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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  February 1, 2016 4:00am-5:01am EST

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hi, everybody. good morning, it's monday. welcome to "street signs." i'm louisa bojesen. >> and i'm nancy hulgrave. these are your headlines. well, a start to february for european markets after the toughest january on record for stocks. >> tough being after the disappointing patent settlement which say weighs heavily. and chinese market with pmi with activity in the world's second largest economy hits a three-year low.
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the ceo of julius baer said 30% being kept in cash as exacerbating fears. >> in the last 12 months, we had a lot of volatility in the index. over time, the thing that was clear, how it was done. and i think everybody will be a bit surprised. >> billionaire invest george searos as they get ready to square off at the iowa caucus. good morning. and welcome to "street signs" here on a monday. well, markets are kicking off to pa territory. we want to get straight to breaking data coming out of the eurozone. that's manufacturing for the month of january has been confirmed at 52.3.
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that's december. january is 22.3. this comes after pretty strong adings across the board. and pmi down. you can see the euro dollar not doing much. >> basically, the eurozone manufacturing slower in 2016. they're cutting their prices at the steepest rate for a year. growth of new orders slowing maybe that's to be expected. >> to be expected. and think i number in that expected territory will be somewhat inspiring. >> yeah, it was to be expected as everything has gotten tuf a rocky start, right? >> right. >> and we also saw a rocky end to the year as well, right? >> that's right. >> it's monday. >> monday, we need a new 2 for the markets. >> let's check in on the markets heating up here in europe on
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trading. just a little higher. a couple points to the upside seen in europe. just glancing at the stocks, europe 600 briefly, you'll see for yourselves there. and showing you the main european equity markets, too. just mirroring what we're seeing. a relatively flattish start. the cac, the dax and ftse being among them. chinese territory closed after january activity shrinking at its fastest pace since 2012. let's talk more about that. sri jegarajah joins us. sri, good to see you, it's slightly downbeat again. >> yeah, it was. it didn't really tell us anything ground breakingly new here.
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it speaks towards consumer-led growth. rebalancing. so you have this divergence between legacy manufacturing and service providers. service providers are doing better. the big question is what the policy implications are here of slower manufacturing growth. and the contraction in the manufacturing sector that we've been seeing playing out. and there's probably going to be another rrr cut over the next month, or two. and atting 2.3% after the move in interest rates. the big question here is what happens with the banks because they are continuing to get slammed these did on friday. this is going to have an impact on their margins if they'll have to put those excess reserves into the central bank at a higher cost. ten basis points to be precise.
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broadway, negative. china, we've got more central banks meeting. reserve bank of australia and reserve bank of india as well. the big question is whether they strike a devilish tone. and so positive moves there. if they do so. back to you. >> sri, good to see you. slightly mixed session, asia. slightly mixed session here in europe as well. let's talk about bigger stories out there. police in china have arrested 21 employees now at the country's largest finance platform on the suspension of swindling $7.6 billion from investors in what could be the biggest fraud case in china's history. according to investigators, 92% offered by the company were fake. they air eed purported confessis
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from two former employees. china's funds have been increasingly popular trade. now with 80% in trade. this is according to "the wall street journal." billionaire trader stanley brokenmiller and hedge fund managers are also betting on the currency depreciated. louisa, we've heard over and over from officials saying there's nothing to suggest them going ahead, they want to keep it stable. when we're talking about payment capital there, i think over three years, they're talking about a 40% decline. you've got to wonder if there's any merit to that, whether or not the yuan moves. >> i wonder if it's back to trust. if we think that the chinese
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authorities are trying to stablize the yuan, and yet come through with the moves with instability in the yuan as well. by the policy changes, whether or not investors can trust to keep their money in positions that could have been linked like back in the old days but everything's changed. >> let's bring in the chinese equities prime minister at henderson global investors. charlie, pleasure to have you with us this morning. we were just talking about some of these big hedge fund managers in the united states taking short bets on the chinese long currency. do you think there's any merit behind this, and if so, could the currency equity be any threat coming out of china? >> yeah, i think it's probably the biggest macro indicated for china for 2016. essentially, i don't know these guys ever sleep, but i would imagine that's their way of expressing a negative view of
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china's economic growth. i guess they're saying relative boost growth in the long term, that he will have to weaken the currency. i think the chinese probably want to keep it relatively stable versus their trading partners because they have moved across that. with the dollar. but it could certainly be the case that we have more chinese weakness through the course of the year. >> charlie, you look at the declines, once again today, after the index closed 20% just in january. is it too early to call a bottom, and does this raise a question when the it will come in? >> you have to wonder what they're talking about. the stock market dominated 99.5% by retail investors. i think the thing is not to look at day-to-day volume difficult. i thin that's relatively futile. what investors realize to stop
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looking for it. shanghai you might get stability. i think what you look to look at what the economy is doing. the pmi this morning is under 50. so manufacturing is relatively weak. so overall market volatility is not going strong in chien but divergent. >> charlie, good morning, you mentioned it yourself. we have seen the falling prices, overcapacity in key sectors like steel and energy. and many think that that's go ing to be around for a long time. how do you, how do you talk to investors at the moment. especially after having seen the significant selloff over the course of last year, with many chinese stocks off by 25%? >> well, we've will be looking
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at the chinese fund for a long time. pretty much every month we talk about the volatility so we hope our clients are used to it. at a time when china is not growing particularly strongly and when there's a lot of change in terms of reform, you really need to be in the best companies. the best industries that are generating cash flows, have i margins and more importantly don't have any debt. you certainly wouldn't see us buy into particularly these reform stories on the supply side with regard to steel or anything like to. it's going to be extremely messy in those industries, and i'd stay clear of them. what i would be targeting is companies or industries in consumer services, particularly those around i.t. and i wouldn't be dips in my toes in clothing companies. good companies like ten cent and rim. >> is it safe to say there's pretty heavy deleveraging still
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taking place in some of the more traditional sectors? >> oh, absolutely. they're struggling for cash flow rather than paying off some of their debt. steel prices has been going up actually in shanghai. you might see increase in profit for the companies based on the spread over iron ore. while that's got a long way to address the balance sheets across the whole in the steel sector in china. >> charlie, thank you very much. charlie awdry at henderson global investors. it's always nice to have you involved in the top of the hour so we can use your e-mails. the address is streetsignseurope@cnbc.com. also@twitter, or@cnbc or @nancy. louisa, get in touch because there's plenty more to come on the shows. baing on the banks.
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the bearrons with the slump. stay tuned to find out which names it's backing. and google is not as easy as a.b.c. it could be set to report losses. will investors simply shrug it off? we discuss coming up. and finally as candidates go into the iowa caucus. let's look at last minute votes we'll head out live in the hawkeye state to the caucus.
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welcome back to "street signs." another busy day of earnings here. julius baer fund is reporting its missed its expectations. the swiss bank posted a net profit of 121 francks.
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after setting aside shares. off by 1.7%. let's get to julia chatterley. julia, there was some sign of strength. but investors on the stock report, what's your read. >> reporter: well, as you quite rightly said, if you look at the underlying business, as they were saying to me, or agency the ceo as saying to me, actually, better than expected, tough comparison for the first half of the year, because trading was boosted by the abandoned swiss peg. what we did see say 10% rise in dividend. when i spoke to the ceo, i asked him what else can i do for investors, what about the opportunity for buybacks, listen in. >> when we look at it, we're favored and also some power. we're looking for additional
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opportunities, i think we've looked at what we trust or not. i think specifically, we've seen guided people early on to see we're not interested. i think whether we'll be interested or not, we'll tie the market. >> reporter: the interesting thing about julius baer, 50% is in the emerging markets, 25% in asia pacific. i asked him specifically what are we seeing from clients in asia, in klein, what are you seeing? listen in. >> our reading from the outside is maybe a bit more pessimistic than what it is on the ground. >> reporter: why? >> i think it's simply the volatility. exasperated peoples fear in china. in the last 12 months we've had volatility, i guess that makes people nervous. >> reporter: you've had a the lot of asset and fund managers
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saying because of expected depreciation. are you kind of pricing that in as well? >> look, we're pricing action from the market. there's a difference between long-term investment and short-term, i would say, trading strategy. i think it will devalue over the time. i think the thing that was clear, how it was done, everybody is a little surprised. we underestimated the action. and more the open market. but at the end of the day, i think structurally, i think we should still see good numbers from china. >> reporter: you have to wonder one of the more important things of julius baer, the relationship get morgue assets under management than the gross slow down that we're seeing in asia. more importantly in the merging markets. an interesting point. but overall, results are a touch weaker than expected and i think that reflected in the share
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price. guys, back to you. >> julia, thank you for that. in other banking news, hsbc is reportedly planning on freeze salaries in order to cut back on costs. with $5 billion in expenses by 2017. now, back in june, hsbc announced that it would slash one in five jobs and shrink its investment bank by a third. this due to the slow down and stricter regulations in banks. barclays agreed to pay more than a combined $154 million that they disled investors over dark pools. barclays admitted it broke the law and it will pay $70 million according to officials. the two largest fines ever le levied in connection with dark pool cases. and bmps trading higher and
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the bank is considering raising its disposable to 5.2 uros from that. the lender has the highest quantity than the italian banks. the italian post office has denied reports it's gooding merging with monty dei. barrons said now is the time to buy banks. louisa, the message here, we talked about the european banks, it's different than the u.s. report we're seeing coming out of barrons, when you talk about the italian lender loans. and hour, barons sees about
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upside on the banks. pointing out that the top banks have 8 to 12 pe ratio. >> they're loving it. front page of barrons, i tweeted the link earlier. they're have positive, saying the selloff has it looking like a bargain. the best financial shape that the banks have been for years, they say as well. as i mentioned, a whole host of banks, jpmorgan chase. >> some of the smaller banks are on there, too. >> you have seen "the big short"? a while back. kind of at the end of the movie it almost speculates what's the next thing going to be at least the crisis at some point. but with the banks, we'd love to hear from you whether or not you think that banks have been oversold. it's now the time to get back into the banks and the difference between u.s. banks versus european banks as well?
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a very different environment. >> to predict the next big short, they think it's going to be the next big time big short. get in touch with us at twitter. @nancycnbc. shares of nokia have been falling. it says it will lift sales to its patent division to around 1 billion you're close is less than analysts expected. they're hoping it will make it lower than eriksson. alcatel-lucent also trading lower as well. nokia looking to close over the french maker. this quarter. and b.t. is planning to restructure its business after reporting its best revenue growth in seven years. the core earnings rose by 3%.
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1.6 billion pounds by the period. our colleague, i asked him whether the bt is overhauled of the ee or whether it's a way of keeping the relagulator happy? >> the regulatory review at the moment, what they want to do is ensure that we're able to take advantage of the full e.e. acquisition. which is is predominantly a uk business. and that we could leverage the capability of that for business customers which is one of the biggest upsides in t acquisition, i think. so, we wanted to make sure we can do that. and better serve the public sector in the uk. well, simon weeden is with us, the managing director and telecom research from citi. simon good to have you with us this morning, what do you make of the latest announcements
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coming from bt? >> well, first, the results, our expectations look for an improvement in performance relative to the first half. bt delivered that and can't beat that. so even against some more elevated expectations, the numbers will get better. and then as you just mentioned we had the reorganization announced and this is allowing them to absorb e e and is this problematic. they probably have the best opportunity to sell mobile into the account-managed corporate base. as you can see the unit suffer so they can focus on where the e is strongest. i would say reorganization makes sense and the numbers are decent, particularly given the results so far this quarter. >> so, they'd be creating a corporation of 35 million, broadband, mobile, tv. a mean, a lot of customers, like you say, in a lot of these areas. do you think that they're going
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to be able to manage further deals in the pipeline? >> we're not anticipating any material acquisitions for bt going forward. i think the big gap that they've had for some time, over ten years, has been the lack of mobile. i think it's true to say that every other european incumbent operating in that position has a mobile operation. and they've maybe been benefitting by combining the net worth and the back office to get efficiencies between mobile and fix. you see that happening in every other european country except here. so, for us, the bt is very logical. bt is can take advantage of
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about 1% in the regular. the carrier said it would maintain its full year profit forecast. the kraef announces an 800 million declare rise. trade be has been halted in shares after a share. after the company lost its third kraef in 13 months. after resigning just over a year.
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>> i lost my glasses. >> i know. >> i need them. if you find my glasses, let me know. anyway, microsoft is looking to move down under water. why the tech giant could be heading under to cover costs. we'll tell you how that works. you're watching "street signs" here on cnbc.
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hi, everybody. welcome back. you're still watching "street signs." i'm louisa bojesen. >> and i'm nancy hulgrave. these are your headlines. well, a cautious start to february to european markets after the toughest january on record for stocks.
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tech being the biggest drag after weighing heavy on tech. and china down after the second largest economy heading to a three-year low. the ceo of julius baer said up to 30% of u.s. assets are being kept in cash as volatility is exacerbating it. >> we've had it where it i guess makes people nervous. the thing that was clear how it was done and i think everybody was a bit surprised. >> and billionaire investor george seros backs hillary clinton as they get ready to square off in the iowa caucus. good morning, welcome back to "street signs." to bring you some uk january manufacturing data.
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we've got sterling hitting a session high at the moment. that's because manufacturing for pmi for january is coming in much more than anticipated. we got january manufacturing 51.8, 51.6 whether we look at dow jones or reuters. the output has hit 58.6. that compares to 55.5. and that explains the profit in the sterling dollar trade at the moment. up by almost 1.5%. >> remember the house price has slowed for last month. now week seeing uk mortgage approvals hitting a four-month high, too. add that into the move in sterling as well. here in europe, european equity markets slightly mixed. we're a little bit lower for some of the main markets out there at the moment. periphery market, especially to the south, seeing a few points
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higher. ftse like the dax and cac off by 0.5%. >> there was so much hope we would kick off february on a high note after the rebound we saw on friday. that's not the case. there's a check of where the u.s. markets are set to open. again, we're seeing red arrows with the dow jones down by 70 point. nasdaq 20 points and s&p 500 about 11. >> now, we have been talking about the end of the month, right? january. just to recap what type of month we saw for the u.s. markets. dow off by 5.5%. s&p, 500. and then djia, 5.5%. and nasdaq, significant loss us. we'll have to see if we can turn it around. >> that's right. hope it turns out differently. but we can't break the correlation to oil prices.
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we've been following oil prices day officer day here. it appears to be on trent with brent crude off 0.4%. and wti crude down about 1.2%. all right. let's move on. and let's talk a little bit about -- well, venezuela, among other things, because the oil minister there mr. del pino will be meeting with russia's energy minister today. also sitting down with them tomorrow. venezuela looking to report a cut. but prices come back quite a bit. we're now at $33, $35. an opec meeting to discuss falling prices has repeatedly been played down over the week. but over the weekend, saudi rerted that the kingdom would cooperate in order to support the markets. >> and then echoing the
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sentiment telling reuters that he would support a decision to cut crude production. but the big question remains whether the agreement would ever come to fruition. meanwhile, the prime minister of nigeria said the company has held opening talks with the world bank, but rejected reports of an emergency loan. the financial times wrote over the weekend that nigeria was requesting emergency help of $3.5 billion. africa's top oil producer is already planning to build up to $5 billion from international institutions to try and plug the oil revenue gap. louisa, it's no voice here, the world's top oil exporters feeling the pain. we did mention there was quite a bit of rebound. overall for the month of january, another 9% decline in wti. so they're hurting. there's no question about that. the question is whether or not opec or non-opec members will really come together here. if not, what's left for the countries to do. in nigeria, they're suggesting they're might get a loan from the bank.
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nigeria saying no emergency loans. >> the finance minister, she made it very clear, she said, why would we go to the bond markets to get money if we can get it via other authorities. she said it's not an emergency loan. she told them over the weekend, rather, it's the cheapest way possible to fund it. they've been talking about the budget deficit going up. the economy has been slowing. they're trying to balance some tricky measures with the falling oil price as well. they've had a massive increase in public spending. they've been trying to stimulate the economy. we're about eight months into the reign as president. >> it's high expectations coming in. the ipo market has hit a wall with zero public listings in january. that's the first time that's happened since 2011 following the global crisis. things are not looking any better on this side of the
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atlantic. pwic latest reports says london assets are likely to repeat as the swings in growth and rising oil prices are putting people off. the managing partner is here. good to see you. >> thank you. >> we're hearing that ipos aren't happening at the moment. but at the same time, we're seeing an increase in some of these unicorn companies and also here in europe as well. >> absolutely, i think there's a period of digestion going on in the public market, and that's off the back of a couple of really strong years, especially in technology. i guess we've been tracking, our mission at gp bullhound is to track and helping to invest. i think what we're seeing here is is that there are a lot of companies hitting that billion
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dollar mark. whereas in the past, a lot of european companies would be criticized for selling out too early. i think the infrastructure is emerging, over 40 last year. i think it's actually up to 50. and i think the important thing that a lot of people are talk about a bubble and are the markets correcting. i think there's a correction going on. but i think if you look at the underlying growth of these companies, a lot of them are moving by 100 to 300% year after year. >> you put out a service report recently where you identified 40 european startups of $1 billion or more. as opposed to, i think, 30 in 2015. >> yes. >> but they ever an you identify them, then the challenge is to grow them. otherwise you have a bunch of startups, but if they don't actually become set companies like mature companies, then what's the point. >> absolutely. so, i think there's a difference between what's been happening
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between the uggs a.s. and europ. i think the u.s. has a history of these, a huge amount of capital to today's investors. one of my favorite steps is when people ask, this is a bubble, are things going wrong. look to look at mary newcombe, one on the internet sector. she prepares reports. you look back at the opening slide, it talks about from 1995, the top 20 internet stocks were around $13 billion in value. you fast forward that now, and it goes to 2.5 trillion. over a short period, incredible value is created. the difficulty, as you say, is picking the few that hit that wave and become that number one disruptive player. i think when we look at the u.s. and europe, the u.s. can take more risks because they've had
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these unbelievable values they've created thousands of times their initial investments. they aren't necessarily generating revenues. in europe, the bar shyer. if you look at the companies that have hit that, they're already generating significant revenue us. already some of them close to profitability. >> but the other challenge here ask, the valuations, whether 1 billion plus or not. some paper gains into real gains. when you talk about lack of ipos, how concerned are investors in terms of liquidity? to drive it up to get an actual exit. >> i think that's always a concern. i think the markets are going to be cooler for a while. and i think that's probably a healthy thing. i think some of the valuations are reaching too risky levels, particularly in the u.s. if you look at the exit for now,
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there's an ecosystem around the investors that means they don't necessarily need an exit or a transaction to sell their stake. there are other funds that are stuck, and other equity funds buying positions. it doesn't force the exit within a certain time period. i think the other interesting thing, to build these companies, companies that will stand the test, the leaders of tomorrow, it does take time. and rushing them and trying to force them to do things that aren't necessarily good for the user base or their clients is not always the right thing to do. >> all right. managing partner at gp bullhound, thank you for joining us. google's parent company alphabet is set to report earnings which could send its market cap above apple's. if it's the first time it will divide its results into two segments, google core for search
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and mobile and youtube. plus all the rest that's there. now wall street is reporting operating in but hefty losses between $3 billion and $5 billion are expected as mega money pours into investments like driverless cars and finding a cure for the ageing. >> apple has a secret team of experts to start developing its prototypes in order to rival facebook oculus or hollands. the covert research effort includes hundreds of stock from targeted acquisitions and poached employees with expert cities in the technology. and while the ceos of amazon and tesla aim for the stars it looks like microsoft has set its goals much, much lower. according to a report by "the new york times," researchers at microsoft are exploring the
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possibility of a data center that can operate hundreds of feet under the ocean. the move, eliminates one of the most expensive problems, the air conditioning bill. >> i mean, it makes sense, right? >> it does. >> you have to think how big are the air conditioning bills if they're willing to take on the cost of the data subocean. >> no, in terms of energy and developments. stuff like this is already done in housing all right. >> that's right. >> trying to cool houses via i'm not sure how it works in terms of cooling via water around the air tubes or vice versa. >> sounds about right. >> and econess funding, too. in sports, world number one novak djokovic has become the australian open champion for a record equaling six times over the british andy murray. he got off to a shaky start
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taking one game. murray ace fight toughened. he narrowly losing the sets, i met djokovic, very nice. very professional, very cha charismatic and very sportsman like. well still to come on "street signs," we've been talking about the presidential election in the u.s. move for so long now. >> finally getting to voting action. >> coming up, as candidates barn storm through iowa searching for last-minute votes. we're going to head out live to the hawkeye state ahead of today's caucus. don't want to miss that one. stay tuned. welcome back to
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signs." the top stories this morning. at yeast 86 people have been
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killed in a boca haram attack in nigeria on saturday night. that's according to the national emergency management agency. the attack during in the lori village and two camps that has 25 refugees. that's five kilometers from nigeria's biggest city northeast. and syria is considering a proposal by a u.n. special envoy that could help the delegation press into talks. representatives had warned earlier that they may walk away from the geneva talks unless the suffering of sillians is eased. and uk's prime minister cameron and tusk failed to reach a deal in talks after another 24 hours of, quote, crucial discussions. and george soros has donated
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$6 billion to a super pac supporting hillary clinton the second half of last year. the billionaire investor was a high profile supporter of president obama. soros' overall contribution to the campaign now stands at $7 million. primaries officially get under way in the u.s. with the iowa caucus. and donald trump and hillary clinton, they remain the favorites to come out on top for the respective parties. a key poll by iowa's des moines register shows trump leading ted cruz by five percentage points in the republican race. clinton leads bernie sanders by three points. just a little confused as how to the caucuses works. >> caucuses are held in schools, churches and government buildings. and it's where voters gather and show up in person to select their candidate at over 1600
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precincts in iowa. but in iowa republicans and democrats caucus very differently. let's start with republicans. it's easier. they show up to the caucus location and simply cast a secret ballot for the can david their choice. delegates are awarded proportionally based on the overall statewide vote total. pretty straightforward, right? it's basically an old-fashioned firehouse primary. now, if only it were that simple for the democrats. first, there are pictures for each candidate. then voters move around the caucus site, let's say a high school gym and gather with like minded suorters. clinton supporters in one corner, sanders, and o'malley undeclared. if martin o'malley can't receive at least 15% support at this site, his supporters can go to another candidate or become undeclared. by the way, this works the same for the undeclared. if they don't get 15%, they have
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to choose among those who did meet the threshold. this all continues until only viable candidates with at least 15% support or the undeclared group if they have 15% support remain. nbc's tracie potts is on the campaign trail in des moines, iowa. tracie, pleasure to see you at this early hour. with the polls relatively close at this phase, a lot of emphasis has been on china. a lot encouraged to come out and vote in the caucus. what are we expecting at this stage? >> well, that is definitely going to be the key. we've heard bernie sanders say that over and over. turnout is going to be the key, not only for this campaign but for all of these candidates. the biggest turnout we ever saw here was 2008. that was the first obama election. 1 in 6 i wants voted. we'll see if they break that threshold tonight. it's not just about how many people turn out. the turnout also has to do with
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who turns out. for example, the polls have told us on the democratic side is that older voters, those who have caucused before tend to favor hillary clinton. in other words, if the people who normally come out in the neighborhoods are the people who come out tonight, then these likely to have an advantage. on the other hand, if you get say lot of new caucusgoers, younger caucusgoers, that is more likely to benefit bernie sanders. we're seeing the same thing with republicans, the big difference older ones versus younger ones. not just the amount of the turnout and that process you just heard about, also who is likely to turn out could have a big impact on the race. >> tracie, thank you for that. just a quick one, often we're told that the turnout is impacted by the weather. what's the weather like on the ground? >> so, right now, it's fine. we are expecting a blizzard and some snow. we're told that's going to be after the caucuses tonight.
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they'll go in, there will be an hour, maybe two hours at some sites. and that the snow won't start to fall until later in the evening. if people are spooked by that, it's certainly possible they won't come out. but in reality, we understand that the weather is not likely to be a factor and preventing people from coming fought the i want to. >> all right, tracie. john ramsey is with us the u.s. political analyst at ihs country risk. what do you think? >> i totally agree with it. if you have caucus at the polls it's going to be a great night for hillary clinton and ted cruz as well. who is leading donald trump before folks traditionally go out to the polls. if we see major new individuals coming out for the caucuses, it's going to be a good night for donald trump. >> a lot of people speculating how much it's hurt trump not actually participating in the last debate. is it going to have a mark, a
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material impact on him? >> we haven't seen him in the polls yet, but i wants are a fickle bunch. if they feel like you've ignored them in the past, there's a possibility they're not going to support you in the future. we don't see it yet. i think there are some individuals out there that might turn away and say, hey, listen i want that on my debate stage. >> john, people are turning to the next primary in new hampshire. we've seen historically, iowa does not always predict the nominee. but if we do get a win from trump on the republican side, hillary clinton in the democratic side, how important is that for solid feig that nomination process? or do we have unknowns to get by? >> oh, absolutely. this is a situation it's all about expectations, if some respect if trump does win, maybe he ekes out a victory, and wee see does marco rubio start to have enthusiasm? for hillary clinton, it would be great for her to have one, she does have a back stop in south carolina but it looks like bernie sand serious going to do
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really well in in that. >> it just came out today that 22 e-mails were declared top secret on the personal e-mail server. given the timing of this falling right as iowa caucuses get under way, do you thank you that will matter? >> well, i think there's always a few individuals out there that say this is an issue that's going to decide it for me. it could be decisive for people supporting o'malley right now. for the most part, people are just waiting for this thing to start. >> who do you think comes in third for the gop? if you look at the polls, weighing towards trump and cruise taking off in the first two spots in the initial caucuses, who takes the third place? >> well, i mean, marco rubio is going to do really, really well tonight. i think some people are talking he might actually finish second if he gets the supporters out to the polls. i don't think it's third so much for iowa that we're looking at. it's third in new hampshire.
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at this point, you're looking sat trump number one, cruz number two and four candidates there. >> i thought was interesting via tracie, the age discrepancies. when you traditionally vote. >> sure, sure. >> where are the younger voters in this in general when it comes to gop? >> well, i think for a lost new voters, you know, across the board. and this is older and younger, they're kind of gearing towards donald trump. he's say new phenomena. we haven't seen him before. he's a face they're familiar with on "the apprentice." i think some some respects he's getting a lot of that. i think traditional conservative voters are veering towards trump -- sorry, ted cruz. >> we heard that the establishment within the gop was against the trump presidency they perhaps even have efforts to block it. do you think that has faded as his popularity increases, or is that a possibility? >> i think there's a lot of establishment folks that are still uncomfortable with donald trump. i think that's without question.
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at this point, if they have to choose an alternative between donald trump and ted cruz, they're going with a fellow they can actually negotiate with. that's donald trump and his presidency. >> have you been surprised in campaigning so far there hasn't been that much discussion on the economy. something that we watch here. certainly, you've heard comments from hillary clinton on the pharmaceutical and the banks as well. when it comes to the gop side, it's part of the dialogue that's lacking, do you agree? >> i completely agree. on the democrats, you see it on the issue of inequality and employment. for republicans, donald trump, his issue is immigration, immigration, immigration. >> all right. await the results in iowa. >> john, thank you very much. john raines, u.s. political analyst at ihs country risk. louisa, let's get another check on how the european markets are faring. it had suggested we would get
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gains for february. but that is not the case. as you can see, we're pretty fairly in negative territory across the board. the french off almost 0.7%. u.s. futures, we're setting ourselves up for an open a couple of hours away. granted luck if it happens before then. a little red there. looking towards a slightly lower open for the u.s. again, on the back of an awful january. so, beginning of february is a little questionable. >> that's right. despite that bounce. back in the red. that's it for today's show. i'm nancy hulgrave. >> it is indeed. i'm louisa bojesen. we'll see you tomorrow, same time, same place. have a lovely day. much more to come on the channel.
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good morning. breaking overnight, chinese factory activity drops to a three-year low. new this morning, the bulls look to bounce back wall street, opens the books in february after the worst month in u.s. stocks for at least seven years. and it's finally here, caucus day in iowa. the race for the white house kicking into full year. it's monday, february 1st, 2016. and "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ good morning, welcome to "worldwide exchange," i'm sara eisen. >> and i'm domenic chu

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