tv Squawk Alley CNBC January 21, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EST
welcome back. i'm jackie deangeles. the department of energy out with its weekly inventory report on crude oil. we got a build to four billion barrels. a build nonetheless, which typically should be bearish. prices slightly lower. 28.31 is where the wti is fairing. gasoline also really important here. a 4.6 million barrel build. the last two weeks we've seen 18 million barrels of gasoline building up here, so what's happening? more is being added that. obviously storage is an issue when it comes to crude oil, and the fundamentals are going to be in focus today. nonetheless, we may not go much lower from here. traders are telling me this is a market right now that's been so volatile. it's possible that we could move a little higher today. even potentially stabilize a little bit. especially as the equity market is moving up as well. now, the one thing that i want to dig into in this report is the production number to see
what happened weekly with u.s. production. we're trending over 9.2 million barrels a day. we've seen the number go up the last five weeks. if it continues to go up, guys, it still could be a problem for crude oil, carl. >> wow. thank you very much, jackie deangeles. giving us those numbers. meantime, it is just past 8:00 a.m. at twitter headquarters in san francisco. 11:00 a.m. on wall street, and squawk alley is live. welcome to squawk alley for a thursday. kayla and myself at post nine. the market is off the session highs. not nearly as volatile as where
heed. we had those ecb comments. we just got crude inventories and energy is, in fact, helping lead the markets higher. investors looking at all kinds of cues, including the ceo of morgan stanley. james joins "squawk box" this morning and gave us his take on the markets. take a listen to that. every single one of them is down. in three weeks. what happened? what was the trigger point here? you could imagine a correction off the highs. i'm not seeing this kind of violence. >> joining us fidelity investments. it's good to have you back. good morning.
>> the market has become uncoupled from fundamentals. do you think that's anywhere near being true? >>. >> certainly the u.s. economy domestically remains in good shape. we're kind of in a mid-cycle expansion heading towards late cycle. what's going on in my mind is a liquidity event. you know, the china story with the yuan coming down and the chinese central bank trying to make that slide more orderly. they draw down on the foreign exchange reserves, and at the same time the fed which presumably started passively and is actively tightening, that's draining liquidity from the system. this is a liquidity event and less of a fundamental event. at least for the u.s. economy.
>> when do you step in if you are going to buy? >> certainly the markets are very over sold. i was looking over the charts this morning, and, you know, only 7% of the market is above their 50 day moving average. extremely, extremely over sold. i'm not surprised that we're starting to see some bounces, and even, yes, today closing well off the lows, and small caps actually closing positive. those are some green shoots, i guess, in terms of the technicals. whether that's just a bounce or the start of a big v-bottom, which is something i'm looking for, at some point in the coming, you know, weeks or months certainly remains to be seen. everything is still kind of moving in the same direction.
i'm not seeing any real fundamental -- i believe you say that selling now would be a bad idea. does that mean buying is a good idea if you are like most investors and you have a decently long time horizon? >> yeah. if you are a typical investor, it's important not to panic at these times. if you have a good plan, stick with the plan. if you are under allocated to equities, for instance, these volatility events are opportunities just like we had last august and back in october of 2014 as well. for the typical normal investor with a long-term horizon, i think it's important just to stick with your plan and not be the person who sells at the bottom. >> to what extent do central banks here and in china try to
emiliurate, reverse course, and some either through dialogue or action? >> we're in this tug-of-war. between the pbo 6 and china and the u.s. fed. you know, the ecb has been in easing mode. it continues to be in easing mode. it will probably do more. the bank of japan has been in easing mode and probably will continue to do more of that now that the japanese stock market is down about 20%. china has an overvalued currency to come down, and capital is leaving, and, you know, that creates a tension because when -- every time the pboc intervenes in the currency market, they are spending down fx resefshz, and that is a form of tightening in my opinion.
at this point the odds of a rate hike are about 16% or so. that is the tug-of-war, and, you know, the fed to its credit. >> good setup for the remainder of the year that we have. over at fidelity. our next guest as far back as last summer has repeatedly said we gave you a hard time last summer when you were at record highs, and you are pounding this table pretty hard.
how do you feel right now? >> well, i'm not surprised, but i also wouldn't be surprised if we just go back up from here, and, again, when i said before when we talked about it before is i'm basing that call on is valuation, also the fact that the fed is tightening, makes it a little bit harder for the market to go up, but this is a long-term valuation call. if you do step back cyclically adjust cash flows, ultimately your only conclusion can be that stocks are incredibly expensive even now. if there is a lot more down side, it would not be surprising.
>> gas is cheap. you can use the money you are saving on gas to buy the s&p. if you wanted to, couldn't you? are you taking those dividends that you stop reinvesting? are you averaging them into the market now? >> yes. i own stock. the farther they fall, the more money i will put into the market. on a very long-term time horizon. the most professional investors you have on. they talk about they need to know what happens this week and next month. really the more stocks go down, the more attractive they get. very bullish long-term on the united states. being in the market is great, and the cheaper stocks get, the better risk profile you have and the better likely long-term return you have. >> we're not headed for
recession, and recessions have been wrong in the past. people should be aware of the fact that it might be wrong again, but for now as a lot of your guests have been saying, things look okay. let us hope that this is just a correction and ultimately we go up from here. >> if this is just a correction, henry, and your dire predictions aside, what are the tail winds in the market? are they the travel and entertainment stocks that we've heard these sxurmz who are saving gas money are putting money towards travel, entertainment? is it the fact that, let's say we don't get a rate hike in march, maybe that consumer loan demand goes up because rates stay low. what are the tail winds? p. >> long-term -- this goes back to the valuation issue.
long-term, unless something fumgts has changed, stocks are still very expensive on a cyclically adjusted basis. if you go out over the long-term, the expectation is that returns are going to be low. not necessarily negative, but much lower than folks had come to expect historically. >> henry, let's switch to the focus of the show, which is often silicon valley. we got a lot of tech companies or new listings with their share prices below the offer price. square comes to mind as of yesterday. how much pain does that create for owners, for late stage investors, and how much of a wash-out are you looking for, be they unicorn oorz not in the coming year? >> there's a big adjustment going on.
a preferred investor may have a protected return. the common shareholders that get hurt. once the company goes public, all that changes. one of the reasons you have seen public market investors get very sensitive to valuation, and we had a lot of companies have to reduce the price of the ipo to get the ipo done. that is to protect themselves because they don't have the same protection with preferred stock. investing in stocks is risky. one of the reasons you want some sort of appreciation on an ipo is to protect the investor a little bit who takes that risk. folks who bought square, other tech ipo's, big institutions, they know that this volatility is inherent in it. ultimately if the business is sound, this will just be volatility and we'll move past that the next couple of years. >> henry, we assume you have parties to get to, so we'll let you go. it's good seeing you from davos. henry of business insider. >> great to be here. thanks for having me. >> when we come back, which ceos
are getting it right, & wrong amid all this market volatility? bill george will join us with a list. plus, believe it or not one top investor manager says this correction is good news for the global economy, and he is with us to make his case. tough start to the year for jack dorsey. both twitter and square down about 20% in 2016. nick bilton, the man who wrote the book on twitter, will tell us if he has bitten off more than he can chew when we return.
wild volatility has characterized beginning of this year. one ceo is telling us which companies are getting it right and which are not. live from davos is bill george, former ceo of medicitronic, and cnbc contributor. >> you missed a great day of skiing. we weren't skiing. we were at meetings all day. >> sure, sure. that's what you like to tell us. bill, you are the ceo whisperer of sorts. i'm wonder whatting you are hearing from some of these ceos in davos. what they are saying is the biggest challenge to operate in this environment. >> clearly a huge volatility. the ceos are doing well. those that are highly adaptable to changing position. people like paul pullman who has a diverse fine market portfolio. china growth, no one knows what china growth is right now, but i can tell you they're very strong in vietnam.
vietnam is up 7.5%. i spent the last ten days there. things are booming there. >> adds warren buffett says, when the tide goes out, you finally are swimming naked. the weak companies are going to struggle, but the strong companies are going to move ahead right now. >> what is the risk that some of these ceos make knee-jerk decisions or have a knee-jerk reaction to what's going on in the market. the stock market used to be a referendum on certain initiative that is they were taking, whether it's growing or pairing back? they were able to see what the market thought of a certain decision. now it's only central banks that can move the stock. if you are a ceo, how do you leed read what your stock is doing and what you should do as
an executive? >> well, the ceos i'm talking to are not reacting to the stock market. it's been six or seven years above market. this is a natural correction. there's going to be a lot of stress. the strong companies i can x out will do just fine, and they'll come back strong. companies are going to take advantage of it. the automobile companies are going to take advantage of this market. the retailers are seeing tremendous -- i talked with -- wal-mart has a lot of changes, but doug is moving those changes forward. brian, at target, is not here, but he is moving his company forward very aggress he havely, and there will be more dollars in consumers' pockets. we can't look at them all as a negative. a lot of them are quite positive depend whatting sector you are
in. >> you say that the companies that are inefficient will be in trouble. you have to wonder is that code for layoffs coming, whether companies are doing well or not in this type of environment? do you expect to see job cuts or at least a pullback in hiring? >> that means more job cuts. that's a problem we haven't solved yet. i think we'll see some jobs cut in different places around the world. >> probably going to see more of a retail sector, but people are going to move forward. the ones that are -- by the way, a sleeper company out there, adidas, has a new ceo, and i think you'll see a lot of competition with nike going forward and also under armour.
"company like nestle or pepsi co will be the winners coming out of the consumer sector. companies that craft in heinz -- >> the leaders that you say are going to get this right, is the common thread that they are retrenching now for a true downturn to come? is that what they have in common? >> no, i don't think so. i think a lot of them have already cut costs. i don't think it's retrenching. they are getting more efficient and getting their costs in line. i tell you, the real winners, honestly, will be the innovators. my former company medtronic, i talked to several of their executives. they got a full pipeline, and the business is growing in markets that are flat. that's what you -- i think that's what is going to make this thing go.
you mean they are getting it wrong or -- >> i think steve has made very good changes. clearly they have a problem. they have a demographic problem. they're stuck on a declining demograph demographic. if you are stuck in basically an older blue collar market, that's a tough demographic. the most important thing for any company today, particularly consumer companies that get it right with millenials, tech companies, that don't have mill enwral leaders are going to struggle. i think you want to look at companies who really understand the millenials in depth and know how to meet their needs, whether it's a company like starbucks, compared to mcdonald's. or whether it's a retailer like target. they're the ones that seem to understand this. you see a lot of the clothing manufacturers kaf out of it. i think the ones that understand the mill enwrals, that's the big market that's growing.
not the older demographic. not my generation. we'll see who actually succeeds. >> i like mill enwrals. >> me too. >> yeah. it's been quite a selloff for the markets, but how low do stocks need to go before they're cheap again? we'll break it down. plus, amid all the volatility, europe's close has become a major catalyst for the markets. we'll bring it back to you live in just a few minutes. don't go away. there's a lot of places you never want to see "$7.95." [ beep ] but you'll be glad to see it here. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. if only the signs were as obvious when you trade. fidelity's active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points
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headquarte headquarters with more. >> back last spring we were about 17 times earnings on a forward basis. basically 17 times expected earnings for the next we're. that's pretty much as high as we've been for the entire bull market. that's still above the five-year average. you see the five -- this decolumbining general with the bear market and the u.s. market after having hit a 15% peak to trough decline in midday yesterday, that's sort of appealing to a lot of people like a 2011 european sovereign debt scare. in 2011 the market was a good deal cheaper. just over ten times earnings. that's the five-year low in valuation at the end of that
selloff in 2011. that perhaps would represent a genuinely cheap level given other things going on in the world with the market. that would be under their, you know, let's say 8% down. i honestly think there's a lot of blended valuation method that is say you have to go down 20% to get down to something that looks like very long-term fundamental value. >> the guidance for the year is still early. >> exactly. it's only as -- that's an issue. i would say that is also an issue in 2011 when the world seemed to be falling apart. you always have that problem when it comes to relying on
forward earnings. that's why if you look at the blended valuation measure, you get back to a very long-term median valuation by going down, let's say, another 8% from here. >> hey, michelle. >> let's take a look at the map here, and will you see that we have broad rallies across the entire continent with moves up roughly 2%. germany up 2% even though there's weakness in deutsche bank which we'll talk about in a second. i'll show you an intraday chart of the dax. you see this big spike here. mario draghi jaw-boning. that means he talked, but he didn't act. still what he said was enough to cause that big spike that you see intra-session there. draghi says circumstances have changed since december when the ecb governing council last met.
the plunge in the price of oil and the change in the price level of the euro, and not to mention the big selloff in the markets, and we know about the rise in geopolitical risks. >> now, these conditions have worsened, and i think to respond to your question, the credibility of ecb would be harmed if we were not ready. >> once again, draghi did not announce measures today, but he reiterated what he said to the speech in new york in december that within the bank's mandate, he believes in principle there's no limit to what the ecb can do. that helped almost all of the european banks. especially the hard hit italian banks. i know simon has been showing you those day after day. these moves are going to be extremely big because prices have fallen so much that even pennies can translate into big percentages. the one major exception is, of course, deutsche bank. dropping sharply again av
warning they are going to post a record loss for 2015. more than $7 billion. litigation. we mentioned that, dave, because that's when the new ceo took over and is trying to right this ship. it's been tough. guys, back to you. >> a lot of those headlines feel like deja vu. thanks for bringing them to us. up next, a rough start to the year for stocks, but our next guest says this correction could actually be good news for the global economy. he will join us to make his case when "squawk alley" returns. it was always just a hobby. something you did for fun. until the day it became something much more.
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i will take brilinta today. tomorrow. and every day for as long as my doctor tells me. don't miss a day of brilinta. >> here is your cnbc news update this hour. secretary of state john kerry meeting with israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu on the sidelines of the world economic forum in davos, switser land. the two talked about the efforts to start a diplomatic process to end the civil war in syria. pakistan observing a day of mourning following a deadly attack by islamic militants who stormed a university yesterday killing 21. flags on buildings and parliament flying at half mast today. in paris defense secretary ashton carter says the coalition battling isis must further contribute resources to accelerate that fight. he also invited russia and iran to join the coalition by ending
their support of syrian leader bashar al as yad. jp morgan chase giving its investment bankers an unusual mandate. take the weekend off. the firm launching the new effort today to encourage them to relax and enjoy life as long as there isn't a live deal in the works, of course. the initiative has been dubbed pencils down. we'll see. that's the cnbc news update this hour. back to "squawk alley." down to you guys. >> all right. thanks. i wonder if you are not busy enough then you take the weekend off. maybe you end up taking the whole year off. that would be my fear. the market is in positive territory at this hour. all seem significant declines. joining us now columbia thread
needle investments global chief investment officer -- does this feel healthy to you or does this feel like something to be concerned about. >> i think we're getting there. what we've been concerned about. the way i view it is think of a release valve on any system that's under pressure. occasionally you do have to have that spillage to allow the system to become more stable again. obviously we're going through that, and it's painful to go through that. i do think ultimately this helps stabilize expectations and, therefore, allows the markets to rebase, and that's what we're going through. >> at what point do we get concerned about this? is there some negative catalyst, something sends things particularly lower if we get the
debt concern in the drop of oil that people expect? >>. >> you have to look at how contained those are. will that be good news that there will be write-offs in the oil industry? no. but it's pretty heavily priced in to the high wreeld market, for example, and i think the capital structure of the viking system is so much higher that we can contain that. that's at the heart of this idea of whether it's a good correction, which i know nothing feels like a good correction, bad situation where we actually then maybe go into recession as opposed a lowering of growth expectations, and then what most people fear is that there's an ugly situation like in 2008 where there's a threat of the underlying financial system. there's lots of problems out there. don't get me wrong.
>> mike santoli just compared it to 2011, but the difference then was that the fear was in the sovereign debt market in europe rather than in the energy sector. is there a time or market you would compare with what we're going through now to figure out the precedent and what happens from here? >> i don't know if i have an exact date, but -- it actually agreed with a lot of his comments, and i'm actually pretty similar in terms of my view of where fair value is on the market. the comparison to that situation is people feared that that european debt crisis would roll over into more of a global situation, and it didn't. that would be the case that i would make that the fear about slowdown in china, the fear about the debt default in the energy industry are very serious, but they're not going to lead with that global contagion that would make us use 2008 as a comparison, so i think
the 2011 -- it's not perfect, but it's not a bad scenario. >> finally, colin, you know, i don't know how many analogs i have seen of this past year to 1937. you got ray dalio making comparisons to an environment where asset prices were inflated and then when it comes time for stimulus, there's the old pushing on the string problem. what's wrong with that argument? >> i don't think we have the level of asset price inflation that's being talked about. i'm not pretending that the markets would certainly be cheap and that they're necessarily lowers to fair value now. they're very cheap now, but not as hyper inflated as i think they were then. >> we're building up the global pressures that eventually led to the second world war, et cetera. i just don't see that that type
of global contagion is coming into the system, and i would reject that we're in a 1937 situation. >> when we come back, not the best year for jack dorsey. shares of both square and twitter down more than 20% we're to date. nick builton, who is one of the experts on the company and jack, will join us. rick santelli, what are you watching today? >> i'm drawing a few charts we'll look at after the break. really the big question we should be asking is to be or not to be a recession in 2016? the answer isn't easy, but the discussion is essential. all after the break.
coming up, have stocks and oil found a near-term bottom? our experts weigh in on all of the volatility we've been seeing. plus, the analyst who says it's time to buy fitbit joins us in our call of the day and the cio of eaton vance is with us. where is eddie perkin putting his $6 billion to work? john, we're going ask him in about 15 minutes. >> all right. sounds good, scott. looking forward to that. now, let's get to the cme group. rick santelli with the santelli exchange. hey, rick. >> hi, john. listen, you know, the start of 2014, 2015 and 2016 purely from the eyes of the ten-year as a benchmark have many
similarities. now, my charts aren't perfect, but you could tweak your own if you want to see. in the beginning of 2014 we started out at 303. it was the high yield. right at the 21st of january current date we're on, it was 283. we dropped 20 basis points. if we look at what happened last year in the beginning, pretty much the same pattern-wise. a little more juice. down 34, 217-183. basic, we basically came very close to settling on change. this year in 199 or minus 28. they rhyme, but it's important to understand why these dynamics are so similar. the u.s. economy barring -- take the stock market valuations out because part of those valuations, of course, were based on pumping them up from the central bank perspective.
>> when i look at interest rates moving down and the chatter on the floor is, oh, my gosh, i can't believe rates are going down, i can't help but think there are thrill yonz of dollars in a coral on the fed's balance sheet should they hit the market? i think it might make a difference. and when you look at it another way, i'm not sure if there's going to be more qe, okay, but if there is not more qe, over time just look at what the cbo projections are for deficits? from 2016 to 2025. eventually that coral is going to be less important. we have auctions pretty much every other week. ultimately consider the simple form of what happens. commodities moved up. energy moved up.
much of that was fueled by the same thing that fueled stocks. excess liquidity created by central banks. that created leverage, lerchlg moved into the carry trade, and all of that, of course, has been revers reversed. on the way up i was saying i look at the data and stocks. it doesn't make sense to me. now many of you, which didn't agree with me then, are making comments now. market and stocks moving down for anti-leverage reasons, doesn't make sense. well, it wasn't as good on the way up. it's not as bad on the way down. but the fed needs to normalize rates. in the end if there's going to be a recession, it's needed. i don't think playing with rates at this point is going to make a difference either way. maybe the fed shouldn't think like a day trader. maybe if they framed all of this in a two to five year horizon the markets would understand a little better. kayla, back to you. >> well, the traders seem to know what the fed is doing before it even does it. we'll keep watching that, rick, thanks. something we're not used to seeing. a strong gain in the price of oil today. jackie deangeles is at the nymex
with more on that big intraday move. >> good morning to you, kayla. that's right. the march contract of wti now trading over $29 a barrel. it's a more than 3% move higher. i have a host of reasons after the department of energy report to tell you why crude should be going lower. i'll give them to you. u.s. gasoline inventories, the highest since 1990. u.s. production, 9.235 million barrels per day. it's up seven straight weeks in a row. also, fresh reports that the iraqis are at record production. why are we moving higher here? some of the volatility yesterday certainly driven by the exploration. also, there's selling fatigue in the market. we always say this. it doesn't go down in a straight line. when you have violent knee-swreshg reactions like this that we've seen the last couple of days, it's not surprising to get a little bit of a relief rally here and shrug off some of the numbers. that doesn't mean necessarily that we've hit that bottom. back to you. >> all right. thanks, jackie for that update. not the chart jack dorsey wants
new is ford. america's best-selling brand. now get into a new focus, fusion, or escape with 0% financing for 60 months plus $2,000 dollars trade-assist cash. only at your local ford dealer. >> it's been a rough year for jack dorsey, who has seen both twitter and swear fallen off their ipo prices. has he bitten off more than he
can chew? nick bilton, the author of hatching twitter. good to see you again. >> did you miss me? good morning. >> yes, actually. especially since weave been talking about this issue every day for weeks. >> i think running two companies is hard. running two companies that have recently gone public is even harder and running two companies where one of them has been in turmoil since literally the day it began, twitter, is close to impossible. i think that, you know, it's very clear that jack has become capable of being a ceo of a big company. you know, he proved that by growing square. twitter needs his full attention, and i don't know how he can run two companies with all the problems that twitter is facing and the stock decline that has happened over the past year. >> what is it about these jobs in particular that make them so difficult because, for instance, somewhere p morgan chase is run by one person, and it has more
revenue in each of its business segments in a quarter than square and twitter do combined. there are singular people running giant companies that on a scale are much bigger than these two. >> jp morgan chaz has been around for decades, and social media within itself is only ten years old. i think that, you know, with twilter what you are seeing, you know, if you want to look at square, for example, i think that one of the problems is it's a company that's still growing. it's still trying to grow its revenues. it's still trying to prove that it can get new useers and new revenues streams. when you look at twitter, they actually do have the finances figured out. they're pulling in $2 billion a year in revenue, but they still haven't figured out the product. i think when you look at the company like that, that is up against so many challenges, you know, jack is seen hemorrhaging a high level employees. can't sign up new users. the list could go on and on and on. we've discussed it a thousand
times. i think it needs his full attention, but also it needs a reinvention. this thing hasn't changed in a decade and what i would do -- if it were up to me, i would say, okay, if i were starting twitter today, what would i do differently. how would i start it today not looking at the blockades i had nine, ten years ago when it first began. >> nick, it is the employees who are going to decide this. not investors. swrak has voting control at square. twitter just picked him as ceo knowing full well that he was staying at square. i mean, industrials really don't have a lot of leverage here, but if employees leave, if top managers pressure him, isn't that the way we're going to see any shift in this? >> i don't think it's -- i think it's the way we're going to see a shift is if jack dorsey perceives that jack dorsey is not going to be perceived as the great ceo that he wants to be.
this is his legacy. you know, these two companies are the things that he founded so far, and unless he figures out a way to turn them around, i believe that either someone is going to come along and acquire them for a very low price or that it's going to fail. it's a big task he has. >> yesterday sun trust said that m&a is increasingly a part of the conversation around twitter at least. today the journal names all the usual suspects. s google, time warner, fox. what happens from an m&a standpoint if something happens? >> well, the thing -- this is what i know. there are rumors that facebook would not be interested. that isn't true.
whenever there's a major news event during the day, the political campaign, you don't live stream and watch tv and check your facebook feed. you watch twitter. facebook hasn't figured out real-time news events. you know, there are hundreds of other companies that i'm sure would be interested. there are only a handful that i think can afford them. that is the key. if you look at larry paige, you know, does he want to spend $15 billion on twitter, or does he want to buy another robot company that he can use to take over the world or whatever it is? he is going to pick the robots. what i have heard from reporting is no one really wants to put in an offer for twitter at this price. it's still a little too high. they think that, okay, if mark zuckerburg comes along and says i'm going to try to buy it, then larry paige will say, wait a minute, i want it. then you have a bidding war, and the price goes up. i thinkist going to be a little white whale before the price goes down any further and we see
anything like that actually coming to fruition. that is going to be a story and a saga. >> there is the chance that he figures this out and the stock rebounds and the users do too. that's the other alternative. >> come back soon. nilt bilton from the "new york times" joining us from out west. when we return, a galaxy far, far away just got a little farther. more on that when we come back.
star wars fans will have to wait a bit longer for the next installment. pushed back from may of 2017 to december 2017. raising the prospect that it becomes sort of a christmas phenomenon which would be nice for star wars fans. ? i'm okay with this. it felt too clustered together. you have road one coming out in december, and there's so much hype around these. people would have been anticipating the next summer release of the next. instead of paying attention to it. it's like the kids now. we try to stagger their gifts. we'll kind of hide some and bre them out later. >> i'm just glad to have a full year to watch one, two, and three now. >> you don't have to watch one, two, and three. >> meantime, what a day for market action. the premarket was soft. then draghi spoke, and the
premarket got strong. opened with a gain. went into the red. now session highs, up 215. all of this on the heels of oil, which is putting together a pretty nice rally. up $1.50. almost at $30. that's the march contract. whopner has his hands full. let's get to headquarters and the half. >> carl, thanks so much. welcome to the halftime show. let's meet our starting line-up for today. joe here. steve is here. john and pete courtside as well, and steve grasso on the floor of the new york stock exchange. with us as well on the set senior economics reporter steve liesman. our game plan looks like this. fit or bit? with the stock sinking below its ipo price, one wall street firm ups it to outperform. you'll hear from the analyst who made the call of the day. bottom fishing. is crude oil getting closer to finding its floor? we'll ask bank of america's head of global