tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC January 26, 2016 12:00pm-1:01pm EST
he always was a classy guy. >> you'll be watching apple as will i this afternoon. that's it for squawk alley today. let's send it over to fast money and the halftime report. >> let's meet our starting line-up for today. our game plan looks like this. bottoms up. so far so good for joe's call on crude. we are going to trade the most important market metric and pick some stocks that will pop. our call focused on a retailer as a well-known analyst doubles down on that stock. it was once america's most loved stock and has suddenly buck one of the more controversial. shares are down 20% over the last six months as questions
continue to linger over iphone sales and whether this company's best days are behind it whavm. what's going to happen today. >> a lot of us were talking about this a week or so ago when the stock is trading $94 a share i think. here it is 101 yesterday and trading around 100 today. what you wonder about is was a lot of this already priced in. a lot of us agreed a lot of this is probably already priced in so are we expecting them to have a blowout quarter? absolutely not. are they going to probably reach some of the numbers that people expect on the street? yes. and they might exceed some of the iphone numbers if what some of the reports are true about india, some of the pricing may be over in india. that could be a bit of a trigger that does raise the numbers a little bit higher. >> i asked this question yesterday and you were not able to make it here. next 15 points in this stock up or down. >> up. >> so right at $100 now. you'd be a buyer here. >> well, i own it and the only thing that i would change about
anything around these earnings would be to go in there with some options. the only thing discouraging today was 2 to 1 puts to calls. they were more aggressively attacking the down side and the stock went negative for a period of time. they were coming after the stock in that regard. will that continue for the rest of the trading session? the final hour will tell us everything. >> you covered your underweight. feeling more positive about what's happening? or are you just -- don't think it could fall much further? >> well it's down 25% from the high. so expectations are very low and i think that not only are they low for this quarter but also for guidance, my big point tonight what i'm listening for is the gross margin guidance for the march quarter but then i think it sets up very nicely and i think you can buy it into june and the second half of the year. you're really buying it for the iphone 7 so that's one of the reasons. you also have to remember in april of this year, in april the last couple of years they have done cash events. they have announced various different distributions so you want to be in it for that as
well. i covered my underweight and looked to go long if we get a pull back. >> let's get right to the new york stock exchange to set the stage for us, john. >> a couple of things. >> that's exciting music. a couple of things to watch, scott. let that play out. i feel like an important guy. beyond just the iphone units and revenue which tim cook has already told us to expect to be higher. i think inventory is a thing to watch. last holiday season we had 46% growth. nobody expects that again but if they do grow the iphone units and revenue, what happens to inventory at the same time? did they exit the quarter within their target 5 to 7 weeks of inventory forward looking? also china is a thing to watch. all of the projections growth wise going into the next quarter are going to hinge on chinese demand.
apple is just about to open up their 33rd retail store in china. that is an advantage that none of the competition has got that they actually have feet on the street in their growth market. that makes them more friendly and allows them to make a sale. it allows them to have a convenient story around their echo system or products in a different way. tim cook was talking about ipad sales being higher there. that has something to do with that. it's key that last quarter tim cook said if he had turned off the news and just watched what was happening in his retail stores he wouldn't have known that there was any economic issue growth wise in china at all. is he going to repeat that same kind of bullishness or has that taken on a different nuisance. that's such a big growth market. iphones grew by 100%. they actually doubled. that's a high bar to clear. what is he going to say this time around? so inventories and china, definitely things to watch.
beyond the numbers. even beyond gross margins in this report. >> john, thanks. joe maybe sentiment is too negative. >> we'll see. i think stephanie points out the guidance as being the key and i think it totally is. i think they're going to come in very conservative on the march quarters guidance. probably somewhere i saw a goldman sack's note somewhere 53, 55. they're going to have to obviously, that's below expectations. they're going to have to exceed that. how do you exceed that in the march quarter? . this is the trough period. i said all along this is about the march quarter. it's about the guidance going forward. the last thing i'd add is do they get creative? is it back to the conversation around financial engineers. do we increase the buy back? that could happen given the pull back and the price of the stock. they have to like it here. >> do you buy it? >> i buy it and i own it. i'm not just going to add to the comments about the iphone or anything they might do with share repurchases. other areas can move the stock here. the car initiative, watch, any
of these things which get not a lot of play in the media could help move the stock if there's any growth in that. >> apple is up 2%. 65% of the time one week after reporting earnings. maybe your best bet is to look for something positive but given where sentiment is, what the stock has done, it's been an underperformer. year to date down 6%. three months down 14. six months down 20. one year down 12. >> there's no doubt about it. unfortunately we have watched this stock just as tim cook was the comments we just heard -- tim cook was commenting about how things don't look as bad if he turned off his television set. i would say that's true. you look at the max sales. you were talking about the auto and the different pieces. maybe the home. but when you look at the mac that was something everybody thought was going to rollover. that's not rolling over. they still have that and seems to be getting a little bit stronger with each and every quarter. when will they come out with the 7 exactly? that's what we're waiting on.
>> now the point is if apple delivers a solid number does it change the overall sentiment in the market. let's find out from one of the biggest bulls. he does have a 2300 price target on the s&p 500. john, welcome back. >> thanks a lot scott. good to be here. >> how much do you think apple matters to the overall market view right now? >> it certainly matters today in terms of sentiment and i couldn't help but think as i listen to you all speak about it leading up to it, today we have apple and tomorrow we have the fed. what a week, huh any think the big thing with apple is this is its pattern. after it does great things, surprises to the upside, sells off, everybody buries the stock. it's not going to happen again and then you lead up to fourth quarter reporting season. you get some trend from them and you begin to move higher from
them. and the thing i really love is its the one company that marries technology to human customer service and that's some edge. it allows them to charge that people yum for a very high quality product. >> given the trade thus far this year, john, are you waivering at all? 2300 on the s&p. it sounds aggressive in the current environment we're in. >> it most certainly sounds aggressive based on the 12% pull back from last may's high on the s&p 500: that said, the decline that we have seen is really equities trading on technicals and equities trading at reflecting the commodities market and the fx market. both of which generally trade on feel and not on fundamentals. so i have to think we really still have a chance to see some spectacular action. in terms of my target we may need to revisit it. we stay loose on that. >> let me push back on you
though about the idea that the market is trading more on technicals than fundamentals and i'm quoting from a note today out from jp morgan from a gentleman that's been on this show numerous times. he points out rising risk of earnings recession. die verging central bank policy. manufacturing sector already in recession. deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop. those are all fundamental parts. >> my favorite was late cycle dynamics. i have been hearing late cycle dynamics since 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013. things are distorted because we had qe for years. now we're beginning to get a economic landscape beginning to form once again. we're in the early days and we have central banks around the world remaining incredibly cooperative. we have good housing numbers. we have good wages. they're modestly beginning to improve. we have jobs marketedly improved. we have automobiles.
all in all we have the current environment, just over 2%. >> john. i need you to hold your thought for a minute. i have breaking news with sue herrera. >> thank you, scott. right now we're following a developing story in san diego. specifically at the san diego naval medical center. you're looking at live pictures from our nbc affiliate knsd in san diego. those are from chopper 7. there's reports of shots being fired at that naval medical center. specifically on the web page for that medical center they cite building 26. the california highway patrol confirms that they do have facilities at that particular naval base. knsd is reporting that the naval base has been put on lock down out of an abundance of caution.
there's no confirmed cisightingf a shooter but shots were reported fires specifically in building 26. this is sandwiched in between this facility sandwiched in between the i-5 and a couple of other different freeways. you can see the police presence there. a relatively large police presence. we have been watching the on air feed for sometime now but there are reports of shots fired at this naval medical center in san diego. they're looking into that at this point. no one has seen a shooter. they're inspecting the building room by room and we will continue to follow what is a developing story. that particular facility has been put on lock down and the naval base has been put on lock down as well. scott, we'll continue to monitor it. >> i know you will. i know you'll bring us updates as well. sue herrera. thank you for that. our thanks to john for joining us today. we'll have him back sometime soon to continue that situation.
coming up, coach is back in vogue after reporting sales growth for the first time in ten quarters. why one analyst is convinced that company's turn around plan is working. plus amazon and netflix on a shopping spree at sun dance. both were down today and why is china picking a fight with george soros? we're making sense of the message the chinese are sending to the billionaire investor. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide.
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>> the dow having the best day since december 4th. a gain of 1.25%. the s&p is higher by 1.5%. nasdaq having a good day. wti is at 31.77. there you go. it up 5%. you can see it on the bottom right hand corner of your screen. what about the comments guys? 2300. it's a little aggressive. this notion that the market is trading more on technicals than fundamental issues is not well found. >> well it has been trading for
sometime. >> trading on the fear of fundamentals is it not? >> well -- >> it's being pushed around by technicals here and there. >> but in the last year in 2015 it was a lot of technicals going on but having said that i want to come back to the 2300 target. there's a lot of stocks out there and big stocks that are well off more than 20% and could easily rise 20%. >> give me ideas of which ones. >> we're talking about apple. do we think it would be outlandish for apple to be at 120 or citigroup at 38. gm at 36. >> all good points. is he wrong? >> if oil can stabilize we can focus on earnings. earnings today, several of the industrial companies these are real companies and people are really nervous about their exposure to energy and the
global macro and all of these stocks are rallying 3, 4, 5% today. >> last i looked 3m was up 5. dupont was up one and j and j was up three. >> if oil can stabilize. >> i wasn't sure if it was oil running the market or the earnings but if oil stabilizes then we can focus on the earnings and focus on where the numbers are going and we can get back to a fundamental discussion. >> joe. >> it gets boring to cite it but since the beginning of january this is what we have been talking about. being patient. waiting feor earnings to come around. all of these conditions are beginning to happen. tomorrow you have the federal reserve. do they use the bully pulpit to suggest that maybe four hikes are not warranted. >> i don't know. they still leave that door open and take the wind out of the sails here? >> earnings have been good. you have conditions finally in place where for the first time in 2016 you've got some tail winds. you're coming into a strong buy
back period. if there's going to be a tradeable recovery for the s&p and the market now's the time. >> what about this notion of growth versus value. i looked earlier. maybe some have sense turned around in the last 20 or 30 minutes since i checked. almost every fang stock was lower today. google turned positive but this idea of growth versus value. is the fang and the momentum the growth trade dead for the time being because people have moved money from those stocks into other areas that have been destroyed? >> i think it's too early to tell because we haven't had earnings from the fang yet and they might be quite good. the expectations are quite high and for these industries and energy and technology they're quite low so i think it's -- i mean, i'm leaning more toward value over growth but i think it's too early to say it's one or the other. >> why can't you just have both? and when we talk about some of these names. >> that would be the best of both worlds for a stock market that had ridiculously bad breath. >> some of these names that we talk about all the time, we're
talking about growth as well as fundamentals. when you look at some of the names look at an apple, look at a google, i know it's alphabet, you look at these names and you start to see you look at the valuation. they check that box and they have growth check that box. facebook is a different story because it's still a young enough company that we can look at facebook and say you know what, their growth is so extraordinary and that's one of those i'm looking at under 100. that's one of the names. last week disney and this week facebook where earnings does make a difference for this company. >> what about our call of the day? piper jeffrey reiterating it's overweight on the stock. they had strong earnings. tell me the story you have been trying to tell people the story for awhile. >> it's been going on for a couple of years now. it's the first quarter where we're seeing traction. but comps down was better than expected and they're on track for the next quarter. that is huge. we have been waiting for two
years. clearly this gives confidence now. i don't think it's all so easy. the stock was down 6% yesterday so just to rally up today it's a nice rally. do i think there's momentum there and it's very underowned and a depressed stock and it's in a category that's washed out. >> it's not as depressed as some of its peers. >> that's for sure. >> it's up 8 over the last six months. that being 8%, it's down 4.5. tiffany is down 33.5. >> tiffany is a different animal because you have the tourism and that's a really big problem for tiffany. >> people have thought about it being a turn around story or restructuring story and taking a long time to show some results and we're starting to see it. >> don't miss an exclusive interview. closing bell today at 3:30 p.m. eastern time. look forward to that. want to stick with retail and shares of lululemon popping as lone pine capital reports a 5%
stake in that company. pete has been keeping an eye on this stock. here's what he said. >> take a look at howell lululemon has been trading. i had some calls going into this thing but i'm thinking about whether or not i should get back into it. >> what's your answer now? >> i want to get back into it and i like the fact that it's there. that's icing on the cake. this goes back to the under armour call when we were talking about are they losing market share? if they're losing market share i don't think under armour is losing it to nike. in the women's division it's going far more toward lulu. the stock is pushing toward 60 now. there's no reason i shouldn't be in this stock which means by the end of the day i'll probably have an option position in it. >> i own it. i like it. it's a restructuring story too and that's what i like in retail. i like where margins are depressed and have room to go upside and i think that's the story with lulu for this particular year. >> joe. >> retail is about momentum and once momentum is lost in a
particular stock and it finally comes back again it is sustainable and long lasting. you look at lululemon and coach this is two names that two years ago none of us including myself would have suggested to buy. now the opportunity presents itself. it has the momentum here and now and it's going to be there throughout the year. >> margins is going to be the key and they actually prove they're going to be able to raise the margins higher. >> coming up, energy stock picks. the companies our experts are starting to love in a sector so hated for the last year. plus she called the rebound in mcdonald's back at $90. there she is. >> sorry. >> stand up and be noticed. now stephanie sees a buying opportunity in another beaten down household name. she's going to reveal that trade as well. about seizing opportunity. so i'm going to take this opportunity to go off script. so if i wanna go to jersey and check out shotsy tuccerelli's portfolio, what's it to you? or i'm a scottish mason whose assets are made of stone like me heart. papa! you're no son of mine!
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>> done mean i would buy it just yet. >> you're paying the options here. >> still playing on the down side as well. >> you look at the stock today. been under 4. been back up to where it is again. a lot of folks are jostling around. the shorts are trying to reposition once again. >> tell me what's going on with sprint. yesterday and today two different stories in stock movement. >> it's up 20% today because they announced earnings and looks like it will be better than people expected and momentum counts in stock and retail as well. they're the number four carriers and consumers don't want to do business with the number four carrier. they want to go with number one or number two which is verizon wireless or at&t. it's going to be a troubled stock for sometime. >> restructuring plan. long awaited. >> capital return announcement over the next two years as well. this management is certainly getting religion in term of
trying to refocus on the shareholders. it's very attractive. >> everybody is taking the price target down. you have a new executive appointment and several departures. >> more than several. this is an incredible number of guys leaving this company. the shifting that's going on there but still you have dor se. a lot of the core areas still covered. they have enough initiatives out in front of themselves and they're innovative enough. >> coming up joe stuck his neck out on energy last week. >> there is a tradeable rebound about to occur in the marketplace. >> okay. is he sticking with it? we're going to get a trade update coming up. plus china is keeping an eye on you george soros. we're digging into that country's very public warning to that very famous investor. thanks for doing this, dad.
run security checkpoint in the city of homs killed at least 20 people. isis claiming responsibility for that attack that came as government forces retook a strategic town from the opposition in the south of the country. senator bernie sanders blocking president obama's nominee to head the food and drug administration citing his ties to drug companies. sanders also says that he was placing the hold because of the lack of commitment to lowering drug prices. an influential government panel says women should be screened for depression during pregnancy and after giving birth. it's the first time they recommended screening for maternal mental illness. >> and dangerous cliff erosion in california. very wet el nino weather prompting a state of emergency as city officials declared a third apartment building on the cliffs uninhabitable. >> whoa. >> i know. such a beautiful part of the world but really taking it's
toll on the coast. >> that's an amazing video. thank you. s&p 500 is back above 1900. nasdaq having a good day too. sectors led by energy with crude oil up 4.5% and moving on to the best performing sector today, a bullish call on oil when it was still trading below $30. here's what he said. >> i think the next 500 points for the dow are up. i think oil is going to rally above 30. there's a tradeable rebound about to occur in the marketplace. >> oil is near 32. s&p is near 3%. what do you think now. >> and it was the high the other night in the middle of the night it goes back to last wednesday's
expiration. concurrent with that you saw a counter at the desk. that came by your desk at 10:15 in the morning. >> i think what you do with it -- >> you did say that oil is bottoming today. >> there's energy names that i think you can go out there and own and those names will be the winners whether it's a pxd and eog cxo. you can buy big oil and look at exxon mobil and that works in this environment. where do i see it going? this run short-term tradeable bounce can take you mid 35s. it's going to take the s&p up with it. the energy equity names have been used as a resource to hedge against longs in high yield energy debt. you have a lot of speculators
that sell energy equities. now all oil has to do is stabilize those shorts in energy equities have to be covered. so i think there's more to come. >> oil will come back down. >> do you agree with him or not? >> i do not agree with him. >> you disagree with him. >> i never used the word -- >> so tell me why. >> look i want -- >> because as soon as oil prices go up you're going to see supply coming back on. in the shale production area first and it's going to be volume metric. it's going to put prices back down. having said that i want to be in names agnostic to the price of oil. the pipelines i like are kinder morgan. both have been slaughtered. the refiners faired better. i like marathon petroleum here.
>> some people are pointing out lmg imports in china and japan are down sharply and will continue to do that. doesn't that hurt the story. >> those pipelines that i mentioned are far more on crude oil than they are on natural gas. >> i've heard from you guys. do you like anything here? >> best in breed because i think all the stocks have gotten hammered and when you can get the number one player in the industry like a chevron, emg, oxy, i'll take that any day. preferably to blend it with a good balance sheet so that on days like yesterday, yesterday the market was down and it hurt so at least you get some protection on the down days but you want to have enough in that portfolio. >> crudes at the high of the day right now up nearly 6%. pete, do you have any trades for us. >> jimmy brought it up as well. it's one of the names i'm in right now and the reason i like
that is they have already done everything painful that they have to do. that's why the stock went much further than it is right now. but they took out that little dividend by 70%. that was really saying something. we're going to make this thing work and now they're starting to show that and as you watch the stock to move now above 15. i think you're right. some of the pipeline names, the ones that adjusted the way they need to, those can be winners. >> natural gas plays along with energy. blend it together. south western up 18%. range resources up 9%. talking about this the last couple of days. the momentum is there. i like all three of the names. >> let's get a flash on the topper forming stock of 2015. topper forming stock of 2014 as well. >> a big performer here. i love the amount of civility and nice discourse that we have. >> he's a nice guy. >> he is a nice guy. >> all right. >> i'm taking the hint. >> i'm trying. >> the gloves are coming off.
>> and joe as well. so i want to point that out. let's get back to netflix. a topper former over the last couple of years. they're making a big play over at the sun dance film festival this year. amazon has already acquired four films. netflix has purchased three both buying more films than the traditional production companies. traditional media have so far this year. the sundance shopping spree doesn't seem to be helping amazon. both stocks trading lower here. netflix down by 2% and remember the interesting part about this. topper formers 2014, 2015, analysts still have a consensus price target that's 30% above where netflix trades. something has to give. back to you. >> thanks. >> are the analysts out of whack on netflix? has the story changed just simply from a sentiment standpoint. not the fundamentals but growth, value, bang versus everything else. >> well, look at netflix and stephanie you mentioned earlier that they have yet to report.
netflix has reported and it has not responded well. is from a high of 130 down to 96 or 97 now. that would indicate the bloom is off the rose. let's see what happens when the rest of them reports. >> i would have more focus on amazon and that's one of the names that i know the fundamentals are so hard to get our arms around this but when you look at it as a cloud company and all the different areas that seem to be doing so well. i think this stock is going higher. >> how about this next one, china giving a smack down to one of the richest people in the world. george soros. michelle joins us next with those details. we're staying on top of the earnings you need to prepare for this week. there you go. board is full. starting with apple after the bell. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide.
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peaked. big outflows in high yield funds last year. credit risk a big issue in 2016. the jnk will tell us what sectors are at risk and we're live at morning star's fund manager of the year awards. we'll speak with four of the best money managers in domestic international fixed income and alternative categories. big two hour of power straight ahead. back over to you. >> look forward to that. see you in about 15. here's a story you don't see every day. china warning billionaire investor george soros to back off. not to bet against it's currency. michelle has the details. this has a lot of people talking today. i love this story. >> pretty incredible. >> george soros was at davos last week and he said he's betting against the asian currencies. he's not specific as to which ones but it's very clear that the chinese government took it very personally because here is the front page of the people's daily. it's a big newspaper. this is the international addition. can we bring it up please? so the international addition of
the people's daily, on the lower lefthand side, lower lefthand corner, there's a front page -- >> pete can you read that? >> i can't quite make that out, michelle. written by a researcher in one of the ministries that says, the headline is hysterical. it says bet against china -- declaring war on china's currency? ha ha. and then he goes on and specifically addresses george soros and says very specifically if you bet against the chinese currency you're going to lose here. we can bring up the full quote. we have it. just waiting for it. any second now. soros's war on the renminbi and the hong kong dollar cannot possibly succeed. about this there can be no doubt. >> a government calling out a big trader. we have to remember that george soros broke the bank of england. very famous for that trade back when. that may be why they're concerned.
>> maybe. >> but it looks like an amateur move doesn't it? >> what can they do about it? >> they could do a lot: there's two things to do with speculators. you use money or capital controls. they got plenty of both. we don't know that they have the competency to use them and thus far they have not demonstrated a lot of competency on that front. they got a little bit of advice from somebody that knew what they were doing. everybody will complain. the imf will complain. everybody will be mad. >> you'll be hearing more about this possibility for the last 48 hours at least. capital controls. >> yes. >> they may not have a choice. >> capital leaving china as a result of what they have been doing with the yuan and the current economic situation. >> chinese people want to get their money out and they're doing everything they can to do so. >> they can do it i think 50,000 a year starting on the beginning of the year and that's why it seems to have accelerated as of january 1st. >> the other thing they do is they say i'm going to buy 200,000 widgets from germany but
actually they'll by 100,000 but they send $200,000 worth of money and they sneak money out. >> getting their way around that for awhile. anyone has reaction of this. >> i'll be generous and say they're on a learning curve but they have been making so many amateurish moves like this. if it's the circuit breakers in the stock market and the foreign exchange announcements that has the head of imf calling them out on it that after awhile so many of these amateur moves will be looked at as less and less relevant so when they actually do something like impose currency controls. it will have less of an impact because people are getting used to the keystone cops mentally over there. >> there's less of an impact because george soros' ability to bet is limited. it's not like the pound was. don't have the market like he did there. >> exactly. >> good points. >> thanks. >> interesting stuff.
>> coming up, where stephanie see ace buying opportunity you may be missing today. she'll reveal that next. plus treasuries having the best month in a year. the fed kicking off it's two day policy meeting. we'll head to the trade ahead of janet yellen's statement tomorrow. we're back right after this. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪
yield support. i like the story long-term. >> stocks up 25% since then. now there's another name that's caught stephanie link's eye. portfolio manager is buying what? >> procter & gamble. >> they like to be reminded of that. >> they to. thank you for that. very happy about it. procter & gamble, the stock has had a little bit of a recovery from its low but it's still down from $93 in 2014. and i think that the new ceo very much like mcdonald's where the stock lagged and they had a new ceo come in and there's a lot done in mcdonald's. and the portfolio so the quarter today basically in line. a little bit better on the gross margin side but they set the barlow for 2016. mainly because of currency. >> i was going to ask you what about currency. >> that's a problem but they set the barlow. number one. the interesting thing to me is they have gross margin opportunity. i think to the tune of 200 to
400 basis points of upside this year so if volumes can gradually improve and organic growth today was the positive surprise. you get margin and you get operating leverage. it's a pretty underowned i like this quality name. >> steph, you have been seeing estimates on the name coming down. do you think this quarter report turns that around and people start raising estimates? >> i think the numbers are going to come down because the bar was set low for the full year. i think a lot of that is current see, venezuela. now that news is actually in it. and i think what is important to me is their core organic growth was better than expected this quarter and they haven't repositioned the portfolio. the ceo is just barely in the involvement i think there is a lot he can do. >> the stock looks great on a technical basis. bottomed out in september, up $10. despite baes what's going on with the u.s. dollar. looks fantastic technically combine with it what she is saying fundamentally.
>> the chart looks like mcdonald's a year and a half ago. >> when you are talking about china, that feeds well. they haven't penetrated there yet. that's a huge opportunity. >> all right. we'll see what happens with currencies tomorrow with of course if fed's statement and we're going to see what happens with treasuries. jackie deang list is with the futures now crew looking ahead to that. >> reporter: taking a look at treasuri treasuries, they are tracking for their best month in about a year. brian, you are, looking at the correlation between the treasury market and the vix. what are you seeing? >> certainly when you look at the vix, the last three, six months, year to date, huge spike in volatility. that got people nervous owning stocks. so the flight to trade is going on. that flow has got to go somewhere. i think the vix gets back in the teens and it's the risk back on factor and people feel good about owning stocks, i think in treasury they are going to find
a bid any time there is a sellout in the threes remarket. >> jim, do you think flight to safety is going to continue? >> i think this whole move has been because the stock market was pummelled the last couple of weeks. last week we dipped below the august lows and rejected. now we are bag in the middle of the range. i think yields could go back up to the 210, 2015 level as the stock market stays within the range. inthen paic is over a little bit for the time being in the treasury market. >> gentlemen, we'll discuss it more on the live show. we're also going to be talking oil. we've got a little bit of a rally on our hand. helima kroft will join us and tell us why there could be more pain ahead for oil. coming up, pete najarian has his eye on three stocks under pressure today. the options market telling a different story plus a look ahead to tonight's earnings report, led by apple. here at td ameri >> announcer: futures now is
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desk you can down on something unusual happening. today he is bringing three stocks where the options market is telling a different story than the stocks themselves. >> right. >> this is where the options activity is consistently -- that's the key, consistently telling a bullish story. >> right. and john might have been talking about this last week. viacom is one of those name. by the way it was hitting again today. this is one of those names that have been consistent. viab. they have been coming after options in here quite some time now. we've had three hits just in the last two and a half weeks. a lot of aguessing buying there. another one for you as well, a name we never talk about on the desk. men's warehouse. really, really active option activity in there as well. coming after and looking for even more upside there. mostly february options. >> i think we brought it up when joseph abboud was here grading your outfit.
>> and i was wearing one of his ties. >> along with the others. no wonder you forgot about the appearance. i don't think his critique was all that good. >> southwest energy is one that joe just brought up a little while ago. it's one of those names. i'm not a big fan of the energy space but a i don't believe the way joe is that we've hit a bottom. shoot, last night we are trading $29 again. i think we are in the middle space. ovx in the mid 60s. when they continue to call the onside calls in there, i have to be involved. >> programming note. bank of america's head of equity strategy is going to be here with us tomorrow for the hour. it is her first cnbc interview of the year, we're going to get her view on the market how she thinks things are going to go. her call last year was spot on. looking forward to that. final trades on apple and the apple ecosystem. >> ecosystem. sorry. i rubbed off on you. >> say it again it will be an
echo system. >> not only that, the earnings calendar is full for the next week. the ecosystem for apple, forget apple. tell me about the ecosystem. >> the apple ecosystem, i think there is a lot of derivative plays here. first the bar is set low, so they are going to clear it. qualcomm, which by the way also reports after the close tomorrow. i'm very interested in that. >> corps voe is one you added to your portfolio here. >> just yesterday. >> specifically because i think the bar is set so low in apple that it's easy for them to clear and vor cowill be a soiled spring when that happens. >> ecosystem, joe? >> let's talk about apple, and you mentioned before apple gets you to $120. i think facebook goes to $120 but i think apple does. facebook is 97ish. they report tomorrow night. year on year, 36%. quarter on quarter, 15 to 20%.
i think facebook hits that 120 mark before apple. >> we haven't talked about it much, the expectations. do you own it? >> facebook? >> yeah. >> i'm market late. i wimped out than to one because it has had a nice run. it's not cheap. google is where i feel thek there is a lot they can do with the new ceo. apple and ahaving ao, the stock is down 16%, been hammered. 20% exposure to apple. broad come synergies, i think those have upside. if the iphone 7 is going to be as big as i think, they are going to have a lot of content on iphone 7. that's why i like it. >> sirius logic, those are names closely tied. chip names are involved. if you want to be an apple, be an apple, don't go to the ecosystem. >> disney, the sell off underneath $100.
that was a pitch i still think it is. i think it's going to break back over $100. facebook, i think it goes to $120. >> plus 280, best day for the dow jones since december. >> that does it for us. "power lunch" begins now. oil takette away and oil givette. the dow is higher by nearly 300 points, oil's 5% rebound one big reason why. every single dow stock is higher. hello everybody. and welcome to "power lunch" where it is not just all about oil today. lots more, including the federal reserve and why apparently tonight is a very important one for apple. and melissa lee back from her vacation. >> jaunt to florida, back here in englewood cliffs a. nice rally today. we are watching the biotechs. that ion