >> what is that particular purchase that wasn't done on mobile was it? >> i'm not sure if it was done on mobile or not. we have had $10,000, $20,000 items bought on mobile before. we have been a mobile first company for a long time. >> i was going to say at what point does mobile become a big part of the pie that we stop breaking out it out? >> what's the way somebody uses the channel? with the phone it's always there, you don't have to be parked somewhere, you have camera capability, location cap abilities, at night people are on, historically their ipads but we launched a partnership with apple on the apple tv to have a great shopping experience on tv, that's been super fun. when people use that that's at night when they want to lean back full screen approach. it's not so much about what's the percentage that comes from one or the other but how do we make each of them incremental to the shopping experience yens.
4:36 pm
>> today is cyber monday the whole concept used to be people were coming back from thanksgiving break, going to their desks and offices and shopping online, with the number of poo peopling shopping on mobile these days and the strength of internet connections at homes is cyber monday still all that important? >> what is black friday, what is cyber monday? really what you're seeing is deals over that whole long holiday weekend. from a lot of the reports the industry is having an okay holiday season, probably coming off a pretty tough october and early november, but what's happening is people are pulling forward the black friday deals into thursday and pulling forward thanksgiving deals into wednesday and cyber monday is starting on sunday. it's elongating, it's hard to tell the difference between cyber monday and black friday. it's about great deals across channels. >> would you say your sales are as healthy, if i'm an investor trying to understand what's at stake here from all this
4:37 pm
discounting, is the environment as healthy for you as a company as it has been in years past or are you finding you have to cut deeper or find different ways that might compromise the money you're making? >> retail a suls competitive and it's more competitive from ever from a pricing perspective but we're up 16% overall over the holiday so far, the past few days, it's been a great year for us and we always are discounting, that's our value proposition so it doesn't affect our business model nearly as much on the positive side because a lot of brands have had softer periods we are getting a lot of access to greater inventory. >> michelle is the ceo of gilt group. >> kobe bryant announcing he will retire at the end of the season but his business life off the court is just beginning. we will take a look at the big business of kobe coming up. first are netflix and hulu helping and hurting the ability of actors like that one, we see you over there, bob is a get.
4:38 pm
mr. bob is a get will join us live from the new york stock exchange when we come right back.
4:39 pm
4:40 pm
. re at the td ameritrade trader offices. ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. it's the host of america's funniest home videos and for playing danny tanner on the '90s sitcom "full house" now he is back on a sequel named "fuller house" he is bob saget. also starring nearby in a tony
4:41 pm
nominated show hand to god as the role of pastor greg. >> yes, i am playing a lutheran minister. >> that must be fascinating. you have also played a character based on ivan boasty. >> he wrote about a boy nick horn bee hr written and also did in good company. i got to play an ivan boasty character whose family was falling apart and didn't tell him he was insider trading and got caught. >> i realize you letting us put you on the spot. >> i'm usually quick and smart. >> i felt you would fit in with the guys around here. >> i always sell low. >> you are in the middle of interesting changes in television. full house was the thing back in the '90s. >> right. >> now it's really all about streaming and netflix is where fuller house is going to be and
4:42 pm
is that exciting for you or -- i mean, is it as lucrative as people might think, as exciting. >> it's as lucrative as the public demands. you could get a network show that could be taken off in four episodes and get paid well or have a show that's on netflix where in this case i'm a guest star on fuller house, 13 episodes. so kids can literally binge watch that thing. candace cameron beret was dj, she is raising the sons of candace. what i'm doing here -- doing broadway is a different -- it's an actor's thing, not that full house is not, but it's really a special, special play. you all should come see it. in fact, you should come with me right now. >> is there a different model these days for people like yourself, for actors, for hollywood to make money?
4:43 pm
is it going to be sort of layering on broadway, layering on streaming, layering on, you know, traditional tv in order to build out your career to ensure that you have strong income stream? >> yeah, it's a whole different model with amazon and hulu is making shows. you can literally -- amazon you can buy, you know, a can of tuna and a movie that someone is in at the same time. sometimes movies smell like canned tuna if they are not good. yeah, it's a brand new thing and they are spending money and it costs money to make a television show. theater is in a different realm. sometimes they will take a play and make a movie out of it. with this case hand to god that i'm in or look at hamilton, it is a huge moneymaker, specifically for theater. so there's different -- but it's nothing like what's happening here. i mean, this show could theoretically all be melded in ten years whether you are watching it on network or
4:44 pm
watching -- it will all be one thing. when you have directv you can watch it on your phone. i don't think shows are meant to be watched on your phone. this i would watch on my shown because i want to learn what's happening on the news. this is the cnn of money which i know nothing about. >> what's happening in the music business, artists were getting paid less on traditional channels and live has become a big thing. you are still active on the comedy circuit. how is that business, live comedy? >> stand up comedy i started doing when i was 17, which is about 400 years ago before this building was built. it is a fascinating thing. i'm going out on tour in january for a few months to do a new special. that -- people need to laugh, especially right now and it is a remarkable thing to be able to do that and i'm having more fun doing it and more attendance, there's more people present at my shows. >> what is more important your stand up shows or netflix? >> i can't give the -- who gets the most money out of you three?
4:45 pm
>> what's the biggest money mistake? >> what's the biggest money mistake you have ever made? >> divorce. but it's helpful because you've got to be honest. which has nothing to do with what happens here. i just saw this movie the big short. you have to see this movie. >> what does bob sag get binge watch? i like the show tie rant because a friend of mine is on it and house of cards. one is fx and the other is netflix. so netflix is -- actually, kevin spacey said the new fuller house show should be called fuller house of cards. that's his joke and he is going to be mad at me so i have to credit him. >> bob, thank you for joining us. >> come to hand to god. it ends january 3rd. that's when i'm done. the people are geniuses, it has five tony nominations that was my plug for the play. >> thank you for being here. is privacy trumping safety now that the nsa has ended its
4:46 pm
bulk phone metadata collection. hawaiian airlines stock is up 6%. the carrier ceo gives us the secret to his stock success tomorrow on the "closing bell." but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet?
4:47 pm
4:48 pm
4:49 pm
the nsa's bulk phone met at that daytona program expired over the weekend. some may feel relieved knowing the government is no longer monitoring this data but in light of the paris terrorist attacks what does it mean for terr security. what are your thoughts here? >> i think kelly, nice to see you again. i remember we talked about encryption once before. i don't think that there is a problem with the fact that there is metadata collected because ultimately the nsa and the dod are there to protect the u.s. citizen. i think that the sophistication that went into this program in order to protect us and monitor certain type of activity, we will take that for granted by asking for it to go away. we don't know what we don't know. i'm really for it. >> hear you, dave. you are not so much. why? >> you know, we really haven't seen where it's been effective.
4:50 pm
we have heard some stories, but never any hard evidence that all of this data actually protected us. look at the paris attacks. you know, after this happened this was an excuse of, well, we need we need to back door encryption. at the end of the day they were used clear text communications. i agree, terrorism is a problem. but the amount of mean we are spending and the amount of civil liberties that are being violated just isn't worth it. >> joe? >> well, ultimately the d.o.d. and nsa are never going to tell us everything that happens behind the scenes. and because i do know some of the leaders -- i know general make hayden personally. and will tell you that a lot of operatives that do happen are not publicly made available. and anyone doing any work with nsa and d.o. dd. knows that bute can't advertise that. we take for granted what is happening behind the scene
4:51 pm
because people don't want to val dade it until they see evidence. because they don't talk about it, doesn't mean it is not happening. >> dave? >> because there is -- let's say for example 50 plats have been -- plots have been foiled. i would be surprised if it was that high. we are forgetting the trust of our security. when you are dealing with security, it is all about trust. and when edward snowden also brought out the fact that the nsa was back dooring cisco reuters and after that you had global companies and countries now questioning whether or not their transactions were actually secure. see, the problem that we keep forgetting is that encryption is neutral. it is not good, it is not bad. it is neutral. it is how it is used. same with back-doors. if we back-door this for the nsa we are allowing a security weakness to be present that malicious forces could use. >> let me ask you, because i'm
4:52 pm
not sure. do we -- are we allowed to collect metadata when it comes to people calling one another, not necessarily on mobile phones but just from land lines and that kind of thing. in other words, is there a traditional surveillance usage argument that you could make here, which is just monitoring people calling one another, collecting that data and then trying to use big data kind of tools to analyze where risks may be. or would you consider none of that appropriate? >> well, for years, for decades, there have been taps that have been put into place in our traditional public telephone systems which would allow, with a warrant, the law enforcement to actually come in and monitor certain phone calls. and taps have been going on for years. likewise, they are able to go in with a warrant and not necessarily collect metadata,
4:53 pm
but able to collect cellular data, where the phone was registered, triangulating it. and that is how they discovered and were able to do the raid in paris, from a phone that they found that was discarded by the terrorists. you know, at that point, we have a clear-cut separation here where we have a public law and the public judicial that is saying, we need this and is this right. >> i have to leave it there, gentlemen, for now. but very much appreciate hearing both views. >> thank you. >> coming up next, we're taking a look at kobe bryant. he has ruled the basketball court for nearly two decades. now that he's announced iz upcoming retirement, he has plans to rule the business world too. we have those details when we come back.
4:54 pm
4:55 pm
4:56 pm
welcome back. it is the end of an era for the nba. lakers' star kobe bryant announcing this is his last season. and did so with a poem. you gave a six-year-old boy his laker dream and i will love you for it. but i can't love you excessively for much longer. this season is all i can take. my body knows it is time to say
4:57 pm
good-bye. eric chemi joins us with more on the impact his retirement may have. >> his body is taking a beating, but it is a smooth transition from kobe bryant the basketball player into the company. the champion has been prepared for his tiermt when he started his own investment firm called kobe inc. he poured about $6 million of his own money into a gatorade competitor, a start-up sports drink called body armor. they also signed a deal with alibaba this summer. remember, he is huge in china. he was maybe the biggest star for the entire 2008 beijing olympics. so his business philosophy centered around hands-on management rather than doing endorsements and given that hands-on management and he wants to tie investment to sports because that is the area he knows best. the kobe inc. president is a
4:58 pm
marketing executive named andrea fairchild. she used to work at pepsi, gatorade and nike. so she has experience here. and if you look at role models, michael jordan and magic johnson, they made huge salaries as players, but in retirement they made more money off the court than they ever did as basketball players. >> you bring up alibaba. and his role in china. for now it is body armor. has that drink done anything. >> it is more about being a start-up. he is putting in millions of dollars. the two founders of the company, they used to work at vitamin water and sold that to coke for $4 billion. and the other co-founder sold to coke for millions of dollars so they know how to make money in sports drinks. >> and somebody else who did a farewell tour, derek jeter. >> kobe has a investment in players tribune as well. >> and that is how he became
4:59 pm
public for this to be his last season. some of the few people in the world with global recognition and kind of whatever they decide, maybe i'll do this next, it seems like it has a good head start. >> jeter is interesting, he and peyton manning, that is who gatorade goes after, but body armor goes after younger players like andrew luck. >> i hate to be the deny downer, i have to bring up the charges of sexual assault. do you think that had any role in his decision to do fewer endorsements and more hands on? >> i think that was so long ago. at this point he could do whatever he wants. that was in 2003. most of his career is since that incident. >> and any earl signs of where he might go next and what he might be interested in next. >> they are quiet. their office is not revealing a lot of information. but he does call up ceos and get advice on how they run their companies. >> that is a good way to start getting early ideas.
5:00 pm
thank you very much. eric chemi. "fast money" begins in moments. that does it for us here on "closing bell." melissa lee, what is on tap. >> fitbit, microsoft and philip morris. what do they have in common? they have been upgraded. we are grading the upgrades on "fast money." >> i'm glad that wasn't a quiz question because i have nothing. over to you. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market side overlooking times square. i'm melissa lee. you have the panel on the desk. warren buffett's underperformance could signal a market top or a bottom. some traders are on edge. we'll explain. plus, what if the nfl was only available on your apple tv. that is what apple should do with the cash horde and what it means for the apple bottom line. and later, the retail weekend is in the books and it doesn't look good. we are going shopping for the answers with the former chairman and ceo of saks. there are


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on