tv Fast Money CNBC January 29, 2016 5:00pm-5:31pm EST
>> the whole team would be wiped out if there was something wrong in this region. rest up this weekend, guys. thanks so much. that does it for us on clegg. "fast money" begins in moments. melissa lee. what's on tap? >> we've got ultimate, ultimate game of would you rather take your position going tonight so we're going to talk about the earnings coming out next week, yahoo! versus google and buffalo wild wings versus chipotle and bp versus exxon. "fast money" starts right now. i'm melissa lee. traders are tim seymour, brian kelly, tim nathan and guy adami. tempted to buy stocks after today? well, maybe you should just hold on for a minute because a historical anomaly is pointing to more pain ahead for stocks and what that is and how you can still make money. one stock that's ground zero for global growth connection and it's flashing a serious warning sign. we've got that name and how you can profit. later, virtual reality is growing like crazy and it could
lead to real profits. we've got the four stocks that could dominate the space in the years to come. first we start off with the free money rally. stocks having their best day since september 5th after japan became the latest country to fire off another round of stimulus. the dow surging nearly 400 points, the s&p 500 now out of correction territory after the worst start to a january since 2008. is it safe to buy stocks once again? let's start off with the biggest bear on this desk and that obviously >> who could that be? >> b.k., who called to go all cash. >> and i stand by that call. even though we had a rally today, that doesn't really matter to me. i think the markets got it wrong here. here's what you have to look at. this is all about a dollar rally. if we look back what has hurt the market and what has hurt every single company is the dollar. it's a global wrecking ball, and what the bank of japan did last night is just add fuel to that wrecking ball, so until we stop that, and, unfortunately, what my fear is, when we've seen this in the past. we've seen it only end in crisis so you saw it in 1925 and 1928,
1985 and it ended in the plaza accord and even the european debt crisis. really that ended in a crisis. same type of thing. the united states, the federal reserve needs to loosen monetary policy. i'm not a big fan of it but that's what they have to do. that's what they have to do. >> what happened this week. it's a parlay from last week when the ecb and the bank of japan this week. >> that's not a good thing. a strong dollar is a bad thing in this environment. >> you've been fighting central banks for the last five years you're broke an ultimately the backstop that's the put -- >> it's not a backstop. it's over. >> it has been. >> it's a strong dollar, it is. >> it's not over. look what happened this week. >> look what happened when general devalueled by 2% to 3%, the market cratered. >> brian, brian, stocks are up 5% straight off the lows when people were panicking and jumping out windows. the reality is the central banks that acted this woke and last week are the same central banks that have been here the whole time that haven't changed policy
yet. the fed also met this week, in a place where they basically indicated they can do anything in march and are probably doing nothing. we're in a place here where i don't see how anything has happened this week that's any different than what you could have done going into this week and yet markets are significantly higher. >> going into this week any of us would have pressed the weakness in the stock market because we were down so much and such a straight period of time. coming off a very oversold condition. >> a lot of people were selling stuff and saying sell and saying get out of way and the s&p is going to 1810. >> i think -- i still think it's going there. >> do you buy this rally then, is that the bottom line for you, you believe this? >> i was never saying go sell anything. i'm not saying go buy it. i say stocks have structural problems and the gdp numbers weren't great. nothing's changed. >> so you guys agree with each other. >> no, we do. >> you both agree nothing's changed but your extrapolation of that is different. that's what it sounds like. >> can i put two cents in here. i mean, to me we were coming off
a very oversold condition. the playbook has been into a fed meeting you don't sell, it right, because we've rallied out of notoriously out of most fed meetings over the last few years so to me -- >> actually we didn't. after december the market went into a tailspin. >> after december they raise rates for the first time in nine years. >> you said after fed meet. >> over the last few years. if the playbook was don't fight the fed and you bought the fed meeting meaning you knew what you would get and the fact of the matter is the fed was screwed because if they said they were going to go in march. >> they can't go in march. >> if they dialed it back too much, the market would have tanked. >> damned if you do and don't. >> if you knew that why were you so scared coming into this week? >> i've been covering shorts for a week and i'm not pressing things right here. i don't know what you're saying because i think you're turning things around a little bit. b.k. has a longer term view about fed policy and central bank policy right now and they are pushing on a stream. that's a fact. you think our economy growing
2.5% for the last two years is going to do well in a negative interest rate environment, do you think that's going to happen? do you think stocks will retook the that? >> things were oversold. freaking out at the bottom. >> that's what people do, and they freak out at the tops too, man. >> who is calling this a top and who is saying buy? ultimately if you thought this was such a great place to get out of way of central bank poll circumstance the same three central banks doing the same thing all over again this week. >> the federal reserve is tightening policy. that's what's different about this. the federal reserve is tightening poll. >> i maybe they are, maybe they aren't. >> they did. there's no question they did. >> i don't think people are -- people have been freaking out. >> people have been freaking out for the last two weeks, guy. >> i haven't said a word tim in four minutes. all i was saying is people have not been freak out. they have been talking about this the entire way down. brian has been saying this can happen. if he continually said this towards end he also said he was covering a lot of his stuff which you say laughed week i believe. that's what we talked b.1820 we
flagged a number of times. it happened the tuesday after whatever holiday, martin luther king day. bounced off that. we said when it close the at 1857, very good chance we say 1920. overshot today. what do you do? to tim's point. fighting central banks has been a fool's errand, something i've tried to do a number of times unsuccessfully. i do think it's different this time because now everybody seems to be at a ratcheted sense, heightened sense of awareness about what's going on. i think china is next. you probably hear from them next week. gives our fed air cover to do nothing all next year. is that good or bad? i don't know, if you brian's point a stronger dollar has not been beneficial to stocks. >> good argument here, good discussion. what are you doing? what are you doing based on this? >> today i threw out more iwm puts. my final trade, sell eem at 31 because ultimately emerging markets have major structural
problems. no one is saying the world's a great place, great companies reporting aat love good things can continue to happen in an environment where the government is stuck and the boj, nobody expected them to go to nirp, negative interest rate policy. i think today was a business mistake by the bank of japan but if you're telling me markets are broken and we're going straight down and guys like gundlach, everybody piling on. we all know that the u.s. economy and manufacturing is in a recession, that that leads gdp. tell me what i don't know. get to a place where you've got a place and you can pick good stocks and you can be constructive and you cannot freak out on the days when the vix is spiking up 20% because that's what's been happening for the last three sgleeks you, what were you doing, what are you doing? >> i didn't do anything today but in this environment you want to buy anything with a yield and to me tlt is probably the easiest way to do it. when you look around the world and see negative interest rates. >> that still works.
>> still getting 2% plus capital appreciation. >> been a good trade. >> regular viewers will know that my trade for january where i've been putting money is in things like verizon, okay, stuff with yields. >> yields. >> to your point, and there's good fundamental news and then the stock was also the beneficiary of people searching for yield. the thing has gone from 44 to 49 in a straight line. i took it off today, okay. i had calls against it. i didn't make the whole thing but i think you have to trade some of the moves because stocks like verizon when they go up 10% in a straight line. doesn't happen a whole heck of a lot. xlu utilities, i've been in there, took that off. had a nice run. i do expect equities will rallies and you'll get to the 1950 early and maybe they get to the 50-day moving average at 2,000 and i think you lay them out there. if you're looking for an opportunity to reduce risk at 2000 that's where you do it. >> sorry, dan. gold should have gotten schmizleed. performed well over the last two, two and a half weeks. a lot of people have been
fighting against it. gdx up 2.5%, 2.25% today. something is amis. brian is right with tlt and i think gdx, something is going on with the gold miners to the upside. >> up next, sticky task for the market looms. a slew of big earnings, names that will matter the most for the rally and virtual reality, real profits. the four stocks to bet on as the virtual trend takes off. the names might surprise you. and later the one stock that's ground zero for the global slowdown, that's reporting next week and shot waves to the market. we'll tell you what that is when "fast money" returns. i think it landed last tuesday.
welcome back to f-fun. a slew of big earnings movers next week so we thought we'd do a little would you rather. >> love this game. >> would you rather version of take your position. >> oh. >> up first, alphabet which reports on monday and yahoo! which reports on tuesday. would you rather awful in a bet or yahoo! dan? >> you know, i'd rather yahoo! as a trade near tefrmt a lot of it has to do with the trade setup, really dealing with sentiment. i think the sentiment is so poor and that the ceo has been under a ton of pressure and, you know,
alibaba's performance this year has not helped yahoo! so something is going to happen here and i don't know when and i'm not expecting anything to happen in the call, but i think yahoo! probably sets up pretty decently in the low 30s and just about google. i just think there's risk in google. obviously they have the similar sort of result that facebook had and the stock is going to gap up and make new highs and if they don't then it's down 5%, 7% the way amazon was and there's less risk of a -- >> here's the conspiracy theory on google, that google will break out all of their pieces. >> the transparency part of it. >> like the balloons and all the crazy things in addition to the regular business and they wouldn't be doing that unless they knew it was going to be good this time around. >> a couple of quarters for google out fantastic and i don't think google is all that expensive. i hear dan on yahoo! and that's been grim death for the last six to nine months. the google report, given what facebook said is going to be
strong. i'm playing the game. make me play the game. would you rather take a position, goog. >> alphabet. >> i'm long yahoo! so it's really tough for me to argue with dan long the trade. even though i'm paid to be combative on this desk but when i look at going ill think you've got an opportunity for a stock to outperform and dan said it himself had a facebook-like quarter. not just because trends on facebook and video are in search. it's more than a one quarter event that we got last quarter and happening again. >> up next, tim's favorite fast food chain, he called it chipote, reports on tuesday and buffalo weld wings. would you rather buffalo weld wings or chipotle? >> both interesting stocks. i would rather chipotle. >> not just because of the fantastic pronunciation. on some level both of these companies had horrendous 2015s and carried a lot into the new
year. buffalo wild wings is a problem because this is a high multiple growth stock that suddenly isn't growing in the same way. they have been counteracting the growth by continuing out pricing power. the stock trading the sum multiple at cmg 40 times, the valuation is better. cmg, look, their problem is easier fix, believe it or not. it's been almost impossible for them to get out of that tainted food source issue but when it gets into it, the company to me was very, very expensive. trading up near 750, traded down to 450. you know what it did. ultimately a stock around 40 times. don't know what it needs to do. we know 2016 is a disaster but at roughly 17, 18 bucks by normalized 2017 and normalized isn't the same growth level and it's a 30 multiple, not a 40. i'd buy the stock. >> chipotle, we still don't know what is wrong with. it still don't know how to fix it or where it came from. it's been going on six months so you have a huge headline risk.
hear you on buffalo wild wings, would sell that as well but here i thinkite rather neither. >> would you rather bp or exxon? b.kareers, what do you see? >> we'll need yield in this environment, xom and it's probability same as dividend out there. not terribly excited about buying an oil stock at these prices but exxon mobile, a nice dividend. bp, chance on cutting the dividend is slim because of the political risk but i think it's out there, economically, fundamentally a bigger risk. >> rex tillerson will not cut exxon mobil. not even that high. that's actually somewhat reasonable against bp which is probably closer to 8%. do i have to play the game again. would you rather take a position? >> the game is to not play the same way brian played. >> i understand. i'll plate i want to play. i'll pick exxon mobil as well.
unless the stock goes up 30% from here which ain't happening, something will have to happen to that dividend. >> should we be concerned based on chevron's results today? >> i thought chevron acted pretty well considering how poor it was. obviously energy stocks again are very oversold and a lot of big integrated. taking some bad news on the chin pretty decently. they are in downtrends and still something fundamental shifts. production cut or demand pickup and i don't think you'll get that over the next few months. that's just a guess here. i think these stocks remain in downtrends and i think you probably look to reduce exposure on ralies. >> as we head to break. check out the dollar soaring on the bank of japan's actions today. seeing a 13-year high. the hot group of stocks that could still feel major pain from the dollar's reign. i'm melissa lee. you're watching f-fun on cnbc, first in business worldwide ♪ out there i'm here to say.
patrick boone likes chevrolet. >> that may be the care, pat, but gm shares are giving traders the jitters, and we'll tell you what it is that has them so concerned. plus, tim seymour is doing nothing he's never done before. >> after the break when we come back, thanks to virtual reality you're a hockey player. >> we'll explain just what the heck he means when "fast money" returns.
welcome back to "fast mon " money." the push into virtual reality is a major theme for big-cap tech players from 2016 from google to netflix and samsung and apple. all jumping on the vr bandwagon in a big way and american professional sports leagues are look nothing get in on the action. to find out more our very own tim seymour picked up a virtual stick with the new york rangers in advance of this weekend's nhl all-star game. >> i'm tim seymour here in the new york rangers locker room, a place that's usually players only but thanks to virtual reality you can see what it's like to lace up like the pros here at msg. check it out. ♪ big game tonight. welcome to the garden. could this be a place where
athletics and sports have changed by virtual reality? >> i think the likelihood of this being a training tool for everything in all sports, i definitely see it working in hockey, especially goalie. it's a fixed position. with what i experienced i felt like i was doing it again and that virtual reality feels real, then, yes, that's something that would be transferrable for any athlete. awesome. awesome. could have done a better job on that. >> that looked -- looks like you were breaking a sweat there. >> breaking a sweat and it's humbling to try to realize what nhl goalies go through. in fact, they have slowed down the speed of this thing. >> that wasn't even as fast. >> for everybody. steve vac yliquetvaliquette, ex
ranger, post-game knicks, a true gentleman and he's a true gentleman and this is truly the kind of thing that you can use to get your sharpness back if you've been laid off. whether they are doing that now but for fans at the garden, by the way, this truly is. had my glasses on, look up and sitting in my crease and seeing a couple of rangers skating down on me. >> crease. >> you're a huge hockey sglan go to ranger games all the time. >> sure. >> and a little known fact, i don't know if i can say this, your mom, mrs. lee, lives next to the king henrik lundqvist, very good favorite goaltender of the new york rangers, very good trade school on "fast money." >> no kidding. let's trade the virtual reality space, a pretty cool space. tim, since you experienced it. are you more sold on the idea of virtual reality as a money-maker? >> kind of like what's happened. when facebook talked about oculus, big deal. why do i care unless i'm a gamer? >> right.
>> but i get the applications not only for training and if you could really find the sports application but it truly was an enjoyable thing. to me samsung is the place i want to invest, not only because samsung has done a great job in the mass market of the tvs and did in the iphone so the technology will come out much more mainstream. the galaxy s-6 edge to me is 99 bucks to get in the game and use with existing samsung software so to me in early stages as they have done with every other hardware product they compete with, samsung is usually a cheaper version of the same quality. samsung will win this. >> b.k.ers? >> the thing being, you could be at home and be at the front row of the hockey game so there's so much that will go on. a huge area. what aim getting at? you want to only picks and shovels, for me it's nvidia, you need the graphic chip, very
graphic rich and nvidia this year has been on a rocket ride so you probably want to wait for it to pull back a bit but in the long run that's going to be your play. >> cool graphics. >> the vr thing and the stock pick. >> i'm not watching because it makes me nauseous. >> you did one. >> yeah. >> you're still recovering. >> here's the thing. probably a few years away from this, right, and to me b.k. makes a lot of sense. you want the nuts and the bolts of the machines they will be operating. the problem is there's very pure plays. you wouldn't buy facebook, right, because of vr. you wouldn't buy apple. tim cook was actually asked by an analyst about the vr strategy and to me it's kind of sony, right. they make the playstation and have a vr head set and if you want to go for a company that's publicly listed right now, a lot of them are not in vr it's probably sony because they are already there and they have a foothold. >> and i would say you buy facebook, not because of the virtual reality but i think by 2017 they will start to monetize this. this stuff makes me nauseous.
i did one in staten island. >> didn't you do a marriott? >> i was on the wall? what's that show, "lord of the rings" or "game of thrones." >> "lord of the rings." >> i'm not the target audience, i get it. >> oh, no, you're not. >> buying facebook at an all-time high two times the normal volume is not the best idea in the world but i think facebook wins this game. they will figure it out. they laughed at the what's the app thing and at the oculus and now they are laughing. >> yeah. >> don't laugh at me. >> final trade time. tim seymour. kind of laughing, in disbelief in the selective memory of this desk. what you want to do is trade this market and want to keep your head. eem, trade it short at 31. >> b.k.? >> there's one thing tim and i can agree that there will be volatility in this market and cme is the place to play. >> dan. >> >> stick around. "options actions, xlp, a lot of
(train wheels on tracks) it had no mouth, but it spoke to me. it said, "rocky mountaineer: all aboard amazing". that was fun. stocks have having their best day since september. will the rally last? we'll ask the guys behind me. take a look at what's coming up. >> don't touch it! >> that's what some traders are saying about one hot sector. we'll tell what you it is and how you can profit. plus one group of stocks stayed out of the rally today and it could get a lot worse next week and here's a hint. and -- >> a million dollars isn't cool. >> you know what's cool? >> $52