tv Squawk Box CNBC February 8, 2016 6:00am-9:01am EST
>> announcer: live from new york where business never sleeps this is "squawk box." ♪ good morning, everyone. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin. joe is off today. we've been watching the u.s. equity futures. look out, another rough monday morning. we've been under pressure all morning long. right now, you see the dow futures are down about 200 points below the fair value. s&p down 23. nasdaq down by about 65. the new growing came by the stocks open dipped about 2%. you see the dax is actually down by 2.7%. the cac in france off by 2.5%. the ftse down about 1.8%. you can see red arrows across the board. a lot happening in oil prices. take a look, wti down 2.5% almost. now sitting at $30.15. and brent is down $22.40.
most asian markets are closed. this is coming with the celebration of the lunar new year. this is the year of the monkey but there is still big market news coming out of asia as well that's been concerning as well. china reporting a nearly 100 billion drop in reserves to the lowest level in feerl fonearly years. in geopolitical news, the u.n. security council is condemning a north korea rocket launch. pyongyang said it launched a satellite into space yesterday for scientific and peaceful purposes. that's what they called it. the u.n. argues the launch is prohibited by multiple security council resolutions. if that's not enough for you, the zika virus is discouraging many americans from traveling to latin america and caribbean. that's according to a new poll from reuters. 41% said they're aware of the disease said they're less likely to take a trip to affected areas. the u.s. olympic committee told u.s. sports organizations that athletes and staff concerned
about the zika virus should colorado not going to the games in rio in august. >> i just told the captain of my yacht to move it -- that's a joke. >> i know. >> it possible that you could actually shut the whole olympics down? >> i started thinking about this yesterday, honestly, if you start looking through some of these situations, there are some serious concerns. it was on the front page of "the new york times" over the weekend. >> shut down for -- >> not that i'm aware of. here's the thing, i think it started in brazil, as a result potentially safety 2014 world cup. they think it was either that or a canoe race that happened weeks later and brought a lot of people from the polynesian islands where this had been happening before hand. i have to think if you're somebody that watches disease patterns, this is a huge concern for you. we've got other buzz stories to tell you about this morning. of course, the big one, the denver broncos are the super
bowl champions. for those of you who didn't say up late now, peyton manning and the broncos, the denver defense was outstanding. sacking cam newton six times. von miller was named mvp. he logged 2 1/2 sacks of cam newton. of course, it was the halftime show, lady gaga singing the national anthem. that came beforehand. all of those endorsements and peyton manning giving budweiser an impromptu endorsement. a couple of things going on on twitter, last nigh night, #riptwitter became one of the top trending on the social website over the weekend. >> ouch. >> it was not good. this followed a buzzfeed report saying twitter will reorder tweets to prioritize those viewers that they think people want right now. everything is chronological. this is going to take them out
of that orders. >> already, we've seen stuff that says while you were away. >> while you were away. this is exposed to be an expanded version. sort of what facebook does, allows the cream of the top to come to the top. >> to the top or the sponsored ones, depending on the situation? >> i'm not sure sponsored is oftentimes the best tweets -- i don't know, part of my twitter problem, it was it fomo. >> fear of missing out? >> if you ever tweet out something and look at statistics on it. you can usually only capture somewhat 10% of a third of viewers. >> i'd be surprised if it's even that many. you basically have to catch them as they're watching. >> right. this potential will change that. and there are people in technology community that think it would enhance the twitter usage. a lot of twitter who do not. happily for those of hue do not, ceo jack dorsey throwing cold
water on what turned out to be a virtual fire tweeting, i want you all to know we are listening. we never planned to reorder time lines next week. also auto news this morning, ford reportedly planning to build a new plant in mexico, sharply increasing factory output from that country. "wall street journal" will keep us briefed on the plan. and arrive along gm also working on a major investment in mexico for the latest production capacity. >> that's interesting, mexico working hard to get foreign expends tours in the state. you see more of it in the industries. in other auto industry news, volkswagen plans to offer generous compensation packages for the 600,000 u.s. owners of diesel owners that emit an illegal amount of emissions. this is according to ken feinberg whose running the company's claims. but vw has not decided whether the owners will be offered cash,
car buybacks or repairs. . chobani has rejected an offer from pepsico and other investors. the firm worked with goldman sachs exploring a sale after receiving bids from several companies last year. it reportedly rejected the offer because the firm was looking for a majority stay. and chobani was only interested in a minority stake. >> i wonder told ingrid that she should buy chobani because i don't like the yogurt that -- pepsi owns the -- >> which one? >> i don't remember. >> why would i buy a majority stake because i'm interested in actually acquiring you? >> i'm actually wondering that the growth on chobani, it's not only growing but up exponentially. consumer news this morning, gasoline prices continuing their lower trend. the average price of a gallon of regular drops by 8 cents to
$1.82. joe kernin, if you're listening, i drove this weekend and did my own gas. the lundberg survey said it's the lowest in 11 years. the cheapest in tulsa at $1.44 a gallon. highest in l.a. $2.62 a gallon. i paid $2.07. >> you pumped yourself? >> i did one full one in the state of new york and then one -- yeah. let's get another check of the markets this morning. i know it's ready you may not be ready for more bad news but check this out. the futures are down over 200 points. sitting down below that, 196. nasdaq down by 65. a lot of this is come dprg whki
europe. the dak crack is up 2.5%. we've been fairly tied to what happens in energy prices. this morning, wti down 2.3%. let's check out the ten-year yielding 1.84 for 6% last week. the yield has gone down over the weekend. 1.82% is where we stand right now. if you check out the dollar, the dollar against the euro, 1.115 it's down against the yen at 116.66. the gold prices on a tear lately. up another $19. $1,176 an ounce. it has been a tough year for stocks so far. technology bearing the brunt of the market. the sector shutting over half a trillion dollars in market chap. the nasdaq showing more weakness an a big decline on friday. joining us right now is michael
hanson, he is senior global economics the bank of america merrill lynch. and julian smith. ahead of equity. julian, tell me what do you think is happening here? i can pick 15 different worries are starting with china, oil, the fed? >> this is the sum of all the bad news. basically, we started the year, sort of on the wrong foot with all of the things that we knew were going to be issues, china, the fed, oil, intensifying. and here we are. and we haven't had any good news. and i will say that watching politics over the weekend, only threw gasoline on the fire. >> how so? >> just basically, you know, when you hear the drum beat of how bad things are in this country. yet, we still have only 5% unemployment. wages are growing as we saw on friday. and consumer remains confident.
>> let me ask you, that makes you sound you are not a believer in all of this. you think this is just noise and not actually a bad news buyer? does that make you a buyer? >> we are a cautious buyer. we think this is not the start of a bear market. this is likely one of the deep corrections such as we've seen along the way. what's the catalyst going to be? that's difficult to pinpoint. it's likely going to be just the passage of time. steadiying of prices. oil has correlated to stocks to the point where our clients are calling it uninvestable. we think that will moderate over time and risk appetite will return at some point. >> michael, let's talk about what we heard friday. jobs report is weaker than expected but we are looking at incredibly low unemployment rate. how does the fed measure these things? >> they're, 4.9. the headline is not terrible. 150 is probably the trend when you think of the stage in
recovery this year. meanwhile, wages were up a bit sharply. i think the trend of wages has been higher since last year. saw a mild tickup in participation rates. so the report in its gut was actually decent. pretty good. >> janet yellen is going to have to come out this week and kind of tell the market where she stands at this point. is she looking at the turmoil we're seeing in markets overseas, or she looking at the markets? >> she's looking at both. you heard them talk about being more cautious and what the impact might be but they're reserving judgment. i don't think yellen is going to preannounce something and say we're not going. but i think they is going to say that we're cautious. and going to take the considerations into account. it's the data flow from here on in that. >> know expectation in that? >> not this year. >> is that where you fall, not this year? >> no, i still think given the
dynamics in the labor market. the fact that you see the core level, headline could come down a bit because of oil that puts the fed, i think in play, not for march but by june. there's still some risk that the market is well behind the curve in where the fed is going to be. >> fed doesn't want to get led around by the market. at the same time, we can't ignore that happening. part of what we've seen so powerful. the weakness in the dollar just in the last couple of weeks that the fed is less and less likely. >> right. >> she does not sound at least sanguine about it? >> i think she will. she's not going to announce that we're done for the year. >> right. >> anyone in the markets hoping to get a clear message out of yellen, quite frankly, this isn't the venue for it. congress asks very few questions for monetary policy. we may not learn as much. >> the big question is corporate bonds and the bet against corporate bonds. i don't know if you saw it in
the journal. does that make sense to you? >> no, the bet makes sense as a hedge against -- >> it's billion dollars on ten very strong financial companies. financially company's not financial companies but financially strong companies. >> because what you've seen is the divergence between the lower credits and the investment grade credits. essentially if you're looking to hedge something you're inclined not to hedge against things that have already gone down as much as they have. and thinking that the market might punish the higher rate credit. but we don't see it, at the end of the day, without a recession that that is not likely to pay is not the beginning of a bear market. it's a correction as we've seen in the past. sometimes in corrections are steep enough, they can be self-fulfilling prophesies.
they can lead us into steeper falls. >> they can. but as you look at as michael said, the job picture is quite strong. with the geopolitical violence over the last several months, the political campaign it's actually a wonder that the consumer has remained as confident as they have. >> to stick on that point and lay out a scenario, most people don't believe inflation to be a big deal. but a stronger than expected wage group continue, and even if the economy is sluggish and the fed has doubts, don't they have to at some point move to head off inflation? >> yeah, potentially. the market is not pricing any inflation either. so as the data starts to come in a little better, i think the market is going to reassess. >> and if the market is looking at a situation where you're facing a higher rate and the fed moving on these issues and an economy not strong enough to move it, how does that play out?
>> i think unless we have it collapse to the point where you basically have a market with growth, i suspect what you're going see is a gradual improvement in the economy across a range of fronts that will be supportive for the idea that inflation is moving gradually. that means a couple hikes. maybe three hikes at most this year. not going to throw the economy into recession. typically, to have a recession, you need either very aggressive fed hiking, an oil shock. but even if you look historically, at big slowdowns globally, or the asian crisis, europe crisis in the early '90s. and debt crisis in the '80s, it doesn't spill over. >> julian, the tech sector was see beloved at the end of the year and now it's not beloved. >> it's gotten punished. to us, that's operate of the latter stages of the correction
than the beginning of the bear. essentially going back to corporate bonds all of the sectors, the cyclical sectors, energy, et cetera, sold off last year, now you're selling off the last men standing. >> do you like technology shares better than other shares? are there other sectors that you think you'd rather be in? >> well technology is one of them, because, again, we think when you look at technology, health care as well, yes, there are issues. there are issues with the entire market in psychology right now. but those sectors have earnings and they have cash. and we dhink back that the buyback and the m & a. >> are you talking about the fang stocks? >> well, you have to be discriminating rather than paint with a brush. it's companies able to grow their revenues consistently and have grown their earnings.
because in an environment like this there is going to be a premium for growth. >> julian, michael, thank you both for coming in. coming up when we return, cam newton and carolina, last night and the super bowl. we've got highlights from the broncos win. the best and worst commerces. we'll talk about it first. first, presidential candidates going on hot. i don't know if you saw this unbelievable. one day ahead of the new hampshire primary. we'll get a recap from ben wideman, straight ahead. we'll be back in a moment. ♪
welcome back to "squawk box," everyone. look out, another monday and another set of red arrows. u.s. equity futures are showing that the dow futures are down below 200 points before fair value. s&p futures off by 24 points. nasdaq down by 69. fed speak and retail data and more earnings reports fill the calendar. check out hasbro reports before the opening bell. 21st century fox. and coca-cola and viacom on tuesday. wednesday, janet yellen on
capitol hill hill. and time warner and cisco, tesla and twitter. on thursday, yellen testifies once again. this time before the senate. plus we have pepsico, aig, cbs all reporting earnings. we'll round out the week with reports on sales, income prices and consumer sentiment. gop candidates shaking shots at a surging marco rubio during saturday night's debate. here's nbc's steve handelsman. >> reporter: surging in the rolls marco rubio knowing he'll get slammed as a first-time senator. >> i think the experience is not what you did but how it got worked out. >> have you not been in a situation where you held to be held accountable. >> reporter: chris christie and jeb bush. >> you learn this by doing it. >> we're going to win with trump. >> reporter: trump who skipped the iowa debate and lost the vote was aggressive.
>> let me -- >> reporter: but trump deporting every undocumented immigrant got slammed by governor john kasich. >> i couldn't even imagine how we would even begin to think about taking a mom or a dad out of the house when they have not committed a crime since they've been here, leaving their children in the house? i mean, that is not, in my opinion, the kind of values that we believe in. >> reporter: ted cruz grabbed the trump hard line and solution. >> in short, what we're going to do, we're going to build a wall, we're going to triple the border patrol. and we're going to increase -- actually, since donald enjoyed that, i will simply say i've got somebody in mind to build it. >> reporter: what's first in trump's mind is a big win tuesday. his first. rubio's dream, grabbing number two. i'm steve handelsman, nbc news, manchester, new hampshire. we're joined by ben wideman. economic and cnbc contributor.
that was one of the more fascinating exchanges i've seen in the debate. >> rubio? >> yes, in a big way. how much does that set rubio back, if it does at all, how much does it lift chris christie? >> i think it sets marco rubio back more than lifts chris christie. with that same talking point with obama knowing what he's doing over and over when it wasn't part of the question and wasn't responsive. he looked robotic. that's the biggest knock on rubio. >> do you think it was scripted in his head? >> yes. >> or do you think he actually thought he had this point that he was trying to make and needed to make it again? i didn't understand what was going on. >> it was strange. it was a script in his head. if you look at focus groups on the dial groups on debates, republican candidates do very well when they bash barack obama or hillary clinton. it registers with republican voters but it's less effective when you repeat it over and
over. you heard audience groaning and boos when he did it a third or fourth time. the problem with rubio, he's a great candidate, he does seem scripted. >> but that is to chris chris e christie's attack when he was calling him the boy in the bubble. why don't you do town halls. >> chris christie is faster on his feet in debates. he's good, he's aggressive. he had rubio on his heels. christie is pretty far back in new hampshire. >> why do you think he hasn't caught attention or picked up more than he has? >> yeah, it's a tough year for so-called establishment lane politics. he's kind of in that lane. as a northern eastern republican, it's tough for them in this day and age in the republican party, if these going to have a moment, this will be it. >> when it comes to establishing money which had gone to jeb bush and now seems to be lining up behind rubio, does anybody about to write that check say, you know what, take a pause.
>> do they wait? >> i think they wait. jeb bush is doing better in new hampshire he's in double digit numbers. he may finish top three or four. if he does, a lot of that establishment money about to jump ship to rubio, maybe a week or so, super tuesday. so the bleeding may have stopped a little bit. >> does trump have a shot in this? >> new hampshire? >> yes. >> yes. he's dot a 10% lead. i'd be surprised if trump doesn't win new hampshire. >> he needs to win. >> he needs to win. he needs to establish his mojo of i win all the time. he was fine in the debate, he got beat up on imminent domain with jeb bush. that was a strong moment. >> saying i really didn't know -- >> he's still going. >> he's still going strong, how long does he stay in? to the extent that chris christie or jeb bush are not going to, when does this all shake out? >> i think it shakes out a bit
after new hampshire. kasich is polling well in new hampshire it's that's a state that rewards moderates a little more than some of the other primary states. he was effective in that debate. some internal is polls show him second at this point. >> you just named a bunch of people, trump, considering that you think cruz still there, rubio, jeb and kasich. that's five people. >> that's five. >> do you think they're all going to finish in the top three or four? >> somehow, they're going to merge into the top three or four. trump, possibly kasich, after trump. maybe rubio hangs on to third. jeb, fourth, ted cruz, third, fourth, fifth. he hasn't really caught fire in new hampshire. he's not as much a new hampshire candidate. he's an iowa candidate or southern candidate. it's not a huge moment for cruz. if you're in the top five in new hampshire, you'll probably stick it out at least through south carolina, nevada, super tuesday. chris christie, single digits,
new hampshire. he's not going to do well in south carolina. >> to the other party for a second, if bernie keeps going after hillary for the goldman sachs -- has that gained traction? >> absolutely, yeah. i think the democratic primary voters are skeptical of wall street as we talked about at the end of last week. they want to know what did she say to goldman sachs. why is it she releasing these transcripts. is she hiding something? >> isn't goldman in particular to other firms or other speeches? >> it's the whole mystique. it's the vampire, all this stuff. it may not be fair to people that we know at goldman. it is emblematic of a lot of people at wall street to greed. >> it's emblematic of where the democratic party is right now? >> exactly. it's an anti-wall street moment. the question for hillary is why not just release the transcripts. if there's nothing in there --
these speeches tend to be big overview of the world. i'll tell what you i think she's worried about, and i think that is that there is kind words for the bankers at the beginning. >> thank you for having me, right. >> thank you for having me. they'd put that in an ad. the other bit is, i know in one of those speeches she talks about the causes of the financial crisis and says, it wasn't just banks. it was all of this. the last thing democrats want to hear is somebody running for their presidential nomination who would exonerate wall street bankers in any way. it does more damage. drip, drip, drip, why are you hiding stuff. if i were advising the campaign, i'd say give the transcripts. >> you there go. when we come back, the good, the bad and the weird. the highlights from the super bowl. also some memorable commercials right after this. as we head to a break take a look at the s&p winners and losers. ♪
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a meaningful legacy. with the guidance and support of your dedicated pnc wealth management team. ♪ welcome back to "squawk box." today's ultimate "executive edge" in case you went to bed early last night, 39-year-old peyton manning became the oldest quarterback to win the super bowl on the strength of the denver broncos defense. rob simmelkjaer, senior vice
president of nbc sports. >> hello, how are you? >> this is a bit of an upset. this is not what you planned for. >> it was an upset. it was about a five-point underdog. good news for vegas. vegas initially installed carolina as a four-point favorite, all of the money went to carolina. so the spread went up to about six. they made a lot of money in vegas last night. very good night for them. listen, when you have a great defense like denver has, you can still win in the nfl with a great defense. i think that's what we learned. >> all of the high yenend of th is cam newton versus peyton manning. really, those guys weren't the stars. >> no. peyton had a perfectly finite. cam newton had a terrible night. it was because of denver defense. abe to pressure him, put him on the ground. he never got his game going. a tough night for him. he's facing some questions this
morning about why he didn't dive on a fumble which is one of the key points on the tape. if you look at the tape, he sort of stepped away from it. a rough night for the nfl mvp. >> you're a sports money guy. peyton manning, does he make more endorsements as a function of this in the end? >> can peyton make more? the guy is in everything. >> is this a massive missed opportunity for cam newton? is there supposed to be -- is his agents thinking i was supposed to be fielding a hundred calls that i'm not fielding, is that not the case? >> i think it's a missed opportunity for him. yes, you're always going to make more as a super bowl winner than a loser. the super bowl is funny. when you win the payoff is huge. losing the super bowl is worse than not making the super bowl. so many people see you for the on time that year and see you in a losing situation. >> you said to us during the commercial break that the big winner was beyonce. >> to me. >> she won? >> she won the super bowl in my
opinion. and bruno mars. not only was that one of the best halftime shows i've ever seen. that's most of what i've seen out there on social media. she drops an album. the new album "formation ""the day before. and then i'm getting e-mails that night, during the game, announcing her tour. >> and then the ad right after the halftime. >> and the ad. she did a phenomenal job. mars as well. i'm a big coldplay fan. chris martin did a great job, too. but i thought it was tough for him and coldplay to be in that spot with two of the greatest performers of the generation that they're in. bruno mars and beyonce. >> it's funny, you could hardly hear him in the beginning. there was something weird with the mike. >> yeah, there were some people saying the audio was weird. >> the whole halftime show was the history part. >> that was phenomenal. >> that was terrific. >> i was digging that. >> i don't know with beyonce and
bruno mars, that little duel. that was well produced. to my knowledge, that was well proud. and the retrospective of the shows, with whitney houston and michael jackson. >> any of the ads? >> the avocado one. >> the scott baio one. >> and the apartment one -- goes up -- with the piano -- >> i thought that was good. >> puppy and monkey. >> that was incredibly silly but effective. talking about three things in one drink. i actually liked -- it was not highly produced but i like the colgate ad to stop running the water while you're brushing your teeth. all the water you waste while brushing your teeth. that is a good message.
>> we talked about the ads on friday. somebody pointed out that 22 of the 44 ads had been released before the super bowl. you kind of felt that, it felt a little dated. >> ad agencies over the years and marketers have gotten a little more shy about super bowl creative. it used to be so much pressure to just kill it. and when you didn't, it was tough. so, yes, a lot of marketers have gotten a little more conservative and tried not to put so much at stake during the super bowl itself. >> doritos, did you like that? >> the mammogram. >> it was on "usa today." i didn't see that one. >> the baby wants the -- the fetus, i guess, wants the dorito and jumps out of the womb to get the dorito. that was fun. >> does peyton retire at this point? >> i don't think there's any question he retires. he was very circumspect. he didn't want to answer the
question when asked by tracy wolfson. he was interviewed by bill cowher, he got misty eyed. you could tell right there, he knew this was his last game. like john elway. the only other hall of fame quarterback ever to end his career with a super bowl win is john elway, the man who brought peyton manning to denver. i think this is sort of a script. that peyton manning agreed to come to denver in the first place. >> nbc just got thursday night with cbs. and the other thing that's hanging out there is the possibility that there will be digital right to be sold to either apple or google. all of a sudden, we're talking about streaming this stuff in a whole new way. who do you think gets it, how much does it go for and how much of that is a challenge for broadcasters? >> i don't know who gets it. you saw yahoo! who had the first sort of entry with this with the london game that they streeamed
last year. it did well. based on what's going weren't with yahoo! it's hard to say. i think one of the players, there will be bidders. i wouldn't be shocked that more traditional players are bidders as well. we'll see. >> you do you think broadcasters? >> everybody in the business has a visual business now. you never know. i don't know who's going to get it. i think at the end of the day, it doesn't threaten what all the broadcasters are doing. the audiences are growing year in, year out. it's been shown over the years the more content out there, the more appetite for the content, especially when it documents something like the nfl. i don't think it's a pie that needs to be cut up. the pie grows year in and year out. and more exposure for capable subscribers will only grow interest in the game. >> i don't know if you saw this "the new york times" magazine, with the membership, an article
about roger goodell that he wants to double revenue by 2027. the only way to do that -- >> that's his goal early on, yes. >> pretty incredible. that's how you have to do it. >> the digital step, that's been a long way coming. i remember talking with goodell, four, five, six years ago. >> four, five, six years ago, the issue was there wasn't a enough eyeballs? >> it's doing well. right now, in the nfl, everyone is winning. we think that continues. >> rob simmelkjaer, thank you so much. when we come back, the energy market in focus. invesco's scott roberts says look out for a weakening dollar to lift oil prices. he will join us to explain this next. as we head to a break, take a quick check of what's happening in the european markets there's some bloodletting. but the dax down by 2.4%. we saw did down by 2.8% earlier.
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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. u.s. equity futures at this hour on this post-super bowl monday morning, looking to open down. dow opened 166 points down. s&p 500 off about 18 points. the nasdaq off about 60 points. also earnings just from toymaker hasbro, that economy reported a quarterly profit. $1.39. and that company raising its
quarterly dividend by 11%. hasbro's results were from strong holiday says and latest "star wars" and "jurassic park" toys. oil is down down 17%. joining us right now to talk about it is scott roberts. he's invesco's co-head of high yield investments and senior portfolio manager. scott, thanks for coming in today. i know that you've been taking a look at this and thinking that the dollar as it weakened would be something that helped with oil prices. and that certainly is the case. but we're still looking at oil prices down substantially. >> absolutely. a weakening dollar i think would be a curve ball in coming months. not many people are calling that. our bigger crew is crude is massively supplied around the u.s. and globe. we think the storage with continuing prices up until may or june.
>> and the idea that we've basically filled up all of the u.s. storage for this? >> 500 million barrels in the u.s. alone. the good news is the demand continues to be strong. the problem is the capital in the use of oil, we got ahead of ourselves quite a bit. >> at this point, we know the number of wells have come down substantially, maybe two-thirds just over the last year. we're still looking at that more than anybody expected? >> a couple of points i'd make. first and foremost, there's a long lead time from when a project starts when you have crude flowing out of wells. the bigger concern we have high decline rates in shale. now in 12 months' time, you're about 400, 500 barrels a day so it's basically cut in half. so, the thinking is with the massive decline in the u.s. we're glowing to see supply dropping in the u.s. we peak in april. our view by the end of this year, the u.s. will drop from
9.5 million barrels a day to 8.5 million barrels a day. >> at that point, is there a spike or normal levels? >> i wouldn't call it a spike. it's a range. >> height of the range? >> probably $75. >> that's a lot of money to be made from now to then? >> absolutely. being a dead guy, a lot of capital structures are under severe stress. we think a lot of these companies can make money in the $50, $60 range. in particular, the base in texas. >> meaning you're not going to be seeing bankruptcies as expected? >> i think bankruptcies will be higher. there's a lot of pain out there but it creates opportunities that i think people are getting concerned about in terms of bankruptcies coming in the way. >> what sorts of opportunities? there are many eem saying you don't want to mess with
comphotties when you can't predict where oil price, headed? it's too much of an unknown. >> that opportunity right there, people shy away. it was only a few years ago when people were throwing money at these companies to drill wells which we now know are a bad idea. the opportunity is you want to own the best of the best. for us, that the base in texas. for us, very low cash operating costs, that's a good thing. the added bonus we think m & a will pick up later this year. corporate board, not going to move much until we so a low in oil. but m & a will pick up. >> do you think straight m and a or structure a and a? >> absolutely. there are some that will go out of business, those garbage assets should not have been invested in. we know that now. the good assets like in texas i think there's going to be --
>> is it by strategics or a whole private equity game? >> i think there's investment grade, buyers will come in to look at high-yield companies that have poor acreage. i think private equity will get involved. and hedge funds will come in to try to disprove the distrusts. a growing trend real the city. multiple generations of families living together under the same roof. as head to break next, take a look at the currency trade. we're back in a moment.
welcome back, everybody. multi-generational homes are on the rise and many home builders are taking notice. diana joins us with more. good morning. >> good morning. you may think it's all about economics. that's certainly a part of it. there is a much bigger movement afoot. 14% of all u.s. households, 16.5 million, already live multi-generationally. many adults who never left because of the recession are delaying marriage, keeping them living with parents longer. also significant immigration from countries where multigenerational living is the norm. finally all the baby boomers are retiring and some are moving in
with adult children. we spoke to a family in seattle who said they could afford to live separately but chose not to. >> grandparents like me are more active, you know. we do more things. we're healthier. we live longer. so the relationships with grown-up children can mature, and i think that's something that has something to do with it. >> this is a huge opportunity for home builders because most existing homes today aren't built for multi-gen. lennar is a leader in the brand. this home has two entrances as you can see separately. kitchens are separate also and the family says they can go days without seeing each other if they want to, that is. a survey of 20,000 potential home buyers -- i find this fascinating -- found 44% would like to accommodate their elderly parents in their next home and 42% plan on accommodating their adult
children. becky, i was telling my teenage daughter about this story. let me just say, the look i got -- >> living with mom, don't even think about it? not there, not yet? >> 13. we'll see what she thinks later. >> as more family have dual-income parents, both parents working out of the home a lot of people wind up relying on grandparents for additional child care help too. >> this was the case in this family as well. she didn't exactly need it but the daughter said it was nice to have mom around if i need her. it was so interesting how they talked about that they wanted to, that they -- it wasn't economics, it wasn't about the money. it was really about just wanting to be together but not necessarily right on top of each other, having their own separate place under one roof. >> did you talk to the son-in-law? >> no. no. they were actually divorced. but i think that helped with it as well to have the extra people there. it's a great opportunity for the buildings, and they're starting
to build these new homes now designed specifically for that what the difference. they asked people what they want in the homes. they want the separate kitchens, smaller refrigerators in the second kitchen. i don't know why. but they have specific upgrades that they want to the homes, and the builders are listening. >> dithank you. coming up, global markets in focus. jim mckaugen joins us. internal scuffle going on at the world's largest hedge fund. details behind the disagreement at bridgewater from the "wall street journal" who wrote that story and a lot more at what's going on behind the scenes when we return.
markets under pressure. u.s. futures pointing to a sharply lower open. stocks in europe selling off. crude hangs around $30 a barrel. we're run down the biggest risks for investors. canada liking the last push before the new hampshire primary. can donald trump fend off the surge from competition? super moments on the field. >> pressure. they've gotten to him. the ball is out in the end zone. >> on the big stage. and don't forget, everything in between. >> totally odelled it. >> the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ ♪ live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box." ♪ i used to rule the world
welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. first in business worldwide, a little cold play post super bowl. another big story we're following bridgewater's responding to reports of a rift at the world's largest hedge fund. i spoke to him last night. that coming up in a couple moments. a statement from him. first the big game, the underdog denver broncos topping the panthers. peyton manning winning his second super bowl title. he could go out on top. while he didn't make a decision on handing out his cleats -- hanging up his cleats just yet, he did say he might be drinking a few beers. >> you know, i'll take some time to reflect. i got a couple priorities first. i want to go kiss my wife and my kids. i want to go, you know, hug my family. i'm going to drink a lot of budweiser tonight, tracy. i promise you that. i'm going to take care of those things first.
a comment worth at least $5 million for 30 seconds. we're going to talk a lot more about the game. to the markets. if you're just waking up. look out below. we are facing red arrows this morning even after the declines we saw on friday. you'll see right now the dow futures are down by about 173 points below fair value. this morning down 240 points so this is an improvement. the s&p 500 down 20 points, nasdaq off by 72. in europe the same story. dax down 2.5%. this is because of what's been happening with crude this morning. we're following, being led around by the nose by what's happening in the oil markets. wti down by over 2.5% a drop of 79 cents to $30.10 a barrel. the currency markets. the dollar has been under
pressure recently but is up against the euro at 111-22. down against the yen. gold prices have been on fire lately. up another $18.70 today. $1,176.30 an ounce. other headlines of the morning. ford planning to build a plant in mexico and sharply increase factory output from the country. "wall street journal" citing people briefed on that volkswagen offering compensation from the owners of diesel vehicles allowing an illegal amount of emissions. vw has not decided whether owners will be offered cash, car buy-backs or replacement cars. let's see what form that takes. the greek yogurt making says it's rejected an offer from others after receiving bids from receiving several companies last year. it reportedly rejected the
beverage giant's offer because the firm was looking for a majority stake and it was interested in selling a minority stake. stocks off a steep decline. investors looking ahead to more earnings. detail data and fed speak. the chief equity strategist at citi joins us. tobias, do you have any faith in the super bowl indicator? it says that if an old afc team wins, denver, that we're in for a rough year. >> i get very queasy about these indicators. they don't focus on earnings and valuation characteristics. i'm hockey fan besides. >> what do you think will happen? >> we think markets will provide a positive return. investors are probably overly focused on oil and the expectivity to the high-yield
markets. energy is probably 2% or so of earnings today. it represents 7% of the s&p 500 and it doesn't dominate. when we take out, for example, energy just on the earnings that we've seen so far, earnings are up about 2% on the fourth quarter. revenue trends have been hammered by the energy drives down 40% as well as the fact that the dollar is stronger. as the dollar tapers off it can give you a better bid. >> jim, i know you think this is an over reaction in the markets but why do you think the markets are so shaky here? >> firstly, becky, maybe the super bowl indicator is that defense will play in markets as well as in the super bowl. but i do think clearly -- clearly the market is reacting today to the correlation trade. there is no fundamental reason why weaker oil means weaker equities, the amount of short-term trading around it is
such that with high natural volatility in markets it's driving the market down. i still think it's an opportunity. the earnings season was pretty bad for energy, metals, materials stocks, manufacturing even, but it wasn't so bad for the rest of the economy, which is the bulk of earnings. i still think that the u.s. equity markets a buy on set-backs market. you probably ought to be selling on strength. >> jim, it's not just oil prices that have investors so unnerved. it's that the fed could potentially raise rates although not as much of a concern as two weeks ago. also china, the slowdown there. there are so many issues, not to mention the unrest in the middle east that have people on edge. >> yes, a lot of things, becky, are creating that volatility. but one has to really look through as to which of them become truly fundamental.
and, you know, the points you mention like china, like the fed raising rates, they could slow growth a bit and hurt companies a bit if they go wrong. i don't think the fed is going to raise rates rapidly unless the economy is clearly continuing to grow. my expectation for this year is that the fed funds rate might be 50 to 75 basis points at the end of the year. i think the dot plot that people thought there was at the turn of the year was and is frankly nonsense. so rates will stay lower for longer. if the fed acts sensibly on policy, that shouldn't destabilize things. china is a relatively small trading partner. for the u.s. it shouldn't affect things too much though it does affect sentiment and clearly creates a correlation trade. we talked about china, oil, all this stuff, as if u.s. companies are fine. that's the sort of prevailing view. maybe this is a contra
indicator. i do not know if you think this headline means anything. the journal. big firms hit break as profits slump. more importantly they talk about cutting 14,000 jobs. you have quotes in here from real ceos who run operating businesses talk about how anxious and nervous they are. >> i think there is a feedback loop issue. this is what the fed cares about. i don't think they're worrying about if an investor loses money or a hedge fund drops x percent of their portfolio. they care about the feedback effect. do ceos look at the stock price and say something is wrong, let eighths hold off that decision and you get a self-fulfilling prophecy. the fed will be very gradual. they've said this at least a hundred times. data dependent. they'll watch and suggest, we're not going to push you over the cliff. on the other hand, at the core of it, business is still pretty good. i mean, consumer spending is
still strong. even capital spending where everybody keeps beating up on it. it hit records in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, outpacing buy-backs and even 2015 outpacing buy backs. >> this is the negative feedback loop we've been living with for six or seven years. people say it's part of the reason that we can't break out of 2% growth. >> the sentiment out there is horrible amongst the corporate world and horrible in the market world. it's different than going into '08 when we had problems. the model is showing worse levels today of fear and panic than early in '09 when we were worried about sitting on the brink of depression. when you're sitting at those levels you have 95% probability that the markets are higher in a year's time. i go with those statistics and not what everybody is worried about in the moment. >> jim, you mentioned you think playing defense would be what saves investors this year.
what do you mean by that and what sectors and stocks are you talking about? >> i think the headline andrew mentioned is quite illuminating. what it says is global companies are suffering because outside the u.s. things aren't so good and because the dollar is strong. that's my clue on stock selection. i think it's a matter of stick to domestic u.s. earnings as far as possible. in other words, defend against some of the global uncertainties you mentioned. and that small and mid caps in particular, domestic earnings, are probably going to be the way to play it this year. i don't think that this is going to be a broad-based advance of the global companies. so it's a kind of a cautious buy on setbacks with quite a lot of vigilance. >> jim and tobias, thank you for being here. >> thank you. coming up -- thanks so much. when we return, big question this morning, is there a rift at the world's largest hedge fund? the "wall street journal" reporting bridgewater ray daleo
is at odds. plus, the scuffle in new hampshire. the claws coming out. the candidates reaching crunch time. we check out the showdown in the granite stage and who has the edge. "squawk box" coming back in a moment. now what? how will you keep up with the new demands of today's digital economy? the fact is: some believe they won't need a traditional bank down the road, so at cognizant, we're helping banking and financial services companies think digital, be untraditional, and reimagine what the bank of the future can be. our clients can now leverage customer intelligence to predict their financial needs and provide more contextualized products and services. we're creating new platforms across channels so customers can effortlessly invest, borrow, lend, transact-wherever-whenever they choose. and we're digitizing the way banks run,
check out the futures this morning. if you thought your hangover was bad from the super bowl. dow futures down by close to 200 points. s&p futures off by 23. nasdaq down by 79. we're watching shares of apollo education group, the operator of the university of phoenix online college. company will be taken private at a transaction valued at $9.50 a share. the funds are associated with the unrelated but similarly named apollo global management. the "wall street journal" out with a story that everybody has been talking about. ray dalio apparently in an internal scuffle with the fund's heir apparent, greg jensen. dalio and jensen calling for a vote on each other's conduct literally using ipads and iphones where they would vote against each other. according to the "journal" it's a crazy story and amazing story. we'll talk to the author in a minute. both parties did come out with a
comment. spoke to ray dalio last night. he says the article is a mischaracterization of what is going on as a part of my transition process we're trying to determine the proper mix of responsibilities among our executive team. we don't want bridgewater to be dependent on any one person or a couple people and we're working on striking the right balance between greg managing the investments as cio and managing the business as ceo. jensen saying the story is getting blown out of proportion. we're both committed to bridgewater and we've had many disagreements and have a process for handling them. that's what we were talking about. both of us believe the process is working well. so is there a major rift building at bridgewater or just another example of the firm's radical transparency. joining us now is the writer of the piece making the waves. rod copeland is here from the "wall street journal." what's going on? >> bridgewater is by far the world's most successful, largest hedge fund. very recently the founder, ray
dalio, a billionaire and his heir-apparent greg jensen called for competing votes. ray asked a small number of people at the firm to vote on whether greg has, quote, integrity and greg asked the same number of people whether ray was sticking to his promised transition plan to leave greg as head of the firm. >> the big question is, does it matter in that if greg jensen -- most people don't know who he is. whether he stays at the ceo or remains as the cio and whether he has both of those positions is what's at issue here? >> it's larger than that. greg is asking whether ray is sticking to the larger contours of the plan which is to step back and give up ownership and control of the firm. he's still five years away from that. >> we talked with ray a lot over the years about radical transparency. we have video to show about this particular issue and how they approach this at the firm.
here is ray from the dealbook conference in 2014. >> i think over the next ten years equities will have about a 4% return. as you lower the expected return and you do not lower the expected risk of equities, increasingly there is a movement more to cash. so as you have a greater appreciation in the price because of that, you have less wealth effect, and each increment of wealth effect has less impact on spending. federal reserve will not be able to raise interest rates -- >> we just showed the wrong film. we apologize for that. back to the larger issue, which is to say this radical transparency, do you think it changes the culture of the firm? that's the whole thing, right? part of the firm is the idea that they tell you you're awful to your face and that there isn't a passive-aggressive thing that goes on frankly in most workplaces. >> no doubt that part of what makes bridgewater successful is the extremely open process, and
no doubt they disagree about a lot of things all day, every day. there is no doubt that ray has never called for a vote like this about greg. these are the two most important people in the most important hedge firm in history. >> seems like ray was upset because he thought greg was talking about him, not to his face, saying things to other people that he didn't say to his face. >> exactly. at bridgewater you have to say what you mean to the person's face or make it available for them on recording and make it transparent. >> 200 principles. he feels strongly about. one is that any manager who talks about an underling when they are not there is a slimy weasel. >> exactly. >> ray is not an underling of greg's but he feels like it was a violation of that? >> at bridgewater you hold ray and greg accountable for these things. it was not just 210 static principles. there are ipad apps and means of rating, if we were at
bridgewater right now we'd have our ipads out and you would be rating me right now. if you didn't like what i was saying you could turn the dial. >> it's radical. we've spoken with him. he says you have to buy into this culture in order to make it work. it's hard to imagine in most workplaces. >> when ray says it's a mischaracterization and greg say it's blown out of control. is that a spin job? >> we stick by the facts of the story and they've not disputed the facts of the story. >> what do you think happens? >> i don't know. there's still five years to go. >> back to the larger point, which is does greg jensen, to the extent you believe he is pivotal to this and ray dalio, are they both there in five years? >> it's hard to imagine bridgewater without ray dalio entirely. however, will his flophilosophy outlast him at the firm and be there in 20 years is the real question. >> thank you. when we come back, a surprise for super bowl viewers
courtesy of j.j. abrams, the store wars director debuting the first official look at the new movie. that story is next. ♪ thanks. ♪ [ male announcer ] fedex® has solutions to enable global commerce that can help your company grow steadily and quickly. great job. (mandarin) ♪ cut it out. >>see you tomorrow. ♪
matt damon reprising his role as jason bourn. due to hit the big screen an july 29th. if the trailer is any idea of what's going on i'm excited already. >> were the kids excited about it? >> i am psyched. it's a crazy thing in vegas. right on the strip. >> good scene! the trailer getting a bunch of buzz today. another one came from paramount. ten cloverfield lane. they're talking about some crisis that is forcing them underground but in a really creepy way. could be a monster, could be aliens. and of course since it's a j.j. abrams production anything is possible in the new thriller. also, talk that it can be a spinoff or sequel to clover
field. is there an end to twitter as we know it? that was the question users had been asking over the weekend. the hash tag r.i.p. twitter becoming one of the top trending u.s. items on social media. this following buzz at buzz feed saying twitter plans to turn your time line upside down and reorder tweets to prioritize viewers people think they want. right now they're listed kroj cron logically. the ceo throwing water on the fire of that. he said we don't plan. shares dropping 45% in the last three months. some analysts had been hoping that they were going to put the algorithm into place because there was a view that it would make twitter easier to use and surf the best content. news people, we love the
chronological but others just like to see the highlights. >> this is the problem for twitter, though, they face part of the audience that wants them to change and change substantially, including the analyst community and the other part of the audience who doesn't like change and wants things to go on the way they are. >> could it be an opt-in thing? could you choose i only want chronologic? if you're on the flip side and delivering the news you want people to read krchronologicall coming up, the big collapse. crude oil related companies getting caught in the down draft. take a look at the price of crude. wti at $30.05. back in a moment. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities.
hasbro. earned $1.39 for the latest quarter, beating the expectations by nine cents. the company raised its quarterly dividend to 51 cents a share. more on that in a few minutes. another stock to watch, gopro. battered last week after the latest earnings report and forecast. it's rebounding this morning on news it has signed a patent licensing deal with microsoft. that agreement allows microsoft to use gopro's file storage technology. while most people were watching the super bowl this weekend, at least some of you went to the movies. kung fu panda 3 topping the box office. it took in $21 million in north american ticket sales. gasoline prices dropping over the past two weeks. a survey saying it's the lowest level in seven years. the cheapest gas on average found in tulsa. $1.34. the highest in l.a. where regular averages $2.62 a gallon.
oil prices, as we said, are lower and morgan brennen joins us now. she has a closer look at what's going on in the sector. >> as oil stays lower for longer the carnage is spreading. since its peak in june 2014 crude has fallen over 70%. since then the s&p energy sector shed $822 billion or nearly 43% in market cap of value. this may only get worse. a sectors capital spending expected to be $522 billion globally this year. that's the lowest level in six years. it is the first time we've seen two straight back-to-back declines annually since 1986. more companies slashing dividends, conco phillips and noble energy. defaults and bankruptcies starting to mount. 42 north american oil and gas companies owing $17 billion in
debt filed for bankruptcy in 2016. samsung resources. wolf research warns up to a third could restructure by mid 2017 if prices stay this low. one name that could be next linn energy. one of the master limited partnership. they say they're reviewing strategic alternatives. >> thank you, morgan. thank you for helping us tee up the next conversation. the collapse in crude moving the ratings agencies to cut outlooks. standard & poor's down grading 13 oil companies and moody's placing 20 under down grade perspective. dick evans. energy loans make up 15% of the total loan portfolio. many are considered problem
credits. up from 7% from last quarter. good morning. >> good morning. >> maybe bad morning. >> it's a good morning. good morning for cullen frost. >> because? given what we just talked about? >> it is. obviously it's not our first rodeo. we have been doing this for a while, and the real secret to it, i believe, is knowing your customers, dealing with them. as we -- as i sat here a year ago, i thought $37 was going to take care of us. now we're doing a stress test at $28. none of us know where oil will go. but we have been working with our customers. they're not over leveraged. if they were, they've already dealt with it. they've gone to the markets. and so you have to get ahead of the curve. >> dare i say that a stress test at 28 doesn't seem -- it's clearly in stress but on a relative basis, it's only two bucks less than where we are today. shouldn't the stress test be closer to $20?
people are talking about it crossing that benchmark. >> they're talking about anything. they're also talking it could go up. i'm comfortable with where it is. the eagleford starts to drop off, it will be about 70,000 barrels a day and work down. it hit a peak of a million and a half barrels. i think you'll see it balance out. >> dick, i know it's not in your stress testing but what are you forecasting over the next three years what the average price of oil will be? >> what we did with that is that it won't go over 40 from a stress standpoint out to 2020. >> out to 2020. >> right. >> in that scenario, what happens? >> well, in that scenario cullen/frost is fine. we continue to move through. we know that the leverage is what kills a company. >> sure. >> and those, particularly with the downgrades you just talked
about, it's going to be hard to get to the markets. >> right. >> what can you tell us just about local business, what you see in terms of the loans you're making now and how this has impacted the local economy? >> everybody talks about how many energy loans have we got. we got 85% diversified economy. texas grew jobs 1.4% last year. it is a diversified economy. and i see great opportunities. i am excited about the future. not depressed about it. >> you're in texas. do you put yourself in a different category than this headline? north dakota has empty feeling as prices fall? just what's happened locally there. >> i haven't been to north dakota but there is a lot of difference between north dakota and texas. you're talking about a strong, diversified economy. austin and -- austin, texas, and dallas, texas, don't even know that oil has gone down. that economy is that diversified. even houston, where you have a
headquarters. it's flat to up slightly. >> i have been surprised to hear things like united. when they complained -- united or american? one of the airlines said in their earnings that the reason they hadn't done better is one of the hubs in houston was impacted by fewer travellers going to houston. it shocks me to hear an airline say that when you know costs have gone down so substantially that you think it would be nothing but a benefit. >> no doubt we've slowed. we used to grow 1% and have for years and decades faster than the united states. now -- still everybody thought we would fall off in the gulf of mexico. we grew jobs 1.4%. >> question on default rates. your sense -- whatever you built into the model, how many of these companies get taken over in the next year or two, 18 months out? is it dependent on that, or is there restructuring going on? >> at cullen/frost there will be little change. our customers who we know deeply -- we're not talking about a company that i don't know management and dealing
directly with management and involved with them. we know that deeply. they have -- they'll sell part of their company. they'll sell some production. and they'll move forward. there is no question, at $30 the margins are thin, thin. >> they don't pump their way out of this. some do have to sell. >> some have to sell all or parts. but in our particular case, 99% of that has been done. >> dick, last week the earnings came in and it was a little weaker than the street had been expecting. what did they miss? >> for cullen/frost? >> yes. >> last year in '14 was our best year in 148 years. we made a million dollars more than last year but, yes, we missed expectations. we put $34 million in the reserve. >> right. >> but $22 million of it was more future possibilities of
down grey downgrades in the energy portfolio. >> you being conservative with that? >> we are. >> dick, great to see you. glad you're so cheerful. rocking in the granite state. the candidates out in full force in new hampshire as they make the last-minute push before tomorrow's primary. find out who has the edge next. the futures down sharply this morning. we'll find out how bullish professor jeremy segal is about the markets, coming up at 8:00 eastern time. dow futures down by almost 200 points. s&p down 23 and nasdaq off by 81. "squawk box" will be right back.
s&p futures off 24. nasdaq down 83. pressure is on in new hampshire. donald trump fighting for the number one position in the gop race. in the latest nbc/"wall street journal" poll donald trump is still leading by double digit numbers at 30%. marco rubio trails behind in second at 17%. joining us this morning to talk about what is ahead for decision 2016, vin weber, a former u.s. congressman from minnesota who is no stranger to advising presidential campaigns. jennifer granholm, the former governor of michigan. welcome to you both. van, let's talk about the debate this weekend and what you think happened. chris christie went after marco rubio. does it affect rubio in the election? >> i think the whole attitude of the republicans toward the race changed a lot this weekend. going into the weekend there was a palpable desire on the part of the republicans i talked to to narrow the field a lot and establish a clear challenger to
cruz and trump and try to get the thing over with quickly. i think it changed dramatically with governor christie's basic indictment of senator rubio on saturday night. there is -- people are hitting the brakes saying, let's not rush to judgment. let's get this right. there is a greater emphasis on experience. that's good for governor kasich and bush, who i am supporting, by the way. i would be very surprised if we saw the field narrowing much until well after south carolina. that's not the way i felt on friday. >> is that because people looked at this and thought rubio stumbled in this situation or just because people say, you know, maybe we need to give some of the other candidates longer consideration? >> i think a little bit of both. rubio did well in iowa. there was a sort of a sense of, well, this is the guy to challenge trump and cruz. he went into the debate, and he had an opportunity to really prove that he could stand up under the pressure. unfortunately, i think senator rubio is a good guy but he didn't handle it well.
people are saying, whoa, we have to wait and see. we know we have other candidates who have been tested. let's see what happens in the new hampshire primary and south carolina. >> van, it's interesting. you said you think this is good for governors like governor kasich and like jeb bush, you didn't mention chris christie, who was the one who actually took the attack. >> the think the jury is out on that. chris christie did a masterful job. you can see he is a former prosecutor. but very often in these kinds of situations the person doing the attacking is not the beneficiary. he may have done some damage to senator rubio. we have to see yet if he benefits from it or if third parties benefit from it. i think governor bush and kasich are probably in the best positions to benefit from this. >> governor granholm, the democrats have certainly benefited from this being such a noisy and crowded republican race. to van's point, where do you
take it from somebody sitting on the other side of the aisle? >> what's interesting about this is that new hampshire has a large swath of independent he voters. so there has been some discussion, do they go on the democratic side or on the republican side. i think, after this weekend, because of what vin is saying, there may be a lot of republican voters who might have chosen to vote on the democratic side but may plant want to play on the republican side. it will be interesting to see how it winds out for them. >> do you think that's good news for bernie sanders or hillary clinton? >> i think it benefits hillary clinton a little bit. she has an upward struggle in new hampshire as we know. >> a huge upward struggle. what happens in sanders walks out of this the winner? what does it mean for the democratic party to determine who the front runner is. >> he is a likely winner because of vermont's positions next to new hampshire. >> sanders himself said you
can't give it that reason, that he's come from behind. he pointed out that hillary clinton won that state in 2008. >> she did. but he is known here. he shares the media market here. bottom line is he is ahead here, and he's likely to come out the winner. the question is what's the margin and can she work for every single vote. i am a hillary clinton supporter, and i know her people are herein o t on the ground fi for every vote here. then they go to nevada and south carolina. and that will be, i think, a real interesting thing to see how much bernie sanders can move coalitions of color, because these obviously, iowa and new hampshire, not states that are very diverse demographically. what do you make of the battle around wall street and the way bernie has to some degree forced hillary more left and whether you think that's really where she is or if she actually wins the nomination she comes back closer to the center. i ask because we're a business
network and a lot of people on wall street watch this. >> sure. i do think -- and i think a lot of your viewers would recognize that things were out of control and that there is need to be some reasonable rules of the road that does not allow the same kind of shenanigans that occurred before the meltdown, right? i would assume everybody agrees to some extent on that. when bernie sanders attacks her for being too close to wall street because she has accepted speaking fees or contributions, the implication in that is that she is going to do wall street's bidding. she will not do wall street's bidding. she comes from new york, yes, but she'll be the first to say she went to wall street to say, clean up your act. even though she has received contributions, in exchange for the contributions you might want to see, if you were giving a contribution and you're from wall street, policy that was sort of soft. but that's not what her policy is. she too is talking about attacks on high-frequency trades.
she too is talking about beefing up dodd-frank and reducing risk by attaching fees to super-risky behavior, regulating the shadow banking sector. paul krugman, as some have noted on this channel, said that her plan is actually more robust than his. there is not a quid pro quo there. if you expected a return on investment or donating to her you might get a negative return. she'll be tough on wall street. >> vin, we talked a lot about the republican establishment candidates, but we haven't mentioned the frontrunner, that's donald trump. he is ahead by leaps and bounds when it comes to the new hampshire primary polls and what we've seen there. what are the odds you think that donald trump is the nominee? >> we've not yet seen him really damaged, at least in the context of the new hampshire primary. he didn't win in iowa, and that -- a lot of republicans in the so-called establishment lane breathed a sigh of relief. >> he himself pointed out he
thinks because cruz took carson's votes. he think he would have won otherwise. >> he lost. be that as it may, nobody has really done much damage to donald trump. governor bush is the only one who is taking him on fairly systematically. i think he won the argument with donald trump about eminent domain in the debate saturday night. he is waltzing through this unscathed. at some point the debate has to be not between christie and rubio or rubio and bush. it has to be between trump and the rest of the field. >> quickly on that. what's interesting about that, the results from new hampshire showing how much of a margin he comes out with. trump came out of the debates saying, hey, i don't think that the ground game here is as important as the debates. so he didn't have a very good ground game in iowa. from that you can infer that his
ground game here is not that robust. maybe he feels like he doesn't have to invest that much in it because he is so far ahead. we'll see what his margin looks like coming out of new hampshire. >> governor granholm and vin, thank you for joining us today. >> thank you. coming up when we return, "the force awakens" with hasbro. their earnings moments ago. merger rumors. find out if "star wars" is paying off for the toy maker. futures are down. the dow looking like it opened off 230 points down and oil under $30 a barrel again. "squawk box" returns with all that in just a moment. ♪ frank abagnale. convicted felon and con man. that was a long time ago. you know, they made a movie about it. you were shown to be quite skilled at fraud. times change. now i help catch the bad guys. me too. i help banks detect fraud by applying cognitive analytics to public financial records and social media.
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don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. >> welcome back to "squawk box." the trailer for "captain america civil war" one of several big movie hero movies getting spots during the big game. that will mean more superhero toys. a little segue into hasbro. beat on the top and bottom lines this morning. raised its dividend. results helped by strong sales of "star wars" and "jurassic park" themed toys.
joined by piperaft piperafterry analyst. >> the big question is the sustainability. in the press release the ceo makes a comment about sustainability and momentum into 2016. so adding to that collection of light sabres and transformers and dinosaurs from 2015 we get a little bit of magic wands with the disney princess business in 2016. stainability is certainly there. also, if you look into 2017 the lineup looks even more robust. setting up for a nice big cycle over the next couple years. >> in terms of comps, what comes in '17 to push the needle even farther? >> we know there is another "star wars" movie. things are speculated. people are anticipating another "frozen" movie. with hasbro having the disney
princess license they'll reap some of those benefits. another "transformers" movie at some point. that's a wholly-owned property. there has been chatter about a movie under the my little pony business. that could be interesting. >> long on speculation in terms of the m&a world, deal making around what hasbro ultimately wants to do. what it wants to be, whether it wants to be a toy maker or a media company. obviously there were talks that went south last year in part because disney was upset about it. do you think that they're ultimately an independent company? >> i do. i think what's interesting is, if you look back over the last decade, hasbro has made two distinct strategy changes. ten years ago they started exiting vertical manufacturing. so they got out of the production business and started thinking about themselves more as a brand management company. about five years ago they made a distinct right turn, a pivot in the strategy, to be more about story-telling. that really included investments
in things like content, platforms, processes around animation and story-telling. that's been a strategic distinction for hasbro. whether they want to look more like a media company or behave more like a media company. they realize children today are influenced by the stories they see. so that convergence factor is becoming even more pronounced in the businesses they operate in. >> hasbro has wanted to be a buyer in the past. could you see them as a seller? could you see a company like disney saying, why am i giving it all away. they get huge licensing fees but why not own this. >> the question around ownership for a media company is while licensing fees create a hedge and monetization curve for the big-brand assets, it would be margin dilutive.
i think from an economic perspective it would be a bit more challenging for a media company to buy into a brand management company and ultimately a toy production company. >> stephanie, thank you. great to see you this morning. >> thank you. coming up the bulls, the bears and the bull. professor jeremy segal for fidelity. and jurrien timmer gets us ready for a new week. also, which moments of the big game do viewers need to see again and again? was it a commercial, the halftime show or one of the big plays of the night? that's coming up in the next hour of "squawk box." know your financial plan
pnc investments financial advisor, know you can get help staying on track for the future you've always wanted. breaking market news. stocks slammed. oil prices plunging. a monday market selloff amid global growth concerns. warning signs. hedge funds are betting on big cracks in am so of the safest areas of the bond market. we're going to ask if this means more trouble ahead. new this morning, the most watched and rewatched super bowl ads. >> monkey baby. >> find out if your favorites made the cut as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now.
>> ♪ girls hallelujah ♪ because uptown funk going to give it to you ♪ >> live from new york city, this is "squawk box." ♪ saturday night and we in the spot, don't believe me just watch ♪ welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. this is cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm rebecca quick along with andrew ross sorkin. joe is off. less than 90 minutes away from the opening bell. a rough morning after the declines in the market on friday. the dow futures this morning are indicated down by close to 240 points below fair value. s&p futures down by 28. nasdaq by 91. in europe at this hour a lot of the pain started there and has gotten worse. dax in germany down 3%. cac in france almost there. italy down by 3%. fsse down over 2%. most of asia closed for the lunar new year holiday.
you don't get bad prices out of china to add to this. that's the good news. crude oil prices. a lot of what's happening has started in the energy fields. wti down by over 4% this morning. it's fallen back below $30 a barrel at $29.61. >> tech stocks today continue to get slammed. check out the so-called fang stocks. you're looking at them. facebook down 3%. amazon down 3%. netflix almost 4% down. alphabet, euphemism for google at least in my mind. a little off at 2%. it's hard for me. every time i see alphabet i get confused. sure to be buzz at the office today about the broncos beating the panthers to win super bowl 50. could denver's win mean a loss for wall street. the answer is yes. if you believe the super bowl indicator. it predicts that when an afc team wins stocks will end the
year in the red. nothing scientific about it but it's been right, if you can believe it, 81% of the time. last year the new england patriots won the super bowl and the s&p 500 ended the year down .7%. a few stocks on the move. hasbro earnings and revenue both topping expectations. results helped by a strong holiday demand for toys based on the star wars and jurassic park movies. diamond off shore beating on the top and bottom lines but dealing with effects of plummeting oil prices. discontinued the quarterly dividend in order to preserve cash. that stock is up about 10 cents. apollo education group will be taken private in a $1.1 billion cash transaction. it's worth $9.50 a share. pepsico has been rebuffed in its bid to buy a majority stake in yogurt maker chobani. it says it's only interested in selling a minority stake in the
company. that bogged down the talks. gopro saw its stock slammed last week after the latest earnings and yearly forecast. the rebound coming on news it has signed a patent licensing agreement with microsoft which will use gopro's file storage technology. that stock moving this morning. biotech stocks on watch. an article saying both stocks could jump 30%. baron saying a recent selloff in the biotech sector has created buying opportunities. to the macro picture. friday's jobs report potentially putting a marked rate hike on the table for the fed. steve leishman is here with more on the story. >> i would love to sit here with the market under pressure and say it's off the table. i can't do it given what happened last week with the lower unemployment rate and the wage growth. we begin the march to the march
meeting. while the market has baked out a possibility of a rate hike. keep the chance on the table. a friend of squawk says this about the fed. we'd be confident abandoning any hope of a march rate hike if the january employment report had been just about the payroll numbers. i want to show you the events. the road to a march hike. as becky said, a lot has to go right. we start the week with the yellen testimony. i am interested. does she own the rate hikes or come off in the middle here? are we on the path of norm normalization or not? >> do you mean are we right in moving? >> that's the direction of the fed. does she keep to the general gist of the committee, which is what it was. >> i would be surprised. >> if she backs off? >> my guess is her hope is to get through this saying as little as possible. because they're not sure where things are headed. >> it may be. you have two days of testimony. on the plus side congress
doesn't often ask intelligent monetary questions. i don't know whether they're not capable or they're not interested. the "wall street journal" headline big firms hit brakes as profit slumps. this is real economy stuff. >> it is. but how consequential is it for fed and fed policy? >> that's the question. >> if the results of that, andrew, is one of the reasons for the low profits is higher wages. guys, i don't know if you want to go through the whole road already -- that's fine, becky. appreciate the interruption. cpi february 19th. roll through this. some of the things that have to go right. there is another jobs report march 1st. if we keep going down, a lower forehandle on the jobs report and higher wages. ecb meets again. that's a big day. we have to be ready for that day. they promise more stimulus. >> if they do it makes it harder to raise rates because of what's going to happen to the dollar. >> markets have to stabilize and
china has to stabilize. the last one. it's an awesome reveal. you see it's a wall. i want to knshow you one other chart. goldman disagrees. a hike in march is unlikely they say. further hikes in june and beyond. one other chart. average hour of the wages. we haven't put together two strong ones in a row. when it pops above trends it seems to pop back down. in february, if we put together the jobs report. stan fisher who is right of center. more hawkish. john williams from the san francisco fed, they'll feel we did the right thing in december and should keep going and at least not take it off the table for the rest of the year. >> meaning if you see strong wage growth for two months in a row it means that's the most likely path to higher inflation and the signs that things -- you need higher rates. >> they still believe in the phillips curve, the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. you have to remember where the
fed thinks it is, right? they see the neutral rate at zero and they're below it. so they still feel like 25, 50, 75 basis points keeps them below the neutral rate and therefore still stimulative to the economy. >> all right. that makes sense. steve, thank you. >> my pleasure. joining us right now is jeremy segal, professor of finance at u-penn's wharton school of business and jurrien timmer. let me start with you with the case steve laid out, the idea that the market is looking at things right now. are they watching oil prices more closely or thinking, what's the fed going to do next? which is more important? >> the market has priced out the likelihood of a march hike. i mean, i think at this point the odds are like 12% or 11%. it's interesting, over the last month there has been some real very abrupt re-rating of what the market thinks the u.s. economy is going through, and
therefore the fed cycle. earnings expectations for the next couple of quarters have really come down. that used to be an energy story, and now it seems to be a broader story because the energy earnings are still coming down but the ex-energy earnings estimates, a month ago the numbers for the first quarter were expected to be plus 2.5. as of last friday they were down 2, for the second quarter, went from plus 5 to plus 2. the fed funds futures curve has taken out almost all of the rate hikes that were priced in just a month ago. we're -- at this point the fed may not go till september. who knows. >> we're looking at the market down another 240 points potentially this morning after all the weakness of last week, especially friday. if steve is right, if janet yellen is much more cautious on things, if she does not take a rate hike off the table, what happens at that point? how does the market react? if you have already figured that she is not going to raise in
march and your mind changes this week after her testimony on wednesday and thursday, what do you look at for the markets after that? >> we're in the tug of war between china being on one ends of the policy spectrum and the u.s. on the other and really most of the world on the other side of the sector from the u.s. china has just reported their fx reserves. global fx reserves down one trillion dollars from the highs set a year or year and a half ago. against that backdrop -- that's a form of tightening, right? so i think, if -- if the fed puts march squarely on the table at this point, that would be seen as a -- basically a policy error because the market is not ready for that. >> jeremy, let's talk about where you see things headed. do you think it will take us longer to get to 18,000 or 20,000 for the dow? >> let me admit, i was far too bullish last december.
but i also said then that it depended on oil, on commodities stabilizing. we see what's happening today. oil again falling below $30. there is a dual threat of deflation, which is very scary for the market, not only from commodities. as jurrien noted, a loss of chinese reserves. will they devalue the yuan. because that's one of the reasons money is escaping from china, the fear of devaluation. that's another wave of deflation coming out of asia that could affect the other economies, and then you say, my god, is there -- can the central banks counteract all these deflationary forces? so that's clearly -- we didn't stop the deflationary forces from commodities. i think china is much more worrisome than it was last year. and that's -- that's really
spooking the markets right now. and yeah, i really understand why they're so worried and why they are down from where they were just two months ago. >> steve, deflation is a huge issue that a lot of people are talking about. i tell you, i have also talked to some hedge fund managers recently who have pointed out that maybe the black swan event is inflation. can you worry about both these things at the same time? how does the central bank deal with something like that? >> absolutely you can. the capacity of the market to deal with both problems at once is -- they have that capacity. the trouble you have is that two things are expected to roll off. the effect of lower oil prices in the past, in other words, we don't keep going down, and also the dollar, the effect of the dollar. the dollar has reversed course. so that deflationary impulse is going away. yes, you could have this problem where remember the duality we're talking about -- that jeremy is talking about is that you have the market in turmoil but you don't have the volatility in the real economy right now. >> jeremy, your thoughts on that? >> the markets look forward, and
the fed is not meeting its target. i mean, i would not overreact to one month's blip in wages. you know, there's a lot -- we had lower than expected for the month of december. i don't see any inflationary forces out there, you know, that are worrisome. i do admit the unemployment rate cannot keep on going down. i mean, 4.9 is a lower end of their range. some of the more optimistic models say it's 4.5. at the rate we're going down in unemployment that will be reached by the summer. so there is still a worry out there that the fed might raise. again, the deflationary forces from asia, from china, from commodities are really in the presence of the debt that so many of these energy and other companies have is really the threat that i think is causing the market turmoil right now.
we need some stability there, some stability of the yuan that we feel that they can hold the current level. i think before we're going to see a meaningful recovery in stock prices. >> would you be a stocks buyer? >> i would stick with that plan even though the markets are weak and maybe going down a little further. you want to stick with the plan and accumulate a portfolio. if you were all in cash and are you -- is this the time to put it all in, then, you know, the answer is no. i would sort of leg in. you never know where the bottom will be. maybe we already hit it. maybe it's still out in the future. certainly, you know, if you are an investor you want to buy when the market is down because you're locking in a more attractive cost basis. i certainly don't want to put everything in one basket. >> professor siegel?
>> that was a perfect answer. in the long run you're going to be rewarded bearishness now. the levels are reasonable. i don't think interest rates are going to go up. will there be more short-term volatility? yeah, i think so. so, again, legging in, dollar cost averaging. the long run, i think, is certainly still going to be very, very positive here but short run i see volatility here. >> jeremy and jurrien, thank you. 2015 a record-breaking year for m&a. will deals be hurt in 2016? first, look at where oil is trading at this hour. we're now under 30 bucks. $29.90. stick with us. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. first in business worldwide. ♪
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$29.83. brent off by about 2.5% to $33.20. that's putting a lot of pressure on the equity futures this morning. right now the dow futures are 230 points below fair value. s&p opening down 27 points and the nasdaq off by 88 points. the two-year note, the yield hitting the lowest level since october 27. a yield of 6.68%. a record-breaking year for m&a. deals announced this year according to data provider. the question is could the mega-deal trend falter as we continue into 2016 amid all the volatility, interest rates, regulatory challenges and whether this poses a triple threat to the market. joining us with more than that is matt forzio. head of m&a strategy at links. you're an interesting
bellwether, you can see inside the deal pipeline because people use your service to talk about the deals they're about to be doing. >> the due diligence phase is typically six months before you talk about the deals announced on the show. >> tell us what's in the data room? >> in terms of specifics i can't. but i can tell you that the m&a market continues to grow. we have a midpoint prediction of about 4% growth for the first half of 2016. not quite as robust growth as we saw last year. still a growing market. europe is leading the way. north america off the record highs is relatively flat. >> are you looking, by the way -- i don't know if you can figure this out from what's going on inside the virtual data rooms -- just number of physical deals or the volume, the total size of the transactions, the mega-deals? >> until the deals are actually announced we don't know the actual value of the deals. we have a sense based on the client base, more the bulge
racket firms leading some of the deals is an indicator of larger deals. some of the mega-deals led by the larger banks. in truth we focus more on the number of deals. that's really an indicator for most deal makers and investors of what's going on. >> how actively does it switch? is there a sense that they could be working on them now in hopes of getting across the finish line but if the market gets more volatile they say, we're going to press the pause button? >> we've been producing data for six years now. even through the rough times we've actually seen the level of busted deals remain relatively the same. it's interesting, you actually get the distressed deals that pick up the slack and get executed in times where the market falls off. >> we have seen the spreads picking up at levels we haven't seen in a decade. >> what i think is happening in the market is we're seeing this
growth and companies are recognized the organic growth strategy is not enough to meet shareholder expectations. m&a is the new path forward. the way companies will grow top line and bottom line. and i think everybody sort of recognizes that. >> can we be honest. top line maybe not. bottom line maybe. >> the cost synergy is on the bottom-line acquisition. top-line growth. new products and opportunities. the pharma industry is a great example. m&a has become the new r&d. >> how much of it is an election year situation where people are thinking we have to get the deals done before the picture in washington changes. we don't know what it's going to be but we know what we're dealing with at this point. >> as part of our report we did a sentiment survey of over 600 deal makers and asked them to rank what would have the biggest effect on m&a. the election even in north america finished fourth after fears around china, oil prices and geopolitical instability. not as big of an effect as you
might think. >> industries. can you give us some? >> health care in the first half growing, exceeding growth. consumer, real estate. tech is weaker. median entertainment weaker. and energy actually picked up. i think that's some of the distress stuff working through the system. >> matt, thank you for coming in. appreciate it. when we come back, china welcomes the lunar new year. marking the beginning of the year of the monkey. we'll tell you what facebook ceo mark zuckerberg is doing to celebrate. stay tuned. "squawk box" will be right back. >> you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. ♪ ♪
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check out these pictures coming into the newsroom today. a number of cities across china displaying colorful lantern shows to welcome the chinese new year. many markets in asia closed today including hong kong. mainland china. singapore and south korea. the holiday giving mark zuckerberg a chance to practice
mandarin. here is what the facebook ceo posted to his page [ speaking foreign language ] >> appearing along with his wife and infant daughter. >> that's a cute baby. >> i saw the subtitles. that's about as far as i get. >> the super bowl this weekend from a puppy monkey baby to the politics of beer and, yes, even constipation. they covered it all. the super bowl ads scoring big with the viewers and the ones that didn't. we'll a talk about the best and worst of the bunch according to new data. that's next. as we head to a break, check out the price of oil. down 3.5%. wti below $30. $29.79 a barrel. not gold. we're talking oil. stay tuned. you' you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. first in business worldwide.
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right here on cnbc. here is what's making headlines at this hour. white house asking congress for more than $1.8 billion in emergency funding to prepare for and respond to the zika virus. gasoline prices at a 7-year low. prices falling more than 8 cents to an average $1.82 a gallon. ford set to boost production in mexico according to the "wall street journal." paper saying the auto maker will add 500,000 units of extra capacity starting in 2018. that follows the signing of a new deal with the uaw to increase its u.s. labor costs. good for the people who got the increased labor costs, bad for people who want new jobs. >> there you go. a check on the markets right now. it's been a rough morning if you are long in the markets. right now the dow futures down by 200 points below fair value. that's quite a bit of an improvement. down 240 a little bit ago.
in the european markets, same story playing out there. dax down by 2 3/4%. ftse down by close to 2%. could the corporate bond market be throwing up red flags for the markets and economy right now? the story from the "wall street journal" seems to say yes noting that hedge funds are betting against some of the safest u.s. corporate debt. the paper saying perry capital placed a one billion dollar bet against investment bonds and watching the yield between bonds and credit ratings and u.s. treasuries topped 2 percentage points last week for the first time in three years. what do amy schumer, dorito's and a battle for abouqet have in common? sara is joining us.
>> let's talk about methodology. how do you decide this. when i looked at the list i thought, i am out of step with the rest of american public. how do you measure these things? >> we use data we pull from tivo dvr boxes and analyze what's being watched most based on how many times commercials are rewound and fast forwarded. it's about engagement with the ads versus what's only viewed live. a lot of companies that report on super bowl favorites are reporting on self-reported what was your favorite? this is not actually capturing sentiment but actually seeing what's happening in the home. >> this how big is the sample s? >> 30,000 for this particular -- >> pretty big. let's talk about what they liked the most. did they rewind the commercials or the actual game more? the most watched moments were still the game. >> good to hear!
>> but the -- when you look at the top ten spots that we have, you'll see that comedy was pretty much a theme. advertisers played it safe this year. there was a light-hearted playfulness to most of the spots last year. >> is that a euphemism for boring? >> last year you had the solemn ads and the crisis with the nationwide spot. whether they chose to play it safe or light-hearted or was it the fact that, you were commenting earlier. 22 of the 44 ads were already seen online. >> that was the biggest let-down. i had seen so many of these before. it wasn't a stop and watch through the ads. >> in most recent years ads were debuted before online and sometimes even on tv. this year, though, whether it's that or advertisers playing it safe or perhaps there was so much hype around super bowl 50. the halftime show was so strong that it took a little bit of the punch out of the creative.
>> let's look at the list. we showed the top three. first was dorito's, the ultrasound where the baby grabs the dorito's. second the puppy monkey baby. and third taco bell. >> with the first two, babies and animals were always the winners of the commercials in super bowls past they take a twist on it this year and they use it in quite a different way. >> we know that a lot of these were the buick cascada number 4. pepsi's joy of dance, number 5. the marmot commercial number six. >> the angels. >> oh, the snow angels. >> snow angels and the little animal. >> if you keep looking at the list, apartments.com moving up which we talked about. i did like that. >> that was one of your favorites. >> bud light. skittles the portrait and
prugh prughpruis. what about the pop snail? >> while it may have been a favorite, it certainly was not one of the ones that was most engaged with, at least among tivo viewers. >> the jeep ad. >> yes. >> i loved the jeep ad! >> the black and white jeep ad. you would think it's sort of a moving ad. but those ads don't seem to be working in the same way that they used to be. chrysler will done those fantastic ads that got a lot of attention a few years ago. >> the jeep ad. they took out an ad on the front of usa "today." >> one of my farnts wvorites wa babies being born after the super bowl. >> we rewound that in my house. >> so did we. >> what was the ad i saw, a tom brokaw voiceover. gettysburg.
>> that was not in the top tine either. >> williamsburg. >> williamsburg, right. >> when it came to the moments in the game, what were the times that people actually said, hey, let me see that again? >> the top three moments were all at the very end. the winning touchdown and -- >> halftime. >> the replay with cam newton. >> nothing from halftime? >> the halftime show was the third most popular in history, certainly the most watched moments were with beyonce -- >> what were the first two? >> madonna and katy perry. >> it was actually beyonce. >> and bruno mars. >> madonna? what year? >> just a couple of years ago. >> katy perry was a year ago. >> yes, it was. >> i was thinking maybe michael jackson would have been up there. but nope. >> but the viewership has gone up every year. >> exactly right. >> that was back in the mid '90s maybe? >> tara, thank you for coming in
today. >> thanks for having us. coming up, the final countdown, the road to the white house runs through new hampshire this week. presidential hopefuls hitting the ground hard ahead of the primaries. take a look at the major european markets right now. red arrows across the board. dax down almost 3%. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. first in business worldwide. always obvious. ies sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.
box," everyone. the futures have been under quite a bit of pressure this morning. the dow futures down 190 points below fair value. s&p futures off 23. nasdaq off by 78. gold hitting a three-month high. up another $22.80 this morning to $1,180 an ounce. presidential hopefuls barn-storming new hampshire today ahead of tomorrow's primaries. that's where we find john harwood and larry ckudlow hangig out this morning. what did you make of the debates over the weekend? has this set rubio back at all? has it made chris christie's day? >> yes. it set marco rubio back a good bit. this is the last thing that he needed in that final debate. he was gaining some strength in the polls. he had been moved into a solid second place against donald trump, who continues to have a lead that appears to be
insurmountable. but this was a real boost to john kasich and jeb bush, who also performed well. some people polling in this race who think that jeb bush and john kasich are now in a fight for second. you have ted cruz and marco rubio fairly closely bunched after that. you also have got chris christie, he started way behind. he may not have been able to help himself but he is also getting traction in the wake of that debate. very fluid situation. we don't know with 24 hours left what new hampshire voters will hand us tomorrow night. >> i think john is basically right. it's ironic in a sense, governor christie was a real wrecking ball regarding marco rubio. but i'm not sure it helped christie so much as it helped the others, as john mentioned, like kasich and bush. probably helped donald trump also. but it is interesting to me, two things. trump is on the campaign trail yesterday. the very populist message. attacking drug companies. attacking oil companies. attacking insurance companies.
he says the whole system is basically rigged on money and campaign contributions. i personally like that message because i'm against corporate welfare and crony capitalism. so he hit pretty hard on that. the other thing, though, john kasich is pushing a positive message. you saw it yesterday on the tv shows and so forth. >> i think he's playing the jack kemp role. >> you're right. look, the economy is not great. it's pretty good in new hampshire but nationwide it's not great. the question is, what are these guys going to do about it? kasich says i am the guy talking specifics. i think, if he gets that message out today, i think john is right, he could be in play for second place. it's not out of the question. >> i want to amplify something larry said about trump going p populist. this is a state where independents can vote in either primary. i was at a ted cruz event yesterday and he said, i agree with bernie sanders on how the economy is rigged. he talked about going after
crony capitalists. doesn't agree with sanders' solutions but the point is the discontent with the economy, the lack of ability to move ahead by middle class people is being felt in both primaries and there is a cross-pollination of the rhetoric and sentiment. >> this in some sense is a battle for the independents. it is. independents will vote up here. you got people who will come up here and say, i intend to live in new hampshire and register tomorrow on the spot. i intend not to live in new hampshire. therefore, i will not vote in this primary but there is a battle for the independents. >> can we talk about the big money behind all these guys and whether the establishment money, which had been going to jeb bush, now moves to rubio, doesn't move to rubio after last night? does it get to chris christie? how does this play itself out? >> i'll talk to you after the results tomorrow night. i'll talk to you after the results tomorrow night.
rubio has got his angels. christie has got his angels. jeb bush has got a lot of money in the super pac. i don't know what he's got in the campaign. remember this. there still is one unfunded candidate from that side. and his name is donald trump. he's pushing this populist message. it may be effective. i have no way of knowing. you can't poll after the debate because, if you talk to somebody on super -- super football -- super bowl sunday, you're not going to get a straight answer. but trump is very clever on this populist card. >> andrew, to your question about donors, they had been moving toward marco rubio, but that movement slowed down as a result of this debate, and it's likely to lengthen the race by encouraging some of these other candidates to stay in the race longer, get fewer -- get less pressure from donors to get out of the race and consolidate behind rubio. because if you have the confidence shaken in the guy who
you for a few days were saying, okay, that's our guy, that's the one who can knock out cruz and trump who the establishment doesn't like, if they're shaky on rubio, that will slow that process down, and i think we're going to see that. >> if trump wins, if, if, if -- these polls are so difficult. if trump wins, and let's say cruz a little bit down in the pack, right. let's say kasich makes a move, just for argument' sake. you may be looking at a very protracted race here in the republican party. so after new hampshire you go to south carolina. you go to florida. and then the sec state. this thing could actually go on for a while. i think that donald trump set that up because he didn't win in ohio. i don't know. different people may be winning different primaries. so this may be much more interesting. and then i must say, i must say, bernie sanders in new hampshire, they basically tied in iowa,
right, hillary and bernie. peggy noonan called it a near-death experience for hillary. >> speaking of protracted races, hillary clinton is on the verge of losing the new hampshire primary. >> that baby could go for quite some time. >> larry, are you talking about going to a brokered convention? >> well, john and i expected to. we're going to tour the east coast, the southeast, who knows. a brokered convention, i don't know. that may be -- we haven't had one in a while. i wouldn't mind, by the way, but no, i just think that -- delegate counts will mount up. >> can i also ask, if donald trump doesn't win in new hampshire, do we throw out the polls from here on out? do we just not understand what people really want? >> yes. if donald trump does not win, that tells us that polling is not capable of capturing the unique phenomenon that is trump. that is to say, a popular phenomenon but not one rooted in
the political system with the kind of political organization and campaign that goes along with that. we haven't seen anything like trump with this level of support across the country and in key states. i also think that, if donald trump loses here, you are going to see a lot of the air go out of the balloon in other states even at the level of polling. whether or not the polling was accurate in terms of forecasting election results. you may see -- donald trump, as larry indicated, he is the self-funder who hasn't stepped up to self-fund yet. he hasn't spent all that much money. people question how serious is he about the race? if he loses in new hampshire, having lost in iowa, i think he, inside himself, gets a lot less serious about the race. >> what do you make of the debate -- go ahead, larry. >> i don't disagree with john. i just want to say this, though. remember, this is a delegate count. you finish second here, you finish second there, you finish second there.
you do get delegates. one guy wins one state and drops down to 7th or 8th. he doesn't get the same volume of delegates. that's the idea of a protracted race that may go on a lot longer than anybody thinks. >> marco rubio may be thinking he was hoping to win third in iowa and take second in new hampshire and then win in south carolina. is that a successful strategy and do you think he has it? which candidate do you think is on the best track given what you just laid out with the delegate count? >> becky, i think that was a plausible strategy. further, the race shifts from proportional allocation of delegates to winner-take-all states in the middle of march. that's when the race was going to get to ohio and florida where marco rubio was counting on all of a sudden going from a case where he was trading small delegate allocation with people to racking up big ones. the strategy is being put into question now. he may have a three, four, five
strategy now. you have to see, then, what are the knock-on effects of new hampshire on south carolina where jeb bush has residual strength. >> larry, larry, larry, listen to me. i need to ask you about hillary clinton for a second and wall street and specifically the debate over the weekend between hillary and bernie over -- she seemed to be sort of defending wall street on "meet the press." there was the debate about the goldman sachs speeches and whether bernie was going to ask for the transcripts. how big of a deal is this? >> i don't think the transcripts are a big deal, andrew. it's something that the sanders' campaign will annoy them with. they have a fundamentally different view. bernie sanders said in the debate on thursday night, the business model of wall street is fraud. hillary clinton does not believe that. and so that's a dividing line. she is saying that she has a better plan, a tougher plan in some ways for regulating wall
street than sanders who says let's break up the big banks. that will persist and sanders will use the fact that the coincidence of her position with her campaign donations and those speaking fees to undermine her, it's worked well so far, but the question is does it work when you get to more diverse states with different electorates. >> he's -- i have to say, he's got her on the run. he's got her on the run. and people may not read the speeches, if they were ever released. if she doesn't release the speeches, it's going create -- it's like this fbi investigation. what's really going on inside there? you know, i think sanders is very clever man. i don't agree with his politics, he's very clever. i think hillary was unprepared for this line of attack. why, i don't know. >> "snl" was good for him over the weekend. >> and donald trump is the conservative populous. bernie sanders is the socialist populous. and we'll see just how weird it's going to be up here in new
let's get down to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer joins us. jim, i'm so sick of tired how oil goes is how equities goes. tell us there's something else for us to look at today. >> i don't know. kind of got me there. look, obviously there's a giant re-evaluation of tech after tableau data and linkedin, nobody is saying it's time to buy these stocks -- very few people. what's happened is people just want to get out in the worst way. it doesn't matter. this is not a bottom yet. i do think that oil is hurting because there's just a lot of behind-the-scenes debt issues. a lot of people worry about maturities. you listened to that great debate you had. fantastic stuff from mr. --
professor siegel and it feels like, you know what? let's stay away from now. even siegel used the word volatility, which is code for going lower. >> jim, one of the things we talked about earlier, i forget who said this one of our equities guys was saying with the selloff in technology, that was the last step down on what he sees as a correction, not a bear market. does that make sense to you? >> does in a way. the average stock is down so much from its high. away from that, the big issue is why should we buy? i go back over a lot of the banks this weekend. and i just come back and say, listen, why should we buy? the fed may not raise. i look over tech. why should we buy? we had all those great quarters, it didn't mean a thing. i look at the airlines, i say why should we buy? they were unbelievably good earnings, they don't seem to -- i come back and say clorox, maybe i want to buy that. >> why? >> because great yield, great quarter. and does feel like kimberly,
which is when you have these situations where you get 3, 3.5% yield, people like coca-cola it looks like the euro is starting to get stronger. you're lapping year over year decent euro versus dollar. those are the places to go. what that says is, of course, people think there's a recession, whether there will be one or not. >> jim, we're out of time, you're happy to see the broncos win. >> i love "d," i love to see defense. it's great to see peyton won. >> great go out on a high note. >> we'll see you in a few minutes. coming up, the stories you need to watch as we count down to the opening bell. g reat rate. reat rate. it's a fact. kind of like vacations equal getting carried away. more proactive selling. what do you think michal? i agree. let's get out there. let's meet these people.
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and building customer loyalty. digital works for retail. let's talk about how digital works for your business. ♪ it's been a busy monday morning with global markets under pressure. among the things still to come, all chipolte stores will be closed until 3:00 p.m. as the company hosts a satellite meeting with all 60,000 staffers across the country. chipolte will discuss what happened with its e. coli and neurovirus outbreaks and what it plans to do to recover. if you're looking to go there for lunch, you might have to
find someplace else to go. >> the eia will reduce its monthly productivity report for seven key regions. and earnings central still in full swing. the names set to report after the bell, yelp and 21st century. >> thank you very much for joining us. we'll see you back here tomorrow. right now time for "squawk on the street." ♪ congratulations to the super bowl champion denver broncos. what a game last night. good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber. markets are in no mood to celebrate after friday's punishing session. a week where we will get 60 s&p earnings. yellen on the hill wednesday and thursday. concerns about the banks particularly acute. the ten-year yield around 1.8. oil just hanging on to 30. ou