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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  January 15, 2016 6:00pm-7:01pm EST

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reversal. >> guys, it has been great to be with you on this crazy day. let's see what the markets bring next week, because u.s. markets closed on monday. but we're here covering what is going on overseas. overseas. go to our website. see you next fry, 5:30. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you money. my job isn't just to entertain but to educate and teach you. and put this all in context. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. this selloff isn't nearly as rapid as it now looks. dow plunging 3391 points today.
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as grimace tho as those closings are, it's not as bad as when the dow was down 596 points. even before this week, the average stock had fallen more than 20% from its highs. we'll going to have to adjust to the notion that good news at this moment just doesn't seem to matter. because the overall market wants to go lower. that's why tonight i want to talk about the psyche of a bear market so you can understand why nothing is working and the averages can't put together enough of a winning streak so you can get anything but a trading spike. first, our checklist is really a good indicator of the fickle nature of a bear market. they're always fickle. yesterday we had an incredibly hawkish federal reserve official say that we need to be very
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careful not to get ahead of ourselves when it comes to rate hikes. now, that's not the exact translation, abobut he had been hawk, and then recognized that the fed doesn't have to be too guest with tightening. his comments sparked a pretty terrific countertrend rally. then today, bill dudley, another very important federal reserve official, said the opposite. he seemed unperturbed and seemed to indicate that we need to continue to tighten because things are so good, so good with hiring. it was the exact opposite, at least in my book. and it really contributed to today's negative action. what one giveth, the other taketh away, in a constant reminder that we're fighting the
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fed never since the first tightening, and it is the enemy, not the friend, of the bull in your portfolio. yesterday the chinese communist party walked their stock market to close into bear territory. today it fell back and the party seemed helpless to stop it. as i said earlier in the week, china could have to repeal its entire move up from much lower levels. and a 30% decline cannot be ruled out. that's an awful lot of points we'll be reacting negatively too. unlike the good old days of the hardliners, you can't trust these guys to shoot straight. third, oil is the most important indicator of the market's next move. and it now scenes ineluctable that barring a hot war in the middle east that takes oil out
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of capacity, particularly for saudi arabia, the path of least resistance for oil is now back. those that said crude would bounce back swiftly, the man who has been most right all the way down, rusty brazil, authored "the domino effect," has made it clear oil will be lower, longer, and that's your watchword. again, despite what you hear, it's in saudi arabia's interests to keep pumping in order to destroy the american oil industry. and they can do it. but not yet, because there's been tremendous forbearance by lenders, huge technological improvements to lower the cost of shipping. if the federal government unleashes the strategic petroleum reserve, today's
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nearly 6% decline is exhibit a for the strength of that selloff. the united states is pumping as much oil as it did last year. do not hold your breath waiting for oil to bottom. don't hold any oil company stocks, please. they're at the epicenter of the decline and they're all value traps. every single oil company, big and small, needs to raise money. but freeport and chesapeake are the most stretched. needless to say, while yesterday we may have gotten the biggest increase in oil in ages, today's brutal climate erased the game and then some, which means another box is unchecked too. fourth, judging about why the stocks for airlines, cellphone makers are trading, we have to assume we've seen a peak in all of those cycles. just when the fed tightens.
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the stocks are leading to that conclusion. in a bear marketed, you don't try to fight what the stocks are saying, or screaming. finally, a report from j.p. morgan, starts off with a bang. we heard from intel. while the actual quarter was good, the forecast was about as bearish as i can recall. they saw weakness pretty much across the board and the stock fell an astounding 9% in one session. this company has a conservative management. still, not that long ago intel was calling a bottom in personal computers. that bottom is now history. that's bad news for seagate, western digital, and micron. it says negative things about the big cloud businesses that the enterprise is weak and makes us cautionary about ibm, which reports next monday.
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i even call into the question the prospects of intel's recent acquisition given the weakness in the results for that line item. jeez, it was a bad call. the other major banks that reported, citigroup and wells fargo, they were good, but not as good as j.p. morgan. and in a market like this, that's enough to take down the whole group. those stocks were crushed, including jpm, which yesterday blew the doors off the quarter. so we had the earnings box unchecked. china, oil, fed, earnings. i mean, holy cow. that is terrible. it's pretty clear by now that the fed raised rates in exactly the wrong time. and without some highly unlikely statement from them saying that they're on hold, we're in a bad way, especially given the nature of today's fed head comments. let's go back to the notion that when everyone gets too negative, you need to find opportunities, which i have ones later in the
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show. i always like to be optimistic. that makes sense, as i said the other day before the spike. on days like today, it's asking too much to think that you can do some buying. better to hold on, wait, and get a better moment. yesterday was a good day to reposition. my travel trust sold out of a big energy position simply because the oils are under tremendous stress and the stock has run. look, remember, it's a silent bond market that's the killer in the oil patch. you're only looking at the stocks. it's hideous out there, what's in the bonds. i reiterate we are the most oversold we've been since 2011 when europe was falling off a cliff. the banks say that's not the case this time, our financials were exposurforced to be much s and her and the government may have done the right thing. we have to presume we are back in a 2011 mode when it looks
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like greece, italy, portugal, spain, and ireland could bring us down. we have to start playing by 2011 rules. we are in better shape than we were then. the damage is containable this time. there's about $300 billion in the oil patch. that can be restructured. why not sit and buy in a weakness? because stocks are more expensive than they were in 2011 and the fed is no longer our friend. we're now fighting the fed. and this is what that looks like. so the bottom line is, keep some powder dry, sell the weak stocks in your portfolio, remember, bear markets we have, spike's up. keep a clear head and eventually this too shall pass. dave in california. >> caller: booyah, jim, how are you? >> you know, i'm hanging in there, partner. how are you? >> caller: pretty good. jim, here's my question. with sustained lower energy feedstock prices be enough to
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boost blue course steel's competition? >> no, nothing can stomp this dumping which is insane. rather, their use of natural gas has already been -- well, they were going to moth ball the plant we went to a couple of years ago. no, you can't make steel in this country without the government protecting steel makers. that's not what the government does, because we're pro globalization. michael in new york. >> caller: i would like to hear your thoughts on the reason news from metlife that it will spin off -- >> metlife is not going to sit there and take the beatdown. they're trying to create wealth by doing the spinoff. that's what we like. we have to be on the lookout for companies that are not pulled down by the s&p. metlife, i salute you, good work. how about shafee in new york. >> booyah, dr. cramer. you talk about the airlines but he never virgin airlines. back to all time lows. buy, sell, or hold?
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>> i'm a wait and defer to what i hear from delta and southwest next week. they're two of my favorites, and they act horribly. we aren't in as bad shape as we were back in 2011. although the market looks like it. we're still in capital preservation mode. i need you to keep your powder dry. "mad money" tonight, i'm tackling the technicals, trying to get a sense of when the selloff will cease. today's drop might be top of mind, but i'm focusing on the week ahead to see if there could be more pain coming. and do companies face an impossible task when it comes to creating value in a market like this? not quite. we have to stay opportunistic. i'll explain, just ahead. so why don't you stick with cramer! >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to
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madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
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if we had another brutal decline today, when do we get a sense that it's run its course? an abject surrender, they sell everybody just to get it over with. how do you know when that moment is arrived? you could have argued easily that the bulls capitulated wednesday. but you're merely making it easier for this hostile market to cut your head off today. that's why it's important to examine the volatility index or the fear gauge. it's a terrific proxy for the overall worry and terror in the averages. tonight we're doing a special friday off the charts with the help of mark sebastian, the founder of optionpit.com, and my colleague at realmoney.com.
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before we talk about the present moment, we need to understand what happened the last time the market took a real beating courtesy of both china and oil at the end of august. check out these twin charts of the s&p 500 and the volatility index over the last 12 months. the big august breakdown was different from an any other selloff we've seen since the european debt crisis in 2011. it was bigger, it was faster, and it was scarier. we know it was more frightening, because when the s&p was getting crushed in august, the vic spiked up to the 50s. notice, though, sebastian points out that the s&p retested its lows in late september. the vics didn't spike anywhere near as much as it did in the august decline. that august breakdown should have been when everyone got wiped out. but the action in the volatility
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index didn't confirm the legitimacy of the bottom. typically you would expect the s&p 500 to make a lower low as the vix makes the second lower high. the vix kept spiking. it even moved toward 25 again in december, despite the fact that the averages were doing just fine. that was a sure sign to sebastian that something just wasn't right. right now, take a gander at these paired charts of the s&p 500 and the volatility index overt last three months. despite the rapid brutal breakdown in the s&p 500, the business barely moved higher. yesterday it settled at the same level where it was just in mid-december, when the s&p was roughly 125 points higher. that definitely reflects some fear. nothing like the fear we experienced in august. he says that's not going to
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happen again. sebastian says there's another way to look at it action. if you narrow your focus to just the last month, what you see is that the s&p 500 is getting its head handed to it as the vix ramps up from very low levels to the current more fearful levels. in fact it almost seems like the s&p 500 and the vix is moving in lockstep. check out these charts of the s&p 500 and the vix going back to 2011. right now the s&p is breaking down and testing the flash-crash slows that occurred on august 24th. the break down in the average is happening as the vix makes a much lower high versus last august. this reminds sebastian of the big brutal selloff in october of 2011 when we were getting crushed because of europe. just like right now we're being eviscerated because of china. the market bottomed back then even though the vix made a lower
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high. which brings us to today. after initially spiking up to 30, the volatility index pulled back to 27. not much higher than when it went out last friday, which is kind of insane when you think about how terrifying this week has been. meanwhile the s&p 500 is managing to hang in there a few points above its august lows. he says it will break down dramatically below those levels and the vix will trade consistently over 30. according to sebastian, this market needed to go lower in 2015. the chinese market was propped up by artificial buying by the communist party. it's also linked to oil which seemed destined to trade lower than even the $29 price would indicate. the chart suggests this market still needs to go lower before we bottom. today the s&p 500 held in or above its late august lows and
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we won't have real capitulation until we break down below those levels. that's the bad news. the good news, much like 2011, sebastian thinks it will be a good time to get in. so get your shopping cart ready and we will check back in with mark. much more "mad money" ahead, including my game plan for next week. then i'm revealing the companies making a stay-in in this market. why don't you stick with cramer.
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so i know how important that is. holy cow, you know we mean serious business when we delay the plan for what we call the "c" block around here. we had to deal with the destruction today first before the destruction next week. first of all, our markets might be closed for the martin luther king holiday monday, that doesn't mean there's nothing to watch. in fact, just the opposite. we're getting huge data out of china, a trifecta of what i think will be pain if there ever were one. i don't trust any of the numbers coming out of china today. i think their economy is slowing at a rapid pace. the numbers we see are overstated. i have to presume these reports are going to be awful anyway and
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they will reverberate around the world. first up, we hear from morgan stanley, bank of america, delta, all in the morning. i've got to tell you, i'm worried. morgan stanley's stock has been free falling of late. i'm concerned about it. concerned enough to tell you that if there are negatives, they are are not yet baked into the stock, even though it's been falling freely. i think bank of america stock is cheap. we just bought some for my travel trust. cheap doesn't seem to matter right now. it will someday, but not right now. this is a true hold your nose and buy something purchase. and i no longer expect to be immediately rewarded, because the market has stopped taking into account anything good. witness how j.p. morgan gave up its gains after one of the most beautiful quarters i've seen in the lasting few years. delta will be very important. here's a stock that sells at seven times earnings. its principal cost is jet fuel which you know has plummeted
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dramatically. but so has the stock of delta. if they don't raise numbers, not only is delta's stock a goner, so is southwest which reports on thursday. i expect the stock to drop a quick 10%. brutal rules for brutal times. i say that as someone who likes the stock of delta. after the close tuesday, we had two entirely problematic companies' iterations. the first, ibm, is problematic because it's missed quarter after quarter after quarter of earnings estimates. i think it could repeat that, because its fast-growing businesses can't seem to overcome the weaknesses of its low-growi ining legacy business. a 4% cushion doesn't protect from a real bad quarter. the other problematic name, the
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best performing stock of 2015, netflix, is in difficult bond. the last quarter was not particularly strong but people overlooked it, because, well, it's netflix. the opportunity of netflix is too great not to use weakness to do some buying. this time, even if the company reports a perfect quarter, i think that just makes it go down quicker than it would otherwise. why am i so bleak? we saw big winners like constellation brands report a fabulous quarter this week, the best of the nascent year. and after an initial rally, its stock came down and came down hard. if the best quarter in show of a highly valued stock can't keep the bear at bay, how the heck can netflix perform an even greater miracle if the stock is much more classically overvalid? let it come in. wednesday, dow component goldman sachs reports. this stock is trading as if
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there's something very wrong at goldman. to me, goldman's stock simply reflects the overall negativity toward anything financial. that group now acts like oil stock. that said, i have no catalyst i can think of to buy goldman stock. remember, when goldman reports, they open the window and then people can do selling. it's usually a bad time. by thursday we should be far enough along in what i perceive as being a selloff that there might be some stocks actually worth buying. so let's watch the action in two names after they report. travelers and verizon, both dow stocks. last time around travelers delivered the biggest upside surprise in the dow save nike. and we found out the company bought back more stock than just about any company on the new york stock exchange. verizon's a higher yielder with more than enough cash flow to cover that dividend. if either reports better than expected earnings, i will probably recommend them on my morning show, "squawk on the
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street." yes, they're that good. the rails have been off the rails. i think union pacific isn't going to be able to deliver anything that's any good when it reports thursday morning. and you know i like union pacific so much. but you know what, i have to be careful here. what we want to hear is whether they're confirming the freight recessi recession that css talked about. get used to that term, "freight recession." it really kind of encapsulates what's going on. i want the complacent rate hike pushers on the fed to listen to the union pacific call. and i'll make that clear as we get closer to the quarter. i'll be becoming much more agitated about the fed that wants to keep raising. american express and schlumberger.
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the first is nasty of its own doing. this company hasn't been able to do much right lately, including partnerships with costco and fidelity. america's best and ibm has done very little rhetoric. i have a policy going on thestreet.com about whether young people even know what it is. i bet we get more of the same from a company that i'm a proud member since 1982 and my kids have never heard of. schlumberger is a good stock in a bad neighborhood. some people can't handle the truth. i'm going to be on the call to hear what they say about how much oil iran will be pumping in the not too distant future. they know iran cold. final, starbucks reports. here is one i'm itching to buy onny h nn nn nny any hammering.
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does anyone care about the long term anymore? starbucks is a travel trust position. i've been waiting for it to get hammered so we can buy more. sometimes when you're going down, it's positive. finally on friday we'll hear from another company i can't wait to buy, one in the bullpen of stocks. my travel trust wants to purchase. ge, general electric. today we learned it sold its supplies business to a supplier who is willing to pay much more, a chinese buyer, than electrolux was before that deal was nixed by the regulators. it's better being lucky than good. in the meantime, the best organic growth of any company in its class last time and. if we have a truly compressed bear market, if this stock false to its flash-crash low from last august, here's what you'll hear from me. >> buy buy buy! >> this is a market that wants
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to go lower. right now, can't help it. we'll be opportunistic around here and look for stocks that are overdonne to the downside. but for the moment cash is stick and stocks are pawns, until they swap ranks on the board, the watchword is be careful out there. joe in hawaii. joe. >> caller: booyah and aloha from hawaii, jim. >> mahalo, my friend. >> caller: i've got verizon and at&t. i'm wondering, is at&t a better one to hold and let verizon go? >> after the directv announcement and i really liked, it's now six or half dozen, because i like verizon a little more on the fundamentals but i like at&t on the dividend. these are fine stocks. i am not concerned about either. you happen to be in the sweet spot of what i mean, when the ten-year treasury is going under too, verizon and at&t, that's
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just what jim cramer took "mad money" for. this market wants to go lower. even the best of earnings can't help it. that's why cash at this moment is king. be cautious out there. lots more "mad money" ahead. the slide in the stocks accelerated today, but are there any companies that maybe would give your portfolio a boost? i have a couple. is there a point in fighting the fed? i'll give you the blow by blow. after yet another difficult week i am here to help. i'm tackling all your stock questions in tonight's very special edition of the lightning round. so why no stick with cramer!
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in the wake of still one more hideous day, i consider it my actual duty to remind you there are still some opportunities out there. even in a market as bad as this one. they're just much harder to find and you need to know what to look for. you know why i do this? as i said yesterday, even the ugliest markets have opportunities, and you have to be ready to take them. i'm not a pollyanna, but there is always a bull market
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somewhere. consider baxalta. i've always been a fan of value-created breakups and this spin off was the best case snore. not only was the parent company, baxter, allowed to unlock the value of its drug division, but we learned that shire, the gigantic european pharmaceutical company, is now buying back solomon for $32 billion. this whole saga has a special place in my heart because in my latest book, "get rich carefully," i devoted an entire chapter to companies that should break themselves up. my number one idea was for baxter to break itself up. you know, look, okay, maybe i got lucky, but all these stocks have been punished by the
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market-wide selloff, but the baxalta selloff has made shareholders a killing. this may be a harsh and unfor her unforgiving bear market, but i hope these companies will put money in your pocket. how lucrative will the baxter breakup be? eventually it will be safe to buy these stocks at relatively low levels and i want you to be prepared for that moment before it happens so you don't miss it, even though right now i'm sure buying any stock is probably the last thing you want to do. this is the time to develop that shopping list for when things get better. and i'm spelling out how you can find the attractive ones because this too shall pass. first let's take a moment to
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celebrate baxalta. for years i've been saying baxter as it used to be organized made absolutely no sense. it was a slows and steady maker of medical instruments that happened to have a rapidly growing drug business under the same roof. baxter's stock never got credit for that exciting drug division because it was buried in a boring larger company. a few months after my book was published, baxter took my advice as they announced the spinoff of their pharma business. i guess somebody on the board of directors is a fan. it took a while for the spinoff to happen, but when it finally took place this past july, something amazing happened. investors were given one share of baxalta for every share they had in baxter. at the close of the first day of trading, as two independent companies, baxter went out at
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$38.86. baxalta was at $31.50. it turns out literally, get this, this is why breakups are so powerful, the very next day, the ceo of shire approached baxalta, wanted to discuss a merger. the very next day! that's the kind of positive development that can happen when you break up a disparate conglomerate into companies that are easy to acquire. news of shire's takeover came out in august. this past monday we got confirmation it's going to happen. as part of the transaction baxalta shareholders are getting cash and shares of shire. put it together and the deal is about 44 bucks a share. it's just ten bucks off its lows. as shire goes higher, baxalta
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shareholders will be getting a much better deal. suppose you have been holding the shares. how well have you done including dividends? you got a 12.3% return since the split was announced in 2014. maybe you think that's not much. when you consider the dow is down roughly 2% over the same period and the s&p 500 is up a little over 1%, it's clear that the baxter international breakup has allowed you to substantially outperform the averages. if this market ever goes higher, i think that will look even more impressive. what other recent spinoffs might be takeover candidates? i'm trying to put optimistic ideas out there so you don't say cramer has given up on the market, because i haven't. remember, it's easier to acquire a company than it is to buy a division from another business. with many stocks in bear market territory right now, i think a savvy acquirer could find some
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potential phenomenal bargains out there if they just had the stomach for it and know it could really help their business. since the beginning of 2013 there have been an amazing 10 spinoffs of business units into new separate publicly traded intents, beginning with when abbott labs spun off abbvie. i've got two attractive takeover candidates. coca-cola should acquire weight wave foods. coca-cola needs to change with the times and start selling more healthy products in order to give its business some much-needed growth. plus their staff is now down more than 30% from its all-time highs. i bet the guys at coca-cola
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could get a terrific deal in this environment. american express should just bite the darn bullet and snap up paypal. this is more of a long shot because paypal is a $40 billion company. american express would have to get a lot of financing or issue a lot of stock to make the deal happen. but let's be honest, if amex doesn't do something dramatic, they could be stuck in an are you the for agrut for ages. they could be the king of online payments overnight. my travel trust owns both these stocks because their fundamentals are very good, which is the reason i'm recommending them. i never speculate on takeovers when fundamentals are materiali deteriorating. both white wave and paypal are too cheap for bigger companies that need to grow to ignore. here is the bottom line. in this terrible market, it's
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important to remember that companies can still take control of their own destiny and create value. baxter's spinoff of baxalta which is subsequently being bought by shire is a great example of something that worked out even in the worst market that we've had in years. "mad money" is back after the break. olay regenerist
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>> announcer: lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. it is time. it is time for the lightning round. you say the name of the stock. i don't know the calls or the name of the stock ahead of time. i tell you whether to buy or sell. when you hear this sound -- [ buzzer ] -- then the lightning round is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? dave in kansas. >> caller: booyah. what do you think of ambarella? >> they're way oversupply and intel kiboshed the last of the semis. joe in new jersey. >> caller: love your show. thanks for signing "get rich carefully" for me at barnes & noble last year. >> thank you for coming. >> caller: i already hold a
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position in valley national bank. i'm looking to add to it. >> i like that idea. it's a good bank. i would do it. curtis in north carolina. >> caller: thanks for taking the call. it's such a choppy clorox, i'm thinking clorox. >> if clorox comes down 2 or $3, i would agree. it's still too high. mordeau in new york. >> nvida. >> i think you pull it, 17% decline. it's a very good company. adrian in north carolina. >> caller: west rock, buy, sell or hold? >> this is packaging. ip can't get out of it. i've got to say no to packing right now. very close to finding a place to pull the trigger, though.
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sean in arizona. >> caller: booyah, jim. acuity brands. >> it happens to be overvalid in this particular environment. i would recommend the stock if it went down a little bit more. down 16%, i would pull the trigger there too. that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round. [ buzzer ] >> announcer: the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. when we left the office last night, it was like the old days, i wanted to sip a bottle of cheap scotch on my dirty linoleum floor. but the wife has me on this darn cleanse that would stuff the life out of anyone. i had a quinoa stuffed yellow pepper for dinner last night. and it was mm-mm bad. and i felt great. i wonder how my old pal johnny
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walker would go inside my spinach and lemon grass smoothie that now passes for dinner at the cramer household. i'm worth 31 gs this weekend. i was a 34 a year ago. >> you look 15 years younger. >> that cleanse is helping too. i went by the bar and had a glass of water. what would you like, your usual? no, actually water. >> pellegrino. i want to the dermatology today. >> what did they say? >> you have to get off of hd. >> i do want to take a bite of one those. >> why are we not eating? >> if i wasn't on this cleanse. >> get rid of the cleanse. balance, jim, balance.
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>> i'm 31 waist down from 33. >> i hate it but i'm looking good. >> you should scarf that thing down. >> i miss it. >> tomorrow. >> not today. >> i meanwhile will -- >> go do your cleanse and try not to give the wife too much grief. >> she's killing me with this ke quin quinoa, man, i hate it. quinoa, just nasty. wow, that was random. random? no. it's all about understanding patterns. like the mail guy at 3:12pm every day or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday. jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. td ameritrade.
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sure, china could hurt our markets. yes, oil is going so low it's actually causing stress in the credit markets. and it's true that the earnings this week were just okay. don't kid yourself about what the selloff is really about. it's about a potential recession. yet the potential for recession and what it will mean for corporate profits. ever since the fed started tightening we've seen a remarkable confluence of negative effects. a breakdown in the chinese stock market and horrendous action in the high yield bond markets. not all of these can be ascribed to the fed. that would be ridiculous. i'm not doing that. but what the fed does or doesn't do creates the backdrop with which we must play. and the backdrop has gotten so negative that if you're not seeing some cause and effect, you're lying to yourself. and many people are doing just that. i've told you that ever since the fed tightened when we to change our posture and get more defensive. that's because i've been taught by the late marty zweig that you
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should never fight the fed. you're fighting the fed when dudley comes out positive despite a totally obvious slowdown by any metric, the various regional fed reports, retail spending, and of course industrial production. even fed uber-hawk james board acknowledged in a speech yesterday that consumer spending peaked mid-2015 despite a decline in the price of oil. once the fight with the fed got started, we used to say at my old hedge fund that at times the market just wants to go down. that's when you know you're fighting the tape. sure, you can get big oversold bounces like we had yesterday. there will be more of them. but you don't get on terra firma until stocks hit levels where it's be saturday to tell.
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the fed felt it couldn't wait any more in december. even though all numbers are pointing down, autos have started to decline too, they felt they had to act. they just thought too much time had gone by and keeping rates low would create an inflation conflagration. of course the opposite has happened. inflation expectations have sunk much lower. but the fed chatters won't rein themselves in unless janet yellen comes out and says we will do nothing more unless we see some pickup in business. then we will remain tape fighters. the rate we have now is low, i'm not denying that. that's not the issue. the issue is we could have five hikes in 12 months and that will cause a drastic reduction in liquidity while so many countries have seen their liquidity dry up. that's the issue. if you want a firsthand experience of what it means to fight the fed versus being at
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peace with it, you have to go back to 1998. a period i wrote about in "confessions of a street addict." that's when i haplessly bought stock, ignoring the fed, then had to spit it out to save my firm. in the midst of the selling, the fed realized the error of its way, called an emergency meeting to stop the rate hikes because they were going to cause a recession. the market rallied like crazy, never looked back for years. that's what i'm afraid they'll do if you're all out of the market, that's why i don't want you to do that. you are fighting the fed big time. if the fed isn't careful, 2016 will mark a return to recession. that's the overarching reason for the selloff, especially in a world that is starved for growth. if janet yellen and company continue on their current course, stifling liquidity and raising rates five times in lockstep, that's exactly what we will get. stick with cramer.
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you never want to be too negative, which is why i did that baxalta piece. you want to be always on the lookout for opportunities. i recognize that if the fed is going to continue to raise rates, we will end up in a recession. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to find it for you right here at "mad money." i'm jim cramer. see you next time.
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