tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC January 25, 2016 5:00am-6:01am EST
good morning. let's make a deal. johnson controls reportedly in advanced talks to buy tyco. the price tag could reach $20 billion. >> the big cleanup, the east coast digging out, airlines trying to get back on schedule. this after the second biggest storm in new york city history. and super bowl 50 is set. broncos and panthers will take lehigh stadium. it's monday, january 25th, "worldwide exchange" begins now. good morning, welcome to "worldwide exchange." on cnc.
i'm sarah ivan. >> and i'm wilfred frost, business looks to return after an historic winter storm. u.s. futures pointing lower down about 65 points on the dow. >> hanging ton that friday ral list, here's some big stories we're watching at this hour, johnson controls reportedly in advanced talks to buy fire protection and security company tykeco international. johnson controls manufactures car batteries and heating equipment. but the goal is focusing on unbilleding its efficiency and automotive battery operations. importantly, this could be an inversion deal, as tyco is headquartered in ireland. so purchase could cut its taxes by moving its domicile from the u.s. to ireland. no word if johnson controls does plan to pursue that inversion action. what we think is more notable we
could see potentially multibillion dollar deals for what has been a tumultuous start in january. >> right. let's focus on twitter. shaking out the management ranks, the biggest upheaval since jack dorsey returned as ceo last year. the heads of product engineering and media are leaving. dorsey has confirmed the moves saying all four have chosen to leave. in a sweet, he said all four will be take something well-deserved time off. ceo adam bain will take over some of those responsibilities. the changes came after the stock hit a new all-time low. look at that down sharply 42% in the last three months. >> we talk about markets in turmoil. is this a company in turmoil. the company is expected to show
earnings february 10th. that ease of growth hasn't moved at all, 320 million. jack dorsey, there were questions whether or not he could do it. >> i wonder if ever we get to a point where they trial payment on twitter. i always said they should give it a go as an option. you could either continue free or you have to pay. even if it's like a dollar a month or something. see if people start taking that up. >> that's where they are. any ideas with the exodus continuing with the executives. over in asia, we did see gains there overnight with markets now closed, china managed to eke out a gain for korea and australia. down double digits for 2016. and europe losing some steam here. we're going to be watching this closely. dax managed to hold in positive
territory just barely. little moves compared to what we've seen over the last few weeks, though, where we saw sharp selloffs, high volatility. euro to bes co s sharp selloffs, high volatility. euro to bes cotocks, coming off back-to-back gains. >> a rally last late week in europe. and strong on friday for the nikkei, as we pointed out on hopes that the boj meeting thursday and friday will be absolutely crucial for sentiment there. i'd say actually over the weekend, more of the noise is coming out with dampening of expectations for boj and dax. like the glass half empty from business economists calling to a survey by the national association of business economists, they're expecting sales at their firms to slow along with overall economic growth. at the same time, the majority
of economists said they plan to raise wages this quarter. on that note, another important indicator, gas prices, the average price of a regular gallon of gas fell 14 cents in the last two weeks to its lowest level in the last 12 years. the national price, $1.90. the cheapest in tulsa, oklahoma. the highest, as usual, in l.a., where the average is $2.80. and we raise the question again and again, why are we seeing consumer spending? perhaps we'll see it. it's happening at restaurant, it's happening at auto dealers. the question is can it continue and spread into the broader economy. we'll see what happens this year. >> i mean, it's still the big question. at least it's not quite as bad as japan where saving remains the order of the day. the. the week will start out with
a lighter slate today. the day ahead shows the dallas fed survey is out. and mcdonald's reports earnings. and dr horton and kleenex maker kimberly-clark. check out the rest of the week, apple and facebook. a little bit broader today, but as the week goes on lots and lots of earnings, folks. the question what we've asked in the last week, will earnings be able to lead market moves? >> looking at the big ones on thursday. thursday is going to be fun. amazon, microsoft, caterpillar, across the industries. and the guidance is going to be the key question. check out the markets. of course, we'll show you what's happened with oil. it's been such a lead indicator in stocks. it's under pressure after it bounced sharply last thursday
and friday. giving up some gains. wti staying 31.35. brant also in that region, 31.49. pressure on national gas as well. pressure has been a warning sign for stocks, so many people saying we can't find the bottom for stocks until we find the bottom for oil. early action has tendsed to reverse that session. >> sure. we're under pressure today, but probably say, oh, still recover a bit from the middle of last week when we were looking at particularly -- >> throw $27 a barrel. now, we're back to $31. >> right. even though we're down today, it's more positive than the worst moments this year. interestingly, it's been a factor to cement risk areversion. i think we need to see more elsewhere in the economy. >> and how much does it need to bottom before the fundamentals like earnings and economic data can come back into play.
we're talking with tobias le leftowitz later. >> we'll look at the u.s. dollar very quickly as well. we've seen it strengthen a little bit today against certain currency. the euro bouncing back up yard. elsewhere, you can see some u.s. dollar movement. it's up against the pound. down slightly against the yen as well. got more stockins to watche. sun edison, and owning about 8% of the firm as of january 11th. google agreeing to pay $180 million in back taxings to the uk. the british authority challenged the tech giant, some critics in britain want more call this, quote, a sweetheart deal.
and yahoo! changed to begin letting options investing after one month, rather than the standard one-year period. going shorter term there. interesting. if yahoo! considers its options for the future, perhaps there is in the core business. >> and google, how long before we call it alphabet. >> alphabet formally known -- >> how long before we just say alphabet? >> people have been saying it. other corporate news. facebook announcing planning to open a new data center in ireland run on 100% clean wind power. the apple executive who have been overseeing the company's electric car project for the last two years is leaving the company. he previously worked with the iphone teams. it's due to personal reasons and
not related to performance at apple. shares of rubbermaid today, the stock could jump 20% or more as the company benefits from its announced acquisition. residents along the east coast are still digging out from the year's first major winter storm that dumped more than two feet on some areas. we all saw it here in new york city. we'll be likely get back to normal. landon dowdy joins us with more, good morning. >> good morning. i've never been so happy to get out of snow boots and back in heels at 5:00 in the morning because the storm has come and gone. but airline passengers may still have a real day ahead as they face more flight cancellations from main destinations. many airports shut down with the
storm dumping as much as 2 feet of snow on some areas. and some have come back on line. philadelphia, baltimore and new york's three main airports coming back on line on sunday. and reagan expected to be back on today. the storm caused 13,000 cancellation. 3500 flights scrapped friday, saturday, 5,000. 4,000 sunday and about 1,000 today. if you have one, airlines have offered flight refunds or ways to change and waive fees for passengers to fly another day. still to come, the john manly, the chief equity strategist at fargo joins us. first, before we head to break,
we want to hear from you, what did you binge-watch this weekend agency the snow fell. we'll share the best of the bunch on air. stay tuned, we're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. weinto a new american century. born with a hunger to fly and a passion to build something better. and what an amazing time it's been, decade after decade of innovation, inspiration and wonder. so, we say thank you america for a century of trust,
way to head imf boss. she received support from france, girl nanny, italy, china, south korea and mexico, unofficial backing from the united states. this comes even as la guaalaguas after criticism from france. let's check in on markets overseas. nancy hulgrave joins us now with a view of european markets from london. nancy. >> hi, wilwilfred. well, there was so much optimism, we thought the two-day rally was going to turn into a long rally. that is not the case. the good news coming off lows of the session, nevertheless, we are back in negative territory. let's take a look at the sectors one by one, because investors here continue to take a cue from the move in oil prices. with oil prices back in the red,
it is no surprise we're seeing oil and gas stocks among the worker in europe. the overall sector off about 1.6%. also interest in banks which did get a boost and that rally, 1.4%. and let's take a look at how this is playing out in the markets. ftse 100, no trice. off by 1.3%. the dax did flirt in positive territory a minute ago, this despite disappointing data coming off the german think tank there. the french cac off about 0.42%. the italian market, ftse mib off by 0.7%. after the banks last week, the government executives there coming out trying to reassure
investors that we do have a down day in italy as well. investors will continue to keep an eye on the oil prices. back to you. >> the markets so far to discuss this, joining us is john manly, he's wells fargo funds chief economist. john, thank you for joining us. the stocks have rallied from where it was. we're back about 30. is that crucial, the market sentiment, just more broadly? >> i think it is. oil is indicative of what's going on in the economy. that's where the concerns are. a supply and demand issue, i think it's a little bit of both. but we worry the demands isn't dwight what it was and that could cause the demand to go down even farther. >> after the three weeks so far and the two days of gains last thursday and friday, are you willing to say the worst is behind us, or not yet? >> no i don't think i am. i'm pretty optimistic.
>> i know you are. >> i should be pretty good at being wrong because i've done it for a long time. >> you're not alone. >> i'm not alone. what usually happens you get a "w" bottom. it goes down until we don't know why it goes down. but there is good reason almost always i just don't know what it is. when i find out and the streets finds out, it usually bounces. and comes back and then up again. i think we get up as easy as one day, but i don't think we're out of can control. i don't think china's out of control. i don't think the earnings are out of control. the fed can still do it. and there's latent demand among consumers. >> the fed can still control things, you think. what are you expecting from them? >> well, the fed will be able to offset a lot of strengths. they still are to a certain degree. i don't think where they're
going to stay where they are, 25 basis point's. >> they have to acknowledge what's happening in the markets, right? >> absolutely. >> they have to acknowledge that four hikes this year is not realistic? >> i think they will say, they're day to day, which is how i'm going to fly tomorrow. if i know i'm supposed to land, a half an hour later, i'm not going to get often in richmond, virginia. you get there when you get there. >> to what extent is it actually based on the fact that most long term investors are sitting on pretty big gains? >> i think it's two combinations. you have superb gains from the last two or three years. it's a combination. like if the plane falters, jump and worry about it later. that's not necessarily the right thing to do. but that's the normal thing to do. >> so, what is the right thing to do, buy and wait for the
turbulence to end? >> as i said, i don't see it falling apart. there is a post gold at the end of the rainbow at some point in time we put all of this behind us. we got the pretty depression behind us and inflation behind us. and the markets soared when that happened. at some point we put the great squeeze or crunch in front of us. >> last week, we got devilishness but nothing happened. and this week, would you be putting money into the europe and japanese? >> as the u.s. economy gets better. i think you're right, though, japan and europe are going to be more and more clearly easing in tellers of what they're doing. they're tending to push money towards the economy. that tends to make capital markets rise. >> the focus is going to come
back to earnings. we've got a ton of biggies. big name tech stocks and famed stocks. and a lot of dow components. isn't the key, john, bigger names have to recover for the markets to be better? >> you're right. earnings have to be better. i'd say it's oil but that captures a little too much or too little at the same time. i think seeing something a quarter or two out that let loose and be more positive. whether i like it or not, the ball's now in oil's court. the people who expect it to go up, we need signs that the economy getting better. the economies will get better. there's a lot out there when that happens. but we have to show it first. >> john manly, thank you for joining us. and early morning. when we come back, we're now one week away from the iowa caucuses, as the candidates come
together, a new name could soon enter the race. first before we head to break, today is the forecast from kelly cass. good monday morning. the digout continues all the way from new england. places like new york city getting above the freezing mark into the mid-30s. that's about your average for this time of year going into the last week of january. then we watch the next system moving in the middle of the country, look at this, rain as far north as chicago. now, it will be a cold rain with temperatures up in the upper 30s. places like the twin cities may see an inch of snow. across the rest, we're pretty quiet from seattle to san diego. temperatures in los angeles about 71 degrees with a good deal of sunshine out there. now, we're looking really nice temperaturewise, across the south as well. getting rid of that crust and ice across north carolina. temperatures rise to the 50s. atlanta, miami, 71 degrees. across the northern tier of the
country, hey, even this isn't too bad. 28 degrees in bismarck. 39, chicago. mid to upper 30s from new york up to boston. . data rich (we hear t.i.'s "whatever you like") i think we can get used to being data rich. get data rich. get unlimited data on four lines for $180 a month when you have at&t wireless and directv. but are you gonna bring fiup that stock again? well you need to think about selling some of it. my dad gave me those shares, you know. he ran that company. i get it. but you know i think you own too much. gotta manage your risk. and you've gotta switch to decaf. an honest opinion, even if you disagree. with 13,000 financial advisors,
exchange." big weekend for sports. here's what you need to know the matchup for super bowl 50 is now set after the final four teams battled it out on sunday for a spot in the big game. the afc championship was a nail-biter. real fight to the finish. patriots quarterback tom brady hitting tight end rob gronkowski
in the back of the end zone to bring new england within two points. but the pats missed the two-point conversion to tie it. and denver pulling out 20-18. at 39 years old, manning is the oldest quarterback to lead a team to the super bowl. poor brady, he really wanted to clinch the revenge from deflate-gate. in the other game, the arizona cardinals took on the carolina panthers. it was carolina the whole way, they had a big lead and never looked back. cam newton scoring one himself. carolina 29-14. carolina versus denver in the super bowl 50 sunday february 7th, in santa clara, california. one not to miss. >> i'm betting on carolina, you? >> i'll take that on.
the top stories including a $20 billion deal. plus, how much would you pay for a picture of a potato? probably not as much as the guy we'll tell you about, that crazy story straight ahead. first, before we head to break, talk about futures. price of oil falls back, so do stocks. nothing as extreme like the triple-digit move we saw last week. stick with us, you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. it's hard to find time to keep up on my shows.
that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhere. ready or not, here i come! (whispers) now hide-and-seek time can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time. here i come! can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv.
telling us changes are coming at twitter. details on an executive shuffle straight ahead. the big cleandown, the east coast dig frougt a record making storm. and it's your money, your vote. we're now one week away from the iowa caucus. the big story, could a new name enter the race. it's monday, january 25th, 2016, and you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. ♪ ♪ welcome to new york it's been waiting for you ♪ hey, a very good morning to you. and a warm welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm wilfred frost. >> and i'm sara eisen. u.s. equity futures under pressure after two-day gains thursday, friday. strong gains on friday giving back early action in europe, lightly trading. lightly lower.
oil is down. that's hurting futures. s&p futures down one. they recovered a bit. dow futures down 28. nasdaq down 7. here are the big stories you're watching this hour, johnson controls in talks to buy tyco international. johnson controls manufacturers batteries and heating equipment. tyco is headquartered in ireland. so a purchase would let johnson controls cut its taxes by moving its domicile from the u.s. to ireland. but no word on specific terms or indeed if johnson plans to pursue that. >> hillary already said she could have an excise tax. we're watching twitter this morning. the big el upheaval since jack dorsey returned as ceo. the held of the company's product, engineering, media and
human resources team are leaving. and twitter will appoint two new board members and high-profile media personalities. twitters by dorsey said all fou will be taking well-deserved time off. keep in mind, it comes days after twitter stock hit a new low and continued to fall. down double digits the past year. it is time for them to shake it up and figure out something new for investors to latch on it. can they grow user growth at all from that falling 20 billion mark. in political news, a lower high profile politician and
billionaire may be are youing for the white house. many expect that bloomberg could take votes away from clinton, although a third party bid would be tough. the last major candidate, ross perot won nearly 90% of the vote in 1992, which some said helped beat george h.w. bush. donald trump and hillary clinton say they welcome the challenge. >> michael has been a friend of mine. i would love to have michael bloomberg. i would love that competition. >> you're not worried about him getting in? >> well, the way i read what he said, if i didn't get the nomination and consider it. well, i'm going to relieve him of that and get the nomination so he doesn't have to. >> bernie sanders who is threatening hillary clinton in iowa, and new hampshire is cool to the idea of a bloomberg candidacy. he said the american democracy isn't supposed to be a contest between billionaires. >> everybody is writing about
including the journal today calling it the bloomberg view. something to contemplate. the fact that usually independents don't usually do so well in american elections. but this case is different with the rise of bernie sanders and donald trump. there could be appeal from bloomberg on both sides of the aisle. >> it's a fascinating racing as it is already. amazing, considering doing it even without the caucuses, he's just going to do it independently. >> according to some reports, they'll decide by march. a california judge ruling that sumner redstone can be examined by a doctor hired with the mogul's ex-girlfriend. iran says it will buy 114 airbus planes to revitalize its fleet. this is the first major commercial move to announce under the existence of its
nuclear agreement. rouhani is visiting italy and france. san edison will reportedly give ihearn a board seat. and another buzzing head line this morning, the financial times reporting third avenue management assets have fallen by more than $1 billion to $5 billion. this comes six weeks after the firm froes froze redemptions fr troubled junk bonds. trading in europe, lose something steam as the energy producers and miners weigh on markets. and you see it turn green but still in italy and spain watching the price of oil a bit after losses. those turning green reporteredl
after the two-day stretch. japan and south korea and australia finishing in green. we'll seer it's a big week. the federal reserve meets this week. we get a ton of earnings in the u.s. we've got a bank of japan meeting as well this week. there's a lot for investors to chew on potentially some calm, after the storm here, in the last three weeks. >> australia in the back of decent business confidence. oil falling today, and the percentages look significant, do bear in mind, of course, last week we were in and around 27. so this, is still above 30, which is a positive development, i would say, from the lows of the risk eversion moments of this year so far. let's look at the ten-year note in the fact of last week,
highlighted by the fact we're back about 2% on the treasury note. with bond buying and safe haven purchasing. and the dollar as well, the euro bouncing back a little this week. after mario draghi on thursday and friday. and gold which continues to trade, despite all the risk eversion we see. 1,103 bucks at the moment for gold. >> we should just mention where we are on stockings. this is the last trading week for january. january has been insane for investors. it's actually looking like the worst month for u.s. stocks. even though last week was the first positive week of 2016, it's been brutal, about 7% declines for the s&p and dow. >> and insane is a very apt word. it's been crazy. >> it has been.
people are still trying to 23ig out the real reason, oil, and the global sphere. i would wonder what light pink says for the markets. jeff bezos made history landing a rocket for the second time. another step forward to make, quote, millions of people living and working in space possible. >> i love this race. good luck to all of them. i hope they're all successful in the epic thing to pursue. >> who's got the biggest rocket? no, but, seriously, elon musk tweeting importantly there's a difference i guess going into orbit and going -- >> oh, yeah, and bringing it back down again. a long way to go before consumer face travel. and suspicions of match
fixing at the australian open. a mixed doubles match raised red flags after $25,000 came in on a betting website. the betting price is usually around$,000. this week after buzzfeed and bbc reported as many as 16 pro players had been involved in match fixing. and the next trending story, the photographer who has snapped johnny depp and yoko ono has just snapped a picture of a potato for $1.5 million. anonymous businessman bought the picture after spotting it on a wall. he said that was the most paid for a photo that wasn't commissioned. this is ridiculous. it's a potato. his studio quoted kevin saying kevin likes potatoes because
they like all people are different. of course, is this like going too far. a potato. >> i would agree with you. >> the bottom line which die like, he said photographers have photographed many potatoes. this one is his favorite. of course, it just made him $1.5 million. >> and it's a dirty potato. i don't get it. as we know, your first blizzard, yes, you survived? >> just. no, way worse than i expected. but it wasn't that cold or dangerous. it was quite fun. the east coast still digging out from a blizzard. our seema mody joining us with the look at commercial slowing down, seema? >> absolutely. new york is preparing for a normal working day but this is following what was the second biggest snowstorm to hit
new york city. a combination of snow, nearly 27 inches, wind and ice in other parts of the east coast getting hit even harder. expect a slower commute to work today. a lot of snow on the sidewalks. a lot of brown slush as you walk around wall street today. the big topic of discussion will be how will bad weather impact the economy. this year has shown us that harsh weather conditions can take a toll on growth resulting in slower productivity. the change in products and services available and therefore, consumer demand. in fact, in the first quarter of 2015, growth in the u.s. slowing to 0.2%. it's done of the reasons that earnings are coming in weaker than expected. retail says in that first quarter, auto sales. consumer spending which makes up two-thirds of the u.s. economy coming in weaker than expected. a variety of factors of metrics that do show how bad weather can in fact the u.s. economy.
at this point, speaks to economists this morning and even last night, it's hard to quantify how this winter storm jonas will impact the u.s. economy. but, of course, if bad weather persists it could result in a slowdown. for now, sara and wilfred, back to you. >> seema mody live in manhattan. it seems like we were talking about the 70 degree abnormal weather in new york city was hurting the retailers because they couldn't sell cold weather gear. >> but sunny today. >> i hear snow is in order again on wednesday. when we come back, today's must-reads including what everyone is talking about, ina look at what could happen to donald trump if michael bloomberg goes in the race.
i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet? now for today's must reads.the stories that caught our attention over the weekend and today has to be the des moines register. the major paper in iowa announcing its endorsements for the gem cattic and republican nominations. the news outlet writing, deciding this one wasn't easy. they chose hillary clinton on the democratic side. and marco rubio coming out on top on the republican side. on rubio, the senator has the potential to chart a new direction for the party and perhaps the nation with his message of restoring the
american dream. they say he's not perfect on everything but they like his attitude. they think he needs to shift to more positive and not emphasize the negativity. on hillary, the paper says no other candidate can match the depth or brettth of her knowledge and experience. interesting 538, the site run by nate silverberg looked at how important the nomination is for iowa 54s not too much. in 2008, they did endorse hillary clinton and john mccain. the only person who really got a bump from this poll, john edwards who they endorsed in 2004 and his polling went from 13% to his actual vote of 32%. could it be a game-changer, not necessarily. in a world have donald trump has 5 million twitter followers. >> it would be interesting race
if we had those two, as the paper suggests, clinton and rubio. and again, mayor bloomberg shakes things up. he may join the race. in the financial tileses, it's what bloomberg's entry would do for trump. went 2016 is different. the political laws of gravity are in suspension. if there was ever a moment of a new york billionaire to roll the dice, now would be it. the question is what would happen if he did. this would really, really ruffle feathers you know, he's supposedly relatively similar to hillary clinton. and the question is would he even stay if clinton gets the nomination. he's probably going to wait around to march. >> the question is, would he take away the votes from the democrats? that's sort of on the republican
response on the campaign trail, bring it on. though he is right in issues like the middle east and the economy. he's such a name brand billionaire, what about the rest of the country. >> i mean, very, very interesting. another extra chapter to this race, one week to go until the iowa caucuses, all eyes of course on that. another stood out that is worth reading, problems at theranos. u.s. officials found inconsistencies at the testing facilities. failing to test a product could put the lab in suspension. in 2014 valid at $9 billion. and then the journal wrote a series of pieces questioning the
technology which are a few drops of blood rather than vials to test. the problems suggested that now there could be repercussions. another one to read. when we come back, why oil splice not be dictating the markets, tobias levkovich chief economist joins us. first, a beautiful sky show. hundreds of people gathering in the swiss alps for the annual hot air balloon festival. spectators watching as people from 15 countries launch giant balloons. running through the end of the month.
to space planes, across the universe and beyond. and if you thought that was amazing, you just wait. ♪ in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. all across the state the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, the lowest taxes in decades, and university partnerships, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. like in utica, where a new kind of workforce is being trained. and in albany, the nanotechnology capital of the world. let us help grow your company's tomorrow, today at business.ny.gov futures under some pressure this morning. following what we're seeing in oil. wti crude down 2.4%. brent lower as well.
the relationship between the price of crude and stocks has taken center stage during the sellout which is something our next guest calls unwarranted. tobias levkovich from citi group joins us now. >> you're crabby, but you're also crabby about this relationship tick for tick with stocks. >> i do think the relationship with the oil and markets are overdone. i think the reason that people are focused on it, thinking about it, "a" as a measure of global activity, which really isn't what it is with supply and demand. number two, i think what people are focused on and credit exposures. and worried about previous cycles, for example, prime problem with credit, 708. and this just isn't, "a," as
large. and still a global good is the best way to describe it. lower energy prices is a tax benefit for far more people than a specific bad for certain economies and certain countries. >> but what about the pace at which oil has fallen, whether you look at it one month or 18 months. whether it's a positive or not, there are a lot of negatives to come out of that speed. >> absolutely. what we saw, as you took off a number of rigs, for example, in the u.s., what you'd see, people saw their business drop to a now nonproducing rig 100%. these are very severe drops when they occur. what people don't understand the detriment of high energy prices take about 18 months to work their way through the company. society the perception as oil prices fell that you get this big consumer boost right away that would offset the negatives
on the industrials of the economy. that is just kicking in now. >> tobias, what's been interesting to watch during the selloff, it hasn't been a panic-driven selloff. the vix hasn't spiked. gold is up a bit. nothing extreme. does that tell you anything the way it's been orderly? >> i get nervous when i hear the term orderly, everybody says, don't worry, everything's cool. yet, there hasn't been a lot of money coming into the market when it was moving up pretty strongly. so, as a result, it's not necessarily about money flow coming out as aggressively as in the past. i have personal displeasure of vix being a fear gauge. you want to look at a 90-decor las vegas? >> what does that tell you? >> vix between 10 and 20 give you a higher probability of
higher markets than you have between 20 and 30. which most people don't even run the numbers to figure that out. they assume it just isn't accurate. so, what i would be looking at, instead, things like interest stock correlation. the top 15 in the s&p 500, how correlated they are, are we seeing them trading up or down and in sync. we probably run 66% level with the correlation, that's already pretty high and suggests that people has gotten very nervous with that. >> to sum that up, what's your call on the u.s. equity markets? >> well, the market is going higher, we're looking the a 2150 target by year end, basically earnings up 5%. there are two areas of great confidence with that, one, the model is giving a 96% vulnerability with a higher market. and then at the look at future
strip on buying deals versus it, those are the things driving the views not everything will be perfect. >> does that mean that stocks are cheap? >> i don't like the term cheap or expensive. the levkovich foundation isn't big enough to force the market to agree with me, as a result, the concept of cheap isn't something that you should be running. you should be running statistical analysis. cheap markets can be done much cheaper and expensive markets can be done much more expensive. >> tobias, thank you for joining us. that does it for "worldwide exchange" today, coming up on "squawk box," former u.s. secretary larry summers, one not to miss. that's it. thank you very much.
millions of people along the east coast are still digging out. thousands of flights cancelled and the government is taking another snow day. at twitter, a ceo shake-up, jack dorsey making a couple of big moves. but will it be enough to revive the company's slumping stock? and super bowl 50 is set. the broncos versus the panthers. the old gentleman versus superman. get your ticks now. it's monday, january 25th, 2016. "squawk box" begins right now. >> announcer: live from new york
where business never sleeps this is "squawk box." good morning, everyone. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernin and andrew ross sorkin. and we all made it back from the snowy mountains of davos, switzerland, to some of the snowy streets of new york and new jersey. airports in new york, philadelphia and baltimore resuming limited on sunday, after the storm, some areas 3 feet of snow. close to 15,000 flights were cancelled as the major airlines plan to resume service throughout the region today. the nation's capital shut down. the storm also claimed the lives of 29 people. people killed by carbon monoxide poisoning, killed by heart attacks after shoveling and accidents on the roads. new jersey shores