tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC January 15, 2016 12:00pm-1:01pm EST
that would be interesting to see if you can rally from here. that's not the indication at the moment. >> mike said no one wants to be the hero going into a long weekend. art pointed out that we an expiration happening later in the afternoon. always volatile session. we will turn it over to the second half of the trading day. thanks for joining us and have a great weekend. >>. >> thanks so much. welcome to the halftime show. want to introduce you to our starting line-up for today. jim leventhal is here, along with steven weiss, josh brown, and john. we begin with breaking news on the markets. stocks plunging today as concerns over global growth and a full blown currency crisis in asia intensify. china shares down big overnight. the russian ruble getting hammered, among other currencies. crude down 5%. the ten-year yield has dropped below 2%. that is a three-month low there. steve weiss, when you look at the markets now, you do have the dow 13% off its 52-week high. the s&p 12%.
the nasdaq firmly in correction tirtory and approaching perhaps bear market territory. what is confuse issing we have never seen this in terms of being a global market and a global economy. you sort of have to throw out the old playbooks, but you know, time will cure all ills. the question is how long will that take? you are seeing massive capital outflows out of china, as we talked about it earlier in the week. there's wild speculation. this point they remove the pay. that gives you an idea of how important it is. china is really going to get in their horse. larry fink said, you know, absolutely appropriately. very diplomatically. there's confusion over there.
>> the damage done to areas of this market is stunning over the last couple of weeks alone. financials just this week are getting hammered, but over the last two weeks almost every major financial institution stock is down double digit percentage points. as we're watching the s&p 500 today, we're a mere handful of points above the august intraday low on the s&p that the market clearly seems intent on retesting. when you look at the trend and the russell. then to just say this is about china, i think is a little bit
disingenuous. look at the biotech sector. down 30%. what does it have to do with chinese currency? nothing. it's a bigger issue than that. i do think there are some analog that is are worth looking at. i will point out two very quickly. in 1984 you have the oil companies blowing up. if that sounds familiar, it's very similar situation to now. it was not a global recession. it was a scenario where we just had gotten ahead of ourselves. we needed correct. that could still be the case here. another one, 1998. there was a rolling currency crisis. if that sounds familiar, welcome to 2016. first it hitter latin america and asia. by the time it was over until 1998, the s&p 500 corrected 20%. these things do happen. there is a sem blens of a playbook, but, of course, there are always various differences. >> explain china real quickly. you say it's disingenuous. it's not.
it's a risk off trade. the sector does unbelievably well, and if you are nervous about the markets, you are going to sell everything. >> i actually believe there's not enough blood in the street. we will probably have to test the markets lower. i think when we test the markets lower, it's going to be a pretty good buying opportunity. >> how much lower? >> okay. let's welcome in one of wall street's most successful money managers now to discuss mr. fink's comments and the markets. leon cooperman, the chairman and ceo of omega advisors. welcome back. it is good to hear from ow a day like this. >> it's nice to be helpful. i've been too optimistic, so i
don't know whether my words of wisdom are worth listening to or not, but we'll see. >> it certainly is, if anything, a voice of calm within a storm of red on wall street since the beginning of this year. what do you make of what larry fink had to say this morning on ""squawk box"?" >> larry is a very smart man, and is he worth listening to. even though the market is down, i guess, about 10% year-to-date, 13% from the high, he was bullish all of last year. it's something to be concerned about. in may of last we're the high yield index was 6.3. if you take out 4.5% back in may now and equally importantly was 127 basis points points over treasuries, and it's now
basically 179 basis points. i think this is affecting larry's thinking. he is too pessimistic, but we'll have to wait and see. >> are you not as concerned or at all concerned that what we're witnessing within high yield within the credit market could spread more broadly in a more dramatic and negative way? i will read something that will sound humorous to you. a friend of mine sent me a little few sentences, which i'll read to you, and what it is is a technical analyst and a fundamental analyst are chatting about the markets in the kitchen. accidentally one of them knock az kitchen knife off the table landing right in the fundamental analyst's foot. the fundamental analyst yells at the technician asking why he
didn't catch the knife. he responds. you know technicians don't catch falling knives. the technician responded he in turn asked the fundamental analyst why he didn't move his foot out of the way. the fundamental analyst responds i didn't think it could go that low. i'm trying to figure out what is at play. the dodd frank and volcker rule have -- the commission structure provides no real estate ward for brokers to take risk. the specialist system has been destroyed. i think the s.e.c. made a very big mistake in 1900 -- in 2007. in 1938 they enacted the uptick rule. the that worked well for 70 odd years, and then in july of 2007 they eliminated the uptick rule, which i think gave rise or aided and abetted all these quantity takive trading strategies, systems that, are largely momentum based and not fundamental based.
they're in the business of buying strength, selling weakness which exacerbates the moves in the market, which are scaring the hell out of individuals and frankly professionals and it's not a good thing. so i don't know how much of that is at play in the market versus whether the market is right in forecasting an oncoming recession. what i have said in your program in the past and what has served me well for over 50 years of investing is generally speak, the bear markets are associated with one of four factors. being factor number one and most importantly is the stock market smells an oncoming recession and declines in anticipates of right session. i don't know whether it's -- there's a soft spot going on but no signs of recession. the kind of things you look for declining employment, rising unemployment, increasing initial claims for unemployment. none of this is forecasting recession, and they don't see a recession.
that's number one of my thinking. number two reason to you have a bear market is the market became pricing very skwloip, overvalued, and vulnerable to a big decline. he traced out the ark by saying bull markets are born of pessimism. they grow as skepticism and mature in optimism, and due in euphoria. well, pessimism was gone. we've been flukt waiting, but i don't see any signs of euphoria in the market. the market as we speak at the moment is 15 times earnings. not unreasonable or over valued. particularly attractive relative -- the 15 multiple happens to be about in line with the 68-year average unless 60 years from the multiple of 15 with 667, currently two, okay? you got the teb-year is a third of what it's normally been. the multiple is in line with what has been normal.
>> sure. >> and the u.s. t bills average i think about 5% in the last 50 or 60 years. currently near zero. there are no signs of euphoria. you go back six or eight months ago, and maybe biotech was overvalued. you could argue about the fang stocks. third quarter of the bear market is a geopolitical event that by definition is forecast. you got to say gold is not taking you about any geopolitical event. the fed takes the punch out of the punch bowl, and it's been reluctant to move. i'm of the view that the market is going down to be bought. when i started the year, i think i said on your program -- i said it's a fair valuation. the big catch-up is behind us. if you take 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, those four years and average them, the real gdp grew. the cpi average 1.3% for the
four years. the treasury of bond ajing 2.2%, and the t bill rate was zero. if you sat on cash, you earn zero for four years. in that same four-year period, you make 16.5% per an emin the stock market. that game is over. you don't make 16% in the stock market. i think if we don't have recession, which is my bet, basically and my that the average common stock in 2016 will perform better and catch up with the fang, and if the market is forecasting recession, not a structural issue, then i think fang drops to catch up to the average common stock. >> have you -- because it clearly sounds like you think we're in more of a growth scare than heading towards a recession, have you been a buyer of stocks within this weakness that we've seen since the beginning of the year? >> it will be perfectly honest,
i came in recently fully invested. i don't believe this environment merits one being on margin. i don't think this environment, you know, is the cause of heroic actions. i'm there. i guess i would say that i'm not selling. 1850 low. 2,200 high. about two weeks ago, i kind of reached a conclusion maybe i would think in terms of 14% and 17 multiple. that one multiple reduction, to be honest with you, is as much of a dissatisfaction with leadership around the world. you know, i don't want to get involved in politics too much, but basically, you know, the isis folks have killed indonesians, killed americans, killed the french, killed the russians, and they've killed the english. yet, we cannot get a coalition around the world together to wipe out these s.o.b.'s.
okay? there's no leadership, and, you know, multiples are a function of confidence. they're a function 6 interest rates. okay? near a function of growth rates. right now confidence is being shaken, but you don't want to kind of react. you want to anticipate. i think we're in the area of the low vicinity. i would only change my mind if i reached a conclusion we're heading into recession, and we look at retail sales and overall economic activity. i think it's a soft patch rather than recession. if you take out foreign exchange, it seems to be up 5%. jp penny, which is more -- sales were up 4%. overall i think, you know, retail sales are okay, and the consumer is in a good position. you know, energy on the top of everybody's mind. bottom line, you buy natural gas to heat your home, if you buy heating oil to heat your home, if you put gasoline in your car, you got enormous tax cut.
that's got to be viewed as a plus. >> the wild card, lee, in all of this, of course, is the fed and what the fed is intent on doing and what the fed may actually do. what's your best? >> i don't look at the fed as a wild card, to be honest with you. you know? who thinks that 15 times earnings the market is discounting 2% government rates and zero treasury rate. >> on average it's been 2.5 years. the fed raising rates and i assume they raise rates with the economy continuing to move ahead. it is indicative of an improving economy, rising earnings, rising dividends, and a positive economic environment. the stock market is already discounting higher rates. i think the stock market discount soming combination of slower secular economic growth or higher interest rates. the fact is discounting it is
constructive. what i say to myself, you know, i put my pants on one leg at a time. i'm no different than anybody else. i could put it in government bonds at 2%. i think it's a bad decision. rates don't belong here. the third thing is i could buy common stocks that make a sense and have a return package. as i spike now, i think half of the s&p 500 yield more than bonds. it's a highly unusual condition. it's more than existing in 2008. i would say that i find it easier to take my chance in an undervalued common stock than i would a bond, and i want to hold a certain amount of cash, because the world is uncertain, but i really think that, you know, common stocks represent
the best alternative in financial assets. sdmru mentioned one of the factors that can throw you into recession, which is geopolitical risk. >> not recession. it can throw you into a bear market. >> i'm sorry. you're right. what if geopolitical risk is just morphing or showing its head as something different than what we have experienced in the past and the market -- there's the real fear of a currency crisis. just full blown throughout the asian countries and through the emerging markets. what happens if that is a version of geopolitical risk? >> i don't know. in terms of the global economy, it's not as significant as people make it out to be. i remember in 2014 wrestling
with all the concern over ebola now it's china, okay? i'm more worried about what's going on in our credit markets. that to me would be more significant. china is affect every affecting our gdp and is not significant. china's affect on commodity prices was quite dramatic. those stocks have been destroyed. oil and megtss have all been destroyed. i'm not oon expert on china. i would expect that that is not as big a problem domestically as is being midout to be. heats just a judgment call. >> you think people are shorting the s&p to hedge against the risk of -- that's taking place in credit and high yield? >> unekwifically. unekwifically. basically there is no liquidity
in the credit market. s&ps will have to find a level that they're comfortable at. i would think that it's not far from where we are presently, and larry is allowing for another 10% drop. i don't think we're going to have another 10%, but i wouldn't say it's impossible. i think the best advice i can give your view is, you know, is not the time. i would have said it a year ago or six months ago. not the time to be on margin. this too shall pass, and i think you have to watch very, very carefully what's going on in the economy. the economy looks like it's hanging in and going through a soft patch, but there's no one out there that's got a lot of credibility that is forecasting recession. that may be all wrong. the economy was doing fine, by the way, in 2008 until leman
hit, and the government made a mistake of letting leman go. maybe there's a corporate event about to happen that we don't see. i would hang tough and go on the assumption that a lot of this is the result of market structure changes. dodd frank, volcker, specialist system, the uptick rule, and these quantity takive systems that are reeking havoc with the market. there's no basis i think for a big decline from here unless we're dead wrong and the stock market is telling you we're going into recession. if you are a technician, you would say it is telling you we're going into recession. you're a fundamental, you have a twut different view. >> lastly brshgs i let gu, lee, is there a key level around the august lows, below that that you personally are watching today? >> you'll probably take it out, but i'm watching probably 18 --
25 to 18.50 level, and if larry is right, you'll take it out. in front of a three-day weekend. i guess people are nervous. i would say i would like to see it hold around the august levels. if we don't, i would expect we have to find another lower level. >> lee, i appreciate you coming to the phone today. thank you very much. leon cooperman, of course, the chairman and ceo of omega advisors. want to get a quick comment before we go to break. haven't heard from you yet, doc. >> larry fink said more or less the same thing i said yesterday, scott. when are we finally going to see a reasonable bounce that is sustainable. i think you really need to see a lot more fear. you need to see heavy volume. there's getting a bit of that now. larry fink said he thought another 10%. larry is a smart guy. i'm not betting against him. i don't think we get that extra 10% here. i think we'll get a capitulatory low before we get that. >> put back up, guys, the s&p.
you are right at 1867. >> you had worries about that during the ebola virus. who can remember going back to 201 and you had worries about a default on the u.s. treasury market. these issues come up. there's nothing in this china scares that leads me to believe this is any worse than the hand-writteninging we did about those events. i can't say when this is going to pass, but this is not a structural decline that we're looking at here. >> we're going to take a quick break, come back. stocks at session lows. we have much more on the sell-off coming up with rebecca patterson. she is the cio at bessemer trust. how is she magazining the voluntarily tult and that firm's $60 billion in assets.
plus, the energy plunge continues today. crude at its lowest level since 2003. we get a check from the futures pits as well. sea of red on this friday on wall street. are there any buying opportunities out there? we'll talk to our experts and see if anybody is buying the dip. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.
>> the dow is the board at the new york stock exchange. right at 15,900. a loss of 479 points, we'll call it, because we are just about the s&p 500. broken below its -- 1867. that is where it currently sits. it's a 33% decline or greater than that. it's down 4% at this hour. a loss of 175 points. >> rebecca patterson. it's nice to see you. what do you make of the market?
>> it's ugly today. your previous interview with leon cooperman is great, and i'm sympathetic with a lot of the comments he made. i don't think we can. >> some of the quantity takive trading strategy that is could be exacerbating these moves in the short-term. i think right now a lot of it does hinge on oil, and we have broken 30. we see what the next stop is. where it can find a bottom. i think we can all agree, oil is not going to zero. there will be a bottom. it's a matter of where and how long it takes to get there, and it's hard to get extremely excited about equities until we can see a little bit of stabilization in the oil space just given the correlations right now. give us an idea here what we
should be thinking about, what's taking place in asia as some of the big money managers that i have been speaking to are certainly concerned about a spreading currency crisis. you can already see it in some respects in many of the various currencies, and i have a chart in front of me, whether it's argentina, south africa, russia, mexico, malaysia, brazil, indonesia. the percentage that those are off their 52-week highs versus the dollar are certainly eye-open and could only get worse. what does it mean? >>. >> we kind of figured this was coming. perhaps not to the degree it has, so we've been overweight the dollar, and very underweight commodities and emerging markets across asset classes for the last few years in our port foales, which is. >> keeping competitive against a basket of currencies.
this is a structural shift. to understand what china is going to do on currency policy, you have to watch that basket. right now thief weakened it back to what we consider fair value. with that in mind we do not think they're going to weaken the currency materially more in the short-term. we may have further currency weakness, but i'm not expecting a big one-off devaluation. from here currency crisis, currency risk, if we can see oil stabilize and if china only lets its currency weaken slowly over the rest of the year, i think there is a very good chance we're going to see equities stabilize and start to recover. if we have the fed -- if the fed is tighten and the dollar has some support under it, emerging market equities, even if they look cheap now, you have to get the equity to work, and the currency to work to make a decent return. we're being very patient on emernling markets. >> back to the u.s. stock
market. you know, larry fink said what he did today that you could see another 10% flush down for stocks at which point it would be a good buying opportunity. lee cooperman didn't necessarily agree that we would go down that far, and we argue until we're blue in the face as to how far down, if any more we think we need to go. the question is is it a buying opportunity here? are we getting close to that? are you with the $60 billion in assets under management and the chief investment officer at bessemer putting money to work at this market? >> what we did, scott, just in the last week, frankly, is take a step to reduce the volatility of our portfolios. i don't want to sell equities here. we've already seen a big sell-off. why would i crystallize those losses? we're staying fully invested. we aren't changing equity allocation, but we are looking at ways to bring the volatility of the stocks down through the stocks in the diversification we have in those stocks. we've introduced more of a managed volatility approach to our equity exposure, which i
think is going to help limit our down side, if we do see a larry fink view play out. if we just went to cash, we're missing that. i think that's probably a little premature at this point. we're just trying to manage volatility. that way we can participate if we get a bounce, but we're not going to suffer as much if we keep going down. until i see signs, leon, i think pointed out well, you know, consumer confidence today at a seven-month high. small business confidence came out earlier this week. up from the previous month. we're not seeing leading indicators that the consumer is capitulating. i know retail sales are soft, but i think there was some noise around that. if the consumer holds in, that's 70% of the u.s. economy, it's hard for me to think a recession is coming, and if we do see equities keep going down and commodities down, inflation expectations come down, fed hikes get pushed back, the dollar stabilizes, and all of
that, i think, is kind of a self-correcting mechanism, that's going to help stabilize sentiment in the equity market. again, the issue is timing. what level and what day does that happen? that's the hard call right now. >> we're grateful for your time today. rebecca, thanks for being so patient as we spoke to mr. cooperman earlier as well. >> no, i enjoyed listening to him. thank you. >> we'll see you soon. rebecca patterson, bessimer trust. >> worse day for major averages since the 24th of august. we head to the new york stock exchange. dom patrolling the floor down there for us today. he is going to give us the latest market action and all ten sectors are in the red. financials, energy among the weak spots today. throw in tech, materials, discretionary, where what does it mean for the fed? the look at the biggest losers in the dow. intel, disney, dupont, and microsoft. it's a fact. kind of like ordering wine equals pretending to know wine. pinot noir, which means peanut of the night.
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4%. dom on the floor of the new york stock exchange watching all of it. dom. >> i mean, scott, it really is a weakening picture down here. there isn't a huge sense of panic, if you will. still this idea that we've drifted lower these lows of the session essential disconcerting. as you talk about this 517, 520 point drop in the dow, we want to focus on a little bit on one sector here that's very much a cause or a driver in today's down trade. that is the bank stocks. the financials specifically. a lot of it earnings driven in earlier reports today. if you look at some of the intraday action here of big names, like citigroup, citigroup coming out with at least a better picture than analysts had thought still. it's not helping the shares. down by about 7%. meanwhile, the world's biggest asset manager, black rock, larry fink's comments earlier today, down 5.5%. more than a mixed picture there. there are assets under management unchanged from the sim time last year. pnc financial, if you want to call it a relative winner in
today's trade. it's not down by as much, but still one of the big regional banking players there as well. just to put this all in context, the move down in financials today as a sector overall, now makes financials the second worst performing sector in the s&p 500 on a year-to-date basis. back over to you. >> thank you so much. yet, new york fed president bill dudley is sticking to his 2016 forecast. steve liesman, who has come to the table to have a conversation with us. what's going on? >> there was an opportunity. >> surprising, right? you were surprise snd. >> there was an opportunity for bill dudley to calm things down a little bit, and he did not take it. i wonder if there's a message in that, which is maybe the fed is
making a point of not trying to put some sort of floor under what's happening here and saying, you know, from bruce springsteen "go straight into the night and then, boy, you're on your own." this might be the message from the fed to the markets. bill could have come forward and said i see what is going on in the market. i hear the message of what's happening here, and it's cause meg to rethink. vemp the way bullard did yesterday, but dudley who is one of the more doves didn't do that today. the other part of what's happening here, look, markets where going to find their own evening lib yum on their own, and where they're trading against oil or with oil on the way down is beyond me. we were just talking here about american airlines. its biggest cost is declining for consumers. they're going to do better because of lower energy. the data did not help. we had soft retail. soft manufacturing. the fed had an opportunity to help. it did not. the data could have come in and helped. it did not. >> let me ask you this then. does the fed want to hike because it truly believes that the economy is good enough to do
so or does it want to hike because it's worried about the economy and it knows it's not doing well, and it wants to have some ammo that it does not have now. >> it's the former. it believes that the economy is on this 2% track that unemployment is going to fall further, and it wants to get rid of the excesses that may have been created by zero rates. it wants to head off any inflation down the road and be more where it needs to be for when the unemployment ratio falls. >> these are peel people. they can be scared too and want to have some bullets, right? >> the fed will not be hiking
four times. >> some of the movements in the market as we were coming back from break, the financials, jim, are getting anile ated over the last couple of weeks. today included. you look at the xlf. that was sort of raising an interesting eyebrow from you. i haven't heard from you on what your view of what's taking place there is. >> i think it's not so much china, but i do think it's lending that has gone on in the energy and basic material sector. >> i think what's happening in the financials. i do want to go back to what you and steve were talking about. steve, i have a ton of respect for you. i'm on the other side of scott's question. where i think they want to raise not because the economy is doing so great, but because they want to normalize interest rates for exactly that time when a recession hits. i do agree with you, though, that being able to back off four interest rate hikes is a tool,
but it's the last tool they have, and they're going to use it sparingly. >> this market doesn't seem like it can deal with the fact that there could legitimately be more rate hikes this year in the current environment that we have -- some people think we're going into. >> i do need to caution, right, our viewers, and you are on the table. you know this. just to emphasize what's happening in the stock market does not necessarily mean the same thing as what's happening in the economy. adds i say when china sneezes,
the rest of the world catches cold. i don't think the impact is going to be on our economy as much as maybe the headlines are saying. sfroo i want to focus on what's happening in the stock market. specifically with the dow down more than 500 points. thank you, steve, for those headlines as well from dudley today. i guess we're going to hear from fed speakers next week as well. >> i think we'll hear from them and they'll start to hear from january. january is off the table. march is way down as a percentage chance for a rate hike. >> the fixed income markets. i don't know that the stock market is -- >> thank you. good weekend. good long one at that. >> josh brown, try and make some sense of the dow down more
than -- or nearly 530 points. is there anything worth buying today? >> no one is talking about the real reasons why this is happening. the fundamentals of the u.s. economy and corporate america did not -- >> no one wants to be long into a long weekend. that seems for certain. the expiration today as well. >> that's part of it. shanghai doesn't do mlk. that market will be open. you will be sitting there hostage if you are fully invested. that's definitely part of it, scott. the other thing is we're in a buy back black-out period before earnings. that's not where you want to be when all of the buying that takes place in the market is cfo is putting more money to work in their buyback program, which is exactly what went on last year. when you don't have those buy backs to support stockses, mom and pop aren't doing it. hedge funds aren't doing it. people selling etf's, that's not helping. you have lost that marginal buyer, and they don't come back until after these companies report. then the other thing, and this is really important and steve alluded to it, and lee alluded
to it, i'm just going to come out and say it. there is more money than ever that's being managed in some sort of a technical fashion. the technician saw this coming. they're watching the internals break down for six months. they're watching sentiment break down over the last three months. the technicians were not going into this fully invested. those that were heavily invested are the people that are out there selling as each one of these levels breaks. you can mock the levels. you can say they're meaningless, imaginary lines. guess what, that's what actually is driving money flows into and out of the market. >> when i watch the -- basically the traders, and there aren't that many left, trade, their best months are when the markets are getting crushed. when the market is up marginally, they're losing money. they are making money. the downward momentum is so much stronger and so much easier for them to jump on than the upward momentum. >> rich peterson, from the s&p capital iq. just to give you something to chew on as we go to break. off 184 points, the s&p and january of 2016, that ranks as
the second largest monthly point loss. october 2008 was worse. that was 197 s&p points. s&p right now is below those august 24 lows. we'll take a quick break and come back and cover the market more. oil continuing to plunge today. a 12-year low. we're going to go to the futures pits at the nymex next.
coming up at the top of the hour on "power lunch" it is a sea of red. a big selloff going on right now, but where there is turmoil, there's opportunity. the best value stocks in this beaten down market. facebook, amazon, netflix, google. they've again on a tear over the last year, but are these so-called fang stocks losing their bite? the stocks that are still showing relative strength despite the recent sell-off. more halftime report after this. we'll see you at the top of the hour for "power lunch." i've been called a control freak...
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we're back. want to show you the dow which is on track for its worst month since february of 2009. 15,904 is where that index currently sits. it is off the low. dow was down more than 500 points. it currently sits down 475, and speaking of dow components, josh brown, buying one in the commercial break. >> yeah. i came to get down, scott. i just bought apple under 96 bucks. this name is down almost 30% from its peak. everyone is aware of what the issues with the company are, but what they may not be aware of is that this company is not going to cancel their buyback. they have over $200 billion in
cash. most of it really can't be used for r & d. it's going to be used to return to shareholders. huge dividend, huge buyback. they will throw an ocean of money at this thing once the company gets through earnings. >> jon najarian is buying as well. >> bought apple as well. he was glad to see josh jumping in there. >> we bought it in our joint account, right, john? >> also bought gap stores today, judge. have put on some spreads in some of the financials because the pits are screaming that the fed is wrong about moving four times this year because basically they took it down to two times, and the second rate hike that they're looking at is not very likely either based on the fed funds that people are talking about. so i think there are some of these stocks that have literally been crushed to the point where when you're looking at a wells fargo or even a morgan stanley
down 22% since the fed hiked in december, i think that's too much. >> i'm getting an e-mail now from somebody who says keep buying apple because you can average down next week. >> lol. >> lol. >> maybe. >> as i said, i bought some uso. i'm not buying anything, a three-day weekend. time to preserve capital, time to make money. i don't feel i have to rush in. if i miss a couple points on the. >> upside, that's fine. >> we are watching obviously crude oil, very much a part of this story. it is collapsing again. trading below $30 a barrel. jackie deangelis is at the nymex for the latest there. >> good afternoon to you, scott. crude oil making new session lows. wti hitting a low of $29.13. it's just bouncing off that right now but certainly the selling pressure increasing. more than 6% decline on the session and brent under $29. the intraday low $28.82. we haven't seen that since february of 2004. that was the low then.
really a big black eye for oil that started with the speculation this morning that we're going to see perhaps over the weekend the sanctions lifted on iran. we talked about this when we did the oil survey, that some of this was certainly priced into the crude oil market here and responsible for the decline that is we've seen, but not all of it has been priced in, and now is when traders start to sell. we always have this debate about whether equities are driving crude or crude is driving equities. they both are moving lower together today and traders are telling me this is even more than iran at this point, but seeing the market down the way it is, the equity market, the dow, that's what's adding the pressure on crude oil. they thought there was a possibility because we were going into a three-day weekend, we could reverse. it doesn't appear that's going to happen now. >> thank you so much. live today from the nymex with all the goings on there. i want to highlight the stocks we've talked about during this week in the energy space. chesapeake -- these are all this week alone. chesapeake down 24%. marathon down 25%.
freeport down 27%. consol down 32%. >> here is what i'm wondering, scott, and i don't know if this is the case. i'm wondering, maybe we'll discuss it on the desk, you go back a year ago and the energy complex was in free fall then, but a lot of what we were talking about is how many of these producers were hedged. those hedges have clearly come off. if i'm looking at this current leg down i'm wondering if it's because they're hedging further out and placing mo are pressure on the market. >> what's going on is they're closer some of them to insolvency because there's only so long they can run and produce for cash because they have no money to pay the bills. it's a waiting game the saudis are playing. i'm still short freeport. bhm, i was short that. they wrote down some assets. that goes to your problem. bhp i think goes lower. they shouldn't pay a dividend at all. i think you're safe. that's the least of least momentum. >> next, a look ahead to next week's earnings plus a call in
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we're back. let's bring in now stephanie link, portfolio manager tiaa creff. good to talk to you today. give me your thoughts on what we're watching in the market. >> well, scott, obviously very disappointing today, very disappointing week, very disappointing first two weeks of the year. i think we've been pretty clear, all of us have said until oil stabilizes, until we get confidence that china has a handle on their economy and their currency issue, the volatility is going to continue. i'll tell what you i'm going to look for. next week we get a ton of earnings and i actually will be curious to see the reactions to the earnings because i actually think earnings are going to be okay, and i'm still of the mind that you're going to see a lot of beneficiaries of lower oil, lower interest rates, so consumer staples, discretionary, housing, even certain financials. if these companies can deliver, do their stocks rally on that news? if they do not rally on good news, then we're going to be in for a little bit more difficulty
i think. >> very quickly, not rallying at all and not good news, intel. do you wish you had that one back? >> no. actually, no. obviously i wish i could buy it today versus earlier in the week, but i like it here long term. i think now it's totally derisked. the story has not changed in terms of it being a transition. less dependent on pcs, more dependent on data center. they have two times the level of free cash flow they had in 2009. you get a nice dividend yield and one you can kind of sleep at night with i think. >> steph, have a good weekend, a long one. we'll talk to you next week. >> thanks, scott. you, too. >> i heard art cashin say we're still living in the last crisis. >> i think it tells you what you need to look for, you need to look for decoupling from china news. it's one of the reasons i like tiffany today is it's up and
it's certainly not up because china is doing well. look for decoupling. >> when scott wapner starts speaking in yiddish, that's the bottom. you can buy it here. >> the colonel clink impersonation. >> we'll see what transpires next week. "power lunch" picks up the story right now. that is the number that everybody is watching. it is the dow jones industrial average, and it is currently down by 454 points, but at the low of the day it was down by 537 points. >> it has been, as you probably know, a very wild day right from the get-go. you see the swings there. those are the dow industrials. beyond the dow, the s&p 500 off 52 points, closing in on a 3% slide. touching lows not seen since really late 2014. >> as for the nasdaq, ty, it is really getting slammed. it's off by 3.5%, and solidly in correction territory. as for oil which, of course, is the