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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  January 7, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

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job creation. the big number mike and i were talking at the break was wages. >> going to sleep tonight watching that china market? >> absolutely. >> thank you for joining me. that's it for us on "closing bell" we hands things off to "fast money." >> thank you. fast money starts right now live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square. i'm melissa lee. the man who correctly called the dollar rally over a year ago and august swoon says the recession is here and things could get worse. plus another day, another low for apple. almost 30% off its may highs. could this be your best chance to buy it? or has apple become a no touch stock? oil hitting a 12-year low today. one of the institutional investors top energy analyst says crude could triple in the next two years. first we start off with breaking news on the street.
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dow off to its worst start ever. both in correction territory. here is what's different and scary about today's sell-off. we lost the market leadership. facebook, amazon, netflix now in correction territory. it wasn't just the so-called fang stocks. nike, home depot, general electric. these were the dow's leaders last year. now we are losing them. guy, what should investors do at home? >> not a good sign, right? you've got to be respectful of a day like today. steve's technical levels held up. if you listen to brian and dan, everything they talked about is starting to come to fruition. i understand that people are by definition bullish and want things to go higher. gives us no great joy to talk about a market that is broken right now. what should they be looking for tomorrow? if you're bullish, which most people are, i think you're hoping we gap open lower tomorrow. somewhat counterintuitive. you hope it trades down to 1920 in the s&p and hope we rally and
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give you some reprieve from the weekend. if you're bearish, want the exact opposite to happen. you hope for an open 20, 25 points higher. i think we push down towards those levels we saw in august. 1820. i think in the interim, this 1920 level in the s&p is critical. >> i think the latter is going to happen tomorrow. we are going to wind up with jobs friday. we'll wind up opening higher. 1969 is that level in the s&p cash. below that is 19 30shgs below that 1867. there is no reason for the market to stop. it's 1820 and then it gets really ugly and really dangerous. i don't think that's going to happen tomorrow. i think we'll trade higher then maybe flat to lower. >> a lot of what happens tomorrow is going to be dictated by what happens in china, correct? this is a session where they don't have the circuit breakers
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in place before. remember back in august we would wake up and it would be 40% of the markets were halted. >> right. we had a circuit breaker crash, 5% down 7%. then rumors they will let the currency flow 10%. i don't know how the market is going to react to all this news. this is a lot of information to digest. what do investors at home do? stay in cash. if you have ridden this market up -- >> what happens if you're not in cash? >> even down 10% on the dow. correction territory, sell your position? >> absolutely. >> i don't want to sell my position. >> the person is going to lose
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money. >> it's going to 1620 which would be a 20% correction which would not be that unusual in markets in general. you sell them tomorrow. >> i would just say you don't have to be a bull or bear. you got here. you're this far. the writing's been on the wall. if you talk about or just consider the volatility we've seen globally in risk assets the world over, the fact that now the s&p is down 10% from the all-time highs, we know they corrected back in august 11%. it could clearly go down there. the technical stuff is important because there is so much uncertainty right now. we have no idea what is going to happen in china. the best possible thing to happen would be some capitulation near term in china tomorrow morning. have some sloppy down 10% thing. they rally them a little bit,
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then we come in, we open lower and rally and calm. >> we know pretty much what people don't want to buy based on today's session. we don't want to buy right now the market leaders. we don't want to buy the banks. what do we buy? do we buy gold at nine-week highs or the tlt bonds? utilities didn't see a bid today. >> talk about tlt real quick. the weakness early today in the tlt which is the ten-year bond effectively was coming forth because you saw liquidation potentially out of china. you noticed late in the day you did get a rally in the tlt which makes perfect sense. i think yields go lower. a lot of people have written off gold saying it's dead in the water. i think it's still alive and the trade has room to the upside we talked about retailers monday which outperformed. look at macy's. look at what macy's did in the after market yesterday and look how well it traded today.
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a lot of us think there is a chance we trade lower, there are trades to be made on the long side. >> there is a retail conference next week. there are so many companies that are going to be presenting there that the investment community that knows about this conference is getting ahead of it. there will be a lot of positive things said about it. american eagle outperformed and will continue to do so. utilities on a performance basis, people looking for yield, hide there. that doesn't mean they are not going down. >> i disagree on retail. they are getting this dead cat bounce there. there are massive secular shifts. >> i'm just saying it's ahead of an event. >> i understand. obviously the ten-year yield is 2.25%, something like that. look at treasuries and utilities that have 3%, 5% yield. look at u.s. telcos.
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it's traded well here. >> the point is understanding there is obviously risks to appreciation or lack thereof. >> i would buy gold as well. it's performing well. gdp, you get a dividend. the global market crisis spooking everybody today. soros said china has a major adjustment problem i would say tantamount to a crisis. it reminds me of the cite sis we had in 2008. the publisher of the global macro investor and you want to listen to him because he correctly predicted the dollar surge last year and said stocks are going lower in july. raoul, great to have you on the show.
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are we facing a crisis that would equal or surpass 2008? >> i think he is talking about china. china is certainly a big mess and likely to get worse. even whether they devalue the currency sharply or lower, it's still to work out with all the debts in the system. >> do you think with all the volatility in the stock market, and let's just say they do devalue the yuan by 10% to 15% which reuters reported earlier today. would that have an impact here in the u.s.? are we so far gone in terms of our road to recession that it doesn't make a difference at this point? >> i think the u.s. is winding its own path to recession. if china does devalue 15% overnight, i think it's positively positive in asia short term. might bring relief rallies. then see what the global economy does. if it continues to the nobody good, everything will roll over again. >> in terms of recession in the united states, you've been on the program saying you believe it is happening. recessions usually are not
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declared until after they hafsh happened. where are we right now? you say that investors are missing this one critical chart that has to do with exports. >> global exports have fallen, according to the imf, it's the second lowest level since 1958. something massive is going on in the global economy. people are missing it by looking at the financial markets. the data is terrible out there. >> raoul, the banks should do well. deutsche bank is one of the highest exposures in the world in terms of a derivative book. where do you stand on that? is deutsche bank the most exposed to this global contagion? >> i think deutsche bank is problematic. i don't like the share price chart. i think hsbc, standard charter are a group of banks that worry
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me. >> i think earlier this week on twitter, you said could you see ten-year yields trading down to 1.2%. correct me if i got that incorrect. that flies in the face of just about what everybody else is saying. if that is the case, what happens to the yield curve? >> yeah. that makes me comfortable. i honestly think one of the best in the world right now is to own tlt. i think the yield curve goes a little bit lower. gets down to maybe 50 basis points which is where japan gets to in a recession. that's where we're going. i think this level is indicating a recession already. >> what are the trades right now that you have the most conviction in? are they tilted trades, short markets? >> i don't think there are many easy opportunities on the long side. the risk it market is showing you is to the down side. people are positioned wrongly. i think the bond market is much
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easier bet because everybody is the other way around. that makes me find that very attractive. that's where i am. i think emerging markets continue weaker and dollar continues higher against the large basket of currencies. >> thank you for phoning in. see you soon. raoul pal, publisher of the global macro investor. when you think last year, easy trade was to crowd onto growth at a reasonable price. we know what those names are. when you think about amazon down 10%, and there are a lot of people who will sound the same this week as they did two weeks ago about amazon's prospects, they are going to be wrong when they continue down that path. in 2015, a stock like amazon gained $150 billion in market cap and shed $30 billion. we know an apple is showing, disney showing us great stories that positioning where it's just the wrong way. they will overshoot on the down side. that's the risk to try and pick a bottom. >> if the market continues to sell off. you are right.
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if the market rallies back, all those names will probably tick up and outperform the overall market. there is a lack of ideas on the street right now. they are going to rush back into them. >> that wouldn't be healthy. coming up, the biggest bull on the street, tom lee is buying the dip. he has the three stocks he says could thrive in this market route. >> apple shares slashing price targets to keep up. are they still too bullish? oil hitting fresh 12-year lows. one analyst says the commodity is about to triple in the next two years. he explains why. those new glasses? they are. do i look smarter? yeah, a little. you're making money now, are you investing? well, i've been doing some research. let me introduce you to our broker. how much does he charge? i don't know. okay. uh, do you get your fees back if you're not happy?
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money." apple slump is showing no signs of letting up. today rbc becoming the latest firm to cut its price target on the stock down to $130 from $140. check this out, this is the average price target on the street for apple. it's now at $145 compared to the
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actual price of apple which is below $100. the street is too bullish on apple or maybe this is your ultimate chance to buy thinking those analysts are going to be right on. >> i wonder what dan will say? >> i think it's a matter of sentiment. when those $145 price targets were happening when the stock was going from $120 to $130. there was reason to be bullish because of the price achblgts there is a whole confluence of events. to me it has a lot to do with positioning. the street has to get their arms around a company that is growing sales and earnings that hasn't demonstrated a heck of a lot of innovation. that's just the fact. are going to get a shock. the long-term uptrend from the 2009 low is somewhere in the mid $80s. pick at it in the low $90s. >> the flash crash low was $92.
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in terms of apple, a source of funds is down 30% from its highs in may. how much longer is this going to be a source of funds or is this a barometer for the markets where it's separated from valuation based on fear because it's a barometer for china, barometer for u.s. growth, et cetera? >> we know sales in 2 china are slowing. that was the growth engine. let's look outside apple. we know the chinese phone suppliers themselves are outside china to find new customers. that negative sentiment still has to wash itself out. i'm with dan. i wouldn't look at it until it has an $80 handle on it. there will be a time to buy it. everybody will turn negative. remember that chart with the price things? this starts to turn back up again, wait for that point. >> $102 is the level dan flagged. you saw it bounce from it one
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day. we play the game on this show sometimes, if you look at a chart and didn't have the four letters aapl, you would say this looks like a broken chart. the stock clearly isn't doing what people said it was. regardless of people saying it's in the name, clearly, it's not in the name. the other side of the apple bull story which everybody knows is, they effectively make things people want to buy. they make products everybody wants to own. you have to realize their products are ubiquitous. the things they make, other people make, as well. at its core it's a hardware company. >> people want to own the apple product lines. last time bk and i debated this, it's 07 the iphone. >> everybody has one. >> everyone does not have one. >> there's a lot more penetration left. there is going to be a new iteration of the watch. >> let's move beyond apple.
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focus on google here. google is going to have the largest market cap in the u.s. market here. that's happening as we see it. >> we can stop talking about apple. you know where to buy it. >> because it's gone. >> it's over. >> the bigger problem is google right now. >> it could be google. this is a company that is not amazon or facebook. this company has real earnings. >> it is expensive relative to the market multiple. if we are in this market, this makes me nervous here. >> it's only growing in the teens if that decelerates, it's i going to be expensive. >> google, trouble ahead. >> i don't think google is as expensive as dan says. it's hard to replicate what they are doing. i understand in terms of the market will move from apple to google. >> in terms of rates and cash. still ahead, think stocks
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are cheap after this week's sell-off? think again. we'll give you the math that says the s&p is going to 1750. i'm melissa lee and you're watching "fast money." here is what's coming up. i'm as mad as hell and i'm not going to take this any more. >> that's how investors in energy stocks feel because a top analyst says oil could triple in the next year and he'll tell us what the bears are missing. plus -- the world's biggest bull tom lee says there are three dow stocks that are screaming buy right now. he'll tell us the names.
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welcome back to "fast money." a brutal start in 2016 to oil investors. the bearish finish driven by china demand. one of institutional investors' top analyst says prices could triple in the next two years. two years seems so far away considering the pain that we have seen over the past two years. tell me, are we closer to 25 or
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50 in the next year? >> forecast i think is about $40, $45 for the full year. i guess we are going to go up from here. we broke around $33 today, which is a 14-year low. as you said, that's the story in that past 14 years was china up and down. it looks like a rough year, it has to be said. we were hoping for maybe an opec cut in june. we really need iran and saudi to be agreeing on a cut. they don't look like they are going to agree on anything let alone an opec cut. >> what is the biggest risk to that forecast for this year? >> on the down side recession. people are now worried this is just -- >> in your view is that a possible wild card or is that sort of like black swan wild card? >> it's definitely a possibility, no question about that. one thing i would say in '08/'09, gasoline demand held up.
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our bull case is about gasoline demand being strong. distillate, diesel collapsed in '09. gasoline demand was flat. we are okay with refining. our best case scenario is not for a full blown recession but our strategist is negative on the year. >> what are the stocks you like right now? i'm wondering how much $45 changes the thesis for some of your coverage stocks? if there is a true recession risk in your view which is a real possibility. >> do you want to own anything in your space? >> at a given point if things get bad enough, big oils will outperform on balance sheet. what we've done is we've got a thesis which is 1/3, 1/3, 1/3. 1/3 s&ps are going to zero. 1/3 will struggle recovering from the balance sheet deterioration we'll see this year. then 1/3 is good balance sheet,
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good rock quality. the question is are they going to survive? that topped pioneer and oxy. >> outperform on balance sheet doesn't mean outperform on stock price. >> if it gets really rough, you'll find that exxon outperformed the market significantly. people will flight. there's only three aaa companies globally which exxon and oil is obviously the only one. therefore, if things, if you are super negative, you can hide in oil. ultimately, possibly if you really want to be negative holding cash, you might find this safer. or you can just hide. >> okay. paul, thank you. >> a pleasure. >> all options, i guess. >> you don't have to be in energy right now. if you are going to be in, the bigger names are the place you want to be. you could lose some of the dividend on these. if we are not in a scenario
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where there is a v-shape recovery and we have something like the '80s where we trade $20 and $40 for five years, some of these companies have to cut their dividend. >> nobody saw $105 down to $47 in wti. when you look at the fundamentals, i think you can make a case for $45 or $50. i made the case we are going back to $20 a barrel. i think that's where we are going. $20. >> no matter what you hear out of the middle east, it's the same way gold couldn't trade up. you had the perfect scenario for gold to trade up. coming up, emerging markets have taken a beating with the massive selling in china. one trader bet more than $6 million that the pain will continue well into the middle of the year. we'll tell you how well. >> the man who called the bear market on this show is back. you will not believe where he says stocks could be heading next. the simple math that says sell the s&p.
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welcome back to "fast money" brutal concerns as china continued to rock the market. s&p, dow and nasdaq all falling over 2%. the dow and s&p with the worst start to the year ever. full coverage in "markets in turmoil" at 7:00 p.m. tonight. the countdown to china is officially on. less than three hours until china's stock market opens. we are on the ground in shanghai with what you need to know about what could be another tumultuous trading session. the biggest bull on wall street. talking to the man with a 2300 price target on the s&p 500. he is three stocks that could survive these volatile times. first we turn our attention to the market. back in september, our next guest made a pretty big call
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about stocks. take a listen. >> we have declining prices with almost no sectors and uptrends. we are in a bear market. >> stocks rallied since then but are now facing a vicious sell-off. despite the sharp drop, the man behind the call says stocks are expensive. let's go off the charts with carter worth. what do you see now? >> mean reversals are power principles. things to overshoot or undersho undershoot. let's roll through big names. nike, pe $29. this is a ten-year chart. we are well above where we were at the prior peak in '07. let's do this quickly. home depot, at or near a ten-year high. why can't it be $21? costco. at or near an all-time high. why can't it be $26? under armour $79. above where it was in '07.
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who is to assign a multiple when growth is in question? monster beverage $48. at or near highs. mcdonald's, you know? for a company that has had a great period lately, but we shall see. here is what we know. if you divide the s&p into growth and value, the s&p pure growth index is trading at 26 times. that's a lot of the names we looked at. the pure value which got beaten down energy names and certain financials is trading at $11. put it together our current trailing multiple in the s&p is 17.4. the long term average is 16.1. four multiples are guesswork. you can only going on earnings in hand. what if the market were to go to a 16 multiple on 112 earnings? that's the trailing number. there probably is no earnings growth in the next 12 months. let's assign not a 17.4 multiple but 16.1. we are up here at 17.4 which is
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higher wrn we were in the '07 peak. multiples always spike when the denominator collapses. we are going to give this 17.4 and put it to a 16.1. that would put is exactly on this line which would be our average multiple is 1950. it would put you exactly still within this sort of ascending channel the market has been going. what if the multiple is not average? what if it's 50.50? you are talking 1680 on s&p. presumption is minimum 1800. i think lower from there. >> when i take a look at that chart, it seems to follow that channel nicely. why would we not believe stocks would bounce off that lower 1800 level? >> first thing is to say it is going there. that is the basis of the conversation. let's say it gets to an average multiple 16. why does it with this macro environment trade an average?
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why can't it trade lower than average? when you overshoot the channel, you typically can undershoot the channel. to have a reciprocal of that overshoot would be something i think we are not going to maintain an average multiple. >> is there going to be a test on this? this is unbelievable. >> it's good stuff. >> this is some of his best work. what he is basically -- jishgts is. >> that was a great question. his answer was even better. markets overshoot. clearly, we've done overshooting to the up side. good chance it does to the down side. if the market starts to come off, people will be concerned with multiples. multiples will contract by definition and overshoot to the downside. the numbers maintain us in this long-term bull market yet will feel painful in the foreseeable future. >> in 2006 s&p earnings were about $96. you know where they were in 2008? went down to $17.
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if you have a sustained earnings decline -- this is the first type s&p earnings are expected to decline almost 5% this quarter. everything you hold dear about your growth at a reasonable price, think about the environment we are in. >> this is not supposition. look at the irs tax receipts for corporate profits. they have been falling for the last two quarters. let's now extrapolate that. carter's work is saying he's just assuming flat earnings at $112. what if they are down 4%, 5%? and you put a 15 multiple. >> carter, according to all those multiples, it seems to me the best place to be in the market would be value base on multiples, especially if you are baking in the fact we go down to a 15 blended multiple for s&p 500. is that the case?
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do you see the value stocks that chart looks better? >> sure. that's how you start to get to the beginning of the end which is to say first you have the damage you've got. then you start to lose your great high fliers. you start to lose things like starbucks and home depot when held up well. at some point as you're inferring, it's better to be in value. >> carter, thank you. >> you heard the bear case for the market. let's get the bull case. tom lee has a target on the s&p 500, an impressive 2300. he is one of the biggest bulls on the street. up till now he has been right. not last year, tom good. to see you. we just heard the bear case here. you came on new year's eve and presented your case for 2300. nothing changes based on volatility we've seen? >> there's obviously some message in the market. we started four years -- four
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days into the year down 5%. i think investors are really gloomy. i think what i'm struggling with is thinking about the things that markets, weighing on the markets. are these going to be conditions as we exit 2016? i don't see that. i think it's office lie dejecting. >> you stick by 2300. what are the stocks you see as the best bets in the year? >> one of the things we think is a strategy for 2016 is to really look at stocks trading like bonds. dividend yield is above their bond yield. this is true for a lot of investment grade stocks. there's about 137 large cap companies where dividends yields are higher than bond yields. these are high quality businesses. walmart, caterpillar, ge, cisco.
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these are cheaper than their bonds. >> you like walmart. what do you make of the big move so far in 2016 for walmart? it seems to be outperforming the market. is this a dead cat bounce? >> it's hard to tell because we are four days in. one thing notable was last year walmart was one of your biggest drags on the s&p in terms of point contribution. it's similar to how google and amazon for the big point drags in 2014 and became big stars in 2015. what you want to think about is in 2016, it's not as much about fang. it's much more about value outperforming in stocks as the new bonds. >> walmart is an interesting one people love to see a green stock in a bad market. especially one down almost 20% last year. when i look at this and i look how badly retail acted, this is a multiyear thing going on here. this is a company that manufactured earnings for so
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long. 2016 estimates have not come down enough. we knew they took them to the wood shed the last year. to me i actually think this is an absolute bear trap here to get people sucked in. i think you are going to see this below $60. do you do that fundamental work? >> i don't do that type of work. my team does look into it. walmart is making investors on e-commerce and the cloud channel. you don't want to necessarily say you should take out equity value because they are making these investments. >> you've got to look at macy's last year they started 2015 saying what you said that walmart is doing and the stock got cut in half. >> i don't know macy's valuation. walmart has a dividend yield above its bond yield. unless you think there's risk to the dividend k, i do think you've got valuation support here. >> great to hear your perspective today.
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tom lee of fun stat. show of hands, bull or bear? >> this is going to be bad. >> bear? >> yeah. >> you're not bearish? >> i want to see what the other guys are going to do first. >> we can't be a collective group. >> i think we can say we are going to test the 1867 mark. >> and everyone out there is going to say we are not now. >> the market needs a test of the 1867 mark. we might get close. it might bounce before that. good thing for people watching at home, look at the stocks you own and see where they were at in that date in august when the market touched 1867. look at that as a point of reference. >> let's combine it all and say we are all right. we go to 1860. we nail the number. what do you do then? look at cisco. that combined everything. >> you like tom's pick? >> at 2015.
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>> better than your dental pick last night. >> cisco at 23 is going to have an interesting dividend. it's going to be 13 times trailing. 11 times forward earnings. you have the value carter worth was looking at. if we are all right you get to 1860, you buy cisco. less than three hours away from the open in china following a crazy overnight session that sparked a global sell-off. what can we expect? did china just lose control of its markets? we'll head out to asia for a special "fast money" report after this.
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welcome back to "fast money" where we are less than three hours away from friday's market open in china. this follows a tumultuous thursday where chinese securities regulators suspended their circuit breaker system effectively halting date's session. this was set up to occur when losses exceed 7%. overall, all chinese shares were active for only 15 minutes in thursday's session. shanghai it's friday morning and
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"wall street journal" senior correspondent andrew browne is on the ground. great to have you with us. what do you think will happen now that the circuit breakers are in place? i feel it's almost a coin toss whether it will be good or bad for the markets. >> good morning. you talked about the authorities losing control. i think that's exactly what has happened. they lost control because they managed to thoroughly confuse domestic investors and international investors. it's a problem that is largely of the government's own making. the problem as i see it is a contradiction which is right at the very heart of their policy making process, which is on the one hand they want markets to make their system more flexible, more efficient, and yet on the other hand, an authoritarian government cannot bring its to loosen controls. it's the controls they are
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putting in place causing the confusion there. they are poorly conceived, badly executed. this latest one was comically bad. so you had 15 minutes of trading on thursday. at the end of trading, they huddled together to make this panic decision they are going to dump this circuit breaker arrangement leaving everybody to the conclusion, not unreasonable, that the market makers haven't a clue what they are doing. >> it goes back further. it's not just the circuit breakers ill conceived and ill executed, but the ban on selling expected to be raised friday which they double backed on. seems like every step of the way they changed the rules depending on how the markets are doing. we'll find a way to prop them up. is the biggest risk here that institutional investors or investors on the mainland lose confidence in the markets all together? >> yeah. i think they are losing
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confidence in the markets. i think the panic signal the regulators are sending out gives investors the impression they are seeing something in the underlying economy that nobody else is seeing. in other words, the economy is doing way worse than people think. that's particularly true in the currency markets where they are inexplicably bringing down the currency. market participants believe or they are starting to be convinced the government wants a prolonged devaluation of the rmb to do something about an economy in freefall. >> andrew, thank you for phoning in. andrew browne of the "wall street journal" on the ground in shanghai. i'm glad andrew brought up that last point. traders around the world are obsessed with conspiracy theories. traders think the government knows something they don't know.
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>> and the i'm lehere to tell y nobody knows anything. you can make bets here and there, but nobody has the answer. what china has done has actually really confused everybody. i agree with andrew on that. i would watch the currency. that's where the capital flow is. >> the markets started declining. when we first started looking at china it was 10% growth. guys are whispering it's 2% growth. now with circuit breakers, there is a total loss of confidence. i would bet today you are going to see them do whatever they can to stabilize that market. >> we'll see about the yuan. the yuan is the biggest concern there in terms of allowing it to depreciate. >> the stock market is a function of the bigger problem which is the currency moves which they seemingly have no
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control over. >> the bigger problem is they lost control of their currency market which is extraordinarily dangerous. up next, the big bearish bet banking on an emerging market melt doup. it was a trade that raised eyebrows in the pits. [ male announcer ] eligible for medicare?
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can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. seema mody. >> barracuda networks falling in after hours trade. security and storage companies first quarter earning missed while revenues in line. the ceo said billings and indications of future orders came in below expectations. shares lost about 65% in the last 12 months. right now after hours looking at the stock down as much as 17%. >> thank you, seema mody. aside from a very few number of cyber security stocks last year, all of them were down across the board in this market environment which you believe s&p 500 could test 1800.
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do you want to be in any of this? >> you look at palo alto with ridiculous valuation. they had great runs into the summer we talked about them rolling over and how vulnerable they looked. this is an historic low for barracuda if we opened here. i do think it's an important space but you've got to stay away from it. >> emerging markets got slammed again. one trader betting more than $6 million there is more pain to come. >> largest trade in the options market was emerging market etf. 2/3 of holdings within that etf are china-related here. there was a big roll down and out when etf was around 3020. they were rolling them down to the $25 strike in june.
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that's $6.2 million in premium. that breaks even on june expiration down to $24.20. down about 20%. i suspect going that far out of the money, this is likely a hedge against emerging market portfolio. here is the one-year chart of eem. we see what's going on here. it broke today. a new closing low below that august low. august 24th here. this is the big one. this is the ten-year chart here. there is not a whole heck of a lot of support below $30. that's where it closed below here. $25 is kind of your next level of support here. the way i see this, if you want to make a bearish bet, you wouldn't look to june or 20% out of the money. it could be a decent hedge against emerging market part folio stocks. >> in a world where emerging markets falls apart, is there a
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point at which u.s. stocks become a safe haven, so therefore, relatively outperforms? >> yes, but i think that bet is long in the tooth. i think you are going to see the whiplash of that happen and all that weakness is going to catch up to us. >> more options action check out the full show tomorrow at 5:30. >> i missed it. >> i'm sure you have. coming up on "mad money," cramer is unveiling his take on the market turmoil. how you should react. >> with all the trouble overseas, cramer is talking to a home grown play that could paint your portfolio green, rpm international. final trade. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no.
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it's all about understanding patterns. like the mail guy at 3:12pm every day or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday. jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. td ameritrade.
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final trade time. >> if you have profits, take them. >> american eagle. into that conference. >> sell the deutsche bank. long-term play, 36 months. >> guy? >> got a little time here. we try to be measured and
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honest. gold market i think is breaking out. gdx. >> all right. i'm melissa lee. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast." "mad money" with jim cramer starts at 6:00. at . my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to entertain but educate and put into perspective. call me or tweet me @jimcramer. >> this market should go up and the dow plunging through.


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