tv On the Money CNBC January 2, 2016 5:30am-6:01am EST
hi everyone. i'm becky quick. your phone and your home both getting smarter. and could a driverless car be coming your way? extreme training. an entrepreneur wanted to get in shape so he hired a navy seal to move in and train him. can he survive round the clock active duty? time to plan that get away to stretch the travel dollars. "on the money" starts right now. >> this is on the money. your money, your life, your future.
now. becky quick. >> 2016 and the interest rate rise is under way. we know we'll be electing a new president this year as well. beyond that, unknowns. john harwood has predictions on the political front. but first steve leisman on the fed's move in the year ahead. >> the big question for 2016, how many times will the federal reserve hike interest rates? that depends on inflation, jobs and the economy. inflation should continue to fall to the beginning of 2016 and then stabilize, assuming oil finds a bottom and the dollar doesn't surge. inflation would then move slowly higher. employment should down shift to a more sustainable level per month, more in line with labor force growth overall. economic growth would be slightly upwards 2.5% to 2% on average. all of that suggests fed raises
three times in 2016. my big call for 2016 a change in how the stock market reacts to the decline the oil prices. it final comes to realize low oil prices are good for the economy and rallies when prices fall other than the other way around. >> and we haven't been surprised by the 2015 phase of the presidential campaigns. when bernie sanders entered, who expected him to be leading former secretary of state and first lady hill rodham clinton in new hampshire by the end of the year. when blustery billionaire donald trump ended the race who expected him to be dominating the republican field pretty much everywhere. who expected that national security would be the dominate issue on the eve of the iowa caucuses. so with lots of humility he are three predictions for 2016. hillary clinton will be the
democrat nominee. donald trump will not be the republican nominee. once we get past the first couple of states and the field consolidates that is when donald trump will be vulnerable. >> american economy, not national security will be the focus of the 2016 when we get to election day. >> november seems a long way off but right now predictions on how the changes will hit your wallet. joining us jared bernstein and the cato institute's peter butler. injure jared, do you think we'll see additional hikes in the months to come. >> the federal reserve rate hike schedule, which is for three to four hikes next year is almost solely predicated on inflation. steve talked about inflation, jobs and growth. they are all in the mix. but if you look at their inflation prediction that is for
it to revert to form. to start rising much more close to their 2% target. and i think they are going to keep missing that in 2016. so i think there will probably be fewer hikes than most others predict. >> what does that mean for for most others who are sitting home with maybe credit card debt and mortgages. >> economic growth t employment picture, i'm expecting the economy to be a little lackluster. the labor market is not nearly as tight at the employment rate would suggest because we've had such a dramatic fall off in the labor force participation rate. so i'm not expecting interest rates to get away from us. >> you have an adjustable rate mortgage. would you be concerned enough to move into a fixed rate mortgage. >> i probably wouldn't. but fixed marges are at very
tractive levels. it is the best rates we've seen. so hitting that is attractive. >> i think so too. you know low gas prices is something the consumers have gotten used to over the course of this year. do you think that is going to be the rule for 2016? >> anyone who predicts they know where oil is going is pulling somewhat of a fast within on you. but i do actually take the forecast that we haven't even quite seen the bottom yet for the price of oil. that is kind of the consensus. and i think that will be the case. just the supply continues to be really on the upside. now, the price of gas is really remarkable. it is actually lower today than it was ten years ago in nominal terms. >> you heard from harwood. and his prediction would be that trump would not win the republican nomination. he also said that comes with a huge dose of humility. and any of the bun it thes who
volcano have been picking this have been wrong. >> i think it is going to be very interesting to see. what i characterize as a bit of a tug of war. trump is not seen as the conventional candidate who will have a very effective get out the vote effort, a ground game. but he's got such a lead. republicans don't sound like the party of limited government very much. no one is talking about cutting spending, reforming entitlements, etc. democrats are not talking about some of the issues we would expect them to stand up on. protecting civil liberties or being a little skeptical about the use of american power overseas. because some of the populous blueser is crowded out. traditional positions that we'd like to hear the parties talking about. >> let's talk about one of those issue, tax reform. it is something both sides agree needs to be tackled. however we've gotten just about
nowhere with that. i wouldn't expect anything to change in an election year but beyond that what do you think happens with tax reform. >> you can't turn around in washington without bumping into a politician who doesn't want to lower the corporate tax rate because our statutory rate is high but then broaden the base because we have so many loopholes. unlikely to have much happening in 2016. we could see something like that down the road. that depends a lot on who gets elected president. >> thank you both for joining us today. >> thank you. now here is a look at what's making news. it is no surprise that amazon is number one in sales and ekma ee-commerce after the holiday numbers are added up. 22 billion in sales this year. astounding 26% of all e-commerce sales in 2015, up from 22% last
year. after a year of gyrations and volatility t dow ended the year close to break even. some strength in the housing market. the kay shiller home price index saw prices fall in september. and the u.s. box office closed a at a record year. $11 billion mark in sales for the first time. up next we're on the money. it is a new year so what's on deck for tech? from virtual reality gaming to driverless cars we'll talk to experts about the biggest trends you'll see this year. and meet the entrepreneur who hired a navy seal to live with him and train with him for a month. and right now as we head to a
same way you would ask siri. you can ask about the weather and you can also place orders through the device and you can also control different smart electrons in your home. >> can you show us how she works. >> the command word is alexa. alexa tell me the weather. >> right now it is 34 degrees with cloudy skies. >> this is not very expensive. right now there are a million different connected gadgets you can put into your home, on your wrist and they are all speaking to wifi. but they all require a different portal to use them or interact. so you have to go to one app after another. devices like this or siri or google now allow a single interface to interact with all the devices and that is going to make ar break the industry in a lot of ways. people don't want to spend 40 minutes getting their home adjusted. >> let's talk about hover
boards. this was the hot item for a lot of kids. they're really cool but at the same time. >> dangerous. >> fires and explosions. >> yeah. >> what do we think. >> the it really was a hot item. and i can see why. they seem fun to use. until you go splat on your back. >> right. or until it fwlblows up. or want to talk about hot item, there is a hot item. >> i can see dwr they are aappealing. but they are a little dangerous. airlines have banned them. mike tyson taking a fall. they are sort of like segues with without handle bars. >> let's talk about driverless cars. we keep hearing just in the not to distant future. is 2016 the year we see driverless cars. >> i think it depends when you say driverless. if you talk about getting in and laying back and watching a
movie? that's not going to happen. but we're always seeing steps towards it. all the way back to cruise control. the camera that is viewing from the rear view and giving you picture that is learning about what the car can do in the future to do that for you. and even toid said in 2020 they want the car to take over for you on the highway. so the highway is an easier place for the car to match signs and other cars and take you from one ramp to an off ramp. and tesla has cars that can actually tell the speed limit on signs on the road and slow down or speed u. you will see incremental steps towards it. the bigger question is will a big tech company win the driverless car race or will an auto maker win it? >> what about virtual reality when it comes to gaming? what are the newest things you have seen? >> we saw samsung come out with a virtual reality headset this year t $99.
which is not nothing but definitely more affordable than the others we've seen. and the "new york times" use virtual reality to help tell stories for readers. it might not become mainstream. i don't think everyone is going to have a virtual reality head seth but i think it is going at least going to enter the lexicon for a lot of mainstream people out there. >> thank you for being here. up next we are "on the money." jesse its ler wanted a challenge so he hired a navy seal to live with his family, push him and train him to the limit. and later we'll tell you how to stretch the travel dollars and find the best bargains.
some entrepreneurs are born risk takers, game to try just about anything. for jesse itzler after co-founding one company he sold to warren buffett and working with another sold to coca-cola, the next risk was personal. jesse hired a navy seal to live with him and his family for a month long training and improvement. when i spoke with him recently i asked how he came up with the idea and why he did it. >> like so many of us we want to get better in the different buckets of our life. and i really wanted to get better in the physical bucket. i met seal, as he's called in
the book as a 24 hour ultramarathon. and i was doing it as a relay team. and saw him do the entire race alone. >> when you say 24 hour marathon. running for 24 hours strait. and you have teammates you're passing a baton to. and he's passing to nobody. >> nobody. and the race was self supported which means you brick your own supplies. we went over board with a tent and masseuses and food. and he sat by himself alone in a fold up dhar chair with a bottle of water and crackers and i'm like whatever he has in his mind i want a little bit of that in i'll be a lot better off. >> the normal response might be too say hey can you train with me for a little while. but you went full boor. >> i googled him after the race and just said i want to come out and meet with you. and literally after sitting with him and chatting for a couple of
minutes he had so much passion and determination. and that was a magnetism to him said i asked him to live with me. did you ask your wife first? >> after. honey, we're having a guest. yeah i sauld sara afterwards my wife. and i met this unbelievable guy and i asked him to live with us. we have a guest. >> you have a forgiving wife. how did life change then when the seal moved in. >> the first day he decided we were going to do a pull up test and see how many pull ups i could do. i went downstairs and i did eight, you know, kicking to get over the bar pull ups. and rest 30 seconds and get it again. and i got six. and rest do it one more time and i could barely do like three. and i'm done. i would barely feel my arms. and he said oh no we're not
done. we're going to do a hundred. and he taught me right on the spot that when i thought i was done there was more in the reserve tank. and every day he has a saying if it doesn't suck we don't do it. and it sucked. >> with what were some of the things you did that you weren't sure you could do. >> every four hours we would wake me up. we would run four miles for 48 hours. basically a marathon one day a marathon the next day but with no sleep. >> that sounds awful. those life lessons, are they transferring into your personal life and career as well. >> definitely. he had theme of being comfortable and getting uncomfortable and really pushing your limits and seeing how far you could push your limit and that's something that's been very rewarding for me. >> would you do this again or are there other life experiences that you're planning to do as
result. >> i would like this to be a series where i live with interesting people. it is one thick to here about something and read a book but when they come into your life and you can spend time. and whatever they have their edge or whatever makes them tick rubs off on to you, then it's really powerful. >> really appreciate it. up next on the mono, a look at the news for a week ahead. and vacation steals and deals. looking for a best bargain on a winter get away. the travel tips.
for more on our show and our guests you can go to our website and you can follow us on twitter @on the money. here are the stories that may impact your money this week. monday the institute supply management. and on tuesday auto makers announce last month's car sales. wednesday the federal reserve will release minutes from december's interest rate meeting. thursday we'll be getting a read on the retailers with the chain store sales and friday we'll see how many jobs were added and where the unemployment rate stands. by the way, happy birthday to the king, elvis presley was born january 2, in tupelo mississippi. and improving global economy outpaces increases in supply.
of course there are still deals to be had and joining us is terry johnson t host of travelist atv. she has recommendations and thank you for being here today. if i'm looking for a travel bargain where should i be looking now. >> there are some really great ones out there. to start is norwegian airways and they just launched direct flights from new york, boston and washington d.c. to martinique and guadalupe. this is the first time in 20 years there is an airline flying to these destinations. and the flights start slowest $79 one way. free wifi and free live tv streaming. >> so give this a try while you can, while it is young. >> yeah. and the deals are only lasting until this april. >> i'm really concerned about stretching dollars. what are best ways to do that. >> >> you can go the all inclusive route. they are really gad great deals,
especially for family vacations. if you were do go to the websites of the resorts and sign up for the news letter, the flash deals. you have you have to stay pretty active to really find the great deals. >> what about can kids. >> there are amazing places to travel with kids. there are places in florida. the sand pearl resort there clearwat clearwater. and you can go to places like costa rica that have chocolate rain forest tours. >> tell me that again? >> some of the best chocolate comes from costa rica. at the tabacon resort you can find really interesting things for kids. the environment. tree planting activities, volcano hiking. all sorts of things for families have kids that are super active. >> what are about super easy.
all inclusive. >> also cruising is great. river cruising. the viking river cruise is a really good one. they have a lot of really good deals where you can get sometimes two for one. sometimes you can get 50% off of the price. especially if you book in advance. but what happens is these river cruises, they are going no matter what. >> that's the show for today. i'm becky quick. thanks so much for joining me. next week the affordable care act is due for its check up. obamacare costs are rising but is it improving? we'll check it out. have a great one and we'll see you next weekend.
>> narrator: in this episode of "american greed"... they're called the "bling ring," a fast crowd of celebrity wannabes. >> accused of robbing some of hollywood's hottest young stars of jewelry and other items. >> narrator: and now they talk to "american greed." >> our culture in hollywood is extravagant. >> some people might strive to go to medical school. i guess in the l.a. area, young people strive to have rolex watches. >> narrator: but the bling ring steals more than jewelry. >> they weren't primarily motivated by money. they were almost taking pieces of the fame.