tv Fast Money CNBC November 30, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
thank you very much. eric chemi. "fast money" begins in moments. that does it for us here on "closing bell." melissa lee, what is on tap. >> fitbit, microsoft and philip morris. what do they have in common? they have been upgraded. we are grading the upgrades on "fast money." >> i'm glad that wasn't a quiz question because i have nothing. over to you. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market side overlooking times square. i'm melissa lee. you have the panel on the desk. warren buffett's underperformance could signal a market top or a bottom. some traders are on edge. we'll explain. plus, what if the nfl was only available on your apple tv. that is what apple should do with the cash horde and what it means for the apple bottom line. and later, the retail weekend is in the books and it doesn't look good. we are going shopping for the answers with the former chairman and ceo of saks. there are three things that
could right the ship. he'll reveal. but first the troubling development in the market today and that is biotech falling hard. and here is the worrisome part. news, and the ibb tumbling 1% on the day. but it wasn't just biotech. take a look at names like facebook, amazon, netflix and nike. starbucks getting tsh hit hard. as we head into the end of the year, what do you see? >> the biotech index, the ibb, trading up to 400. the move down to 1060 and when it broke through tim said there is a good chance we could see 285. and we saw that. to answer your question. we have had a nice bounce off the 285 level. i think what you're seeing is a healthy selloff on the back of a good run. the other things are concerning, i would think. but this is month-end today. so maybe some people are taking
money off the tables and all of the other names you mentioned. >> and it is month end and that might mean a difference for the netflix and the amazon and the twitter of the world that we've seen today. >> i think it is a month-end rebalance for pension funds. that is more of a -- tim mentioned prior to the show, there was an msci rebalance that affected the flows. but the pension fund month end is a big source of liquidation or liquidity. and i think it is year end posturing. >> i also think there is a ton of macro this week. big events that are significant into the year end. you have an opec meeting, ecb and china getting into the imf strategic reserves. we'll talk about that later on the show. a lot of big picture events. could there be a santa claus rally and did we already have it. and the ibb move is not that big of a deal when you consider the volatility that tracked biotech. and if i look at biotech shares,
they've been sideways since july. and we've talked about loss of leadership for this market. none of this -- this narrowing is very consistent with that. >> down 1.5% doesn't sound that bad when you look at big biotech. those moves were pronounced to the down side. talking about celgene, town 3% -- down 3% on the day and no new news. >> and they have been going sideways for months now, as tim mentioned. but once we turn the calendar year, we are in a presidential year and drug prices is a hot, hot topic here. so i think you have the situation where this sector was outperforming almost every other sector in the market as of this summer and now it has come off 20% or so and there is dispersion between the results. there was mid to smaller cap names acting well because of the m&a. the ones that are considered acquires, like celgene, am gen, bio aga bio gen, and what made the mma
possible -- >> and it was up 8%. so you could see a give-back there. not a move to have reverse trade. but 8% since november 16th. >> in terms of the calendar, this week is a big week. >> huge. >> and then the fed meeting. is it worth it being in the market here. step back. >> my answer is no. i think it is a great time to step back. i don't think you will miss that much to the upside and the 3% or 4% move to the down side might blindside people. so i think it is a great time to take a powder into the next couple of weeks given the macro stuff we'll be hearing and the potential for headlines over the next two or three weeks. >> and that is what we're seeing. we are seeing slow movement in the markets. >> we haven't mentioned what the shanghai late last week. when we were closed. there is headlines coming out of the areas of emerging markets and they remind me of what we saw in the early to mid-august. so as you think about what the ecb will do this week and the
fed is likely to do in two weeks it sets up for a pullback. >> take a look at this. it appears that shopping mall traffic -- it is taking a big fall here. the st. louis fed putting out a compelling chart illustrating the big hit department store sales have taken. since 2001 and as mastercard reports department store sales are flat and nine sales are up double-digits so could anything save the department store. and we have a former saks ceo, ran the national retail federation and sits on the jc penney board. so steve, great to have you with us on set. >> great to be here. >> and you said that you thought black friday wasn't so bad for stores. >> i don't think so. now we have to look at stores and online together. you can't look at one channel. the national retail federation predicted the season up 3.7%. my guess is that number will hold true. you can't look at one day. the sales started earlier.
last week you had sales going on. cyber monday started over the weekend. so you have to look at the aggregate sales online and in the stores. if you put them together, you are in the low single-digit growth over the last several days. >> could you tell the pace of promotion activity over the season by seeing what is discounted this black friday? >> you could probably get a sense of it from two things. one, when you look at the third quarter earnings, a lot of the inventories were a bit high. there was a little bit of prognosis saying that we're seeing too much inventory, it is going to take a hit in margin in the fourth quarter. you saw deep discounts, a little bit more aggressive this year than last year. so i would expect that the margins will take a hit in the fourth quarter. i also expect it is already factored into the prices. >> so when people come on air and point to a macy's and nordstrom and say department stores are having trouble. do you agree with that. is there something wrong fundamental going on with consumer behavior that indicates they no longer want to shop in
the store format. >> i think the customer wants product i anywhere, any time they want to get. it they are shopping online and in the store. the person who shops online buys three or four times more. >> so they do buy more in the store as opposed to online. >> no, if they do both. and you see the shift toward the online behavior. i don't think there is a fundamental weakness in the consumer. they love shopping and there are more options out there. you have the online only companies. they are starting to go into retail and open up stores. you see online companies like rb parker opening up in a nordstrom. that is where the innovation is coming. >> and you so think the retailers need to do something exciting for the consumers. they are not adjusting to fashion trends fast enough. on the inventory side, how does that -- how does that change. that is no different than problems they may have faced a few years ago but it seem as cute right now, the. >> there are fundamental
problems stores face and the supply chain, the h&mvp and the zara getting consumer taste quickly. i see innovation taking place in the department stores. but you have to shorten the supply chain and adjust to the consumer. you can't buy for half a year. >> so who is doing it right? i'm not asking for stock advice, but executionally, who do you see as the retailers that are doing it right? >> i think somebody like a nordstrom, if we are in the department store space. they have done a great job of inno vating, bringing in different kind of products into the stores. i think jc penney -- i'm biased, i'm on the board, i think they've done a good job recovering from the rob johnson debacle. >> and some of the guys are innovating in the stores. that was ron johnson's vision, to have stores within a store. was he too far ahead of his time. >> we have to bring back -- you have to start with your customer and don't fire your customer.
but a lot of the retailers, you have to win by being omni channel. everyone hates the trm but it is critical. but it means you have to have a great store experience. remember, as much as people are saying that online grew so much during the thanksgiving weekend and it did, probably 20% or more, five times as many people, the volume was five times as many in the stores as it was online. so it is not just about the traffic or where people are scouting out the products. so what you have to see is the innovation. and i think a lot of companies are innovating right now but they have to do it faster. and they have to invest in the store base and invest in the technology. amazon is setting the tone. you have to do what they do in terms of delivering the shopping experience. and that is what the consumer expects. >> steve, we have to leave it there. but thanks for coming by. we hope you come back soon. >> happy to. >> i'm going to mr. omni channel himself. >> my favorite channel. i watch the yankees on it. he mentioned nordstroms. so go back to friday the 13th.
here is a stock trading down to 50.5. and traded close to 25 million shares and closed at 54. that was a bottom to me. i think you own it against the $54 level. but that being said, macy's hasn't really bounced and had a terrible year. nordstrom has as well. if you choose me to play the game, i would go with nordstrom. >> jc penney bounced off the low in august. that is the turn-around story here. it got lumped in with negative stories in the retail industry and department stores. but i think jc penney at a bounce back is the place to be. >> what happens are the names that are winning, like home depot, lowe's, nike? >> nike i'm long. and i think the dtc, direct to consumer approach will have them ahead of everybody. it is now more than 25% of the business. lowe's, home depot, the home improvement, we have talked about it. they are not growing stores but the demand continues to grow and
grow. i think they deserve a premium valuation. i won't run out of those trades yet. >> to tie it back to the top of the show, we were talking about valuations into year end, is there where you use that same view. >> i think this is a dire situation for a lot of retail. i think cheap gets cheaper in the new year. all of the stuff that he talks about, innovation that costs money. when you see walmart and target and try to innovate and compete with the likes of amazon, that means costs and the stocks will go lower next year. coming up, the battle over care for sumner redstone rages on. we'll tell you what it could mean for viacom shareholders. and coming soon to an apple tv near you, thursday night nfl games. that is what one big tech investor is saying apple should do. he'll join us with details and what it could mean for the bottom line. and could star wars offset the declines for disney. a top analyst weighs in.
saying he lacked capacity. julia boorstin is there with the details. >> there is a scheduling conference being held behind me right now. it started moments ago. and to kick things off, the judge laid out four reasons why this case is not urgent. saying he has a personal physician that sees him twice a week, not suffering with critical health issues and he has people with him at all times. the judge also noted that his current health agent is an attorney and ceo of viacom. and the judge also granted an order to set the application for hearing. what that means is that he said they would have a hearing in which they would consider mr. redstone's request for a dismissal of this lawsuit. now while redstone's lawyers are called for the -- calling for the suit to be dismissed, his ex-girlfriend's attorney issued a response calling it out landish and unprecedented.
if this lawsuit is filed found to have merit, that could open up viacom, whose shared are down 34% in the past year for lawsuits for failing to disclose material information. now her zer alleged that he is unable to speak other than grief brunted responses and is fixated on sex and having steak despite the fact that his doctors tell him not to do so. his attorney rejects the claims saying they are riddled with lies and submitted a response that quotes the ceo calling redstone engaged and attentive. we'll continue to monitor the hearing underway right now. to see if we could have any more details on the time line of this suit. back over to you. >> thank you, julia boorstin. it does sound like the judge is opening the door for potential dismissal of the suit. but she makes a good point. if this is deemed to have merit, the shareholder responses will come flooding in. >> what are the implications
after this. could you think you could -- could you bring viacom back with cbs. i think the stocks have both been overly punished and there is some upside on resolution. and entire industry suffering here. these guys have been punished that much more and i'm not sure that is warranted. >> maybe they should be. maybe the declines are worse. >> and the bounces -- cbs has gone from 40 to 52 in a four-week period of time. >> they all have. >> and that is a turn. you might be right in terms of long-term but you could see cbs trade back down to $45. >> well, listen, i go back to time warner, that is the name here. it held here at 70 as disney has been moving around. there is news around redstone. that is what i believe on the content play, that is the winner over the next -- >> twx. >> twx. to be clear. and the imf agreeing to add theuon, and the yuan and the
pound are in the group. stocks like alibaba and baidu rallied hard into the close. don't know if it is because of this. >> no. because of the inclusion in the index. baidu and alibaba, and that's why the stocks need to be held by more people. but today is a victory lap for china. smsing this -- back in august, people were concerned about the deval. and they were claiming that what is ratified today, trying to loosen up the monetary system and let the currency freely flow. i agree that is what is going on. now they have to live up to this. is this the over all of the chinese economy. is this an exciting day? yes. and central banks own enough yuan at this point. if you are playing chinese adr, the sentiment from august is still in thebaidu.
but take a look at the names. they look interesting to me. >> but there is no buyback in terms of the equities by this move. >> i don't think they have to change the way they own it and translating into the purchase of the stock. >> morgan stanley will take cuts and the bank reported a 42% decline in bond trading in the third quarter. dan. >> so i think the 42% number in that last quarter was surprising to people. but then when you think about the environment that we're in, regulatoriwise and what is going on in fixed income markets, 25% cut sounds like a lot. but here is this thing in the regulation world the banks live in with low leverage, you have to do this. if you are an investor at morgan stanley, you want to see this. the stock was up at 40, and people were looking forward to rate increases and the higher maeshlgs for -- margins for wealth management. so this is probably a buy right
here. down 11% on the year. and headed into the new year in a rate environment that should be going higher, i think it works but use a 30 stop to the downside. >> and continuing with that diversified banking play. i'm with bank of america. but if you want to segway into a bank that is proven, it is jp morgan. so either way you want to play it, bank of america or jp morgan. >> u.s. bank corp. slow and steady wins the race. i would rather sell morgan stanley, 45e drs is the high. >> the buffet indicator. signaling a top in the market. and if history is any indication, stocks could see a big move. we'll explain. i'm moyle and you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. here is what is coming up on "fast money." >> the force is strong. >> but is star wars strong enough to avoid cord cutting. a top analyst makes the call. plus -- should apple's next
forget buybacks and dividends. apple should take some of the $200 billion in cash and buy the rights to nfl games. or so says the next guest, eric jackson. he joins us now from the toronto stock exchange. great to have you with us. >> hi. >> there is no doubt that apple could certainly afford to do it but what does it gain by doing that? >> well it is all about the apple eco-system and how there is such love for the nfl in america that it would be a huge -- have a huge multiplying affect on people that need to go out and buy apple tvs, like apple tvs and start buying content on apple tvs through itunes and like the idea of getting on to iphones. >> how does that work. if apple streams the games, will they also make money from advertising. because if i'm an apple tv user, that would make me mad.
>> well, i don't think so. basically, apple would be motivated through selling its stuff. when broadcasters and cable operators bid for the nfl today, they are looking at not so much making money off the ads on the game, although that is important. but they are using the audience to promote the new show coming on this fall or whatever it is. but the advantage of the digit players like apple or the same thing for google or amazon, it could drive people to say i need to see the thursday night games, which are coming up for bid soon. and oh, i have to buy some gear from apple in order to do that. okay. i'll make that investment. and in doing so, they are getting to see their games. apple doesn't care whether they sell ads but they care about getting additional people into the apple eco-system. >> and eric, it sounds like an interesting idea. but when you think about what is going on. they have the hardware eco-system and that is what
existed right now and emerging platforms here. to me, wouldn't it make sense to go down the amazon or netflix route, produce or acquire content to stream through a subscription service and use that in some way, shape or form or rather than have a demographic that is primarily u.s. sent rick. >> i would argue with that. yahoo live streams the game all over the world. and they found huge demand internationally. so predominantly this is a play for the u.s. but apple needs to consider do they want to let someone like amazon get rights to this set of games and potentially other set of games down in the future. and if so, are the 100 million people that are potentially going to move to that eco-system, amazon or get hooked on prime or even fire tv and all of the things that come with that, or google, chrome cast
or whatever, every customer that goes that route is not on an ios device. that is what this is about. it is blocking and tackling apple style. >> literally. eric, thank you. >> thanks. >> eric jackson, aid erin vestments. it is an interesting thought on whether you think they should acquire the games on the nfl. what should apple do with its cash and look to be more creative in how it is using cash as opposed to the conventional acquisition you think of which is maybe a hard wear holdings. >> i'm more in dan nathan's camp. i think this could work the other way where you could alienate people. fans will say you have to buy this apple tv to watch this game. i'm not the target audience by the way. >> and this is for getting people to watch tv and stream through their products. apple is all about brand
loyalty. people are loyal. and i think they will do it. and for apple, they don't need to do it. this is about a stream they continue to develop. they are in the business of keeping people loyal and in their business and i think they continue to do. >> it and eric mentioned cbs down 9% year-to-date. those thursday night games are coming up for bid. cbs has them. so the sideways trade on this is to sell cbs off of this. up next, the espn decline in subscribers sending disney stock tumbling but could the force turn the tide for investors. and what happens when fashion, tech and guy adami get together. it is a high fashion smart in your heaven. we'll explain when "fast money" returns. [burke] it's easy to buy insurance and forget about it.
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the month in the green. the big loser, gold. locking in the worst month in 2 1/2 years falling nearly 7% in november to the lowest level in almost six years. here is what coming up in the second half of "fast money." is big acman making a large move. we'll tell but the trade that raised eyebrows in the pits today. and ralph lauren launching smart meirrors. a high tech adventure with guy adami. we are just a few weeks away from star wars, even if it is a hit at the box office, is that enough for espn. martin pick ownan covered disney and martin, it is great to have you with us. >> great to be here. >> there is a fixation on subscriber declined brought to light by the filing that disney had on wednesday. is the star wars halo enough to offset the decline in the
industry. >> i don't think star wars in and of itself enough. i know you have talked about the merchandising and the other star wars movies coming after this. the bigger picture is you have other things at disney that are working and should continue to work. shanghai disney is opening in the sprong and more box office momentum and the theme parks obviously. and overall, the part that doesn't get talked about enough is the global franchise and the global channels that are really penetrating markets like china and india and so forth that are still very early. so i think star wars is in the spotlight but again you have other films coming. and think there are structural issues. i think espn, i've talked about this, kind of a peak margin level in the business. kind of as good as it gets is the analogy to think of. that is well-known, appreciated but certainly a risk. i don't think star wars in and of itself makes up for it.
but with the multi-year development should did well for -- do well for them. >> martin, this is steve. with the skinny bundle they had better margins and they will survive and be just find. when you look at your calculations, do you see that as well or are we fearing something we shouldn't fear. >> i think the calculations will tell you something we don't know yet. when you talk about digital rads advertising, it was kind of analog dollars versus digital pennies. and that is what you have going on here. the traditional bundle is very profitable for everybody in the eco-system, as they call it. and it is not clear that that skinny bundle in whatever fashion is going to make up for it. but the disney channels beyond espn, you have to assume they are in a lot of packages. so that is there. but what they get paid for it i think is still a question mark. so if you are a long-term investor here on disney and think why do i want to own this
two years from now, you have to be comfortable with the foreign market plays there and the growth because the skinny bundle offset, i don't think is completely guaranteed. >> martin, thanks for phoning in. we appreciate it. so disney may not be firing on all sill enders -- sill enders for the tv side. >> shanghai disney is a big deal and the franchise characters around the world and that is early in the stage. it is relative about disney relative to others in the sector. that is how you should consider playing the media stocks right now in which disney will dominate. there is no question they have better eps growth. i do think, as you said, you used this term, mel, the halo affect from star wars will resonate through the rest of the theaters and a number of other companies. and you should play that, look at paramount, i think others will get that affect. >> and my pushback is the problems we saw two quarters ago in the beginning of august have not been fixed.
last quarter was a good quarter but two quarters ago brought to light the problems in disney. the stock went from $122 down to $95. filled a gap and traded back up to that level next week. i think we're on the way to trade back down to 105. and we'll have wbw on in a minute. and you wonder if history would repeat again. which is a nice tease. >> i was long on the stock and i did sell it but i'm looking for an entry point below 110. >> this is at 25% moves just this year. so i think you'll see 105. and i think what we're talking about with star wars, people are talking about a year out, $5 billion in aggregate revenues from the movie and from apparel. so to me i think it could serve as a buffer in that time frame. a shot down 5% that is your entry point. >> from an iconic brand to an investor. the oracle is having a bad year. down more than 10% year-to-date
and underperforming the s&p 500. the next guest said that could have broader implications for the market. lets go to carter worth breaking it down at the smart board. what are you watching. >> it is the correlation since the purchase of burlington northern. this is year-to-date, berkshire versus the transports. and it is a correlation of about point eight and down 10% when the s&p is up one. this is when the purchase was made. almost like railroad tracks, no pun intended. parallel lines. here is back to the lows of '01. and to put in context, i have the s&p itself. you are talking about a performance that is a four-bagger versus berkshire and the transports. so the issue is this, of course. down on the year. and it is a well-established down trend. and all i'm thinking is, stay with what we know.
which is that this continues to fail at the down trend and make the bet that we should get a new low. we've made new relative lows and we'll play for absolute lows. and finally, for what it is worth, i'm betting against history. in the sense berkshire has been down a handful of times ever. and when it was down, it was up the ensuing year. not much. so here we are in 2015 and again we are down. and then i'll end with this, each of these are fairly major points. this was a recession. this was an all-time market peak. this was at or near an all-time low. and an epic moment, the '08 plunge. and this was the debt down grade, and that -- well, we shall see. i'm betting against berkshire. >> so it is a market top, you're saying? >> progress equities in the year. small cap and mid cap stocks are unchanged. topping is a process. and we know this, yes.
don't like it. >> carter, thank you. >> thank you. >> carter worth. >> strapping. even with the pocket square. great monday. so what he is basically talking about in berkshire hathaway, are the transports. they have had a terrible year. the eyt trades back down to 140. if they leave the broader market, you could see the pullback in the broader market. i always agree with carter braxton worth, by the way. >> we are talking about his big holdings not doing sol. >> and remember, again, it is a portfolio of things. he owns ups and dear and the transports. but alsoveri sign and visa. and if you look at the names, this is an interesting analysis but when you look at the places where he made money, i think they will continue to work. ge has turned some things around. has air behind it. so if you look at it, it is not just a transport story. >> but mr. buffet needs a good
old fashion crisis. if you think about the bailouts from ge and goldman and the list goes on and now seven years into the recovery with seven years and he owns a bunch of crap, let's be honest. >> whoa. >> outright crap. >> that is a crazy thing to say. >> coca-cola, kraft, wells fargo, goldman sachs. what i'm saying is -- >> they are not terrible companies. >> they are great companies that act poorly in this stage of the bull market. the performance is crap. that is what is simple. in 2014, most of the names that he is top holders of -- >> the way i look at this again, it is about portfolio holdings. >> and we know he has 100 year time horizon. >> but what does he do? when implied volatility screams during a financial crisis, he sells. >> the goldman preferred deal was a home run. >> and the ge deal and the bank of america deal. >> and this is a guy playing for
the long haul. i look at the companies on this list and i say these are companies i would like to hold for the next ten years. >> i could go in and buy them all. they are down this year. you could go in and buy them at a discount. >> they are not all down. half of them are up. >> the correlation between berkshire hathaway and the bullish trends, that doesn't worry you. >> if you are trading on ups and john dear and sun corp and precision cast parts, these are names that are closely tied to the transport index. but that is not the portfolio. and you have to pick and choose in those names. >> more broadly, in terms of the markets, you have to be a dow theorist to be worried, but do you believe -- >> i do. i absolutely do. and the transported topped out november of last year and have been going down ever since. we have a little bit of a bounce from 128 to 147 or so in the iyt. but the next leg is lower in the transports. and i think that drags the s&p down with it. quick spirited debate. >> i have to get this in. i get last word here.
wells fargo is unchaerted. kraft heinz, ibm is down, phillips is down. proctor and gamble is down. the list -- walmart is down. >> [ overlapping speakers ] >> so, yeah, portfolios made -- >> great opportunity to buy his portfolio if you have the same time horizon as he does. have a ball. >> we're going to leave it there. we have to go. still ahead, guy adami did a little holiday deal hunting of him own as ralph lauren to see how it is using technology to get customers back into the store. later in hour. and major falls on the street but are they getting it right. it is trader versus analyst right after the break. much more "fast" still ahead.
we have news coming out of the sumner redstone hearing in los angeles. let's get back to julia boors n boorstin. >> the hearing just wrapped up. and what looks like it might be an early win for sumner red stone. the judge deemed that the complaint was not urgent and scheduled the next hearing for january. that is a hearing when they will evaluate whether or not to dismiss the suit. this could be an indication that
the accusations may not be very compelling. with her zer's attorney spoke to journalists after the judge's comments saying the petition is very much alive and they are confident they will prevail. we'll see how this pans out early next year. back over to you, julia boorstin in la. it is time to play grade the upgrade. traders weigh in on some of today's biggest calls. let's start off with microsoft, raymond james saying it will be a long-term winner in the cloud race. what grade do you give this call. >> i give it a b. they are doing a lot of things right. but the stock is up 35% from the august lows, up 17% on the year. trading at a post-financial crisis term. but they are getting things right but it is important to remember that the street, investors, are fascinating with the whole notion of things moving toward the cloud. there will be a transition. and this is also a company that missed the cloud. they were late on it.
and they missed mobile and a lot of things. so to me, i don't think you buy it at 54. if it fills in the earnings gap at 50, that is where you buy it. >> next up, fitbit, over weighed. saying the company was off to a good start for the holiday shopping season. grasso. >> i was in the name. i'm out of the name. when you see shortages of 35% in the name, it should pop on any good news. i get the enterprise and the brand name. but to me it feels like another go-pro. i give it a b. i give the up braid a b. but -- the upgrade a b. but i'm not on board because i think it is too early to evaluate the company. >> and philip morris saying that volume trends in the industry are encouraging. tim. >> i give them a b. and we know -- >> b. across the board? >> it is like a tie in hockey. like kissing your sister. it is what it feels like here. maybe better than that. but in a case where the upgrade
at least identified the marlboro man still has pricing power and e-cigarettes are going well. 25% of the market. this is a brunt. i don't own this. i own reynolds andality rhea and these are the names i stay in. >> still ahead, bill ackman could hit the sell on one of his positions. we've the details. and guy adami striking a pose while looking inside of the ralph lauren dressing rooms. a special report from inside of the dressing room. that is right. your watching "fast money," on cnbc, first in business worldwide. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement.
welcome back to "fast money." ralph lauren launching smart mere yos in the stores in new york city and guy adami got a chance to test them out. watch this. >> it is guy. i'm here on fifth avenue outside of ralph lauren's flagship store. we're going to check out something called a smart mirror. smart mirror? >> they have this unbelievable
futuristic technology that apparently is not that futuristic. it is here now. it is a smart board in a changing room. my man al is going to explain it to me. >> if you walk into a fitting room, it will show you the item that you bring in. it will show you how many items you brought in. also you try it on. that is not your size. you want a size smaller or bigger and just request it. you could also hit the colors and it will show you the colors in the fitting room and in the store. and we also have suggestion items that come with the tie that goes with this shirt. you could just request it and you're going to have it in like five seconds. >> well, let's take this for a ride. ♪ >> you know what, it is not working for me. getting a little hotter. but we're not there just yet.
>> zoo lander, nothing on me. >> oh, man. >> that is a good look on you. professor -- >> that was burlap. it is new this year. >> did you like it? >> it is hot. >> i tell you, paris hilton was there. and did you hear what she just said. that is what she said. that is exactly right. >> do you think this technology would make you more inclined to buy? >> it is not for me. it will work at ralph lauren but it is not for me. but it is cool. for example, you get an outfit and put on a jacket and it gives you suggestions on what would look good for that jacket. hit shoes, tie and shirt. it is cool. not for g swizz, but for seaberg, it is perfect. >> it is like animals. >> a guy like that walks into a store and says give me what the
mannequin has. >> he wants to wear what the dummy is wearing. >> the direct to consumer and the international growth, these are reasons why i'm long ralph lauren and i name i would stay in despite the fact there is pressure on margins. a management turn-around story. it is a name interesting and i think is overdone. >> did you buy anything? >> no. they offered to buy the tie, a little tight on that shirt. >> i will say -- keep going. are you done? there is stuff -- look at that. >> not that one. the white shirt -- >> it is very thin. >> that was good. it was the next one. >> the next one. >> okay. i got spanx and man-manx. >> that one looks hot. >> look at that that you just dropped. what are you boxing? what are you doing? >> moving on. massive options bet on one pharma has one traders thinking that bill acman is about to make a big move. dan is over at the smart board. >> zts and pershing square, a
huge block of january 2017 expiration, 35 strike puts. 84,000 traded at $1.25. they weren't bought. it wasn't a protection trade. it looked like they were sold to open. that would be a bullish trade. so when the stock was 46.72, traders sold 84,000 of the january '1735-strike puts. on january 17 if the stock is above $35, that investor takes in the $10.5 million. so when you think about this, this is why i suspect it is probably a leverage trade to an existing long. i look up at the top holders. pershing square is a hedge fund and own 42 million shares. it doesn't break even down until 25% on the downside. it is a 14% probability. so generally you wouldn't buy a 14% probability put. a year or so out. you would maybe look to sell it
to leverage the long. and looking at the chart, it is in an uptrend since january 2013 ipo. this is, again, spun out of pfizer a few years ago and i think it is one of the names that has been talked about because of the valuation as a potential takeover target. if you thought it was going up, selling puts to the downside is one way to leverage your position. >> we are back on friday. 5:30 p.m. eastern time here on cnbc. up next, final trade. stay tuned.
time for the final trade. around the horn we go. tim. >> alibaba. a great company long-term, decent fundamentals, good growth. stay in the name. >> dan. >> eem. i think it is a sell here. i think it sees 32 as we head into the fed meeting in mid december. >> grasso. >> ulta. specially retail, up 30% year-to-date. keep it on the shortstop. 163 stops. >> a cosmetics seller. >> and buckles, she did a nice job on that. >> nice package. >> speaking of nice, new mont
mining. up 6% today. didn't we discuss that last week. something going on in the gold. >> you want to break out in level laughter so badly. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bulwark in summer and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica, other people trying to make friends, i'm trying to make you money. my doubt is not just to entertain but educate and teach you, call me, or tweet me at jim cramer. can it be amazon? can a company be destroyed by the doll nance of the greatest online retailer